{"id":112135,"date":"2026-08-02T00:15:15","date_gmt":"2026-08-01T22:15:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=112135"},"modified":"2026-08-01T10:55:55","modified_gmt":"2026-08-01T08:55:55","slug":"od-blitzkriegu-k-nocni-mure-jak-se-valka-s-iranem-stala-nejvetsim-strategickym-zatezovym-testem-pro-usa","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/08\/02\/od-blitzkriegu-k-nocni-mure-jak-se-valka-s-iranem-stala-nejvetsim-strategickym-zatezovym-testem-pro-usa\/","title":{"rendered":"Od Blitzkriegu k no\u010dn\u00ed m\u016f\u0159e: Jak se v\u00e1lka s \u00cdr\u00e1nem stala nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edm strategick\u00fdm z\u00e1t\u011b\u017eov\u00fdm testem pro USA"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"fb-root\"><\/div>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><span dir=\"auto\">Podle novin\u00e1\u0159e Bena Nortona se v\u00e1lka proti \u00cdr\u00e1nu, kterou zah\u00e1jily Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty, st\u00e1le v\u00edce m\u011bn\u00ed ve strategickou, vojenskou a ekonomickou no\u010dn\u00ed m\u016fru Washingtonu. Co bylo zjevn\u011b pl\u00e1nov\u00e1no jako kr\u00e1tk\u00e1 operace k oslaben\u00ed nebo dokonce eliminaci \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9ho veden\u00ed, se protahuje, zapojuje dal\u0161\u00ed zem\u011b a tla\u010d\u00ed americk\u00e9 s\u00edly na hranice jejich dostupn\u00fdch zbrojn\u00edch zdroj\u016f.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Z\u00e1rove\u0148 rostou ztr\u00e1ty mezi americk\u00fdmi voj\u00e1ky a Pentagon je obvi\u0148ov\u00e1n ze zleh\u010dov\u00e1n\u00ed skute\u010dn\u00e9ho po\u010dtu mrtv\u00fdch a zran\u011bn\u00fdch. K tomu se p\u0159id\u00e1v\u00e1 zhor\u0161uj\u00edc\u00ed se energetick\u00e1 krize, jeliko\u017e Hormuzsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv i lodn\u00ed doprava v Rud\u00e9m mo\u0159i jsou pod rostouc\u00edm tlakem.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">To, co se \u00fadajn\u011b jednalo o omezenou v\u00e1lku, se tak stalo region\u00e1ln\u00edm po\u017e\u00e1rem, jeho\u017e ekonomick\u00e9 d\u016fsledky ji\u017e d\u00e1vno p\u0159esahuj\u00ed Bl\u00edzk\u00fd v\u00fdchod.<\/span><\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\"><iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"Trump je zoufal\u00fd, \u00cdr\u00e1n se vymyk\u00e1 kontrole.\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/HPBI8ukcA_4?feature=oembed\" width=\"800\" height=\"450\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\" data-mce-fragment=\"1\"><\/iframe><\/div>\n<\/figure>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span dir=\"auto\">V\u00e1lka bez z\u0159eteln\u00e9 \u00fanikov\u00e9 strategie<\/span><\/h2>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Podle Nortona nyn\u00ed v Trumpov\u011b administrativ\u011b prob\u00edh\u00e1 otev\u0159en\u00e1 debata o tom, jak v\u00e1lku ukon\u010dit. Odkazuje na zpr\u00e1vu NBC News, \u017ee prezident Donald Trump je na intern\u00edch sch\u016fzk\u00e1ch st\u00e1le v\u00edce frustrovan\u00fd, proto\u017ee se jeho nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed vl\u00e1dn\u00ed \u00fa\u0159edn\u00edci nemohou shodnout na jasn\u00e9 strategii.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Zdroje bl\u00edzk\u00e9 prezidentovi uv\u00e1d\u011bj\u00ed, \u017ee Trump neo\u010dek\u00e1val, \u017ee bude tak obt\u00ed\u017en\u00e9 donutit \u00cdr\u00e1n k dohod\u011b. Neexistoval ani skute\u010dn\u00fd pl\u00e1n na dobu trv\u00e1n\u00ed v\u00e1lky, ani jasn\u00e1 p\u0159edstava o tom, jak dos\u00e1hnout politick\u00e9ho c\u00edle.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Obzvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b znepokojiv\u00e9 je prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed vl\u00e1dn\u00edho \u00fa\u0159edn\u00edka citovan\u00e9 ve videu. Podle n\u011bj Washington \u010del\u00ed \u201estrategick\u00e9 por\u00e1\u017ece\u201c bez jasn\u00fdch politick\u00fdch sm\u011br\u016f nebo rozhodnut\u00ed o sv\u00e9m dal\u0161\u00edm sm\u011b\u0159ov\u00e1n\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Norton to interpretuje jako p\u0159izn\u00e1n\u00ed, \u017ee v\u00e1lka pro USA neprob\u00edh\u00e1 podle pl\u00e1nu. Vl\u00e1da zoufale hled\u00e1 cestu ven, ale z\u00e1rove\u0148 nechce p\u0159iznat, \u017ee nedos\u00e1hla sv\u00fdch p\u016fvodn\u00edch c\u00edl\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Trump tak \u010del\u00ed politick\u00e9mu dilematu: chce v\u00e1lku ukon\u010dit, ale mus\u00ed to v tuzemsku prezentovat jako v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed. To je st\u00e1le obt\u00ed\u017en\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, proto\u017ee \u00cdr\u00e1n se ani vojensky nezhroutil, ani nebyl politicky izolov\u00e1n.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span dir=\"auto\">\u010cty\u0159denn\u00ed \u201epauza\u201c a ne\u00fasp\u011bch rozhovor\u016f<\/span><\/h2>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Podle videa Trumpova administrativa 25. \u010dervence ozn\u00e1mila pozastaven\u00ed americk\u00fdch \u00fatok\u016f. Z\u00e1rove\u0148 Trump prohl\u00e1sil, \u017ee Washington a Teher\u00e1n obnov\u00ed rozhovory o ukon\u010den\u00ed v\u00e1lky.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Ale pouh\u00e9 \u010dty\u0159i dny pot\u00e9, 29. \u010dervence, USA obnovily sv\u00e9 leteck\u00e9 \u00fadery proti \u00cdr\u00e1nu. Trump ozn\u00e1mil, \u017ee \u00edr\u00e1nskou vl\u00e1du zas\u00e1hne \u201evelmi tvrd\u011b\u201c.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Norton tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee toto kr\u00e1tk\u00e9 obdob\u00ed ukazuje, \u017ee ohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00e1 pauza nebyla ani \u017eivotaschopn\u00fdm p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00edm, ani za\u010d\u00e1tkem seri\u00f3zn\u00edch m\u00edrov\u00fdch jedn\u00e1n\u00ed. Washington se sp\u00ed\u0161e z\u0159ejm\u011b sna\u017eil z\u00edskat \u010das, ani\u017e by z\u00e1sadn\u011b zm\u011bnil sv\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 a politick\u00e9 po\u017eadavky.