{"id":112522,"date":"2026-08-06T02:50:55","date_gmt":"2026-08-06T00:50:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=112522"},"modified":"2026-08-06T02:50:55","modified_gmt":"2026-08-06T00:50:55","slug":"naklady-60-bilionu-dolaru-economist-bori-utopii-nuloveho-cisteho-prijmu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/08\/06\/naklady-60-bilionu-dolaru-economist-bori-utopii-nuloveho-cisteho-prijmu\/","title":{"rendered":"N\u00e1klady 60 bilion\u016f dolar\u016f: Economist bo\u0159\u00ed utopii nulov\u00e9ho \u010dist\u00e9ho p\u0159\u00edjmu"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Nulov\u00e9 \u010dist\u00e9 emise do roku 2050 jsou ji\u017e dlouho standardn\u00edm prvkem z\u00e1padn\u00ed politiky. Vl\u00e1dy rozhoduj\u00ed o datech postupn\u00e9ho ukon\u010dov\u00e1n\u00ed, z\u00e1kazech a programech v hodnot\u011b bilion\u016f dolar\u016f, ani\u017e by zve\u0159ejnily plnou pot\u0159ebu elektr\u00e1ren, skladovac\u00edch za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed, s\u00edt\u00ed, surovin a pracovn\u00edch sil. Ekonom Tore And\u00f8l provedl p\u0159esn\u011b tento v\u00fdpo\u010det \u2013 a dosp\u011bl k drtiv\u00e9mu z\u00e1v\u011bru.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

V\u00fdpo\u010dty norsk\u00e9ho ekonoma<\/span><\/a>\u00a0vych\u00e1zej\u00ed z dne\u0161n\u00ed reality. Lidstvo spot\u0159ebuje ro\u010dn\u011b p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 600 exajoul\u016f energie, z \u010deho\u017e zhruba 86 procent st\u00e1le poch\u00e1z\u00ed z ropy, plynu a uhl\u00ed. Zat\u00edmco pod\u00edl fosiln\u00edch paliv se od roku 2015 m\u00edrn\u011b sn\u00ed\u017eil, absolutn\u00ed spot\u0159eba fosiln\u00edch paliv se ve stejn\u00e9m obdob\u00ed zv\u00fd\u0161ila p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b o 13 500 terawatthodin. Tato dodate\u010dn\u00e1 spot\u0159eba sama o sob\u011b odpov\u00edd\u00e1 zhruba \u0161estin\u00e1sobku ro\u010dn\u00ed produkce ropy a plynu na norsk\u00e9m kontinent\u00e1ln\u00edm \u0161elfu.<\/span><\/p>\n

V\u011btrn\u00e1 a sol\u00e1rn\u00ed energie tak\u00e9 siln\u011b rostou, i kdy\u017e z n\u00edzk\u00e9ho v\u00fdchoz\u00edho bodu. Podle And\u00f8lovy anal\u00fdzy pokr\u00fdv\u00e1 sol\u00e1rn\u00ed energie p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 1,7 procenta celosv\u011btov\u00e9 spot\u0159eby energie a v\u011btrn\u00e1 energie asi 1,6 procenta. Navzdory t\u011bmto enormn\u00edm \u010d\u00edsl\u016fm r\u016fstu ropa, plyn a uhl\u00ed v absolutn\u00edch \u010d\u00edslech vzrostly v\u00edce. V roce 2025, podle \u00fadaj\u016f Energetick\u00e9ho institutu, v\u00edce ne\u017e polovina n\u00e1r\u016fstu celosv\u011btov\u00e9 spot\u0159eby op\u011bt poch\u00e1zela z fosiln\u00edch paliv. Emise CO2 tak\u00e9 nad\u00e1le rostou. Od Pa\u0159\u00ed\u017esk\u00e9 dohody o klimatu se emise souvisej\u00edc\u00ed s energi\u00ed podle And\u00f8la zv\u00fd\u0161ily p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b o dev\u011bt procent. Sv\u011bt nenahradil spot\u0159ebu fosiln\u00edch paliv, ale m\u00edsto toho postavil dal\u0161\u00ed v\u011btrn\u00e9 turb\u00edny, sol\u00e1rn\u00ed panely a vodn\u00ed elektr\u00e1rny. Evrop\u0161t\u00ed politici hovo\u0159\u00ed o postupn\u00e9m vy\u0159azov\u00e1n\u00ed fosiln\u00edch paliv, zat\u00edmco glob\u00e1ln\u00ed popt\u00e1vka po energii nad\u00e1le nezmen\u0161en\u011b roste.<\/span><\/p>\n

