{"id":112334,"date":"2026-08-04T00:35:58","date_gmt":"2026-08-03T22:35:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=112334"},"modified":"2026-08-03T17:32:17","modified_gmt":"2026-08-03T15:32:17","slug":"trump-zastavil-utok-na-iran-ale-duvody-ktere-za-tim-staly-mohly-byt-velmi-odlisne","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/08\/04\/trump-zastavil-utok-na-iran-ale-duvody-ktere-za-tim-staly-mohly-byt-velmi-odlisne\/","title":{"rendered":"Trump zastavil \u00fatok na \u00cdr\u00e1n \u2013 ale d\u016fvody, kter\u00e9 za t\u00edm st\u00e1ly, mohly b\u00fdt velmi odli\u0161n\u00e9"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"fb-root\"><\/div>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><span dir=\"auto\">Americk\u00fd prezident Donald Trump prohl\u00e1sil, \u017ee odvolal bezprost\u0159edn\u00ed \u00fatok na \u00cdr\u00e1n pot\u00e9, co Teher\u00e1n a n\u011bkolik bl\u00edzkov\u00fdchodn\u00edch st\u00e1t\u016f po\u017e\u00e1daly o zdr\u017eenlivost a p\u0159ijaly obrysy dohody.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">B\u00edl\u00fd d\u016fm toto rozhodnut\u00ed propaguje jako v\u00fdsledek americk\u00e9 s\u00edly: Washington byl p\u0159ipraven za\u00fato\u010dit, ale dal \u00cdr\u00e1nu posledn\u00ed diplomatickou \u0161anci.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Geopolitick\u00fd korespondent Pepe Escobar v\u0161ak v ned\u00e1vn\u00e9m video rozhovoru pro\u00a0<\/span><strong><span dir=\"auto\">Transition Protocol (Power Shift)<\/span><\/strong><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0vykresluje zcela jin\u00fd obr\u00e1zek . S odvol\u00e1n\u00edm na informace ze zdroj\u016f, o kter\u00fdch tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee se p\u0159\u00edmo \u00fa\u010dastnily rozhovor\u016f, tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee \u00cdr\u00e1n o pauzu nepo\u017e\u00e1dal. USA a jejich spojenci v Persk\u00e9m z\u00e1livu si naopak uv\u011bdomili, \u017ee nov\u00fd \u00fatok by m\u011bl prakticky nekontrolovateln\u00e9 n\u00e1sledky.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Diskusi moderoval Zulfiqar Ali. S\u00e1m Escobar zd\u016fraz\u0148uje, \u017ee ne v\u0161echny podrobnosti bylo mo\u017en\u00e9 okam\u017eit\u011b a nez\u00e1visle potvrdit. N\u011bkter\u00e9 informace jsou spolehliv\u00e9, zat\u00edmco jin\u00e9 detaily poch\u00e1zej\u00ed z vysoce postaven\u00fdch zdroj\u016f, ale v dob\u011b vys\u00edl\u00e1n\u00ed nebylo mo\u017en\u00e9 je pln\u011b ov\u011b\u0159it.<\/span><\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\"><iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"BREAKING PEPE Breaks: Trump zastavil \u00fatok na \u00cdr\u00e1n - SKUTE\u010cN\u00dd P\u0158\u00cdB\u011aH B\u00cdL\u00dd D\u016eM LHAL o \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9m varov\u00e1n\u00ed 10:1\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/3JocrS8mJo0?feature=oembed\" width=\"800\" height=\"450\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\" data-mce-fragment=\"1\"><\/iframe><\/div>\n<\/figure>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span dir=\"auto\">Teher\u00e1n si sta\u017een\u00ed vojsk nevykl\u00e1d\u00e1 jako znamen\u00ed m\u00edru.<\/span><\/h2>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Podle Escobara \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 veden\u00ed neinterpretuje zru\u0161en\u00ed americk\u00e9ho \u00fatoku jako nab\u00eddku m\u00edru.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">V Teher\u00e1nu je Trumpovo rozhodnut\u00ed interpretov\u00e1no jako p\u0159izn\u00e1n\u00ed, \u017ee Washington dos\u00e1hl hranic sv\u00e9ho vojensk\u00e9ho a politick\u00e9ho tlaku. Fakta v ter\u00e9nu se st\u00e1le v\u00edce obracej\u00ed proti Spojen\u00fdm st\u00e1t\u016fm.