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">\u00cdr\u00e1nsk\u00e1 strana se proto na nov\u00e9 americk\u00e9 nab\u00eddky k vyjedn\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed d\u00edv\u00e1 se zna\u010dnou ned\u016fv\u011brou. Norton poukazuje na dlouh\u00fd seznam poru\u0161en\u00fdch nebo ne\u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u00fdch dohod.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">V roce 2018, b\u011bhem sv\u00e9ho prvn\u00edho funk\u010dn\u00edho obdob\u00ed, Trump jednostrann\u011b odstoupil od mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed jadern\u00e9 dohody s \u00cdr\u00e1nem. Po jeho n\u00e1vratu do B\u00edl\u00e9ho domu byla jedn\u00e1n\u00ed obnovena, ne\u017e USA a Izrael ne\u010dekan\u011b zah\u00e1jily vojenskou ofenzivu proti \u00cdr\u00e1nu. Washington pozd\u011bji poru\u0161il i memorandum o porozum\u011bn\u00ed podepsan\u00e9 v \u010dervnu.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Z \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9ho pohledu se proto nov\u00e1 jedn\u00e1n\u00ed automaticky nejev\u00ed jako m\u00edrov\u00e1 nab\u00eddka, ale mo\u017en\u00e1 jako taktick\u00e1 pauza pro vojenskou reorganizaci.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span dir=\"auto\">T\u0159i krize nut\u00ed Washington hledat v\u00fdchodisko<\/span><\/h2>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Norton uv\u00e1d\u00ed t\u0159i kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e9 d\u016fvody, pro\u010d USA opakovan\u011b p\u0159eru\u0161uj\u00ed v\u00e1lku a hledaj\u00ed politick\u00e9 v\u00fdchodisko:<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Zaprv\u00e9, americk\u00fdm ozbrojen\u00fdm sil\u00e1m doch\u00e1zej\u00ed d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 protiletadlov\u00e9 st\u0159ely.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Za druh\u00e9, ztr\u00e1ty mezi americk\u00fdmi voj\u00e1ky rostou, zat\u00edmco Pentagon m\u016f\u017ee zatajovat skute\u010dn\u00fd rozsah ob\u011bt\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Za t\u0159et\u00ed, v\u00e1lka vyvolala glob\u00e1ln\u00ed energetickou krizi, kterou d\u00e1le zhor\u0161uje zapojen\u00ed Jemenu a naru\u0161en\u00ed kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fdch n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00edch tras.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Tyto t\u0159i faktory jsou vz\u00e1jemn\u011b propojeny. \u010c\u00edm d\u00e9le v\u00e1lka trv\u00e1, t\u00edm v\u00edce raket mus\u00ed Washington nasadit na obranu sv\u00fdch z\u00e1kladen. S ub\u00fdvaj\u00edc\u00edmi z\u00e1sobami \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fdch raket a dron\u016f jsou schopny \u010dast\u011bji pronikat protivzdu\u0161nou obranou. To n\u00e1sledn\u011b zvy\u0161uje po\u010det ob\u011bt\u00ed, zat\u00edmco \u00fatoky na energetick\u00e1 za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed a dopravn\u00ed trasy sou\u010dasn\u011b zvy\u0161uj\u00ed ekonomick\u00e9 n\u00e1klady v\u00e1lky.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span dir=\"auto\">Dod\u00e1vky Patriot\u016f se st\u00e1vaj\u00ed strategick\u00fdm probl\u00e9mem<\/span><\/h2>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Podle videa se potenci\u00e1ln\u011b kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fdm vojensk\u00fdm \u00fazk\u00fdm hrdlem t\u00fdk\u00e1 protiraketov\u00fdch syst\u00e9m\u016f Patriot. Ty jsou pot\u0159ebn\u00e9 k ochran\u011b americk\u00fdch z\u00e1kladen, spojeneck\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu a kritick\u00e9 infrastruktury p\u0159ed \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fdmi raketami a drony.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Norton cituje zpr\u00e1vy z New York Times a Wall Street Journal. Podle t\u011bchto zpr\u00e1v v Pentagonu rostou obavy, \u017ee dal\u0161\u00ed zintenzivn\u011bn\u00ed v\u00e1lky by mohlo nebezpe\u010dn\u011b vy\u010derpat ji\u017e tak ub\u00fdvaj\u00edc\u00ed z\u00e1soby raket Patriot a dal\u0161\u00edch syst\u00e9m\u016f protivzdu\u0161n\u00e9 obrany.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Ameri\u010dt\u00ed vl\u00e1dn\u00ed \u00fa\u0159edn\u00edci ozna\u010dili n\u00e1vrat k plnohodnotn\u00fdm bojov\u00fdm operac\u00edm za \u201enesm\u00edrn\u011b riskantn\u00ed podnik\u201c. Trumpova administrativa se \u00fadajn\u011b ob\u00e1v\u00e1 nejen rozs\u00e1hlej\u0161\u00ed v\u00e1lky, ale tak\u00e9 odcizen\u00ed kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu, glob\u00e1ln\u00ed ekonomick\u00e9 krize a rostouc\u00ed energetick\u00e9 a uprchlick\u00e9 krize.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Podle odhad\u016f uveden\u00fdch ve videu m\u011bly Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty na za\u010d\u00e1tku v\u00e1lky p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 2 500 protiraketov\u00fdch st\u0159el Patriot. Od za\u010d\u00e1tku nep\u0159\u00e1telsk\u00fdch akc\u00ed 28. \u00fanora jich bylo pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b nasazeno nejm\u00e9n\u011b 1 500.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Pokud jsou tato \u010d\u00edsla p\u0159esn\u00e1, Pentagon by ji\u017e spot\u0159eboval p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 60 procent sv\u00fdch p\u016fvodn\u00edch z\u00e1sob. K dispozici by zb\u00fdvalo m\u00e9n\u011b ne\u017e 40 procent.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Podle citovan\u00fdch zpr\u00e1v stoj\u00ed jedna raketa Patriot \u010dty\u0159i a\u017e p\u011bt milion\u016f dolar\u016f. Nasazen\u00ed pouh\u00fdch 1 500 st\u00edhac\u00edch raket by tedy znamenalo n\u00e1klady p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b \u0161est a\u017e 7,5 miliardy dolar\u016f \u2013 bez zapo\u010d\u00edt\u00e1n\u00ed n\u00e1klad\u016f na americk\u00e9 leteck\u00e9 \u00fadery, nasazen\u00ed st\u00edha\u010dek, logistiku, n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed operace a v\u0161echny ostatn\u00ed zbra\u0148ov\u00e9 syst\u00e9my.