{"id":111520,"date":"2026-07-25T00:11:46","date_gmt":"2026-07-24T22:11:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=111520"},"modified":"2026-07-24T08:54:40","modified_gmt":"2026-07-24T06:54:40","slug":"rozhovor-celime-nejnebezpecnejsi-fazi-valky","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/07\/25\/rozhovor-celime-nejnebezpecnejsi-fazi-valky\/","title":{"rendered":"ROZHOVOR: \u010cel\u00edme nejnebezpe\u010dn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed f\u00e1zi v\u00e1lky"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"fb-root\"><\/div>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">V exkluzivn\u00edm rozhovoru s britsk\u00fdm novin\u00e1\u0159em Georgem Gallowayem varuje v\u00fdznamn\u00fd politolog a expert na Bl\u00edzk\u00fd v\u00fdchod Seyed Mohammad Marandi p\u0159ed dramatickou eskalac\u00ed konfliktu mezi USA a \u00cdr\u00e1nem. Sou\u010dasnou f\u00e1zi popisuje jako \u201enejrozhodn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed a nejnebezpe\u010dn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed f\u00e1zi v\u00e1lky\u201c. Zhruba t\u0159icetiminutov\u00fd rozhovor, kter\u00fd kv\u016fli technick\u00fdm probl\u00e9m\u016fm za\u010dal kr\u00e1tk\u00fdm \u00favodem hosta, vykresluje bez\u00fat\u011b\u0161n\u00fd obraz geopolitick\u00e9 situace: USA ji\u017e prohr\u00e1ly dv\u011b f\u00e1ze v\u00e1lky proti \u00cdr\u00e1nu \u2013 nejprve 40denn\u00ed \u00fato\u010dnou v\u00e1lku a pot\u00e9 obl\u00e9h\u00e1n\u00ed sankcemi. Nyn\u00ed prezident Trump hroz\u00ed zni\u010den\u00edm \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 infrastruktury, co\u017e by podle experta spustilo ni\u010divou \u0159et\u011bzovou reakci, kter\u00e1 by mohla prom\u011bnit cel\u00fd Persk\u00fd z\u00e1liv v po\u017e\u00e1r a uvrhnout glob\u00e1ln\u00ed ekonomiku do deprese hor\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e ta ve 30. letech 20. stolet\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\"><iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"ROZHOVOR: Vstupujeme do nejnebezpe\u010dn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed \u010d\u00e1sti v\u00e1lky\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/nB3XUoqu2JE?feature=oembed\" width=\"800\" height=\"450\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\" data-mce-fragment=\"1\"><\/iframe><\/div>\n<\/figure>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span dir=\"auto\">\u010c\u00e1st 1: Vojensk\u00e1 situace \u2013 Pro\u010d se nach\u00e1z\u00edme v nejnebezpe\u010dn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed f\u00e1zi v\u00e1lky<\/span><\/h2>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span dir=\"auto\">Hodnocen\u00ed ne\u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u00fdch americk\u00fdch strategi\u00ed<\/span><\/h3>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">\u201eSpojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty vedly proti \u00cdr\u00e1nu neleg\u00e1ln\u00ed a neopr\u00e1vn\u011bnou v\u00e1lku \u2013 spole\u010dn\u011b s Netanjahuov\u00fdm re\u017eimem a za pln\u00e9 pomoci Kataru, Sa\u00fadsk\u00e9 Ar\u00e1bie, Spojen\u00fdch arabsk\u00fdch emir\u00e1t\u016f, Kuvajtu a Bahrajnu,\u201c vysv\u011btluje expert hned na \u00favod. \u201eV\u0161ichni jsou sou\u010d\u00e1st\u00ed t\u00e9to koalice a nikdo \u00cdr\u00e1nu nepomohl.\u201c Tato \u0161irok\u00e1 aliance proti Isl\u00e1msk\u00e9 republice v\u0161ak selhala \u2013 vojensky i ekonomicky.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Prvn\u00ed f\u00e1zi v\u00e1lky, 40denn\u00ed ofenz\u00edvu, USA prohr\u00e1ly. Ani n\u00e1sledn\u00e9 obl\u00e9h\u00e1n\u00ed prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm sankc\u00ed nedos\u00e1hlo po\u017eadovan\u00e9ho efektu. \u201eProto museli ustoupit,\u201c uvedl expert. \u00cdr\u00e1n podepsal dohodu (pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b s odkazem na jadernou dohodu JCPOA) pouze proto, \u017ee byla pro zemi v\u00fdhodn\u00e1 \u2013 i kdy\u017e v\u011bd\u011bli, \u017ee USA l\u017eou a p\u0159ipravuj\u00ed se na dal\u0161\u00ed v\u00e1lku.