{"id":110815,"date":"2026-07-16T00:22:16","date_gmt":"2026-07-15T22:22:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=110815"},"modified":"2026-07-15T11:49:13","modified_gmt":"2026-07-15T09:49:13","slug":"vedeli-co-se-stane-blokada-hormuzskeho-prulivu-byla-soucasti-valecnych-scenaru-usa-po-cela-desetileti","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/07\/16\/vedeli-co-se-stane-blokada-hormuzskeho-prulivu-byla-soucasti-valecnych-scenaru-usa-po-cela-desetileti\/","title":{"rendered":"V\u011bd\u011bli, co se stane: Blok\u00e1da Hormuzsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu byla sou\u010d\u00e1st\u00ed v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00fdch sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159\u016f USA po cel\u00e1 desetilet\u00ed"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"fb-root\"><\/div>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><span dir=\"auto\">Kdy\u017e Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty zah\u00e1jily vojensk\u00fd \u00fatok na \u00cdr\u00e1n, nikoho ve Washingtonu nemohlo v\u00e1\u017en\u011b p\u0159ekvapit, \u017ee Teher\u00e1n vyu\u017eije Hormuzsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv a region\u00e1ln\u00ed energetick\u00e9 trasy jako protiopat\u0159en\u00ed.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Nebezpe\u010d\u00ed nebylo \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fdm tajemstv\u00edm. Koment\u00e1to\u0159i ho neobjevili a\u017e po za\u010d\u00e1tku v\u00e1lky. Americk\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 akademie, vl\u00e1dn\u00ed agentury, n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed \u010dasopisy a v\u00fdzkumn\u00e9 \u00fastavy studovaly tento sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 po cel\u00e1 desetilet\u00ed: V\u00e1lka proti \u00cdr\u00e1nu by mohla vyvolat \u00fatoky na tankery, zaminov\u00e1n\u00ed n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00edch tras, \u00fatoky na ropn\u00e1 za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed, zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed pojistn\u00e9ho a \u010d\u00e1ste\u010dn\u00e9 nebo \u00fapln\u00e9 naru\u0161en\u00ed lodn\u00ed dopravy Hormuzsk\u00fdm pr\u016flivem.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Ka\u017ed\u00fd, kdo pl\u00e1nuje takovou v\u00e1lku, do sv\u00fdch pl\u00e1n\u016f nevyhnuteln\u011b zahrne i Hormuse.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span dir=\"auto\">\u017d\u00e1dn\u00e9 p\u0159ekvapen\u00ed, ale zn\u00e1m\u00fd v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00fd sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159.<\/span><\/h2>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Hormuzsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv je jednou z nejd\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00edch energetick\u00fdch tras na sv\u011bt\u011b. V\u00e1\u017en\u00e9 naru\u0161en\u00ed dopravy by postihlo nejen \u00cdr\u00e1n a USA, ale i st\u00e1ty Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu, Asii a Evropu. I pouh\u00e1 hrozba \u00fatok\u016f m\u016f\u017ee p\u0159im\u011bt lodn\u00ed spole\u010dnosti, poji\u0161\u0165ovny a pos\u00e1dky, aby se oblasti vyhnuly.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">\u00cdr\u00e1n ani nemus\u00ed pr\u016fliv trvale a \u00fapln\u011b blokovat. Mohlo by sta\u010dit po\u0161kodit jednotliv\u00e9 tankery, polo\u017eit miny, ohrozit lod\u011b nebo drasticky zv\u00fd\u0161it pojistn\u00e1 rizika. Pr\u00e1v\u011b tato strategie je ji\u017e dlouho pops\u00e1na v americk\u00fdch anal\u00fdz\u00e1ch.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Publikace americk\u00e9 N\u00e1rodn\u00ed obrann\u00e9 univerzity z roku 1995 varovala p\u0159ed dlouhodobou ambic\u00ed \u00cdr\u00e1nu ovl\u00e1dnout Hormuzsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv. Mezi zm\u00edn\u011bn\u00fdmi zdroji byly rakety, d\u011blost\u0159electvo, miny a motorov\u00e9 \u010dluny v bl\u00edzkosti strategicky d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 vodn\u00ed cesty. (\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/ndupress.ndu.edu\/portals\/68\/Documents\/jfq\/jfq-9.