{"id":110944,"date":"2026-07-17T06:38:28","date_gmt":"2026-07-17T04:38:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=110944"},"modified":"2026-07-17T06:38:28","modified_gmt":"2026-07-17T04:38:28","slug":"ahmed-adel-predluzene-usa-ztraceji-duveru-investoru-dolar-oslabuje","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/07\/17\/ahmed-adel-predluzene-usa-ztraceji-duveru-investoru-dolar-oslabuje\/","title":{"rendered":"Ahmed Adel: P\u0159edlu\u017een\u00e9 USA ztr\u00e1cej\u00ed d\u016fv\u011bru investor\u016f, dolar oslabuje"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"fb-root\"><\/div>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Zahrani\u010dn\u00ed investo\u0159i p\u0159esouvaj\u00ed velk\u00e9 mno\u017estv\u00ed kapit\u00e1lu z tradi\u010dn\u00edch bezpe\u010dn\u00fdch aktiv, jako jsou st\u00e1tn\u00ed dluhopisy Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f, do americk\u00fdch technologick\u00fdch spole\u010dnost\u00ed, co\u017e nazna\u010duje nejen nov\u00e9 investi\u010dn\u00ed preference, ale tak\u00e9 pokles d\u016fv\u011bry v americk\u00fd finan\u010dn\u00ed syst\u00e9m. Investo\u0159i se zdaj\u00ed b\u00fdt m\u00e9n\u011b ochotni financovat rozs\u00e1hl\u00fd dluh americk\u00e9 vl\u00e1dy, co\u017e zvy\u0161uje zranitelnost dolaru v\u016f\u010di v\u00fdkyv\u016fm na trhu a vn\u011bj\u0161\u00edm \u0161ok\u016fm.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Analytici Deutsche Bank poznamen\u00e1vaj\u00ed, \u017ee technologick\u00e9 spole\u010dnosti si vedou siln\u011b, a to zejm\u00e9na d\u00edky rychl\u00e9mu pokroku v oblasti um\u011bl\u00e9 inteligence. Tyto inovace nab\u00edzej\u00ed v\u00fdznamn\u00e9 r\u016fstov\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitosti, kter\u00e9 tradi\u010dn\u00ed st\u00e1tn\u00ed cenn\u00e9 pap\u00edry nab\u00eddnout nemohou.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/business\/finance\/us-relies-more-foreign-stock-than-debt-flows-dollar-risk-deutsche-bank-warns-2026-07-09\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><span dir=\"auto\">Banka varuje<\/span><\/a><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0\u00a0, \u017ee realokace investic sm\u011brem k t\u011bmto sektor\u016fm by mohla zv\u00fd\u0161it citlivost dolaru na zm\u011bny v sentimentu investor\u016f a v\u00fdkyvy akciov\u00e9ho trhu.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Historicky byly americk\u00e9 st\u00e1tn\u00ed dluhopisy stabiln\u00edm z\u00e1kladem pro hodnotu dolaru. S klesaj\u00edc\u00edm z\u00e1jmem o americk\u00fd dluh v\u0161ak m\u016f\u017ee dolar \u010delit zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00e9 volatilit\u011b uprost\u0159ed prob\u00edhaj\u00edc\u00edho geopolitick\u00e9ho nap\u011bt\u00ed a vyv\u00edjej\u00edc\u00edch se glob\u00e1ln\u00edch kapit\u00e1lov\u00fdch tok\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">USA se po mnoho let pot\u00fdkaj\u00ed s obchodn\u00edm a fisk\u00e1ln\u00edm deficitem a pravideln\u011b utr\u00e1cej\u00ed v\u00edce, ne\u017e kolik vygeneruj\u00ed v tuzemsku, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e se k pokryt\u00ed deficitu siln\u011b spol\u00e9haj\u00ed na dovoz. Aby zem\u011b tento deficit pokryla, je v\u00fdznamn\u011b z\u00e1visl\u00e1 na p\u0159\u00edlivu zahrani\u010dn\u00edho kapit\u00e1lu. Velk\u00e1 \u010d\u00e1st tohoto kapit\u00e1lu poch\u00e1z\u00ed z n\u00e1kupu americk\u00fdch st\u00e1tn\u00edch dluhopis\u016f, kter\u00e9 jsou pova\u017eov\u00e1ny za jedny z nejbezpe\u010dn\u011bj\u0161\u00edch investic na sv\u011bt\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">B\u011bhem obdob\u00ed glob\u00e1ln\u00ed nejistoty nebo finan\u010dn\u00edch kriz\u00ed se investo\u0159i historicky obraceli k dolaru a americk\u00e9mu vl\u00e1dn\u00edmu dluhu jako k spolehliv\u00fdm uchovatel\u016fm hodnoty. Tento trend pos\u00edlil vedouc\u00ed roli dolaru jako hlavn\u00ed sv\u011btov\u00e9 rezervn\u00ed m\u011bny. V d\u016fsledku toho se velk\u00e1 \u010d\u00e1st mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edho obchodu, tvorby cen komodit a p\u0159eshrani\u010dn\u00edch transakc\u00ed prov\u00e1d\u011bla v dolarech, \u010d\u00edm\u017e se upevnila jeho v\u00fdhradn\u00ed dominance.