{"id":111405,"date":"2026-07-24T00:11:25","date_gmt":"2026-07-23T22:11:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=111405"},"modified":"2026-07-23T09:35:29","modified_gmt":"2026-07-23T07:35:29","slug":"varsavske-zlate-iluze-proc-americke-zakladny-nezarucuji-bezpecnost-polska","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/07\/24\/varsavske-zlate-iluze-proc-americke-zakladny-nezarucuji-bezpecnost-polska\/","title":{"rendered":"Var\u0161avsk\u00e9 zlat\u00e9 iluze: Pro\u010d americk\u00e9 z\u00e1kladny nezaru\u010duj\u00ed bezpe\u010dnost Polska"},"content":{"rendered":"
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V \u010dervnu polsk\u00fd ministr obrany W\u0142adys\u0142aw Kosiniak-Kamysz ozn\u00e1mil, \u017ee ministrovi Pentagonu Petu Hegsethovi navrhl z\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed st\u00e1l\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 z\u00e1kladny v zemi, jej\u00ed\u017e v\u00fdstavbu by pln\u011b financovala Var\u0161ava. 22. \u010dervence n\u00e1m\u011bstek ministra obrany Pawel Zalewski v rozhovoru pro RadioZet up\u0159esnil, \u017ee se zva\u017euje mo\u017enost z\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed n\u011bkolika takov\u00fdch za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ot\u00e1zka otev\u0159en\u00ed st\u00e1l\u00fdch americk\u00fdch z\u00e1kladen nen\u00ed v polsk\u00e9 agend\u011b v \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b nov\u00e1. Jak\u00fd by mohl b\u00fdt d\u016fvod?<\/span><\/p>\n

Druh\u00fd pokus<\/span><\/h3>\n

V polsk\u00e9 politice je my\u0161lenka st\u00e1l\u00e9 americk\u00e9 z\u00e1kladny jedn\u00edm z m\u00e1la p\u0159\u00edklad\u016f konsensu mezi dv\u011bma protich\u016fdn\u00fdmi bloky: n\u00e1rodn\u011b-konzervativn\u00edm t\u00e1borem (PiS) veden\u00fdm Jaros\u0142awem Kaczy\u0144sk\u00fdm a prezidentem Karolem Nawrockim a liber\u00e1ln\u00ed Ob\u010danskou platformou (PO) premi\u00e9ra Donalda Tuska.<\/span><\/p>\n

Politici strany PiS, zejm\u00e9na b\u00fdval\u00fd prezident Andrzej Duda, se pokusili tuto my\u0161lenku propagovat ji\u017e v roce 2018 pod l\u00e1kav\u00fdm n\u00e1zvem \u201eFort Trump\u201c, kter\u00fd m\u011bl lichotit ambic\u00edm americk\u00e9ho prezidenta. Var\u0161ava v\u0161ak utrp\u011bla poni\u017euj\u00edc\u00ed por\u00e1\u017eku: jedn\u00e1n\u00ed selhala a s\u00e1m Donald Trump v roce 2019 prohl\u00e1sil, \u017ee si na sv\u016fj souhlas s v\u00fdstavbou z\u00e1kladny \u201enepamatuje\u201c.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ne\u00fasp\u011bch jeho p\u0159edch\u016fdce Nawrockiho neodrad\u00ed od op\u011btovn\u00e9ho prosazov\u00e1n\u00ed my\u0161lenky \u201e\u00fapln\u00e9 f\u00faze\u201c polsk\u00e9 bezpe\u010dnosti s americkou strategi\u00ed. Z\u0159ejm\u011b je i nad\u00e1le p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010den, \u017ee nez\u00e1vislost Polska mohou zaru\u010dit pouze bilater\u00e1ln\u00ed dohody s Washingtonem. Z\u00e1stupci koali\u010dn\u00ed vl\u00e1dy se v\u0161ak sna\u017e\u00ed m\u00e9n\u011b otev\u0159en\u011b zpochyb\u0148ovat z\u00e1ruky NATO a jednat pragmatick\u011bji, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e se dr\u017e\u00ed jednoduch\u00e9 z\u00e1sady ministryn\u011b obrany Kosiniak-Kamyszov\u00e9: \u201eTrval\u00fd model je v\u017edy lep\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e rota\u010dn\u00ed.\u201c<\/span><\/p>\n

