{"id":112405,"date":"2026-08-05T00:24:15","date_gmt":"2026-08-04T22:24:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=112405"},"modified":"2026-08-04T08:18:17","modified_gmt":"2026-08-04T06:18:17","slug":"larry-c-johnson-moznost-iranskeho-protiutoku","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/08\/05\/larry-c-johnson-moznost-iranskeho-protiutoku\/","title":{"rendered":"Larry C. Johnson: Mo\u017enost \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9ho proti\u00fatoku"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Zde je nejnov\u011bj\u0161\u00ed hodnocen\u00ed Karla Millera:<\/span><\/p>\n

KONTROLA NAD ESKALAC\u00cd<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n

Rozs\u00e1hl\u00e1 americko-izraelsk\u00e1 vojensk\u00e1 kampa\u0148 proti \u00cdr\u00e1nu by vytvo\u0159ila re\u00e1ln\u00e9 riziko, \u017ee \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e1 odveta by se zpo\u010d\u00e1tku zam\u011b\u0159ila na nejkoncentrovan\u011bj\u0161\u00ed izraelsk\u00e9 palivov\u00e9 syst\u00e9my. N\u00e1sledn\u011b by se tlak mohl roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159it na rafinerie, za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed na zkapaln\u011bn\u00fd zemn\u00ed plyn (LNG), dod\u00e1vky energie a vody, skladovac\u00ed kapacity a exportn\u00ed infrastrukturu st\u00e1t\u016f Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu (GCC), pokud by tyto st\u00e1ty byly vn\u00edm\u00e1ny jako podporuj\u00edc\u00ed kampa\u0148.<\/span><\/p>\n

Strategick\u00e9 nebezpe\u010d\u00ed nespo\u010d\u00edv\u00e1 v jedin\u00e9m po\u0161kozen\u00e9m syst\u00e9mu. Sp\u00ed\u0161e spo\u010d\u00edv\u00e1 v mo\u017enosti, \u017ee n\u011bkolik \u00fazce propojen\u00fdch syst\u00e9m\u016f by mohlo selhat rychleji, ne\u017e bude mo\u017en\u00e9 mobilizovat z\u00e1lo\u017en\u00ed nap\u00e1jen\u00ed, oprav\u00e1rensk\u00e9 kapacity a nouzovou logistiku.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tato obrann\u00e1 anal\u00fdza p\u0159edpokl\u00e1d\u00e1, \u017ee prvn\u00ed odvetn\u00fd \u00fader by byl nam\u00ed\u0159en proti Izraeli, vzhledem k jeho p\u0159\u00edm\u00e9mu zapojen\u00ed do v\u00e1lky a skute\u010dnosti, \u017ee jeho n\u00e1rodn\u00ed palivov\u00fd syst\u00e9m je soust\u0159ed\u011bn pouze na dv\u011b rafinerie. Model pot\u00e9 zkoum\u00e1 druhou f\u00e1zi eskalace, v n\u00ed\u017e by se syst\u00e9my vybran\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu mohly dostat pod tlak, pokud by jejich vzdu\u0161n\u00fd prostor, vojensk\u00e9 z\u00e1kladny, logistika, zpravodajsk\u00e1 podpora, dod\u00e1vky energie nebo politick\u00e1 shoda byly pova\u017eov\u00e1ny za nezbytn\u00e9 pro podporu kampan\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n

