{"id":112085,"date":"2026-08-01T00:20:11","date_gmt":"2026-07-31T22:20:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=112085"},"modified":"2026-07-31T12:23:19","modified_gmt":"2026-07-31T10:23:19","slug":"iran-usa-klid-pred-bouri-kdo-drzi-karty-v-ruce","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/08\/01\/iran-usa-klid-pred-bouri-kdo-drzi-karty-v-ruce\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00cdr\u00e1n\u2013USA: Klid p\u0159ed bou\u0159\u00ed \u2013 kdo dr\u017e\u00ed karty v ruce?"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\u00cdr\u00e1n a USA z\u016fst\u00e1vaj\u00ed v patov\u00e9 situaci ohledn\u011b po\u0159ad\u00ed diplomatick\u00fdch jedn\u00e1n\u00ed. \u00cdr\u00e1n prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm p\u00e1kist\u00e1nsk\u00fdch medi\u00e1tor\u016f trv\u00e1 na vy\u0159e\u0161en\u00ed krize v Hormuzsk\u00e9m pr\u016flivu, zru\u0161en\u00ed n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed blok\u00e1dy a uvoln\u011bn\u00ed zmrazen\u00fdch finan\u010dn\u00edch prost\u0159edk\u016f p\u0159ed jedn\u00e1n\u00edm o jadern\u00e9m programu. Trumpova administrativa naopak po\u017eaduje okam\u017eit\u00e9 \u00fastupky v oblasti jadern\u00e9ho programu. Intenzivn\u00ed diplomatick\u00e9 \u00fasil\u00ed vedlo k do\u010dasn\u00e9mu zastaven\u00ed americk\u00e9ho bombardov\u00e1n\u00ed, ale \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed je st\u00e1le nedosa\u017eiteln\u00e9. P\u00e1kist\u00e1n, Katar a Om\u00e1n jednaj\u00ed jako medi\u00e1to\u0159i, ale \u00cdr\u00e1n jasn\u011b uvedl, \u017ee se k isl\u00e1m\u00e1b\u00e1dsk\u00e9mu memorandu o porozum\u011bn\u00ed vr\u00e1t\u00ed pouze za vlastn\u00edch podm\u00ednek. Finan\u010dn\u00ed spor, zejm\u00e9na ohledn\u011b 6 miliard dolar\u016f zmrazen\u00fdch v Kataru, z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 kl\u00ed\u010dovou p\u0159ek\u00e1\u017ekou.<\/span><\/p>\n

Shrnut\u00ed um\u011bl\u00e9 inteligence Cocoon<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n

P\u0159esto\u017ee dlouh\u00e1 a spletit\u00e1 cesta k mo\u017en\u00e9mu obnoven\u00ed diplomacie je zahalena v mo\u0159i skepse, otev\u00edr\u00e1 se mal\u00e9 okno nad\u011bje: V\u00e1lka USA proti \u00cdr\u00e1nu by se mohla vr\u00e1tit k jednac\u00edmu stolu. Nicm\u00e9n\u011b na p\u0159\u00edkaz \u00cdr\u00e1nu \u2013 nikoli Washingtonu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Podle p\u00e1kist\u00e1nsk\u00fdch zprost\u0159edkovatel\u016f a zasv\u011bcenc\u016f se americk\u00e1 delegace minul\u00e9 pond\u011bl\u00ed setkala s poln\u00edm mar\u0161\u00e1lem Asimem Munirem v arm\u00e1dn\u00edm velitelstv\u00ed v R\u00e1valpind\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Vysoce postaven\u00fd zdroj z \u0159ad zasv\u011bcen\u00fdch osob popisuje tento krok jako iniciativu kancel\u00e1\u0159e americk\u00e9ho viceprezidenta J. D. Vance. Nab\u00eddka Washingtonu podle zdroje spo\u010d\u00edvala v pozastaven\u00ed bombardov\u00e1n\u00ed na\u0159\u00edzen\u00e9ho Trumpem \u2013 o kter\u00e9m tvrdil, \u017ee vedlo k \u201ebr\u00e1n\u00e1m pekel\u201c \u2013 a v obnoven\u00ed jedn\u00e1n\u00ed, ale s jadernou ot\u00e1zkou jako prvn\u00edm bodem programu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ihned po n\u00e1v\u0161t\u011bv\u011b uzav\u0159elo vyjedn\u00e1vac\u00ed trio \u2013 Asim Munir, ministr zahrani\u010d\u00ed Ishaq Dar a ministr vnitra Mohsin Naqvi \u2013 diplomatick\u00fd kruh s Teher\u00e1nem.<\/span><\/p>\n

