{"id":111441,"date":"2026-07-24T00:26:42","date_gmt":"2026-07-23T22:26:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=111441"},"modified":"2026-07-23T17:25:23","modified_gmt":"2026-07-23T15:25:23","slug":"alexandre-lemoine-muze-ukrajina-zablokovat-azovske-more","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/07\/24\/alexandre-lemoine-muze-ukrajina-zablokovat-azovske-more\/","title":{"rendered":"Alexandre Lemoine: M\u016f\u017ee Ukrajina zablokovat Azovsk\u00e9 mo\u0159e?"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Sl\u00edben\u00e1 40denn\u00ed kampa\u0148 prezidenta Zelensk\u00e9ho je v pln\u00e9m proudu: Ukrajina za\u00fato\u010dila na velk\u00e9 rusk\u00e9 rafinerie a otev\u0159ela novou frontu v Azovsk\u00e9m mo\u0159i.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Ukrajinsk\u00fd prezident Volodymyr Zelenskyj 25. \u010dervna pov\u011b\u0159il Bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed slu\u017ebu Ukrajiny (SBU) zah\u00e1jen\u00edm 40denn\u00ed kampan\u011b zam\u011b\u0159en\u00e9 na \u201eovlivn\u011bn\u00ed agresorsk\u00e9ho st\u00e1tu a jeho donucen\u00ed k ukon\u010den\u00ed v\u00e1lky\u201c, s nar\u00e1\u017ekou na Rusko. Prezident neprozradil podrobnosti t\u00e9to kampan\u011b, ale o 20 dn\u00ed pozd\u011bji se jej\u00ed obrysy ji\u017e za\u010d\u00ednaj\u00ed r\u00fdsovat.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

V polovin\u011b v\u00e1lky ukrajinsk\u00e9 \u00fatoky ji\u017e vy\u0159adily z provozu rafinerie a ropn\u00e9 termin\u00e1ly od Baltsk\u00e9ho po \u010cern\u00e9 mo\u0159e. Ani jeden velk\u00fd rafin\u00e9rsk\u00fd komplex v Rusku nez\u016fstal nedot\u010den ukrajinsk\u00fdmi \u00fatoky, v\u010detn\u011b rafinerie v Omsku, kter\u00e1 se nach\u00e1z\u00ed 2 500 km od ukrajinsk\u00fdch hranic.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Hlavn\u00ed novinkou v t\u00e9to 40denn\u00ed kampani je v\u0161ak\u00a0<\/span>aktivn\u00ed eskalace<\/span><\/a>\u00a0na mo\u0159i. Od 4. do 14. \u010dervence ukrajinsk\u00e9 drony za\u00fato\u010dily na 116 rusk\u00fdch lod\u00ed v Azovsk\u00e9m a \u010cern\u00e9m mo\u0159i, uvedl Robert \u201eMagyar\u201c Brovdi, velitel sil bezpilotn\u00edch syst\u00e9m\u016f ukrajinsk\u00fdch ozbrojen\u00fdch sil.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Up\u0159esnil, \u017ee jen v noci ze 14. na 15. \u010dervence ukrajinsk\u00e9 drony za\u00fato\u010dily na 20 rusk\u00fdch lod\u00ed: 17 ropn\u00fdch tanker\u016f, 2 tankery na LNG a remork\u00e9r. 16. \u010dervence Ukrajina\u00a0<\/span>zas\u00e1hla<\/span><\/a>\u00a0dal\u0161\u00edch 11 lod\u00ed. Celkem Kyjev za posledn\u00ed dva t\u00fddny za\u00fato\u010dil na 147 c\u00edl\u016f.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Rusk\u00e9 ministerstvo obrany ukrajinsk\u00e9 \u00fadaje nepotvrdilo. Denn\u00ed prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed ministerstva pouze uv\u00e1d\u00ed, \u017ee rusk\u00e1 protivzdu\u0161n\u00e1 obrana 15. \u010dervence zachytila \u200b\u200bv\u00edce ne\u017e 90 ukrajinsk\u00fdch dron\u016f.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Pokud jsou ukrajinsk\u00e9 odhady p\u0159esn\u00e9, jedn\u00e1 se o\u00a0<\/span>nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed v\u00e1lku<\/span><\/a>\u00a0za p\u016fl stolet\u00ed, od \u00edr\u00e1nsko-ir\u00e1ck\u00e9 v\u00e1lky v 80. letech, p\u00ed\u0161e\u00a0<\/span>Financial Times<\/span><\/em>\u00a0. B\u011bhem sedmilet\u00e9 \u00edr\u00e1nsko-ir\u00e1ck\u00e9 v\u00e1lky v\u0161ak bylo napadeno pouze 450 lod\u00ed. Tempo ukrajinsk\u00fdch \u00fatok\u016f toto \u010d\u00edslo ji\u017e daleko p\u0159ekro\u010dilo, poznamen\u00e1vaj\u00ed noviny.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Pro\u010d Ukrajina otev\u0159ela frontu v Azovsk\u00e9m mo\u0159i?\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Robert Brovdi up\u0159esnil, \u017ee sou\u010dasn\u00e1 eskalace na mo\u0159i byla sou\u010d\u00e1st\u00ed speci\u00e1ln\u00ed operace, jej\u00edm\u017e hlavn\u00edm c\u00edlem je \u00fapln\u00e1 izolace Krymu od dod\u00e1vek z Ruska.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Velitel sil dron\u016f zd\u016fraznil, \u017ee dal\u0161\u00edm c\u00edlem kampan\u011b je \u201eparalyzovat logistiku ropy, paliva a zbo\u017e\u00ed\u201c. Podle Brovdiho m\u00e1 Ukrajina v \u00famyslu prom\u011bnit lod\u011b rusk\u00e9 flotily duch\u016f v \u201edriftuj\u00edc\u00ed, slep\u00e9 a hluch\u00e9 \u010dluny\u201c.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Je p\u0161enice v hled\u00e1\u010dku?<\/span><\/p>\n