Dvan\u00e1ct terawatt\u016f mus\u00ed b\u00fdt neust\u00e1le k dispozici<\/span><\/h3>\n

And\u00f8l p\u0159edpov\u00edd\u00e1 glob\u00e1ln\u00ed popt\u00e1vku po energii pro rok 2050 ve v\u00fd\u0161i p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 370 exajoul\u016f. Toto \u010d\u00edslo je v\u00fdrazn\u011b ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e jednoduch\u00e1 extrapolace sou\u010dasn\u00e9 spot\u0159eby, proto\u017ee zohled\u0148uje vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed \u00fa\u010dinnost elektrick\u00fdch spot\u0159ebi\u010d\u016f, motor\u016f a topn\u00fdch syst\u00e9m\u016f. Mnoho energetick\u00fdch ztr\u00e1t z dne\u0161n\u00edch spalovac\u00edch technologi\u00ed by v podstat\u011b zmizelo elektrifikac\u00ed. Z\u00e1rove\u0148 p\u0159edpokl\u00e1d\u00e1 ro\u010dn\u00ed r\u016fst popt\u00e1vky po vyu\u017eiteln\u00e9 energii pouze o jedno procento \u2013 pr\u00e1v\u011b proto, \u017ee takov\u00e9 zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed \u00fa\u010dinnosti m\u00e1 tlumic\u00ed \u00fa\u010dinek.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ale i s t\u011bmito p\u0159edpoklady \u2013 p\u0159\u00edzniv\u00fdmi pro zast\u00e1nce ideologie nulov\u00e9 elekt\u0159iny \u2013 by sv\u011bt do roku 2050 pot\u0159eboval nep\u0159etr\u017eit\u011b dod\u00e1vat p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b dvan\u00e1ct terawatt\u016f energie. Ne jen p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitostn\u011b, nejen kdy\u017e sv\u00edt\u00ed slunce, a nejen kdy\u017e je skute\u010dn\u011b dostatek v\u011btru. Pr\u016fmysl, nemocnice, vod\u00e1rny, doprava, zem\u011bd\u011blstv\u00ed, chladic\u00ed \u0159et\u011bzce a komunika\u010dn\u00ed s\u00edt\u011b \u2013 to v\u0161e vy\u017eaduje elekt\u0159inu neust\u00e1le. V tomto bod\u011b v\u0161ak zjednodu\u0161en\u00fd v\u00fdpo\u010det zalo\u017een\u00fd na instalovan\u00fdch gigawattech kapacity kon\u010d\u00ed a za\u010d\u00edn\u00e1 ot\u00e1zka skute\u010dn\u011b dostupn\u00e9 energie.<\/span><\/p>\n

