{"id":111099,"date":"2026-07-20T00:15:51","date_gmt":"2026-07-19T22:15:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=111099"},"modified":"2026-07-19T12:49:14","modified_gmt":"2026-07-19T10:49:14","slug":"pepe-escobar-iran-utoci-na-strategicke-linie-perskeho-zalivu-a-washington-ztraci-kontrolu-nad-eskalaci","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/07\/20\/pepe-escobar-iran-utoci-na-strategicke-linie-perskeho-zalivu-a-washington-ztraci-kontrolu-nad-eskalaci\/","title":{"rendered":"Pepe Escobar: \u00cdr\u00e1n \u00fato\u010d\u00ed na strategick\u00e9 linie Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu \u2013 a Washington ztr\u00e1c\u00ed kontrolu nad eskalac\u00ed"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"fb-root\"><\/div>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">V rozs\u00e1hl\u00e9m rozhovoru s politick\u00fdm koment\u00e1torem Dannym Haiphongem analyzuje brazilsk\u00fd novin\u00e1\u0159 a geopolitick\u00fd expert Pepe Escobar ned\u00e1vnou eskalaci v\u00e1lky proti \u00cdr\u00e1nu. Zam\u011b\u0159uje se na \u00fatoky na most kr\u00e1le Fahda mezi Bahrajnem a Sa\u00fadskou Ar\u00e1bi\u00ed, \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 \u00fatoky na energetickou a p\u0159\u00edstavn\u00ed infrastrukturu v Persk\u00e9m z\u00e1livu, z\u00e1hadnou mimo\u0159\u00e1dnou ud\u00e1lost t\u00fdkaj\u00edc\u00ed se st\u00edha\u010dky F-35 a rostouc\u00ed nebezpe\u010d\u00ed, \u017ee Jemen a pr\u016fliv Bab al-Mandab budou pln\u011b vta\u017eeny do konfliktu. Escobar vn\u00edm\u00e1 v\u00e1lku jako mnohem v\u00edc ne\u017e jen region\u00e1ln\u00ed konflikt: \u00fatok je pro n\u011bj nam\u00ed\u0159en tak\u00e9 proti ekonomick\u00e9 integraci Eurasie, proti \u010c\u00edn\u011b, Rusku a zem\u00edm BRICS a proti postupn\u00e9mu \u00fapadku petrodolarov\u00e9ho syst\u00e9mu.<\/span><\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\"><iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"Pepe Escobar: \u00cdr\u00e1n NI\u010c\u00cd most mezi Bahrajnem a Sa\u00fadskou Ar\u00e1bi\u00ed, NOUZOV\u00dd STAV F-35, Trump SE \u0160\u00cdL\u00cd\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/kHPXtttJjAQ?start=44&amp;feature=oembed\" width=\"800\" height=\"450\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\" data-mce-fragment=\"1\"><\/iframe><\/div>\n<\/figure>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span dir=\"auto\">\u201eMost po most\u011b\u201c: \u00cdr\u00e1n reaguje na \u00fatoky na svou infrastrukturu<\/span><\/h2>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Na za\u010d\u00e1tku rozhovoru Haiphong popisuje novou \u00farove\u0148 \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 odvety. Podle n\u011bj pot\u00e9, co Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty bombardovaly n\u011bkolik most\u016f v \u00cdr\u00e1nu, Teher\u00e1n reagoval \u00fatokem na strategicky citliv\u00fd dopravn\u00ed uzel: most kr\u00e1le Fahda, kter\u00fd spojuje Bahrajn se Sa\u00fadskou Ar\u00e1bi\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Z\u00e1rove\u0148 byly ter\u010dem \u00fatok\u016f americk\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 z\u00e1kladny ve Spojen\u00fdch arabsk\u00fdch emir\u00e1tech. P\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b ve stejnou dobu jako tyto \u00fatoky do\u0161lo k mimo\u0159\u00e1dn\u00e9 ud\u00e1losti t\u00fdkaj\u00edc\u00ed se st\u00edha\u010dky F-35. I kdy\u017e p\u0159\u00edm\u00e1 souvislost s \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fdm \u00fatokem nebyla potvrzena, je pozoruhodn\u00e9, \u017ee americk\u00e9 \u00dast\u0159edn\u00ed velen\u00ed (CENTCOM) je ve sv\u00fdch zpr\u00e1v\u00e1ch o vlastn\u00edch ztr\u00e1t\u00e1ch nebo technick\u00fdch probl\u00e9mech soustavn\u011b velmi zdr\u017eenliv\u00e9.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Bahrajn byl v noci tak\u00e9 t\u011b\u017ece zasa\u017een. Podle zpr\u00e1v zm\u00edn\u011bn\u00fdch v rozhovoru byla \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fdmi raketami zasa\u017eena rafinerie BAPCO a dal\u0161\u00ed \u017eivotn\u011b d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e1 energetick\u00e1 infrastruktura pro oblast Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu. Z\u00e1rove\u0148 CENTCOM uvedl, \u017ee za\u00fato\u010dil na des\u00edtky c\u00edl\u016f pod\u00e9l ji\u017en\u00edho pob\u0159e\u017e\u00ed \u00cdr\u00e1nu.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Escobar jasn\u011b uv\u00e1d\u00ed, \u017ee podle jeho hodnocen\u00ed nejsou \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 \u00fatoky nerozli\u0161uj\u00edc\u00ed. Jsou sou\u010d\u00e1st\u00ed kontrolovan\u00e9 a postupn\u011b stup\u0148uj\u00edc\u00ed se reakce. Teher\u00e1n se sna\u017e\u00ed zp\u016fsobit \u0161kody, ani\u017e by okam\u017eit\u011b vy\u010derpal v\u0161echny mo\u017enosti eskalace.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Poselstv\u00edm je, \u017ee \u00cdr\u00e1n je schopen dos\u00e1hnout strategick\u00fdch dopravn\u00edch tras, p\u0159\u00edstav\u016f, rafineri\u00ed, leteck\u00fdch z\u00e1kladen a energetick\u00fdch center spojenc\u016f USA v Persk\u00e9m z\u00e1livu. Zat\u00edm se v\u0161ak omezuje na um\u00edrn\u011bn\u00e1 varov\u00e1n\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span dir=\"auto\">Most kr\u00e1le Fahda jako strategick\u00fd varovn\u00fd sign\u00e1l<\/span><\/h2>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Most kr\u00e1le Fahda, dlouh\u00fd p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 25 kilometr\u016f, je mnohem v\u00edc ne\u017e jen oby\u010dejn\u00e9 silni\u010dn\u00ed spojen\u00ed. P\u0159\u00edmo spojuje ostrov Bahrajn se sa\u00fadskou pevninou, a proto m\u00e1 obrovsk\u00fd ekonomick\u00fd, vojensk\u00fd a politick\u00fd v\u00fdznam.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Escobar vysv\u011btlil, \u017ee s\u00e1m tento most p\u0159ejel. Z hlediska jeho region\u00e1ln\u00edho v\u00fdznamu by se dal \u2013 s ur\u010dit\u00fdmi omezen\u00edmi \u2013 p\u0159irovnat ke Krymsk\u00e9mu mostu. Ne proto, \u017ee by ob\u011b stavby byly identick\u00e9, ale proto, \u017ee funguj\u00ed jako technicky sofistikovan\u00e9 a vysoce symbolick\u00e9 politick\u00e9 spojen\u00ed mezi dv\u011bma strategicky d\u016fle\u017eit\u00fdmi regiony.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">V dob\u011b rozhovoru nebyl skute\u010dn\u00fd rozsah \u0161kod st\u00e1le jasn\u00fd. Bylo mo\u017en\u00e9, \u017ee \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fd \u00fatok byl p\u016fvodn\u011b zam\u00fd\u0161len pouze jako varovn\u00fd v\u00fdst\u0159el. Escobar v\u0161ak tak\u00e9 varoval:<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em><span dir=\"auto\">&#8222;Odte\u010f u\u017e \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 varovn\u00e9 v\u00fdst\u0159ely nebudou.