{"id":111644,"date":"2026-07-26T03:46:37","date_gmt":"2026-07-26T01:46:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=111644"},"modified":"2026-07-26T03:46:37","modified_gmt":"2026-07-26T01:46:37","slug":"zbynek-fiala-k-jadru-veci","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/07\/26\/zbynek-fiala-k-jadru-veci\/","title":{"rendered":"Zbyn\u011bk Fiala: K j\u00e1dru v\u011bci"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

Amerika se v jadern\u00e9 energetice vyzn\u00e1. Jen u\u017e ji nedok\u00e1\u017ee stav\u011bt, p\u00ed\u0161e Larry Johnson na Substacku a porovn\u00e1v\u00e1 to s p\u0159\u00edstupem Ruska a \u010c\u00edny.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Mezi \u00cdr\u00e1nem a Izraelem zat\u00edm nic jadern\u00e9ho nel\u00e9t\u00e1, ale uprost\u0159ed v\u00e1lkou ohro\u017een\u00e9ho regionu se \u0161t\u011bpn\u00e9 t\u00e9ma atomu p\u0159ecjen vyno\u0159ilo. Zem\u011b, ze kter\u00fdch startuj\u00ed proti \u00cdr\u00e1nu americk\u00e1 bombarduj\u00edc\u00ed letadla, rakety a drony, jsou zase c\u00edlem \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 odvety. N\u011bkdej\u0161\u00ed strategi\u010dt\u00ed p\u0159\u00e1tel\u00e9 USA, kte\u0159\u00ed tak p\u0159ijdou za dobrotu na \u017eebrotu, u\u017e za\u010dali p\u0159em\u00edtat, jak set\u0159\u00e1st obt\u00ed\u017en\u00e9ho kamar\u00e1da. Americk\u00fd prezident Donald Trump proto zkusil p\u0159idat trochu cukru do ho\u0159k\u00e9ho p\u0159\u00edb\u011bhu a souhlasil s dohodou o jadern\u00e9 spolupr\u00e1ci se Sa\u00fadskou Ar\u00e1bi\u00ed, tedy spolupr\u00e1ci p\u0159i v\u00fdstavb\u011b jadern\u00fdch elektr\u00e1ren.<\/p>\n

Na prvn\u00ed pohled je pro Sa\u00fady velkorys\u00e1, proto\u017ee m\u011bli m\u00edt dokonce mo\u017enost sami na sv\u00e9m \u00fazem\u00ed obohacovat uran pro palivo, co\u017e jin\u00e9mu sv\u00e9mu spojenci, Ji\u017en\u00ed Koreji, trvale odp\u00edraj\u00ed. Jen v\u0161ak byla dohoda podeps\u00e1na, Trump p\u0159i\u0161el se sv\u00fdm obl\u00edben\u00fdm kouskem a sd\u011blil na soci\u00e1ln\u00ed s\u00edti, \u017ee vlastn\u011b a\u017e tak moc neplat\u00ed. Klade si za dal\u0161\u00ed podm\u00ednku n\u011bco, o \u010dem se nemluvilo, a sice pln\u00e9 uzn\u00e1n\u00ed Izraele Sa\u00fadskou Ar\u00e1bi\u00ed \u010dili p\u0159ipojen\u00ed kr\u00e1lovstv\u00ed k\u00a0zem\u00edm, kter\u00e9 podepsaly \u201eAbrahamovsk\u00e9 dohody\u201c.<\/p>\n