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span dir=\"auto\">Poru\u0161en\u00ed dohody<\/span><\/h3>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">USA brzy poru\u0161ily Memorandum o porozum\u011bn\u00ed (MoU): Odm\u00edtly na\u0159\u00eddit Izraeli, aby zastavil bombardov\u00e1n\u00ed Libanonu, a odm\u00edtly uvolnit zmrazen\u00e1 aktiva \u00cdr\u00e1nu. \u201eA pak se pokusily ovl\u00e1dnout Hormuzsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv a podkopat pravomoc dohodnutou v \u010dl\u00e1nku 5 JCPOA,\u201c uvedl expert.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Trump nyn\u00ed hroz\u00ed zni\u010den\u00edm cel\u00e9 \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 infrastruktury \u2013 most\u016f, elektr\u00e1ren, odsolovac\u00edch za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed. \u201eA \u00cdr\u00e1nci velmi otev\u0159en\u011b a jasn\u011b \u0159ekli, \u017ee zni\u010d\u00ed kritickou infrastrukturu v\u0161ech re\u017eim\u016f, kter\u00e9 jsou na t\u00e9to v\u00e1lce spoluvin\u00edky,\u201c varuje expert.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span dir=\"auto\">Hormuzsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv jako rozhoduj\u00edc\u00ed faktor<\/span><\/h3>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Strategick\u00fd pr\u016fliv mezi Persk\u00fdm a Om\u00e1nsk\u00fdm z\u00e1livem je \u00fast\u0159edn\u00edm bodem eskalace. \u00cdr\u00e1n \u201enedovol\u00ed \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fdm lod\u00edm opustit Hormuzsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv bez \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9ho povolen\u00ed,\u201c uvedl expert. To bylo sou\u010d\u00e1st\u00ed dohody mezi \u00cdr\u00e1nem a USA: \u00cdr\u00e1n bude regulovat lodn\u00ed dopravu p\u0159es pr\u016fliv a kontrolovat obchod.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">\u201ePokud p\u0159ipluje lo\u010f, \u00cdr\u00e1n ji zas\u00e1hne,\u201c prohla\u0161uje Marandi jasn\u011b. Pak se Trump bude muset rozhodnout: \u201eChce bombardovat mosty a elektr\u00e1rny? Pokud ano, \u00cdr\u00e1n bombarduje elektr\u00e1rny a dal\u0161\u00ed politickou infrastrukturu v re\u017eimech kolem Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu.\u201c<\/span><\/p>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span dir=\"auto\">Pro\u010d m\u00e1 \u00cdr\u00e1n rozhoduj\u00edc\u00ed v\u00fdhody<\/span><\/h3>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Rozd\u00edly mezi \u00cdr\u00e1nem a st\u00e1ty Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu by podle experta nemohly b\u00fdt v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong><span dir=\"auto\">Po\u010det obyvatel<\/span><\/strong><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0: \u00cdr\u00e1n m\u00e1 90 milion\u016f obyvatel, kte\u0159\u00ed se rozkl\u00e1daj\u00ed na rozlehl\u00e9 zemi s decentralizovanou infrastrukturou.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><strong><span dir=\"auto\">Zem\u011bd\u011blstv\u00ed<\/span><\/strong><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0: \u00cdr\u00e1n je v zem\u011bd\u011blstv\u00ed sob\u011bsta\u010dn\u00fd, m\u00e1 hory, \u0159eky a vodn\u00ed n\u00e1dr\u017ee. Pouze 1 % \u00cdr\u00e1nc\u016f vyu\u017e\u00edv\u00e1 odsolovac\u00ed za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed pro z\u00e1sobov\u00e1n\u00ed vodou.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><strong><span dir=\"auto\">Zku\u0161enosti se sankcemi<\/span><\/strong><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0: \u00cdr\u00e1n je pod sankcemi po cel\u00e1 desetilet\u00ed a nerozv\u00edj\u00ed sv\u00e9 zdroje ropy a zemn\u00edho plynu ve stejn\u00e9 m\u00ed\u0159e jako jeho soused\u00e9.