&#8220;<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Pro n\u011bj je tedy \u00fatok m\u00e9n\u011b v\u00fdznamn\u00fd kv\u016fli bezprost\u0159edn\u00edm \u0161kod\u00e1m, kter\u00e9 zp\u016fsobil, ne\u017e kv\u016fli poselstv\u00ed, kter\u00e9 vys\u00edl\u00e1. \u00cdr\u00e1n uk\u00e1zal, \u017ee se dok\u00e1\u017ee dostat k \u017eivotn\u011b d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 tepn\u011b pro Bahrajn a Sa\u00fadskou Ar\u00e1bii. Pokud by eskalace pokra\u010dovala, mohl by b\u00fdt budouc\u00ed \u00fatok mnohem ni\u010div\u011bj\u0161\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">\u00cdr\u00e1n by se mohl pokusit most zcela vy\u0159adit z provozu, a t\u00edm by Bahrajn alespo\u0148 do\u010dasn\u011b od\u0159\u00edzl od p\u0159\u00edm\u00e9 pozemn\u00ed cesty do Sa\u00fadsk\u00e9 Ar\u00e1bie. To by bylo obzvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b citliv\u00e9, proto\u017ee Bahrajn je nejen bl\u00edzk\u00fdm spojencem Washingtonu, ale tak\u00e9 host\u00ed velitelstv\u00ed americk\u00e9 p\u00e1t\u00e9 flotily.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span dir=\"auto\">\u00datok na \u010cabah\u00e1r: Washington nebombarduje jen \u00cdr\u00e1n<\/span><\/h2>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Escobar reagoval s obzvl\u00e1\u0161tn\u00ed zu\u0159ivost\u00ed na bombardov\u00e1n\u00ed p\u0159\u00edstavn\u00ed infrastruktury v \u010cabah\u00e1ru v jihov\u00fdchodn\u00edm \u00cdr\u00e1nu. Zd\u016fraznil, \u017ee zasa\u017een\u00e1 kontroln\u00ed v\u011b\u017e nebyla prim\u00e1rn\u011b vojensk\u00fdm za\u0159\u00edzen\u00edm. \u0158\u00eddila civiln\u00ed n\u00e1kladn\u00ed dopravu a provoz p\u0159\u00edstavu.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Escobar zn\u00e1 p\u0159\u00edstav z prvn\u00ed ruky. Nav\u0161t\u00edvil Chabahar kv\u016fli dokumentu s n\u00e1zvem \u201eZlat\u00fd koridor\u201c a zkoumal v\u00fdznam t\u00e9to lokality pro budouc\u00ed ekonomick\u00e9 propojen\u00ed Eurasie.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">\u010cabah\u00e1r se nach\u00e1z\u00ed v provincii S\u00edst\u00e1n a Bal\u00fa\u010dist\u00e1n v Om\u00e1nsk\u00e9m z\u00e1livu, nedaleko p\u00e1kist\u00e1nsk\u00fdch hranic. P\u0159\u00edstav je kl\u00ed\u010dovou sou\u010d\u00e1st\u00ed mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edho severoji\u017en\u00edho dopravn\u00edho koridoru, kter\u00fd m\u00e1 propojit Indii p\u0159es \u00cdr\u00e1n s Ruskem, St\u0159edn\u00ed Asi\u00ed a dal\u0161\u00edmi oblastmi.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Tento koridor umo\u017e\u0148uje odklonit \u010d\u00e1st obchodu mimo tradi\u010dn\u00ed obchodn\u00ed trasy ovl\u00e1dan\u00e9 Z\u00e1padem, zejm\u00e9na trasu p\u0159es Suezsk\u00fd pr\u016fplav. Z\u00e1rove\u0148 vytv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed nov\u00e9 dopravn\u00ed mo\u017enosti, kter\u00e9 nejsou zcela z\u00e1visl\u00e9 na obchodn\u00edm syst\u00e9mu zalo\u017een\u00e9m na dolaru.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Escobarova \u00fast\u0159edn\u00ed teze tedy zn\u00ed: \u00datokem na \u010cabah\u00e1r Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty nejen bombarduj\u00ed \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fd p\u0159\u00edstav. \u00dato\u010d\u00ed na jeden z nejd\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00edch budouc\u00edch dopravn\u00edch koridor\u016f mezi Ruskem, \u00cdr\u00e1nem a Indi\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">\u010cabah\u00e1r je civiln\u00edm centrem nov\u00e9 euroasijsk\u00e9 obchodn\u00ed architektury. \u00datok je proto nep\u0159\u00edmo nam\u00ed\u0159en proti n\u011bkolika st\u00e1t\u016fm sou\u010dasn\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Escobar to vyjad\u0159uje drasticky: Kdokoli bombarduje \u010cabah\u00e1r, bombarduje \u010d\u00e1st nov\u00e9 Hedv\u00e1bn\u00e9 stezky, a tedy i \u00cdr\u00e1n, Rusko, Indii a \u010c\u00ednu.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span dir=\"auto\">\u010cabah\u00e1r a Gv\u00e1dar: Dva p\u0159\u00edstavy, jedna strategick\u00e1 s\u00ed\u0165<\/span><\/h2>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Pouh\u00fdch asi 80 kilometr\u016f od \u010cabah\u00e1ru na p\u00e1kist\u00e1nsk\u00e9 stran\u011b se nach\u00e1z\u00ed p\u0159\u00edstav Gv\u00e1dar. Ten tvo\u0159\u00ed \u00fast\u0159edn\u00ed sou\u010d\u00e1st \u010d\u00ednsko-p\u00e1kist\u00e1nsk\u00e9ho ekonomick\u00e9ho koridoru, jednoho z nejd\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00edch projekt\u016f v r\u00e1mci \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 iniciativy P\u00e1s a stezka.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Podle Escobara se \u010cabah\u00e1r a Gv\u00e1dar st\u00e1le v\u00edce st\u00e1vaj\u00ed partnersk\u00fdmi p\u0159\u00edstavy. Pokud by se \u010cabah\u00e1r stal do\u010dasn\u011b nepou\u017eiteln\u00fdm kv\u016fli americk\u00fdm \u00fatok\u016fm, mohlo by b\u00fdt \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 zbo\u017e\u00ed p\u0159epravov\u00e1no po sou\u0161i do P\u00e1kist\u00e1nu a odv\u00e1\u017eeno z Gv\u00e1daru.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">To ilustruje, jak obt\u00ed\u017en\u00e9 je skute\u010dn\u011b ekonomicky od\u0159\u00edznout \u00cdr\u00e1n. USA by mohly bombardovat jednotliv\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edstavy, silnice, mosty nebo \u017eelezni\u010dn\u00ed trat\u011b. Vznikaj\u00edc\u00ed s\u00ed\u0165 alternativn\u00edch obchodn\u00edch cest v\u0161ak nelze snadno zni\u010dit.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">P\u00e1kist\u00e1n otev\u0159el n\u011bkolik pozemn\u00edch koridor\u016f pro \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fd obchod. To \u00cdr\u00e1nu umo\u017e\u0148uje pokra\u010dovat ve v\u00fdvozu, i kdy\u017e jsou jeho p\u0159\u00edstavy v Persk\u00e9m z\u00e1livu blokov\u00e1ny nebo po\u0161kozeny.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">\u010c\u00edna tento v\u00fdvoj podporuje, proto\u017ee Peking udr\u017euje strategick\u00e1 partnerstv\u00ed s P\u00e1kist\u00e1nem i \u00cdr\u00e1nem. Ob\u011b zem\u011b jsou d\u016fle\u017eit\u00fdmi sou\u010d\u00e1stmi iniciativy P\u00e1s a stezka.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Escobar to vid\u00ed jako hlub\u0161\u00ed d\u016fvod \u00fatok\u016f: Washington se sna\u017e\u00ed nejen zas\u00e1hnout \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edjmy a dopravn\u00ed trasy, ale naru\u0161it celou euroasijskou s\u00ed\u0165.