{"id":110799,"date":"2026-07-16T00:12:58","date_gmt":"2026-07-15T22:12:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=110799"},"modified":"2026-07-15T12:05:27","modified_gmt":"2026-07-15T10:05:27","slug":"alastair-crooke-iranska-valka-3-0","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/07\/16\/alastair-crooke-iranska-valka-3-0\/","title":{"rendered":"Alastair Crooke: \u00cdr\u00e1nsk\u00e1 v\u00e1lka 3.0"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00fd pokles v USA \u2013 zhor\u0161en\u00fd energetickou kriz\u00ed \u2013 by mohl znamenat katastrofu pro Trumpovy nad\u011bje v st\u0159ede\u010dn\u00edch volb\u00e1ch.<\/span><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

Kdy\u017e se americk\u00e9 n\u00e1mo\u0159nictvo v koordinaci s Katarem a Om\u00e1nem v \u00fater\u00fd ve\u010der pokusilo nasm\u011brovat konvoj \u010dty\u0159 lod\u00ed Hormuzsk\u00fdm pr\u016flivem p\u0159es om\u00e1nsk\u00e9 vody \u2013 nam\u00edsto trasy ofici\u00e1ln\u011b schv\u00e1len\u00e9 \u00cdr\u00e1nem \u2013 Trump si mo\u017en\u00e1 p\u0159edstavoval (nebo mu to bylo \u0159e\u010deno), \u017ee \u00cdr\u00e1n, s prob\u00edhaj\u00edc\u00edm rozs\u00e1hl\u00fdm poh\u0159bem zesnul\u00e9ho nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00edho v\u016fdce Al\u00edho Chamene\u00edho, nebude reagovat, zat\u00edmco se americk\u00e9 n\u00e1mo\u0159nictvo bude sna\u017eit vynutit si americk\u00fd koridor. Trump si v\u0161ak \u00edr\u00e1nskou provokaci \u0161patn\u011b vylo\u017eil \u2013 Hormuz\u00a0<\/span>je<\/span><\/em>\u00a0\u201ejadern\u00e1 zbra\u0148\u201c zem\u011b. \u00cdr\u00e1n se j\u00ed nevzd\u00e1.<\/span><\/p>\n

Trump trv\u00e1 na tom \u2013 v jasn\u00e9m rozporu s podm\u00ednkami stanoven\u00fdmi v p\u00e1t\u00e9m odstavci memoranda o porozum\u011bn\u00ed \u2013 \u017ee \u00cdr\u00e1n nem\u00e1\u00a0<\/span>pr\u00e1vo<\/span><\/em>\u00a0zasahovat do lodn\u00ed dopravy Hormuzsk\u00fdm pr\u016flivem. \u00cdr\u00e1n v\u0161ak jedn\u00e1 v r\u00e1mci dohodnut\u00fdch deeskala\u010dn\u00edch opat\u0159en\u00ed a opakovan\u011b varoval, \u017ee za\u00fato\u010d\u00ed na jak\u00e9koli plavidlo, kter\u00e9 obch\u00e1z\u00ed \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fd kontroln\u00ed mechanismus.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00cdr\u00e1n reagoval p\u0159\u00edmo na Trumpovu v\u00fdzvu \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 kontrole nad pr\u016flivem \u00fatokem na dv\u011b lod\u011b raketami a na t\u0159et\u00ed ozbrojen\u00fdm dronem. \u010ctvrt\u00fd tanker, vlastn\u011bn\u00fd Katarem a p\u0159ev\u00e1\u017eej\u00edc\u00ed zkapaln\u011bn\u00fd zemn\u00ed plyn, byl zap\u00e1len, co\u017e donutilo pos\u00e1dku opustit po\u0161kozen\u00e9 plavidlo.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tato \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e1 odvetn\u00e1 opat\u0159en\u00ed vyprovokovala Trumpa k na\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed americk\u00fdch leteck\u00fdch \u00fader\u016f proti \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fdm c\u00edl\u016fm, k obnoven\u00ed sankc\u00ed na v\u00fdvoz ropy z Isl\u00e1msk\u00e9 republiky a ke zru\u0161en\u00ed r\u00e1mcov\u00e9 dohody, kterou podepsal s akt\u00e9ry, kter\u00e9 nazval \u201e\u00edr\u00e1nskou \u0161mejdskou \u0161mejdovou\u201c, \u2013 \u010d\u00edm\u017e ukon\u010dil p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed. \u201eV\u010dera v noci jsme je tvrd\u011b zas\u00e1hli,\u201c \u0159ekl Trump na summitu NATO v Anka\u0159e. \u201ePravd\u011bpodobn\u011b je dnes ve\u010der tvrd\u011b zas\u00e1hneme znovu.\u201c<\/span><\/p>\n

