{"id":113232,"date":"2026-08-15T00:23:47","date_gmt":"2026-08-14T22:23:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=113232"},"modified":"2026-08-14T13:36:49","modified_gmt":"2026-08-14T11:36:49","slug":"andrew-korybko-jaky-je-nejrealistictejsi-konec-hry-pro-odeskou-oblast-na-ukrajine","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/08\/15\/andrew-korybko-jaky-je-nejrealistictejsi-konec-hry-pro-odeskou-oblast-na-ukrajine\/","title":{"rendered":"Andrew Korybko: Jak\u00fd je nejrealisti\u010dt\u011bj\u0161\u00ed konec hry pro Od\u011bskou oblast na Ukrajin\u011b?"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Toto zamy\u0161len\u00ed by nem\u011blo b\u00fdt nevinn\u011b chybn\u011b interpretov\u00e1no nebo zlomysln\u011b interpretov\u00e1no tak, \u017ee nazna\u010duje, \u017ee navr\u00e1cen\u00ed Od\u011bsk\u00e9 oblasti neprosp\u011bje rusk\u00fdm z\u00e1jm\u016fm.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Rusk\u00e9 \u201e\u00a0<\/span>systematick\u00e9 \u00fadery<\/span><\/a>\u00a0\u201c na\u00a0<\/span>Od\u011bskou oblast<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, kter\u00e9\u00a0<\/span>Ukrajinu de facto<\/span><\/a>\u00a0prozat\u00edm odd\u011blily od vnitrozem\u00ed, p\u0159edstavuj\u00ed dosud nejv\u00fdznamn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed p\u0159\u00edklad Putina, kter\u00fd d\u016fsledn\u011b \u201e\u00a0<\/span>eskaluji s c\u00edlem deeskalat<\/span><\/a>\u00a0\u201c vztahy s Ukrajinou v reakci na\u00a0<\/span>dosud rostouc\u00ed eskalaci na Ukrajin\u011b podporovanou Z\u00e1padem<\/span><\/a>\u00a0. Tento (\u00a0<\/span>pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b opo\u017ed\u011bn\u00fd<\/span><\/a>\u00a0) v\u00fdvoj znovu vzbudil nad\u011bje mezi rusk\u00fdmi p\u0159\u00edznivci doma i v zahrani\u010d\u00ed, \u017ee kone\u010dn\u00fdm c\u00edlem\u00a0<\/span>ukrajinsk\u00e9ho konfliktu<\/span><\/a>\u00a0by mohlo b\u00fdt navr\u00e1cen\u00ed Od\u011bsk\u00e9 oblasti Rusku.<\/span><\/p>\n

M\u011bsto, po kter\u00e9m je Od\u011bsa pojmenov\u00e1na, bylo postaveno rusk\u00fdm lidem a stalo se jedn\u00edm z klenot\u016f Imp\u00e9ria. Pro Rusy m\u00e1 proto zna\u010dnou emocion\u00e1ln\u00ed hodnotu a jeho pokra\u010duj\u00edc\u00ed spr\u00e1va Ukrajinou je rusk\u00fdmi vlastenci pova\u017eov\u00e1na za nelegitimn\u00ed. Nicm\u00e9n\u011b, jak bylo objasn\u011bno v prosinci 2023, \u201e\u00a0<\/span>Putinova p\u0159ipom\u00ednka, \u017ee Od\u011bsa je rusk\u00e9 m\u011bsto, neznamen\u00e1, \u017ee je v hled\u00e1\u010dku Kremlu \u201c. Je nesporn\u00fdm faktem, \u017ee Rusko se b\u011bhem\u00a0<\/span><\/a>speci\u00e1ln\u00ed\u00a0<\/a>operace<\/a><\/span>\u00a0dosud v\u016fbec nepokusilo\u00a0<\/span>o jej\u00ed navr\u00e1cen\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Toto objektivn\u00ed pozorov\u00e1n\u00ed by nem\u011blo b\u00fdt nevinn\u011b p\u0159ekrucov\u00e1no nebo zlomysln\u011b interpretov\u00e1no tak, \u017ee by rusk\u00e9 z\u00e1jmy nebyly navr\u00e1cen\u00edm Od\u011bsk\u00e9 oblasti pos\u00edleny, ale \u017ee Putin zcela zjevn\u011b nic takov\u00e9ho neschv\u00e1lil, o d\u016fvodech \u010deho\u017e lze pouze spekulovat. Koncem minul\u00e9ho m\u011bs\u00edce v\u0161ak poskytl n\u00e1znak, kdy\u017e zdvo\u0159ile odm\u00edtl \u017e\u00e1dost nejmenovan\u00e9ho ocen\u011bn\u00e9ho, \u200b\u200baby byl ve speci\u00e1ln\u00ed operaci, jak ji popsal, \u201eje\u0161t\u011b odv\u00e1\u017en\u011bj\u0161\u00ed\u201c.<\/span><\/p>\n

