{"id":113449,"date":"2026-08-18T00:18:32","date_gmt":"2026-08-17T22:18:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=113449"},"modified":"2026-08-17T09:21:06","modified_gmt":"2026-08-17T07:21:06","slug":"hormuzska-krize-se-nyni-stala-krizi-rafinerskych-kapacit-a-pristupu-k-rafinovanym-produktum","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/08\/18\/hormuzska-krize-se-nyni-stala-krizi-rafinerskych-kapacit-a-pristupu-k-rafinovanym-produktum\/","title":{"rendered":"Hormuzsk\u00e1 krize se nyn\u00ed stala kriz\u00ed rafin\u00e9rsk\u00fdch kapacit a p\u0159\u00edstupu k rafinovan\u00fdm produkt\u016fm"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Hormuzsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv ji\u017e nelze posuzovat pouze na z\u00e1klad\u011b po\u010dtu barel\u016f ropy, kter\u00e9 j\u00edm prot\u00e9kaj\u00ed, nebo ceny ropy. Rostouc\u00ed rozd\u00edl mezi cenami rafinovan\u00fdch produkt\u016f a ropy, m\u011bn\u00edc\u00ed se chov\u00e1n\u00ed \u010c\u00edny a rostouc\u00ed tlak na americkou ekonomiku nazna\u010duj\u00ed, \u017ee pokra\u010dov\u00e1n\u00ed v\u00e1lky povede k vysok\u00fdm n\u00e1klad\u016fm pro Washington, co\u017e by mohlo m\u00edt nep\u0159edv\u00eddateln\u00e9 d\u016fsledky pro zast\u00e1nce v\u00e1lky s bl\u00ed\u017e\u00edc\u00edmi se volbami v polovin\u011b volebn\u00edho obdob\u00ed.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

P\u0159i hodnocen\u00ed bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed situace v Persk\u00e9m z\u00e1livu a Hormuzsk\u00e9m pr\u016flivu obvykle p\u0159itahuj\u00ed nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed pozornost dva ukazatele: objem ropy p\u0159epravovan\u00e9 pr\u016flivem a glob\u00e1ln\u00ed ceny ropy. Tyto dva ukazatele jsou sice d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9, ale neposta\u010duj\u00ed k m\u011b\u0159en\u00ed skute\u010dn\u00e9ho rozsahu energetick\u00e9 krize. Rozhoduj\u00edc\u00edm ukazatelem je situace rafinovan\u00fdch ropn\u00fdch produkt\u016f, v\u010detn\u011b nafty, benzinu a petroleje, kter\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edmo souvisej\u00ed s dopravou, v\u00fdrobou a ka\u017edodenn\u00edm \u017eivotem obyvatelstva. Za sou\u010dasn\u00fdch podm\u00ednek dos\u00e1hl cenov\u00fd rozd\u00edl mezi rafinovan\u00fdmi produkty a ropou, zn\u00e1m\u00fd jako \u201ecrack spread\u201c, neb\u00fdval\u00e9 \u00farovn\u011b, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e cenov\u00fd rozd\u00edl u nafty se bl\u00ed\u017e\u00ed 100 dolar\u016fm za barel. Z\u00e1rove\u0148 klesl v\u00fdvoz nafty z Ruska, Bl\u00edzk\u00e9ho v\u00fdchodu a Asie a glob\u00e1ln\u00ed trh \u010del\u00ed st\u00e1le v\u011bt\u0161\u00edmu nedostatku rafinovan\u00fdch produkt\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n