Trump ve st\u0159edu ve\u010der skute\u010dn\u011b znovu za\u00fato\u010dil na \u00cdr\u00e1n \u2013 p\u0159esto\u017ee \u00cdr\u00e1n neza\u00fato\u010dil na jinou lo\u010f, kter\u00e1 se pokou\u0161ela obej\u00edt \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fd koridor. V reakci na to \u00cdr\u00e1n odp\u00e1lil balistick\u00e9 rakety a drony na americk\u00e9 z\u00e1kladny v Kuvajtu, Bahrajnu, Spojen\u00fdch arabsk\u00fdch emir\u00e1tech a na leteckou z\u00e1kladnu Muwaffaq Al-Salti v Jord\u00e1nsku.<\/span><\/p>\n

Viceprezident Vance \u00cdr\u00e1nu \u0159\u00edk\u00e1: \u201ePokud se pokus\u00edte uzav\u0159\u00edt Hormuzsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv, americk\u00e1 arm\u00e1da zareaguje. Je to tak jednoduch\u00e9.\u201c To znamen\u00e1, \u017ee bu\u010f \u00cdr\u00e1n ponech\u00e1 pr\u016fliv zcela otev\u0159en\u00fd pro v\u0161echny, nebo na n\u011bj USA budou pokra\u010dovat v \u00fatoc\u00edch, jako to ud\u011blaly v \u00fater\u00fd ve\u010der.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00cdr\u00e1n trv\u00e1 na tom, \u017ee memorandum o porozum\u011bn\u00ed poru\u0161ily USA, a (prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm mluv\u010d\u00edho N\u00e1rodn\u00edho bezpe\u010dnostn\u00edho v\u00fdboru \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9ho parlamentu) varuje, \u017ee dal\u0161\u00ed americk\u00e9 \u00fatoky na \u00cdr\u00e1n se setkaj\u00ed s rozs\u00e1hlou a naprosto p\u0159ekvapivou ofenzivou \u00cdr\u00e1nu \u2013 a mo\u017en\u00e1 i s dal\u0161\u00edmi mo\u017enostmi, jako je odstoupen\u00ed \u00cdr\u00e1nu od Smlouvy o ne\u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed jadern\u00fdch zbran\u00ed, zm\u011bna jadern\u00e9 doktr\u00edny zem\u011b a uzav\u0159en\u00ed pr\u016flivu Bab al-Mandab vedle Hormuzsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Viceprezident Vance \u0159\u00edk\u00e1, \u017ee pokud \u00cdr\u00e1n omez\u00ed Hormuzsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv (tj. ponech\u00e1 jej otev\u0159en\u00fd pro lod\u011b sp\u0159\u00e1telen\u00fdch zem\u00ed), USA eskaluj\u00ed. A \u00cdr\u00e1n na tuto hrozbu reaguje varov\u00e1n\u00edm, \u017ee eskaluje vojensky \u2013 dva \u00fadery za ka\u017ed\u00fd americk\u00fd \u00fader \u2013 a \u017ee by se mohl tak\u00e9 uch\u00fdlit k nov\u00fdm v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00fdm doktr\u00edn\u00e1m.<\/span><\/p>\n

