{"id":112658,"date":"2026-08-08T00:24:52","date_gmt":"2026-08-07T22:24:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=112658"},"modified":"2026-08-07T12:34:27","modified_gmt":"2026-08-07T10:34:27","slug":"spojene-staty-nebo-cina-kdo-vyhraje-dalsi-valku","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/08\/08\/spojene-staty-nebo-cina-kdo-vyhraje-dalsi-valku\/","title":{"rendered":"Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty nebo \u010c\u00edna: kdo vyhraje dal\u0161\u00ed v\u00e1lku?"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

Jadern\u00e1 bomba nen\u00ed hlavn\u00ed hrozbou pro sv\u011bt. Existuje n\u011bco mnohem nebezpe\u010dn\u011bj\u0161\u00edho\u00a0<\/span><\/strong>.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Hlavn\u00ed hrozbou v konfrontaci mezi Spojen\u00fdmi st\u00e1ty a \u010c\u00ednou nen\u00ed vojensk\u00e1 parita, ale sp\u00ed\u0161e vz\u00e1jemn\u00e9 p\u0159ece\u0148ov\u00e1n\u00ed vlastn\u00edch schopnost\u00ed. Ot\u00e1zkou by m\u011blo b\u00fdt, jak se vyhnout konfliktu a spole\u010dn\u011b pracovat na odstran\u011bn\u00ed spole\u010dn\u00fdch hrozeb, jako jsou klimatick\u00e9 zm\u011bny a soci\u00e1ln\u00ed nespravedlnost.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Kdo vyhraje p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00ed v\u00e1lku?\u00a0<\/span>Tuto ot\u00e1zku<\/span><\/a>\u00a0si klade ob\u00e1lka nejnov\u011bj\u0161\u00edho \u010d\u00edsla \u010dasopisu\u00a0<\/span>Foreign Affairs<\/span><\/em>\u00a0, kter\u00e9 se zam\u011b\u0159uje zejm\u00e9na na vojenskou a technologickou rivalitu mezi Spojen\u00fdmi st\u00e1ty a \u010c\u00ednou. V j\u00e1dru t\u00e9to konfrontace le\u017e\u00ed st\u0159et strategick\u00fdch filozofi\u00ed: americk\u00e9ho \u0159\u00e1du a \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9ho sv\u011bton\u00e1zoru, kter\u00fd \u010c\u00ednu vynesl na pozici druh\u00e9 nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed mocnosti sv\u011bta.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Auto\u0159i recenze odr\u00e1\u017eej\u00ed z\u00e1padn\u00ed strategickou tradici pramen\u00edc\u00ed z liber\u00e1ln\u00edho realismu, podle n\u00ed\u017e si Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty mus\u00ed udr\u017eet sv\u00e9 postaven\u00ed v oblasti zaji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed glob\u00e1ln\u00ed stability, obrany demokracie a zachov\u00e1n\u00ed sv\u00e9 finan\u010dn\u00ed, technologick\u00e9 a vojensk\u00e9 moci. Ka\u017ed\u00fd, kdo o tuto roli usiluje, je z definice revizionistou.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Hlavn\u00ed publicista Paul Scharre tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee nov\u00e9 technologie (drony, um\u011bl\u00e1 inteligence a robotika) nejen zpochyb\u0148uj\u00ed tradi\u010dn\u00ed americkou leteckou a n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed s\u00edlu, ale tak\u00e9 nab\u00edzej\u00ed st\u00e1t\u016fm, jako je \u00cdr\u00e1n, mo\u017enost v\u00e9st asymetrickou v\u00e1lku, co\u017e podkop\u00e1v\u00e1 jak vojenskou, tak politickou s\u00edlu Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

B\u00fdval\u00fd velitel americk\u00fdch tichomo\u0159sk\u00fdch sil admir\u00e1l Dennis Blair tento n\u00e1zor potvrzuje a uv\u00e1d\u00ed, \u017ee \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 budov\u00e1n\u00ed nen\u00ed obrann\u00e9, ale \u00fato\u010dn\u00e9 a jeho c\u00edlem je zm\u011bnit status quo ve v\u00fdchodn\u00ed Asii. Zast\u00e1v\u00e1 se strategie odstra\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed zalo\u017een\u00e9 na s\u00edt\u00edch americk\u00fdch alianc\u00ed, nasazen\u00ed pokro\u010dil\u00fdch sil a technologick\u00e9 p\u0159evaze k zaji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed region\u00e1ln\u00ed stability.