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">\u00cdr\u00e1n reagoval na sta\u017een\u00ed americk\u00fdch vojsk a zasv\u011bcenci tento krok neinterpretuj\u00ed jako znamen\u00ed m\u00edru. \u00cdr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 veden\u00ed to sp\u00ed\u0161e vn\u00edm\u00e1 jako znamen\u00ed, \u017ee Washingtonu zb\u00fdv\u00e1 jen m\u00e1lo sch\u016fdn\u00fdch mo\u017enost\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span dir=\"auto\">\u00cdr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 varov\u00e1n\u00ed: Odveta v pom\u011bru 10:1<\/span><\/h2>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Nejv\u00fdbu\u0161n\u011bj\u0161\u00ed bod rozhovoru se t\u00fdk\u00e1 \u00fadajn\u00e9 nov\u00e9 \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 doktr\u00edny odvety.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">D\u0159\u00edve se uv\u00e1d\u011bl pom\u011br dvou \u00fatok\u016f na jednu. \u00datok na \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 c\u00edle by se proto setkal s dvojn\u00e1sobn\u00fdm po\u010dtem \u00fatok\u016f na nep\u0159\u00e1telsk\u00e1 nebo spojeneck\u00e1 za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Tato hranice se nyn\u00ed \u00fadajn\u011b drasticky zv\u00fd\u0161ila.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Podle Escobara dal Teher\u00e1n jasn\u011b najevo, \u017ee jak\u00fdkoli \u00fatok na \u00edr\u00e1nskou energetickou infrastrukturu vyvol\u00e1 odvetu v pom\u011bru\u00a0<\/span><strong><span dir=\"auto\">deset ku jedn\u00e9<\/span><\/strong><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0. Za ka\u017ed\u00fd zasa\u017een\u00fd \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fd energetick\u00fd c\u00edl by mohlo b\u00fdt napadeno deset za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed pat\u0159\u00edc\u00edch americk\u00fdm partner\u016fm v Persk\u00e9m z\u00e1livu a za jeho hranicemi.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">To by se vztahovalo nejen na vojensk\u00e1 za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed, ale potenci\u00e1ln\u011b i na:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span dir=\"auto\">Ropn\u00e1 pole a rafinerie,<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span dir=\"auto\">Exportn\u00ed termin\u00e1ly,<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span dir=\"auto\">Elektrick\u00e9 s\u00edt\u011b,<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span dir=\"auto\">Odsolovac\u00ed za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed,<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span dir=\"auto\">P\u0159\u00edstavy a dopravn\u00ed infrastruktura.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Takov\u00fd proti\u00fatok by mohl ot\u0159\u00e1st celou ekonomickou architekturou st\u00e1t\u016f Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu a okam\u017eit\u011b spustit glob\u00e1ln\u00ed energetick\u00fd a finan\u010dn\u00ed \u0161ok.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span dir=\"auto\">Sa\u00fadsk\u00e1 Ar\u00e1bie \u00fadajn\u011b na Trumpa tla\u010dila, aby se st\u00e1hl.<\/span><\/h2>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Podle verze prezentovan\u00e9 v rozhovoru to nebyli \u00cdr\u00e1nci, kdo po\u017e\u00e1dal Washington o odklad.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Sp\u00ed\u0161e se \u0159\u00edk\u00e1, \u017ee Sa\u00fadsk\u00e1 Ar\u00e1bie a dal\u0161\u00ed st\u00e1ty Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu spustily poplach.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Escobar tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee sa\u00fadskoarabsk\u00fd korunn\u00ed princ Mohammed bin Salm\u00e1n osobn\u011b nal\u00e9hal na Trumpa, aby \u00fatok zru\u0161il. Rij\u00e1d vyslal jasn\u00fd vzkaz: Sa\u00fadsk\u00e1 Ar\u00e1bie a ostatn\u00ed st\u00e1ty Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu nebyly p\u0159ipraveny zaplatit cenu za dal\u0161\u00ed americk\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 dobrodru\u017estv\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">V p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b eskalace by monarchie v Persk\u00e9m z\u00e1livu musely o\u010dek\u00e1vat odvetn\u00e9 \u00fadery proti vlastn\u00ed energetick\u00e9 a vodohospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9 infrastruktu\u0159e. Zejm\u00e9na odsolovac\u00ed za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed jsou \u017eivotn\u011b d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e1 pro z\u00e1sobov\u00e1n\u00ed regionu vodou. Jejich zni\u010den\u00ed by m\u011blo nejen ekonomick\u00e9, ale i okam\u017eit\u00e9 soci\u00e1ln\u00ed d\u016fsledky.