To posledn\u00ed dobou ud\u011blaly jen Spojen\u00e9 arabsk\u00e9 emir\u00e1ty a Bahrajn roku 2020. B\u011bhem n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00edch \u0161esti let u\u017e se ne p\u0159ipojil nikdo dal\u0161\u00ed. Sa\u00fadsk\u00e1 Ar\u00e1bie podobn\u011b jako dal\u0161\u00ed arabsk\u00e9 st\u00e1ty trv\u00e1 na sou\u010dasn\u00e9m uzn\u00e1n\u00ed samostatn\u00e9 Palestiny (princip dvou st\u00e1t\u016f). Na dodate\u010dnou Trumpovu podm\u00ednku kr\u00e1lovstv\u00ed zareagovalo chladn\u011b, \u017ee se bude dr\u017eet dohody. V\u00fdk\u0159iky na soci\u00e1ln\u00edch s\u00edt\u00edch je nezaj\u00edmaj\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Jen\u017ee t\u00e9ma m\u00e1 trochu \u0161ir\u0161\u00ed r\u00e1mec, ne\u017e \u017ee z\u00a0toho nakonec nebude nic. Zaujalo m\u011b, i kdy\u017e nejsem p\u0159\u00edtelem j\u00e1dra, m\u00e1m za to, \u017ee v\u00fdstavba nov\u00fdch jadern\u00fdch kapacit m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt z\u00e1va\u017enou p\u0159ek\u00e1\u017ekou\u00a0energetick\u00e9 transformace zem\u011b. T\u00e9 na\u0161\u00ed, jinde to m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt jin\u00e9. A tam vstupuje do hry, \u017ee je rozd\u00edl mezi t\u00edm, kdo nab\u00edz\u00ed technologico\u00e9 z\u00e1zraky, a t\u00edm, kdo um\u00ed n\u011bco u\u017eite\u010dn\u00e9ho skute\u010dn\u011b postavit.<\/p>\n

Zasv\u011bcen\u011b to rozeb\u00edr\u00e1 Larry Johnson na platform\u011b Substack. Za mnohem d\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00ed d\u016fvod, kter\u00fd by m\u011bl Sa\u00fady p\u0159im\u011bt k zamy\u0161len\u00ed, ne\u017e vsad\u00ed svou jadernou budoucnost na USA, pova\u017euje fakt, \u017ee zku\u0161enosti USA s v\u00fdstavbou jadern\u00fdch elektr\u00e1ren jsou katastrof\u00e1ln\u00ed:<\/p>\n

https:\/\/sonar21.com\/america-knows-nukes-it-just-cant-build-them-anymore-tell-that-to-the-saudis\/<\/a><\/p>\n

Amerika rozum\u00ed j\u00e1dru, ale neum\u00ed je stav\u011bt<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Sta\u010d\u00ed p\u0159ipomenout osudy jadern\u00e9 elektr\u00e1rny Vogtle v\u00a0Georgii, kter\u00e1 byla prvn\u00edm dokon\u010den\u00fdm projektem americk\u00e9ho jadern\u00e9ho reaktoru po v\u00edce ne\u017e t\u0159iceti letech. Za stejn\u00e9 obdob\u00ed jich \u010c\u00edna postavila \u0161edes\u00e1t. Dva nov\u00e9 bloky st\u00e1ly neuv\u011b\u0159iteln\u00fdch 30 miliard dolar\u016f, m\u011bly sedmilet\u00e9 zpo\u017ed\u011bn\u00ed a t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 p\u0159ivedly stavitele k bankrotu. Z technick\u00e9ho hlediska jsou to in\u017een\u00fdrsk\u00e9 triumfy. Ale tak\u00e9 n\u00e1hrobek.<\/em><\/p>\n

To, co m\u011blo b\u00fdt znovuzrozen\u00edm, demonstrace bezpe\u010dn\u011bj\u0161\u00edho a jednodu\u0161\u0161\u00edho reaktoru III+ generace (Westinghouse AP1000), se stalo v\u0159edem na z\u00e1dech. Dodavatel\u00e9 selhali. Pl\u00e1ny dorazily ne\u00fapln\u00e9. Kapacita pro t\u011b\u017ek\u00e9 kov\u00e1n\u00ed pot\u0159ebn\u00e1 k tvarov\u00e1n\u00ed reaktorov\u00fdch n\u00e1dob se ji\u017e p\u0159ed des\u00edtkami let p\u0159esunula do zahrani\u010d\u00ed. Zku\u0161en\u00ed sv\u00e1\u0159e\u010di a potrub\u00e1\u0159i ode\u0161li do d\u016fchodu a nikdo nevychoval jejich n\u00e1stupce. Ka\u017ed\u00fd probl\u00e9m zp\u016fsobil zpo\u017ed\u011bn\u00ed; ka\u017ed\u00e9 zpo\u017ed\u011bn\u00ed nafouklo rozpo\u010det.<\/em><\/p>\n

