{"id":111483,"date":"2026-07-24T00:43:27","date_gmt":"2026-07-23T22:43:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=111483"},"modified":"2026-07-23T20:34:44","modified_gmt":"2026-07-23T18:34:44","slug":"sest-dveri-zadny-vychod-washingtonske-moznosti-v-iranu-nikam-nevedou","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/07\/24\/sest-dveri-zadny-vychod-washingtonske-moznosti-v-iranu-nikam-nevedou\/","title":{"rendered":"\u0160est dve\u0159\u00ed, \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fd v\u00fdchod: Washingtonsk\u00e9 mo\u017enosti v \u00cdr\u00e1nu nikam nevedou"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"fb-root\"><\/div>\n<p><strong>Jak se v \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 geografii mno\u017e\u00ed vojensk\u00e9 mo\u017enosti, ka\u017ed\u00e1 z nich odhaluje m\u00e9n\u011b cestu k v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed ne\u017e hlub\u0161\u00ed vrstvu zapleten\u00ed.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">V t\u011bchto dnech se ve Washingtonu st\u00e1le znovu objevuje stejn\u00fd seznam. Ostrov Charg, Hormuzsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv, t\u0159i sporn\u00e9 ostrovy (Ab\u00fa M\u00fasa a Velk\u00fd a Mal\u00fd Tunb), \u010cabah\u00e1r, Ch\u00fazist\u00e1n a kurdsk\u00e1 fronta. Debata o tom, kter\u00fd z nich lze vynutit, se st\u00e1le to\u010d\u00ed kolem \u2013 r\u00e1mce, kter\u00fd probl\u00e9m zakr\u00fdv\u00e1.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Geografie nep\u0159edstavuje s\u00e9rii v\u00fdchod\u016f. Ka\u017ed\u00fd vstupn\u00ed bod se vrac\u00ed zp\u011bt do stejn\u00e9ho prostoru, \u010d\u00edm\u017e se jak\u00e1koli intervence vtahuje hloub\u011bji do hloubky \u00cdr\u00e1nu, sp\u00ed\u0161e ne\u017e aby se z n\u00ed vyvl\u00e9kla.<\/span><br \/>\n<span dir=\"auto\">V roce 1950 pouze jeden z poradc\u016f b\u00fdval\u00e9ho americk\u00e9ho prezidenta Harryho Trumana nam\u00edtal proti pozemn\u00ed v\u00e1lce v Koreji. Gener\u00e1l Omar Bradley varoval, \u017ee americk\u00e1 arm\u00e1da je pro asijskou pevninu p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 mal\u00e1. N\u00e1sledovaly t\u0159i roky patov\u00e9 situace. O v\u00edce ne\u017e sedm desetilet\u00ed pozd\u011bji vis\u00ed stejn\u00e9 omezen\u00ed nad dal\u0161\u00edm asijsk\u00fdm pob\u0159e\u017e\u00edm, o kter\u00e9m se v politick\u00fdch kruz\u00edch do zna\u010dn\u00e9 m\u00edry ml\u010d\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">8. \u010dervence na\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/thecradle.co\/articles\/us-strategy-and-the-shift-to-nato-30\"><span dir=\"auto\">summitu NATO<\/span><\/a><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0v Anka\u0159e americk\u00fd prezident Donald Trump\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.aljazeera.com\/news\/2026\/7\/8\/trump-says-us-may-take-over-kharg-island-heres-what-you-need-to-know\"><span dir=\"auto\">prohl\u00e1sil<\/span><\/a><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed s \u00cdr\u00e1nem za mrtv\u00e9 a obnovil svou obl\u00edbenou hrozbu: obsazen\u00edm ostrova Charg, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e se chlubil, \u017ee \u201es t\u00edm nemohou nic d\u011blat\u201c. Po dvan\u00e1cti dnech a dev\u00edti\u00a0 po sob\u011b\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnn.com\/2026\/07\/19\/world\/live-news\/iran-war-trump\"><span dir=\"auto\">jdouc\u00edch noc\u00edch<\/span><\/a><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0\u00fader\u016f je Hormuzsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv st\u00e1le uzav\u0159en.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Varov\u00e1n\u00ed nyn\u00ed p\u0159ich\u00e1z\u00ed z vn\u011bj\u0161\u00edch ofici\u00e1ln\u00edch kan\u00e1l\u016f. Douglas Macgregor, plukovn\u00edk ve v\u00fdslu\u017eb\u011b, kter\u00fd velel obrn\u011bn\u00fdm sil\u00e1m na z\u00e1kladn\u011b 73 Easting a pozd\u011bji radil Trumpovi v r\u00e1mci Pentagonu, zopakoval\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/macgregorwarrior.substack.com\/p\/war-with-iran-is-a-failure-of-imagination\"><span dir=\"auto\">bod<\/span><\/a><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0, kter\u00e9mu se Washington vyh\u00fdb\u00e1: na v\u00fdchodn\u00ed polokouli nejsou USA konfigurov\u00e1ny jako pozemn\u00ed mocnost.