{"id":113605,"date":"2026-08-20T00:12:27","date_gmt":"2026-08-19T22:12:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=113605"},"modified":"2026-08-19T09:29:45","modified_gmt":"2026-08-19T07:29:45","slug":"dowd-pocet-lidi-se-zdravotnim-postizenim-v-usa-dosahl-v-cervenci-noveho-maxima-37-milionu-coz-predstavuje-narust-o-23-od-unora-2021","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/08\/20\/dowd-pocet-lidi-se-zdravotnim-postizenim-v-usa-dosahl-v-cervenci-noveho-maxima-37-milionu-coz-predstavuje-narust-o-23-od-unora-2021\/","title":{"rendered":"Dowd: Po\u010det lid\u00ed se zdravotn\u00edm posti\u017een\u00edm v USA dos\u00e1hl v \u010dervenci nov\u00e9ho maxima 37 milion\u016f, co\u017e p\u0159edstavuje n\u00e1r\u016fst o 23 % od \u00fanora 2021"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Nejnov\u011bj\u0161\u00ed \u00fadaje z \u00da\u0159adu statistiky pr\u00e1ce ukazuj\u00ed, \u017ee po\u010det Ameri\u010dan\u016f ve v\u011bku 16 let a star\u0161\u00edch, kte\u0159\u00ed hl\u00e1s\u00ed zdravotn\u00ed posti\u017een\u00ed, dos\u00e1hl nov\u00e9ho historick\u00e9ho maxima p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 37 milion\u016f. K \u010dervenci 2026 \u010dinil tento \u00fadaj v s\u00e9rii Current Population Survey 37 029 000.<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0Nejedn\u00e1 se o zaokrouhlovac\u00ed chybu ani o sez\u00f3nn\u00ed v\u00fdkyvy. Jde o pokra\u010dov\u00e1n\u00ed trendu, kter\u00fd za\u010dal rostouc\u00ed p\u0159ed v\u00edce ne\u017e p\u011bti lety a od t\u00e9 doby se nevr\u00e1til k pr\u016fm\u011bru.<\/span><\/p>\n

Sleduji tuto s\u00e9rii od za\u010d\u00e1tku pandemie COVIDu.\u00a0<\/span>Grafy jsou ve\u0159ejn\u011b dostupn\u00e9 ji\u017e l\u00e9ta<\/span><\/a>\u00a0na webov\u00fdch str\u00e1nk\u00e1ch Phinance Technologies a v opakuj\u00edc\u00edch se vl\u00e1knech na X. M\u011bs\u00edc co m\u011bs\u00edc celkov\u00fd po\u010det lid\u00ed se zdravotn\u00edm posti\u017een\u00edm pomalu roste. Od stagnace p\u0159ed rokem 2020 a\u017e do za\u010d\u00e1tku roku 2021 byla \u010d\u00edsla relativn\u011b stabiln\u00ed. Pak se n\u011bco zm\u011bnilo.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00danor 2021 p\u0159edstavuje jasn\u00fd bod zlomu.\u00a0<\/span><\/strong>Tempo r\u016fstu se posunulo<\/span><\/a>\u00a0k nov\u00e9, strm\u011bj\u0161\u00ed k\u0159ivce \u2013 odchylka 3 a\u017e 4 sigma od p\u0159edchoz\u00edho trendu.\u00a0<\/span>V n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00edch letech pr\u016fzkum p\u0159idal sedm milion\u016f lid\u00ed.<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0R\u016fst takov\u00e9ho rozsahu u zral\u00e9 populace nen\u00ed norm\u00e1ln\u00ed st\u00e1rnut\u00ed, nen\u00ed to izolovan\u00fd \u201edlouh\u00fd COVID\u201c ani postupn\u00e1 sociologick\u00e1 zm\u011bna. Objevil se n\u00e1hle. Prob\u00edh\u00e1. A tyt\u00e9\u017e agentury ve\u0159ejn\u00e9ho zdrav\u00ed, kter\u00e9 byly po l\u00e9ta posedl\u00e9 v\u0161emi ostatn\u00edmi metrikami, ho nad\u00e1le odm\u00edtaj\u00ed jako \u0161um v pozad\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Dovolte mi, abych se vyj\u00e1d\u0159il k p\u0159edv\u00eddateln\u00fdm n\u00e1mitk\u00e1m, kter\u00e9 se objevuj\u00ed poka\u017ed\u00e9, kdy\u017e jsou tato \u010d\u00edsla zve\u0159ejn\u011bna. Zaprv\u00e9: \u201eTohle je jen podvod. Lid\u00e9 zneu\u017e\u00edvaj\u00ed d\u00e1vky v invalidit\u011b.