Ne\u017e se kone\u010dn\u011b vyprodukoval prvn\u00ed watt, cena se zdvojn\u00e1sobila, spole\u010dnost Westinghouse vyhl\u00e1sila bankrot a ka\u017ed\u00fd mana\u017eer americk\u00e9 energetick\u00e9 spole\u010dnosti, kter\u00fd to sledoval, ti\u0161e vy\u0161krtl slovo \u201ejadern\u00fd\u201c ze sv\u00e9ho slovn\u00edku. USA dok\u00e1\u017eou navrhnout z\u00e1zrak, ale nedok\u00e1\u017eou postavit dv\u011b stejn\u00e9 v\u011bci, ani\u017e by ka\u017edou z nich pova\u017eovaly za v\u011bdeck\u00fd projekt na m\u00edru.<\/em><\/p>\n

Rusk\u00fd reaktorov\u00fd byznys<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Zat\u00edmco Amerika se h\u00e1dala sama se sebou, Moskva vybudovala n\u011bco jednodu\u0161\u0161\u00edho: stroj na prodeje.<\/em><\/p>\n

Rosatom, rusk\u00fd st\u00e1tn\u00ed jadern\u00fd gigant, neprod\u00e1v\u00e1 pouze reaktory. Prod\u00e1v\u00e1\u00a0vztah<\/strong>. Pot\u0159ebujete elektr\u00e1rnu? Rosatom ji navrhne, financuje, postav\u00ed, z\u00e1sob\u00ed palivem, vy\u0161kol\u00ed va\u0161e oper\u00e1tory a odveze odpad. Cel\u00fd bal\u00ed\u010dek je zabalen do n\u00edzko\u00faro\u010den\u00fdch \u00fav\u011br\u016f od rusk\u00fdch st\u00e1tn\u00edch bank a geopolitick\u00e9ho mrknut\u00ed: budeme va\u0161\u00edm energetick\u00fdm partnerem po \u0161edes\u00e1t let. Sta\u010d\u00ed se tady podepsat.<\/em><\/p>\n

Samotn\u00fd produkt \u2013 VVER-1200 \u2013 nen\u00ed revolu\u010dn\u00ed. Jedn\u00e1 se o robustn\u00ed, evolu\u010dn\u00ed tlakovodn\u00ed reaktor, kter\u00fd se Rosatom nau\u010dil efektivn\u011b stav\u011bt doma a replikovat v zahrani\u010d\u00ed. To, co jej \u010din\u00ed neodolateln\u00fdm pro kupce od Turecka p\u0159es Egypt a\u017e po Banglad\u00e9\u0161, je\u00a0jistota<\/strong>, kterou Moskva nab\u00edz\u00ed v oboru, kde je jistota vz\u00e1cnost\u00ed. \u017d\u00e1dn\u00ed problemati\u010dt\u00ed soukrom\u00ed akcion\u00e1\u0159i. \u017d\u00e1dn\u00fd labyrint ve stylu N\u00e1rodn\u00ed jadern\u00e9 regula\u010dn\u00ed komise NRC. \u017d\u00e1dn\u00e1 spr\u00e1vn\u00ed rada energetick\u00e9 spole\u010dnosti, kter\u00e1 by se orosila nad \u010dtvrtletn\u00ed v\u00fdsledovkou, zat\u00edmco beton tuhne.<\/em><\/p>\n

Rosatom ovl\u00e1d\u00e1\u00a070 procent glob\u00e1ln\u00edho trhu reaktor\u016f<\/strong>. A proto\u017ee Rusko tak\u00e9 obohacuje t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 polovinu sv\u011btov\u00e9ho reaktorov\u00e9ho paliva, jeho z\u00e1kazn\u00edci rychle zji\u0161\u0165uj\u00ed, \u017ee n\u00e1kup elektr\u00e1rny byl pouze za\u010d\u00e1tkem z\u00e1vislosti.<\/em><\/p>\n

V podstat\u011b jde o trik, kter\u00fd Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty pomohly vymyslet, a pot\u00e9 opustily, hodnot\u00ed to Johnson.<\/em><\/p>\n

\u010c\u00ednsk\u00e1 v\u00fdrobn\u00ed hala<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Pokud Rusko hraje \u0161achy, \u010c\u00edna s\u00e1z\u00ed na masovou v\u00fdrobu.<\/em><\/p>\n