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Pokud jsou tyto \u00fadaje p\u0159esn\u00e9, Trump \u00fatok neodvolal z pozice s\u00edly, ale pod masivn\u00edm tlakem spojenc\u016f, kte\u0159\u00ed by byli \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fdmi protiopat\u0159en\u00edmi p\u0159\u00edmo zasa\u017eeni.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span dir=\"auto\">Tajn\u00fd telefon\u00e1t mezi Ab\u00fa Zab\u00ed a Teher\u00e1nem<\/span><\/h2>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Dal\u0161\u00ed pozoruhodn\u00fd detail se t\u00fdk\u00e1 Spojen\u00fdch arabsk\u00fdch emir\u00e1t\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Podle Escobara m\u011bl emir\u00e1tsk\u00fd prezident Mohammed bin Zayed zhruba 40minutov\u00fd telefonick\u00fd rozhovor s \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fdm ministrem zahrani\u010d\u00ed. B\u011bhem tohoto rozhovoru vyj\u00e1d\u0159il p\u0159\u00e1n\u00ed trval\u00e9ho a dlouhodob\u00e9ho vztahu s \u00cdr\u00e1nem.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">To by samoz\u0159ejm\u011b byla v\u00fdznamn\u00e1 zm\u011bna.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Emir\u00e1ty jsou dlouhodob\u011b pova\u017eov\u00e1ny za bl\u00edzk\u00e9ho partnera Washingtonu a sou\u010d\u00e1st region\u00e1ln\u00ed fronty, jej\u00edm\u017e c\u00edlem je politicky i vojensky omezit Teher\u00e1n. Nyn\u00ed mo\u017en\u00e1 dosp\u011bly k z\u00e1v\u011bru, \u017ee p\u0159\u00edm\u00e1 dohoda s \u00cdr\u00e1nem je bezpe\u010dn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e \u00fa\u010dast na dal\u0161\u00ed eskalaci veden\u00e9 USA.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Escobar interpretuje telefon\u00e1t jako znamen\u00ed, \u017ee st\u00e1ty Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu se ji\u017e necht\u011bj\u00ed spol\u00e9hat pouze na Washington, pokud jde o jejich bezpe\u010dnost.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span dir=\"auto\">P\u00e1kist\u00e1n se st\u00e1v\u00e1 diplomatick\u00fdm mostem<\/span><\/h2>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Zd\u00e1 se, \u017ee P\u00e1kist\u00e1n hraje v tomto v\u00fdvoji kl\u00ed\u010dovou roli.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Podle Escobara \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fd ministr zahrani\u010d\u00ed telefonicky hovo\u0159il t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 dv\u011b hodiny s p\u00e1kist\u00e1nsk\u00fdm poln\u00edm mar\u0161\u00e1lem \u00c1simem Munirem. B\u011bhem tohoto hovoru Teher\u00e1n podrobn\u011b vysv\u011btlil sv\u016fj postoj po zru\u0161en\u00ed americk\u00e9ho \u00fatoku.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">P\u00e1kist\u00e1n nyn\u00ed funguje jako spojnice mezi:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span dir=\"auto\">\u00cdr\u00e1n,<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span dir=\"auto\">Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty,<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span dir=\"auto\">Sa\u00fadsk\u00e1 Ar\u00e1bie,<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span dir=\"auto\">Spojen\u00e9 arabsk\u00e9 emir\u00e1ty,<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span dir=\"auto\">ostatn\u00ed st\u00e1ty Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">\u00cdr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 poselstv\u00ed je jasn\u00e9: Washington se bu\u010f m\u016f\u017ee vr\u00e1tit k ji\u017e dohodnut\u00e9mu diplomatick\u00e9mu r\u00e1mci \u2013 nebo neexistuje \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e1 jin\u00e1 cesta ven.