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Norton hovo\u0159\u00ed o v\u00e1lce, jej\u00ed\u017e celkov\u00e9 n\u00e1klady by snadno mohly dos\u00e1hnout stovek miliard dolar\u016f. Video v\u0161ak nezmi\u0148uje p\u0159esnou, nez\u00e1visle ov\u011b\u0159enou celkovou \u010d\u00e1stku.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span dir=\"auto\">Americk\u00fd obrann\u00fd pr\u016fmysl nedok\u00e1\u017ee kompenzovat spot\u0159ebu<\/span><\/h2>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Z\u00e1kladn\u00ed probl\u00e9m nespo\u010d\u00edv\u00e1 jen v tom, \u017ee se st\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00ed z\u00e1soby zmen\u0161uj\u00ed. Americk\u00fd obrann\u00fd pr\u016fmysl zjevn\u011b nedok\u00e1\u017ee vyrobit nov\u00e9 rakety dostate\u010dn\u011b rychle, aby vykompenzoval spot\u0159ebu.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Podle informac\u00ed uveden\u00fdch ve videu m\u016f\u017ee v\u00fdrobce RTX, d\u0159\u00edve Raytheon, vyrobit p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 600 modern\u00edch st\u00edhac\u00edch st\u0159el PAC-3 ro\u010dn\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">To je v kontrastu se spot\u0159ebou nejm\u00e9n\u011b 1 500 raket b\u011bhem n\u011bkolika m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">I p\u0159i pln\u00e9 v\u00fdrob\u011b by trvalo n\u011bkolik let, ne\u017e by se ji\u017e nasazen\u00e9 z\u00e1soby nahradily. To by tak\u00e9 vy\u017eadovalo, aby v\u0161echny nov\u00e9 rakety byly ur\u010deny v\u00fdhradn\u011b pro americk\u00e9 s\u00edly. Ve skute\u010dnosti v\u0161ak Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty mus\u00ed tak\u00e9 z\u00e1sobovat spojence a plnit st\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00ed exportn\u00ed smlouvy.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Nedostatek je nyn\u00ed \u00fadajn\u011b tak v\u00e1\u017en\u00fd, \u017ee si americk\u00e1 arm\u00e1da poprv\u00e9 za v\u00edce ne\u017e t\u0159i desetilet\u00ed objednala star\u0161\u00ed varianty syst\u00e9m\u016f Patriot pro vlastn\u00ed pot\u0159ebu.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">V b\u0159eznu Washington dokonce po\u017e\u00e1dal spojence NATO o dal\u0161\u00ed rakety Patriot. Podle zpr\u00e1vy zm\u00edn\u011bn\u00e9 ve videu bylo Polsko jedinou zem\u00ed, kter\u00e1 mohla poskytnout alespo\u0148 \u010d\u00e1ste\u010dnou pomoc.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">To odhaluje struktur\u00e1ln\u00ed probl\u00e9m: Americk\u00fd vojensk\u00fd pr\u016fmysl sice dok\u00e1\u017ee vyr\u00e1b\u011bt extr\u00e9mn\u011b drah\u00e9 zbra\u0148ov\u00e9 syst\u00e9my, ale nen\u00ed p\u0159ipraven na dlouhou a intenzivn\u00ed v\u00e1lku proti protivn\u00edkovi, kter\u00fd m\u016f\u017ee denn\u011b nasadit velk\u00e9 mno\u017estv\u00ed relativn\u011b levn\u00fdch raket a dron\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span dir=\"auto\">\u00cdr\u00e1n nut\u00ed USA k n\u00e1kladn\u00e9 vy\u010derp\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00ed v\u00e1lce<\/span><\/h2>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Vojensk\u00e1 logika je pro Washington nep\u0159\u00edzniv\u00e1.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">\u00cdr\u00e1n nemus\u00ed zni\u010dit ka\u017edou americkou pozici. Pravideln\u00e9 odpalov\u00e1n\u00ed raket a dron\u016f sta\u010d\u00ed k tomu, aby USA a jejich spojence donutilo pou\u017e\u00edvat jejich vz\u00e1cn\u00e9 a drah\u00e9 protiletadlov\u00e9 syst\u00e9my.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">I kdyby byla \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e1 raketa sest\u0159elena, \u010d\u00e1ste\u010dn\u011b splnila sv\u016fj \u00fa\u010del: Protistrana musela nasadit z\u00e1chytnou raketu v cen\u011b n\u011bkolika milion\u016f dolar\u016f, a t\u00edm ztratila \u010d\u00e1st sv\u00e9 omezen\u00e9 obrann\u00e9 kapacity.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">\u010c\u00edm d\u00e9le tento pom\u011br p\u0159etrv\u00e1v\u00e1, t\u00edm v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed je pravd\u011bpodobnost, \u017ee jednotliv\u00e9 \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 rakety obranu p\u0159ekonaj\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Norton p\u0159ipisuje rostouc\u00ed po\u010det zasa\u017een\u00fdch americk\u00fdch c\u00edl\u016f a americk\u00fdch ob\u011bt\u00ed \u010d\u00e1ste\u010dn\u011b rostouc\u00ed z\u00e1t\u011b\u017ei protivzdu\u0161n\u00e9 obrany. Zda v\u0161ak v\u0161echny zm\u00edn\u011bn\u00e9 z\u00e1sahy p\u0159\u00edmo souvisej\u00ed s nedostatkem raket Patriot, nelze s jistotou ov\u011b\u0159it pouze na z\u00e1klad\u011b videa.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Strategicky je popsan\u00fd mechanismus nicm\u00e9n\u011b pochopiteln\u00fd: Obr\u00e1nce, jeho\u017e z\u00e1chytn\u00e9 st\u0159ely jsou spot\u0159ebov\u00e1v\u00e1ny rychleji, ne\u017e jsou vyr\u00e1b\u011bny, nakonec ztrat\u00ed schopnost chr\u00e1nit v\u0161echny ohro\u017een\u00e9 c\u00edle sou\u010dasn\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span dir=\"auto\">St\u00e1ty Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu se ob\u00e1vaj\u00ed d\u016fsledk\u016f americk\u00e9 eskalace<\/span><\/h2>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Obzvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b zraniteln\u00e9 jsou monarchie Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu, kter\u00e9 jsou spojenkyn\u00ed Washingtonu. Pat\u0159\u00ed mezi n\u011b Sa\u00fadsk\u00e1 Ar\u00e1bie, Spojen\u00e9 arabsk\u00e9 emir\u00e1ty, Kuvajt, Bahrajn a Katar.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Mnoh\u00e9 z t\u011bchto zem\u00ed host\u00ed americk\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 z\u00e1kladny. To z nich automaticky d\u011bl\u00e1 potenci\u00e1ln\u00ed c\u00edle \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fdch odvetn\u00fdch \u00fader\u016f v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b p\u0159\u00edm\u00e9 konfrontace mezi USA a \u00cdr\u00e1nem.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Z\u00e1rove\u0148 jejich ekonomick\u00e9 a soci\u00e1ln\u00ed syst\u00e9my z\u00e1vis\u00ed na vysoce koncentrovan\u00e9 infrastruktu\u0159e. Ropn\u00e9 termin\u00e1ly, rafinerie, plynov\u00e1 pole, leti\u0161t\u011b, p\u0159\u00edstavy, energetick\u00e9 s\u00edt\u011b a odsolovac\u00ed za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed se nach\u00e1zej\u00ed na n\u011bkolika strategicky d\u016fle\u017eit\u00fdch m\u00edstech.