{"id":110797,"date":"2026-07-16T00:12:10","date_gmt":"2026-07-15T22:12:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=110797"},"modified":"2026-07-15T11:15:45","modified_gmt":"2026-07-15T09:15:45","slug":"larry-c-johnson-proc-spojene-staty-bojuji-v-hormuzskem-prulivu-ve-valce-kterou-nemohou-vyhrat","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/07\/16\/larry-c-johnson-proc-spojene-staty-bojuji-v-hormuzskem-prulivu-ve-valce-kterou-nemohou-vyhrat\/","title":{"rendered":"Larry C. Johnson: Pro\u010d Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty bojuj\u00ed v Hormuzsk\u00e9m pr\u016flivu ve v\u00e1lce, kterou nemohou vyhr\u00e1t"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Podle dopisu Donalda Trumpa Kongresu Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty zah\u00e1jily novou v\u00e1lku s \u00cdr\u00e1nem. Zjevn\u011b nikdo oran\u017eov\u011b od\u011bn\u00e9mu mu\u017ei neinformoval, \u017ee USA nemaj\u00ed ve sv\u00e9m arzen\u00e1lu dostatek zbran\u00ed na to, aby udr\u017eely kampa\u0148 trvaj\u00edc\u00ed d\u00e9le ne\u017e m\u011bs\u00edc.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Za\u010dn\u011bme z\u00e1klady. HIMARS nen\u00ed raketa ani projektil\u2026 je to odpalovac\u00ed syst\u00e9m. Zpr\u00e1vy uv\u00e1d\u011bj\u00ed, \u017ee rakety odp\u00e1len\u00e9 z HIMARSu zas\u00e1hly \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 pob\u0159e\u017e\u00ed v posledn\u00edch t\u0159ech dnech \u2013 v sobotu, ned\u011bli a pond\u011bl\u00ed. Z HIMARSu lze odp\u00e1lit t\u0159i typy raket\/projektil\u016f:<\/span><\/p>\n

PrSM (Precision Strike Missile) \u2013 nov\u011bj\u0161\u00ed n\u00e1stupce ATACMS. Maxim\u00e1ln\u00ed dolet z\u00e1kladn\u00ed verze Increment 1 je p\u0159es 500 km. Byla z\u00e1m\u011brn\u011b navr\u017eena tak, aby p\u0159ekro\u010dila star\u00fd limit 499 km, kter\u00fd byl kdysi stanoven Smlouvou INF p\u0159ed jej\u00edm vypr\u0161en\u00edm v roce 2019; odhady otev\u0159en\u00fdch zdroj\u016f uv\u00e1d\u011bj\u00ed jej\u00ed efektivn\u00ed dolet na p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 500\u2013600 km. Pozd\u011bj\u0161\u00ed verze maj\u00ed dolet d\u00e1le zv\u00fd\u0161it, ale aktu\u00e1ln\u011b nasazen\u00e1 verze je z\u00e1kladn\u00ed verz\u00ed s doletem p\u0159es 500 km.<\/span><\/p>\n

GMLRS (Guided Multiple Launch Rocket System) \u2013 p\u0159esn\u00e9 rakety. Z\u00e1kladn\u00ed verze, GMLRS Unitary a GMLRS Alternative Warhead, maj\u00ed ob\u011b dolet p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 70 kilometr\u016f (kolem 45 mil). Nov\u011bj\u0161\u00ed GMLRS Extended-Range (GMLRS-ER) tento dolet t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 zdvojn\u00e1sobuje a dosahuje c\u00edl\u016f a\u017e do vzd\u00e1lenosti 150 kilometr\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n

ATACMS (Arm\u00e1dn\u00ed taktick\u00fd raketov\u00fd syst\u00e9m) \u2013 balistick\u00e9 st\u0159ely dlouh\u00e9ho doletu. Maxim\u00e1ln\u00ed dolet je p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 300 km. Ran\u00e9 varianty, vybaven\u00e9 kazetovou munic\u00ed (M39), m\u011bly krat\u0161\u00ed dolet, kolem 165 km, ale varianty s GPS nav\u00e1d\u011bn\u00edm a standardizovan\u00fdmi hlavicemi (M39A1, M48, M57) dosahuj\u00ed v\u0161ech p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 300 km, co\u017e z\u016fstala horn\u00ed hranice po celou dobu opera\u010dn\u00ed \u017eivotnosti programu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Mohly b\u00fdt pou\u017eity pouze dva mo\u017en\u00e9 typy raket: ATACMS a PrSM. Vysv\u011btl\u00edm pro\u010d. Vzd\u00e1lenost, m\u011b\u0159en\u00e1 jako p\u0159\u00edmka (po kru\u017enici) proch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00ed z Bahrajnu k \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9mu pob\u0159e\u017e\u00ed, z\u00e1vis\u00ed na zvolen\u00e9m kurzu, proto\u017ee se Z\u00e1liv roz\u0161i\u0159uje severoz\u00e1padn\u011b:<\/span><\/p>\n