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span dir=\"auto\">\u00cdr\u00e1n odm\u00edt\u00e1 nov\u00e1 jedn\u00e1n\u00ed o ji\u017e dosa\u017een\u00fdch dohod\u00e1ch<\/span><\/h2>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Podle Escobara Teher\u00e1n nep\u0159ijme, aby byly ji\u017e dohodnut\u00e9 podm\u00ednky znovu projedn\u00e1v\u00e1ny.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">\u00cdr\u00e1n trv\u00e1 na tom, aby se ob\u011b strany vr\u00e1tily ke st\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00edmu memorandu. Po\u0159ad\u00ed jedn\u00e1n\u00ed ji\u017e bylo stanoveno a nebude se m\u011bnit.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">\u010c\u00edna tento postoj sd\u00edl\u00ed. Z pohledu Pekingu nen\u00ed co znovu projedn\u00e1vat; jedin\u00fdm rozhoduj\u00edc\u00edm faktorem je pln\u011bn\u00ed ji\u017e p\u0159ijat\u00fdch z\u00e1vazk\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">\u00cdr\u00e1nsk\u00fd \u0159\u00e1d je tedy:<\/span><\/p>\n<ol>\n<li><span dir=\"auto\">Diskuse o Hormuzsk\u00e9m pr\u016flivu<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span dir=\"auto\">Zru\u0161en\u00ed sankc\u00ed a uvoln\u011bn\u00ed zmrazen\u00fdch finan\u010dn\u00edch prost\u0159edk\u016f,<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span dir=\"auto\">Nov\u00e1 jadern\u00e1 jedn\u00e1n\u00ed se uskute\u010dn\u00ed a\u017e pot\u00e9.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Teher\u00e1n chce zabr\u00e1nit Washingtonu v tom, aby se okam\u017eit\u011b znovu zam\u011b\u0159il na jadernou ot\u00e1zku, dokud ekonomick\u00e9 a n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed spory z\u016fst\u00e1vaj\u00ed nevy\u0159e\u0161en\u00e9.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span dir=\"auto\">Modernizovan\u00e9 \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 zam\u011b\u0159ovac\u00ed syst\u00e9my p\u0159es Gwadar<\/span><\/h2>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Rozhovor tak\u00e9 obsahuje rozs\u00e1hl\u00e9 informace o \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 podpo\u0159e \u00cdr\u00e1nu.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Podle Escobara byly dal\u0161\u00ed komponenty pro \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fd satelitn\u00ed naviga\u010dn\u00ed syst\u00e9m\u00a0<\/span><strong><span dir=\"auto\">BeiDou<\/span><\/strong><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0p\u0159epraveny do \u00cdr\u00e1nu p\u0159es p\u00e1kist\u00e1nsk\u00fd hlubinn\u00fd p\u0159\u00edstav Gv\u00e1dar a pot\u00e9 po sou\u0161i.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">\u0158\u00edk\u00e1 se, \u017ee to zlep\u0161ilo \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 schopnosti v n\u011bkolika oblastech:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span dir=\"auto\">p\u0159esn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed zam\u011b\u0159ov\u00e1n\u00ed c\u00edle,<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span dir=\"auto\">lep\u0161\u00ed komunikace,<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span dir=\"auto\">Vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed odolnost proti elektronick\u00e9mu ru\u0161en\u00ed,<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span dir=\"auto\">efektivn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed operace s raketami a drony.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Moder\u00e1tor dodal, \u017ee s integrac\u00ed \u00fadajn\u011b pom\u00e1hali i p\u00e1kist\u00e1n\u0161t\u00ed vojen\u0161t\u00ed technici. To v\u00fdrazn\u011b zlep\u0161ilo \u00cdr\u00e1nskou schopnost monitorovat boji\u0161t\u011b a p\u0159esn\u011b zas\u00e1hnout c\u00edle b\u011bhem n\u011bkolika dn\u00ed. Tato tvrzen\u00ed dosud nebyla nez\u00e1visle ov\u011b\u0159ena.