{"id":113649,"date":"2026-08-20T00:31:47","date_gmt":"2026-08-19T22:31:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=113649"},"modified":"2026-08-19T16:34:17","modified_gmt":"2026-08-19T14:34:17","slug":"alexandre-lemoine-svet-na-pokraji-novych-zavodu-v-jadernem-zbrojeni","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/08\/20\/alexandre-lemoine-svet-na-pokraji-novych-zavodu-v-jadernem-zbrojeni\/","title":{"rendered":"Alexandre Lemoine: Sv\u011bt na pokraji nov\u00fdch z\u00e1vod\u016f v jadern\u00e9m zbrojen\u00ed"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

Jadern\u00e1 rovnov\u00e1ha se rychle m\u011bn\u00ed. Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty a Rusko ji\u017e nejsou v\u00e1z\u00e1ny \u017e\u00e1dnou smlouvou, \u010c\u00edna posiluje sv\u016fj arzen\u00e1l, zat\u00edmco Japonsko a Ji\u017en\u00ed Korea zpochyb\u0148uj\u00ed tabu obklopuj\u00edc\u00ed jadern\u00e9 zbran\u011b. Odborn\u00edci varuj\u00ed, \u017ee nov\u00e9 z\u00e1vody ve zbrojen\u00ed by mohly m\u00edt katastrof\u00e1ln\u00ed n\u00e1sledky.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Zat\u00edmco Soul a Tokio zva\u017euj\u00ed po\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed vlastn\u00edch jadern\u00fdch zbran\u00ed, smlouva New START je minulost\u00ed a Peking odm\u00edt\u00e1 jak\u00fdkoli dialog o omezen\u00ed zbrojen\u00ed.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Sv\u011bt se nev\u011bdomky dost\u00e1v\u00e1 do\u00a0<\/span>nov\u00fdch z\u00e1vod\u016f v jadern\u00e9m zbrojen\u00ed<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, p\u00ed\u0161e\u00a0<\/span>Washington Post<\/span><\/em>\u00a0.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

S t\u00edm, jak vypr\u0161\u00ed platnost smluv vyjednan\u00fdch po cel\u00e1 desetilet\u00ed, st\u00e1ty, kter\u00e9 kdysi odm\u00edtly jadern\u00e9 zbran\u011b, p\u0159ehodnocuj\u00ed sv\u016fj postoj. Hodiny soudn\u00e9ho dne ukazuj\u00ed\u00a0<\/span>85 sekund<\/span><\/a>\u00a0do p\u016flnoci, co\u017e je nejbli\u017e\u0161\u00ed zaznamenan\u00fd bod, jak\u00fd kdy byl zaznamen\u00e1n.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty a Rusko, kter\u00e9 dohromady vlastn\u00ed 86 % sv\u011btov\u00e9ho jadern\u00e9ho arzen\u00e1lu, nejsou poprv\u00e9 od roku 1972 v\u00e1z\u00e1ny \u017e\u00e1dnou dohodou o omezen\u00ed zbrojen\u00ed. Smlouva New START, kterou v roce 2010 podepsal Barack Obama a v roce 2021 prodlou\u017eil Joe Biden, vypr\u0161ela v \u00fanoru. Donald Trump prohl\u00e1sil, \u017ee m\u00e1 v \u00famyslu uzav\u0159\u00edt v\u00fdhodn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed dohodu.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

V multipol\u00e1rn\u00edm sv\u011bt\u011b ztr\u00e1c\u00ed bilater\u00e1ln\u00ed kontrola zbrojen\u00ed sv\u016fj v\u00fdznam. \u010c\u00edna, kter\u00e1 vlastn\u00ed v\u00edce ne\u017e 600 hlavic, nad\u00e1le posiluje sv\u00e9 kapacity a odm\u00edt\u00e1 se \u00fa\u010dastnit jedn\u00e1n\u00ed se Spojen\u00fdmi st\u00e1ty a Ruskem.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Odhaduje<\/span><\/a>\u00a0se, \u017ee severokorejsk\u00fd arzen\u00e1l\u00a0obsahuje 50 sestaven\u00fdch hlavic a dostatek \u0161t\u011bpn\u00e9ho materi\u00e1lu k v\u00fdrob\u011b dal\u0161\u00edch 90. Od roku 2019 v\u0161ak s Pchjongjangem neprob\u011bhla \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e1 jedn\u00e1n\u00ed.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Rostouc\u00ed obavy o spolehlivost americk\u00fdch bezpe\u010dnostn\u00edch z\u00e1ruk tla\u010d\u00ed Ji\u017en\u00ed Koreu a Japonsko k otev\u0159en\u00e9 diskusi o kdysi nemysliteln\u00e9 ot\u00e1zce: v\u00fdvoji vlastn\u00edch jadern\u00fdch zbran\u00ed.\u00a0<\/span>Podle<\/span><\/a>\u00a0leto\u0161n\u00edch pr\u016fzkum\u016f ve\u0159ejn\u00e9ho m\u00edn\u011bn\u00ed t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 70 % jihokorejsk\u00fdch ob\u010dan\u016f podporuje v\u00fdvoj vlastn\u00ed bomby.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Japonsko ofici\u00e1ln\u011b nad\u00e1le dodr\u017euje sv\u00e9\u00a0<\/span>t\u0159i nejadern\u00e9 principy<\/span><\/a>\u00a0: nehromadit, nevyr\u00e1b\u011bt a nepovolit rozm\u00edst\u011bn\u00ed jadern\u00fdch zbran\u00ed na sv\u00e9m \u00fazem\u00ed. Premi\u00e9rka Sanae Takai\u010di v\u0161ak za\u010dala m\u011bnit\u00a0<\/span>r\u00e9toriku<\/span><\/a>\u00a0a ministr obrany \u0160ind\u017eir\u00f3 Koizumi\u00a0<\/span>zah\u00e1jil<\/span><\/a>\u00a0\u0161ir\u0161\u00ed debatu o zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed v\u00fddaj\u016f na obranu, \u010d\u00edm\u017e prolomil p\u0159evl\u00e1daj\u00edc\u00ed tabu.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