Politici \u010dasto srovn\u00e1vaj\u00ed nomin\u00e1ln\u00ed v\u00fdkon sol\u00e1rn\u00edho parku s v\u00fdkonem plynov\u00e9, uheln\u00e9 nebo jadern\u00e9 elektr\u00e1rny. T\u00edm se zast\u00edr\u00e1 skute\u010dnost, \u017ee sol\u00e1rn\u00ed panel v noci nic neprodukuje a v\u011btrn\u00e1 turb\u00edna v bezv\u011bt\u0159\u00ed t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 nic. D\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 nen\u00ed \u010d\u00edslo na typov\u00e9m \u0161t\u00edtku, ale garantovan\u00fd v\u00fdkon elektr\u00e1rny (\u00a0<\/span>viz tak\u00e9 na\u0161i anal\u00fdzu zde<\/span><\/a>\u00a0). To vy\u017eaduje skladovac\u00ed za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed, rezervn\u00ed elektr\u00e1rny nebo masivn\u00ed nadm\u011brn\u00e9 kapacity.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Jeden milion nov\u00fdch v\u011btrn\u00fdch turb\u00edn by byl jen za\u010d\u00e1tek<\/span><\/h3>\n

Pro sv\u016fj modelov\u00fd v\u00fdpo\u010det And\u00f8l rozd\u011bluje budouc\u00ed dod\u00e1vky energie mezi v\u011btrnou, sol\u00e1rn\u00ed a jadernou energii. Podle jeho v\u00fdpo\u010dt\u016f by bylo do roku 2050 nutn\u00e9 ka\u017edoro\u010dn\u011b p\u0159id\u00e1vat p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 210 gigawatt\u016f v\u011btrn\u00e9 a sol\u00e1rn\u00ed kapacity. U v\u011btrn\u00e9 energie by to odpov\u00eddalo zhruba 40 000 nov\u00fdm turb\u00edn\u00e1m, ka\u017ed\u00e1 s kapacitou p\u011bt megawatt\u016f \u2013 rok co rok, po dobu \u010dtvrt stolet\u00ed. Nakonec by na cel\u00e9m sv\u011bt\u011b bylo v\u00edce ne\u017e milion dal\u0161\u00edch v\u011btrn\u00fdch turb\u00edn, kter\u00e9 by v z\u00e1vislosti na opot\u0159eben\u00ed bylo nutn\u00e9 vym\u011bnit p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b po 10 a\u017e 20 letech.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pot\u0159eba pozemk\u016f by byla tak\u00e9 enormn\u00ed. And\u00f8l odhaduje zhruba 80 000 kilometr\u016f \u010dtvere\u010dn\u00edch pro sol\u00e1rn\u00ed elektr\u00e1rny a p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 415 000 kilometr\u016f \u010dtvere\u010dn\u00edch pro v\u011btrn\u00e9 farmy. Byly by tak\u00e9 zapot\u0159eb\u00ed silnice, elektrick\u00e9 veden\u00ed, rozvodny, \u00fadr\u017eb\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9 plochy, skladovac\u00ed za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed a nov\u00e9 s\u00edt\u011b vysok\u00e9ho nap\u011bt\u00ed. Instalace na mo\u0159i sice sni\u017euj\u00ed spot\u0159ebu pozemk\u016f, ale zvy\u0161uj\u00ed n\u00e1klady na v\u00fdstavbu, \u00fadr\u017ebu a p\u0159ipojen\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ned\u00e1vn\u00fd ka\u017edoro\u010dn\u00ed n\u00e1r\u016fst kapacity sol\u00e1rn\u00ed energie, kter\u00fd dos\u00e1hl p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 500 gigawatt\u016f, ukazuje, \u017ee v\u00fdroba velk\u00e9ho mno\u017estv\u00ed modul\u016f je v z\u00e1sad\u011b mo\u017en\u00e1. To v\u0161ak neznamen\u00e1, \u017ee tento n\u00e1r\u016fst m\u016f\u017ee pokra\u010dovat donekone\u010dna po cel\u00e1 desetilet\u00ed. St\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00ed elektr\u00e1rny mus\u00ed b\u00fdt na konci sv\u00e9 \u017eivotnosti nahrazeny a z\u00e1rove\u0148 je t\u0159eba p\u0159id\u00e1vat nov\u00e9 kapacity. M\u011b\u010f, hlin\u00edk, ocel, k\u0159em\u00edk, vz\u00e1cn\u00e9 kovy, kvalifikovan\u00ed pracovn\u00edci, lod\u011b, je\u0159\u00e1by a s\u00ed\u0165ov\u00e1 p\u0159ipojen\u00ed nejsou k dispozici v neomezen\u00e9m mno\u017estv\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