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span dir=\"auto\">Bandar Abb\u00e1s m\u00e1 b\u00fdt od\u0159\u00edznut od zbytku \u00cdr\u00e1nu<\/span><\/h2>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Krom\u011b \u010cabah\u00e1ru byly napadeny tak\u00e9 mosty a dopravn\u00ed spojen\u00ed pobl\u00ed\u017e Bandar Abb\u00e1su. Bandar Abb\u00e1s je nejd\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00edm \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fdm p\u0159\u00edstavem v Persk\u00e9m z\u00e1livu a kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fdm pro v\u00fdvoz energie do zem\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Escobar uv\u00e1d\u00ed, \u017ee tento p\u0159\u00edstav tak\u00e9 osobn\u011b nav\u0161t\u00edvil. Popisuje ho jako obrovsk\u00fd komplex a kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e9 centrum \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 ekonomiky.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Podle n\u011bj byl mezi bombardovan\u00fdmi c\u00edli i kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fd most spojuj\u00edc\u00ed jih zem\u011b s p\u0159\u00edstavem. Tyto \u00fatoky by mohly b\u00fdt sou\u010d\u00e1st\u00ed strategie od\u0159\u00edznout Bandar Abb\u00e1s a cel\u00e9 pob\u0159e\u017e\u00ed \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu od vnitrozem\u00ed zem\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">N\u011bkter\u00e9 hlasy v \u00cdr\u00e1nu dokonce vn\u00edmaly ni\u010den\u00ed most\u016f a dopravn\u00edch tras jako mo\u017enou p\u0159\u00edpravu na pozd\u011bj\u0161\u00ed pozemn\u00ed operaci. Escobar sice takovou invazi nevylu\u010duje, ale pochybuje, \u017ee by zahrani\u010dn\u00ed vojska mohla oblast kolem Bandar Abb\u00e1su trvale udr\u017eet.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Region je siln\u011b zabezpe\u010den raketov\u00fdmi syst\u00e9my a bezpilotn\u00edmi letouny. Jak\u00fdkoli pokus o rozs\u00e1hl\u00e9 vylod\u011bn\u00ed nebo okupaci by proto znamenal extr\u00e9mn\u011b vysok\u00e1 rizika.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Pro Escobara je bezprost\u0159edn\u011bj\u0161\u00edm c\u00edlem americk\u00fdch \u00fatok\u016f paralyzovat \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fd obchod, znepokojit obyvatelstvo a zp\u016fsobit co nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed \u0161kody civiln\u00ed infrastruktu\u0159e.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span dir=\"auto\">Strategie proti populaci<\/span><\/h2>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Washington tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee c\u00edlem \u00fatok\u016f je oslaben\u00ed \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fdch ozbrojen\u00fdch sil. Rozhovor v\u0161ak nazna\u010duje, \u017ee USA se st\u00e1le \u010dast\u011bji zam\u011b\u0159uj\u00ed na civiln\u00ed a ekonomick\u00e9 c\u00edle, proto\u017ee nemohou \u00edr\u00e1nskou arm\u00e1du rozhodn\u011b neutralizovat.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">C\u00edlem je m\u00edsto toho izolovat jih zem\u011b, naru\u0161it dodavatelsk\u00e9 \u0159et\u011bzce a u\u0161krtit \u00edr\u00e1nskou ekonomiku zven\u010d\u00ed. Tato strategie nen\u00ed v \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b nov\u00e1. Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty se ji\u017e v\u00edce ne\u017e \u010dty\u0159i desetilet\u00ed sna\u017e\u00ed od\u0159\u00edznout \u00cdr\u00e1n od zbytku sv\u011bta prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm sankc\u00ed, embarg, finan\u010dn\u00edch blok\u00e1d a politick\u00e9 izolace.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Novinkou je, \u017ee tato ekonomick\u00e1 v\u00e1lka nyn\u00ed p\u0159ech\u00e1z\u00ed do otev\u0159en\u00fdch \u00fatok\u016f na p\u0159\u00edstavy, silnice, mosty a energetick\u00e1 za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Escobar to vn\u00edm\u00e1 jako \u00famyslnou strategii, jej\u00edm\u017e c\u00edlem je zp\u016fsobit maxim\u00e1ln\u00ed \u0161kody ka\u017edodenn\u00edmu civiln\u00edmu \u017eivotu. C\u00edlem je naru\u0161it dopravn\u00ed trasy, oslabit dodavatelsk\u00e9 \u0159et\u011bzce, zni\u010dit pracovn\u00ed m\u00edsta a st\u00e1le v\u00edce zt\u00ed\u017eit \u017eivot obyvatelstvu.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span dir=\"auto\">\u00cdr\u00e1n \u201eovl\u00e1d\u00e1 hodiny\u201c<\/span><\/h2>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Navzdory americk\u00fdm leteck\u00fdm \u00fader\u016fm vid\u00ed Escobar strategickou v\u00fdhodu na stran\u011b Teher\u00e1nu. \u00cdr\u00e1n kontroluje tempo konfliktu.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Jeho reakce se denn\u011b upravuje, roz\u0161i\u0159uje a zdokonaluje. Teher\u00e1n se sna\u017e\u00ed zp\u016fsobit USA a jejich spojenc\u016fm zna\u010dn\u00e9 \u0161kody, ani\u017e by p\u0159ed\u010dasn\u011b nasadil v\u0161echny dostupn\u00e9 prost\u0159edky.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Podle Escobara si \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 veden\u00ed uv\u011bdomuje, \u017ee \u010das je na jeho stran\u011b. Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty \u010del\u00ed obrovsk\u00fdm logistick\u00fdm, finan\u010dn\u00edm a politick\u00fdm n\u00e1klad\u016fm na svou vojenskou p\u0159\u00edtomnost. \u010c\u00edm d\u00e9le bude v\u00e1lka trvat, t\u00edm v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed tato z\u00e1t\u011b\u017e bude.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">\u00cdr\u00e1n by na druhou stranu mohl reagovat postupn\u011b, vyb\u00edrat si c\u00edle a kontrolovan\u011b stoupat po \u017eeb\u0159\u00ed\u010dku eskalace.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Escobar se domn\u00edv\u00e1, \u017ee pr\u00e1v\u011b tato trp\u011blivost st\u00e1le v\u00edce doh\u00e1n\u00ed Donalda Trumpa k zoufalstv\u00ed. Bombardov\u00e1n\u00ed civiln\u00ed infrastruktury je projevem t\u00e9to frustrace.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Takov\u00e9 \u00fatoky by ale \u00cdr\u00e1n ani nezastra\u0161ily, ani by ho automaticky nep\u0159ivedly zp\u011bt k jednac\u00edmu stolu. Naopak by mohly m\u00edt opa\u010dn\u00fd \u00fa\u010dinek: mnohem tvrd\u0161\u00ed \u00edr\u00e1nskou reakci.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Escobar zd\u016fraz\u0148uje, \u017ee Teher\u00e1n stanovil jasn\u00e9 hranice. Jednou z nich je systematick\u00e9 ni\u010den\u00ed civiln\u00ed infrastruktury. Vzhledem k tomu, \u017ee t\u00e9to hranice bylo dosa\u017eeno, je t\u0159eba o\u010dek\u00e1vat v\u00fdraznou eskalaci odvetn\u00fdch opat\u0159en\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span dir=\"auto\">\u00datoky na americk\u00e9 speci\u00e1ln\u00ed jednotky a energetick\u00e1 centra<\/span><\/h2>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Rozhovor se tak\u00e9 zab\u00fdv\u00e1 \u00fadajn\u00fdm \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fdm \u00fatokem na americk\u00e9 speci\u00e1ln\u00ed jednotky v S\u00fdrii, p\u0159i kter\u00e9m byli \u00fadajn\u011b zabiti vysoce postaven\u00ed ameri\u010dt\u00ed d\u016fstojn\u00edci a zni\u010den radarov\u00fd syst\u00e9m.