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Norton zd\u016fraz\u0148uje zejm\u00e9na z\u00e1vislost na odsolovac\u00edch za\u0159\u00edzen\u00edch mo\u0159sk\u00e9 vody. St\u00e1ty Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu maj\u00ed jen mal\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edrodn\u00ed z\u00e1soby sladk\u00e9 vody a velkou \u010d\u00e1st pitn\u00e9 vody z\u00edsk\u00e1vaj\u00ed z odsolovac\u00edch za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed na sv\u00e9m pob\u0159e\u017e\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">\u00cdr\u00e1n zat\u00edm na tato za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed neza\u00fato\u010dil. Pouh\u00e1 mo\u017enost takov\u00e9ho \u00fatoku v\u0161ak ilustruje zranitelnost st\u00e1t\u016f Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Vl\u00e1dy regionu proto maj\u00ed siln\u00fd z\u00e1jem zabr\u00e1nit Washingtonu ve zcela nekontrolovan\u00e9 eskalaci. Podporuj\u00ed USA vojensky i politicky, ale z\u00e1rove\u0148 se mus\u00ed ob\u00e1vat, \u017ee nese nejbezprost\u0159edn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed d\u016fsledky americk\u00fdch \u00fatok\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span dir=\"auto\">Po\u010det americk\u00fdch ztr\u00e1t z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 sporn\u00fd<\/span><\/h2>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Druh\u00fdm hlavn\u00edm p\u0159isp\u00edvaj\u00edc\u00edm faktorem jsou rostouc\u00ed ztr\u00e1ty americk\u00fdch voj\u00e1k\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Norton obvi\u0148uje Pentagon z toho, \u017ee pln\u011b nezve\u0159ejnil skute\u010dn\u00fd po\u010det mrtv\u00fdch a zran\u011bn\u00fdch. Mimo jin\u00e9 cituje b\u00fdval\u00e9ho ministra obrany USA a \u0159editele CIA Leona Panettu.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Panetta ozna\u010dil informa\u010dn\u00ed politiku Pentagonu za ostudnou a hovo\u0159il o \u00famysln\u00e9m pokusu zatajit informace p\u0159ed americkou ve\u0159ejnost\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Obzvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b zar\u00e1\u017eej\u00edc\u00ed je, \u017ee Pentagon neuspo\u0159\u00e1dal pravidelnou tiskovou konferenci po dobu dvou a p\u016fl m\u011bs\u00edce. Kritici se domn\u00edvaj\u00ed, \u017ee se jedn\u00e1 o pokus zatajit skute\u010dn\u00fd rozsah v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00fdch n\u00e1klad\u016f p\u0159ed americk\u00fdmi volbami do Kongresu v listopadu.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">New York Times p\u016fvodn\u011b informoval o 18 zabit\u00fdch americk\u00fdch voj\u00e1c\u00edch. Toto \u010d\u00edslo bylo pozd\u011bji sn\u00ed\u017eeno na 14.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Vysv\u011btlen\u00ed Pentagonu \u00fadajn\u011b zn\u011blo, \u017ee po vyhl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed zem\u0159eli \u010dty\u0159i voj\u00e1ci, a proto nebyli zahrnuti do p\u016fvodn\u00edch statistik.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Norton pova\u017euje tento postup za statistickou manipulaci. Voj\u00e1ci zem\u0159eli v d\u016fsledku v\u00e1lky bez ohledu na to, zda k jejich smrti do\u0161lo p\u0159ed nebo po ofici\u00e1ln\u011b ozn\u00e1men\u00e9m datu.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Nav\u00edc byly zpo\u010d\u00e1tku z publikovan\u00fdch \u010d\u00edsel vynech\u00e1ny des\u00edtky zran\u011bn\u00fdch. Podle videa se po\u010det zran\u011bn\u00fdch ji\u017e pohybuje ve stovk\u00e1ch, ale ve skute\u010dnosti by mohl b\u00fdt v\u00fdrazn\u011b vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Video neobsahuje nez\u00e1visl\u00e9 potvrzen\u00ed vy\u0161\u0161\u00edho po\u010dtu ob\u011bt\u00ed, kter\u00fd Norton nazna\u010dil. Dokumentuje p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm spory o metody s\u010d\u00edt\u00e1n\u00ed, opo\u017ed\u011bn\u00e9 hl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed a neobvykle zdr\u017eenlivou informa\u010dn\u00ed politiku Pentagonu.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span dir=\"auto\">V\u00e1lka se \u0161\u00ed\u0159\u00ed do st\u00e1le v\u00edce zem\u00ed<\/span><\/h2>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Soub\u011b\u017en\u011b s vojensk\u00fdm vy\u010derp\u00e1n\u00edm USA se v\u00e1lka geograficky roz\u0161i\u0159uje.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Podle Nortona Trumpova administrativa vyvinula tlak na Sa\u00fadskou Ar\u00e1bii, aby obnovila \u00fatoky na Jemen. Sa\u00fadskoarabsk\u00e9 s\u00edly pot\u00e9 bombardovaly c\u00edle na severu zem\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Ansarall\u00e1h, na Z\u00e1pad\u011b obvykle ozna\u010dovan\u00fd jako hnut\u00ed H\u00fat\u00ed\u016f, reagoval \u00fatoky na sa\u00fadsk\u00e9 c\u00edle, zejm\u00e9na na energetick\u00e1 za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed a infrastrukturu pro p\u0159epravu ropy.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Sa\u00fadsk\u00e1 Ar\u00e1bie nav\u00edc jednala spole\u010dn\u011b s americkou arm\u00e1dou proti pro\u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fdm milic\u00edm v Ir\u00e1ku. D\u00edky tomu se kr\u00e1lovstv\u00ed stalo p\u0159\u00edmou stranou konfliktu v n\u011bkolika v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00fdch z\u00f3n\u00e1ch sou\u010dasn\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Video tak\u00e9 p\u0159ipisuje Spojen\u00fdm arabsk\u00fdm emir\u00e1t\u016fm rostouc\u00ed vojenskou roli. \u00dadajn\u011b vyu\u017e\u00edvaj\u00ed americk\u00e9 a izraelsk\u00e9 zpravodajsk\u00e9 slu\u017eby k \u00fatok\u016fm na \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 c\u00edle.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Zasa\u017een byl i Egypt. Pokud by K\u00e1hira vojensky zareagovala, mohl by b\u00fdt do region\u00e1ln\u00ed v\u00e1lky vta\u017een dal\u0161\u00ed d\u016fle\u017eit\u00fd st\u00e1t.