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Naproti tomu st\u00e1ty Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu vybudovaly celou svou infrastrukturu s pomoc\u00ed Z\u00e1padu. Jsou proto, jak zd\u016fraz\u0148uje expert, \u201emnohem zraniteln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed\u201c. \u201ePokud \u00cdr\u00e1n podnikne odvetn\u00e9 kroky, tyto zem\u011b se zhrout\u00ed. Rozpadnou se. Lid\u00e9 budou muset odej\u00edt. Opust\u00ed zem\u011b \u2013 a\u0165 u\u017e je to Katar nebo Emir\u00e1ty, Sa\u00fadsk\u00e1 Ar\u00e1bie nebo Kuvajt, mo\u017en\u00e1 i Om\u00e1n a Bahrajn.\u201c<\/span><\/p>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span dir=\"auto\">Konec st\u00e1t\u016f Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu a ropn\u00e9ho pr\u016fmyslu<\/span><\/h3>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">D\u016fsledky by byly katastrof\u00e1ln\u00ed: \u201eTohle bude konec t\u011bchto zem\u00ed a konec ropn\u00e9ho a plyn\u00e1rensk\u00e9ho pr\u016fmyslu v t\u011bchto zem\u00edch na n\u011bkolik p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edch let \u2013 mo\u017en\u00e1 i mnohem d\u00e9le,\u201c \u0159ekl Marandi. \u201eA pak ani nebude jasn\u00e9, kdo bude t\u011bmto zem\u00edm vl\u00e1dnout.\u201c<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Nasti\u0148uje mo\u017en\u00e9 sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e: \u201eMo\u017en\u00e1 Ir\u00e1k p\u0159evezme Kuvajt. Mo\u017en\u00e1 se Bahrajn vr\u00e1t\u00ed \u00cdr\u00e1nu. Mo\u017en\u00e1 dojde k vnit\u0159n\u00edm konflikt\u016fm v Sa\u00fadsk\u00e9 Ar\u00e1bii a Spojen\u00fdch arabsk\u00fdch emir\u00e1tech.\u201c V\u00fdsledkem bude podle n\u011bj glob\u00e1ln\u00ed ekonomick\u00fd kolaps \u2013 \u201eokam\u017eit\u00fd\u201c.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span dir=\"auto\">Trumpovo dilema<\/span><\/h3>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Marandi vid\u00ed Trumpa v beznad\u011bjn\u00e9 situaci: \u201eJe zoufal\u00fd a rozzloben\u00fd, proto\u017ee \u00cdr\u00e1nci zni\u010dili americk\u00e9 z\u00e1kladny v cel\u00e9m regionu Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu.\u201c Ameri\u010dan\u00e9 se st\u00e1hli na z\u00e1pad \u2013 do Sa\u00fadsk\u00e9 Ar\u00e1bie a Jord\u00e1nska \u2013 kde je nyn\u00ed zasahuj\u00ed \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 p\u0159esn\u00e9 rakety.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Ztr\u00e1ty jsou mnohem vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed, ne\u017e USA p\u0159ipou\u0161t\u00ed, a \u0161kody na americk\u00e9 infrastruktu\u0159e jsou obrovsk\u00e9. \u201eV\u0161echny kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e9 \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 zdroje jsou pod zem\u00ed,\u201c vysv\u011btluje expert. \u201eProto cht\u011bj\u00ed USA bombardovat kritickou infrastrukturu \u00cdr\u00e1nu \u2013 proto\u017ee nemohou bombardovat jeho vojensk\u00e9 z\u00e1kladny.\u201c<\/span><\/p>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span dir=\"auto\">\u00daloha sionist\u016f<\/span><\/h3>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Marandi vid\u00ed jasnou odpov\u011bdnost: \u201eToto nen\u00ed v z\u00e1jmu americk\u00e9ho lidu. Nen\u00ed to v z\u00e1jmu lid\u00ed cel\u00e9ho sv\u011bta. Ti, kdo tuto v\u00e1lku prosazuj\u00ed, jsou sionist\u00e9.\u201c<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Klade si v\u00fdbu\u0161nou ot\u00e1zku: \u201eCo maj\u00ed proti Trumpovi? Kdo v\u00ed?\u201c Trump \u017eene sv\u011bt do \u201evelmi, velmi nebezpe\u010dn\u00e9 situace\u201c. Jeho p\u0159edpov\u011b\u010f: \u201eNastane velk\u00e1 hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e1 krize \u2013 hor\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e ve 30. letech 20. stolet\u00ed.