Stalo se tak bezprost\u0159edn\u011b po Naqviho t\u0159et\u00ed po sob\u011b jdouc\u00ed n\u00e1v\u0161t\u011bv\u011b Teher\u00e1nu b\u011bhem n\u011bkolika t\u00fddn\u016f. Doru\u010dil osobn\u00ed vzkaz od Asima Munira ajatoll\u00e1hovi Mojt\u00e1bovi Chamene\u00edmu a tak\u00e9 samostatn\u00fd vzkaz od premi\u00e9ra \u0160ehb\u00e1ze \u0160ar\u00edfa.<\/span><\/p>\n

Naqvi se tak\u00e9 setkal s ministrem zahrani\u010d\u00ed Abb\u00e1sem Aragh\u010dim a ministrem vnitra Eskandarem Momenim. Momeni naopak Munirovi p\u0159edal d\u016fv\u011brn\u00fd vzkaz od \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9ho veden\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

V p\u0159ekladu to znamen\u00e1, \u017ee \u00cdr\u00e1n a P\u00e1kist\u00e1n jsou v neust\u00e1l\u00e9 komunikaci na nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed vl\u00e1dn\u00ed \u00farovni.<\/span><\/p>\n

Kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e9 je to, co n\u00e1sleduje. A\u010dkoli neexistuje \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 ofici\u00e1ln\u00ed potvrzen\u00ed ze strany Teher\u00e1nu, Araghchi opakovan\u011b ve\u0159ejn\u011b zd\u016fraz\u0148uje, \u017ee diplomatick\u00e1 okna z\u016fst\u00e1vaj\u00ed otev\u0159en\u00e1 \u2013 pokud existuje vz\u00e1jemn\u00fd respekt. Kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e9 je, \u017ee p\u00e1kist\u00e1n\u0161t\u00ed medi\u00e1to\u0159i trvaj\u00ed na tom, \u017ee \u00cdr\u00e1n je p\u0159ipraven vr\u00e1tit se k Isl\u00e1m\u00e1b\u00e1dsk\u00e9mu memorandu o porozum\u011bn\u00ed \u2013 ale nikdy pod hrozbami typick\u00fdmi pro Trumpovu administrativu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Teher\u00e1nsk\u00fd opera\u010dn\u00ed pl\u00e1n je jasn\u00fd: Nejprve jedn\u00e1n\u00ed o Hormuzsk\u00e9m pr\u016flivu. Pot\u00e9 mus\u00ed b\u00fdt zru\u0161ena americk\u00e1 blok\u00e1da. N\u00e1sledn\u011b by m\u011bly b\u00fdt uvoln\u011bny zmrazen\u00e9 finan\u010dn\u00ed prost\u0159edky a sankce skute\u010dn\u011b zm\u00edrn\u011bny. Teprve pot\u00e9 by se diskutovalo o jadern\u00e9 ot\u00e1zce.<\/span><\/p>\n

Trumpova administrativa chce prav\u00fd opak. Nejprve \u00fastupky v jadern\u00e9m programu. Pak americkou verzi \u201esvobodn\u00e9ho\u201c Hormuzsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu. A finan\u010dn\u00ed \u00fastupky a\u017e pot\u00e9, co \u00cdr\u00e1n \u201espln\u00ed\u201c americk\u00e9 podm\u00ednky.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pr\u00e1v\u011b v tom spo\u010d\u00edv\u00e1 j\u00e1dro konfliktu. Ot\u00e1zkou u\u017e nen\u00ed, zda se jedn\u00e1n\u00ed obnov\u00ed, ale sp\u00ed\u0161e to, kdo stanov\u00ed agendu, ur\u010d\u00ed po\u0159ad\u00ed ud\u00e1lost\u00ed a t\u00edm ovl\u00e1d\u00e1 dalekos\u00e1hl\u00e9 politick\u00e9 d\u016fsledky jedn\u00e1n\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Jedna v\u011bc se v\u0161ak zd\u00e1 jist\u00e1: Trumpovy hlasit\u00e9 hrozby prosadit model \u201enejprve jadern\u00fd program\u201c jsou mrtv\u00e9 je\u0161t\u011b d\u0159\u00edve, ne\u017e mohly za\u010d\u00edt.<\/span><\/p>\n

