{"id":113437,"date":"2026-08-18T00:11:37","date_gmt":"2026-08-17T22:11:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=113437"},"modified":"2026-08-17T08:50:44","modified_gmt":"2026-08-17T06:50:44","slug":"toto-nebude-kratkodoba-situace-jpmorgan-varuje-ze-dalsi-globalni-potravinova-krize-by-mohla-vypuknout-jiz-pristi-rok","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/08\/18\/toto-nebude-kratkodoba-situace-jpmorgan-varuje-ze-dalsi-globalni-potravinova-krize-by-mohla-vypuknout-jiz-pristi-rok\/","title":{"rendered":"\u201eToto nebude kr\u00e1tkodob\u00e1 situace\u201c: JPMorgan varuje, \u017ee dal\u0161\u00ed glob\u00e1ln\u00ed potravinov\u00e1 krize by mohla vypuknout ji\u017e p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00ed rok"},"content":{"rendered":"
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JPMorgan je nejnov\u011bj\u0161\u00edm z odd\u011blen\u00ed institucion\u00e1ln\u00edho v\u00fdzkumu, kter\u00e9 varuje, \u017ee\u00a0<\/span>dal\u0161\u00ed glob\u00e1ln\u00ed potravinov\u00e1 krize se m\u016f\u017ee ji\u017e r\u00fdsovat<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0, poh\u00e1n\u011bn\u00e1 t\u00edm, co analytici naz\u00fdvaj\u00ed\u00a0<\/span>\u201ep\u011bti W\u201c (\u00a0<\/span>v\u00e1lka, po\u010das\u00ed, skladov\u00e1n\u00ed, voda a odpad<\/span><\/em>\u00a0)\u00a0<\/span>.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

V nov\u00e9 zpr\u00e1v\u011b s n\u00e1zvem\u00a0<\/span>\u201ePotravinov\u00e1 bezpe\u010dnost je n\u00e1rodn\u00ed bezpe\u010dnost\u00ed: Zintenziv\u0148uj\u00edc\u00ed se bou\u0159e\u201c<\/span><\/em><\/strong>\u00a0varoval t\u00fdm veden\u00fd lond\u00fdnskou seniorn\u00ed glob\u00e1ln\u00ed ekonomkou\u00a0<\/span>Norou Szentiv\u00e1nyiovou,<\/span><\/em>\u00a0\u017ee naru\u0161en\u00ed v okol\u00ed Hormuzsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu a v\u00fdskyt potenci\u00e1ln\u011b historick\u00e9ho jevu El Ni\u00f1o by mohly oslabit v\u00fdnosy plodin, omezit zem\u011bd\u011blskou produkci a\u00a0<\/span>udr\u017eet inflaci cen potravin vysokou a\u017e do prvn\u00ed poloviny roku 2027.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

\u201e\u00a0<\/span>Po sob\u011b jdouc\u00ed \u0161oky<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0od pandemie COVIDu se zintenzivnily,\u00a0<\/span>podkopaly kapacitu produkce potravin<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0a udr\u017eely vysok\u00fd tlak na ceny potravin a\u017e do roku 2027,\u201c uvedl Szentivanyi a varoval: \u201e\u00a0<\/span>Nejedn\u00e1 se o kr\u00e1tkodob\u00fd \u0161ok<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0; sn\u00ed\u017eil pravd\u011bpodobnost kr\u00e1tkodob\u00e9 dezinflace a\u00a0<\/span>infla\u010dn\u00ed cyklus cen potravin bude pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b vyv\u00edjet tlak a\u017e do prvn\u00ed poloviny roku 2027.<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0\u201c<\/span><\/p>\n

O\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1, \u017ee\u00a0<\/span>glob\u00e1ln\u00ed inflace cen potravin<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0vzroste z 2,8 % v prvn\u00ed polovin\u011b roku 2026 na 5 % v prvn\u00ed polovin\u011b p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edho roku.<\/span><\/p>\n