Bahrajn zhruba p\u0159\u00edmo na sever do B\u00fa\u0161heru: ~309 km.<\/span>
\nNejkrat\u0161\u00ed plavba (z Bahrajnu k nejbli\u017e\u0161\u00edmu \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9mu pob\u0159e\u017e\u00ed v oblasti Kangan\/Ji\u017en\u00ed Pars): ~234 km.<\/span>
\nBahrajn do Asaluyeh: ~244 km<\/span><\/p>\n

Jin\u00fdmi slovy, ATACMS by nedos\u00e1hla B\u00fa\u0161ehru, ale mohla by zas\u00e1hnout \u010d\u00e1sti pob\u0159e\u017e\u00ed ji\u017en\u011b od B\u00fa\u0161ehru. PrSM tak z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 jedinou raketou schopnou zas\u00e1hnout c\u00edle pod\u00e9l \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9ho pob\u0159e\u017e\u00ed Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu. V tom v\u0161ak spo\u010d\u00edv\u00e1 probl\u00e9m, kter\u00e9mu Trump \u010del\u00ed: Dod\u00e1vky raket ATACMS i PrSM jsou omezen\u00e9.<\/span><\/p>\n

ATACMS \u2013 B\u011bhem cel\u00e9 doby trv\u00e1n\u00ed programu bylo vyrobeno 3 700 a\u017e 4 000 kus\u016f; Defense Express odhadla, \u017ee americk\u00e9 z\u00e1soby na konci roku 2024 \u010dinily p\u0159es 2 500 kus\u016f v r\u016fzn\u00fdch podm\u00ednk\u00e1ch, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 900 bylo exportov\u00e1no. Pentagon ji\u017e syst\u00e9my ATACMS nekupuje a postupn\u011b syst\u00e9m vy\u0159azuje ve prosp\u011bch PrSM. Nev\u00edm, kolik jich bylo odp\u00e1leno od zah\u00e1jen\u00ed operace Epic Fury, ale n\u011bkter\u00e9 zdroje uv\u00e1d\u011bj\u00ed zna\u010dn\u00fd po\u010det.<\/span><\/p>\n

PrSM \u2013 Jedn\u00e1 se o nejnov\u011bj\u0161\u00ed syst\u00e9m s nejmen\u0161\u00edm invent\u00e1\u0159em, proto\u017ee byl teprve ned\u00e1vno uveden do slu\u017eby a poprv\u00e9 byl pou\u017eit v bojov\u00fdch akc\u00edch b\u011bhem operace Epic Fury. Neexistuj\u00ed \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 star\u0161\u00ed syst\u00e9my v invent\u00e1\u0159i; dostupn\u00e9 \u010d\u00edslo jednodu\u0161e odr\u00e1\u017e\u00ed to, co bylo dod\u00e1no v r\u00e1mci p\u0159edchoz\u00edch smluv. Smlouvy z roku 2023 po\u017eaduj\u00ed 335 raket do roku 2029, postupn\u011b 54 v roce 2026, 208 v roce 2028 a 73 v roce 2029. Jin\u00fdmi slovy, na za\u010d\u00e1tku operace Epic Fury v \u00fanoru m\u011bly USA k dispozici m\u00e9n\u011b ne\u017e 60 raket.<\/span><\/p>\n