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Bez mnohem v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed vojensk\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edtomnosti je podle n\u011bj v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed nad \u00cdr\u00e1nem \u201eprakticky nemo\u017en\u00e9\u201c. Od konce \u00fanora se americk\u00e9 kroky ust\u00e1lily v cyklu \u00fatok\u016f na viditeln\u00e9 c\u00edle \u2013 v\u010detn\u011b atent\u00e1tu na nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00edho v\u016fdce \u2013 a \u010dek\u00e1n\u00ed na strategickou p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitost, kter\u00e1 se nikdy zcela neobjev\u00ed. Uzav\u0159en\u00ed pr\u016flivu se ujalo.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><strong><span dir=\"auto\">Mapa, kter\u00e1 vede dovnit\u0159<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Kdy\u017e\u00a0 v b\u0159eznu\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/foreignpolicy.com\/2026\/03\/31\/scenarios-ground-war-iran-trump-israel-kharg-hormuz-oil\/\"><i><span dir=\"auto\">agentura Foreign Policy<\/span><\/i><\/a><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0zkoumala mo\u017enosti USA, dosp\u011bla k z\u00e1v\u011bru, \u017ee se nejedn\u00e1 o \u201estrategii v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed, ale o mapu eskalace\u201c.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Americk\u00e9 n\u00e1mo\u0159nictvo se m\u016f\u017ee dostat k \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9mu pob\u0159e\u017e\u00ed, kter\u00e9 se t\u00e1hne zhruba 1 500 kilometr\u016f pod\u00e9l Persk\u00e9ho a Om\u00e1nsk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu. Udr\u017een\u00ed pozic v\u0161ak p\u0159edstavuje jin\u00fd druh v\u00fdzvy. Ka\u017ed\u00e1 z mo\u017enost\u00ed funguje m\u00e9n\u011b jako v\u00fdchod ne\u017e jako hlub\u0161\u00ed vstupn\u00ed bod.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><strong><span dir=\"auto\">Ostrov Kharg: C\u00edl bez strategick\u00e9ho \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Dne 11. \u010dervna se Trump\u00a0 na Truth Social\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.militarytimes.com\/news\/pentagon-congress\/2026\/06\/11\/trump-vows-to-seize-irans-kharg-island\/\"><span dir=\"auto\">zav\u00e1zal<\/span><\/a><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0k dobyt\u00ed \u201eostrova Kharg a dal\u0161\u00edch bod\u016f ropn\u00e9 infrastruktury\u201c.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Ostrov, kter\u00fd le\u017e\u00ed asi 25 kilometr\u016f od pob\u0159e\u017e\u00ed a zhruba 480 kilometr\u016f od Hormuzsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu, odbavuje t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 90 procent \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9ho exportu ropy. Dobyt\u00ed Chargu by k obnoven\u00ed dopravy p\u0159es pr\u016fliv jen m\u00e1lo p\u0159isp\u011blo.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Caitlin Talmadgeov\u00e1, badatelka z MIT, popsala tento koncept pro\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.npr.org\/2026\/03\/26\/nx-s1-5750423\/analysts-say-potential-us-operation-to-seize-irans-kharg-island-would-be-risky\"><span dir=\"auto\">NPR<\/span><\/a><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0jako \u201evojenskou misi hledaj\u00edc\u00ed strategick\u00e9 zd\u016fvodn\u011bn\u00ed\u201c. \u00dasil\u00ed o z\u00e1kaz se ji\u017e stup\u0148ovalo. Dne 15. \u010dervence americk\u00e9 \u00dast\u0159edn\u00ed velen\u00ed (CENTCOM) ozn\u00e1milo\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.npr.org\/2026\/07\/15\/nx-s1-5894582\/us-iran-updates\"><span dir=\"auto\">zne\u0161kodn\u011bn\u00ed<\/span><\/a><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0tankeru bl\u00ed\u017e\u00edc\u00edho se k ostrovu.