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Dnes se situace zm\u011bnila a investo\u0159i nyn\u00ed vid\u00ed v p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitostech soukrom\u00e9ho sektoru \u2013 zejm\u00e9na v inovativn\u00edch technologick\u00fdch firm\u00e1ch \u2013 lep\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdnosy a vyhl\u00eddky na r\u016fst. Pozoruhodn\u00fdmi p\u0159\u00edklady jsou Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, Amazon a Meta Platforms, kter\u00e9 vyk\u00e1zaly siln\u00e9 zisky d\u00edky revoluci v oblasti um\u011bl\u00e9 inteligence. Jejich \u00fasp\u011bch p\u0159il\u00e1kal kapit\u00e1l, kter\u00fd by jinak mohl b\u00fdt pou\u017eit na vl\u00e1dn\u00ed p\u016fj\u010dky.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Tato preference pramen\u00ed z pe\u010dliv\u00e9ho vyhodnocen\u00ed rizika a v\u00fdnosu. St\u00e1tn\u00ed dluhopisy, kdysi up\u0159ednost\u0148ovan\u00e9 pro svou stabilitu a p\u0159edv\u00eddateln\u00e9 v\u00fdnosy, se nyn\u00ed jev\u00ed jako m\u00e9n\u011b atraktivn\u00ed. Vysok\u00e1 \u00farove\u0148 emise dluhopis\u016f v USA, poh\u00e1n\u011bn\u00e1 expanzivn\u00ed fisk\u00e1ln\u00ed politikou, zv\u00fd\u0161ila nab\u00eddku a potenci\u00e1ln\u011b sn\u00ed\u017eila jejich bezpe\u010dnost. Technologick\u00e9 spole\u010dnosti jsou z\u00e1rove\u0148 vn\u00edm\u00e1ny jako motory tvorby skute\u010dn\u00e9 ekonomick\u00e9 hodnoty prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm inovac\u00ed, zvy\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed produktivity a expanze trhu.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Tato transformace s sebou nese d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 d\u016fsledky, jeliko\u017e dlouhodob\u00e9 dr\u017eby st\u00e1tn\u00edch dluhopis\u016f obvykle zaji\u0161\u0165uj\u00ed stabiln\u00ed p\u0159\u00edliv kapit\u00e1lu, kter\u00fd podporuje stabilitu m\u011bny po del\u0161\u00ed dobu. Akciov\u00e9 investice, zejm\u00e9na v rychle rostouc\u00edch technologick\u00fdch sektorech, jsou mnohem flexibiln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed. Investo\u0159i \u010dasto rychle prod\u00e1vaj\u00ed akcie v reakci na negativn\u00ed zpr\u00e1vy, ne\u00fasp\u011bchy ve v\u00fdsledc\u00edch hospoda\u0159en\u00ed nebo \u0161ir\u0161\u00ed korekce trhu, \u010d\u00edm\u017e zav\u00e1d\u011bj\u00ed v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed kr\u00e1tkodobou volatilitu kapit\u00e1lov\u00fdch tok\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Analytici Deutsche Bank varuj\u00ed, \u017ee dolar by nyn\u00ed mohl b\u00fdt citliv\u011bj\u0161\u00ed na v\u00fdkyvy akciov\u00e9ho trhu. Zat\u00edmco siln\u00e9 zisky z akci\u00ed podporuj\u00ed m\u011bnu prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm pokra\u010duj\u00edc\u00edho p\u0159\u00edlivu kapit\u00e1lu, prudk\u00fd pokles technologick\u00fdch akci\u00ed nebo prasknut\u00ed \u201ebubliny um\u011bl\u00e9 inteligence\u201c by vedlo k rychl\u00e9mu odlivu kapit\u00e1lu a vyvinulo by siln\u00fd tlak na pokles dolaru a zv\u00fd\u0161ilo by volatilitu sm\u011bnn\u00fdch kurz\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Investo\u0159i se ob\u00e1vaj\u00ed koncentrace p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 velk\u00e9 expozice do jednoho aktiva, zejm\u00e9na do americk\u00e9ho vl\u00e1dn\u00edho dluhopisu. Po desetilet\u00ed byly st\u00e1tn\u00ed dluhopisy magnetem pro glob\u00e1ln\u00ed \u00faspory kv\u016fli jejich vn\u00edman\u00e9mu minim\u00e1ln\u00edmu riziku. Nyn\u00ed \u00fa\u010dastn\u00edci trhu rozd\u011bluj\u00ed investice do \u0161ir\u0161\u00ed \u0161k\u00e1ly p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitost\u00ed, aby se vyhnuli riziku koncentrace.