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Pokud jsou pravdiv\u00e9, byl by to kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fd d\u016fvod pro demonstrativn\u00ed sebev\u011bdom\u00ed Teher\u00e1nu.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span dir=\"auto\">\u00dadajn\u011b je p\u0159ipraveno 2 000 rychl\u00fdch \u00fato\u010dn\u00fdch \u010dlun\u016f.<\/span><\/h2>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Jako dal\u0161\u00ed odstra\u0161uj\u00edc\u00ed prost\u0159edek \u00fadajn\u011b \u00cdr\u00e1n informoval Washington o takzvan\u00e9 \u201ekom\u00e1\u0159\u00ed flotile\u201c.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Podle hostitele se flotila skl\u00e1d\u00e1 z p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 2 000 mal\u00fdch, rychl\u00fdch a ozbrojen\u00fdch \u010dlun\u016f, ka\u017ed\u00fd se dv\u011bma \u010dleny pos\u00e1dky. Tyto jednotky jsou p\u0159ipraveny k rychl\u00e9 mobilizaci.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Takov\u00e9 roje by byly obzvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b nebezpe\u010dn\u00e9 v \u00fazk\u00e9m Hormuzsk\u00e9m pr\u016flivu. Mohly by \u00fato\u010dit na v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e9 lod\u011b, tankery a z\u00e1sobovac\u00ed plavidla sou\u010dasn\u011b z r\u016fzn\u00fdch sm\u011br\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">\u00dadajn\u00e1 flotila tak dopl\u0148uje \u00edr\u00e1nskou hrozbu desetin\u00e1sobn\u00e9 odvety.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span dir=\"auto\">Hormus z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 rozhoduj\u00edc\u00ed p\u00e1kou<\/span><\/h2>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Trump tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee dohoda by m\u011bla v\u00e9st k okam\u017eit\u00e9mu a \u00fapln\u00e9mu otev\u0159en\u00ed Hormuzsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Escobar tuto verzi vyvrac\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Podle n\u011bj \u00cdr\u00e1n v \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b nesouhlasil s otev\u0159en\u00edm Hormuzsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu za americk\u00fdch podm\u00ednek. Z pohledu Teher\u00e1nu bude pr\u016fliv i nad\u00e1le kontrolov\u00e1n a spravov\u00e1n \u00cdr\u00e1nem. Jedn\u00e1n\u00ed o konkr\u00e9tn\u00edch modalit\u00e1ch t\u00fdkaj\u00edc\u00edch se Om\u00e1nu jsou mo\u017en\u00e1 \u2013 ale ne vzd\u00e1n\u00ed se \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 kontroly.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Hormuz tak z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 nejsiln\u011bj\u0161\u00edm prost\u0159edkem n\u00e1tlaku \u00cdr\u00e1nu.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Dokud m\u016f\u017ee Teher\u00e1n kontrolovat nebo blokovat pr\u016fjezd, m\u00e1 p\u0159\u00edm\u00fd vliv na:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span dir=\"auto\">Ceny ropy a plynu,<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span dir=\"auto\">glob\u00e1ln\u00ed obchod s LNG,<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span dir=\"auto\">Pojistn\u00e9,<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span dir=\"auto\">ekonomika st\u00e1t\u016f Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu,<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span dir=\"auto\">mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed finan\u010dn\u00ed trhy.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">\u00dapln\u00e9 otev\u0159en\u00ed bez jak\u00fdchkoli \u00fastupk\u016f by znamenalo, \u017ee by se \u00cdr\u00e1n dobrovoln\u011b vzdal sv\u00e9 nejd\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00ed strategick\u00e9 p\u00e1ky. To je p\u0159esn\u011b to, co by Teher\u00e1n m\u011bl odm\u00edtnout.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span dir=\"auto\">Americk\u00e9 z\u00e1kladny se st\u00e1vaj\u00ed rizikem<\/span><\/h2>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Escobar tak\u00e9 tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee \u010detn\u00e9 americk\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 z\u00e1kladny v z\u00e1padn\u00ed Asii ji\u017e nejsou jen symbolem americk\u00e9 moci.