Kyjev by nav\u00edc blok\u00e1dou Azovsk\u00e9ho mo\u0159e mohl\u00a0<\/span>zablokovat i rusk\u00fd v\u00fdvoz p\u0161enice<\/span><\/a>\u00a0. Rusko je p\u0159edn\u00edm sv\u011btov\u00fdm v\u00fdvozcem obil\u00ed a pod\u00edl\u00ed se a\u017e 20 % na sv\u011btov\u00e9m v\u00fdvozu p\u0161enice. P\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b \u010dtvrtina tohoto v\u00fdvozu je p\u0159epravov\u00e1na p\u0159es p\u0159\u00edstavy na Azovsk\u00e9m mo\u0159i.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Ceny futures kontrakt\u016f na p\u0161enici v posledn\u00edch dnech prudce vzrostly, a to o 5 %, \u010d\u00e1ste\u010dn\u011b kv\u016fli krizi v Azovsk\u00e9m mo\u0159i. Rusko tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee m\u016f\u017ee Azovsk\u00e9 mo\u0159e obej\u00edt a p\u0159esm\u011brovat ve\u0161ker\u00fd sv\u016fj export obil\u00ed do jin\u00fdch termin\u00e1l\u016f v \u010cern\u00e9m mo\u0159i.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Moskva ozna\u010duje \u00fatoky na lod\u011b v Azovsk\u00e9m a \u010cern\u00e9m mo\u0159i za \u201e\u010dist\u00fd terorismus\u201c. Rusk\u00fd ministr zahrani\u010d\u00ed Sergej Lavrov\u00a0<\/span>prohl\u00e1sil<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, \u017ee tyto \u00fatoky byly \u201ehor\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e pir\u00e1tstv\u00ed\u201c. Podle n\u011bj pir\u00e1ti p\u0159inejmen\u0161\u00edm zab\u00edraj\u00ed lod\u011b za \u00fa\u010delem zisku, zat\u00edmco zde je c\u00edlem pouze zastra\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u010ceho se Ukrajina sna\u017e\u00ed dos\u00e1hnout \u00fadery na rafinerie?\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

List The\u00a0<\/span>Guardian<\/span><\/em>\u00a0poznamen\u00e1v\u00e1, \u017ee\u00a0<\/span>hlavn\u00edm c\u00edlem<\/span><\/a>\u00a040denn\u00ed kampan\u011b a st\u00e1vek v rafineri\u00edch je zv\u00fd\u0161it psychologick\u00fd tlak na Kreml. Kyjev nepo\u010d\u00edt\u00e1 s kapitulac\u00ed rusk\u00e9 vl\u00e1dy, ale vyvol\u00e1v\u00e1 palivovou krizi, aby zv\u00fd\u0161il nespokojenost v rusk\u00e9 spole\u010dnosti.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