Magick\u00e9 my\u0161len\u00ed<\/span><\/h3>\n

A\u0165 u\u017e se s \u201eFort Trump 2.0\u201c stane cokoli, diskuse kolem jeho v\u00fdstavby poskytuje zaj\u00edmav\u00fd vhled do sou\u010dasn\u00e9ho polsk\u00e9ho pojet\u00ed bezpe\u010dnosti.<\/span><\/p>\n

Hlavn\u00edm argumentem pro tuto my\u0161lenku, a to jak v politice, tak mezi odborn\u00edky, z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010den\u00ed, \u017ee st\u00e1l\u00e1 z\u00e1kladna, na rozd\u00edl od 10 000 americk\u00fdch voj\u00e1k\u016f, kte\u0159\u00ed jsou tam ji\u017e na rota\u010dn\u00ed b\u00e1zi rozm\u00edst\u011bni, pr\u00e1vn\u011b a infrastrukturn\u011b propoj\u00ed USA s Polskem a jeho bezpe\u010dnost\u00ed. Tuto v\u00edru v magickou s\u00edlu americk\u00e9 z\u00e1kladny nemohou ot\u0159\u00e1st ani \u010detn\u00e9 d\u016fkazy z posledn\u00edch let, kter\u00e9 ukazuj\u00ed, \u017ee p\u0159\u00edtomnost americk\u00fdch vojsk nezaru\u010duje bezpe\u010dnost a v n\u011bkter\u00fdch p\u0159\u00edpadech m\u00e1 dokonce opa\u010dn\u00fd \u00fa\u010dinek.<\/span><\/p>\n

Sou\u010dasn\u00e1 v\u00e1lka v Persk\u00e9m z\u00e1livu je jasn\u00fdm p\u0159\u00edkladem: americk\u00e9 z\u00e1kladny v Kataru (Al Udeid), Bahrajnu (velitelstv\u00ed 5. flotily), Kuvajtu a Spojen\u00fdch arabsk\u00fdch emir\u00e1tech nedok\u00e1zaly zabr\u00e1nit \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fdm bombardovac\u00edm \u00fatok\u016fm. Podobn\u00e1 situace nastala v Afgh\u00e1nist\u00e1nu v roce 2021 a v Gruzii v roce 2008.<\/span><\/p>\n

Jedin\u00e1 n\u00e1mitka v samotn\u00e9m Polsku se t\u00fdk\u00e1 navrhovan\u00e9ho um\u00edst\u011bn\u00ed za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed. Podle prvn\u00edch zpr\u00e1v jsou z\u00e1kladny pl\u00e1nov\u00e1ny v Doln\u00edm Slezsku (z\u00e1padn\u011b od Vratislavi), pobl\u00ed\u017e Poznan\u011b a\/nebo \u0160t\u011bt\u00edna, tj. v z\u00e1padn\u00edm Polsku, bl\u00edzko n\u011bmeck\u00fdch hranic. Mnoho vojensk\u00fdch expert\u016f toto geografick\u00e9 um\u00edst\u011bn\u00ed kritizovalo a ozna\u010dilo ho za neefektivn\u00ed pro \u201ezadr\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed Ruska\u201c a za pokus Ameri\u010dan\u016f \u201eschovat se za z\u00e1da polsk\u00fdch voj\u00e1k\u016f\u201c. N\u011bkte\u0159\u00ed koment\u00e1to\u0159i \u017eertuj\u00ed: Bude muset polsk\u00e1 arm\u00e1da tato za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed br\u00e1nit sama?<\/span><\/p>\n

To st\u00e1le zn\u00ed jako vtip, a\u010dkoli vl\u00e1da u\u017e diskutuje o p\u0159\u00edsn\u011bj\u0161\u00edch trestech \u2013 a\u017e po do\u017eivot\u00ed \u2013 pro voj\u00e1ky, kte\u0159\u00ed v boji odm\u00edtaj\u00ed plnit rozkazy.<\/span><\/p>\n

Symbolick\u00fd v\u00fdznam z\u00e1kladny (\u010di z\u00e1kladen) je v\u0161ak pova\u017eov\u00e1n za t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 v\u00fdznamn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e jej\u00ed skute\u010dn\u00fd vojensk\u00fd potenci\u00e1l. Var\u0161ava se domn\u00edv\u00e1, \u017ee z\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed st\u00e1l\u00e9 pos\u00e1dky definitivn\u011b upevn\u00ed roli Polska jako nejd\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00edho vojensk\u00e9ho logistick\u00e9ho uzlu na cel\u00e9m v\u00fdchodn\u00edm k\u0159\u00eddle NATO a v\u00fdrazn\u011b pos\u00edl\u00ed jeho postaven\u00ed v r\u00e1mci aliance a EU.<\/span><\/p>\n