Varov\u00e1n\u00ed p\u0159ich\u00e1z\u00ed navzdory m\u00edrn\u00e9mu zlep\u0161en\u00ed statistik hladu. V roce 2025 bylo hladem posti\u017eeno p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 645 milion\u016f lid\u00ed, co\u017e je o 43 milion\u016f m\u00e9n\u011b ne\u017e v roce 2022. Nicm\u00e9n\u011b 2,1 miliardy lid\u00ed, tedy 25,8 % sv\u011btov\u00e9 populace, nad\u00e1le trp\u011blo st\u0159edn\u011b t\u011b\u017ek\u00fdm nebo t\u011b\u017ek\u00fdm nedostatkem potravin.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Szentivanyi\u00a0<\/span>nast\u00ednila nejpal\u010div\u011bj\u0161\u00ed slabinu<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0:\u00a0<\/span>hnojiva<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0. Poznamenala: \u201eNaru\u0161en\u00ed v Hormuzsk\u00e9m pr\u016flivu a hroz\u00edc\u00ed super El Ni\u00f1o\u00a0<\/span>zvy\u0161uj\u00ed tlak na ceny hnojiv a potravin.\u201c<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

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Vysv\u011btlila, \u017ee \u201e\u00a0<\/span>dopad na \u00farodu a ceny se zes\u00edl\u00ed a d\u016fsledky pro zem\u011bd\u011blstv\u00ed se projev\u00ed se zpo\u017ed\u011bn\u00edm 6 a\u017e 12 m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f od vrcholu oce\u00e1nsk\u00e9ho jevu El Ni\u00f1o<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0.\u201c<\/span><\/p>\n

Szentivanyi varoval, \u017ee leto\u0161n\u00ed\u00a0<\/span>energetick\u00fd \u0161ok by mohl zhruba zdvojn\u00e1sobit infla\u010dn\u00ed dopad super El Ni\u00f1o<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0a zv\u00fd\u0161it glob\u00e1ln\u00ed index spot\u0159ebitelsk\u00fdch cen potravin p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b o 1,5 procentn\u00edho bodu ve srovn\u00e1n\u00ed s historick\u00fdm n\u00e1r\u016fstem o 0,7 bodu. P\u0159edpokl\u00e1d\u00e1 se, \u017ee inflace cen potravin dos\u00e1hne v prvn\u00ed polovin\u011b roku 2027 anualizovan\u00e9 m\u00edry 5 %, co\u017e zv\u00fd\u0161\u00ed celkovou inflaci o 0,6 procentn\u00edho bodu a zpomal\u00ed dezinflaci za cel\u00fd rok o 0,3 bodu.<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u201e\u00a0<\/span>Riziko se koncentruje v ji\u017en\u00ed a jihov\u00fdchodn\u00ed Asii, v\u010detn\u011b r\u00fd\u017ee, cukru a k\u00e1vy; v z\u00e1padn\u00ed Africe, v\u010detn\u011b kakaa; a v \u010d\u00e1stech v\u00fdchodn\u00ed a ji\u017en\u00ed Afriky<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0,\u201c uvedl analytik a dodal: \u201e\u00a0<\/span>Rozv\u00edjej\u00edc\u00ed se ekonomiky nesou hlavn\u00ed t\u00edhu El Ni\u00f1a<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0. Nejsiln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed reakce na inflaci cen potravin se koncentruj\u00ed v rozv\u00edjej\u00edc\u00edch se asijsk\u00fdch ekonomik\u00e1ch a Latinsk\u00e9 Americe, kde zem\u011bd\u011blstv\u00ed z\u00e1visl\u00e9 na po\u010das\u00ed hraje v ekonomice v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed roli a potraviny maj\u00ed vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed v\u00e1hu ve spot\u0159ebitelsk\u00e9m ko\u0161i.\u00a0<\/span>Indie, Kolumbie, Indon\u00e9sie, Braz\u00edlie, Tchaj-wan a Korea se ukazuj\u00ed jako nejv\u00edce zasa\u017een\u00e9 ekonomiky<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0.\u201c<\/span><\/p>\n