Region\u00e1ln\u00ed syst\u00e9m se skl\u00e1d\u00e1 z n\u011bkolika n\u00e1rodn\u00edch s\u00edt\u00ed, kter\u00e9 se sice na map\u011b jev\u00ed odli\u0161n\u011b, ale ve skute\u010dnosti jsou z\u00e1visl\u00e9 na omezen\u00e9m po\u010dtu rafin\u00e9ri\u00ed, za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed na zkapaln\u011bn\u00fd zemn\u00ed plyn (LNG), sd\u00edlen\u00fdch dodavatelsk\u00fdch s\u00edt\u00ed, skladovac\u00edch syst\u00e9m\u016f, n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00edch p\u0159\u00edstav\u016f a \u200b\u200bpotrubn\u00edch koridor\u016f. Ve v\u0161ech zem\u00edch existuj\u00ed stejn\u00e9 fyzick\u00e9 a obchodn\u00ed z\u00e1vislosti: spolehliv\u00e9 dod\u00e1vky energie, \u0159\u00eddic\u00ed syst\u00e9my, segregace produkt\u016f, p\u0159\u00edstup k n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00edm tras\u00e1m, n\u00e1hradn\u00ed d\u00edly, kvalifikovan\u00fd person\u00e1l a akceptace poji\u0161\u0165ovnami.<\/span><\/p>\n

Izraeli chyb\u00ed geograficky diverzifikovan\u00fd rafin\u00e9rsk\u00fd syst\u00e9m. Rafinerie Haifa\/Bazan a A\u0161dod nesou prakticky ve\u0161kerou n\u00e1rodn\u00ed z\u00e1t\u011b\u017e spojenou s produkc\u00ed nafty a petroleje\/letadlov\u00e9ho paliva. V\u011bt\u0161\u00ed rafin\u00e9rsk\u00fd komplex v Haif\u011b dod\u00e1v\u00e1 p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b dv\u011b t\u0159etiny celkov\u00e9 produkce st\u0159edn\u00edch destil\u00e1t\u016f a kolem 70 procent nafty. Pokud by Haifa zkrachovala, A\u0161dod by byl jedinou v\u00fdznamnou dom\u00e1c\u00ed alternativou.<\/span><\/p>\n

Haifa\/Bazan p\u0159edstavuje \u00fast\u0159edn\u00ed slab\u00e9 m\u00edsto v izraelsk\u00fdch dod\u00e1vk\u00e1ch paliva, proto\u017ee kombinuje nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed rafin\u00e9rskou kapacitu s \u0159adou propojen\u00fdch syst\u00e9m\u016f dod\u00e1vek. Budouc\u00ed naru\u0161en\u00ed by nemuselo nutn\u011b zni\u010dit ve\u0161kerou ropu nebo zpracovatelsk\u00e1 za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed, aby vyvolalo n\u00e1rodn\u00ed deficit dod\u00e1vek. V\u00fdpadek dod\u00e1vek energie, v\u00fdroby p\u00e1ry, dod\u00e1vek vod\u00edku, intern\u00edch p\u0159enosov\u00fdch syst\u00e9m\u016f, \u0159\u00eddic\u00edch za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed, skladovac\u00edch n\u00e1dr\u017e\u00ed nebo certifikace produkt\u016f by mohl sou\u010dasn\u011b ochromit n\u011bkolik v\u00fdrobn\u00edch linek.<\/span><\/p>\n

V p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dan\u00e9m sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159i Haifa produkuje p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 57 600 barel\u016f nafty denn\u011b a 10 700 barel\u016f leteck\u00e9ho paliva nebo petroleje. Pokud by se Haifa uzav\u0159ela a A\u0161dod by z\u016fstal v provozu, dom\u00e1c\u00ed dod\u00e1vky st\u0159edn\u00edch destil\u00e1t\u016f by klesly na p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 36 000 barel\u016f denn\u011b. P\u0159i trval\u00e9 popt\u00e1vce kolem 88 000 barel\u016f denn\u011b by to vytvo\u0159ilo mezeru v dod\u00e1vk\u00e1ch p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 52 000 barel\u016f denn\u011b \u2013 a to i p\u0159ed dopln\u011bn\u00edm z\u00e1sob, zapo\u010dten\u00edm ztr\u00e1t z dopravy nebo spln\u011bn\u00edm po\u017eadavk\u016f na kvalitu.<\/span><\/p>\n