N\u011bkte\u0159\u00ed zast\u00e1nci\u00a0<\/span>realistick\u00e9ho p\u0159\u00edstupu<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, \u201ejadern\u00ed optimist\u00e9\u201c, se domn\u00edvaj\u00ed, \u017ee roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed okruhu jadern\u00fdch mocnost\u00ed by mohlo pos\u00edlit glob\u00e1ln\u00ed stabilitu. Poukazuj\u00ed na to, \u017ee studen\u00e1 v\u00e1lka nikdy nep\u0159erostla v jadern\u00fd konflikt. Nav\u00edc dr\u017een\u00ed jadern\u00fdch zbran\u00ed Indi\u00ed a P\u00e1kist\u00e1nem br\u00e1n\u00ed tomu, aby se hrani\u010dn\u00ed st\u0159ety p\u0159ehouply do tot\u00e1ln\u00ed v\u00e1lky.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Realist\u00e9, \u0159\u00eddic\u00ed se stejnou logikou, tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee nuklearizace Japonska a Ji\u017en\u00ed Koreje by vytvo\u0159ila paritu s \u010c\u00ednou a Severn\u00ed Koreou, co\u017e by Spojen\u00fdm st\u00e1t\u016fm umo\u017enilo omezit jejich vojenskou p\u0159\u00edtomnost v Asii.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u0160\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed zbran\u00ed v\u0161ak nestabilitu zvy\u0161uje, m\u00edsto aby ji sni\u017eovalo. \u010c\u00edm v\u00edce lid\u00ed m\u00e1 p\u0159\u00edstup k \u010derven\u00e9mu tla\u010d\u00edtku, t\u00edm v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed je riziko chyby nebo \u0161patn\u00e9ho v\u00fdpo\u010dtu.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Balistick\u00e1 st\u0159ela odp\u00e1len\u00e1 ze Severn\u00ed Koreje nebo \u010c\u00edny m\u016f\u017ee dos\u00e1hnout Washingtonu za 30 minut a Soulu nebo Tokia za m\u00e9n\u011b ne\u017e 15 minut. Tak kr\u00e1tk\u00e9 \u010dasov\u00e9 r\u00e1mce zvy\u0161uj\u00ed riziko odvetn\u00e9ho \u00faderu, o kter\u00e9m se rozhodne b\u011bhem n\u011bkolika minut.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Rozs\u00e1hl\u00e1 jedn\u00e1n\u00ed o odzbrojen\u00ed se zdaj\u00ed b\u00fdt nepravd\u011bpodobn\u00e1. Nejrealisti\u010dt\u011bj\u0161\u00ed cestou jsou opat\u0159en\u00ed k budov\u00e1n\u00ed d\u016fv\u011bry, kter\u00e1 by mohla sn\u00ed\u017eit hrozbu Armagedonu.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

V ide\u00e1ln\u00edm p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b by se jadern\u00e9 mocnosti mohly dobrovoln\u011b vz\u00e1jemn\u011b informovat o nadch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00edch rozs\u00e1hl\u00fdch testech, odpalech raket a cvi\u010den\u00edch a z\u00e1rove\u0148 sd\u00edlet data o sv\u00fdch arzen\u00e1lech a umo\u017e\u0148ovat mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed inspekce.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Skromn\u00fdm, ale z\u00e1sadn\u00edm krokem by bylo zaveden\u00ed p\u0159\u00edm\u00fdch vojensk\u00fdch komunika\u010dn\u00edch kan\u00e1l\u016f mezi v\u0161emi jadern\u00fdmi mocnostmi, v\u010detn\u011b \u010c\u00edny. Obchodn\u00ed a technologick\u00e9 neshody nesm\u00ed br\u00e1nit udr\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed otev\u0159en\u00fdch komunika\u010dn\u00edch linek.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

To by v\u0161ak znamenalo uzn\u00e1n\u00ed Severn\u00ed Koreje za\u00a0<\/span>de facto jadern\u00fd st\u00e1t<\/span><\/a>\u00a0. Nejde o form\u00e1ln\u00ed uzn\u00e1n\u00ed jej\u00edho jadern\u00e9ho programu ani o upu\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed od c\u00edl\u016f odzbrojen\u00ed, ale pouze o konstatov\u00e1n\u00ed.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

P\u0159ed \u010dty\u0159iceti lety, v \u0159\u00edjnu 1986, se Ronald Reagan a Michail Gorba\u010dov\u00a0<\/span>nejv\u00edce p\u0159ibl\u00ed\u017eili k dosa\u017een\u00ed<\/span><\/a>\u00a0dohody o \u00fapln\u00e9 likvidaci jadern\u00fdch zbran\u00ed. Tato p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitost u\u017e promarnila. Ale i skromn\u00e9 \u200b\u200b\u00fasil\u00ed by mohlo hrozbu odvr\u00e1tit a vr\u00e1tit \u010das zp\u011bt.<\/span><\/p>\n

Alexandre Lemoine<\/span><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Jadern\u00e1 rovnov\u00e1ha se rychle m\u011bn\u00ed. Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty a Rusko ji\u017e nejsou v\u00e1z\u00e1ny \u017e\u00e1dnou smlouvou, \u010c\u00edna…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":113650,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[276,40,338],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/113649"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=113649"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/113649\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/113650"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=113649"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=113649"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=113649"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}