\u201c\u00a0<\/span>Toto tvrzen\u00ed neobstoj\u00ed p\u0159i z\u00e1kladn\u00edm zkoum\u00e1n\u00ed zdroje dat. Nejedn\u00e1 se o \u017e\u00e1dosti o d\u00e1vky v r\u00e1mci programu Social Security Disability Insurgency (SSDI). Nejedn\u00e1 se<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0o schv\u00e1len\u00ed SSDI, kter\u00e1 podl\u00e9haj\u00ed zpo\u017ed\u011bn\u00edm, vy\u017eaduj\u00ed l\u00e9ka\u0159sk\u00e1 posouzen\u00ed a jsou ovlivn\u011bna nahromad\u011bn\u00fdmi nevy\u0159\u00edzen\u00fdmi p\u0159\u00edpady a motiva\u010dn\u00edmi efekty.\u00a0<\/span>Jedn\u00e1 se o Current Population Survey (CPS), stejn\u00fd m\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u00ed pr\u016fzkum dom\u00e1cnost\u00ed, kter\u00fd poskytuje \u00fadaje o m\u00ed\u0159e nezam\u011bstnanosti a \u00fa\u010dasti na trhu pr\u00e1ce.<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0Ka\u017ed\u00fd m\u011bs\u00edc je dotazov\u00e1no p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 60 000 dom\u00e1cnost\u00ed. Je jim polo\u017eeno \u0161est jednoduch\u00fdch ot\u00e1zek t\u00fdkaj\u00edc\u00edch se v\u00fdznamn\u00fdch obt\u00ed\u017e\u00ed se sluchem, zrakem, soust\u0159ed\u011bn\u00edm\/pam\u011bt\u00ed\/rozhodov\u00e1n\u00edm, ch\u016fz\u00ed nebo ch\u016fz\u00ed do schod\u016f, obl\u00e9k\u00e1n\u00edm nebo koup\u00e1n\u00edm a vy\u0159izov\u00e1n\u00edm poch\u016fzek bez dozoru. Jak\u00e1koli odpov\u011b\u010f \u201eano\u201c m\u00e1 za n\u00e1sledek, \u017ee je dan\u00e1 osoba pro statistick\u00e9 \u00fa\u010dely klasifikov\u00e1na jako osoba se zdravotn\u00edm posti\u017een\u00edm.<\/span><\/p>\n

To jsem podrobn\u011b vysv\u011btlil p\u0159ed lety ve vl\u00e1knech, kter\u00e1 se st\u00e1le daj\u00ed snadno naj\u00edt.\u00a0<\/span>Datov\u00e9 \u0159ady se shroma\u017e\u010fuj\u00ed v re\u00e1ln\u00e9m \u010dase, nejsou zalo\u017eeny na \u017e\u00e1dostech a nemaj\u00ed nic spole\u010dn\u00e9ho s n\u00e1roky na d\u00e1vky. Ot\u00e1zky z\u016fstaly od roku 2008 nezm\u011bn\u011bny.<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0Vzorce odpov\u011bd\u00ed nevedou n\u00e1hle k milion\u016fm nov\u00fdch respondent\u016f se zdravotn\u00edm posti\u017een\u00edm jen proto, \u017ee se zm\u011bnilo politick\u00e9 klima. Kdy\u017e stejn\u00fd pr\u016fzkum, na kter\u00fd se market\u00e9\u0159i, banky a Feder\u00e1ln\u00ed rezervn\u00ed syst\u00e9m spol\u00e9haj\u00ed p\u0159i hled\u00e1n\u00ed sign\u00e1l\u016f z trhu pr\u00e1ce, ukazuje v\u00edcelet\u00fd, multisigma rozd\u00edl ve v\u00fdskytu zdravotn\u00edho posti\u017een\u00ed, je zodpov\u011bdnou reakc\u00ed pro\u0161et\u0159it, nikoli odm\u00edtnout.<\/span><\/p>\n