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Jak\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><span dir=\"auto\">poznamenal\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/thecradle.co\/articles-id\/36795\"><i><span dir=\"auto\">The Cradle , jak\u00e9koli vylod\u011bn\u00ed riskuje roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed za hranice sv\u00e9ho p\u016fvodn\u00edho c\u00edle, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e kontrola nad za\u0159\u00edzen\u00edm pouze p\u0159esune boj nap\u0159\u00ed\u010d cel\u00fdm prostorem operace.<\/span><\/i><\/a><\/p>\n<h3><strong><span dir=\"auto\">Hormuzsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv: Tlak bez kontroly<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Tato fronta \u010del\u00ed trval\u00e9mu tlaku. Od poloviny \u010dervence americk\u00e9 \u00fadery \u00fadajn\u011b zas\u00e1hly\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnn.com\/2026\/07\/12\/world\/live-news\/iran-war-trump\"><span dir=\"auto\">des\u00edtky m\u00edst<\/span><\/a><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0v r\u00e1mci jednodenn\u00edch operac\u00ed. \u00cdr\u00e1nsk\u00e1 arm\u00e1da tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee vy\u0159adila\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnn.com\/2026\/07\/13\/world\/live-news\/iran-war-trump\"><span dir=\"auto\">z provozu<\/span><\/a><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0dva supertankery, Spojen\u00e9 arabsk\u00e9 emir\u00e1ty tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee rakety zas\u00e1hly dva jejich vlastn\u00ed a Brent zaznamenal nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed jednodenn\u00ed n\u00e1r\u016fst za \u0161est let.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Trump v b\u0159eznu p\u0159ipustil, \u017ee \u201euva\u017euje o p\u0159evzet\u00ed\u201c pr\u016flivu, a z\u00e1rove\u0148\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.globalsecurity.org\/military\/ops\/epic-excursion.htm\"><span dir=\"auto\">uznal<\/span><\/a><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0, \u017ee 150 mobiln\u00edch protilodn\u00edch odpalovac\u00edch za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed p\u0159e\u017eilo t\u00fddny bombardov\u00e1n\u00ed. Jejich potla\u010den\u00ed znamen\u00e1 obsazen\u00ed pob\u0159e\u017e\u00ed.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Bandar Abbas, m\u011bsto s bl\u00ed\u017e\u00edc\u00edm se 600 000 obyvateli, je oporou tohoto pob\u0159e\u017e\u00ed. Je br\u00e1n\u011bno\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.armyrecognition.com\/news\/army-news\/2026\/iran-builds-layered-missile-and-mine-shield-against-u-s-carriers-in-strait-of-hormuz\"><span dir=\"auto\">vrstevnat\u00fdmi syst\u00e9my<\/span><\/a><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0, v\u010detn\u011b protilodn\u00edch raket Khalij Fars a rozs\u00e1hl\u00fdch n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00edch kapacit pro odstra\u0148ov\u00e1n\u00ed min. Anga\u017em\u00e1 se zde p\u0159esouv\u00e1 z n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00edho tlaku na m\u011bstskou konfrontaci.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><strong><span dir=\"auto\">Ab\u00fa M\u00fasa a Tunbov\u00e9: Sporn\u00e9 \u00fazem\u00ed, omezen\u00fd zisk<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Americk\u00e9 pl\u00e1novac\u00ed diskuse\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.rferl.org\/a\/iran-persian-gulf-islands-us-seizure\/33718108.html\"><span dir=\"auto\">\u00fadajn\u011b<\/span><\/a><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0zahrnovaly mo\u017enosti t\u00fdkaj\u00edc\u00ed se Ab\u00fa M\u00fasy a Velk\u00e9ho a Mal\u00e9ho Tunbu, t\u0159\u00ed ostrov\u016f pod \u00edr\u00e1nskou kontrolou, ale n\u00e1rokovan\u00fdch SAE od roku 1971. Jejich um\u00edst\u011bn\u00ed tvo\u0159\u00ed sou\u010d\u00e1st \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9ho obrann\u00e9ho oblouku p\u0159es Hormuzsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">B\u00fdval\u00fd \u0161\u00e9f rozv\u011bdky Pacifick\u00e9ho velitelstv\u00ed Carl Schuster\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnn.com\/2026\/03\/28\/middleeast\/iran-war-strait-hormuz-arch-defense-intl-hnk-dst-ml\"><span dir=\"auto\">odhaduje, \u017ee<\/span><\/a><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0k jejich udr\u017een\u00ed bude pot\u0159eba a\u017e 2 000 voj\u00e1k\u016f. Pro Macgregora\u00a0 se\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/singjupost.com\/douglas-macgregor-iran-war-destroyed-nato-gulf-states-israel-u-s-empire-transcript\/\"><span dir=\"auto\">bez kontroly<\/span><\/a><span dir=\"auto\"> nad pevninsk\u00fdm pob\u0159e\u017e\u00edm men\u0161\u00ed ostrovy rychle st\u00e1vaj\u00ed neudr\u017eiteln\u00fdmi.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">\u00cdr\u00e1n by mohl povolit vylod\u011bn\u00ed a pot\u00e9 zah\u00e1jit trvalou palbu na ostrovy, \u010d\u00edm\u017e by od\u0159\u00edzl exponovanou pozici od pevniny. \u00cdr\u00e1nsk\u00e1 m\u00e9dia\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnn.com\/2026\/07\/15\/world\/live-news\/iran-war-trump\"><span dir=\"auto\">informuj\u00ed<\/span><\/a><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0o roz\u0161i\u0159uj\u00edc\u00edm se bombardovac\u00edm oblouku na bl\u00edzk\u00e9 ostrovy, v\u010detn\u011b Ke\u0161mu, Ki\u0161e, Hengamu a Ab\u00fa M\u00fasy.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Ot\u00e1zka se pak p\u0159esouv\u00e1 k tomu, komu to slou\u017e\u00ed. Ab\u00fa Zab\u00ed\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/responsiblestatecraft.org\/strait-of-hormuz-islands\/\"><span dir=\"auto\">m\u016f\u017ee t\u011b\u017eit<\/span><\/a><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0z kroku, kter\u00fd nem\u016f\u017ee prov\u00e9st samo, a zat\u00e1hnout americk\u00e9 s\u00edly do dlouhodob\u00e9ho \u00fazemn\u00edho sporu.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><strong><span dir=\"auto\">Chabahar: Vzd\u00e1lenost jako omezen\u00ed<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">P\u0159\u00edstav \u010cabah\u00e1r le\u017e\u00ed na jihov\u00fdchodn\u00edm pob\u0159e\u017e\u00ed \u00cdr\u00e1nu, mimo bezprost\u0159edn\u00ed oblast Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu. Jeho vzd\u00e1lenost od centr\u00e1ln\u00ed infrastruktury omezuje jeho bezprost\u0159edn\u00ed strategick\u00fd dopad. Jak\u00e1koli operace v tomto p\u0159\u00edstavu by vy\u017eadovala trval\u00fd postup do vnitrozem\u00ed, aby udr\u017eela v\u00e1hu.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">P\u0159\u00edstav je tak\u00e9 sou\u010d\u00e1st\u00ed mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edch z\u00e1vazk\u016f. Jeho hlavn\u00ed termin\u00e1l byl\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/moderndiplomacy.eu\/2026\/05\/29\/indias-chabahar-port-crisis-how-us-sanctions-and-the-iran-war-are-testing-new-delhis-strategic-autonomy\/\"><span dir=\"auto\">vybudov\u00e1n<\/span><\/a><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0s indick\u00fdmi investicemi a \u0159\u00edzen\u00edm prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm spole\u010dnosti India Ports Global.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.businesstoday.in\/world\/story\/after-trumps-iran-ceasefire-over-claim-us-strikes-hit-india-backed-chabahar-port-541882-2026-07-09\"><span dir=\"auto\">St\u00e1vky<\/span><\/a><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0v p\u0159\u00edstavn\u00edm m\u011bst\u011b ji\u017e vyvolaly obavy z eskalace za hranicemi bezprost\u0159edn\u00ed americko-\u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 osy. Geografick\u00e1 poloha v tomto p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b natahuje logistiku, ani\u017e by \u0159e\u0161ila kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e1 omezen\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><strong><span dir=\"auto\">Ch\u00fazist\u00e1n: Precedent, kter\u00fd plat\u00ed<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Ch\u00fazist\u00e1n nab\u00edz\u00ed nejp\u0159\u00edm\u011bj\u0161\u00ed pozemn\u00ed koridor do energetick\u00e9ho srdce \u00cdr\u00e1nu. Je tak\u00e9 historicky nejv\u00edce prov\u011b\u0159en\u00fd. Ir\u00e1ck\u00e1\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/foreignpolicy.com\/2026\/03\/31\/scenarios-ground-war-iran-trump-israel-kharg-hormuz-oil\/\"><span dir=\"auto\">invaze v roce 1980<\/span><\/a><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0sledovala podobnou osu, dos\u00e1hla Chorram\u0161\u00e1hru, ne\u017e se zastavila.