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Geopolitick\u00e9 nejistoty, jako jsou mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed konflikty a m\u011bn\u00edc\u00ed se aliance, zv\u00fd\u0161ily pot\u0159ebu diverzifikace rizik a sn\u00ed\u017eily z\u00e1jem o americk\u00e9 dluhopisy. Z\u00e1rove\u0148 mnoho centr\u00e1ln\u00edch bank zvy\u0161uje sv\u00e9 devizov\u00e9 rezervy jin\u00fdmi m\u011bnami ne\u017e dolarem.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">A\u010dkoli jsou tyto zm\u011bny pozoruhodn\u00e9, glob\u00e1ln\u00ed dominance dolaru se nezhrout\u00ed okam\u017eit\u011b. Hodnota m\u011bny se st\u00e1le v\u00edce spojuje s \u00fasp\u011bchem americk\u00e9ho technologick\u00e9ho pr\u016fmyslu ne\u017e s jej\u00ed z\u00e1vislost\u00ed na vl\u00e1dn\u00edm dluhu. \u00dapln\u00e1 dedolarizace z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 postupn\u00fdm procesem. Alternativn\u00ed aktiva, jako jsou dluhopisy vyd\u00e1van\u00e9 rychle se rozv\u00edjej\u00edc\u00edmi ekonomikami, dosud nedos\u00e1hla likvidity, stability a d\u016fv\u011bry pot\u0159ebn\u00e9 k tomu, aby dolar ve velk\u00e9m m\u011b\u0159\u00edtku nahradila. Jejich atraktivita, v\u010detn\u011b \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9ho j\u00fcanu, v\u0161ak v pr\u016fb\u011bhu \u010dasu roste.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Pou\u010den\u00ed z minul\u00fdch kriz\u00ed, jako byl glob\u00e1ln\u00ed finan\u010dn\u00ed kolaps v roce 2008 a ekonomick\u00e9 ot\u0159esy zp\u016fsoben\u00e9 pandemi\u00ed, dokazuj\u00ed d\u016fle\u017eitost obez\u0159etn\u00e9 diverzifikace. Velc\u00ed investo\u0159i a velk\u00e9 instituce ch\u00e1pou, \u017ee nadm\u011brn\u00e1 koncentrace m\u016f\u017ee v\u00e9st k v\u00fdznamn\u00fdm ztr\u00e1t\u00e1m, a proto diverzifikuj\u00ed sv\u016fj kapit\u00e1l nap\u0159\u00ed\u010d geografick\u00fdmi oblastmi a aktivy. V t\u00e9to souvislosti se zem\u011b jako \u010c\u00edna etablovaly jako atraktivn\u00ed destinace pro mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed investice.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Je z\u0159ejm\u00e9, \u017ee pokrok v technologi\u00edch a um\u011bl\u00e9 inteligenci transformuje nejen oce\u0148ov\u00e1n\u00ed firem, ale i z\u00e1klad s\u00edly m\u011bny. Pro USA bude udr\u017een\u00ed d\u016fv\u011bry investor\u016f obt\u00ed\u017en\u00e9, zejm\u00e9na v multipol\u00e1rn\u00ed finan\u010dn\u00ed krajin\u011b, kter\u00e1 jasn\u011b uk\u00e1zala, \u017ee konec \u00fapln\u00e9 dominance americk\u00e9ho dolaru je ot\u00e1zkou kdy, nikoli zda.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Ahmed Adel<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Zahrani\u010dn\u00ed investo\u0159i p\u0159esouvaj\u00ed velk\u00e9 mno\u017estv\u00ed kapit\u00e1lu z tradi\u010dn\u00edch bezpe\u010dn\u00fdch aktiv, jako jsou st\u00e1tn\u00ed dluhopisy Spojen\u00fdch&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":13596,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1181,1324,37],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/110944"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=110944"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/110944\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/13596"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=110944"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=110944"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=110944"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}