Za druh\u00e9, \u201eJsou to neleg\u00e1ln\u00ed imigranti, kdo zvy\u0161uj\u00ed po\u010det p\u0159\u00edpad\u016f.\u201c Tento argument je tak\u00e9 slab\u00fd.\u00a0<\/span>O neleg\u00e1ln\u00edch imigrantech je ji\u017e dlouho zn\u00e1mo, \u017ee se nedostate\u010dn\u011b \u00fa\u010dastn\u00ed vl\u00e1dn\u00edch pr\u016fzkum\u016f nebo se jim zcela vyh\u00fdbaj\u00ed ze strachu z odhalen\u00ed, rizika deportace nebo obecn\u00e9 ned\u016fv\u011bry k \u00fa\u0159ad\u016fm<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0. Nestoj\u00ed ve front\u011b, aby odpov\u011bd\u011bli na podrobn\u00e9 ot\u00e1zky, a\u0165 u\u017e telefonicky nebo osobn\u011b, ohledn\u011b zdravotn\u00edch omezen\u00ed \u010dlen\u016f sv\u00e9 dom\u00e1cnosti. Sp\u00ed\u0161e jsou tyto populace v pr\u016fzkumu systematicky nedostate\u010dn\u011b zastoupeny ve srovn\u00e1n\u00ed se skute\u010dnost\u00ed.\u00a0<\/span>Prudk\u00fd a trval\u00fd n\u00e1r\u016fst hl\u00e1\u0161en\u00fdch zdravotn\u00edch posti\u017een\u00ed za\u010dal v \u00fanoru 2021, tedy dlouho p\u0159ed ned\u00e1vn\u00fdm velk\u00fdm n\u00e1r\u016fstem kontakt\u016f na hranic\u00edch<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0, a pokra\u010duje zp\u016fsobem, kter\u00fd nen\u00ed v souladu s jednoduch\u00fdmi demografick\u00fdmi toky. Data nepodporuj\u00ed tvrzen\u00ed, \u017ee n\u00e1r\u016fst m\u00edry zdravotn\u00edho posti\u017een\u00ed je artefaktem neleg\u00e1ln\u00edho p\u0159ist\u011bhovalectv\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Zdravotnick\u00e9 org\u00e1ny a m\u00e9dia tento sign\u00e1l do zna\u010dn\u00e9 m\u00edry ignorovaly. Nebylo provedeno \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 seri\u00f3zn\u00ed a transparentn\u00ed vy\u0161et\u0159ov\u00e1n\u00ed, pro\u010d m\u00edra invalidity na za\u010d\u00e1tku roku 2021 tak n\u00e1hle zm\u011bnila sm\u011br a z\u016fstala zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00e1.\u00a0<\/span>Do\u010dasn\u00e1 vysv\u011btlen\u00ed, jako je samotn\u00fd COVID, lockdowny nebo psychologick\u00e9 dopady izolace, selh\u00e1vaj\u00ed v testu na\u010dasov\u00e1n\u00ed a rozsahu. Virus ji\u017e v roce 2020 cirkuloval, ani\u017e by zp\u016fsobil tuto trvalou odchylku. Nejv\u00fdznamn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed zrychlen\u00ed se shodovalo s masivn\u00ed o\u010dkovac\u00ed kampan\u00ed a n\u00e1sledn\u00fdm povinn\u00fdm o\u010dkov\u00e1n\u00edm na pracovi\u0161ti.<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0Korelace se nerovn\u00e1 kauzalit\u011b; to si neust\u00e1le p\u0159ipom\u00edn\u00e1me. To m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt pravda, ale kdy\u017e je v kr\u00e1tk\u00e9m obdob\u00ed nasazen nov\u00fd l\u00e9ka\u0159sk\u00fd z\u00e1sah u stovek milion\u016f dosp\u011bl\u00fdch v produktivn\u00edm v\u011bku a nez\u00e1visl\u00fd, vysokofrekven\u010dn\u00ed pr\u016fzkum zdrav\u00ed populace zaznamen\u00e1 zm\u011bnu re\u017eimu v multi-sigma dom\u00e9n\u011b p\u0159esn\u011b v tomto okam\u017eiku, d\u016fkazn\u00ed b\u0159emeno se p\u0159esouv\u00e1. Agentury, kter\u00e9 po l\u00e9ta po\u017eadovaly, aby byla vy\u0161et\u0159ena ka\u017ed\u00e1 jin\u00e1 korelace, n\u00e1hle ztr\u00e1cej\u00ed z\u00e1jem.