Existuje tak\u00e9 potenci\u00e1ln\u00ed, i kdy\u017e m\u00e9n\u011b dramatick\u00fd, nedostatek \u0159\u00edzen\u00fdch st\u0159el Tomahawk a syst\u00e9m\u016f JASSM. B\u011bhem p\u011bti t\u00fddn\u016f operace Epic Fury \u2013 p\u0159ed vyhl\u00e1\u0161en\u00edm p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed za\u010d\u00e1tkem dubna \u2013 USA odp\u00e1lily 850 st\u0159el Tomahawk, co\u017e p\u0159edstavuje asi 25 % celkov\u00e9 z\u00e1soby. Jen b\u011bhem prvn\u00edch 72 hodin jich bylo odp\u00e1leno 400 (cca 10 %). Zb\u00fdv\u00e1 tak z\u00e1soba v \u0159\u00e1du stovek tis\u00edc [pozn\u00e1mka: pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b se jedn\u00e1 o zhruba 3 000 kus\u016f]. \u010clov\u011bk by si myslel, \u017ee by to nem\u011bl b\u00fdt probl\u00e9m.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nepravda. Pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e1 produkce raket Tomahawk v posledn\u00edch deseti letech \u010dinila asi 86 raket ro\u010dn\u011b, pot\u00e9 klesla na minima 68 ve fisk\u00e1ln\u00edm roce 2023, 34 ve fisk\u00e1ln\u00edm roce 2024 a p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dan\u00fdch 22 ve fisk\u00e1ln\u00edm roce 2025 \u2013 zat\u00edmco, jak bylo vid\u011bt b\u011bhem operace Epic Fury, byly b\u011bhem t\u0159\u00ed dn\u016f odp\u00e1leny stovky raket. Ve fisk\u00e1ln\u00edm roce 2026 bylo zad\u00e1no pouze 57\u201358 raket. Reakc\u00ed na to je r\u00e1mcov\u00e1 dohoda podepsan\u00e1 se spole\u010dnost\u00ed RTX 4. \u00fanora 2026, kter\u00e1 si klade za c\u00edl ro\u010dn\u00ed v\u00fdrobu v\u00edce ne\u017e 1 000 raket b\u011bhem sedmi let, a po\u017eadavek n\u00e1mo\u0159nictva na 785 raket Tomahawk (p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 3 miliardy dolar\u016f) pro fisk\u00e1ln\u00ed rok 2027, co\u017e p\u0159edstavuje n\u00e1r\u016fst o p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 1 200 %. Vzhledem k tomu, \u017ee v\u00fdroba jedn\u00e9 rakety trv\u00e1 18 a\u017e 24 m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f, je nahrazen\u00ed v\u00edce ne\u017e 1 000 raket odp\u00e1len\u00fdch v \u00edr\u00e1nsko-ir\u00e1ck\u00e9 v\u00e1lce n\u011bkolikalet\u00fdm projektem. Aby toho nebylo m\u00e1lo, Tomahawk se spol\u00e9h\u00e1 na 18 miner\u00e1l\u016f vz\u00e1cn\u00fdch zemin, kter\u00e9 kontroluje \u010c\u00edna.<\/span><\/p>\n

Situace je je\u0161t\u011b hor\u0161\u00ed u JASSM. Z opera\u010dn\u00edho hlediska nejv\u00fdznamn\u011bj\u0161\u00edm ukazatelem je JASSM-ER (AGM-158B), neviditeln\u00e1 varianta s prodlou\u017een\u00fdm doletem, kter\u00e1 je tahounem ozbrojen\u00fdch sil. Jej\u00ed celosv\u011btov\u00fd invent\u00e1\u0159 p\u0159ed za\u010d\u00e1tkem v\u00e1lky \u010dinil p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 2 300 kus\u016f. Operace Epic Fury tento po\u010det drasticky sn\u00ed\u017eila: od 28. \u00fanora 2026 jich bylo vyst\u0159eleno p\u0159es 1 000, tak\u017ee k dubnu 2026 zb\u00fdv\u00e1 po cel\u00e9m sv\u011bt\u011b odhadem 425 JASSM-ER.<\/span><\/p>\n

Stejn\u00fd struktur\u00e1ln\u00ed probl\u00e9m je patrn\u00fd u ka\u017ed\u00e9ho syst\u00e9mu: i po roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed v\u00fdroby se pl\u00e1nuje v\u00fdroba maxim\u00e1ln\u011b kolem 1 000 raket ro\u010dn\u011b \u2013 zhruba 19 t\u00fddn\u011b \u2013 zat\u00edmco analytici odhaduj\u00ed bojovou spot\u0159ebu p\u0159i vysoce intenzivn\u00edch \u00fatoc\u00edch na v\u00edcevrstv\u00e9 syst\u00e9my protivzdu\u0161n\u00e9 obrany na 500 a\u017e 800 raket typu JASSM t\u00fddn\u011b. Tento nesoulad vedl k tomu, \u017ee se z\u00e1soby JASSM-ER zmen\u0161ily na n\u011bkolik stovek kus\u016f b\u011bhem zhruba m\u011bs\u00edce; dopln\u011bn\u00ed bude trvat n\u011bkolik fisk\u00e1ln\u00edch let. I tento syst\u00e9m je z\u00e1visl\u00fd na dodavatelsk\u00e9m \u0159et\u011bzci vz\u00e1cn\u00fdch zemin.<\/span><\/p>\n