\u201c<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span dir=\"auto\">\u010c\u00e1st 2: Sa\u00fadsk\u00e1 Ar\u00e1bie, Jemen a ekonomick\u00e9 d\u016fsledky<\/span><\/h2>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span dir=\"auto\">Jemensk\u00fd faktor<\/span><\/h3>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Druhou frontou, kter\u00e1 je \u010dasto p\u0159ehl\u00ed\u017eena, je Jemen. Sa\u00fadsk\u00e1 Ar\u00e1bie se podle experta dostala do beznad\u011bjn\u00e9 situace svou vlastn\u00ed v\u00e1le\u010dnou politikou.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">\u201eSa\u00fadov\u00e9 si to zp\u016fsobili sami,\u201c prohla\u0161uje. \u201eZ\u00e1pad a v\u0161echny tyto re\u017eimy v regionu vedou v\u00e1lku proti Jemenu u\u017e l\u00e9ta \u2013 v\u00e1lku genocidy velmi podobnou t\u00e9 v Gaze.\u201c Zapojeny byly v\u0161echny zem\u011b v regionu \u2013 Katar, Jord\u00e1nsko, Turecko, Emir\u00e1ty.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">K rozhoduj\u00edc\u00ed eskalaci do\u0161lo, kdy\u017e Sa\u00fadov\u00e9 bombardovali mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed leti\u0161t\u011b v San\u00e1. \u201eTo byla kapka, kter\u00e1 p\u0159elila velbloudovi h\u0159bet,\u201c \u0159ekl expert. \u00cdr\u00e1n vyslal na leti\u0161t\u011b civiln\u00ed delegaci, aby vyzvedla delegaci na poh\u0159eb. Kdy\u017e se letadlo p\u0159i zp\u00e1te\u010dn\u00edm letu bl\u00ed\u017eilo k leti\u0161ti, Sa\u00fadov\u00e9 ho bombardovali.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">\u201eTo v \u00cdr\u00e1nu vyvolalo naprost\u00e9 pobou\u0159en\u00ed,\u201c \u0159ekl expert. \u201eBylo to civiln\u00ed dopravn\u00ed letadlo. Pos\u00e1dku tvo\u0159ili oby\u010dejn\u00ed civilist\u00e9 \u2013 mu\u017ei i \u017eeny. N\u011bkter\u00e9 z lid\u00ed na palub\u011b jsem znal osobn\u011b.\u201c<\/span><\/p>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span dir=\"auto\">Jemensk\u00e1 reakce: Sa\u00fadsk\u00e9 obl\u00e9h\u00e1n\u00ed<\/span><\/h3>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Jemen n\u00e1sledn\u011b zavedl n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed blok\u00e1du sa\u00fadskoarabsk\u00fdch p\u0159\u00edstav\u016f v Rud\u00e9m mo\u0159i. \u201eA to cenu ropy je\u0161t\u011b zv\u00fd\u0161\u00ed.\u201c<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Ironie situace: \u201eSa\u00fadov\u00e9 u\u017e jednou s Jemenem prohr\u00e1li. St\u00e1le prohr\u00e1vaj\u00ed s \u00cdr\u00e1nem. A nyn\u00ed je ir\u00e1ck\u00fd odpor p\u0159ipraven na v\u00e1lku \u2013 s v\u011bt\u0161\u00edm po\u010dtem voj\u00e1k\u016f ne\u017e Hizball\u00e1h a p\u0159\u00edstupem k nejlep\u0161\u00edm dostupn\u00fdm zbran\u00edm.\u201c<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Ot\u00e1zka zn\u00ed: \u201eJak m\u016f\u017ee Sa\u00fadsk\u00e1 Ar\u00e1bie vyhr\u00e1t?\u201c Jemen jednodu\u0161e pot\u0159ebuje zni\u010dit sa\u00fadskou ropnou infrastrukturu \u2013 \u201ejak to ud\u011blali jednou p\u0159ed p\u00e1r lety, aby vynutili p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed.\u201c Sa\u00fadsk\u00e1 Ar\u00e1bie nen\u00ed v pozici, kdy by mohla bojovat. \u201ePokud bude zasa\u017eena jejich kritick\u00e1 infrastruktura, v\u0161ichni se zhrout\u00ed.\u201c<\/span><\/p>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span dir=\"auto\">Ekonomick\u00e1 \u010dasovan\u00e1 bomba<\/span><\/h3>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Dotazovan\u00fd uv\u00e1d\u00ed p\u0159\u00edmou souvislost mezi vojenskou eskalac\u00ed a ekonomick\u00fdmi d\u016fsledky. \u201eLid\u00e9 nyn\u00ed vid\u00ed, jak cena ropy roste. A v nadch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00edch dnech, pokud Trump tuto hrozbu spln\u00ed, cena ropy prudce vzroste \u2013 a stejn\u011b tak i dal\u0161\u00ed komodity.