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Jsou st\u00e1le zraniteln\u011bj\u0161\u00edm c\u00edlem.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Dlouhodob\u00fdm c\u00edlem \u00cdr\u00e1nu je vytla\u010dit Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty z jeho region\u00e1ln\u00edho syst\u00e9mu z\u00e1kladen.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">V dob\u011b p\u0159esn\u00fdch raket, roj\u016f dron\u016f a modern\u00edch zam\u011b\u0159ovac\u00edch syst\u00e9m\u016f se velk\u00e9 pevn\u00e9 z\u00e1kladny mohou rychle st\u00e1t snadno identifikovateln\u00fdmi c\u00edli \u00fatoku.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">To, co po desetilet\u00ed slou\u017eilo jako n\u00e1stroj pro americkou projekci moci, by se tak mohlo st\u00e1t strategickou p\u0159ek\u00e1\u017ekou.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span dir=\"auto\">Washingtonsk\u00e9 v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e9 c\u00edle z\u0159ejm\u011b nebyly dosa\u017eeny<\/span><\/h2>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Escobar dosud p\u0159edkl\u00e1d\u00e1 usv\u011bd\u010duj\u00edc\u00ed hodnocen\u00ed konfliktu.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Podle jeho hodnocen\u00ed Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty nedos\u00e1hly \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9ho ze sv\u00fdch hlavn\u00edch c\u00edl\u016f:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span dir=\"auto\">\u00cdr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 kapacity nebyly zni\u010deny.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span dir=\"auto\">\u00cdr\u00e1nsk\u00fd st\u00e1t se nezhroutil.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span dir=\"auto\">K \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 zm\u011bn\u011b re\u017eimu nedo\u0161lo.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span dir=\"auto\">Hormuzsk\u00fd plyn nebyl otev\u0159en za americk\u00fdch podm\u00ednek.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span dir=\"auto\">\u00cdr\u00e1n nebyl odd\u011blen od Ruska a \u010c\u00edny.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Naopak: Teher\u00e1nsk\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 schopnosti jsou siln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed a spolupr\u00e1ce s Moskvou a Pekingem je u\u017e\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e d\u0159\u00edve.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">V\u00e1lka by tak urychlila p\u0159esn\u011b ten v\u00fdvoj, kter\u00e9mu cht\u011bl Washington ve skute\u010dnosti zabr\u00e1nit: u\u017e\u0161\u00ed strategick\u00e9 spojen\u00ed mezi \u00cdr\u00e1nem, \u010c\u00ednou a Ruskem.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span dir=\"auto\">B\u00edl\u00fd d\u016fm hovo\u0159\u00ed o s\u00edle \u2013 region vid\u00ed zranitelnost.<\/span><\/h2>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">\u00dast\u0159edn\u00edm poselstv\u00edm rozhovoru je:<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">B\u00edl\u00fd d\u016fm tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee Trump \u00fatok odvolal ze siln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed pozice.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Escobar a jeho partner v\u0161ak tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee \u00fatok byl zastaven, proto\u017ee:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span dir=\"auto\">\u00cdr\u00e1n pohrozil desetin\u00e1sobnou odvetou,<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span dir=\"auto\">Sa\u00fadsk\u00e1 Ar\u00e1bie a dal\u0161\u00ed st\u00e1ty Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu necht\u011bly n\u00e9st n\u00e1sledky,<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span dir=\"auto\">Energetick\u00e1 a vodn\u00ed infrastruktura regionu je extr\u00e9mn\u011b zraniteln\u00e1,<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span dir=\"auto\">Americk\u00e9 z\u00e1kladny jsou pod velk\u00fdm tlakem,<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span dir=\"auto\">Teher\u00e1n zlep\u0161il sv\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 schopnosti,<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span dir=\"auto\">Glob\u00e1ln\u00ed energetick\u00fd \u0161ok byl na spadnut\u00ed.