V\u00edce ne\u017e jeden nov\u00fd jadern\u00fd reaktor denn\u011b<\/span><\/h3>\n

V\u011btrn\u00e1 a sol\u00e1rn\u00ed energie samy o sob\u011b nemohou zaru\u010dit nep\u0159etr\u017eit\u00e9 dod\u00e1vky energie. And\u00f8l proto navrhuje dodate\u010dnou dostate\u010dnou jadernou kapacitu k pokryt\u00ed popt\u00e1vky i v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b, \u017ee by nebyla k dispozici v\u00fdroba z\u00e1visl\u00e1 na po\u010das\u00ed. Jeho v\u00fdpo\u010dty vedou k p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 420 nov\u00fdm reaktor\u016fm, ka\u017ed\u00fd s kapacitou jednoho gigawattu, ro\u010dn\u011b. To by znamenalo v\u00edce ne\u017e jeden nov\u00fd velk\u00fd reaktor denn\u011b a v\u00edce ne\u017e 10 000 reaktor\u016f do roku 2050. Cel\u00e1 sv\u011btov\u00e1 flotila jadern\u00fdch elektr\u00e1ren, kter\u00e1 je v sou\u010dasn\u00e9 dob\u011b v provozu, m\u00e1 kapacitu necel\u00fdch 400 gigawatt\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n

V sou\u010dasn\u00e9 dob\u011b se stav\u00ed p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 80 gigawatt\u016f energie. And\u00f8l\u016fv sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 tedy vy\u017eaduje n\u011bkolikan\u00e1sobek sou\u010dasn\u00e9 glob\u00e1ln\u00ed kapacity ve v\u00fdstavb\u011b ka\u017ed\u00fd rok. To vy\u017eaduje nejen financov\u00e1n\u00ed a politick\u00e9 schv\u00e1len\u00ed, ale tak\u00e9 v\u00fdrobce, specialisty, dodavatelsk\u00e9 \u0159et\u011bzce a vhodn\u00e1 m\u00edsta. Nav\u00edc dod\u00e1vky dostate\u010dn\u00e9ho mno\u017estv\u00ed \u0161t\u011bpn\u00e9ho paliva (uranu) z\u016fst\u00e1vaj\u00ed v tomto v\u00fdpo\u010dtu nejistou prom\u011bnnou, proto\u017ee i sou\u010dasn\u00e1 ro\u010dn\u00ed produkce sotva sta\u010d\u00ed k uspokojen\u00ed popt\u00e1vky.<\/span><\/p>\n

N\u011bkter\u00e9 p\u0159edpoklady v jeho modelu jsou sporn\u00e9. Ne ka\u017ed\u00e1 kilowatthodina v\u011btrn\u00e9 a sol\u00e1rn\u00ed energie nutn\u011b vy\u017eaduje vlastn\u00ed kilowatthodinu jadern\u00e9 energie jako p\u0159\u00edmou rezervu, za p\u0159edpokladu, \u017ee s\u00edt\u011b, vodn\u00ed energie, flexibiln\u00ed spot\u0159ebitel\u00e9, plynov\u00e9 elektr\u00e1rny a \u00falo\u017ei\u0161t\u011b energie spolupracuj\u00ed. Ale ani tehdy probl\u00e9m nezmiz\u00ed. Pouze se p\u0159esouv\u00e1 k dal\u0161\u00edm veden\u00edm, rezervn\u00edm kapacit\u00e1m a \u00falo\u017ei\u0161t\u00edm energie, kter\u00e9 je tak\u00e9 t\u0159eba postavit a zaplatit.<\/span><\/p>\n