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><span dir=\"auto\">NDU Press<\/span><\/a><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0)<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Koncem 90. let \u010dasopis\u00a0<\/span><em><span dir=\"auto\">Joint Force Quarterly<\/span><\/em><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0poznamenal, \u017ee \u00cdr\u00e1n tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee by v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b hrozby mohl uzav\u0159\u00edt Hormuzsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv. \u00datoky na lodn\u00ed dopravu v reakci na americk\u00fd ekonomick\u00fd tlak byly tak\u00e9 diskutov\u00e1ny ve vojensk\u00fdch textech. (\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/ndupress.ndu.edu\/portals\/68\/Documents\/jfq\/jfq-23.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><span dir=\"auto\">NDU Press<\/span><\/a><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0)<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span dir=\"auto\">Americk\u00e9 v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e9 hry podrobn\u011b zkoumaly \u00edr\u00e1nskou blok\u00e1du.<\/span><\/h2>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Studie RAND z roku 2004 dokonce zdokumentovala konkr\u00e9tn\u00ed pl\u00e1novac\u00ed sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e a v\u00fdpo\u010dty t\u00fdkaj\u00edc\u00ed se \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9ho uzav\u0159en\u00ed Hormuzsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Studie zkoumala sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159, ve kter\u00e9m \u00cdr\u00e1n pou\u017eije rakety, n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed miny a dal\u0161\u00ed tzv. zbran\u011b proti p\u0159\u00edstupu k Persk\u00e9mu z\u00e1livu. Auto\u0159i analyzovali, jak by uzav\u0159en\u00ed Hormuzsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu mohlo naru\u0161it americk\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 operace, pohyb vojsk a z\u00e1sobov\u00e1n\u00ed regionu. Sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 byl vyvinut v roce 2002. (\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.rand.org\/content\/dam\/rand\/pubs\/monographs\/2004\/RAND_MG112.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><span dir=\"auto\">rand.org<\/span><\/a><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0)<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">To znamen\u00e1, \u017ee v\u00edce ne\u017e dv\u011b desetilet\u00ed p\u0159ed dne\u0161n\u00ed eskalac\u00ed ji\u017e prob\u00edhaly v r\u00e1mci americk\u00e9ho bezpe\u010dnostn\u00edho a vojensk\u00e9ho pl\u00e1nov\u00e1n\u00ed v\u00fdpo\u010dty o tom, jak by \u00cdr\u00e1n mohl zablokovat Hormuzsk\u00fd proudy a jak\u00e9 by to mohlo m\u00edt d\u016fsledky pro USA a jejich spojence.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span dir=\"auto\">Arm\u00e1dn\u00ed v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e1 akademie varovala p\u0159ed reakc\u00ed na \u00fatok<\/span><\/h2>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Publikace Americk\u00e9 arm\u00e1dn\u00ed v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e9 akademie z roku 2005 v\u00fdslovn\u011b uv\u00e1d\u00ed, \u017ee \u00cdr\u00e1n by mohl na otev\u0159en\u00fd vojensk\u00fd \u00fatok reagovat proti\u00fadery. Stejn\u00e1 studie se tak\u00e9 zab\u00fdvala t\u00edm, jak sn\u00ed\u017eit motivaci \u00cdr\u00e1nu uzav\u0159\u00edt Hormuzsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv. (\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/press.armywarcollege.edu\/cgi\/viewcontent.cgi?article=1726&amp;context=monographs&amp;utm\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><span dir=\"auto\">press.armywarcollege.edu<\/span><\/a><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0)<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">V roce 2014 to je\u0161t\u011b jasn\u011bji uk\u00e1zala Arm\u00e1dn\u00ed v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e1 akademie. Studie o spolupr\u00e1ci USA se st\u00e1ty Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu uv\u00e1d\u00ed, \u017ee \u00cdr\u00e1n opakovan\u011b hrozil uzav\u0159en\u00edm Hormuzsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu, pokud budou uvaleny dal\u0161\u00ed sankce\u00a0<\/span><strong><span dir=\"auto\">nebo