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ekonomick\u00e9 d\u016fsledky nejsou abstraktn\u00ed.\u00a0<\/span>V\u00edce ne\u017e 37 milion\u016f lid\u00ed hl\u00e1s\u00edc\u00edch zdravotn\u00ed posti\u017een\u00ed p\u0159edstavuje trvale v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed pod\u00edl populace, kter\u00e1 \u010del\u00ed p\u0159ek\u00e1\u017ek\u00e1m v pln\u00e9 \u00fa\u010dasti.<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0\u00da\u010dast lid\u00ed se zdravotn\u00edm posti\u017een\u00edm na trhu pr\u00e1ce je i nad\u00e1le v\u00fdrazn\u011b ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e u osob bez posti\u017een\u00ed. Zam\u011bstnavatel\u00e9 \u010del\u00ed zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00e9 absenci a vy\u0161\u0161\u00edm n\u00e1klad\u016fm. Poji\u0161\u0165ovac\u00ed fondy mus\u00ed absorbovat zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00e9 n\u00e1roky na d\u00e1vky. Finan\u010dn\u00ed tlak na programy soci\u00e1ln\u00edho zabezpe\u010den\u00ed roste, i kdy\u017e tento konkr\u00e9tn\u00ed pr\u016fzkum nen\u00ed prim\u00e1rn\u00edm zdrojem n\u00e1rok\u016f na d\u00e1vky. To v\u0161e se d\u011bje na pozad\u00ed demografick\u00e9ho st\u00e1rnut\u00ed, u kter\u00e9ho se ji\u017e o\u010dek\u00e1valo, \u017ee postupn\u011b zv\u00fd\u0161\u00ed prevalenci zdravotn\u00edho posti\u017een\u00ed \u2013 ale ne tak prudk\u00fdm tempem, jak\u00e9 je pozorov\u00e1no od za\u010d\u00e1tku roku 2021.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tyto grafy publikuji u\u017e l\u00e9ta: celkov\u00e1 populace ve v\u011bku 16 a v\u00edce let, podskupina civiln\u00ed pracovn\u00ed s\u00edly, mu\u017ei, \u017eeny, zam\u011bstnan\u00ed versus nezam\u011bstnan\u00ed. Tento vzorec je konzistentn\u00ed. Ob\u010das doch\u00e1z\u00ed ke zpomalen\u00ed tempa zm\u011bn, n\u00e1sledovan\u00e9mu dal\u0161\u00edm prudk\u00fdm n\u00e1r\u016fstem.\u00a0<\/span>Zlom v \u00fanoru 2021 z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 ur\u010duj\u00edc\u00edm rysem.<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0Posun trendu o 3 a\u017e 4 sigma nen\u00ed n\u011bco, co by seri\u00f3zn\u00ed analytici jen tak ignorovali. Je to druh sign\u00e1lu, kter\u00fd by v jak\u00e9koli jin\u00e9 oblasti \u2013 trhy, epidemiologii, in\u017een\u00fdrstv\u00ed \u2013 spustil okam\u017eit\u00e9 forenzn\u00ed vy\u0161et\u0159ov\u00e1n\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Zdravotnick\u00e9 org\u00e1ny zvolily jin\u00fd p\u0159\u00edstup. Data se st\u00e1le hromad\u00ed. Pr\u016fzkumy v cel\u00e9 populaci p\u0159in\u00e1\u0161ej\u00ed st\u00e1le rostouc\u00ed \u010d\u00edsla. Ot\u00e1zky kladen\u00e9 dom\u00e1cnostem se nezm\u011bnily.\u00a0<\/span>Metodika je stejn\u00e1 jako ta, kter\u00e1 se pou\u017e\u00edv\u00e1 pro ofici\u00e1ln\u00ed statistiky zam\u011bstnanosti, kter\u00e9 ka\u017ed\u00fd m\u011bs\u00edc ovliv\u0148uj\u00ed trhy. Nicm\u00e9n\u011b \u0159ada \u00fadaj\u016f o pracovn\u00ed neschopnosti je vn\u00edm\u00e1na sp\u00ed\u0161e jako nep\u0159\u00edjemnost ne\u017e jako varovn\u00fd sign\u00e1l.