V\u00fdznam tohoto v\u00fdvoje spo\u010d\u00edv\u00e1 ve skute\u010dnosti, \u017ee krize v Hormuzsk\u00e9m pr\u016flivu ji\u017e nen\u00ed jen kriz\u00ed \u201edod\u00e1vek ropy\u201c, ale kriz\u00ed rafin\u00e9rsk\u00e9 kapacity a p\u0159\u00edstupu k rafinovan\u00fdm produkt\u016fm. \u0160kody, kter\u00e9 utrp\u011bly rusk\u00e9 rafinerie b\u011bhem v\u00e1lky na Ukrajin\u011b, naru\u0161en\u00ed provozu rafin\u00e9ri\u00ed v regionu a omezen\u00fd p\u0159\u00edstup k rafin\u00e9rsk\u00fdm surovin\u00e1m v kombinaci se sn\u00ed\u017eenou dopravou v Hormuzsk\u00e9m pr\u016flivu vytvo\u0159ily k\u0159ehk\u00fd dodavatelsk\u00fd \u0159et\u011bzec. V d\u016fsledku toho se Rusk\u00e1 federace, jeden z p\u0159edn\u00edch sv\u011btov\u00fdch dodavatel\u016f benz\u00ednu, nyn\u00ed sama stala dovozcem t\u00e9to komodity. Za t\u011bchto okolnost\u00ed se ceny ropy mohou jevit relativn\u011b m\u00edrn\u00e9 ve srovn\u00e1n\u00ed s rozsahem naru\u0161en\u00ed, zat\u00edmco ceny nafty, benz\u00ednu a petroleje zaznamenaly neb\u00fdval\u00fd n\u00e1r\u016fst. Pr\u00e1v\u011b v t\u00e9to f\u00e1zi se energetick\u00e1 krize p\u0159esouv\u00e1 z finan\u010dn\u00edch trh\u016f do re\u00e1ln\u00e9 ekonomiky. Ned\u00e1vn\u00e9 zpr\u00e1vy rovn\u011b\u017e nazna\u010duj\u00ed p\u0159\u00edsn\u00e1 omezen\u00ed dod\u00e1vek nafty a snahy Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f z\u00edsk\u00e1vat rafin\u00e9rsk\u00e9 suroviny od vzd\u00e1len\u011bj\u0161\u00edch dodavatel\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n

Dal\u0161\u00ed kl\u00ed\u010dovou prom\u011bnnou v t\u00e9to rovnici je chov\u00e1n\u00ed \u010c\u00edny.<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0Ofici\u00e1ln\u00ed data ukazuj\u00ed, \u017ee \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fd dovoz ropy dos\u00e1hl v \u010dervenci 8,41 milionu barel\u016f denn\u011b, a\u010dkoli je to st\u00e1le pod \u00farovn\u00ed lo\u0148sk\u00e9ho roku, a \u017ee \u010c\u00edna absorbovala \u010d\u00e1st tr\u017en\u00edho tlaku b\u011bhem p\u0159edchoz\u00ed f\u00e1ze krize sn\u00ed\u017een\u00edm sv\u00e9 popt\u00e1vky. Na fyzick\u00e9m trhu s ropou v\u0161ak informace z\u00edskan\u00e9 od hlavn\u00edch obchodn\u00edk\u016f zapojen\u00fdch do prodeje ropy z Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu nazna\u010duj\u00ed n\u00e1r\u016fst \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 popt\u00e1vky po rop\u011b v srpnu. A\u010dkoli se tato informace dosud neprojevila v ofici\u00e1ln\u00edch m\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u00edch statistik\u00e1ch ani ve ve\u0159ejn\u00fdch mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edch zpr\u00e1v\u00e1ch, ji\u017e m\u011bla hmatateln\u00fd dopad na trh. Podle t\u011bchto informac\u00ed se v n\u011bkter\u00fdch transakc\u00edch nab\u00eddkov\u00e1 cena n\u00e1klad\u016f zv\u00fd\u0161ila p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b o 2 dolary za barel za jedin\u00fd den. Pokud by tento trend pokra\u010doval, znamenalo by to zv\u00fd\u0161enou konkurenci o dostupn\u00e9 n\u00e1klady a v d\u016fsledku toho zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00fd tlak na cenu surovin pro rafinerie a rafinovan\u00fdch produkt\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tato situace nab\u00fdv\u00e1 na strategick\u00e9m v\u00fdznamu, vezmeme-li v \u00favahu ekonomickou situaci ve Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1tech. R\u016fst americk\u00e9 ekonomiky ve druh\u00e9m \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed roku 2026 klesl na 1,5 % oproti 2,1 % v prvn\u00edm \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed. Mezit\u00edm na finan\u010dn\u00edch trz\u00edch byla aukce 30let\u00fdch americk\u00fdch st\u00e1tn\u00edch dluhopis\u016f v hodnot\u011b 25 miliard dolar\u016f, kter\u00e1 se konala 13. srpna, dokon\u010dena s kurzem 5,216 %, co\u017e je nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed nab\u00eddkov\u00e1 sazba pro tyto cenn\u00e9 pap\u00edry od roku 2001. Z\u00e1rove\u0148 rozpo\u010dtov\u00fd deficit za \u010dervenec dos\u00e1hl 432 miliard dolar\u016f, zat\u00edmco kumulativn\u00ed deficit za fisk\u00e1ln\u00ed rok se bl\u00ed\u017eil 1,8 bilionu dolar\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n