Boj o vyjedn\u00e1vac\u00ed s\u00edlu<\/span><\/h3>\n

Washington pozastavil bombardov\u00e1n\u00ed \u00cdr\u00e1nu \u2013 v\u010detn\u011b civiln\u00ed infrastruktury \u2013 po 13 po sob\u011b jdouc\u00edch noc\u00edch. Pauza vstoupila v platnost v p\u00e1tek 24. \u010dervence.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tato pauza v \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b nebyla jednostrann\u00fdm aktem zdr\u017eenlivosti. Byla v\u00fdsledkem neust\u00e1l\u00e9ho diplomatick\u00e9ho \u00fasil\u00ed medi\u00e1tor\u016f P\u00e1kist\u00e1nu a Kataru. Isl\u00e1m\u00e1b\u00e1d a Dauh\u00e1 opakovan\u011b varovaly Washington, \u017ee pokra\u010dov\u00e1n\u00ed bombardov\u00e1n\u00ed zcela zni\u010d\u00ed posledn\u00ed zb\u00fdvaj\u00edc\u00ed diplomatick\u00fd kan\u00e1l a vyvol\u00e1 st\u00e1le ni\u010div\u011bj\u0161\u00ed \u00edr\u00e1nskou reakci.<\/span><\/p>\n

Proto se moment\u00e1ln\u011b nach\u00e1z\u00edme pouze v pauze vyjedn\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed \u2013 daleko od skute\u010dn\u00e9 dohody.<\/span><\/p>\n

V j\u00e1dru se jedn\u00e1 o sout\u011b\u017e o vyjedn\u00e1vac\u00ed s\u00edlu. Trumpova administrativa chce, aby se \u00cdr\u00e1n vzdal sv\u00e9ho nejd\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00edho strategick\u00e9ho aktiva, ne\u017e Washington nab\u00eddne jak\u00e9koli hmatateln\u00e9 \u00fastupky.<\/span><\/p>\n

Teher\u00e1n na druhou stranu po\u017eaduje m\u011b\u0159iteln\u00e9 americk\u00e9 kroky \u2013 zm\u00edrn\u011bn\u00ed sankc\u00ed a uvoln\u011bn\u00ed zmrazen\u00fdch finan\u010dn\u00edch prost\u0159edk\u016f \u2013 je\u0161t\u011b p\u0159edt\u00edm, ne\u017e se o jadern\u00e9m programu v\u016fbec bude diskutovat.<\/span><\/p>\n

Kdokoli ovl\u00e1d\u00e1 sled ud\u00e1lost\u00ed, ovl\u00e1d\u00e1 i jedn\u00e1n\u00ed. A t\u00edm i cel\u00fd geopolitick\u00fd narativ kolem t\u00e9to v\u00e1lky.<\/span><\/p>\n

Hormuzsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 prakticky uzav\u0159en pro pravidelnou komer\u010dn\u00ed lodn\u00ed dopravu. Uv\u00edzly stovky lod\u00ed a tis\u00edce n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00edk\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n

Teher\u00e1nsk\u00fd postoj byl od za\u010d\u00e1tku jasn\u00fd: vyjednan\u00fd mechanismus, vymahateln\u00e9 z\u00e1ruky a odpov\u00eddaj\u00edc\u00ed pokrok v ot\u00e1zk\u00e1ch blok\u00e1dy a financ\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Americk\u00e9 centr\u00e1ln\u00ed velitelstv\u00ed (CENTCOM) soub\u011b\u017en\u011b prosazuje n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed blok\u00e1du \u00cdr\u00e1nu odkl\u00e1n\u011bn\u00edm nebo zastavov\u00e1n\u00edm tanker\u016f, kter\u00e9 nedodr\u017euj\u00ed americk\u00e9 sm\u011brnice.<\/span><\/p>\n

Teher\u00e1n v podstat\u011b pouze po\u017eaduje dodr\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed Memoranda o porozum\u011bn\u00ed podepsan\u00e9ho ob\u011bma stranami. Po\u017eadavek, aby Washington zru\u0161il n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed blok\u00e1du, tedy nen\u00ed nov\u00fdm \u00fastupkem, ale sp\u00ed\u0161e pln\u011bn\u00edm st\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00edho z\u00e1vazku USA.<\/span><\/p>\n

Finan\u010dn\u00ed ot\u00e1zka by se mohla uk\u00e1zat jako je\u0161t\u011b slo\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e Hormuzsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pozornost se soust\u0159ed\u00ed na p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 6 miliard dolar\u016f z \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fdch finan\u010dn\u00edch prost\u0159edk\u016f, kter\u00e9 jsou zmrazeny v Kataru.<\/span><\/p>\n