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Z\u00e1v\u011br vyvozen\u00fd z dat je jasn\u00fd. Na\u010dasov\u00e1n\u00ed, rozsah, koncentrace v d\u0159\u00edve zdrav\u00e9 populaci v produktivn\u00edm v\u011bku a absence alternativn\u00edch vysv\u011btlen\u00ed ukazuj\u00ed na to, \u017ee o\u010dkovac\u00ed kampa\u0148 proti COVID-19 je jedn\u00edm z hlavn\u00edch faktor\u016f nadsazen\u00e9ho po\u010dtu \u017e\u00e1dost\u00ed o d\u00e1vky v invalidit\u011b.<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0Toto je hodnocen\u00ed, kter\u00e9 jsem setrval i b\u011bhem aktualizace \u00fadaj\u016f. Ignorov\u00e1n\u00ed p\u0159etrv\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00ed multisigma odchylky v kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e9m vl\u00e1dn\u00edm pr\u016fzkumu tuto odchylku nezmiz\u00ed. Pouze zaji\u0161\u0165uje, \u017ee se d\u016fsledky zhor\u0161\u00ed, zat\u00edmco instituce se d\u00edvaj\u00ed jinam.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u010c\u00edslo 37 milion\u016f v \u010dervenci 2026 je pouze nejnov\u011bj\u0161\u00edm potvrzen\u00edm.<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0Trend, kter\u00fd za\u010dal v \u00fanoru 2021, nebyl zdravotnick\u00fdmi org\u00e1ny ani vysv\u011btlen, ani dostate\u010dn\u011b d\u016fkladn\u011b vy\u0161et\u0159en, a ani naopak. Dokud se nic nezm\u011bn\u00ed, data budou i nad\u00e1le mluvit sama za sebe \u2013 a\u0165 u\u017e ti, kte\u0159\u00ed jsou u moci, cht\u011bj\u00ed naslouchat, nebo ne.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201eSly\u0161te toto, vy po\u0161etil\u00ed a nerozumn\u00ed, vy, kte\u0159\u00ed m\u00e1te o\u010di, ale nevid\u00edte, vy, kte\u0159\u00ed m\u00e1te u\u0161i, ale nesly\u0161\u00edte.\u201c\u00a0<\/span><\/em>Jeremi\u00e1\u0161 5:21<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

***<\/span><\/p>\n

Od Tylera Durdena
\n<\/span><\/em>Napsal Ed Dowd prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm Beyond The Narrative,<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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Zdroj<\/span><\/a><\/span><\/h3>\n

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Nejnov\u011bj\u0161\u00ed \u00fadaje z \u00da\u0159adu statistiky pr\u00e1ce ukazuj\u00ed, \u017ee po\u010det Ameri\u010dan\u016f ve v\u011bku 16 let a…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":113606,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[11438,37,9976],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/113605"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=113605"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/113605\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/113606"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=113605"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=113605"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=113605"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}