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Ter\u00e9n je i nad\u00e1le siln\u011b sporn\u00fd a politicky nabit\u00fd. Zpr\u00e1vy nazna\u010duj\u00ed, \u017ee spojeneck\u00e9 ir\u00e1ck\u00e9 jednotky lidov\u00e9 mobilizace (PMU) se\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.aljazeera.com\/news\/2026\/3\/30\/loyalty-campaign-iraqi-armed-groups-in-iran-as-us-talks-of-ground\"><span dir=\"auto\">um\u00edstily<\/span><\/a><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0pod\u00e9l kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fdch p\u0159echod\u016f, jako je \u0160alam\u010dha, a\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/themedialine.org\/top-stories\/iraqi-pmf-presence-in-iran-raises-alarm-over-crackdown-potential-us-ground-war\/\"><span dir=\"auto\">roz\u0161i\u0159uj\u00ed tak<\/span><\/a><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0hloubku obrany. Jak\u00fdkoli postup by narazil jak na geografick\u00e9 podm\u00ednky, tak na precedenty. P\u0159edchoz\u00ed pokusy o prosazen\u00ed t\u00e9to trasy nep\u0159inesly rozhoduj\u00edc\u00ed v\u00fdsledky.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><strong><span dir=\"auto\">Kurdsk\u00e1 fronta: P\u00e1ka, kter\u00e1 se obrac\u00ed<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Posledn\u00ed mo\u017enost\u00ed je roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed tlaku prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm kurdsk\u00fdch frakc\u00ed pod\u00e9l z\u00e1padn\u00ed hranice \u00cdr\u00e1nu. Izraelsk\u00fd televizn\u00ed kan\u00e1l Channel 12\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.aljazeera.com\/news\/2026\/3\/30\/loyalty-campaign-iraqi-armed-groups-in-iran-as-us-talks-of-ground\"><span dir=\"auto\">informoval<\/span><\/a><span dir=\"auto\"> , \u017ee \u00faniky informac\u00ed, tlak spojenc\u016f a kurdsk\u00e9 po\u017eadavky na z\u00e1ruky pl\u00e1n nakonec zhatily.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Kurdsk\u00e1 fronta d\u00e1 Teher\u00e1nu v\u00e1lku, kterou politicky vyhr\u00e1v\u00e1 \u2013 \u00fazemn\u00ed obranu, kter\u00e1 zemi sjednocuje. Co se jev\u00ed jako prost\u0159edek\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/thecradle.co\/articles\/under-fire-not-divided-why-irans-ethnic-front-has-not-cracked\"><span dir=\"auto\">fragmentace<\/span><\/a><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0, m\u016f\u017ee ve skute\u010dnosti\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/thecradle.co\/articles\/anticipating-war-voices-from-iranian-society\"><span dir=\"auto\">pos\u00edlit soudr\u017enost<\/span><\/a><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><strong><span dir=\"auto\">N\u00e1kladov\u00e1 k\u0159ivka<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">P\u0159ed dubnov\u00fdm p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00edm \u00cdr\u00e1n a jeho spojenci podle Washingtonsk\u00e9ho institutu\u00a0\u00a0vypustili do vzduchu p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 4 400 jednosm\u011brn\u00fdch dron\u016f \u2013 zhruba\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtoninstitute.org\/policy-analysis\/irans-drone-strategy-part-1-wartime-performance-and-adaptations\"><span dir=\"auto\">120 denn\u011b . V\u00edce ne\u017e 90 procent z nich bylo zachyceno, a to je pr\u00e1v\u011b ten probl\u00e9m.