{"id":111641,"date":"2026-07-26T03:37:35","date_gmt":"2026-07-26T01:37:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=111641"},"modified":"2026-07-26T03:37:35","modified_gmt":"2026-07-26T01:37:35","slug":"klimaticka-propaganda-ard-zaplavy-v-assamu-se-stavaji-dezinformaci-verejnopravniho-vysilani","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/07\/26\/klimaticka-propaganda-ard-zaplavy-v-assamu-se-stavaji-dezinformaci-verejnopravniho-vysilani\/","title":{"rendered":"Klimatick\u00e1 propaganda ARD: Z\u00e1plavy v Assamu se st\u00e1vaj\u00ed dezinformac\u00ed ve\u0159ejnopr\u00e1vn\u00edho vys\u00edl\u00e1n\u00ed"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Jakmile se Assam ocitne pod vodou, Tagesschau (hlavn\u00ed n\u011bmeck\u00fd ve\u010dern\u00ed zpravodajsk\u00fd program) u\u017e zn\u00e1 \u00fadajn\u00e9ho vin\u00edka. \u201ePodle odborn\u00edk\u016f\u201c zp\u016fsobuje \u010dlov\u011bkem zp\u016fsoben\u00e1 zm\u011bna klimatu intenzivn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed monzunov\u00e9 de\u0161t\u011b v ji\u017en\u00ed Asii. Jako obvykle neexistuj\u00ed \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e1 jm\u00e9na, studie ani \u0159ady m\u011b\u0159en\u00ed, kter\u00e9 by toto tvrzen\u00ed podpo\u0159ily. Existuj\u00ed v\u0161ak data za 146 let, kter\u00e1 ukazuj\u00ed pokles monzunov\u00fdch sr\u00e1\u017eek v severov\u00fdchodn\u00ed Indii \u2013 ale pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00fd div\u00e1k o tom nen\u00ed informov\u00e1n. Ov\u011b\u0159en\u00ed fakt\u016f.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