\u010c\u00edna si nav\u00edc\u00a0<\/span>vytvo\u0159ila z\u00e1soby potravin, hnojiv, energie a pr\u016fmyslov\u00fdch kov\u016f<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0. Z\u00e1pad sice m\u00e1 strategick\u00e9 z\u00e1soby ropy (kter\u00e9 se rychle vy\u010derp\u00e1vaj\u00ed, aby kompenzovaly naru\u0161en\u00ed dod\u00e1vek z oblasti Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu), ale\u00a0<\/span>chyb\u00ed mu v\u00fdznamn\u00e1 rezerva hnojiv<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0. Vzhledem k pokra\u010duj\u00edc\u00ed blok\u00e1d\u011b Hormuzsk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu, zhor\u0161uj\u00edc\u00edm se podm\u00ednk\u00e1m pro plodiny a roz\u0161i\u0159uj\u00edc\u00edm se kontrol\u00e1m v\u00fdvozu Szentivanyi nazna\u010duje, \u017ee dal\u0161\u00ed infla\u010dn\u00ed \u0161ok nemus\u00ed zas\u00e1hnout benz\u00ednov\u00e9 pumpy, jako tomu bylo za\u010d\u00e1tkem tohoto roku, ale\u00a0<\/span>sp\u00ed\u0161e reg\u00e1ly supermarket\u016f v p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edm roce<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0.<\/span><\/p>\n

Szentivanyiho pozorov\u00e1n\u00ed by \u010dten\u00e1\u0159e nem\u011blo p\u0159ekvapit, jeliko\u017e jsme ji\u017e citovali \u0159adu institucion\u00e1ln\u00edch analytik\u016f, v\u010detn\u011b Goldman Sachs, HSBC (\u00a0<\/span>v\u00edce zde<\/span><\/a>\u00a0) a dal\u0161\u00edch, kte\u0159\u00ed varuj\u00ed p\u0159ed rostouc\u00edmi riziky inflace cen potravin, kter\u00e1 by mohla vyplynout ze souhry v\u00fd\u0161e zm\u00edn\u011bn\u00fdch faktor\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n

Toto se d\u011bje na pozad\u00ed glob\u00e1ln\u00edho indexu cen potravin Organizace OSN pro v\u00fd\u017eivu a zem\u011bd\u011blstv\u00ed (FAO), kter\u00fd v \u010dervenci vzrostl na t\u0159\u00edlet\u00e9 maximum.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n

Robert Ohmes, analytik Bank of America, ned\u00e1vno varoval, \u017ee ceny potravin v supermarketech by letos na podzim mohly d\u00e1le r\u016fst. Uvedl, \u017ee\u00a0<\/span>inflace cen potravin je \u201emo\u017en\u00e1 bezprost\u0159edn\u00ed\u201c, s odkazem na<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0kombinovan\u00fd index mezd, cen nafty a n\u00e1klad\u016f na komodity.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n

Pro \u010dten\u00e1\u0159e\u00a0<\/span>by sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed z\u00e1vislosti na st\u00e1le k\u0159eh\u010d\u00edch potravinov\u00fdch \u0159et\u011bzc\u00edch mohlo znamenat budov\u00e1n\u00ed odolnosti ve vlastn\u00edch zahrad\u00e1ch<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0. To by mohlo znamenat vyu\u017eit\u00ed nevyu\u017eit\u00e9ho prostoru pro ku\u0159ata, zeleninovou zahradu nebo oboj\u00ed. P\u0159esto\u017ee leto\u0161n\u00ed vegeta\u010dn\u00ed obdob\u00ed z velk\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1sti za sebou m\u00e1 vrchol, nyn\u00ed je \u010das pl\u00e1novat na p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00ed jaro. Budov\u00e1n\u00ed vztah\u016f s m\u00edstn\u00edmi ran\u010dery, farm\u00e1\u0159i a producenty potravin m\u016f\u017ee tak\u00e9 poskytnout alternativn\u00ed dodavatelskou s\u00ed\u0165, pokud se n\u00e1rodn\u00ed distribu\u010dn\u00ed s\u00edt\u011b ocitnou pod tlakem.<\/span><\/p>\n

***<\/span><\/p>\n

Od Tylera Durdena<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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Zdroj<\/span><\/a><\/span><\/h3>\n

 <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

JPMorgan je nejnov\u011bj\u0161\u00edm z odd\u011blen\u00ed institucion\u00e1ln\u00edho v\u00fdzkumu, kter\u00e9 varuje, \u017ee\u00a0dal\u0161\u00ed glob\u00e1ln\u00ed potravinov\u00e1 krize se m\u016f\u017ee…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":13869,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1941,371,750],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/113437"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=113437"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/113437\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/13869"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=113437"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=113437"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=113437"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}