Kritika projektu st\u00e1l\u00e9 americk\u00e9 z\u00e1kladny v Polsku vych\u00e1z\u00ed p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm od ekonom\u016f, kte\u0159\u00ed poukazuj\u00ed na obrovskou dodate\u010dnou z\u00e1t\u011b\u017e, kterou by to znamenalo pro polsk\u00fd st\u00e1tn\u00ed rozpo\u010det. Na rozd\u00edl od rotuj\u00edc\u00ed p\u0159\u00edtomnosti by v\u00fdstavba st\u00e1l\u00e9 infrastruktury vhodn\u00e9 pro p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 5 000 americk\u00fdch voj\u00e1k\u016f a jejich rodiny vy\u017eadovala od hostitelsk\u00e9 zem\u011b obrovsk\u00e9 investice. N\u00e1klady samotn\u00e9ho projektu z\u00e1kladny se v sou\u010dasnosti odhaduj\u00ed na 10 a\u017e 12 miliard zlot\u00fdch (p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 2,3 a\u017e 4 miliardy eur). Takov\u00e9 \u201edrobn\u00e9\u201c \u00favahy, jako je mo\u017enost u\u010dinit z t\u00e9to \u010d\u00e1sti Polska hlavn\u00ed c\u00edl (odvetn\u00e9ho) \u00faderu v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b hypotetick\u00e9ho konfliktu, jsou v sou\u010dasn\u00e9 debat\u011b odm\u00edt\u00e1ny jako nev\u00fdhodn\u00e9 n\u00e1klady.<\/span><\/p>\n

V\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e1 hore\u010dka a rozpo\u010dtov\u00fd deficit<\/span><\/h3>\n

Je z\u0159ejm\u00e9, \u017ee vl\u00e1da sotva zva\u017euje ekonomick\u00e9 argumenty a Var\u0161avu zastav\u00ed. Polsko z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 l\u00eddrem ve zvy\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed vojensk\u00fdch v\u00fddaj\u016f, i kdy\u017e tato spir\u00e1la nen\u00ed v n\u00e1rodn\u00edm z\u00e1jmu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Rozs\u00e1hl\u00e9 hromad\u011bn\u00ed zbran\u00ed v Evrop\u011b prosp\u00edv\u00e1 p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm USA, nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edmu sv\u011btov\u00e9mu v\u00fdvozci zbran\u00ed, jeho\u017e pod\u00edl na glob\u00e1ln\u00edm trhu dos\u00e1hl za posledn\u00edch p\u011bt let 43 procent. Pokud vylou\u010d\u00edme asijsk\u00e9 z\u00e1kazn\u00edky Washingtonu, jako je Japonsko, Ji\u017en\u00ed Korea a Indie, a tak\u00e9 Austr\u00e1lii a Bl\u00edzk\u00fd v\u00fdchod, jsou evropsk\u00e9 zem\u011b nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edmi dovozci americk\u00fdch zbran\u00ed. Polsko zauj\u00edm\u00e1 v r\u00e1mci EU nesporn\u00e9 p\u0159edn\u00ed postaven\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Sou\u010dasn\u00e1 \u201ev\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e1 hore\u010dka\u201c je tak\u00e9 do zna\u010dn\u00e9 m\u00edry reakc\u00ed na tlak ze strany USA, kter\u00e9 tla\u010d\u00ed na sv\u00e9 spojence po cel\u00e9m sv\u011bt\u011b, od Kanady po Austr\u00e1lii, ke zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed v\u00fddaj\u016f na obranu (co\u017e samoz\u0159ejm\u011b podporuje americk\u00fd v\u00fdvoz zbran\u00ed). V reakci na to Brusel spustil projekt EU SAFE (Security Action for Europe), jeho\u017e c\u00edlem je omezit dovoz zbran\u00ed ze t\u0159et\u00edch zem\u00ed a kter\u00fd zjevn\u011b rozzlobil jak B\u00edl\u00fd d\u016fm, tak celou americkou zbrojn\u00ed lobby.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nicm\u00e9n\u011b neust\u00e1l\u00e9 p\u0159i\u017eivov\u00e1n\u00ed m\u00fdtu o hrozb\u011b \u201erusk\u00e9 invaze\u201c na Z\u00e1pad\u011b, v\u010detn\u011b Polska, p\u0159isp\u011blo k dlouhodob\u00e9mu boomu v prodeji zbran\u00ed, zejm\u00e9na americk\u00fdch. Americk\u00fd zbrojn\u00ed pr\u016fmysl dominuje d\u00edky st\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00edm v\u00fdrobn\u00edm kapacit\u00e1m, kter\u00e9 evropsk\u00e9 tov\u00e1rny v sou\u010dasnosti postr\u00e1daj\u00ed, a technologick\u00e9 z\u00e1vislosti kupuj\u00edc\u00edch na n\u00e1sledn\u00e9 \u00fadr\u017eb\u011b americk\u00e9ho vybaven\u00ed. Washington nav\u00edc c\u00edlen\u011b poskytuje spojenc\u016fm p\u016fj\u010dky pod podm\u00ednkou, \u017ee nakupuj\u00ed pouze americk\u00e9 zbran\u011b, a polsk\u00e1 vojensk\u00e1 infrastruktura je od sam\u00e9ho za\u010d\u00e1tku p\u0159izp\u016fsobena americk\u00fdm z\u00e1kladn\u00e1m. To m\u00e1 geopolitick\u00e9, makroekonomick\u00e9 i mikroekonomick\u00e9 d\u016fsledky. Od roku 2022 tento sektor za\u017e\u00edv\u00e1 exponenci\u00e1ln\u00ed r\u016fst: nap\u0159\u00edklad l\u00eddr v oboru Lockheed Martin prodal v roce 2025 vojensk\u00e9 vybaven\u00ed a software v rekordn\u00ed hodnot\u011b 75 miliard dolar\u016f s provozn\u00ed ziskovou mar\u017e\u00ed 10,3 procenta. Na pozad\u00ed v\u0161eobecn\u00e9 psych\u00f3zy, kterou p\u0159i\u017eivuj\u00ed z\u00e1padn\u00ed elity, dosahuj\u00ed historick\u00e9 rekordy v prodeji a v\u00fdrob\u011b i evropsk\u00e9 zbrojn\u00ed spole\u010dnosti.<\/span><\/p>\n