Trumpova administrativa ji\u017e d\u0159\u00edve nazna\u010dovala, \u017ee by tyto prost\u0159edky mohly b\u00fdt uvoln\u011bny v r\u00e1mci dohody. Sou\u010dasn\u00fd postoj USA v\u0161ak up\u0159ednost\u0148uje p\u0159\u00edsn\u011b kontrolovan\u00e9 sv\u011b\u0159eneck\u00e9 ujedn\u00e1n\u00ed, kter\u00e9 by v\u00fdrazn\u011b omezilo Teher\u00e1nu pou\u017e\u00edv\u00e1n\u00ed jeho vlastn\u00edch pen\u011bz. Nen\u00ed divu, \u017ee \u00cdr\u00e1n to odm\u00edt\u00e1 akceptovat.<\/span><\/p>\n

V nejlep\u0161\u00edm p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b by se ot\u00e1zka Hormuzsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu mohla vy\u0159e\u0161it komplexn\u00edmi, vyjednan\u00fdmi recipro\u010dn\u00edmi dohodami o lodn\u00ed doprav\u011b. Spor o zmrazen\u00e9 finan\u010dn\u00ed prost\u0159edky v\u0161ak bude pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b je\u0161t\u011b slo\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, proto\u017ee se p\u0159\u00edmo dot\u00fdk\u00e1 ot\u00e1zek suverenity, sankc\u00ed a politick\u00e9ho pon\u00ed\u017een\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Takov\u00e1 je sou\u010dasn\u00e1 situace: Prioritou Teher\u00e1nu je Hormuzsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv, ukon\u010den\u00ed n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed blok\u00e1dy, uvoln\u011bn\u00ed finan\u010dn\u00edch prost\u0159edk\u016f a zm\u00edrn\u011bn\u00ed sankc\u00ed \u2013 teprve pot\u00e9 se za\u010dnou zab\u00fdvat jadernou ot\u00e1zkou. Om\u00e1n vynakl\u00e1d\u00e1 velkou \u010d\u00e1st technick\u00fdch prac\u00ed na znovuotev\u0159en\u00ed Hormuzsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Isl\u00e1m\u00e1b\u00e1d, Dauh\u00e1 a \u0160v\u00fdcarsko jsou diskutov\u00e1ny jako mo\u017en\u00e1 m\u00edsta pro setk\u00e1n\u00ed k p\u0159ezkoum\u00e1n\u00ed memoranda o porozum\u011bn\u00ed. Teher\u00e1n up\u0159ednost\u0148uje Isl\u00e1m\u00e1b\u00e1d. Ameri\u010dan\u00e9 preferuj\u00ed \u0160v\u00fdcarsko. Dauh\u00e1 se sna\u017e\u00ed prezentovat jako kompromisn\u00ed \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nic z toho neznamen\u00e1, \u017ee Teher\u00e1n americkou nab\u00eddku p\u0159ijal \u2013 naopak: \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 veden\u00ed jasn\u011b odm\u00edtlo podm\u00ednky Washingtonu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Teher\u00e1n p\u0159ijal pouze princip n\u00e1vratu k jedn\u00e1n\u00edm v r\u00e1mci isl\u00e1m\u00e1b\u00e1dsk\u00e9ho memoranda o porozum\u011bn\u00ed \u2013 ale v po\u0159ad\u00ed navr\u017een\u00e9m \u00cdr\u00e1nem.<\/span><\/p>\n

Toto by mohlo b\u00fdt klid p\u0159ed bou\u0159\u00ed. Vojensk\u00e9 st\u0159ety jsou v sou\u010dasn\u00e9 dob\u011b v pozastaven\u00e9m stavu vyjedn\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed \u2013 zat\u00edmco skute\u010dn\u00fd, ho\u0159k\u00fd boj o moc se m\u016f\u017ee p\u0159esouvat z boji\u0161t\u011b do oblasti vyjedn\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Kdo dr\u017e\u00ed lep\u0161\u00ed karty?<\/span><\/p>\n

V sou\u010dasn\u00e9 dob\u011b se zd\u00e1, \u017ee \u00cdr\u00e1n m\u00e1, co se t\u00fd\u010de po\u0159ad\u00ed priorit, siln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed pozici.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ale nakonec z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 v\u0161e otev\u0159en\u00e9.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pepe Escobar<\/a><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u00cdr\u00e1n a USA z\u016fst\u00e1vaj\u00ed v patov\u00e9 situaci ohledn\u011b po\u0159ad\u00ed diplomatick\u00fdch jedn\u00e1n\u00ed. \u00cdr\u00e1n prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm p\u00e1kist\u00e1nsk\u00fdch medi\u00e1tor\u016f…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":101277,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[38,1503,37,40],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/112085"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=112085"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/112085\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/101277"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=112085"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=112085"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=112085"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}