\u201c<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Marandi poukazuje na sou\u010dasnou cenu ropy Brent: \u201eP\u0159es 90 dolar\u016f za barel \u2013 to je pap\u00edrov\u00e1 cena.\u201c Jeden podnikatel mu vysv\u011btlil, \u017ee skute\u010dn\u00e1 cena je sp\u00ed\u0161e 150 dolar\u016f \u2013 a to je jen za\u010d\u00e1tek.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">\u201ePokud cena ropy prudce vzroste, rychle dos\u00e1hne ceny, kterou si nikdo nebude moci dovolit,\u201c varuje expert. \u201ePak se v\u0161echny tov\u00e1rny zav\u0159ou. Pak se zav\u0159ou v\u0161echny podniky. Pak vypadne elekt\u0159ina. Pak se zhrout\u00ed ve\u0159ejn\u00e9 slu\u017eby. Pak za\u010dne selh\u00e1vat internet.\u201c<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Dod\u00e1v\u00e1: \u201eBudeme \u017e\u00edt na \u00fapln\u011b jin\u00e9m m\u00edst\u011b.\u201c<\/span><\/p>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span dir=\"auto\">D\u016fsledky pro glob\u00e1ln\u00ed ekonomiku<\/span><\/h3>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Dopad by byl glob\u00e1ln\u00ed: \u201eSpojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty n\u00e1s tla\u010d\u00ed t\u00edmto sm\u011brem.\u201c Pokud Trump sv\u00e9 hrozby spln\u00ed, glob\u00e1ln\u00ed ekonomika se \u201ezhrout\u00ed\u201c \u2013 a to velmi rychle.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">\u201eBu\u010f se v\u011bci z kopce velmi rychle zhor\u0161\u00ed, nebo se z kopce zhor\u0161\u00ed pomalej\u0161\u00edm tempem. Ale z kopce ur\u010dit\u011b p\u016fjdou,\u201c uzav\u00edr\u00e1 expert. \u201eO tom nen\u00ed pochyb.\u201c<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span dir=\"auto\">\u010c\u00e1st 3: Geopolitick\u00e9 d\u016fsledky, Izrael a bez\u00fat\u011b\u0161n\u00fd z\u00e1v\u011br<\/span><\/h2>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span dir=\"auto\">Izrael mezi strachem a vypo\u010d\u00edtavost\u00ed<\/span><\/h3>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Sou\u010dasn\u00e1 strategie izraelsk\u00e9ho re\u017eimu je dvoj\u00ed: Na jedn\u00e9 stran\u011b t\u011b\u017e\u00ed ze skute\u010dnosti, \u017ee USA vedou v\u00e1lku proti \u00cdr\u00e1nu samy, ale na druh\u00e9 stran\u011b eskalace vytv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed i nov\u00e1 rizika.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">\u201e\u00cdr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed v Hormuzsk\u00e9m pr\u016flivu je pro Izrael velmi \u0161patnou zpr\u00e1vou,\u201c vysv\u011btluje Marandi. \u201e\u00cdr\u00e1n ni\u010d\u00ed v\u0161echny ty vrstvy obrany, kter\u00e9 USA pro Izrael vybudovaly.\u201c Mluv\u00ed o radarov\u00fdch syst\u00e9mech v severn\u00edm Ir\u00e1ku, oblasti Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu a Jord\u00e1nsku, kter\u00e9 m\u011bly Izrael chr\u00e1nit p\u0159ed \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fdmi raketami a drony.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">\u201eJsou pry\u010d. Budou zni\u010deni,\u201c prohla\u0161uje expert jasn\u011b. \u201e\u00cdr\u00e1nci \u010dekaj\u00ed \u2013 soust\u0159ed\u00ed se na obchod v Hormuzsk\u00e9 oblasti, ale tak\u00e9 sleduj\u00ed vnit\u0159n\u00ed situaci v izraelsk\u00e9m re\u017eimu, kter\u00e1 je dost \u0161patn\u00e1.\u201c<\/span><\/p>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span dir=\"auto\">Netanjahuova n\u00e1v\u0161t\u011bva New Yorku<\/span><\/h3>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Ironi\u00ed okam\u017eiku je, \u017ee \u201eIzraelci by m\u011bli n\u00e9st odpov\u011bdnost,\u201c \u0159\u00edk\u00e1 Marandi s odkazem na pl\u00e1novanou n\u00e1v\u0161t\u011bvu Netanjahua v New Yorku. Starosta New Yorku prohl\u00e1sil, \u017ee je ochoten v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e9ho zlo\u010dince zatknout, ale Trump dal jasn\u011b najevo, \u017ee dojde k p\u0159est\u0159elce.