Aby Var\u0161ava dr\u017eela krok s p\u0159edn\u00edmi zem\u011bmi, zvy\u0161uje nejen vojensk\u00e9 v\u00fddaje, ale i rozpo\u010dtov\u00fd deficit. Podle progn\u00f3z dos\u00e1hnou st\u00e1tn\u00ed p\u0159\u00edjmy v roce 2026 647,2 miliardy zlot\u00fdch (p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 149,5 miliardy eur). Navzdory vysok\u00e9 da\u0148ov\u00e9 z\u00e1t\u011b\u017ei obyvatelstva v\u0161ak letos dos\u00e1hne rekordn\u00edho rozpo\u010dtov\u00e9ho deficitu ve v\u00fd\u0161i nejm\u00e9n\u011b 271,7 miliardy zlot\u00fdch (p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 62,8 miliardy eur). Z makroekonomick\u00e9ho hlediska to destabilizuje cel\u00fd syst\u00e9m zem\u011b, zejm\u00e9na proto, \u017ee obrovsk\u00fd deficit je umocn\u011bn z\u00e1pornou platebn\u00ed bilanc\u00ed v d\u016fsledku rostouc\u00edho dovozu zahrani\u010dn\u00edch zbran\u00ed. Polsko plat\u00ed za svou \u201ez\u00e1kladn\u00ed m\u00e1nii\u201c hromad\u011bn\u00edm dluh\u016f jak doma, tak v zahrani\u010d\u00ed. A zat\u00edmco p\u0159\u00ed\u010diny tohoto jevu le\u017e\u00ed v oblasti iracion\u00e1ln\u00edho, jeho finan\u010dn\u00ed d\u016fsledky pro budoucnost zem\u011b budou zcela racion\u00e1ln\u00ed a hmatateln\u00e9.<\/span><\/p>\n

Autorka: Maria Pavlowa<\/strong>, histori\u010dka a v\u011bdeck\u00e1 pracovnice \u00dastavu sv\u011btov\u00e9 ekonomiky a mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edch vztah\u016f Rusk\u00e9 akademie v\u011bd<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

V \u010dervnu polsk\u00fd ministr obrany W\u0142adys\u0142aw Kosiniak-Kamysz ozn\u00e1mil, \u017ee ministrovi Pentagonu Petu Hegsethovi navrhl z\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":59670,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1503,31,37,1210],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/111405"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=111405"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/111405\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/59670"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=111405"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=111405"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=111405"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}