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">CENTCOM tyto zpr\u00e1vy rychle pop\u0159el. Haiphong v\u0161ak pop\u0159en\u00ed ozna\u010dil za nep\u0159esv\u011bd\u010div\u00e1.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Bez ohledu na to je jasn\u00e9, \u017ee \u00cdr\u00e1n st\u00e1le v\u00edce zam\u011b\u0159uje sv\u00e9 \u00fatoky na vojenskou a ekonomickou infrastrukturu americk\u00fdch spojenc\u016f v Persk\u00e9m z\u00e1livu.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">\u00datok na spole\u010dnost BAPCO v Bahrajnu je obzvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b v\u00fdznamn\u00fd. Spole\u010dnost provozuje kl\u00ed\u010dovou rafinerii a d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e1 za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed pro region\u00e1ln\u00ed z\u00e1sobov\u00e1n\u00ed energi\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">\u00cdr\u00e1n ukazuje, \u017ee se m\u016f\u017ee zam\u011b\u0159it nejen na vojensk\u00e9 z\u00e1kladny. M\u016f\u017ee se zam\u011b\u0159it i na ta ekonomick\u00e1 centra, na kter\u00fdch z\u00e1vis\u00ed monarchie Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu a cel\u00fd z\u00e1padn\u00ed energetick\u00fd trh.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span dir=\"auto\">Nouzov\u00e1 situace s F-35 jako symbol zraniteln\u00e9ho imp\u00e9ria<\/span><\/h2>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Nouzov\u00e1 situace s st\u00edha\u010dkou F-35 zm\u00edn\u011bn\u00e1 v n\u00e1zvu rozhovoru z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 nevy\u0159e\u0161ena. Zat\u00edmco se objevovaly zpr\u00e1vy o \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fdch \u00fatoc\u00edch na americk\u00e1 za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed ve Spojen\u00fdch arabsk\u00fdch emir\u00e1tech, st\u00edha\u010dka F-35 se z\u0159ejm\u011b ve stejnou dobu dostala do nouzov\u00e9 situace.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">\u00cdr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 zapojen\u00ed nebylo potvrzeno. Escobar tak\u00e9 zd\u016fraz\u0148uje, \u017ee flotila letoun\u016f F-35 se ji\u017e l\u00e9ta pot\u00fdk\u00e1 s technick\u00fdmi probl\u00e9my, nedostatkem \u00fadr\u017eby a vysok\u00fdmi provozn\u00edmi n\u00e1klady.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Je tedy stejn\u011b tak mo\u017en\u00e9, \u017ee nouzov\u00e1 situace byla zp\u016fsobena technickou vadou. V tom v\u0161ak spo\u010d\u00edv\u00e1 ur\u010dit\u00e1 symbolika: zat\u00edmco Washington prezentuje sv\u00e9 nejmodern\u011bj\u0161\u00ed zbran\u011b jako d\u016fkaz absolutn\u00ed vojensk\u00e9 p\u0159evahy, tyto syst\u00e9my v praktick\u00e9m pou\u017eit\u00ed opakovan\u011b vykazuj\u00ed zna\u010dn\u00e9 slabiny.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">F-35 tak p\u0159edstavuje z\u00e1padn\u00ed vojensk\u00fd pr\u016fmysl, kter\u00fd vyr\u00e1b\u00ed extr\u00e9mn\u011b drah\u00e9 zbra\u0148ov\u00e9 syst\u00e9my, jejich\u017e skute\u010dn\u00fd v\u00fdkon \u010dasto nedosahuje politick\u00fdch slib\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span dir=\"auto\">Z\u00e1hadn\u00e9 chov\u00e1n\u00ed Sa\u00fadsk\u00e9 Ar\u00e1bie<\/span><\/h2>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">\u00dast\u0159edn\u00ed \u010d\u00e1st rozhovoru se zab\u00fdv\u00e1 ot\u00e1zkou, jakou roli hraje Sa\u00fadsk\u00e1 Ar\u00e1bie v t\u00e9to nov\u00e9 f\u00e1zi eskalace.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Escobar a jeho partner vysv\u011btluj\u00ed, \u017ee ani p\u00e1kist\u00e1n\u0161t\u00ed medi\u00e1to\u0159i z\u0159ejm\u011b nemaj\u00ed jasnou odpov\u011b\u010f na to, pro\u010d Rij\u00e1d podnik\u00e1 kroky, kter\u00e9 by mohly konflikt d\u00e1le eskalovat.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Sa\u00fadsk\u00fd \u00fatok na ranvej mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edho leti\u0161t\u011b v San\u00e1 v Jemenu je obzvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b z\u00e1va\u017en\u00fd.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">\u00cdr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 letadlo d\u0159\u00edve prorazilo blok\u00e1du leti\u0161t\u011b, aby p\u0159epravilo jemenskou delegaci. P\u0159i zp\u00e1te\u010dn\u00edm letu byla bombardov\u00e1na ranvej v San\u00e1. Pilot musel narychlo odklonit letadlo do Hodaidah a p\u0159ist\u00e1l tam za obt\u00ed\u017en\u00fdch podm\u00ednek.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Escobar pilota nazval hrdinou. Nouzov\u00e9 p\u0159ist\u00e1n\u00ed bylo mo\u017en\u00e9 pouze proto, \u017ee ranvej v Hodeidah byla p\u0159ed n\u011bkolika dny opravena.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Pt\u00e1 se, pro\u010d Sa\u00fadsk\u00e1 Ar\u00e1bie pr\u00e1v\u011b te\u010f znovu podnik\u00e1 kroky proti Jemenu, vzhledem k tomu, \u017ee mezi ob\u011bma stranami existuje proces porozum\u011bn\u00ed a Rij\u00e1d by m\u011bl m\u00edt ve skute\u010dnosti z\u00e1jem vyhnout se dal\u0161\u00ed front\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span dir=\"auto\">Jemen by mohl ot\u0159\u00e1st sv\u011btov\u00fdm obchodem.<\/span><\/h2>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Escobar se domn\u00edv\u00e1, \u017ee sa\u00fadsk\u00fd \u00fatok na San\u00e1 by mohl p\u0159im\u011bt Ansarall\u00e1h a jemensk\u00e9 ozbrojen\u00e9 s\u00edly k aktivn\u00ed \u00fa\u010dasti ve v\u00e1lce.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Pokud by Jemen zablokoval pr\u016fliv Bab al-Mandab, d\u016fsledky by se jen st\u011b\u017e\u00ed daly p\u0159ece\u0148ovat.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Bab al-Mandab je jednou z nejd\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00edch n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00edch tras na sv\u011bt\u011b. Spojuje Rud\u00e9 mo\u0159e s Adensk\u00fdm z\u00e1livem a t\u00edm i Suezsk\u00fd pr\u016fplav s Indick\u00fdm oce\u00e1nem.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Blok\u00e1da by ovlivnila nejen p\u0159epravu ropy a plynu, ale i v\u00fdznamnou \u010d\u00e1st glob\u00e1ln\u00edho kontejnerov\u00e9ho obchodu.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Escobar popisuje strategick\u00fd troj\u00faheln\u00edk:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span dir=\"auto\">Hormuzsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv na v\u00fdchod\u011b,<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span dir=\"auto\">Bab al-Mandab na jihu,<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span dir=\"auto\">San&#8217;\u00e1, respektive Jemen, je centrem region\u00e1ln\u00ed eskalace.