Trump v podstat\u011b padl do eskala\u010dn\u00ed pasti, zjevn\u011b \u010d\u00e1ste\u010dn\u011b kv\u016fli frustraci z prudce klesaj\u00edc\u00edch v\u00fdsledk\u016f v dom\u00e1c\u00edch pr\u016fzkumech. Tuto situaci si v\u0161ak zp\u016fsobil s\u00e1m t\u00edm, \u017ee se b\u011bhem p\u0159\u00edprav na Chamene\u00edho poh\u0159eb sna\u017eil \u201ehr\u00e1t chyt\u0159e\u201c, aby dos\u00e1hl \u201erychl\u00e9ho v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed\u201c.<\/span><\/p>\n

Jak dlouho bude tato f\u00e1ze eskalace trvat? Rozhodn\u011b nepovede k otev\u0159en\u00ed Hormuzsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu, ani nep\u0159inese n\u00e1vrat ke\u00a0<\/span>status quo ante<\/span><\/em>\u00a0, kter\u00fd p\u0159edch\u00e1zel v\u00e1lce. Dokud si \u00cdr\u00e1n zachov\u00e1 schopnost kontrolovat Hormuzsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv, nen\u00ed d\u016fvod p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dat, \u017ee se situace vr\u00e1t\u00ed do p\u0159edchoz\u00edho stavu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Naopak, a je pravd\u011bpodobn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, krize urychl\u00ed vypuknut\u00ed hroz\u00edc\u00ed glob\u00e1ln\u00ed hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9 krize, kter\u00e1 by mohla trvat, dokud se ekonomick\u00e9 probl\u00e9my nestanou akutn\u00edmi \u2013 zat\u00edmco z\u00e1soby \u201ekysel\u00e9\u201c ropy budou nad\u00e1le klesat a dopady na re\u00e1lnou ekonomiku na Z\u00e1pad\u011b se stanou viditeln\u00fdmi.<\/span><\/p>\n

Vzhledem k vznikaj\u00edc\u00edmu nedostatku munice a sta\u017een\u00ed letectva z Bl\u00edzk\u00e9ho v\u00fdchodu Trump pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b nem\u00e1 dostatek zdroj\u016f na veden\u00ed tot\u00e1ln\u00ed \u201e\u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 v\u00e1lky 3.0\u201c.<\/span><\/p>\n

Na\u010dasov\u00e1n\u00ed tohoto nov\u00e9ho kola odvetn\u00fdch opat\u0159en\u00ed n\u00edzk\u00e9 intenzity bude proto pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b ur\u010deno akciemi rafin\u00e9ri\u00ed v USA, ale tak\u00e9 rozsahem \u201e\u0161kod\u201c, kter\u00e9 Trump utrp\u00ed doma v souvislosti s jeho klesaj\u00edc\u00edmi politick\u00fdmi vyhl\u00eddkami, a tak\u00e9 jeho averz\u00ed k jak\u00e9koli form\u011b osobn\u00edho pon\u00ed\u017een\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Kde se v\u0161echno pokazilo? J\u00e1dro probl\u00e9mu mo\u017en\u00e1 spo\u010d\u00edv\u00e1 v okam\u017eiku, kdy nov\u00fd \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fd nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed v\u016fdce Sajjid Mojt\u00e1ba prohl\u00e1sil, \u017ee na memorandum o porozum\u011bn\u00ed zast\u00e1v\u00e1 jin\u00fd n\u00e1zor ne\u017e vyjedn\u00e1vac\u00ed t\u00fdm, ale \u017ee souhlasil s pokra\u010dov\u00e1n\u00edm pot\u00e9, co od \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9ho prezidenta obdr\u017eel uji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed, \u017ee bude dodr\u017eovat a respektovat z\u00e1kladn\u00ed z\u00e1sady \u00cdr\u00e1nu t\u00fdkaj\u00edc\u00ed se vztah\u016f s USA.<\/span><\/p>\n

Prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00edho v\u016fdce Mod\u017et\u00e1by Chamene\u00edho jasn\u011b uk\u00e1zalo jak americk\u00fdm, tak \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fdm vyjednava\u010d\u016fm, \u017ee p\u0159ijet\u00ed memoranda o porozum\u011bn\u00ed \u00cdr\u00e1nem nebylo jednostrann\u00fdm mand\u00e1tem, ale \u00fazce souviselo s deseti principy, kter\u00e9 p\u016fvodn\u011b formuloval nov\u00fd nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed v\u016fdce.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00cdr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 veden\u00ed v ur\u010dit\u00e9m okam\u017eiku z\u0159ejm\u011b dosp\u011blo k z\u00e1v\u011bru, \u017ee USA \u00cdr\u00e1n p\u0159echytra\u010dily; \u017ee memorandum o porozum\u011bn\u00ed bylo podvodem \u2013<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201ea \u017ee souhrn ud\u00e1lost\u00ed od ozn\u00e1men\u00ed memoranda o porozum\u011bn\u00ed odr\u00e1\u017eel strategii USA zalo\u017eenou na n\u00e1zoru, \u017ee [USA a Izrael] nedos\u00e1hly sv\u00fdch c\u00edl\u016f v p\u0159edchoz\u00edm kole v\u00e1lky proti \u00cdr\u00e1nu \u2013 co\u017e si vy\u017e\u00e1dalo p\u0159eru\u0161en\u00ed konfrontace, by\u0165 jen do\u010dasnou, aby se bylo mo\u017en\u00e9 p\u0159eskupit a \u201ed\u016fkladn\u011bji\u201c se p\u0159ipravit na nov\u00e9 kolo, jakmile budou spln\u011bny spr\u00e1vn\u00e9 podm\u00ednky.\u201c<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

To vedlo k \u00cdr\u00e1nsk\u00e9mu p\u0159ehodnocen\u00ed, \u017ee Hormuzsk\u00e1 a Libanonsk\u00e1 slo\u017eka p\u0159edstavuj\u00ed kl\u00ed\u010dovou p\u00e1ku pro zah\u00e1jen\u00ed nov\u00e9 v\u00e1lky, zat\u00edmco Z\u00e1pad zvy\u0161oval tlak jako vy\u010dk\u00e1vac\u00ed strategii \u2013 zat\u00edmco se USA a Izrael p\u0159ipravovaly na dal\u0161\u00ed kolo v\u00e1lky.<\/span><\/p>\n

P\u0159edb\u011b\u017en\u00e1 strategie USA neznamen\u00e1 zm\u011bnu americko-izraelsk\u00fdch c\u00edl\u016f, ale sp\u00ed\u0161e \u00fapravu jejich opera\u010dn\u00edch mechanism\u016f, aby bylo mo\u017en\u00e9 dos\u00e1hnout ur\u010dit\u00fdch kompromis\u016f, kter\u00e9 Washington pova\u017euje za nezbytn\u00e9 (tj. u\u017e\u0161\u00ed spolupr\u00e1ce s Tureckem a prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm Erdogana i jedn\u00e1n\u00ed se syrsk\u00fdm D\u017eol\u00e1n\u00edm), aby se v Libanonu zam\u00edchaly karty a n\u00e1sledn\u011b, jak to vyj\u00e1d\u0159il Vance, \u201ezhodnotilo, jak karty le\u017e\u00ed\u201c.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nen\u00ed jist\u00e9, zda tato nov\u00e1 politika USA bude fungovat. Sv\u011bt se rychle m\u011bn\u00ed. O\u010dek\u00e1van\u00fd triumf Izraele na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b selhal. Trump\u016fv man\u00e9vr s memorandem o porozum\u011bn\u00ed o otev\u0159en\u00ed Hormuzsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b tak\u00e9 sel\u017ee.<\/span><\/p>\n