pokud bude zem\u011b vojensky napadena<\/span><\/strong><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0. (\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/press.armywarcollege.edu\/cgi\/viewcontent.cgi?article=1479&amp;context=monographs&amp;utm\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><span dir=\"auto\">press.armywarcollege.edu<\/span><\/a><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0)<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Toto ofici\u00e1ln\u011b popsalo spojen\u00ed:<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><span dir=\"auto\">Vojensk\u00fd \u00fatok na \u00cdr\u00e1n \u2013 mo\u017en\u00e1 \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e1 reakce proti Hormuzsk\u00e9mu regionu.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Toto tedy nen\u00ed retrospektivn\u00ed vysv\u011btlen\u00ed. Tento sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 je ve\u0159ejn\u011b dostupn\u00fd ji\u017e l\u00e9ta.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span dir=\"auto\">Americk\u00e1 vl\u00e1da vypo\u010d\u00edtala ekonomick\u00e9 d\u016fsledky ji\u017e v roce 2006.<\/span><\/h2>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Zn\u00e1m\u00e9 byly i ekonomick\u00e9 d\u016fsledky.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">V roce 2006 vy\u0161et\u0159oval \u00da\u0159ad pro odpov\u011bdnost vl\u00e1dy USA (GAO) katastrofick\u00fd sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159, kdy byl Hormuzsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv uzav\u0159en na t\u0159i m\u011bs\u00edce. \u00da\u0159ad p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dal, \u017ee b\u011bhem prvn\u00edho m\u011bs\u00edce by mohlo doj\u00edt ke ztr\u00e1t\u011b a\u017e 17 milion\u016f barel\u016f ropy denn\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">GAO dosp\u011bl k z\u00e1v\u011bru, \u017ee ani strategick\u00e9 z\u00e1soby ropy USA a dal\u0161\u00edch pr\u016fmyslov\u011b vysp\u011bl\u00fdch zem\u00ed nebudou sta\u010dit k pln\u00e9 kompenzaci tak velk\u00e9ho nedostatku. (\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.gao.gov\/assets\/a251210.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><span dir=\"auto\">GAO<\/span><\/a><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0)<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Potenci\u00e1ln\u00ed d\u016fsledky byly proto zn\u00e1my dlouho p\u0159ed sou\u010dasnou v\u00e1lkou:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span dir=\"auto\">Ceny ropy a plynu by mohly masivn\u011b vzr\u016fst.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span dir=\"auto\">N\u00e1klady na dopravu a poji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed by se zv\u00fd\u0161ily.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span dir=\"auto\">Dodavatelsk\u00e9 \u0159et\u011bzce by mohly b\u00fdt naru\u0161eny.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span dir=\"auto\">Zem\u011b z\u00e1visl\u00e9 na dovozu by byly obzvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b t\u011b\u017ece zasa\u017eeny.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span dir=\"auto\">Ob\u010dan\u00e9 a firmy by museli n\u00e9st vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed n\u00e1klady.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Ekonomick\u00fd \u0161ok nebyl nep\u0159edv\u00eddan\u00fdm vedlej\u0161\u00edm \u00fa\u010dinkem. Byl sou\u010d\u00e1st\u00ed ofici\u00e1ln\u00edch americk\u00fdch v\u00fdpo\u010dt\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span dir=\"auto\">RAND popsal Hormuzsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv jako nej\u00fa\u010dinn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed \u00edr\u00e1nskou zbra\u0148.<\/span><\/h2>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">V roce 2012 publikovala organizace RAND anal\u00fdzu s n\u00e1zvem\u00a0<\/span><strong><span dir=\"auto\">\u201eUzav\u0159e \u00cdr\u00e1n Hormuzsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv?\u201c<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Zpr\u00e1va popsala blok\u00e1du pr\u016flivu jako \u00fast\u0159edn\u00ed sou\u010d\u00e1st \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 asymetrick\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 strategie. Blok\u00e1da by mohla m\u00edt dalekos\u00e1hl\u00e9 d\u016fsledky pro region\u00e1ln\u00ed bezpe\u010dnost a glob\u00e1ln\u00ed trhy s ropou a mohla by potenci\u00e1ln\u011b p\u0159edstavovat nej\u00fa\u010dinn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed prost\u0159edek \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9ho tlaku.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Anal\u00fdza pouk\u00e1zala na motorov\u00e9 \u010dluny, pob\u0159e\u017en\u00ed rakety a n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed miny. I kdyby \u00cdr\u00e1n nedok\u00e1zal trvale udr\u017eet pr\u016fliv, miny a \u00fatoky by mohly zpomalit nebo do\u010dasn\u011b zastavit lodn\u00ed dopravu. Teher\u00e1n d\u00e1le signalizoval, \u017ee v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b \u00fatoku by tak\u00e9 podnikl kroky proti americk\u00fdm sil\u00e1m v Persk\u00e9m z\u00e1livu. (\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.rand.org\/pubs\/commentary\/2012\/10\/will-iran-close-the-strait-of-hormuz.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><span dir=\"auto\">rand.org<\/span><\/a><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0)<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Jin\u00e1 studie RAND z t\u00e9ho\u017e roku popsala \u00edr\u00e1nskou doktr\u00ednu je\u0161t\u011b p\u0159\u00edmo\u010da\u0159eji: \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 raketov\u00e9 a n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed s\u00edly by mohly b\u00fdt pou\u017eity k odvet\u011b proti USA nebo jejich region\u00e1ln\u00edm spojenc\u016fm a k naru\u0161en\u00ed lodn\u00ed dopravy v Persk\u00e9m z\u00e1livu. C\u00edlem by mohlo b\u00fdt donutit Washington ukon\u010dit konflikt za podm\u00ednek v\u00fdhodn\u011bj\u0161\u00edch pro \u00cdr\u00e1n. (\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.rand.org\/content\/dam\/rand\/pubs\/occasional_papers\/2012\/RAND_OP351.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><span dir=\"auto\">rand.org<\/span><\/a><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0)<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span dir=\"auto\">Dokonce i prost\u0159edky byly zn\u00e1my: miny, rakety a mal\u00e9 \u010dluny.<\/span><\/h2>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Bylo tak\u00e9 zn\u00e1mo, jak by \u00cdr\u00e1n mohl postupovat.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Anal\u00fdza RAND, kter\u00e1 se zab\u00fdvala rol\u00ed americk\u00e9 arm\u00e1dy v p\u0159ekon\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed nep\u0159\u00e1telsk\u00fdch p\u0159\u00edstupov\u00fdch bari\u00e9r, popsala sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9ho Hormuzu takto:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span dir=\"auto\">Mo\u0159sk\u00e9 miny,<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span dir=\"auto\">Pob\u0159e\u017en\u00ed rakety,<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span dir=\"auto\">D\u011blost\u0159electvo,<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span dir=\"auto\">rychl\u00e9 \u00fato\u010dn\u00e9 \u010dluny,<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span dir=\"auto\">Letadla a drony.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Podle tohoto pl\u00e1nu by se americk\u00e9 ozbrojen\u00e9 s\u00edly pokusily tyto syst\u00e9my zni\u010dit leteck\u00fdmi a p\u0159esn\u00fdmi \u00fatoky. (\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.rand.org\/content\/dam\/rand\/pubs\/research_reports\/RR200\/RR229\/RAND_RR229.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><span dir=\"auto\">rand.org<\/span><\/a><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0)<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Studie agentury RAND z roku 2017 \u0161la je\u0161t\u011b d\u00e1le a zkoumala americk\u00e9 \u00fatoky na \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e1 za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed, kter\u00e1 by mohla b\u00fdt pou\u017eita k uzav\u0159en\u00ed pr\u016flivu \u2013 v n\u011bkter\u00fdch p\u0159\u00edpadech dokonce je\u0161t\u011b p\u0159edt\u00edm, ne\u017e \u00cdr\u00e1n blok\u00e1du pln\u011b zavede. (\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.rand.org\/content\/dam\/rand\/pubs\/research_reports\/RR1300\/RR1359z1\/RAND_RR1359z1.