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Pokud by Hormuz a Bab al-Mandab byly sou\u010dasn\u011b uzav\u0159eny nebo se staly z velk\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1sti nepr\u016fjezdn\u00fdmi, mohly by se zhroutit nejd\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00ed energetick\u00e9 exportn\u00ed trasy z\u00e1padn\u00ed Asie.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Sa\u00fadsk\u00e1 Ar\u00e1bie by pak m\u011bla jen m\u00e1lo alternativ. Export p\u0159es Persk\u00fd z\u00e1liv by byl zablokov\u00e1n. Z\u00e1rove\u0148 by mohl b\u00fdt ohro\u017een p\u0159\u00edstav Yanbu na pob\u0159e\u017e\u00ed Rud\u00e9ho mo\u0159e. C\u00edlem by se mohl st\u00e1t i ropovod V\u00fdchod-Z\u00e1pad, kter\u00fd p\u0159epravuje sa\u00fadskou ropu k pob\u0159e\u017e\u00ed Rud\u00e9ho mo\u0159e.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Takov\u00fd sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 by byl pro kr\u00e1lovstv\u00ed ekonomicky zni\u010duj\u00edc\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Escobar varuje, \u017ee Sa\u00fadsk\u00e1 Ar\u00e1bie op\u011btovn\u00fdm vstupem do konfliktu s Jemenem jedn\u00e1 proti sv\u00fdm vlastn\u00edm z\u00e1jm\u016fm o p\u0159e\u017eit\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span dir=\"auto\">Cena ropy 200 dolar\u016f \u2013 nebo i mnohem vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed<\/span><\/h2>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Rozhovor odkazuje na d\u0159\u00edv\u011bj\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdpo\u010dty Goldman Sachs. Podle t\u011bchto v\u00fdpo\u010dt\u016f by dlouhodob\u00e1 blok\u00e1da Hormuzsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu mohla cenu ropy zpo\u010d\u00e1tku vyn\u00e9st na 150 dolar\u016f, pozd\u011bji na 200 dolar\u016f a v extr\u00e9mn\u00edm p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b i mnohem v\u00fd\u0161e.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Escobar p\u0159edpokl\u00e1d\u00e1, \u017ee sou\u010dasn\u00e1 blok\u00e1da Hormuzu a Bab al-Mandabu by je\u0161t\u011b drasti\u010dt\u011bji urychlila v\u00fdvoj cen.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">V takov\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b by cena ropy mohla b\u011bhem t\u00fddne vzr\u016fst a\u017e na 200 dolar\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Rozhoduj\u00edc\u00edm faktorem nen\u00ed jen samotn\u00e1 cena ropy. Pokud by byly ob\u011b \u00fa\u017einy zablokov\u00e1ny, zastavila by se velk\u00e1 \u010d\u00e1st z\u00e1padoasijsk\u00e9ho exportu energie. Z\u00e1rove\u0148 by se dramaticky zv\u00fd\u0161ily n\u00e1klady na dopravu, pojistn\u00e9 a dodac\u00ed lh\u016fty.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Glob\u00e1ln\u00ed ekonomika nen\u00ed na takov\u00fd \u0161ok p\u0159ipravena.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span dir=\"auto\">D\u017eabel Ali a Fud\u017eajra v centru pozornosti<\/span><\/h2>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">\u00cdr\u00e1n ji\u017e jasn\u011b uvedl, \u017ee potenci\u00e1ln\u00edmi c\u00edli by se mohly st\u00e1t i dal\u0161\u00ed p\u0159\u00edstavy v zem\u00edch Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Pat\u0159\u00ed sem zejm\u00e9na Jebel Ali v Dubaji, jeden z nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edch kontejnerov\u00fdch p\u0159\u00edstav\u016f na sv\u011bt\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">\u00dast\u0159edn\u00ed roli hraje tak\u00e9 Fud\u017eajra. P\u0159\u00edstav le\u017e\u00ed v Hormuzsk\u00e9m pr\u016flivu v Om\u00e1nsk\u00e9m z\u00e1livu a je pova\u017eov\u00e1n za nejd\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00ed alternativn\u00ed trasu pro Spojen\u00e9 arabsk\u00e9 emir\u00e1ty v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b zablokov\u00e1n\u00ed Hormuzsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Po \u00fatoc\u00edch zm\u00edn\u011bn\u00fdch v rozhovoru se provoz ve Fud\u017eaj\u0159e z\u0159ejm\u011b \u010d\u00e1ste\u010dn\u011b nebo \u00fapln\u011b zastavil. I omezen\u00e1 st\u00e1vka sta\u010dila k do\u010dasn\u00e9mu paralyzov\u00e1n\u00ed p\u0159\u00edstavu.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Pro Escobara je to dal\u0161\u00ed varov\u00e1n\u00ed: pokud mal\u00fd \u00fatok m\u016f\u017ee postihnout tak d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 m\u00edsto, je t\u011b\u017ek\u00e9 p\u0159edv\u00eddat d\u016fsledky masivn\u00edho \u00faderu proti Jebel Ali nebo jin\u00fdm v\u00fdznamn\u00fdm p\u0159\u00edstav\u016fm.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">\u00datok na most kr\u00e1le Fahda, \u00fatok na Fud\u017eajru a \u00fatoky na BAPCO by proto m\u011bly b\u00fdt ch\u00e1p\u00e1ny jako sou\u010d\u00e1st t\u00e9\u017ee strategie. \u00cdr\u00e1n tak dokazuje, \u017ee dok\u00e1\u017ee zas\u00e1hnout ekonomick\u00e9 z\u00e1zem\u00ed sv\u00fdch protivn\u00edk\u016f, ani\u017e by musel nasadit plnou vojenskou kapacitu.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span dir=\"auto\">Kalkulovan\u00e1 destrukce glob\u00e1ln\u00ed ekonomiky?<\/span><\/h2>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">V pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b nejexplozivn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed \u010d\u00e1sti rozhovoru Escobar rozv\u00edj\u00ed dalekos\u00e1hlou teorii. Na ot\u00e1zku, pro\u010d Washington sou\u010dasn\u011b eskaluji proti \u00cdr\u00e1nu, \u00fato\u010d\u00ed na \u010c\u00ednu, diskutuje o nov\u00fdch operac\u00edch proti Kub\u011b a otev\u00edr\u00e1 dal\u0161\u00ed glob\u00e1ln\u00ed fronty, odpov\u00edd\u00e1, \u017ee existuje pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b jen jedno logick\u00e9 vysv\u011btlen\u00ed:<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">\u201eVypo\u010d\u00edtan\u00e1 imploze glob\u00e1ln\u00ed ekonomiky\u201c.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Escobar tento p\u0159edpoklad v\u00fdslovn\u011b prezentuje jako sv\u00e9 vlastn\u00ed hodnocen\u00ed, a nikoli jako prok\u00e1zan\u00fd fakt. Uv\u00e1d\u00ed v\u0161ak, \u017ee podobn\u00e9 \u00favahy sly\u0161el od dob\u0159e informovan\u00fdch kontakt\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Jeho tez\u00ed je, \u017ee \u010d\u00e1sti americk\u00e9 mocensk\u00e9 elity mohly dosp\u011bt k z\u00e1v\u011bru, \u017ee ekonomick\u00fd a geopolitick\u00fd \u00fapadek USA ji\u017e nelze zastavit.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Z tohoto pohledu by kontrolovan\u00e1 nebo z\u00e1m\u011brn\u011b vytvo\u0159en\u00e1 glob\u00e1ln\u00ed krize mohla b\u00fdt vyu\u017eita k devalvaci neudr\u017eiteln\u00fdch dluh\u016f, reorganizaci finan\u010dn\u00edch struktur a n\u00e1sledn\u00e9mu vybudov\u00e1n\u00ed nov\u00e9ho syst\u00e9mu.