{"id":113422,"date":"2026-08-17T05:46:33","date_gmt":"2026-08-17T03:46:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=113422"},"modified":"2026-08-17T05:46:33","modified_gmt":"2026-08-17T03:46:33","slug":"valka-na-ukrajine-nuti-zapad-k-navratu-ke-geopolitice","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/08\/17\/valka-na-ukrajine-nuti-zapad-k-navratu-ke-geopolitice\/","title":{"rendered":"V\u00e1lka na Ukrajin\u011b nut\u00ed Z\u00e1pad k n\u00e1vratu ke geopolitice"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

Po v\u00edce ne\u017e \u010dty\u0159ech letech v\u00e1lky se v debat\u011b o americk\u00e9 zahrani\u010dn\u00ed politice objevuje pozoruhodn\u00fd posun: trval\u00e9ho m\u00edru nelze dos\u00e1hnout pouze individu\u00e1ln\u00edmi po\u017eadavky, bezpe\u010dnostn\u00edmi z\u00e1rukami a bilater\u00e1ln\u00edmi dohodami. Mus\u00ed zavazovat z\u00e1jmy\u00a0\u00a0<\/span>v\u0161ech<\/span><\/u><\/em>\u00a0\u00a0kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fdch hr\u00e1\u010d\u016f, v\u010detn\u011b Ruska.<\/span><\/p>\n

P\u0159esn\u011b toto je t\u00e9ma nov\u00e9ho \u010dl\u00e1nku Matta Waldmana a Samuela Charapa v\u00a0<\/span>\u010dasopise Foreign Affairs<\/span><\/a><\/em>\u00a0. U\u017e jen \u00favodn\u00ed ot\u00e1zka stoj\u00ed za to se zamyslet: jak by m\u011bl b\u00fdt media\u010dn\u00ed proces strukturov\u00e1n, aby paraleln\u00ed diskuse nakonec vedly k pevn\u00e9 dohod\u011b?<\/span><\/p>\n

Auto\u0159i kritizuj\u00ed sou\u010dasnou strukturu jedn\u00e1n\u00ed. Washington, Kyjev, Moskva a evropsk\u00e9 vl\u00e1dy diskutuj\u00ed o ot\u00e1zk\u00e1ch s vyu\u017eit\u00edm r\u016fzn\u00fdch form\u00e1t\u016f dokument\u016f. Chyb\u00ed spole\u010dn\u00fd r\u00e1mec pro vyjedn\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed, v n\u011bm\u017e by se kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e9 ot\u00e1zky \u0159e\u0161ily sou\u010dasn\u011b a koordinovan\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n

Na prvn\u00ed pohled se to zd\u00e1 technick\u00e9. Ve skute\u010dnosti se to t\u00fdk\u00e1 j\u00e1dra konfliktu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Kompromis mezi Washingtonem a Kyjevem m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt pro Moskvu skute\u010dn\u011b nep\u0159ijateln\u00fd. \u00dastupky Rusku mohou b\u00fdt n\u00e1sledn\u011b blokov\u00e1ny v Lond\u00fdn\u011b, Bruselu nebo n\u011bkter\u00fdch \u010dlensk\u00fdch st\u00e1tech EU. Bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed z\u00e1ruky, sankce, \u00fazem\u00ed, nasazen\u00ed vojsk, rekonstrukci a budouc\u00ed sm\u011b\u0159ov\u00e1n\u00ed ukrajinsk\u00e9 zahrani\u010dn\u00ed politiky proto nelze od sebe jasn\u011b odd\u011blit.<\/span><\/p>\n

Druh\u00e1 my\u0161lenka je je\u0161t\u011b zaj\u00edmav\u011bj\u0161\u00ed. Jedn\u00e1n\u00ed by se m\u011bla \u0159\u00eddit z\u00e1jmy, nikoli pouze ve\u0159ejn\u011b deklarovan\u00fdmi postoji. To nep\u0159\u00edmo zpochyb\u0148uje metodu, kter\u00e1 charakterizuje z\u00e1padn\u00ed diplomacii po l\u00e9ta: nejprve se v r\u00e1mci vlastn\u00ed aliance formuluje \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed a pot\u00e9 se sna\u017e\u00ed p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010dit druhou stranu, aby ho p\u0159ijala.<\/span><\/p>\n