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><span dir=\"auto\">rand.org<\/span><\/a><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0)<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">V roce 2019 zve\u0159ejnila agentura RAND dal\u0161\u00ed konkr\u00e9tn\u00ed vojensk\u00fd sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159: B\u011bhem politick\u00e9 krize \u00cdr\u00e1n \u00fato\u010d\u00ed na obchodn\u00ed lod\u011b a pokou\u0161\u00ed se naru\u0161it dopravu p\u0159es Hormuzsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv. Studie n\u00e1sledn\u011b zkoumala nezbytnou vojenskou reakci USA. (\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.rand.org\/content\/dam\/rand\/pubs\/research_reports\/RR2100\/RR2124\/RAND_RR2124.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><span dir=\"auto\">rand.org<\/span><\/a><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0)<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span dir=\"auto\">Reakce na ekonomick\u00e9 \u0161krcen\u00ed byla tak\u00e9 zn\u00e1m\u00e1.<\/span><\/h2>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">V roce 2021 popsala N\u00e1rodn\u00ed obrann\u00e1 univerzita dlouhodobou \u00edr\u00e1nskou \u010dervenou linii: Pokud \u00cdr\u00e1n nem\u016f\u017ee vyv\u00e1\u017eet ropu, pak by podle \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 logiky nem\u011bly b\u00fdt schopny neru\u0161en\u011b vyv\u00e1\u017eet svou ropu ani ostatn\u00ed st\u00e1ty Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Studie p\u0159ipomn\u011bla, \u017ee Teher\u00e1n v roce 2012 pohrozil uzav\u0159en\u00edm Hormuzsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu. Kdy\u017e se Washington v roce 2019 pokusil sn\u00ed\u017eit \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fd v\u00fdvoz ropy na nulu, \u00cdr\u00e1n podle anal\u00fdzy reagoval \u00fatoky na ropn\u00e9 z\u00e1silky a energetickou infrastrukturu v Persk\u00e9m z\u00e1livu. (\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/ndupress.ndu.edu\/Media\/News\/News-Article-View\/Article\/2541911\/irans-gray-zone-strategy-cornerstone-of-its-asymmetric-way-of-war\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><span dir=\"auto\">NDU Press<\/span><\/a><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0)<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Ekonomick\u00e1 logika, kter\u00e1 se za t\u00edm skr\u00fdv\u00e1, je zn\u00e1m\u00e1 u\u017e od \u00edr\u00e1nsko-ir\u00e1ck\u00e9 v\u00e1lky: \u00cdr\u00e1n nemus\u00ed Hormuz trvale uzav\u0159\u00edt. I miny, hrozby a ojedin\u011bl\u00e9 \u00fatoky by mohly zv\u00fd\u0161it pojistn\u00e9, odradit tankery a vytla\u010dit ceny ropy nahoru.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span dir=\"auto\">Kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e1 ot\u00e1zka: Co bylo \u0159e\u010deno ve\u0159ejnosti?<\/span><\/h2>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Tyto dokumenty nedokazuj\u00ed, \u017ee Washington\u00a0<\/span><strong><span dir=\"auto\">zam\u00fd\u0161lel<\/span><\/strong><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0uzav\u0159\u00edt Hormuzsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv . Ani nedokazuj\u00ed, \u017ee ka\u017ed\u00fd jednotliv\u00fd \u010dinitel s rozhodovac\u00ed pravomoc\u00ed p\u0159edv\u00eddal p\u0159esn\u00fd pr\u016fb\u011bh v\u00e1lky.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Dokazuj\u00ed v\u0161ak n\u011bco jin\u00e9ho:<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><span dir=\"auto\">Trumpova administrativa a americk\u00e1 arm\u00e1da nemohly \u00edr\u00e1nskou reakci v\u00e1\u017en\u011b pova\u017eovat za neo\u010dek\u00e1vanou.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Pentagon m\u011bl k dispozici des\u00edtky let anal\u00fdz, pl\u00e1novac\u00edch cvi\u010den\u00ed a v\u00fdpo\u010dt\u016f. Bylo zn\u00e1mo, \u017ee \u00fatok na \u00cdr\u00e1n:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span dir=\"auto\">ohrozit Hormuzsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv,<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span dir=\"auto\">Zam\u011b\u0159en\u00ed na americk\u00e9 z\u00e1kladny a spojence v regionu,<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span dir=\"auto\">Tankery a ropn\u00e1 za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed ohro\u017euj\u00ed,<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span dir=\"auto\">zhor\u0161it dod\u00e1vku energie<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span dir=\"auto\">Ceny ropy a n\u00e1klady na dopravu rostou,<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span dir=\"auto\">a mohlo by to vyvolat region\u00e1ln\u00ed v\u00e1lku.