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">V t\u00e9to souvislosti Escobar hovo\u0159\u00ed o nov\u00e9m v\u00fdznamu \u201eVelk\u00e9ho resetu\u201c: nikoli o uspo\u0159\u00e1dan\u00e9 restrukturalizaci syst\u00e9mu, ale v prvn\u00ed \u0159ad\u011b o jeho c\u00edlen\u00e9m zni\u010den\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Formuluje p\u0159edstavitelnou logiku takto: Pokud st\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00ed \u0159\u00e1d nelze stejn\u011b zachr\u00e1nit, lze jej \u00fapln\u011b zni\u010dit, u\u0161et\u0159it ur\u010dit\u00e9 zisky, zbavit se dluh\u016f a pak se pokusit o nov\u00fd za\u010d\u00e1tek.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Tato teorie z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 spekulativn\u00ed. Ukazuje v\u0161ak, jak Escobar interpretuje zd\u00e1nliv\u011b protich\u016fdnou americkou zahrani\u010dn\u00ed politiku.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span dir=\"auto\">Trump jako posel, ne jako osoba s rozhodovac\u00ed pravomoc\u00ed<\/span><\/h2>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Escobar nepova\u017euje Donalda Trumpa za skute\u010dn\u00e9ho architekta t\u00e9to strategie.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Trump, tvrdil, byl pouze poslem a ve\u0159ejn\u00fdm n\u00e1strojem mocn\u011bj\u0161\u00edch z\u00e1jm\u016f. Skute\u010dn\u00e1 rozhodnut\u00ed byla podle jeho n\u00e1zoru \u010din\u011bna v r\u00e1mci s\u00edt\u011b zpravodajsk\u00fdch slu\u017eeb, finan\u010dn\u00edch elit, vojensko-pr\u016fmyslov\u00e9ho komplexu a zako\u0159en\u011bn\u00fdch st\u00e1tn\u00edch mocensk\u00fdch struktur.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Hlavn\u00edm c\u00edlem je neutralizovat t\u0159i st\u00e1ty, kter\u00e9 jsou ve Washingtonu pova\u017eov\u00e1ny za existen\u010dn\u00ed hrozby:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span dir=\"auto\">Rusko,<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span dir=\"auto\">\u010c\u00edna,<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span dir=\"auto\">\u00cdr\u00e1n.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Tyto t\u0159i st\u00e1ty jsou st\u00e1le v\u00edce propojeny strategick\u00fdmi partnerstv\u00edmi.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Rusko p\u0159edstavuje vojenskou a jadernou mocnost. \u010c\u00edna p\u0159edstavuje nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed geoekonomickou v\u00fdzvu. \u00cdr\u00e1n ovl\u00e1d\u00e1 kl\u00ed\u010dovou geostrategickou pozici v z\u00e1padn\u00ed Asii a pod\u00e9l kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fdch energetick\u00fdch a obchodn\u00edch tras.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">P\u0159\u00edm\u00e1 v\u00e1lka proti v\u0161em t\u0159em by byla nekontrolovateln\u00e1. Washington se je proto sna\u017e\u00ed oslabit prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm z\u00e1stupn\u00fdch v\u00e1lek, sankc\u00ed, politick\u00e9 destabilizace, informa\u010dn\u00edch kampan\u00ed a c\u00edlen\u00fdch vojensk\u00fdch \u00fatok\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span dir=\"auto\">V\u00e1lka proti \u00cdr\u00e1nu jako v\u00e1lka proti BRICS<\/span><\/h2>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Escobar ost\u0159e kritizuje zem\u011b BRICS. P\u0159esto\u017ee je \u00cdr\u00e1n plnohodnotn\u00fdm \u010dlenem skupiny, na \u00fatoky nedo\u0161lo k \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 rozhodn\u00e9 spole\u010dn\u00e9 reakci.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Bombardov\u00e1n\u00ed \u010cabah\u00e1ru nezasahuje pouze \u00edr\u00e1nskou infrastrukturu. Vzhledem k tomu, \u017ee p\u0159\u00edstav je sou\u010d\u00e1st\u00ed Severoji\u017en\u00edho koridoru, je \u00fatok nam\u00ed\u0159en tak\u00e9 proti Rusku a Indii. Prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm jeho vazeb na iniciativu P\u00e1s a stezka je posti\u017eena i \u010c\u00edna.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">To by v podstat\u011b znamenalo, \u017ee by bylo napadeno n\u011bkolik st\u00e1t\u016f BRICS sou\u010dasn\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Escobar ozna\u010dil dosavadn\u00ed reakci skupiny za slabou a zklam\u00e1n\u00edm. BRICS by ve skute\u010dnosti m\u011bla vytvo\u0159it syst\u00e9m, kter\u00fd ochr\u00e1n\u00ed jej\u00ed \u010dleny ekonomicky i politicky p\u0159ed tlakem Z\u00e1padu.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">To zahrnovalo alternativn\u00ed platebn\u00ed syst\u00e9my, obchod v n\u00e1rodn\u00edch m\u011bn\u00e1ch a dopravn\u00ed trasy mimo z\u00e1padn\u00ed kontrolu.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Pracuje se na tom, ale p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 pomalu.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span dir=\"auto\">Konec petrodolar\u016f<\/span><\/h2>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Escobar vn\u00edm\u00e1 v\u00e1lku jako z\u00e1sadn\u00ed konflikt o glob\u00e1ln\u00ed finan\u010dn\u00ed \u0159\u00e1d.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">St\u00e1le v\u00edce zem\u00ed se sna\u017e\u00ed obchodovat mimo dolar. \u010c\u00edna internacionalizuje j\u00fcan. Rusko, \u00cdr\u00e1n a dal\u0161\u00ed zem\u011b st\u00e1le \u010dast\u011bji pou\u017e\u00edvaj\u00ed n\u00e1rodn\u00ed m\u011bny. V zem\u00edch BRICS prob\u00edhaj\u00ed diskuse o multilater\u00e1ln\u00edch platebn\u00edch syst\u00e9mech, digit\u00e1ln\u00edch z\u00fa\u010dtovac\u00edch jednotk\u00e1ch a nov\u00fdch obchodn\u00edch mechanismech.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Petrodolar byl po desetilet\u00ed \u00fast\u0159edn\u00edm pil\u00ed\u0159em americk\u00e9 moci. Dokud se s ropou bude po cel\u00e9m sv\u011bt\u011b obchodovat p\u0159ev\u00e1\u017en\u011b v dolarech, bude po americk\u00e9 m\u011bn\u011b existovat obrovsk\u00e1 mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed popt\u00e1vka.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Pokud hlavn\u00ed v\u00fdvozci a dovozci energie za\u010dnou vypo\u0159\u00e1d\u00e1vat transakce s ropou a plynem v jin\u00fdch m\u011bn\u00e1ch, Washington ztrat\u00ed kl\u00ed\u010dovou ekonomickou v\u00fdhodu.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Escobar proto \u00fatoky na \u00cdr\u00e1n pova\u017euje za pokus o obranu petrodolarov\u00e9ho syst\u00e9mu.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">\u00cdr\u00e1n nen\u00ed jen v\u00fdznamn\u00fdm producentem energie. Zem\u011b le\u017e\u00ed tak\u00e9 na kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fdch obchodn\u00edch tras\u00e1ch mezi Asi\u00ed, Evropou, Ruskem, Indick\u00fdm oce\u00e1nem a Persk\u00fdm z\u00e1livem.