To vyvol\u00e1v\u00e1 ot\u00e1zku, kter\u00e9 se p\u0159echod na zelenou energii obvykle vyh\u00fdb\u00e1: Pro\u010d by m\u011bla ekonomika sou\u010dasn\u011b budovat syst\u00e9m elektr\u00e1ren z\u00e1visl\u00fd na po\u010das\u00ed a prakticky pln\u011b zabezpe\u010denou rezervu? Jadern\u00e9 elektr\u00e1rny dod\u00e1vaj\u00ed elekt\u0159inu nep\u0159etr\u017eit\u011b. Pokud jsou stejn\u011b pot\u0159eba v obdob\u00ed klidu a v noci, ekonomick\u00fd p\u0159\u00ednos dal\u0161\u00ed masivn\u00ed flotily v\u011btrn\u00fdch a sol\u00e1rn\u00edch elektr\u00e1ren se zna\u010dn\u011b sni\u017euje.<\/span><\/p>\n

Baterie v\u00e1m neu\u0161et\u0159\u00ed pen\u00edze<\/span><\/h3>\n

Syst\u00e9my bateriov\u00e9ho \u00falo\u017ei\u0161t\u011b se dob\u0159e hod\u00ed pro p\u0159esun elekt\u0159iny na n\u011bkolik hodin. Dok\u00e1\u017eou absorbovat poledn\u00ed \u0161pi\u010dky, stabilizovat frekvence a kompenzovat kr\u00e1tkodob\u00e9 v\u00fdkyvy. Modern\u00ed ekonomika v\u0161ak mus\u00ed b\u00fdt schopna p\u0159e\u017e\u00edt nejen noc, ale i n\u011bkolik dn\u00ed s n\u00edzkou produkc\u00ed v\u011btrn\u00e9 a sol\u00e1rn\u00ed energie. B\u011bhem del\u0161\u00edch obdob\u00ed n\u00edzk\u00e9 produkce v\u011btrn\u00e9 a sol\u00e1rn\u00ed energie rostou po\u017eadavky na \u00falo\u017ei\u0161t\u011b do velikost\u00ed, kter\u00e9 se v sou\u010dasn\u00fdch politick\u00fdch pl\u00e1nech expanze sotva zohled\u0148uj\u00ed.\u00a0<\/span>I tuto anal\u00fdzu jsme ji\u017e provedli<\/span><\/a>\u00a0.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pro sv\u011bt poh\u00e1n\u011bn\u00fd prim\u00e1rn\u011b sol\u00e1rn\u00ed energi\u00ed a bateriemi And\u00f8l vypo\u010d\u00edt\u00e1v\u00e1 nezbytnou ro\u010dn\u00ed expanzi sol\u00e1rn\u00ed energie o p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 2 300 gigawatt\u016f. Tuto kapacitu by doplnilo p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 8 000 gigawatthodin nov\u00fdch bateriov\u00fdch \u00falo\u017ei\u0161\u0165 ro\u010dn\u011b. To by bylo zhruba t\u0159icetin\u00e1sobek \u00falo\u017en\u00e9 kapacity p\u0159idan\u00e9 v roce 2025 \u2013 a bez dostate\u010dn\u00e9 sol\u00e1rn\u00ed produkce by to sotva poskytovalo dostatek energie na typick\u00fd den.<\/span><\/p>\n