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">\u201eNetanjahu bude sv\u011btu p\u0159edn\u00e1\u0161et o terorismu \u2013 i kdy\u017e pr\u00e1v\u011b terorismus umo\u017enil vznik jeho st\u00e1tu,\u201c \u0159ekl Marandi. \u201eZejm\u00e9na proti britsk\u00e9 st\u00e1tn\u00ed spr\u00e1v\u011b a britsk\u00fdm ozbrojen\u00fdm sil\u00e1m, kter\u00e9 se sna\u017eily plnit mand\u00e1t OSN.\u201c<\/span><\/p>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span dir=\"auto\">P\u00e1smo Gazy a ve\u0159ejn\u00e9 m\u00edn\u011bn\u00ed<\/span><\/h3>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Expert zd\u016fraz\u0148uje, \u017ee genocida v Gaze pokra\u010duje. Lid\u00e9 jsou vra\u017ed\u011bni ka\u017ed\u00fd den. \u201eJe\u0161t\u011b v\u010dera up\u00e1lili za\u017eiva rodinu. Ka\u017ed\u00fd den vra\u017ed\u00ed d\u011bti.\u201c<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Lid\u00e9 to vid\u00ed \u2013 i kdy\u017e to z\u00e1padn\u00ed m\u00e9dia neukazuj\u00ed. \u201eKdybyste \u010detli z\u00e1padn\u00ed m\u00e9dia, nem\u011bli byste tu\u0161en\u00ed, \u017ee ka\u017ed\u00fd den masakruj\u00ed Gazu. Pro\u010d? Proto\u017ee je vlastn\u00ed psychopati, proto\u017ee jim chyb\u00ed d\u016fv\u011bryhodnost.\u201c<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Ve\u0159ejn\u00e9 m\u00edn\u011bn\u00ed se st\u00e1le v\u00edce obrac\u00ed proti izraelsk\u00e9mu re\u017eimu a tento proces je nezastaviteln\u00fd. \u201eSn\u00edmky jsou pro Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty katastrof\u00e1ln\u00ed,\u201c \u0159ekl expert.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span dir=\"auto\">Jadern\u00fd paradox<\/span><\/h3>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Dal\u0161\u00ed paradox americk\u00e9 politiky: Trump s\u00e1m, zat\u00edmco \u00cdr\u00e1nu vyhro\u017eoval \u00fatokem na jeho jadern\u00fd program, \u201edes\u00edtkykr\u00e1t\u201c prohl\u00e1sil, \u017ee \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fd jadern\u00fd program byl ji\u017e kompletn\u011b zni\u010den.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">\u201eTe\u010f \u0159\u00edkaj\u00ed, \u017ee je pln\u011b aktivn\u00ed. V\u0161echno je neporu\u0161en\u00e9. Obohacuj\u00ed uran. Co to je? Co je pravda?\u201c pt\u00e1 se expert. \u201eBu\u010f lhali tehdy, nebo l\u017eou te\u010f.\u201c<\/span><\/p>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span dir=\"auto\">Migrace jako d\u016fsledek kolapsu<\/span><\/h3>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Expert varuje p\u0159ed masov\u00fdmi migracemi, jak\u00e9 sv\u011bt je\u0161t\u011b neza\u017eil, pokud se ekonomika zhrout\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">\u201ePokud va\u0161e vl\u00e1dy pomohou srazit glob\u00e1ln\u00ed ekonomiku, uprchnou ne des\u00edtky tis\u00edc, ale statis\u00edce \u2013 mo\u017en\u00e1 miliony \u2013 lid\u00ed,\u201c \u0159ekl expert. \u201eBudeme \u017e\u00edt ve velmi odli\u0161n\u00e9m sv\u011bt\u011b.\u201c<\/span><\/p>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span dir=\"auto\">Odpov\u011bdnost st\u00e1t\u016f Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu<\/span><\/h3>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Kl\u00ed\u010dovou ot\u00e1zkou, kterou Marandi vzn\u00e1\u0161\u00ed, je odpov\u011bdnost st\u00e1t\u016f Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu. \u201eSa\u00fadov\u00e9 se mus\u00ed rozhodnout,\u201c \u0159\u00edk\u00e1. \u201eDovol\u00ed to? Emir\u00e1tci, Kuvaj\u0165an\u00e9? Proto\u017ee \u00cdr\u00e1n to dovol\u00ed.\u201c<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">\u00cdr\u00e1n tuto v\u00e1lku neza\u010dal, prohl\u00e1sil Marandi. \u201e\u00cdr\u00e1n eskalaci nevyprovokoval. \u00cdr\u00e1n podepsal JCPOA. Druh\u00e1 strana ji poru\u0161ila \u2013 s podporou Sa\u00fad\u016f, Kuvajtu a Emir\u00e1t\u016f.