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Podle Nortona tedy konflikt ji\u017e nen\u00ed izolovanou v\u00e1lkou mezi USA a \u00cdr\u00e1nem. Zahrnuje Jemen, Sa\u00fadskou Ar\u00e1bii, Ir\u00e1k, Spojen\u00e9 arabsk\u00e9 emir\u00e1ty, Kuvajt, Bahrajn a mo\u017en\u00e1 i Egypt.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span dir=\"auto\">Jemen otev\u00edr\u00e1 druhou energetickou frontu<\/span><\/h2>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Vstup Ansarall\u00e1hu do konfliktu m\u00e1 obzvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b dalekos\u00e1hl\u00fd dopad.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Hnut\u00ed ovl\u00e1d\u00e1 hust\u011b os\u00eddlen\u00fd sever Jemenu a je politicky spojencem \u00cdr\u00e1nu. Od za\u010d\u00e1tku sa\u00fadsk\u00e9 intervence v roce 2015 z\u00edskalo dlouholet\u00e9 bojov\u00e9 zku\u0161enosti a udr\u017eelo si svou mocenskou pozici i p\u0159es masivn\u00ed leteck\u00e9 \u00fadery.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Pot\u00e9, co Sa\u00fadsk\u00e1 Ar\u00e1bie obnovila \u00fatoky na Jemen, Ansarall\u00e1h podle videa ozn\u00e1mil n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed blok\u00e1du Sa\u00fadsk\u00e9 Ar\u00e1bie.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">To p\u0159ich\u00e1z\u00ed v pro Rij\u00e1d mimo\u0159\u00e1dn\u011b citliv\u00e9m okam\u017eiku.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Pot\u00e9, co \u00cdr\u00e1n uzav\u0159el nebo t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 zablokoval Hormuzsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv, se Sa\u00fadsk\u00e1 Ar\u00e1bie pokusila p\u0159esunout v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed \u010d\u00e1st sv\u00e9ho v\u00fdvozu ropy na pob\u0159e\u017e\u00ed Rud\u00e9ho mo\u0159e prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm ropovodu V\u00fdchod-Z\u00e1pad. Ropa se p\u0159epravuje z produk\u010dn\u00edch oblast\u00ed v Persk\u00e9m z\u00e1livu p\u0159es celou zemi do Yanbu, kde se nakl\u00e1d\u00e1 na tankery.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Ansarall\u00e1h nyn\u00ed hroz\u00ed, \u017ee zablokuje i tuto alternativn\u00ed trasu.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">To by mohlo Sa\u00fadskou Ar\u00e1bii vystavit tlaku na obou pob\u0159e\u017e\u00edch sou\u010dasn\u011b: na v\u00fdchod\u011b kv\u016fli situaci v Hormuzsk\u00e9m regionu a na z\u00e1pad\u011b kv\u016fli jemensk\u00fdm operac\u00edm v Rud\u00e9m mo\u0159i.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span dir=\"auto\">\u00datoky na ropnou infrastrukturu Yanbu a Sa\u00fadsk\u00e9 Ar\u00e1bie<\/span><\/h2>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Od ozn\u00e1men\u00ed blok\u00e1dy se situace zhor\u0161ila.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Podle Nortona Ansarall\u00e1h \u00fadajn\u011b za\u00fato\u010dil na za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed nezbytn\u00e1 pro p\u0159epravu sa\u00fadsk\u00e9 ropy z v\u00fdchodn\u00edho na z\u00e1padn\u00ed pob\u0159e\u017e\u00ed. Hnut\u00ed se tak\u00e9 p\u0159ihl\u00e1silo k odpov\u011bdnosti za \u00fatoky na rafinerie a za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed pat\u0159\u00edc\u00ed st\u00e1tn\u00ed ropn\u00e9 spole\u010dnosti Saudi Aramco.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Agentura Reuters s odvol\u00e1n\u00edm na satelitn\u00ed sn\u00edmky uvedla, \u017ee lodn\u00ed doprava v Rud\u00e9m mo\u0159i se v\u00fdrazn\u011b zpomalila. Zasa\u017eena byla za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed v p\u0159\u00edstavn\u00edm m\u011bst\u011b Yanbu.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Tyto \u00fatoky maj\u00ed v\u00fdznam, kter\u00fd dalece p\u0159esahuje bezprost\u0159edn\u00ed \u0161kody.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Sa\u00fadsk\u00e1 Ar\u00e1bie financuje velkou \u010d\u00e1st sv\u00e9ho st\u00e1tn\u00edho rozpo\u010dtu, soci\u00e1ln\u00edch program\u016f a projekt\u016f hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9ho rozvoje z p\u0159\u00edjm\u016f z prodeje ropy. Dlouhodob\u00fd pokles exportu by zhor\u0161il st\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00ed rozpo\u010dtov\u00e9 deficity a mohl by vyvolat dom\u00e1c\u00ed politick\u00fd tlak.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Tot\u00e9\u017e plat\u00ed pro ostatn\u00ed monarchie v Persk\u00e9m z\u00e1livu. Jejich politick\u00e1 stabilita do zna\u010dn\u00e9 m\u00edry z\u00e1vis\u00ed na skute\u010dnosti, \u017ee p\u0159\u00edjmy z ropy a plynu se pou\u017e\u00edvaj\u00ed k financov\u00e1n\u00ed dotac\u00ed, pracovn\u00edch m\u00edst a vl\u00e1dn\u00edch slu\u017eeb.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">V\u00e1lka, kter\u00e1 tyto p\u0159\u00edjmy trvale naru\u0161\u00ed, proto ohro\u017euje nejen jednotliv\u00e9 rafinerie, ale i politick\u00fd a ekonomick\u00fd model cel\u00e9ho regionu.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span dir=\"auto\">Hormuz a Bab al-Mandab se z\u00e1rove\u0148 dost\u00e1vaj\u00ed pod tlak<\/span><\/h2>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Strategick\u00fd rozm\u011br se obzvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b jasn\u011b projev\u00ed, kdy\u017e se ob\u011b centr\u00e1ln\u00ed n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed trasy posuzuj\u00ed spole\u010dn\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Hormuzsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv spojuje Persk\u00fd z\u00e1liv s Indick\u00fdm oce\u00e1nem. P\u0159epravuje se j\u00edm velk\u00e9 mno\u017estv\u00ed ropy a zkapaln\u011bn\u00e9ho zemn\u00edho plynu ze Sa\u00fadsk\u00e9 Ar\u00e1bie, Spojen\u00fdch arabsk\u00fdch emir\u00e1t\u016f, Kataru, Kuvajtu, Bahrajnu, Ir\u00e1ku a \u00cdr\u00e1nu.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Pr\u016fliv Bab al-Mandab spojuje Rud\u00e9 mo\u0159e s Adensk\u00fdm z\u00e1livem a Indick\u00fdm oce\u00e1nem. Pr\u016fliv je kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fd pro dopravu mezi Evropou, Suezsk\u00fdm pr\u016fplavem a Asi\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Pokud budou ob\u011b trasy omezeny sou\u010dasn\u011b, glob\u00e1ln\u00ed ekonomika ztrat\u00ed zna\u010dnou \u010d\u00e1st sv\u00e9 kr\u00e1tkodob\u00e9 schopnosti p\u0159epravovat energii mezi Bl\u00edzk\u00fdm v\u00fdchodem, Asi\u00ed a Evropou.