P\u0159i dne\u0161n\u00edch cen\u00e1ch by tyto baterie st\u00e1ly zhruba jeden a\u017e jeden a p\u016fl bilionu dolar\u016f ro\u010dn\u011b. To je jen za v\u00fdstavbu a instalaci. Druh\u00fd den rezervy n\u00e1klady zdvojn\u00e1sob\u00ed, t\u00fdden je mnohon\u00e1sobn\u011b zn\u00e1sob\u00ed. Baterie se tak\u00e9 opot\u0159ebov\u00e1vaj\u00ed a je t\u0159eba je vym\u011bnit \u2013 a pot\u0159ebn\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edrodn\u00ed zdroje pro to nejsou zdaleka snadno dostupn\u00e9. Syst\u00e9m, kter\u00fd d\u00edky neust\u00e1le rostouc\u00edm investic\u00edm v \u0159\u00e1du bilion\u016f z\u00edsk\u00e1 jen n\u011bkolik hodin nav\u00edc v energetick\u00e9 bezpe\u010dnosti, nelze prod\u00e1vat jako levn\u00fd zdroj energie.<\/span><\/p>\n

Dokonce i \u010dasto diskutovan\u00e1 praxe v\u00fdm\u011bny elekt\u0159iny se sousedn\u00edmi zem\u011bmi \u0159e\u0161\u00ed probl\u00e9m jen \u010d\u00e1ste\u010dn\u011b. Rozs\u00e1hl\u00e9 pov\u011btrnostn\u00ed vzorce ovliv\u0148uj\u00ed cel\u00e9 regiony, nikoli jednotliv\u00e9 v\u011btrn\u00e9 farmy. Pokud N\u011bmecko, Francie, Belgie, Nizozemsko a D\u00e1nsko zaznamenaj\u00ed sou\u010dasn\u011b slab\u00fd v\u00edtr, dal\u0161\u00ed hrani\u010dn\u00ed elektrick\u00e9 veden\u00ed nepom\u016f\u017ee. Elekt\u0159inu lze dov\u00e1\u017eet pouze tehdy, pokud je jinde skute\u010dn\u011b p\u0159ebytek.<\/span><\/p>\n

V\u00edce ne\u017e 60 bilion\u016f dolar\u016f na v\u00fdrobu elekt\u0159iny<\/span><\/h3>\n

And\u00f8l odhaduje n\u00e1klady jen na nezbytn\u00e1 za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed na v\u00fdrobu energie na v\u00edce ne\u017e 60 bilion\u016f (60 000 miliard) dolar\u016f. A to je konzervativn\u00ed odhad, proto\u017ee v\u00fdrazn\u011b zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00e1 popt\u00e1vka po pot\u0159ebn\u00fdch materi\u00e1lech tak\u00e9 zv\u00fd\u0161\u00ed jejich ceny. V tomto \u010d\u00edsle nav\u00edc nejsou pln\u011b zahrnuty ani roz\u0161i\u0159ov\u00e1n\u00ed s\u00edt\u011b, skladov\u00e1n\u00ed energie, rezervn\u00ed elektr\u00e1rny a elektrifikace spot\u0159ebitel\u016f. Vozidla, topn\u00e9 syst\u00e9my, ocel\u00e1rny, chemick\u00e9 z\u00e1vody, lod\u011b, stavebn\u00ed stroje, zem\u011bd\u011blsk\u00e9 stroje a \u010d\u00e1sti leteck\u00e9ho pr\u016fmyslu by musely b\u00fdt nahrazeny nebo z\u00e1sadn\u011b p\u0159estav\u011bny. V\u00fdroba hnojiv a surovin by tak\u00e9 vy\u017eadovala podstatn\u011b v\u00edce elekt\u0159iny.<\/span><\/p>\n

To zvy\u0161uje celkov\u00e9 n\u00e1klady na \u0159\u00e1dov\u011b n\u011bkolik let glob\u00e1ln\u00edho ekonomick\u00e9ho v\u00fdkonu. Ale ani pen\u00edze by probl\u00e9m nevy\u0159e\u0161ily. Chyb\u00ed v\u00fdrobn\u00ed kapacita, suroviny, in\u017een\u00fd\u0159i, kvalifikovan\u00ed pracovn\u00edci, p\u0159\u00edstavy, elektrick\u00e9 veden\u00ed a povolovac\u00ed procesy. Politici u moci mohou schv\u00e1lit biliony dolar\u016f na kompletn\u00ed energetickou transformaci, ale nemohou si jen tak vykouzlit des\u00edtky tis\u00edc jadern\u00fdch elektr\u00e1ren, miliony v\u011btrn\u00fdch turb\u00edn a glob\u00e1ln\u00ed energetick\u00e9 s\u00edt\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n