P\u0159i rozs\u00e1hl\u00fdch z\u00e1plav\u00e1ch v indick\u00e9m st\u00e1t\u011b \u00c1s\u00e1m zem\u0159elo nejm\u00e9n\u011b 50 lid\u00ed. P\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 700 000 lid\u00ed bylo nuceno opustit sv\u00e9 domovy a t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 300 000 na\u0161lo \u00fato\u010di\u0161t\u011b ve vl\u00e1dn\u00edch nouzov\u00fdch p\u0159\u00edst\u0159e\u0161c\u00edch. Zaplaveno bylo p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 900 vesnic a v\u00edce ne\u017e 7 000 dom\u016f bylo bez proudu. Ni\u010div\u00e1 katastrofa \u2013 a p\u0159esto ne neobvykl\u00e1: rozs\u00e1hl\u00e9 z\u00e1plavy jsou v \u00c1s\u00e1mu b\u011bhem monzunov\u00e9ho obdob\u00ed t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 ka\u017edodenn\u00edm jevem. Pro Tagesschau\u00a0<\/span>(<\/span><\/a>\u00a0hlavn\u00ed n\u011bmeck\u00fd ve\u010dern\u00ed zpravodajsk\u00fd po\u0159ad) je to v\u0161ak zjevn\u011b jen dal\u0161\u00ed p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitost, jak do z\u00e1b\u011br\u016f z katastrofy vt\u011bsnat dnes ji\u017e povinn\u00e1 hrozn\u00e1 varov\u00e1n\u00ed p\u0159ed zm\u011bnou klimatu.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201ePodle odborn\u00edk\u016f zp\u016fsobuje zm\u011bna klimatu vyvolan\u00e1 \u010dlov\u011bkem v ji\u017en\u00ed Asii intenzivn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed monzunov\u00e9 de\u0161t\u011b,\u201c tvrd\u00ed ARD. Kdo tito odborn\u00edci jsou, nen\u00ed odhaleno. \u017d\u00e1dn\u00e1 jm\u00e9na, \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 instituce, \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e1 studie o sou\u010dasn\u00fdch z\u00e1plav\u00e1ch, \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e1 nam\u011b\u0159en\u00e1 data pro Assam. V\u011bta je t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 doslovn\u011b p\u0159evzata ze zpr\u00e1vy agentury\u00a0<\/span>Associated Press<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, kter\u00e1 rovn\u011b\u017e cituje pouze anonymn\u00ed \u201eodborn\u00edky\u201c. ARD tedy neprovedla \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fd v\u00fdzkum, ale jednodu\u0161e se dr\u017eela kli\u0161\u00e9 bez zdroje \u2013 ani\u017e by se obt\u011b\u017eovala tuto skute\u010dnost uznat.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ani vysv\u011btlen\u00ed monzunu nen\u00ed dostate\u010dn\u011b pe\u010dliv\u011b zpracov\u00e1no. Obdob\u00ed de\u0161\u0165\u016f se obecn\u011b uv\u00e1d\u00ed jako obdob\u00ed od \u010dervna do z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed a pot\u00e9 znovu od \u0159\u00edjna do prosince. Ve skute\u010dnosti existuj\u00ed dva odli\u0161n\u00e9 syst\u00e9my: jihoz\u00e1padn\u00ed monzun p\u0159in\u00e1\u0161\u00ed do Indie nejv\u00edce de\u0161\u0165\u016f od \u010dervna do z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed a je kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fd pro Assam. Severov\u00fdchodn\u00ed monzun, kter\u00fd trv\u00e1 od \u0159\u00edjna do prosince, z\u00e1sobuje sr\u00e1\u017ekami p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm jih poloostrova, a zejm\u00e9na Tamiln\u00e1du. Pro klimatick\u00e9 fanatiky je to jednodu\u0161e ztoto\u017en\u011bno s jedin\u00fdm, nep\u0159etr\u017eit\u00fdm obdob\u00edm de\u0161\u0165\u016f v Ji\u017en\u00ed Asii.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Pro Assam a severov\u00fdchodn\u00ed Indii je toto tvrzen\u00ed je\u0161t\u011b m\u00e9n\u011b platn\u00e9. Studie \u201e\u00a0<\/span>Hodnocen\u00ed dopadu zm\u011bny klimatu na sr\u00e1\u017ekov\u00e9 vzorce v severov\u00fdchodn\u00ed Indii a jej\u00ed d\u016fsledky pro vodn\u00ed zdroje a zem\u011bd\u011blstv\u00ed ovlivn\u011bn\u00e9 de\u0161\u0165ov\u00fdmi sr\u00e1\u017ekami<\/span><\/a>\u00a0\u201c, publikovan\u00e1 v \u010dasopise \u201eEarth\u201c v lednu 2025, analyzovala 146 let dat o sr\u00e1\u017ek\u00e1ch. V\u00fdsledek je jasn\u00fd: mno\u017estv\u00ed sr\u00e1\u017eek b\u011bhem zimn\u00edho a monzunov\u00e9ho obdob\u00ed kles\u00e1. Tento pokles se za posledn\u00ed t\u0159i desetilet\u00ed dokonce zrychlil, zat\u00edmco statistick\u00e9 \u010dekac\u00ed doby na spolehliv\u011b dostupn\u00e1 data o sr\u00e1\u017ek\u00e1ch se v\u00fdrazn\u011b prodlou\u017eily.<\/span><\/p>\n

Studie publikovan\u00e1 v \u010dervenci 2026 v \u010dasopise \u201e\u00a0<\/span>Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres<\/span><\/a>\u00a0\u201c je\u0161t\u011b v\u00edce vyvrac\u00ed narativ ARD. V \u010dl\u00e1nku \u201eFaktory za zm\u011bnou extr\u00e9m\u016f: Zm\u011bna sr\u00e1\u017eek je ovlivn\u011bna jej\u00ed prom\u011bnlivost\u00ed, zat\u00edmco zm\u011bna teploty je ovlivn\u011bna jej\u00edm pr\u016fm\u011brem\u201c analyzovali Subhasmita Dash a Rajib Maity denn\u00ed \u00fadaje o teplot\u011b a sr\u00e1\u017ek\u00e1ch z cel\u00e9 Indie. Ve v\u011bt\u0161in\u011b severov\u00fdchodn\u00ed Indie nezjistili n\u00e1r\u016fst, ale pokles extr\u00e9mn\u00edch sr\u00e1\u017ekov\u00fdch ud\u00e1lost\u00ed. Tato velmi ned\u00e1vn\u00e1 studie n\u00e1padn\u011b chyb\u00ed v \u00fadajn\u011b v\u011bdecky podlo\u017een\u00e9m klimatick\u00e9m prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed Tagesschau.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ani n\u00e1sledky povodn\u00ed se nestup\u0148uj\u00ed<\/span><\/h3>\n