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Pokud byla ve\u0159ejnosti p\u0159ed zah\u00e1jen\u00edm \u00fatok\u016f vnucena p\u0159edstava, \u017ee v\u00e1lku lze omezit, kontrolovat a v\u00e9st bez v\u00e1\u017en\u00fdch d\u016fsledk\u016f pro glob\u00e1ln\u00ed ekonomiku, pak bylo toto zobrazen\u00ed p\u0159inejmen\u0161\u00edm hrub\u011b zav\u00e1d\u011bj\u00edc\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Proto\u017ee jejich vlastn\u00ed americk\u00e9 dokumenty po cel\u00e1 desetilet\u00ed \u0159\u00edkaj\u00ed n\u011bco jin\u00e9ho.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span dir=\"auto\">V\u011bdom\u011b podstoupili zn\u00e1m\u00e9 riziko.<\/span><\/h2>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Skute\u010dn\u00fdm skand\u00e1lem tedy nen\u00ed to, \u017ee \u00cdr\u00e1n na \u00fatok reaguje.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Skand\u00e1l spo\u010d\u00edv\u00e1 v tom, \u017ee Washington zah\u00e1jil v\u00e1lku, p\u0159esto\u017ee jeho vlastn\u00ed vojen\u0161t\u00ed strat\u00e9gov\u00e9 p\u0159ed pr\u00e1v\u011b touto reakc\u00ed varovali po cel\u00e1 desetilet\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Politi\u010dt\u00ed \u010dinitel\u00e9 v\u011bd\u011bli, \u017ee Hormuzsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv je pro \u00cdr\u00e1n nejsiln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ekonomickou p\u00e1kou. V\u011bd\u011bli, \u017ee \u00cdr\u00e1n nemus\u00ed \u010delit vojensky p\u0159eva\u017euj\u00edc\u00edm Spojen\u00fdm st\u00e1t\u016fm konven\u010dn\u00edm letectvem. Teher\u00e1n by m\u00edsto toho mohl za\u00fato\u010dit na slab\u00e9 m\u00edsto cel\u00e9ho z\u00e1padn\u00edho a asijsk\u00e9ho ekonomick\u00e9ho syst\u00e9mu: energetick\u00e9 a obchodn\u00ed trasy.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Pokud by nyn\u00ed Washington p\u0159edst\u00edral, \u017ee v\u00fdsledn\u00e1 energetick\u00e1 krize je v\u00fdhradn\u011b d\u00edlem iracion\u00e1ln\u00edho \u00cdr\u00e1nu, historick\u00e9 pozad\u00ed bude ignorov\u00e1no.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">\u00cdr\u00e1n se rozhodl za\u00fato\u010dit na lod\u011b a energetick\u00e9 trasy. USA se v\u0161ak ji\u017e d\u0159\u00edve rozhodly zah\u00e1jit v\u00e1lku, p\u0159esto\u017ee p\u0159esn\u011b tato reakce byla po cel\u00e1 desetilet\u00ed pops\u00e1na ve vlastn\u00edch studi\u00edch.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><span dir=\"auto\">V\u011bd\u011bli, co je v s\u00e1zce. Byli si v\u011bdomi sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159\u016f. A p\u0159esto akceptovali d\u016fsledky pro dod\u00e1vky energie, glob\u00e1ln\u00ed ekonomiku a populaci.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><span dir=\"auto\">Bylo to v\u0161echno \u00famysln\u00e9?<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-1185\" src=\"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/kuryr-podpis.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"84\" height=\"24\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Kdy\u017e Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty zah\u00e1jily vojensk\u00fd \u00fatok na \u00cdr\u00e1n, nikoho ve Washingtonu nemohlo v\u00e1\u017en\u011b p\u0159ekvapit, \u017ee&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":109967,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[6382,38,1686,5696,37,40],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/110815"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=110815"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/110815\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/109967"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=110815"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=110815"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=110815"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}