Dohoda, kterou v podstat\u011b vymyslela jedna strana a pot\u00e9 ji p\u0159edlo\u017eila druh\u00e9 stran\u011b, v\u0161ak z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 z\u00e1visl\u00e1 na politick\u00e9m a vojensk\u00e9m tlaku, kter\u00fd ji vynucuje k p\u0159ijet\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Zde za\u010d\u00edn\u00e1 skute\u010dn\u00fd geopolitick\u00fd v\u00fdznam \u010dl\u00e1nku: Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty mohou Ukrajin\u011b nab\u00eddnout bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed z\u00e1ruky. Konkr\u00e9tn\u00ed implementace t\u011bchto z\u00e1ruk sice z rusk\u00e9ho pohledu vytv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed trvalou strategickou hrozbu, ale zat\u00edm nevede k m\u00edru. Washington m\u016f\u017ee z\u00e1rove\u0148 Moskv\u011b sl\u00edbit zm\u00edrn\u011bn\u00ed sankc\u00ed. V\u00fdznamn\u00e1 \u010d\u00e1st sankc\u00ed v\u0161ak le\u017e\u00ed na EU a Velk\u00e9 Brit\u00e1nii.<\/span><\/p>\n

Samotn\u00e1 povaha jedn\u00e1n\u00ed se tak m\u011bn\u00ed. U\u017e se nejedn\u00e1 jen o to, kde bude jednoho dne vyty\u010dena linie p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed. Jde o ot\u00e1zku propojen\u00ed \u00fazem\u00ed, vojensk\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edtomnosti, bezpe\u010dnostn\u00edch z\u00e1ruk, sankc\u00ed, ukrajinsk\u00fdch ozbrojen\u00fdch sil a budouc\u00ed strategick\u00e9 pozice Ukrajiny.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ka\u017ed\u00fd, kdo tyto probl\u00e9my propoj\u00ed, nevyhnuteln\u011b \u010del\u00ed \u0161ir\u0161\u00ed ot\u00e1zce: jak\u00fd bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed \u0159\u00e1d by m\u011bl po t\u00e9to v\u00e1lce p\u0159evl\u00e1dnout ve v\u00fdchodn\u00ed Evrop\u011b? Pr\u00e1v\u011b zde spo\u010d\u00edv\u00e1 politick\u00e1 v\u00fdzva: v\u00e1lka na Ukrajin\u011b byla na Z\u00e1pad\u011b po l\u00e9ta vn\u00edm\u00e1na p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm jako probl\u00e9m, jeho\u017e politick\u00e9 \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed by si mohl definovat Kyjev a jeho z\u00e1padn\u00ed podporovatel\u00e9. Od Ruska se nakonec o\u010dek\u00e1valo, \u017ee tento \u0159\u00e1d p\u0159ijme.<\/span><\/p>\n

Takov\u00fd syst\u00e9m jasn\u011b ukazuje sv\u00e1 omezen\u00ed. Bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed p\u0159\u00edkazy nefunguj\u00ed proto, \u017ee jsou mor\u00e1ln\u011b \u017e\u00e1douc\u00ed nebo diplomaticky rozhodnuty. Funguj\u00ed tehdy, kdy\u017e z\u00fa\u010dastn\u011bn\u00e9 hlavn\u00ed mocnosti maj\u00ed dostate\u010dn\u00e9 d\u016fvody k tomu, aby je neust\u00e1le nezpochyb\u0148ovaly.<\/span><\/p>\n

Debata se tak vrac\u00ed k bodu, kter\u00e9mu se u\u017e l\u00e9ta sna\u017e\u00edme vyh\u00fdbat:<\/span><\/p>\n

V\u00e1lka na Ukrajin\u011b u\u017e d\u00e1vno nen\u00ed jen v\u00e1lkou o ukrajinsk\u00e9 \u00fazem\u00ed. Je sou\u010d\u00e1st\u00ed boje o budouc\u00ed mocensk\u00e9 a bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed uspo\u0159\u00e1d\u00e1n\u00ed ve v\u00fdchodn\u00ed Evrop\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n

A pr\u00e1v\u011b z tohoto d\u016fvodu bude dosa\u017een\u00ed m\u00edru podstatn\u011b obt\u00ed\u017en\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e pouh\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed. Jedn\u00e1n\u00ed mohou prob\u00edhat na frontov\u00e9 linii. Dohoda o nov\u00e9m evropsk\u00e9m bezpe\u010dnostn\u00edm \u0159\u00e1du v\u0161ak bude nezbytn\u00e1.<\/span><\/p>\n

od\u00a0<\/span>Eleny Fritzov\u00e9<\/span><\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Po v\u00edce ne\u017e \u010dty\u0159ech letech v\u00e1lky se v debat\u011b o americk\u00e9 zahrani\u010dn\u00ed politice objevuje pozoruhodn\u00fd…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":113423,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[2181,22,26,365],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/113422"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=113422"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/113422\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/113423"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=113422"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=113422"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=113422"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}