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Z tohoto pohledu p\u0159edstavuje suver\u00e9nn\u00ed \u00cdr\u00e1n, kter\u00fd \u00fazce spolupracuje s Ruskem a \u010c\u00ednou, p\u0159\u00edmou hrozbu pro finan\u010dn\u00ed a obchodn\u00ed \u0159\u00e1d ovl\u00e1dan\u00fd Z\u00e1padem.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span dir=\"auto\">Euroasijskou integraci u\u017e nelze zastavit.<\/span><\/h2>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Escobar popisuje ekonomickou integraci Eurasie jako vlak, kter\u00fd ji\u017e opustil stanici.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">\u010c\u00edna, Rusko, \u00cdr\u00e1n, P\u00e1kist\u00e1n a \u0159ada st\u0159edoasijsk\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f jsou st\u00e1le v\u00edce propojeny \u017eeleznicemi, p\u0159\u00edstavy, ropovody, silnicemi a platebn\u00edmi syst\u00e9my.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty mohly odkl\u00e1dat jednotliv\u00e9 projekty, vyv\u00edjet tlak na st\u00e1ty a ni\u010dit infrastrukturu. Celkov\u00fd proces v\u0161ak ji\u017e nemohly zcela zastavit.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Americk\u00e1 p\u0159\u00edtomnost v Eurasii dlouhodob\u011b kles\u00e1. Zat\u00edmco USA si udr\u017euj\u00ed silnou vojenskou p\u0159\u00edtomnost v Japonsku, Ji\u017en\u00ed Koreji a n\u011bkolika dal\u0161\u00edch zem\u00edch, vliv Ruska a \u010c\u00edny roste ve St\u0159edn\u00ed Asii, z\u00e1padn\u00ed Asii a velk\u00fdch \u010d\u00e1stech ji\u017en\u00ed Asie.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Mnoho st\u00e1t\u016f glob\u00e1ln\u00edho Jihu proto nepova\u017euje v\u00e1lku proti \u00cdr\u00e1nu za izolovan\u00fd konflikt. Vn\u00edmaj\u00ed ji jako v\u00e1lku proti ekonomick\u00e9 emancipaci glob\u00e1ln\u00edho Jihu a proti BRICS.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span dir=\"auto\">\u010c\u00edna jako neviditeln\u00fd prost\u0159edn\u00edk<\/span><\/h2>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Dal\u0161\u00edm t\u00e9matem rozhovoru je role \u010c\u00edny v z\u00e1kulis\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Peking m\u00e1 siln\u00fd z\u00e1jem na stabiln\u00edch vztaz\u00edch mezi \u00cdr\u00e1nem, Sa\u00fadskou Ar\u00e1bi\u00ed a P\u00e1kist\u00e1nem. \u010c\u00edna dov\u00e1\u017e\u00ed velk\u00e9 mno\u017estv\u00ed ropy ze Sa\u00fadsk\u00e9 Ar\u00e1bie a plyn a dal\u0161\u00ed energetick\u00e9 produkty z \u00cdr\u00e1nu.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">P\u00e1kist\u00e1n je z\u00e1rove\u0148 \u00fazce integrov\u00e1n do iniciativy P\u00e1s a stezka prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm \u010d\u00ednsko-p\u00e1kist\u00e1nsk\u00e9ho ekonomick\u00e9ho koridoru.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Podle Escobara sbl\u00ed\u017een\u00ed mezi Sa\u00fadskou Ar\u00e1bi\u00ed a \u00cdr\u00e1nem zpo\u010d\u00e1tku za\u010dalo za rusk\u00e9ho zprost\u0159edkov\u00e1n\u00ed. Moskva vedla odd\u011blen\u00e1 jedn\u00e1n\u00ed s ob\u011bma stranami a pot\u00e9 p\u0159edala diplomatick\u00fd m\u00ed\u010d \u010c\u00edn\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Peking nakonec proces ve\u0159ejn\u011b uzav\u0159el a zprost\u0159edkoval obnoven\u00ed diplomatick\u00fdch vztah\u016f mezi Rij\u00e1dem a Teher\u00e1nem.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">\u010c\u00edna chce v z\u00e1padn\u00ed Asii p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm stabilitu, voln\u00fd obchod a bezpe\u010dn\u00e9 dopravn\u00ed trasy.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">V\u00e1lka proti \u00cdr\u00e1nu a nejasn\u00fd postoj Sa\u00fadsk\u00e9 Ar\u00e1bie nyn\u00ed ohro\u017euj\u00ed roky diplomatick\u00e9 pr\u00e1ce.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span dir=\"auto\">P\u00e1kist\u00e1n mezi \u00cdr\u00e1nem a Sa\u00fadskou Ar\u00e1bi\u00ed<\/span><\/h2>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">P\u00e1kist\u00e1n je v obzvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b obt\u00ed\u017en\u00e9 situaci.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Zem\u011b udr\u017euje \u00fazk\u00e9 vazby s \u00cdr\u00e1nem a t\u011b\u017e\u00ed z p\u0159eshrani\u010dn\u00edho obchodu. Z\u00e1rove\u0148 m\u00e1 vojenskou alianci se Sa\u00fadskou Ar\u00e1bi\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">N\u00e1\u010deln\u00edk p\u00e1kist\u00e1nsk\u00e9 arm\u00e1dy \u00c1sim Munir nav\u0161t\u00edvil Rij\u00e1d kr\u00e1tce p\u0159ed novou eskalac\u00ed a hovo\u0159il s korunn\u00edm princem Muhammadem bin Salm\u00e1nem o prohlouben\u00ed vojensk\u00e9 spolupr\u00e1ce.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Podle rozhovoru tato aliance obsahuje bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed z\u00e1ruky, kter\u00e9 by mohly \u00fatok na Sa\u00fadskou Ar\u00e1bii pova\u017eovat za \u00fatok na P\u00e1kist\u00e1n.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">\u00cdr\u00e1n zase podle Escobarova hodnocen\u00ed v sou\u010dasn\u00e9 dob\u011b nehodl\u00e1 \u00fato\u010dit na Sa\u00fadskou Ar\u00e1bii. Teher\u00e1n v\u0161ak po\u017eaduje objasn\u011bn\u00ed, zda Rij\u00e1d jedn\u00e1 v\u00fdhradn\u011b proti Jemenu, nebo zda mo\u017en\u00e1 hraje dvoj\u00ed hru a op\u011bt se pod\u00edl\u00ed na americk\u00fdch \u00fatoc\u00edch na \u00cdr\u00e1n.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">P\u00e1kist\u00e1n proto mus\u00ed ob\u011b strany ujistit, \u017ee se konflikt nevymkne kontrole.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Escobar uv\u00e1d\u00ed nepotvrzen\u00e9 informace, \u017ee Isl\u00e1m\u00e1b\u00e1d ji\u017e vyzval Sa\u00fady k odstoupen\u00ed, proto\u017ee dal\u0161\u00ed eskalace by mohla \u201ev\u0161echno vyhodit do pov\u011bt\u0159\u00ed\u201c.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span dir=\"auto\">Boj o moc v Sa\u00fadsk\u00e9 Ar\u00e1bii?<\/span><\/h2>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Escobar se domn\u00edv\u00e1, \u017ee je mo\u017en\u00e9, \u017ee sa\u00fadsk\u00e9 akce nebyly zcela pod kontrolou korunn\u00edho prince Mohammeda bin Salm\u00e1na.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Podle p\u00e1kist\u00e1nsk\u00fdch medi\u00e1tor\u016f MBS podporoval snahy o dosa\u017een\u00ed dohody s \u00cdr\u00e1nem. \u00datok na San&#8217;\u00e1 by proto mohl b\u00fdt tak\u00e9 projevem vnit\u0159n\u00edch mocensk\u00fdch boj\u016f uvnit\u0159 sa\u00fadsk\u00e9ho re\u017eimu.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Existuj\u00ed akt\u00e9\u0159i uvnit\u0159 i vn\u011b kr\u00e1lovsk\u00fdch mocensk\u00fdch kruh\u016f, kte\u0159\u00ed jsou v\u016f\u010di korunn\u00edmu princi nep\u0159\u00e1tel\u0161t\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Vojensk\u00fd krok, kter\u00fd sabotuje diplomatick\u00e9 sbl\u00ed\u017een\u00ed s \u00cdr\u00e1nem, mohl b\u00fdt proto tak\u00e9 \u00fatokem na politiku MBS.