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Sa\u00fadsk\u00e1 Ar\u00e1bie roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159ila ropovod V\u00fdchod-Z\u00e1pad pr\u00e1v\u011b proto, aby v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b krize v Hormuzsk\u00e9 oblasti mohla pokra\u010dovat ve v\u00fdvozu ropy p\u0159es Rud\u00e9 mo\u0159e. Pokud bude nyn\u00ed napadena i tato trasa, Rij\u00e1d ztrat\u00ed svou nejd\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00ed strategickou alternativu.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">T\u00edm se konflikt m\u011bn\u00ed z vojensk\u00e9 v\u00e1lky ve v\u00e1lku o glob\u00e1ln\u00ed energetick\u00e9 zdroje.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span dir=\"auto\">Energetick\u00e1 krize zas\u00e1hne nejprve Asii<\/span><\/h2>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Podle Nortona jsou ekonomick\u00e9 d\u016fsledky ji\u017e viditeln\u00e9.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Obzvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b t\u011b\u017ece jsou zasa\u017eeny asijsk\u00e9 zem\u011b jako Japonsko, Ji\u017en\u00ed Korea, Filip\u00edny a Thajsko. N\u011bkter\u00e9 z t\u011bchto zem\u00ed z\u00edsk\u00e1vaj\u00ed a\u017e 90 procent sv\u00e9 ropy z Bl\u00edzk\u00e9ho v\u00fdchodu.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Japonsko a Ji\u017en\u00ed Korea jsou bl\u00edzk\u00fdmi spojenci Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f a host\u00ed velk\u00e9 americk\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 kontingenty. P\u0159esto pat\u0159\u00ed mezi zem\u011b, kter\u00e9 by ekonomicky nejv\u00edce utrp\u011bly p\u0159eru\u0161en\u00edm dod\u00e1vek energie z Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Video cituje analytika z den\u00edku The Guardian, kter\u00fd tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee glob\u00e1ln\u00ed rezervn\u00ed kapacity jsou prakticky vy\u010derp\u00e1ny. T\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 neexistuj\u00ed \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 dal\u0161\u00ed z\u00e1soby ani objemy produkce, kter\u00e9 by bylo mo\u017en\u00e9 aktivovat v kr\u00e1tk\u00e9 dob\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Rostouc\u00ed ceny ropy ovliv\u0148uj\u00ed v\u00edce ne\u017e jen benz\u00edn a topnou energii. Ropa je pot\u0159ebn\u00e1 k p\u0159eprav\u011b t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 ve\u0161ker\u00e9ho zbo\u017e\u00ed. Vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed ceny paliv zvy\u0161uj\u00ed n\u00e1klady na lodn\u00ed dopravu, leteckou dopravu, zem\u011bd\u011blstv\u00ed, produkci potravin, pr\u016fmysl a logistiku.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">To znamen\u00e1, \u017ee vojensk\u00fd konflikt na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b se okam\u017eit\u011b st\u00e1v\u00e1 infla\u010dn\u00edm probl\u00e9mem pro spot\u0159ebitele na cel\u00e9m sv\u011bt\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span dir=\"auto\">Z\u00e1soby ropy zb\u00fdvaj\u00ed u\u017e jen na p\u00e1r t\u00fddn\u016f?<\/span><\/h2>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Obzvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b alarmuj\u00edc\u00ed je prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed p\u0159ipisovan\u00e9 Trumpovi ve videu, podle kter\u00e9ho by mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed z\u00e1soby ropy vydr\u017eely ji\u017e p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b \u010dty\u0159i t\u00fddny.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Toto prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed \u00fadajn\u011b poch\u00e1z\u00ed z projevu pronesen\u00e9ho v \u010dervnu, kdy se zd\u00e1lo mo\u017en\u00e9 ukon\u010den\u00ed v\u00e1lky a nov\u00e1 jedn\u00e1n\u00ed s \u00cdr\u00e1nem.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Video v\u0161ak neposkytuje p\u0159esnou definici, o kter\u00fdch rezerv\u00e1ch Trump hovo\u0159il. Zat\u00edm nen\u00ed jasn\u00e9, zda mluvil o strategick\u00fdch vl\u00e1dn\u00edch rezerv\u00e1ch, komer\u010dn\u00edch z\u00e1sob\u00e1ch dr\u017een\u00fdch konkr\u00e9tn\u00edmi zem\u011bmi nebo o glob\u00e1ln\u011b dostupn\u00fdch nouzov\u00fdch rezerv\u00e1ch.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Bez ohledu na to prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed ukazuje, jak napjat\u00e1 byla situace s dod\u00e1vkami zjevn\u011b vn\u00edm\u00e1na v americk\u00e9 vl\u00e1d\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Pokud by se boje d\u00e1le stup\u0148ovaly a sou\u010dasn\u011b by ovlivnily Hormuzskou oblast, Rud\u00e9 mo\u0159e a d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e1 ropn\u00e1 a plyn\u00e1rensk\u00e1 za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed, mohla by glob\u00e1ln\u00ed ekonomika \u010delit \u0161oku v oblasti nab\u00eddky, kter\u00fd by daleko p\u0159esahoval b\u011b\u017en\u00e9 cenov\u00e9 v\u00fdkyvy.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span dir=\"auto\">V\u00e1lka proti \u00cdr\u00e1nu tak\u00e9 oslabuje Washington v\u016f\u010di \u010c\u00edn\u011b<\/span><\/h2>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Rychle klesaj\u00edc\u00ed z\u00e1soby munice maj\u00ed je\u0161t\u011b dal\u0161\u00ed strategick\u00fd d\u016fsledek.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Washington u\u017e l\u00e9ta diskutuje o mo\u017en\u00e9 v\u00e1lce proti \u010c\u00edn\u011b. Pentagon p\u0159esouv\u00e1 voj\u00e1ky do asijsko-pacifick\u00e9ho regionu a ospravedl\u0148uje roz\u0161i\u0159ov\u00e1n\u00ed sv\u00fdch zbrojn\u00edch z\u00e1sob p\u0159\u00edpravou na konflikt s rovnocenn\u00fdm protivn\u00edkem.