Souvisej\u00edc\u00ed v\u00e1lka proti Rusku a obl\u00e9h\u00e1n\u00ed \u010c\u00edny se tak\u00e9 stagnuj\u00ed \u2013 a zpochybn\u011bn je i (zat\u00edm nenapadnuteln\u00fd) vliv Izraele na USA. Vysoce postaven\u00fd americk\u00fd demokrat Rahm Emanuel a potenci\u00e1ln\u00ed demokratick\u00fd prezidentsk\u00fd kandid\u00e1t pro rok 2028 v\u010dera promluvil v Izraeli; jednozna\u010dn\u011b varoval, \u017ee Izrael\u00a0<\/span>\u201eztratil podporu sv\u011bta, stal se \u201aregion\u00e1ln\u00edm vyvrhelem\u2018 [a \u017ee jeho] spojenectv\u00ed s USA je \u201ana k\u0159i\u017eovatce\u2018\u201c.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

A kone\u010dn\u011b, \u201e\u010dern\u00e1 labu\u0165\u201c se nyn\u00ed plave ve st\u00e1le sluncem zalit\u00fdch vod\u00e1ch \u2013 Eric Katz v\u00a0<\/span>Notusu<\/span><\/em>\u00a0p\u00ed\u0161e , \u017ee\u00a0<\/span>\u201en\u00e1vrh zpr\u00e1vy americk\u00e9ho ministerstva financ\u00ed m\u00e1 varovat p\u0159ed riziky, kter\u00e1 p\u0159edstavuje trh s um\u011blou inteligenc\u00ed, a p\u0159irovn\u00e1v\u00e1 kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e9 aspekty tohoto trhu k internetov\u00e9 bublin\u011b, kter\u00e1 ot\u0159\u00e1sla americkou ekonomikou, kdy\u017e praskla na za\u010d\u00e1tku roku 2000.\u201c<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

Analytici z ministerstva financ\u00ed napsali:<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201eZku\u0161en\u00ed analytici z ministerstva financ\u00ed poznamenali, \u017ee spole\u010dnosti zab\u00fdvaj\u00edc\u00ed se um\u011blou inteligenc\u00ed jsou hloub\u011bji zako\u0159en\u011bny v americk\u00e9 ekonomice ne\u017e jejich dot-com p\u0159edch\u016fdci a p\u0159edstavuj\u00ed v\u00fdznamn\u00e9 riziko pro cel\u00fd syst\u00e9m, pokud se zm\u011bn\u00ed finan\u010dn\u00ed podm\u00ednky, nebudou spln\u011bny c\u00edle produktivity nebo r\u016fzn\u00e9 p\u0159ek\u00e1\u017eky br\u00e1n\u00ed r\u016fstu.\u201c<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

\u201ePokles na trhu s um\u011blou inteligenc\u00ed by vyslal \u0161okov\u00e9 vlny nap\u0159\u00ed\u010d cel\u00fdm ekonomick\u00fdm ekosyst\u00e9mem.\u201c<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

Pokles trhu v USA \u2013 zhor\u0161en\u00fd energetickou kriz\u00ed \u2013 by mohl znamenat katastrofu pro Trumpovy nad\u011bje v st\u0159edn\u011bdob\u00fdch volb\u00e1ch.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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Zdroj<\/span><\/a><\/span><\/h3>\n

 <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00fd pokles v USA \u2013 zhor\u0161en\u00fd energetickou kriz\u00ed \u2013 by mohl znamenat katastrofu pro Trumpovy…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":110800,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,38,107,37,40],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/110799"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=110799"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/110799\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/110800"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=110799"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=110799"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=110799"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}