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Escobar v\u0161ak zd\u016fraz\u0148uje, \u017ee tato mo\u017enost nebyla potvrzena. Chov\u00e1n\u00ed Sa\u00fadsk\u00e9 Ar\u00e1bie z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 v dob\u011b rozhovoru do zna\u010dn\u00e9 m\u00edry nevysv\u011btliteln\u00e9.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span dir=\"auto\">Ansarallah se rozhoduje s\u00e1m<\/span><\/h2>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Escobar kritizuje z\u00e1padn\u00ed m\u00e9dia za to, \u017ee Ansarall\u00e1h v Jemenu \u010dasto zobrazuj\u00ed pouze jako \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9ho z\u00e1stupce.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Zpr\u00e1vy o tom, \u017ee jemensk\u00e9 s\u00edly \u010dekaly pouze na rozkaz z Teher\u00e1nu k uzav\u0159en\u00ed Bab al-Mandab, jsou nepravdiv\u00e9.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">\u0158ekl, \u017ee osobn\u011b hovo\u0159il s \u010dleny politick\u00e9 rady Ansarall\u00e1hu. Rozhodnut\u00ed byla u\u010din\u011bna v r\u00e1mci jemensk\u00e9ho veden\u00ed a nebyla pouze diktov\u00e1na \u00cdr\u00e1nem.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">\u00cdr\u00e1n a Ansarall\u00e1h jsou spojenci, ale Jemenci jednaj\u00ed nez\u00e1visle.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Uzav\u0159en\u00ed Bab al-Mandabu je v San\u00e1 vn\u00edm\u00e1no jako kone\u010dn\u00fd prost\u0159edek k vyv\u00edjen\u00ed tlaku \u2013 srovnateln\u00fd se strategickou \u201ejadernou mo\u017enost\u00ed\u201c.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Okam\u017eit\u00e1 a \u00fapln\u00e1 blok\u00e1da proto nen\u00ed bezpodm\u00edne\u010dn\u011b nutn\u00e1. Nicm\u00e9n\u011b je t\u0159eba o\u010dek\u00e1vat reakci po \u00fatoku na leti\u0161t\u011b v San\u00e1.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span dir=\"auto\">V\u0161echno vis\u00ed na vl\u00e1sku<\/span><\/h2>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Na konci rozhovoru Escobar varuje p\u0159ed extr\u00e9mn\u011b nebezpe\u010dn\u00fdm okam\u017eikem.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Cel\u00e1 region\u00e1ln\u00ed media\u010dn\u00ed s\u00ed\u0165 mezi \u00cdr\u00e1nem, Sa\u00fadskou Ar\u00e1bi\u00ed, P\u00e1kist\u00e1nem, \u010c\u00ednou, Om\u00e1nem, Katarem a Tureckem vis\u00ed na vl\u00e1sku.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Jedin\u00e9 \u0161patn\u00e9 rozhodnut\u00ed by mohlo zcela zhatit diplomatick\u00e9 \u00fasil\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">\u00datok na San&#8217;\u00e1 m\u011bl p\u0159esn\u011b tento potenci\u00e1l. Pokud by Sa\u00fadsk\u00e1 Ar\u00e1bie d\u00e1le eskalaovala, Ansarall\u00e1h by mohl uzav\u0159\u00edt Bab al-Mandab. \u00cdr\u00e1n by mohl masivn\u011b roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159it sv\u00e9 \u00fatoky na p\u0159\u00edstavy, energetick\u00e1 centra a strategick\u00e9 dopravn\u00ed trasy st\u00e1t\u016f Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty by zase mohly reagovat obnoven\u00edm bombardov\u00e1n\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">V\u00e1lka proti \u00cdr\u00e1nu by se pak stala region\u00e1ln\u00edm po\u017e\u00e1rem, kter\u00fd by p\u0159\u00edmo ohro\u017eoval glob\u00e1ln\u00ed dod\u00e1vky energie a sv\u011btov\u00fd obchod.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span dir=\"auto\">Z\u00e1v\u011br: Washington bombarduje star\u00fd \u0159\u00e1d \u2013 a urychluje nastolen\u00ed nov\u00e9ho<\/span><\/h2>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Anal\u00fdza Pepeho Escobara vykresluje obraz v\u00e1lky, jej\u00ed\u017e v\u00fdznam sah\u00e1 daleko za hranice \u00cdr\u00e1nu, Izraele a Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">\u00datok na \u010cabah\u00e1r je proto nam\u00ed\u0159en proti nov\u00fdm euroasijsk\u00fdm obchodn\u00edm tras\u00e1m. Bombardov\u00e1n\u00ed \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fdch most\u016f a p\u0159\u00edstav\u016f m\u00e1 za c\u00edl ekonomicky izolovat zemi. \u00cdr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 \u00fatoky na Bahrajn, Fud\u017eajru a most kr\u00e1le Fahda v\u0161ak ukazuj\u00ed, \u017ee i teher\u00e1n\u0161t\u00ed protivn\u00edci disponuj\u00ed vysoce zranitelnou infrastrukturou.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">\u00cdr\u00e1nsk\u00e1 reakce byla zat\u00edm kontrolovan\u00e1, ale st\u00e1le tvrd\u0161\u00ed. \u00cdr\u00e1n tak prokazuje svou schopnost dos\u00e1hnout kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fdch energetick\u00fdch a obchodn\u00edch center Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Pokud by byly Hormuz a Bab al-Mandab zablokov\u00e1ny sou\u010dasn\u011b, konflikt by mohl vyvolat glob\u00e1ln\u00ed ekonomick\u00fd \u0161ok.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Escobarovo \u00fast\u0159edn\u00ed poselstv\u00ed zn\u00ed takto: USA se sna\u017e\u00ed vojensky zastavit vzestup nov\u00e9ho eurasijsk\u00e9ho \u0159\u00e1du. S ka\u017ed\u00fdm \u00fatokem na p\u0159\u00edstavy, \u017eeleznice, mosty a obchodn\u00ed trasy by v\u0161ak mohly urychlovat pr\u00e1v\u011b ten proces, kter\u00e9mu cht\u011bj\u00ed zabr\u00e1nit.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">\u010c\u00edna, Rusko, \u00cdr\u00e1n a P\u00e1kist\u00e1n se v d\u016fsledku vn\u011bj\u0161\u00edho tlaku st\u00e1le v\u00edce propojuj\u00ed. Alternativn\u00ed dopravn\u00ed trasy nab\u00fdvaj\u00ed na v\u00fdznamu. Obchod v n\u00e1rodn\u00edch m\u011bn\u00e1ch roste. Petrodolar postupn\u011b ztr\u00e1c\u00ed vliv.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Washington m\u016f\u017ee zni\u010dit infrastrukturu. Ale nem\u016f\u017ee trvale bombardov\u00e1n\u00edm odstranit geografickou, ekonomickou a politickou reorganizaci Eurasie.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-1185\" src=\"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/kuryr-podpis.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"84\" height=\"24\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>V rozs\u00e1hl\u00e9m rozhovoru s politick\u00fdm koment\u00e1torem Dannym Haiphongem analyzuje brazilsk\u00fd novin\u00e1\u0159 a geopolitick\u00fd expert Pepe&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":111100,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,1161,38,37,40],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/111099"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=111099"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/111099\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/111100"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=111099"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=111099"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=111099"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}