{"id":111730,"date":"2026-07-28T00:13:01","date_gmt":"2026-07-27T22:13:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=111730"},"modified":"2026-07-27T10:28:59","modified_gmt":"2026-07-27T08:28:59","slug":"valka-mezi-iranem-a-usa-by-mohla-urychlit-globalni-recesi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/07\/28\/valka-mezi-iranem-a-usa-by-mohla-urychlit-globalni-recesi\/","title":{"rendered":"V\u00e1lka mezi \u00cdr\u00e1nem a USA by mohla urychlit glob\u00e1ln\u00ed recesi"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"fb-root\"><\/div>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Spr\u00e1vce aktiv a finan\u010dn\u00ed analytik z Wall Street Ed Dowd ze spole\u010dnosti PhinanceTechnologies.com na konci kv\u011btna varoval, \u017ee \u201ev nejhor\u0161\u00edm p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b bychom se v roce 2026 mohli do\u010dkat ceny ropy 250 dolar\u016f za barel a m\u00edry inflace 11 %.\u201c K tomu v\u0161ak dosud nedo\u0161lo. Dowd vysv\u011btluje: \u201eKdy\u017e jsme mluvili naposledy, m\u011bli jsme dva sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e. Jeden byl, \u017ee konflikt bude vy\u0159e\u0161en n\u011bkdy mezi dubnem a kv\u011btnem. Cena ropy by dos\u00e1hla vrcholu kolem 125 dolar\u016f (za barel) a inflace by vrcholila v kv\u011btnu a pot\u00e9 by klesla. P\u0159esn\u011b to se stalo, ale ned\u00e1vno bylo MOU (Memorandum o porozum\u011bn\u00ed s \u00cdr\u00e1nem) ukon\u010deno a cena ropy op\u011bt roste. Po MOU cena ropy klesla na hodnoty mezi 70 a 60 dolary. Nyn\u00ed je na 80 dolarech a n\u011bkolika centech. Tak\u017ee pokud se to rychle nevy\u0159e\u0161\u00ed, vstupuje do hry druh\u00fd sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159. &#8230; Pokud bude konflikt pokra\u010dovat a eskalovat \u2013 a chcete-li sledovat jeho v\u00fdvoj \u2013 pokud technicky v\u00fdrazn\u011b proraz\u00edme na 100 a\u017e 125 dolar\u016f, znovu otestujeme a udr\u017e\u00edme si tuto podporu, pak je dal\u0161\u00edm c\u00edlem 200 a\u017e 250 dolar\u016f za barel. Mluv\u00edme jen o m\u00e9 teorii, \u017ee sm\u011b\u0159ujeme ke glob\u00e1ln\u00ed recesi, kter\u00e1 bude v d\u016fsledku toho zp\u016fsobena o to rychleji. Bude\u2026\u201c bude prudk\u00fd n\u00e1r\u016fst inflace a masivn\u00ed pokles popt\u00e1vky.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">V\u00e1lka mezi \u00cdr\u00e1nem a USA nen\u00ed jedin\u00fdm protiv\u011btrem, kter\u00fd Dowd vid\u00ed. Podle Dowda se investice do um\u011bl\u00e9 inteligence (AI) nach\u00e1zej\u00ed v bublin\u011b a tento trend brzy skon\u010d\u00ed. Dowd \u0159\u00edk\u00e1: \u201eAkciov\u00fd trh je z 45 % tvo\u0159en akciemi z oblasti um\u011bl\u00e9 inteligence a s n\u00ed souvisej\u00edc\u00edmi. Pokud akciov\u00fd trh vyc\u00edt\u00ed, \u017ee ve\u010d\u00edrek by mohl ust\u00e1vat nebo skon\u010dil, ovlivn\u00ed to akciov\u00fd trh. Je to zp\u011btnovazebn\u00ed smy\u010dka, kter\u00e1 podle m\u011b teprve za\u010d\u00edn\u00e1. \u0158\u00edkejme tomu \u201al\u00e9to nespokojenosti s um\u011blou inteligenc\u00ed\u2018. &#8230; Konec je bl\u00ed\u017e, ne\u017e si v\u011bt\u0161ina lid\u00ed mysl\u00ed. Ve\u010d\u00edrek trv\u00e1 u\u017e docela dlouho. V dubnu a kv\u011btnu do\u0161lo k obrovsk\u00e9mu n\u00e1r\u016fstu akci\u00ed