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Pokud ale Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty ji\u017e spot\u0159ebov\u00e1vaj\u00ed velkou \u010d\u00e1st sv\u00fdch modern\u00edch protiraketov\u00fdch st\u0159el ve v\u00e1lce proti \u00cdr\u00e1nu, vyvst\u00e1v\u00e1 ot\u00e1zka, jak hodl\u00e1 z\u00e1rove\u0148 v\u00e9st je\u0161t\u011b v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed v\u00e1lku v z\u00e1padn\u00edm Pacifiku.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Norton cituje anal\u00fdzu autora Arnauda Bertranda, respektive analytika zm\u00edn\u011bn\u00e9ho ve videu, podle n\u00ed\u017e by v\u00e1lka proti \u010c\u00edn\u011b vy\u017eadovala mnohon\u00e1sobn\u011b v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed z\u00e1soby zbran\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Probl\u00e9m nen\u00ed jen v tom, \u017ee USA vy\u010derpaly sv\u00e9 z\u00e1soby ve v\u00e1lce s \u00cdr\u00e1nem. Je\u0161t\u011b p\u0159ed za\u010d\u00e1tkem v\u00e1lky nem\u011bly ani zdaleka dostate\u010dn\u00e9 mno\u017estv\u00ed zbran\u00ed pot\u0159ebn\u00e9 pro vlekl\u00fd konflikt s \u010c\u00ednou.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">\u010c\u00edna m\u00e1 v\u00fdrazn\u011b v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed pr\u016fmyslovou v\u00fdrobn\u00ed z\u00e1kladnu ne\u017e \u00cdr\u00e1n. Zem\u011b disponuje obrovsk\u00fdmi kapacitami v ocel\u00e1\u0159stv\u00ed, elektronice, stroj\u00edrenstv\u00ed, stavb\u011b lod\u00ed a v\u00fdrob\u011b energie.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Dlouhotrvaj\u00edc\u00ed v\u00e1lka by proto nebyla pouze ot\u00e1zkou technologicky vysp\u011blej\u0161\u00edch individu\u00e1ln\u00edch zbran\u00ed, ale tak\u00e9 schopnosti nep\u0159etr\u017eit\u011b vyr\u00e1b\u011bt rakety, drony, lod\u011b, n\u00e1hradn\u00ed d\u00edly a munici ve velk\u00e9m mno\u017estv\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Pr\u00e1v\u011b v tomto kritici vid\u00ed kl\u00ed\u010dovou slabinu USA: Vojensko-pr\u016fmyslov\u00fd komplex vyr\u00e1b\u00ed extr\u00e9mn\u011b drah\u00e9 a slo\u017eit\u00e9 syst\u00e9my, ale nedok\u00e1\u017ee je dodat dostate\u010dn\u011b rychle v mno\u017estv\u00ed pot\u0159ebn\u00e9m pro vy\u010derp\u00e1vac\u00ed v\u00e1lku.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span dir=\"auto\">U\u017e vyhr\u00e1l \u00cdr\u00e1n?<\/span><\/h2>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Norton z cel\u00e9ho tohoto v\u00fdvoje vyvozuje jasn\u00fd a z\u00e1m\u011brn\u011b c\u00edlen\u00fd z\u00e1v\u011br: Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty v\u00e1lku strategicky ji\u017e prohr\u00e1ly, zat\u00edmco \u00cdr\u00e1n vyhr\u00e1l.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Toto hodnocen\u00ed je autorovou politickou interpretac\u00ed a nikoli neutr\u00e1ln\u011b potvrzen\u00fdm vojensk\u00fdm zji\u0161t\u011bn\u00edm.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Jeho argument v\u0161ak zn\u00ed takto: USA nedok\u00e1zaly odstranit \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 veden\u00ed, vynutit si zm\u011bnu re\u017eimu ani dos\u00e1hnout kolapsu \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9ho st\u00e1tu. M\u00edsto toho se v\u00e1lka vyost\u0159ila, americk\u00e9 ztr\u00e1ty se zv\u00fd\u0161ily, z\u00e1soby munice se zmen\u0161ily a glob\u00e1ln\u00ed dod\u00e1vky energie se dostaly pod tlak.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">\u00cdr\u00e1n na druhou stranu uk\u00e1zal, \u017ee dok\u00e1\u017ee pokra\u010dovat v boji i p\u0159es americk\u00e9 a izraelsk\u00e9 \u00fatoky, \u00fato\u010dit na americk\u00e9 z\u00e1kladny a d\u00edky sv\u00e9 geografick\u00e9 poloze m\u00edt zna\u010dn\u00fd vliv na kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e9 energetick\u00e9 a p\u0159epravn\u00ed trasy.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">To znamen\u00e1, \u017ee Teher\u00e1n m\u00e1 st\u00e1le v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed strategickou v\u00fdhodu.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Washington by mohl pokra\u010dovat ve v\u00e1lce a zp\u016fsobit dal\u0161\u00ed zk\u00e1zu. Ka\u017ed\u00e1 nov\u00e1 vlna \u00fatok\u016f by v\u0161ak sou\u010dasn\u011b zv\u00fd\u0161ila n\u00e1klady pro USA, jejich region\u00e1ln\u00ed spojence a glob\u00e1ln\u00ed ekonomiku.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span dir=\"auto\">Washington \u010del\u00ed nemo\u017en\u00e9mu rozhodnut\u00ed<\/span><\/h2>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Trumpova administrativa se tak ocitla ve strategick\u00e9 pasti.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Pokud bude v\u00e1lka pokra\u010dovat, hroz\u00ed dal\u0161\u00ed ztr\u00e1ty, ub\u00fdvaj\u00edc\u00ed z\u00e1soby munice, rostouc\u00ed ceny ropy a roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed konfliktu do dal\u0161\u00edch st\u00e1t\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Pokud ukon\u010d\u00ed v\u00e1lku bez kapitulace \u00cdr\u00e1nu, Trump bude muset vysv\u011btlit, pro\u010d p\u016fvodn\u00edch c\u00edl\u016f nebylo dosa\u017eeno.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Politick\u00e1 dohoda by pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b vy\u017eadovala americk\u00e9 \u00fastupky. Tyto \u00fastupky by v\u0161ak bylo obt\u00ed\u017en\u00e9 slu\u010dit s tvrzen\u00edm, \u017ee USA porazily \u00cdr\u00e1n.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Podle Nortona se tedy Trump sna\u017e\u00ed sm\u00ed\u0159it neslu\u010diteln\u00e9: Chce cestu ven z v\u00e1lky, ani\u017e by p\u0159iznal por\u00e1\u017eku. Chce jedn\u00e1n\u00ed, ani\u017e by upustil od sv\u00fdch po\u017eadavk\u016f. A chce vyhl\u00e1sit v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed, i kdy\u017e je \u00cdr\u00e1n vojensky a politicky schopen akce.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Pauza, trvaj\u00edc\u00ed na konci \u010dervence pouze \u010dty\u0159i dny, ukazuje, jak nestabiln\u00ed je tento sm\u011bnn\u00fd kurz.