Pekingsk\u00fd jadern\u00fd program za\u010d\u00ednal jako dovozce technologi\u00ed, jako \u017e\u00e1k opisuj\u00edc\u00ed dom\u00e1c\u00ed \u00fakoly od Francouz\u016f, Rus\u016f a Ameri\u010dan\u016f. Dnes je to nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed u\u010debna na sv\u011bt\u011b \u2013 a z\u00e1rove\u0148 u\u010ditel. \u017d\u00e1dn\u00e1 zem\u011b v tomto stolet\u00ed nepostavila v\u00edce reaktor\u016f. \u017d\u00e1dn\u00e1 zem\u011b jich v sou\u010dasn\u00e9 dob\u011b nem\u00e1 v\u00edce ve v\u00fdstavb\u011b.<\/em><\/p>\n

Hnac\u00edm motorem je\u00a0Hualong One<\/strong>, dom\u00e1c\u00ed konstrukce generace III+, kter\u00e1 vze\u0161la z let trp\u011bliv\u00e9ho reverzn\u00edho in\u017een\u00fdrstv\u00ed a integrace \u0159\u00edzen\u00e9 st\u00e1tem. Jeliko\u017e \u010d\u00edn\u0161t\u00ed stavitel\u00e9 reaktor\u016f, regula\u010dn\u00ed org\u00e1ny, banky i ocel\u00e1rny se nakonec zodpov\u00eddaj\u00ed stejn\u00e9mu \u00fast\u0159ed\u00ed Komunistick\u00e9 strany, m\u016f\u017ee zem\u011b prosazovat standardizaci s nemilosrdnost\u00ed, jak\u00e1 je na rozt\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u011bn\u00fdch z\u00e1padn\u00edch trz\u00edch nemo\u017en\u00e1.<\/em><\/p>\n

Kdy\u017e \u010c\u00edna stav\u00ed Hualong One, postav\u00ed i\u00a0 dal\u0161\u00ed Hualong One \u00fapln\u011b\u00a0<\/em>stejn\u00fd,\u00a0<\/em>znovu a znovu. K\u0159ivka u\u010den\u00ed je strm\u00e1, \u010dasov\u00e9 harmonogramy jsou p\u0159edv\u00eddateln\u00e9 \u2013 zhruba p\u011bt a\u017e \u0161est let od v\u00fdkopu po p\u0159ipojen\u00ed k s\u00edti \u2013 a n\u00e1klady pat\u0159\u00ed k nejni\u017e\u0161\u00edm na sv\u011bt\u011b.<\/em><\/p>\n

Nyn\u00ed Peking tento model exportuje. Prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm iniciativy \u201eP\u00e1s a cesta\u201c \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 politick\u00e9 banky kop\u00edruj\u00ed strategii Rosatomu. Elektr\u00e1rny na kl\u00ed\u010d a v\u00e1zan\u00e9 financov\u00e1n\u00ed nab\u00edzej\u00ed P\u00e1kist\u00e1nu, Argentin\u011b a v budoucnu pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b tak\u00e9 Sa\u00fadsk\u00e9 Ar\u00e1bii a velk\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1sti St\u0159edn\u00ed Asie. Americk\u00fd jadern\u00fd pr\u016fmysl, kter\u00fd trp\u00ed nedostatkem exportn\u00edho financov\u00e1n\u00ed a je ochromen t\u0159emi desetilet\u00edmi dom\u00e1c\u00ed ne\u010dinnosti, nem\u00e1 k dispozici \u017e\u00e1dnou srovnatelnou nab\u00eddku.<\/em><\/p>\n

Geopolitick\u00fd reaktor<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Nejde pouze o obchodn\u00ed z\u00e1le\u017eitost. Jde o z\u00e1le\u017eitost strategickou.<\/em><\/p>\n

Jadern\u00e9 elektr\u00e1rny nejsou v\u011btrn\u00e9 farmy. Jsou to z\u00e1vazky na \u0161edes\u00e1t let. Vy\u017eaduj\u00ed palivo, n\u00e1hradn\u00ed d\u00edly, technickou podporu a diplomatickou stabilitu nap\u0159\u00ed\u010d generacemi. N\u00e1rod, kter\u00fd stav\u00ed reaktor na ciz\u00edm \u00fazem\u00ed, neprod\u00e1v\u00e1 elekt\u0159inu, ale\u00a0vzty\u010duje vlajku<\/strong>. Rusko to pochopilo brzy. \u010c\u00edna se u\u010d\u00ed rychle. Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty, navzdory sv\u00fdm obrovsk\u00fdm bezpe\u010dnostn\u00edm z\u00e1jm\u016fm na stabiln\u00edch trz\u00edch s n\u00edzkouhl\u00edkovou energi\u00ed, toto pole fakticky p\u0159enechaly jin\u00fdm.<\/em><\/p>\n