\u201c<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">\u00cdr\u00e1n nem\u00e1 v \u00famyslu prov\u00e9st odvetu, ale nedovol\u00ed, aby byla zni\u010dena jeho vlastn\u00ed infrastruktura, zat\u00edmco st\u00e1ty Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu nad\u00e1le podporuj\u00ed sv\u00e9 spojence.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span dir=\"auto\">Ot\u00e1zka existence<\/span><\/h3>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Marandi p\u0159irovn\u00e1v\u00e1 rusk\u00fd postoj: \u201eRusko ned\u00e1vno prohl\u00e1silo: \u201aV\u00edme, \u017ee by to mohlo znamenat konec sv\u011bta. Ale pro n\u00e1s neexistuje sv\u011bt bez Ruska.\u2018\u201c<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">\u00cdr\u00e1n je nyn\u00ed ve stejn\u00e9m du\u0161evn\u00edm rozpolo\u017een\u00ed. \u201ePokud cht\u011bj\u00ed zni\u010dit \u00cdr\u00e1n, pak \u00cdr\u00e1n zni\u010d\u00ed v\u0161echno a v\u0161echny,\u201c citoval host rusk\u00e9ho myslitele.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span dir=\"auto\">Sou\u010dasn\u00e1 vojensk\u00e1 situace<\/span><\/h3>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Marandi popisuje dramatickou zm\u011bnu vojensk\u00e9 situace v posledn\u00edch m\u011bs\u00edc\u00edch: \u201eTo, co dnes pozorujeme, ukazuje mnohem siln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed \u00cdr\u00e1n ne\u017e b\u011bhem 40denn\u00ed v\u00e1lky. \u00cdr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 rakety jsou velmi p\u0159esn\u00e9 \u2013 p\u0159esn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e p\u0159ed t\u0159emi nebo \u010dty\u0159mi m\u011bs\u00edci.\u201c<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">USA ji\u017e opustily n\u011bkolik z\u00e1kladen: z\u00e1kladnu Al-Udeid a z\u00e1kladnu kr\u00e1le Faisala v Jord\u00e1nsku. \u201eV podstat\u011b ukon\u010dily svou p\u0159\u00edtomnost v Persk\u00e9m z\u00e1livu \u2013 s v\u00fdjimkou Kuvajtu a Bahrajnu. Ale tam u\u017e moc nez\u016fstane.\u201c<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">V\u00e1lka se nyn\u00ed vede z dalek\u00e9ho z\u00e1padu \u2013 z Jord\u00e1nska a Izraele.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span dir=\"auto\">Rozhoduj\u00edc\u00ed sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159<\/span><\/h3>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">\u201eSituace je te\u010f jin\u00e1 ne\u017e p\u0159ed t\u0159emi nebo \u010dty\u0159mi m\u011bs\u00edci,\u201c zd\u016fraz\u0148uje Marandi. \u201eDos\u00e1hli jsme bodu zlomu.\u201c<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Jsou mo\u017en\u00e9 dva sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e, ani jeden z nich nen\u00ed dobr\u00fd:<\/span><\/p>\n<ol>\n<li><strong><span dir=\"auto\">Rychl\u00e1 eskalace<\/span><\/strong><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0: Pokud Trump sv\u00e9 hrozby uskute\u010dn\u00ed, \u00cdr\u00e1n zareaguje \u201evelmi rozhodn\u011b\u201c. \u201eSv\u011bt se zm\u011bn\u00ed.\u201c<\/span><\/li>\n<li><strong><span dir=\"auto\">Pomal\u00e9 zhor\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed<\/span><\/strong><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0: I bez \u00fapln\u00e9 eskalace bude glob\u00e1ln\u00ed ekonomika klesat.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">\u201eA\u0165 u\u017e se vyd\u00e1me jakoukoli cestou, p\u016fjde to dol\u016f,\u201c uv\u00e1d\u00ed expert. \u201eAle pokud Trump sv\u00e9 hrozby spln\u00ed, pak to p\u016fjde dol\u016f velmi rychle.