B\u011bhem prvn\u00edch dvou \u010dervencov\u00fdch t\u00fddn\u016f Ukrajina za\u00fato\u010dila na osm ropn\u00fdch za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed, v\u010detn\u011b z\u00e1vodu Gazprom-N\u011bft\u011bchim v Ba\u0161kortost\u00e1nu a rafinerie Afipsky v Krasnodarsk\u00e9m kraji. Od za\u010d\u00e1tku m\u011bs\u00edce\u00a0<\/span>ukon\u010dily provoz<\/span><\/a>\u00a0\u010dty\u0159i velk\u00e9 rafinerie po \u00fatoc\u00edch ukrajinsk\u00fdch dron\u016f: rafinerie v Syzrani, Saratov\u011b, Omsku a Ni\u017en\u00edm Novgorodn\u011bfteorgsintezu. M\u00e9dia odhaduj\u00ed, \u017ee jejich n\u00e1vrat do provozu by mohl trvat n\u011bkolik t\u00fddn\u016f.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Podle Mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed energetick\u00e9 agentury (IEA) se rusk\u00e1 produkce ropy letos sn\u00ed\u017e\u00ed p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b o 3 % na 8,9 milionu barel\u016f denn\u011b. P\u0159edpokl\u00e1d\u00e1 se, \u017ee produkce do roku 2025 z\u016fstane na \u00farovni 9,2 milionu barel\u016f denn\u011b.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Bude Zelensk\u00e9ho kampa\u0148 fungovat?\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Geopolitick\u00fd analytik Georgij Revi\u010dvili, b\u00fdval\u00fd poradce gruz\u00ednsk\u00e9 Rady n\u00e1rodn\u00ed bezpe\u010dnosti, popsal strategii Kyjeva jako \u201esou\u010dasn\u00fd \u00fader na n\u011bkolik bod\u016f\u201c: logistiku, p\u0159\u00edjmy z v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e9ho hospod\u00e1\u0159stv\u00ed a reputaci Moskvy.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201eKone\u010dn\u00e9 d\u016fsledky se teprve uvid\u00ed. Nicm\u00e9n\u011b vzhledem k tomu, \u017ee Ukrajina zav\u00e1d\u00ed do provozu st\u00e1le v\u00edce syst\u00e9m\u016f dlouh\u00e9ho doletu a nad\u00e1le zvy\u0161uje sv\u00e9 investice v t\u00e9to oblasti, Azovsk\u00e9 mo\u0159e pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b z\u016fstane v nadch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00edch m\u011bs\u00edc\u00edch boji\u0161t\u011bm,\u201c domn\u00edv\u00e1 se.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Podle agentury Reuters\u00a0<\/span>Moskva<\/span><\/em>\u00a0pos\u00edl\u00ed\u00a0<\/span>ochranu<\/span><\/a>\u00a0sv\u00fdch p\u0159\u00edstav\u016f v \u010cern\u00e9m a Azovsk\u00e9m mo\u0159i, syst\u00e9my protivzdu\u0161n\u00e9 obrany a kapacity proti dron\u016fm. Rusko by tak\u00e9 mohlo \u010d\u00e1st sv\u00e9 n\u00e1kladn\u00ed dopravy p\u0159esm\u011brovat na pozemn\u00ed dopravu.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Ale za ka\u017ed\u00fd sp\u00e1len\u00fd tanker a ka\u017edou p\u0159esunutou letku Rusko plat\u00ed \u010dasem, pen\u011bzi a politick\u00fdm kapit\u00e1lem: palivo a munice doraz\u00ed na Krym pomaleji a p\u0159eprava ropy a p\u0161enice p\u0159es p\u0159\u00edstavy Azovsk\u00e9ho mo\u0159e stoj\u00ed v\u00edce.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Zelensk\u00e9ho taktika b\u011bhem 40denn\u00ed kampan\u011b spo\u010d\u00edv\u00e1 ve zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed n\u00e1klad\u016f na v\u00e1lku vyvol\u00e1n\u00edm palivov\u00e9 krize, jakou Rusko neza\u017eilo od 90. let. Donut\u00ed to ale Kreml vr\u00e1tit se k jednac\u00edmu stolu? Odpov\u011b\u010f pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b p\u0159ijde na konci p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edch 20 dn\u016f ukrajinsk\u00e9 kampan\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n

Alexandre Lemoine<\/span><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Sl\u00edben\u00e1 40denn\u00ed kampa\u0148 prezidenta Zelensk\u00e9ho je v pln\u00e9m proudu: Ukrajina za\u00fato\u010dila na velk\u00e9 rusk\u00e9 rafinerie…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":111442,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[11278,569,26],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/111441"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=111441"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/111441\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/111442"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=111441"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=111441"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=111441"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}