Washington se te\u010f sna\u017e\u00ed situaci zvr\u00e1tit. Do demonstrac\u00ed pokro\u010dil\u00fdch reaktor\u016f proud\u00ed miliardy z nov\u00fdch feder\u00e1ln\u00edch prost\u0159edk\u016f. Prob\u00edh\u00e1 snaha o obnoven\u00ed dom\u00e1c\u00edho obohacov\u00e1n\u00ed uranu pot\u00e9, co si tv\u016frci politik s opo\u017ed\u011bn\u00edm uv\u011bdomili, \u017ee americk\u00e9 reaktory udr\u017euje v chodu rusk\u00e9 palivo.<\/em><\/p>\n

Start-upy s n\u00e1zvy jako TerraPower a NuScale slibuj\u00ed budoucnost, v n\u00ed\u017e budou reaktory mal\u00e9, modul\u00e1rn\u00ed a vyr\u00e1b\u011bn\u00e9 v tov\u00e1rn\u00e1ch \u2013 \u010d\u00edm\u017e se obejdou stavebn\u00ed probl\u00e9my, kter\u00e9 pohltily projekt Vogtle. Nad\u011bje v\u0161ak nen\u00ed strategie. A pl\u00e1ny samy o sob\u011b nevytv\u00e1\u0159ej\u00ed diplomatick\u00fd vliv.<\/em><\/p>\n

Nep\u0159\u00edjemnou pravdou je, \u017ee p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edch dvacet let glob\u00e1ln\u00ed jadern\u00e9 expanze se bude odehr\u00e1vat p\u0159ev\u00e1\u017en\u011b v\u00a0rusk\u00e9 azbuce a \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fdch znac\u00edch, pokud Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty nep\u0159ijdou na to, jak p\u0159ev\u00e9st laboratorn\u00ed genialitu do pr\u00e1ce buldozer\u016f. Nesta\u010d\u00ed vynal\u00e9zt reaktor budoucnosti. N\u011bkdo mus\u00ed je\u0161t\u011b vybetonovat z\u00e1klady, nap\u0159ed jednou, pak podruh\u00e9, a v\u017edy tak levn\u011b, aby zahrani\u010dn\u00ed ministr financ\u00ed \u0159ekl \u201eano\u201c m\u00edsto aby p\u0159ijal hovor z Moskvy.<\/em><\/p>\n

Atom se zrodil v Americe. Zda z\u016fstane americk\u00fd, m\u016f\u017ee z\u00e1viset m\u00e9n\u011b na fyzic\u00edch ne\u017e na instalat\u00e9rech, projektov\u00fdch mana\u017eerech a politick\u00e9m syst\u00e9mu, kter\u00fd je ochoten pova\u017eovat v\u00fdstavbu jadern\u00fdch elektr\u00e1ren za n\u00e1rodn\u00ed infrastrukturu, nikoli za hazard na Wall Streetu.<\/em><\/p>\n

Pokud Trump v r\u00e1mci dohody nenab\u00eddne instalaci zlat\u00fdch toalet zdarma, Sa\u00fadov\u00e9 se mo\u017en\u00e1 budou cht\u00edt sej\u00edt s Rusy nebo \u010c\u00ed\u0148any a zv\u00e1\u017eit dohodu, kter\u00e1 od nich nebude vy\u017eadovat, aby se klan\u011bli p\u0159ed Bibi Netanjahuem, uzav\u00edr\u00e1 Larry Johnson.<\/em><\/p>\n

Zbyn\u011bk Fiala<\/a><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

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Amerika se v jadern\u00e9 energetice vyzn\u00e1. Jen u\u017e ji nedok\u00e1\u017ee stav\u011bt, p\u00ed\u0161e Larry Johnson na…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":26076,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[6],"tags":[1042,2998,183,37],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/111644"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=111644"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/111644\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/26076"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=111644"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=111644"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=111644"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}