<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.foxnews.com\/world\/more-than-90-iranian-missiles-intercepted-dangerous-imbalance-emerging\"><span dir=\"auto\">Zpr\u00e1va<\/span><\/a><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0JINSA\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><span dir=\"auto\">uv\u00e1d\u00ed, \u017ee nejlevn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 syst\u00e9my vy\u0159azuj\u00ed z provozu nejdra\u017e\u0161\u00ed st\u00edhac\u00ed rakety. Jak Macgregor\u00a0 v \u00fanoru\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/singjupost.com\/douglas-macgregor-us-iran-diplomacy-fail-transcript\/\"><span dir=\"auto\">uvedl<\/span><\/a><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0: \u201eJsou na sou\u0161i, mohou rychle dopl\u0148ovat z\u00e1soby, mohou pokra\u010dovat ve v\u00fdrob\u011b.\u201c Jedna strana bojuje na sv\u00e9m vlastn\u00edm \u00fazem\u00ed a dopl\u0148uje z\u00e1soby lok\u00e1ln\u011b, zat\u00edmco druh\u00e1 p\u0159esouv\u00e1 v\u0161e p\u0159es oce\u00e1n.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Po\u010det ob\u011bt\u00ed, a\u010dkoli\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/thehill.com\/policy\/international\/5919671-donald-trump-us-iran-strikes-kharg-island\/\"><span dir=\"auto\">omezen\u00fd<\/span><\/a><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0v porovn\u00e1n\u00ed s rozs\u00e1hl\u00fdm konfliktem, se za\u010dal zaznamen\u00e1vat na v\u00edce m\u00edstech, v\u010detn\u011b Jord\u00e1nska a Ir\u00e1ku, a to krom\u011b \u00fatok\u016f na region\u00e1ln\u00edch z\u00e1kladn\u00e1ch. Opera\u010dn\u00ed slovn\u00edk se soub\u011b\u017en\u011b posunul od omezen\u00fdch \u00fader\u016f k rozs\u00e1hl\u00fdm kampan\u00edm, co\u017e odr\u00e1\u017e\u00ed roz\u0161i\u0159uj\u00edc\u00ed se rozsah bez definovan\u00e9ho koncov\u00e9ho bodu.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><strong><span dir=\"auto\">\u017d\u00e1dn\u00fd v\u00fdchod, jen hlub\u0161\u00ed vstup<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">\u00danikov\u00e1 hra b\u011b\u017e\u00ed na pln\u00e9 obr\u00e1tky. Tato konfrontace se t\u00e1hne u\u017e m\u011bs\u00edce. Ka\u017ed\u00e1 mo\u017enost vede d\u00e1le do stejn\u00e9ho vzorce, s v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed expozic\u00ed, vy\u0161\u0161\u00edmi n\u00e1roky a men\u0161\u00ed jasnost\u00ed ohledn\u011b toho, jak to skon\u010d\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Vn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed hranici t\u00e9to rovnice definuj\u00ed dv\u011b podm\u00ednky. Jednou je rozsah s\u00edly pot\u0159ebn\u00e9 k zaveden\u00ed kontroly nad \u00fazem\u00edm \u00cdr\u00e1nu. Druhou je politick\u00fd pr\u00e1h pro ukon\u010den\u00ed eskalace. Ani jedna z nich se nezd\u00e1 b\u00fdt v bezprost\u0159edn\u00edm dosahu.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Nezb\u00fdv\u00e1 jen sada dve\u0159\u00ed vedouc\u00edch ven, ale syst\u00e9m, kter\u00fd jak\u00fdkoli z\u00e1sah vtahuje d\u00e1le dovnit\u0159, kde ka\u017ed\u00fd krok sp\u00ed\u0161e zu\u017euje ne\u017e roz\u0161i\u0159uje dostupn\u00e9 mo\u017enosti.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/thecradle.co\/articles\/six-doors-no-exit-washingtons-iran-options-lead-nowhere\"><span dir=\"auto\">Anis Raiss<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/the-cradle-media.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/Anis-2.png\" width=\"169\" height=\"169\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Jak se v \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 geografii mno\u017e\u00ed vojensk\u00e9 mo\u017enosti, ka\u017ed\u00e1 z nich odhaluje m\u00e9n\u011b cestu k&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":111484,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,38,37,40],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/111483"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=111483"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/111483\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/111484"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=111483"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=111483"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=111483"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}