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span dir=\"auto\">Region\u00e1ln\u00ed v\u00e1lka hroz\u00ed, \u017ee se stane glob\u00e1ln\u00ed ekonomickou v\u00e1lkou<\/span><\/h2>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Nejnebezpe\u010dn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdvoj v\u0161ak nespo\u010d\u00edv\u00e1 jen v americk\u00fdch raketov\u00fdch z\u00e1sob\u00e1ch nebo v po\u010dtu padl\u00fdch voj\u00e1k\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Rozhoduj\u00edc\u00ed je, \u017ee v\u00e1lka se st\u00e1le v\u00edce p\u0159esouv\u00e1 do energetick\u00e9 infrastruktury a glob\u00e1ln\u00edch dopravn\u00edch tras.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">\u00cdr\u00e1n vyv\u00edj\u00ed tlak na Hormuzsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv. Ansarall\u00e1h ohro\u017euje sa\u00fadsk\u00fd export v Rud\u00e9m mo\u0159i. Sa\u00fadsk\u00e1 Ar\u00e1bie op\u011bt intervenuje v Jemenu. Americk\u00e9 z\u00e1kladny v zem\u00edch Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu se st\u00e1vaj\u00ed ter\u010dem. Rafinerie, ropovody a p\u0159\u00edstavn\u00ed za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed se ocitaj\u00ed v k\u0159\u00ed\u017eov\u00e9 palb\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">To vytv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed eskala\u010dn\u00ed spir\u00e1lu, v n\u00ed\u017e ka\u017ed\u00fd vojensk\u00fd \u00fatok m\u016f\u017ee spustit ekonomick\u00e1 protiopat\u0159en\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">\u00datok na \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e1 energetick\u00e1 za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed by mohl vyvolat odvetu proti sa\u00fadsk\u00e9, emir\u00e1tsk\u00e9, katarsk\u00e9 nebo izraelsk\u00e9 infrastruktu\u0159e. To by mohlo v\u00e9st k dal\u0161\u00edm americk\u00fdm a izraelsk\u00fdm \u00fatok\u016fm. Z\u00e1rove\u0148 by mohlo doj\u00edt k po\u0161kozen\u00ed dal\u0161\u00edch tanker\u016f, co\u017e by donutilo je\u0161t\u011b v\u00edce p\u0159epravn\u00edch spole\u010dnost\u00ed k \u00fastupu z regionu.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Co za\u010dalo jako v\u00e1lka proti \u00cdr\u00e1nu, nyn\u00ed hroz\u00ed, \u017ee se stane v\u00e1lkou proti sv\u011btov\u00fdm energetick\u00fdm z\u00e1sob\u00e1m.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span dir=\"auto\">Z\u00e1v\u011br<\/span><\/h2>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Video vykresluje obraz americk\u00e9 vl\u00e1dy, kter\u00e1 p\u0159ecenila sv\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 schopnosti a politicky se zako\u0159enila.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Strategie kr\u00e1tk\u00e9 v\u00e1lky selhala. \u00cdr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 veden\u00ed nebylo odstran\u011bno. Konflikt eskaloval. Z\u00e1soby raket Patriot se zmen\u0161uj\u00ed rychleji, ne\u017e je americk\u00fd pr\u016fmysl dok\u00e1\u017ee nahradit. Po\u010det ob\u011bt\u00ed v USA roste a Pentagon je pod tlakem kv\u016fli sv\u00e9 informa\u010dn\u00ed politice.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Z\u00e1rove\u0148 se Hormuzsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv a Rud\u00e9 mo\u0159e dost\u00e1vaj\u00ed pod tlak. Ohro\u017eeny jsou nejd\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00ed exportn\u00ed trasy Sa\u00fadsk\u00e9 Ar\u00e1bie a asijsk\u00e9 zem\u011b se ji\u017e pot\u00fdkaj\u00ed s rostouc\u00edmi cenami energi\u00ed a zvy\u0161uj\u00edc\u00ed se inflac\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Zda se d\u00e1 souhlasit s Nortonov\u00fdm z\u00e1v\u011brem, \u017ee \u00cdr\u00e1n ji\u017e v\u00e1lku vyhr\u00e1l, z\u00e1vis\u00ed na tom, jak je vojensk\u00e9 v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed definov\u00e1no. Jist\u00e9 v\u0161ak je, \u017ee Washington dosud nedos\u00e1hl sv\u00fdch kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fdch politick\u00fdch c\u00edl\u016f, zat\u00edmco n\u00e1klady na v\u00e1lku denn\u011b rostou.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty \u010del\u00ed volb\u00e1m, ve kter\u00fdch nen\u00ed snadn\u00e9 v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">\u00dastup by odhalil selh\u00e1n\u00ed p\u016fvodn\u00ed strategie. Pokra\u010dov\u00e1n\u00ed v\u00e1lky by na druhou stranu mohlo vy\u010derpat americk\u00e9 z\u00e1soby zbran\u00ed, st\u00e1t \u017eivoty dal\u0161\u00edch americk\u00fdch voj\u00e1k\u016f a uvrhnout sv\u011bt do v\u00e1\u017en\u00e9 energetick\u00e9 a hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9 krize.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">V\u00e1lka s \u00cdr\u00e1nem se nejen vymyk\u00e1 kontrole, ale tak\u00e9 odhaluje omezen\u00ed vojensk\u00e9 mocnosti, kter\u00e1 sice disponuje nejdra\u017e\u0161\u00edmi zbra\u0148ov\u00fdmi syst\u00e9my na sv\u011bt\u011b, ale zjevn\u011b j\u00ed chyb\u00ed dostatek raket, pr\u016fmyslov\u00e9 kapacity a politick\u00e9 v\u00fddr\u017ee pro v\u00e1lku, kterou sama zah\u00e1jila.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Video uv\u00e1d\u00ed jako \u00fast\u0159edn\u00ed vysv\u011btlen\u00ed t\u0159i vz\u00e1jemn\u011b se ovliv\u0148uj\u00edc\u00ed krize: zmen\u0161uj\u00edc\u00ed se americk\u00e9 raketov\u00e9 z\u00e1soby, rostouc\u00ed americk\u00e9 ztr\u00e1ty a energetickou krizi zhor\u0161enou Hormuzskou ud\u00e1lost\u00ed a Jemenem.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-1185\" src=\"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/kuryr-podpis.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"84\" height=\"24\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Podle novin\u00e1\u0159e Bena Nortona se v\u00e1lka proti \u00cdr\u00e1nu, kterou zah\u00e1jily Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty, st\u00e1le v\u00edce m\u011bn\u00ed&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":112136,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,38,1052,276,37,40,889],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/112135"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=112135"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/112135\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/112136"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=112135"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=112135"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=112135"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}