Ani datov\u00e1 \u0159ada EM-DAT publikovan\u00e1 \u010dasopisem Our World in Data nevykresluje obraz st\u00e1le se stup\u0148uj\u00edc\u00ed povod\u0148ov\u00e9 katastrofy. Od roku 1960 nedo\u0161lo v Indii k trval\u00e9mu n\u00e1r\u016fstu po\u010dtu lid\u00ed posti\u017een\u00fdch povodn\u011bmi. Po\u010det ob\u011bt\u00ed povodn\u00ed tak\u00e9 stagnuje, nebo se dlouhodob\u011b dokonce sni\u017euje. Hl\u00e1\u0161en\u00e9 ekonomick\u00e9 \u0161kody dnes nejsou znateln\u011b vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e v p\u0159edchoz\u00edch desetilet\u00edch \u2013 a to i p\u0159es pokra\u010duj\u00edc\u00ed popula\u010dn\u00ed r\u016fst.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Tato \u010d\u00edsla p\u0159\u00edmo nem\u011b\u0159\u00ed intenzitu monzunov\u00fdch de\u0161\u0165\u016f. Ukazuj\u00ed v\u0161ak, \u017ee \u00fadajn\u00e9 zhor\u0161en\u00ed t\u011bchto podm\u00ednek se automaticky neprom\u00edt\u00e1 do v\u011bt\u0161\u00edho po\u010dtu ob\u011bt\u00ed a st\u00e1le v\u011bt\u0161\u00edch \u0161kod. P\u0159esto pr\u00e1v\u011b \u00famrt\u00edmi, vys\u00eddlen\u00edm a zaplaven\u00fdmi vesnic\u00ed Tagesschau (hlavn\u00ed n\u011bmeck\u00fd ve\u010dern\u00ed zpravodajsk\u00fd program) v kone\u010dn\u00e9m d\u016fsledku vytv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed emocion\u00e1ln\u00ed r\u00e1mec pro sv\u00e9 klimatick\u00e9 sd\u011blen\u00ed. Pokud se d\u016fsledky povodn\u00ed pou\u017e\u00edvaj\u00ed jako d\u016fkaz \u201eintenzivn\u011bj\u0161\u00edho monzunu\u201c, lze se pt\u00e1t, pro\u010d dlouhodob\u00e9 d\u016fsledky nevykazuj\u00ed odpov\u00eddaj\u00edc\u00ed n\u00e1r\u016fst.<\/span><\/p>\n

Mnohem v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed historickou hrozbou pro Indii v\u0161ak byl ne\u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u00fd monzun. Po dvou slab\u00fdch obdob\u00edch de\u0161\u0165\u016f se n\u00e1rodn\u00ed produkce obil\u00ed propadla z 89,4 milionu tun ve fisk\u00e1ln\u00edm roce 1964\/65 na 72,3 milionu tun v n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00edm roce. Indie se pono\u0159ila do v\u00e1\u017en\u00e9 krize z\u00e1sobov\u00e1n\u00ed a stala se z\u00e1vislou na rozs\u00e1hl\u00e9m dovozu potravin. Spolehliv\u00e9 monzunov\u00e9 de\u0161t\u011b pro zemi neznamenaj\u00ed katastrofu, ale sp\u00ed\u0161e vodu, \u00farodu a potraviny. P\u0159\u00edli\u0161 m\u00e1lo sr\u00e1\u017eek m\u016f\u017ee p\u0159ipravit miliony lid\u00ed o \u017eivobyt\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Ned\u00e1vn\u00e9 sr\u00e1\u017eky byly nicm\u00e9n\u011b v\u00fdjime\u010dn\u00e9. Hlavn\u00ed ministr Assamu, Himanta Biswa Sarma, hl\u00e1sil mno\u017estv\u00ed sr\u00e1\u017eek v \u010d\u00e1stech Assamu a sousedn\u00edho Nagalandu, kter\u00e9 bylo zhruba o 500 procent vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e obvykle. Extr\u00e9mn\u00ed pov\u011btrnostn\u00ed jev v\u0161ak nen\u00ed klimatick\u00fdm trendem \u2013 a u\u017e v\u016fbec ne d\u016fkazem, \u017ee tyto z\u00e1plavy zp\u016fsobily lidsk\u00e9 emise CO2. K tomu by byla zapot\u0159eb\u00ed studie atribuce. Tagesschau \u017e\u00e1dnou neprovedl.<\/span><\/p>\n