Putinov\u00fdmi slovy<\/span><\/a>\u00a0: \u201eStejn\u011b jako v ekonomice existuj\u00ed i \u200b\u200bzde rizika, kter\u00e1 by pro n\u00e1s na boji\u0161ti mohla v\u00e9st k dal\u0161\u00edm ob\u011btem. Proto budeme i v tomto \u00fasil\u00ed opatrn\u00ed a z\u00e1rove\u0148 budeme asertivn\u00ed a d\u016fsledn\u00ed ve snaze o dosa\u017een\u00ed c\u00edl\u016f, kter\u00e9 si zem\u011b stanovila. Dos\u00e1hneme jich.\u201c Lze tedy p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dat, \u017ee Putin ch\u00e1pe obrovsk\u00e1 rizika, kter\u00e1 by krok v Od\u011bse mohl n\u00e9st, a tak\u00e9 mo\u017en\u00e9 kolos\u00e1ln\u00ed ztr\u00e1ty rusk\u00fdch \u017eivot\u016f, a proto se zdr\u00e1h\u00e1 d\u00e1t mu zelenou.<\/span><\/p>\n

Toto hodnocen\u00ed plat\u00ed i p\u0159esto, \u017ee v \u010dervnu\u00a0<\/span>novin\u00e1\u0159i \u0159ekl<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, \u017ee \u201ena\u0161\u00edm hlavn\u00edm c\u00edlem\u201c z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 \u201ekone\u010dn\u00e9 osvobozen\u00ed Donbasu a Novoruska\u201c. Zat\u00edmco mnoho rusk\u00fdch p\u0159\u00edznivc\u016f doma i v zahrani\u010d\u00ed interpretovalo jeho odkaz na Novorusko jako historick\u00fd region, kter\u00fd zahrnuje Od\u011bsu, Putin\u00a0<\/span>opakovan\u011b<\/span><\/a>\u00a0hovo\u0159\u00ed o Chersonsk\u00e9 a Z\u00e1poro\u017esk\u00e9 oblasti jako o Novorusku, co\u017e se stalo jeho preferovan\u00fdm zkratkov\u00fdm zp\u016fsobem, jak ozna\u010dit ob\u011b oblasti. Jak\u00e1koli jin\u00e1 interpretace je\u00a0<\/span>zbo\u017en\u00e9 p\u0159\u00e1n\u00ed<\/span><\/a>\u00a0.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pot\u00e9, co jsme objasnili, co Putin mysl\u00ed, kdy\u017e zmi\u0148uje Novorusko, a argumentovali, \u017ee jeho neochota schv\u00e1lit jak\u00fdkoli krok ohledn\u011b Od\u011bsy je zp\u016fsobena obavami z rusk\u00fdch ob\u011bt\u00ed, je nyn\u00ed \u010das \u0159\u00edci p\u00e1r slov o nejrealisti\u010dt\u011bj\u0161\u00edm kone\u010dn\u00e9m \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed pro Od\u011bsu. Vzhledem k tomu, \u017ee je nepravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9, \u017ee by se Od\u011bsa vr\u00e1tila k Rusku, pokud nenastane \u201e\u010dern\u00e1 labu\u0165\u201c, je nejlep\u0161\u00edm sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159em, \u017ee po skon\u010den\u00ed konfliktu tam budou nasazeny d\u016fv\u011bryhodn\u00e9 nez\u00e1padn\u00ed m\u00edrov\u00e9 s\u00edly, kter\u00e9 budou monitorovat \u010dinnost p\u0159\u00edstav\u016f v regionu a prosazovat jeho demilitarizaci n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed dopravy.<\/span><\/p>\n

Rusk\u00fd z\u00e1jem nespo\u010d\u00edv\u00e1 v udr\u017een\u00ed faktick\u00e9ho statusu Ukrajiny jako vnitrozemsk\u00e9 zem\u011b na dobu neur\u010ditou a v jej\u00edm udr\u017een\u00ed jako selh\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00edho st\u00e1tu, ale v zabr\u00e1n\u011bn\u00ed vojensk\u00e9mu dovozu po mo\u0159i a vypou\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00edch dron\u016f. Pov\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e9 hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9 o\u017eiven\u00ed Ukrajiny, kter\u00e9 je v z\u00e1jmu Ruska, pokud jsou zvl\u00e1dnuty bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed hrozby, vy\u017eaduje obnoven\u00ed \u010dinnosti obchodn\u00edch p\u0159\u00edstav\u016f. Vzhledem k tomu, \u017ee Rusko nem\u016f\u017ee p\u0159\u00edmo zajistit pokra\u010duj\u00edc\u00ed demilitarizaci Od\u011bsk\u00e9 oblasti, bude k tomu pot\u0159ebovat d\u016fv\u011bryhodn\u00e9 nez\u00e1padn\u00ed m\u00edrov\u00e9 s\u00edly, co\u017e by mohlo brzy navrhnout.<\/span><\/p>\n

Andrew Korybko, PhD<\/a><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Toto zamy\u0161len\u00ed by nem\u011blo b\u00fdt nevinn\u011b chybn\u011b interpretov\u00e1no nebo zlomysln\u011b interpretov\u00e1no tak, \u017ee nazna\u010duje, \u017ee…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":88653,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,270,22],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/113232"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=113232"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/113232\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/88653"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=113232"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=113232"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=113232"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}