Prob\u00edhaj\u00edc\u00ed investice do n\u00e1hrady jsou tak\u00e9 zcela podce\u0148ov\u00e1ny. V\u011btrn\u00e9 turb\u00edny, sol\u00e1rn\u00ed panely a baterie je t\u0159eba vym\u011bnit po n\u011bkolika desetilet\u00edch a velkou \u010d\u00e1st z nich nelze ani skute\u010dn\u011b recyklovat. Masivn\u00ed expanze by neskon\u010dila v roce 2050. Velk\u00e1 \u010d\u00e1st instalac\u00ed postaven\u00fdch do t\u00e9 doby by ji\u017e musela b\u00fdt vym\u011bn\u011bna. A to by byl pr\u016fb\u011b\u017en\u00fd, ka\u017edoro\u010dn\u00ed proces, kter\u00fd by vy\u017eadoval trvale vysok\u00e9 finan\u010dn\u00ed a zdrojov\u00e9 v\u00fddaje.<\/span><\/p>\n

Postupn\u00e9 vy\u0159azov\u00e1n\u00ed fosiln\u00edch paliv se st\u00e1v\u00e1 hrozbou pro dod\u00e1vky<\/span><\/h3>\n

And\u00f8l proto varuje p\u0159ed p\u0159ed\u010dasn\u00fdm ukon\u010den\u00edm nov\u00fdch ropn\u00fdch a plyn\u00e1rensk\u00fdch projekt\u016f. St\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00ed pole ka\u017edoro\u010dn\u011b ztr\u00e1cej\u00ed \u010d\u00e1st sv\u00e9 produk\u010dn\u00ed kapacity. Bez investic do nov\u00fdch zdroj\u016f a produk\u010dn\u00edch oblast\u00ed klesne nab\u00eddka dlouho p\u0159edt\u00edm, ne\u017e bude k dispozici \u00fapln\u00e1 n\u00e1hrada. V\u00fdsledkem by byl masivn\u011b rostouc\u00ed ceny, nedostatek dod\u00e1vek a nov\u00e9 geopolitick\u00e9 z\u00e1vislosti.<\/span><\/p>\n

Bohat\u00e9 n\u00e1rody si zpo\u010d\u00e1tku mohly dovolit vz\u00e1cn\u00e9 energetick\u00e9 zdroje. V chud\u0161\u00edch zem\u00edch by vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed ceny p\u0159\u00edmo ovlivnily zem\u011bd\u011blstv\u00ed, v\u00fdrobu hnojiv, chlazen\u00ed, dopravu a dod\u00e1vky potravin. Pr\u00e1v\u011b v t\u011bchto zem\u00edch v\u0161ak dostupn\u00e9 dod\u00e1vky energie ur\u010duj\u00ed hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00fd rozvoj, zdrav\u00ed a d\u00e9lku \u017eivota. Um\u011ble vytvo\u0159en\u00e1 mezera v dod\u00e1vk\u00e1ch by nezachr\u00e1nila klima, ale nejh\u016f\u0159e by zas\u00e1hla nejchud\u0161\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