\u201c<\/span><\/p>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span dir=\"auto\">Modlitba a varov\u00e1n\u00ed<\/span><\/h3>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">\u201eModl\u00edm se za bezpe\u010dnost v\u0161ech lid\u00ed na cel\u00e9m sv\u011bt\u011b,\u201c uzav\u00edr\u00e1 Marandi. \u201eAle nakonec bude rozhodnut\u00ed u\u010din\u011bno ve Washingtonu \u2013 a oni budou ti, za kter\u00e9 budeme v\u0161ichni n\u00e9st odpov\u011bdnost.\u201c<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">\u00cdr\u00e1nci nyn\u00ed dos\u00e1hli glob\u00e1ln\u00ed ekonomiky \u2013 \u201ebodu zlomu\u201c. Trumpovy hrozby se \u00cdr\u00e1nci setkaj\u00ed s \u201evelk\u00fdm odhodl\u00e1n\u00edm\u201c.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">\u201eDos\u00e1hli jsme toho, o \u010dem \u00cdr\u00e1nci mluv\u00ed u\u017e l\u00e9ta,\u201c \u0159\u00edk\u00e1 Marandi. \u201e\u017d\u00e1dn\u00fd n\u00e1rod nedovol\u00ed, aby byla jeho infrastruktura zni\u010dena, zat\u00edmco zem\u011b, kter\u00e9 mu pom\u00e1haj\u00ed, budou pokra\u010dovat v exportu ropy.\u201c<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Rozhovor kon\u010d\u00ed pochmurnou p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u00ed: \u201ePokud se to stane, bude to konec t\u011bchto zem\u00ed a konec ropn\u00e9ho a plyn\u00e1rensk\u00e9ho pr\u016fmyslu v t\u011bchto zem\u00edch na n\u011bkolik p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edch let \u2013 mo\u017en\u00e1 i mnohem d\u00e9le.\u201c<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span dir=\"auto\">Z\u00e1v\u011br: Co n\u00e1s \u010dek\u00e1<\/span><\/h2>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Rozhovor vykresluje sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 p\u0159ipom\u00ednaj\u00edc\u00ed nejtemn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed p\u0159edpov\u011bdi studen\u00e9 v\u00e1lky: Sv\u011bt je na pokraji eskalace, kter\u00e1 by mohla uvrhnout nejen region, ale celou glob\u00e1ln\u00ed ekonomiku do deprese. Kombinace blok\u00e1dy Hormuzsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu, kolapsu dod\u00e1vek ropy a zni\u010den\u00ed kritick\u00e9 infrastruktury v st\u00e1tech Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu by mohla spustit dominov\u00fd efekt, kter\u00fd by ot\u0159\u00e1sl glob\u00e1ln\u00edm ekonomick\u00fdm \u0159\u00e1dem.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Z\u00e1sadn\u00ed ot\u00e1zkou je, zda jsou USA p\u0159ipraveny \u010delit d\u016fsledk\u016fm sv\u00e9 politiky \u2013 nebo zda se \u010dasem vzpamatuj\u00ed. Expert je skeptick\u00fd: \u201eM\u00e1me co do \u010din\u011bn\u00ed s psychopatem v B\u00edl\u00e9m dom\u011b, obklopen\u00fdm sionistick\u00fdmi agit\u00e1tory, kter\u00fdm nez\u00e1le\u017e\u00ed na USA, Evropanech a u\u017e v\u016fbec ne na zbytku sv\u011bta.\u201c<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Jedna v\u011bc se zd\u00e1 b\u00fdt jasn\u00e1: sv\u011bt se zm\u011bn\u00ed \u2013 ot\u00e1zkou je pouze, jak rychle a jak hluboce.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-1185\" src=\"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/kuryr-podpis.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"84\" height=\"24\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>V exkluzivn\u00edm rozhovoru s britsk\u00fdm novin\u00e1\u0159em Georgem Gallowayem varuje v\u00fdznamn\u00fd politolog a expert na Bl\u00edzk\u00fd&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":111521,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,1052,40],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/111520"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=111520"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/111520\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/111521"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=111520"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=111520"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=111520"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}