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u010c\u00ednsk\u00e9 strategick\u00e9 my\u0161len\u00ed vn\u00edm\u00e1 tuto konfrontaci jako n\u00e1vrat ke glob\u00e1ln\u00ed rovnov\u00e1ze po p\u011bti stolet\u00edch z\u00e1padn\u00ed dominance. Zat\u00edmco z\u00e1padn\u00ed aliance pova\u017eovala \u0159\u00e1d veden\u00fd USA za legitimn\u00ed z\u00e1klad glob\u00e1ln\u00ed stability, \u010c\u00edna a zem\u011b glob\u00e1ln\u00edho Jihu, zejm\u00e9na b\u00fdval\u00e9 kolonie, tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee st\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00ed \u0159\u00e1d je navr\u017een tak, aby udr\u017eoval z\u00e1padn\u00ed hegemonii.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Kontinent\u00e1ln\u00ed mocnosti srdce Asie, \u010c\u00edna, Rusko, \u00cdr\u00e1n a Severn\u00ed Korea,\u00a0<\/span>tvrd\u00ed,<\/span><\/a>\u00a0\u017ee jsou obklopeny n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00edmi mocnostmi \u201eperiferie\u201c v \u010dele se Spojen\u00fdmi st\u00e1ty, kter\u00e9 ovl\u00e1daj\u00ed kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e1 uzly nejen na hlavn\u00edch obchodn\u00edch tras\u00e1ch, ale tak\u00e9 v r\u00e1mci technologick\u00fdch, finan\u010dn\u00edch a logistick\u00fdch s\u00edt\u00ed.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Nejv\u00fdrazn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed rozd\u00edl spo\u010d\u00edv\u00e1 v tom, jak ka\u017ed\u00e1 strana definuje v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed a konflikt. Mnoho z\u00e1padn\u00edch strat\u00e9g\u016f uva\u017euje v term\u00ednech hry s nulov\u00fdm sou\u010dtem: bu\u010f si Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty udr\u017e\u00ed nadvl\u00e1du, nebo \u010c\u00edna v regionu vnucuje autorit\u00e1\u0159sk\u00fd model. Ot\u00e1zka v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed se redukuje na to, jak se Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty a jejich spojenci zorganizuj\u00ed, aby dos\u00e1hli p\u0159evahy.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Sou\u010dasn\u00e1 \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e1 st\u00e1tn\u00ed moudrost, \u010derpaj\u00edc\u00ed ze zku\u0161enost\u00ed s koexistenc\u00ed s nep\u0159\u00e1telsk\u00fdmi sousedy, vyu\u017e\u00edv\u00e1 komplexn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed syst\u00e9mov\u00fd p\u0159\u00edstup, kter\u00fd up\u0159ednost\u0148uje v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed bez boje, ovliv\u0148uje vn\u00edm\u00e1n\u00ed a vyu\u017e\u00edv\u00e1 p\u00e1ky vlivu sp\u00ed\u0161e ne\u017e hrubou s\u00edlu a hled\u00e1 rovnov\u00e1hu prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm vojensk\u00e9 a politick\u00e9 moci.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Zat\u00edmco Ameri\u010dan\u00e9 up\u0159ednost\u0148uj\u00ed rychl\u00e9, masivn\u00ed a rozhodn\u00e9 akce v technologick\u00e9, finan\u010dn\u00ed a vojensk\u00e9 oblasti, \u010c\u00ed\u0148an\u00e9 mysl\u00ed a jednaj\u00ed podle dialektick\u00e9 logiky.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Investicemi do um\u011bl\u00e9 inteligence, v\u00fdpo\u010detn\u00edho v\u00fdkonu a technologi\u00ed hledaj\u00ed Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty onu nepolapitelnou z\u00e1zra\u010dnou zbra\u0148, kter\u00e1 by mohla eliminovat v\u0161echny revizionisty. \u00cdr\u00e1nci a \u010c\u00ed\u0148an\u00e9 se ze sv\u00e9 strany pou\u010dili z v\u00e1lky ve Vietnamu: venkov obklopuje m\u011bsta a masy nakonec vy\u010derpaj\u00ed netrp\u011blivost elit.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