And\u00f8lovo varov\u00e1n\u00ed p\u0159ed miliardami \u00famrt\u00ed v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b n\u00e1hl\u00e9ho ukon\u010den\u00ed v\u00fdroby ropy m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt p\u0159ehnan\u00e9. J\u00e1dro jeho prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed v\u0161ak z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 platn\u00e9: ropa a plyn nejsou jen paliva. Jsou pot\u0159ebn\u00e9 pro hnojiva, plasty, l\u00e9ky, stavebn\u00ed materi\u00e1ly, stroje, dopravu a nespo\u010det pr\u016fmyslov\u00fdch proces\u016f. Politicky vynucen\u00e9 ukon\u010den\u00ed v\u00fdroby bez dostate\u010dn\u00fdch alternativ by m\u011blo d\u016fsledky, kter\u00e9 sahaj\u00ed daleko za vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed \u00fa\u010dty za elekt\u0159inu.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u010cist\u00e1 nulov\u00e1 produkce selh\u00e1v\u00e1 kv\u016fli pr\u016fmyslov\u00e9 realit\u011b<\/span><\/h3>\n

Podle And\u00f8lova modelu vy\u017eaduje dosa\u017een\u00ed nulov\u00fdch \u010dist\u00fdch emis\u00ed do roku 2050 roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed elektr\u00e1rny a infrastruktury, k jak\u00e9mu se \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e1 ekonomika v historii ani nep\u0159ibl\u00ed\u017eila. Tento v\u00fdpo\u010det ji\u017e p\u0159edpokl\u00e1d\u00e1 zna\u010dn\u00e9 zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed efektivity a tlumen\u00fd r\u016fst popt\u00e1vky. P\u0159esto zb\u00fdvaj\u00ed miliony elektr\u00e1ren, des\u00edtky tis\u00edc reaktor\u016f, obrovsk\u00e1 \u00falo\u017ei\u0161t\u011b, nov\u00e9 s\u00edt\u011b a n\u00e1klady p\u0159esahuj\u00edc\u00ed 60 bilion\u016f dolar\u016f. Z\u00e1padn\u00ed vl\u00e1dy na tento rozsah reaguj\u00ed z\u00e1kazy, uhl\u00edkov\u00fdmi dan\u011bmi a st\u00e1le nov\u00fdmi c\u00edlov\u00fdmi term\u00edny. Nedok\u00e1\u017eou p\u0159edlo\u017eit spolehlivou anal\u00fdzu celkov\u00fdch n\u00e1klad\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n

M\u00edsto toho jsou prezentov\u00e1ny ceny v\u011btrn\u00e9 a sol\u00e1rn\u00ed energie, kter\u00e9 nezohled\u0148uj\u00ed skladov\u00e1n\u00ed energie, rezervn\u00ed elektr\u00e1rny, stabilizaci s\u00edt\u011b a investice do n\u00e1hrady. To umo\u017e\u0148uje vypo\u010d\u00edtat n\u00edzk\u00e9 n\u00e1klady na jakoukoli technologii. Sv\u011bt bude po dlouhou dobu soub\u011b\u017en\u011b pot\u0159ebovat v\u011btrnou energii, sol\u00e1rn\u00ed energii, jadernou energii, vodn\u00ed energii, ropu, plyn a uhl\u00ed. Technologick\u00fd pokrok m\u016f\u017ee postupn\u011b sni\u017eovat pod\u00edl fosiln\u00edch paliv. Nucen\u00e9 ukon\u010den\u00ed do 25 let naopak ohro\u017euje dod\u00e1vky energie, prosperitu a politickou stabilitu. Nulov\u00e1 \u010dist\u00e1 emisn\u00ed hodnota nen\u00ed realistick\u00fd energetick\u00fd pl\u00e1n. Je to politick\u00fd c\u00edl bez dostate\u010dn\u00e9ho po\u010dtu elektr\u00e1ren, cenov\u011b dostupn\u00e9ho skladov\u00e1n\u00ed a pr\u016fmyslov\u00e9 z\u00e1kladny.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Nulov\u00e9 \u010dist\u00e9 emise do roku 2050 jsou ji\u017e dlouho standardn\u00edm prvkem z\u00e1padn\u00ed politiky. Vl\u00e1dy rozhoduj\u00ed…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":112523,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,285,45],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/112522"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=112522"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/112522\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/112523"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=112522"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=112522"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=112522"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}