CENTCOM tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee jeho c\u00edlem pou\u017eit\u00ed s\u00edly proti \u00cdr\u00e1nu v Hormuzsk\u00e9m pr\u016flivu je oslabit \u00edr\u00e1nskou schopnost \u00fato\u010dit na obchodn\u00ed lod\u011b pomoc\u00ed p\u0159esn\u00fdch zbran\u00ed proti \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fdm pob\u0159e\u017en\u00edm obrann\u00fdm syst\u00e9m\u016fm, raketov\u00fdm a bezpilotn\u00edm z\u00e1kladn\u00e1m a n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00edm kapacit\u00e1m. V tom spo\u010d\u00edv\u00e1 dal\u0161\u00ed probl\u00e9m: \u00cdr\u00e1n st\u0159\u00edl\u00ed z v\u00edce ne\u017e 1 000 stanovi\u0161\u0165 pod\u00e9l 270 kilometr\u016f dlouh\u00e9ho pob\u0159e\u017e\u00ed t\u00e1hnouc\u00ed se od Bandar-e Lengeh na severu po Sirik na jihu. I kdyby CENTCOM zni\u010dil v\u0161echna raketov\u00e1 a bezpilotn\u00ed stanovi\u0161t\u011b pod\u00e9l pob\u0159e\u017e\u00ed, vnitrozemsk\u00e1 odpalovac\u00ed m\u00edsta pro rakety a bezpilotn\u00ed letouny schopn\u00e9 dos\u00e1hnout pr\u016flivu by z\u016fstala nedot\u010dena.<\/span><\/p>\n

Jin\u00fdmi slovy, USA nemaj\u00ed ve sv\u00e9m invent\u00e1\u0159i dostatek raket Tomahawk a JASSM, aby \u00fa\u010dinn\u011b oslabily schopnost \u00cdr\u00e1nu \u00fato\u010dit na lod\u011b, kter\u00e9 nedodr\u017euj\u00ed p\u0159edpisy, v Hormuzsk\u00e9m pr\u016flivu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tak\u00e9 bych r\u00e1d upozornil na skute\u010dnost, \u017ee \u00cdr\u00e1n m\u00e1 mnohem snaz\u0161\u00ed \u00fakol, pokud jde o odvetu na americk\u00e9 \u00fatoky. USA prov\u00e1d\u011bj\u00ed sv\u00e9 leteck\u00e9 a raketov\u00e9 operace z m\u00e9n\u011b ne\u017e deseti z\u00e1kladen \u2013 konkr\u00e9tn\u011b ze dvou v Jord\u00e1nsku, jedn\u00e9 v Kuvajtu, jedn\u00e9 v Bahrajnu, jedn\u00e9 v Kataru, jedn\u00e9 ve Spojen\u00fdch arabsk\u00fdch emir\u00e1tech a jedn\u00e9 v Om\u00e1nu. S ka\u017ed\u00fdm \u00fatokem, kter\u00e9mu \u00cdr\u00e1n \u010del\u00ed, sta\u010d\u00ed, aby t\u011bchto sedm z\u00e1kladen opakovan\u011b bombardoval, dokud ji\u017e nebudou schopny podporovat americk\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 operace. M\u00edsto snahy zas\u00e1hnout 1 000 c\u00edl\u016f \u2013 z nich\u017e mnoh\u00e9 jsou chr\u00e1n\u011bny jeskyn\u011bmi nebo podzemn\u00edmi za\u0159\u00edzen\u00edmi \u2013 se \u00cdr\u00e1n mus\u00ed soust\u0159edit pouze na omezen\u00fd po\u010det z\u00e1kladen, na kter\u00fdch se nach\u00e1zej\u00ed americk\u00e9 jednotky a operace. Proto je Trumpova posledn\u00ed v\u00e1lka odsouzena k ne\u00fasp\u011bchu.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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Zdroj<\/span><\/a><\/span><\/h3>\n

 <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Podle dopisu Donalda Trumpa Kongresu Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty zah\u00e1jily novou v\u00e1lku s \u00cdr\u00e1nem. Zjevn\u011b nikdo oran\u017eov\u011b…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":110798,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[6382,38,37,40],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/110797"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=110797"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/110797\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/110798"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=110797"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=110797"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=110797"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}