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Zda lze v\u0161echny informace potvrdit, z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 nejasn\u00e9. S\u00e1m Escobar jasn\u011b uvedl, \u017ee n\u011bkter\u00e9 detaily v dob\u011b rozhovoru je\u0161t\u011b nebyly pln\u011b ov\u011b\u0159eny.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Ale i kdyby to byla jen \u010d\u00e1st pravdy, zru\u0161en\u00ed \u00fatoku by nebylo ani tak diplomatick\u00fdm triumfem jako sp\u00ed\u0161e zn\u00e1mkou zm\u011bn\u011bn\u00e9 mocensk\u00e9 dynamiky.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span dir=\"auto\">Z\u00e1v\u011br: \u017d\u00e1dn\u00e9 uvoln\u011bn\u00ed, ale nov\u00e1 f\u00e1ze<\/span><\/h2>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Zru\u0161en\u00ed americk\u00e9ho \u00fatoku automaticky neznamen\u00e1 m\u00edr.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Podle \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 interpretace to ve skute\u010dnosti potvrzuje, \u017ee odstra\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed funguje: Washington a jeho spojenci se ob\u00e1vaj\u00ed vojensk\u00fdch, ekonomick\u00fdch a soci\u00e1ln\u00edch d\u016fsledk\u016f dal\u0161\u00ed eskalace.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Teher\u00e1n se proto pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b sv\u00e9 strategie nez\u0159ekne, sp\u00ed\u0161e ji bude pova\u017eovat za ospravedln\u011bnou:<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Zdr\u017eenlivost, dokud nebude p\u0159ekro\u010dena \u010derven\u00e1 \u010d\u00e1ra \u2013 po n\u00ed\u017e by byla reakce pro USA a jejich region\u00e1ln\u00ed partnery t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 nesnesiteln\u00e1.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Dal\u0161\u00ed f\u00e1ze bude z\u00e1viset na t\u0159ech bodech:<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><span dir=\"auto\">Hormus, energetick\u00e1 a vodn\u00ed infrastruktura st\u00e1t\u016f Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu a americk\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 z\u00e1kladny v z\u00e1padn\u00ed Asii.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Trump se m\u016f\u017ee vr\u00e1tit ke st\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00edmu diplomatick\u00e9mu r\u00e1mci. Nebo m\u016f\u017ee znovu eskalovat a riskovat, \u017ee v\u00e1lka proti \u00cdr\u00e1nu pohlt\u00ed cel\u00fd region a glob\u00e1ln\u00ed ekonomiku.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-1185\" src=\"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/kuryr-podpis.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"84\" height=\"24\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Americk\u00fd prezident Donald Trump prohl\u00e1sil, \u017ee odvolal bezprost\u0159edn\u00ed \u00fatok na \u00cdr\u00e1n pot\u00e9, co Teher\u00e1n a&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":112335,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,38,1052,37,40],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/112334"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=112334"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/112334\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/112335"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=112334"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=112334"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=112334"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}