V oblasti um\u011bl\u00e9 inteligence a robotiky le\u017e\u00ed na v\u00fdb\u011br mezi uzav\u0159en\u00fdmi modely, kter\u00e9 up\u0159ednost\u0148uj\u00ed velk\u00e9 americk\u00e9 technologick\u00e9 spole\u010dnosti vyb\u00edraj\u00edc\u00ed licen\u010dn\u00ed poplatky nebo \u00fa\u010dtuj\u00edc\u00ed u\u017eivatel\u016fm poplatky za p\u0159edplatn\u00e9, a otev\u0159en\u00fdmi \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fdmi modely, kter\u00e9 nab\u00edzej\u00ed t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 ekvivalentn\u00ed v\u00fdkon za v\u00fdrazn\u011b ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed cenu. Podstata t\u00e9to konfrontace spo\u010d\u00edv\u00e1 ve strategick\u00e9 trp\u011blivosti, st\u0159etu mezi nejlep\u0161\u00edmi a nejbyst\u0159ej\u0161\u00edmi na jedn\u00e9 stran\u011b a pouh\u00fdmi \u010d\u00edsly a n\u00edzk\u00fdmi n\u00e1klady na stran\u011b druh\u00e9.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Tak\u017ee, kdo vyhraje p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00ed v\u00e1lku? Pro ty, kte\u0159\u00ed si nedok\u00e1\u017eou p\u0159edstavit sv\u011bt, kde v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed jedn\u00e9 strany neznamen\u00e1 por\u00e1\u017eku druh\u00e9, je odpov\u011b\u010f: bu\u010f Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty, nebo \u010c\u00edna. Pro ty, kte\u0159\u00ed jsou schopni uva\u017eovat v term\u00ednech slo\u017eit\u00fdch syst\u00e9m\u016f, je t\u0159eba samotnou ot\u00e1zku odm\u00edtnout.\u00a0<\/span>V\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed je v jadern\u00e9 v\u00e1lce nemo\u017en\u00e9<\/span><\/a>\u00a0; m\u016f\u017ee zni\u010dit nejen protivn\u00edky, ale i v\u0161echny ostatn\u00ed.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Skute\u010dnou ot\u00e1zkou je, jak se vyhnout konflikt\u016fm a spolupracovat na odstran\u011bn\u00ed spole\u010dn\u00fdch hrozeb, jako je zm\u011bna klimatu, nadm\u011brn\u00e9 vy\u010derp\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed p\u0159\u00edrodn\u00edch zdroj\u016f a nespravedlnost v\u016f\u010di lidem.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Nebezpe\u010d\u00ed t\u00e9to konfrontace spo\u010d\u00edv\u00e1 v tom, \u017ee ob\u011b strany riskuj\u00ed podcen\u011bn\u00ed protivn\u00edka a p\u0159ecen\u011bn\u00ed vlastn\u00edch siln\u00fdch str\u00e1nek. Nesna\u017e\u00ed se porozum\u011bt ani sob\u011b, ani druh\u00e9 stran\u011b, co\u017e m\u016f\u017ee v\u00e9st k eskalaci. Modely um\u011bl\u00e9 inteligence produkuj\u00ed halucinace, kdy\u017e jejich datab\u00e1ze neobsahuje odpov\u011b\u010f na nejednozna\u010dnou ot\u00e1zku. Dokud si v\u0161echny strany neuv\u011bdom\u00ed, \u017ee glob\u00e1ln\u00ed stabilita z\u00e1vis\u00ed na dialogu a vz\u00e1jemn\u00e9m porozum\u011bn\u00ed a \u017ee budouc\u00ed sv\u011btov\u00fd \u0159\u00e1d mus\u00ed zohled\u0148ovat v\u00edce ne\u017e jednu perspektivu, sv\u011bt bude i nad\u00e1le sklouz\u00e1vat k dal\u0161\u00edmu nekone\u010dn\u00e9mu konfliktu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Alexandre Lemoine<\/span><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Jadern\u00e1 bomba nen\u00ed hlavn\u00ed hrozbou pro sv\u011bt. Existuje n\u011bco mnohem nebezpe\u010dn\u011bj\u0161\u00edho\u00a0. Hlavn\u00ed hrozbou v konfrontaci…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":112659,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,30,37,40],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/112658"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=112658"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/112658\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/112659"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=112658"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=112658"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=112658"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}