Existuje mnoho velmi re\u00e1ln\u00fdch p\u0159\u00ed\u010din k prozkoum\u00e1n\u00ed. P\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 40 procent Assamu je ohro\u017eeno z\u00e1plavami. \u0158eka Brahmaputra s sebou nese obrovsk\u00e9 mno\u017estv\u00ed sediment\u016f, m\u011bn\u00ed sv\u016fj tok a pravideln\u011b zaplavuje p\u0159ilehl\u00e9 pl\u00e1n\u011b. Star\u00e9 p\u0159ehrady, os\u00eddlen\u00e9 z\u00e1plavov\u00e9 oblasti, odlesn\u011bn\u00e9 svahy, zasypan\u00e9 mok\u0159ady a ucpan\u00e9 odvod\u0148ovac\u00ed p\u0159\u00edkopy situaci zhor\u0161uj\u00ed. Assamsk\u00e1 agentura pro zvl\u00e1d\u00e1n\u00ed katastrof ji\u017e l\u00e9ta vyz\u00fdv\u00e1 k zastaven\u00ed v\u00fdstavby na svaz\u00edch, v mok\u0159adech a pod\u00e9l p\u0159irozen\u00fdch odvod\u0148ovac\u00edch kan\u00e1l\u016f. Politick\u00e9 selh\u00e1n\u00ed, \u0161patn\u00e9 urbanistick\u00e9 pl\u00e1nov\u00e1n\u00ed a nedostate\u010dn\u00e1 ochrana p\u0159ed povodn\u011bmi v\u0161ak prost\u011b nezapadaj\u00ed do dystopick\u00fdch narativ\u016f o CO2.<\/span><\/p>\n

Takhle funguje modern\u00ed klimatick\u00e1 \u017eurnalistika (nebo bychom ji m\u011bli sp\u00ed\u0161e naz\u00fdvat \u201emodern\u00ed klimatick\u00e1 dezinformace\u201c?): Je prezentov\u00e1na skute\u010dn\u00e1 katastrofa, se\u010dtou se ob\u011bti a zni\u010den\u00e9 domy a pot\u00e9 je nalepena n\u00e1lepka klimatick\u00fdch zm\u011bn zp\u016fsoben\u00fdch \u010dlov\u011bkem. P\u0159\u00edslu\u0161n\u00ed \u201eodborn\u00edci\u201c z\u016fst\u00e1vaj\u00ed anonymn\u00ed, protich\u016fdn\u00e1 data jsou potla\u010dena a lok\u00e1ln\u00ed p\u0159\u00ed\u010diny ze zpr\u00e1vy miz\u00ed. Ov\u011b\u0159ovatel\u016fm fakt\u016f ve ve\u0159ejnopr\u00e1vn\u00edch vys\u00edlac\u00edch spole\u010dnostech to nevad\u00ed. Zjevn\u011b rad\u011bji sleduj\u00ed kritiky narativu ne\u017e samotn\u00fd narativ.<\/span><\/p>\n

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 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Jakmile se Assam ocitne pod vodou, Tagesschau (hlavn\u00ed n\u011bmeck\u00fd ve\u010dern\u00ed zpravodajsk\u00fd program) u\u017e zn\u00e1 \u00fadajn\u00e9ho…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":111642,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[28,873,84,904,1698],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/111641"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=111641"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/111641\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/111642"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=111641"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=111641"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=111641"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}