A\u0161dod je strategicky d\u016fle\u017eit\u00fd m\u00e9n\u011b kv\u016fli sv\u00e9 absolutn\u00ed velikosti ne\u017e proto, \u017ee p\u0159edstavuje jedinou v\u00fdznamnou dom\u00e1c\u00ed alternativu. Pokud by A\u0161dod zkrachoval, zat\u00edmco Haifa by pokra\u010dovala v provozu, v dlouhodob\u00e9m horizontu by vznikl deficit p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 19 700 barel\u016f denn\u011b. Tuto mezeru by bylo mo\u017en\u00e9 vyplnit pouze variabiln\u00edmi dovozn\u00edmi dod\u00e1vkami a kontrolovan\u00fdm spol\u00e9h\u00e1n\u00edm se na st\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00ed z\u00e1soby, pokud by vykl\u00e1dka, certifikace kvality, skladov\u00e1n\u00ed a dom\u00e1c\u00ed distribuce nad\u00e1le fungovaly hladce.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pokud by ob\u011b rafinerie selhaly sou\u010dasn\u011b, dom\u00e1c\u00ed produkce st\u0159edn\u00edch destil\u00e1t\u016f by klesla z p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 104 300 barel\u016f denn\u011b na nulu. Celkov\u00e1 popt\u00e1vka ve v\u00fd\u0161i p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 88 000 barel\u016f denn\u011b by pak musela b\u00fdt v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b trval\u00e9ho v\u00fdvoje uspokojena ze st\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00edch z\u00e1sob a dovozu. To by p\u0159ekro\u010dilo kapacitu b\u011b\u017en\u00e9ho spotov\u00e9ho trhu a vy\u017eadovalo by to mimo\u0159\u00e1dn\u00e9 alokace od spojenc\u016f, vl\u00e1dn\u00ed intervence a funguj\u00edc\u00ed p\u0159\u00edstup k dod\u00e1vk\u00e1m.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nejpravd\u011bpodobn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 okam\u017eit\u00e9 odvety by se zam\u011b\u0159il na Izrael, vzhledem k jeho vysoce koncentrovan\u00e9mu palivov\u00e9mu syst\u00e9mu, siln\u00e9 z\u00e1vislosti arm\u00e1dy na palivu a selh\u00e1n\u00ed obou rafin\u00e9ri\u00ed, kter\u00e9 by bylo mo\u017en\u00e9 kompenzovat pouze nep\u0159eru\u0161ovan\u00fdm dovozem a omezen\u00fdmi z\u00e1sobami.<\/span><\/p>\n

Roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed kampan\u011b na syst\u00e9my st\u00e1t\u016f Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu by m\u011blo mnohem v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed region\u00e1ln\u00ed a glob\u00e1ln\u00ed d\u016fsledky, proto\u017ee by to sou\u010dasn\u011b ovlivnilo rafinerie, za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed na zkapaln\u011bn\u00fd zemn\u00ed plyn (LNG), dod\u00e1vky elekt\u0159iny a vody, skladovac\u00ed kapacity, p\u0159\u00edstavy a alternativn\u00ed exportn\u00ed trasy.<\/span><\/p>\n

Kl\u00ed\u010dovou ot\u00e1zkou by nakonec bylo, zda je rychlost syst\u00e9mov\u00fdch naru\u0161en\u00ed vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e rychlost, s jakou lze organizovat n\u00e1hradn\u00ed dod\u00e1vky, opravy a komer\u010dn\u00ed obnoven\u00ed provozu.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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Zdroj<\/span><\/a><\/span><\/h3>\n

 <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Zde je nejnov\u011bj\u0161\u00ed hodnocen\u00ed Karla Millera: KONTROLA NAD ESKALAC\u00cd Rozs\u00e1hl\u00e1 americko-izraelsk\u00e1 vojensk\u00e1 kampa\u0148 proti \u00cdr\u00e1nu…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":112406,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,38,107,2647,37],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/112405"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=112405"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/112405\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/112406"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=112405"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=112405"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=112405"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}