polovodi\u010dov\u00fdch spole\u010dnost\u00ed. Indexy tvo\u0159\u00ed 17 % a\u017e 19 % indexu S&amp;P 500, indexu polovodi\u010d\u016f. To samo o sob\u011b je varovn\u00fdm sign\u00e1lem. Jedn\u00e1 se o notoricky cyklick\u00e9 odv\u011btv\u00ed s boomem a krachem&#8230; V tomto&#8230; expanzi um\u011bl\u00e9 inteligence je inflace. V\u0161echny progn\u00f3zy n\u00e1vratnosti kapit\u00e1lu jdou \u0161patn\u011b, proto\u017ee za standardn\u00ed pam\u011b\u0165ov\u00e9 \u010dipy se v sou\u010dasn\u00e9 dob\u011b plat\u00ed p\u0159emr\u0161t\u011bn\u00e9 ceny. Krom\u011b toho rostou n\u00e1klady na elekt\u0159inu a je t\u0159eba stav\u011bt elektr\u00e1rny. Cel\u00fd v\u00fdpo\u010det jde kolem infrastruktury um\u011bl\u00e9 inteligence v tomto komplexu um\u011bl\u00e9 inteligence poh\u00e1n\u011bn\u00e9m \u00fav\u011bry.\u201c nen\u00ed ovlivn\u011bn. Nakonec se cel\u00e1 struktura zhrout\u00ed. &#8230; Mysl\u00edm, \u017ee ve\u010d\u00edrek je bl\u00ed\u017e ke konci ne\u017e ke za\u010d\u00e1tku a opona se rychle bl\u00ed\u017e\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Pokud bublina um\u011bl\u00e9 inteligence praskne, Dowd o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1 \u201eprudk\u00fd krach akciov\u00e9ho trhu\u201c. Z tohoto d\u016fvodu Dowd rad\u00ed investor\u016fm, aby zv\u00fd\u0161ili sv\u00e9 hotovostn\u00ed rezervy \u2013 stejn\u011b jako to d\u011bl\u00e1 slavn\u00fd investor Warren Buffett, kter\u00fd ve sv\u00e9m fondu dr\u017e\u00ed rekordn\u00ed mno\u017estv\u00ed hotovosti. Dowd \u0159\u00edk\u00e1: \u201eHotovost je such\u00fd prach.\u201c A pro ty, kte\u0159\u00ed v\u011b\u0159\u00ed, \u017ee americk\u00fd dolar se zhrout\u00ed, Dowd zast\u00e1v\u00e1 p\u0159esn\u011b opa\u010dn\u00fd n\u00e1zor a \u0159\u00edk\u00e1: \u201eDolar vypad\u00e1 docela optimisticky.\u201c<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Dowd st\u00e1le pova\u017euje zlato za kl\u00ed\u010dovou investici a jeho cenov\u00fd c\u00edl z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 v p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edch n\u011bkolika letech nezm\u011bn\u011bn na 10 000 dolarech za unci.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">34minutov\u00fd rozhovor obsahuje mnohem v\u00edce.<\/span><\/p>\n<div class='videoWrapper'>\r\n\t            <iframe src='https:\/\/rumble.com\/embed\/pj.v7awh0k\/' frameborder='0' allowfullscreen><\/iframe>\r\n\t        <\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong><em><span dir=\"auto\">Od Grega Huntera<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Spr\u00e1vce aktiv a finan\u010dn\u00ed analytik z Wall Street Ed Dowd ze spole\u010dnosti PhinanceTechnologies.com na konci&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":111731,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,38,37,40],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/111730"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=111730"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/111730\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/111731"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=111730"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=111730"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=111730"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}