V takov\u00e9m ekonomick\u00e9m kontextu mohou rostouc\u00ed ceny energi\u00ed vyvolat v\u00edcevrstv\u00fd \u0161ok: ceny rafinovan\u00fdch produkt\u016f rostou, inflace z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 vysok\u00e1, Feder\u00e1ln\u00ed rezervn\u00ed syst\u00e9m m\u00e1 omezen\u00fd prostor pro sni\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb a dlouhodob\u00e9 sazby z\u016fst\u00e1vaj\u00ed vysok\u00e9. V d\u016fsledku toho se zvy\u0161uj\u00ed n\u00e1klady na ve\u0159ejn\u00e9 financov\u00e1n\u00ed a obsluhu dluhu. V\u00e1lka proto Washingtonu ukl\u00e1d\u00e1 nejen vojensk\u00e9 n\u00e1klady, ale m\u016f\u017ee tak\u00e9 generovat finan\u010dn\u00ed, infla\u010dn\u00ed a politick\u00e9 n\u00e1klady.<\/span><\/p>\n

V t\u00e9to souvislosti ned\u00e1vn\u00e1 hrozba Donalda Trumpa, \u017ee na \u00cdr\u00e1n vyvine \u201esiln\u00fd ekonomick\u00fd tlak\u201c, pokud bude doprov\u00e1zen zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00fdm tlakem na Hormuzsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv, vytv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed strategick\u00fd rozpor. Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty by sice jist\u011b mohly vyv\u00edjet zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00fd tlak na \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edjmy, ale odvetn\u00e1 reakce by mohla prodlou\u017eit naru\u0161en\u00ed dod\u00e1vek energie, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e by se zna\u010dn\u00e1 \u010d\u00e1st n\u00e1klad\u016f na tento tlak nakonec p\u0159enesla na glob\u00e1ln\u00ed trhy a v dlouhodob\u00e9m horizontu i na americk\u00e9 spot\u0159ebitele.<\/span><\/p>\n

S\u00e1m Trump nyn\u00ed v\u00fdslovn\u011b uznal r\u016fst cen benzinu a ozna\u010dil ho za n\u00e1klady, kter\u00e9 budou muset Ameri\u010dan\u00e9 n\u00e9st, zat\u00edmco ned\u00e1vn\u00e9 zpr\u00e1vy zd\u016fraz\u0148uj\u00ed rostouc\u00ed n\u00e1rodn\u00ed nespokojenost a politick\u00fd tlak pramen\u00edc\u00ed z v\u00e1lky a cen pohonn\u00fdch hmot.<\/span><\/p>\n

A pr\u00e1v\u011b zde se listopadov\u00e9 volby do poloviny volebn\u00edho obdob\u00ed st\u00e1vaj\u00ed pro Washington v\u00e1\u017enou p\u0159ek\u00e1\u017ekou. D\u016fsledky v\u00e1lky, jej\u00edm\u017e c\u00edlem bylo zv\u00fd\u0161it tlak na \u00cdr\u00e1n, se obr\u00e1tily proti nim a nyn\u00ed jsou s bl\u00ed\u017e\u00edc\u00edmi se volbami ot\u00e1zkou cen plynu, inflace, kupn\u00ed s\u00edly a ekonomick\u00fdch v\u00fdsledk\u016f administrativy. V ned\u00e1vn\u00e9m pr\u016fzkumu ve\u0159ejn\u00e9ho m\u00edn\u011bn\u00ed dv\u011b t\u0159etiny Ameri\u010dan\u016f uvedly, \u017ee jsou proti v\u00e1lce, a v\u00fdsledn\u00fd ekonomick\u00fd tlak se stal jednou ze slabin republik\u00e1n\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n

Z tohoto pohledu by budoucnost v\u00e1lky nem\u011bla b\u00fdt posuzov\u00e1na pouze na z\u00e1klad\u011b schopnosti ka\u017ed\u00e9 strany ude\u0159it; nejd\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00edm krit\u00e9riem je jej\u00ed schopnost absorbovat n\u00e1klady na odvetu. Pokud se v\u00e1lka stane v\u00e1lkou vy\u010derp\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00ed, \u010das by se mohl st\u00e1t rozhoduj\u00edc\u00edm faktorem. \u00cdr\u00e1n bude \u010delit zna\u010dn\u00e9mu ekonomick\u00e9mu tlaku, ale Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty budou muset sou\u010dasn\u011b \u0159\u00eddit n\u00e1klady spojen\u00e9 s energi\u00ed, inflac\u00ed, \u00farokov\u00fdmi sazbami, dluhem a volbami. Naopak, pokud se Washington bude sna\u017eit tlak rychle stup\u0148ovat, bude muset akceptovat riziko dal\u0161\u00edch naru\u0161en\u00ed dod\u00e1vek energie a jejich n\u00e1sledn\u00e9 transformace v ekonomick\u00e9 \u0161oky.<\/span><\/p>\n

Rovnice v\u00e1lky se proto p\u0159esouv\u00e1 ze \u201eschopnosti vyv\u00edjet tlak\u201c na \u201eschopnost odolat recipro\u010dn\u00edmu tlaku\u201c. Trump sice m\u016f\u017ee hrozit zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00edm ekonomick\u00e9ho tlaku na \u00cdr\u00e1n, ale \u010d\u00edm v\u00edce se tento tlak p\u0159elije na energetick\u00fd trh a Hormuzsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv, t\u00edm v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed je pravd\u011bpodobnost, \u017ee se to Spojen\u00fdm st\u00e1t\u016fm ekonomicky i volebn\u00edm zp\u016fsobem obr\u00e1t\u00ed proti nim.<\/span><\/p>\n

Snad nejd\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00edm ukazatelem situace v Hormuzsk\u00e9m pr\u016flivu ji\u017e nen\u00ed po\u010det barel\u016f ropy, kter\u00e9 j\u00edm prot\u00e9kaj\u00ed. D\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 je, o kolik dolar\u016f tato krize zvy\u0161uje cenu nafty, benzinu a petroleje a jakou \u010d\u00e1st ekonomick\u00e9 a politick\u00e9 kapacity Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f toto zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed cen absorbuje. V t\u00e9to souvislosti u\u017e v\u00e1lka nen\u00ed jen zkou\u0161kou s\u00edly, kter\u00e1 m\u011b\u0159\u00ed vojenskou p\u0159evahu obou stran; stala se zkou\u0161kou Trumpovy ekonomick\u00e9 a politick\u00e9 odolnosti a\u017e do listopadov\u00fdch voleb.<\/span><\/p>\n

Zdroj: <\/span>Nournews<\/span><\/a>\u00a0<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Hormuzsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv ji\u017e nelze posuzovat pouze na z\u00e1klad\u011b po\u010dtu barel\u016f ropy, kter\u00e9 j\u00edm prot\u00e9kaj\u00ed, nebo…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":113450,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[6382,38,371,310,37],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/113449"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=113449"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/113449\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/113450"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=113449"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=113449"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=113449"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}