{"id":110794,"date":"2026-07-15T06:19:29","date_gmt":"2026-07-15T04:19:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=110794"},"modified":"2026-07-15T06:19:29","modified_gmt":"2026-07-15T04:19:29","slug":"michael-svatos-kolik-casu-zbyva-rusku-aby-porazilo-ukrajinu-a-jak-to-provede-ii-cast","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/07\/15\/michael-svatos-kolik-casu-zbyva-rusku-aby-porazilo-ukrajinu-a-jak-to-provede-ii-cast\/","title":{"rendered":"Michael Svato\u0161: Kolik \u010dasu zb\u00fdv\u00e1 Rusku , aby porazilo Ukrajinu. A jak to provede? (II. \u010d\u00e1st)"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Dne\u0161n\u00ed anal\u00fdza je pokra\u010dov\u00e1n\u00edm v\u010derej\u0161\u00ed.\u00a0<\/a><\/p>\n

Na Ukrajin\u011b se mno\u017e\u00ed spekulace, \u017ee popul\u00e1rn\u00ed ministr obrany\u00a0Mychajlo Fjodorov<\/a>\u00a0u\u017e nebude sou\u010d\u00e1st\u00ed nov\u00e9 vl\u00e1dy, kterou Zelenskyj pr\u00e1v\u011b formuje. Oby\u010dejn\u00ed Ukrajinci maj\u00ed z t\u011bchto spekulac\u00ed o ne\u010dekan\u00e9m p\u00e1du ministra obrany Fjodorova po\u0159\u00e1dn\u011b zamotanou hlavu. Ukrajinsk\u00e1 m\u00e9dia Fjodorova, kter\u00fd se stal ministrem teprve 14. ledna 2026, celou dobu l\u00ed\u010dila jako str\u016fjce v\u0161ech ukrajinsk\u00fdch \u00fasp\u011bch\u016f, jak na don\u011bck\u00e9m pozemn\u00edm v\u00e1l\u010di\u0161ti, tak i \u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u00fdch \u00fatok\u016f proti rusk\u00fdm rafineri\u00edm a p\u0159\u00edstav\u016fm.\u00a0A nyn\u00ed ta sam\u00e1 m\u00e9dia spekuluj\u00ed o jeho konci<\/a>. Podivn\u00e9? Nikoli.<\/p>\n

Mychajlo Fjodorov letos v lednu vtrhnul do funkce ministra obrany jako velk\u00e1 voda, a hned za\u010dal do v\u0161eho strkat nos. A tak si pr\u00fd znep\u0159\u00e1telil v\u0161echny zaveden\u00e9 ukrajinsk\u00e9 arm\u00e1dn\u00ed korup\u010dn\u00ed kliky. Fjodorov tak\u00e9 ihned spustil velkou chlubivou medi\u00e1ln\u00ed ofenz\u00edvu, o tzv. ukrajinsk\u00fdch v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00fdch \u00fasp\u011b\u0161\u00edch, a zcela p\u0159i n\u00ed zast\u00ednil Zelensk\u00e9ho, a jeho vlastn\u00ed stejnou propagandu. A jakmile za\u010dal Fjodorov v \u017eeb\u0159\u00ed\u010dc\u00edch popularity rychle stoupat i nad gener\u00e1ly Budanova i Zalu\u017en\u00e9ho, bylo v\u0161em jasn\u00e9, \u017ee svou raketov\u011b rostouc\u00ed popularitou u\u017e za\u010d\u00edn\u00e1 ohro\u017eovat i politickou budoucnost Zelensk\u00e9ho. A ten se ho pr\u00fd, pr\u00e1v\u011b proto nyn\u00ed rozhodl zkusit zbavit.<\/p>\n

Co je v\u0161ak nejzaj\u00edmav\u011bj\u0161\u00ed na spekulac\u00edch o n\u00e1hl\u00e9m ne\u010dekan\u00e9m konci ministra obrany Fjodorova je,\u00a0\u017ee se dostal do ostr\u00e9ho konfliktu i s mocn\u00fdm gener\u00e1lem Syrsk\u00fdm<\/a>. Ten nyn\u00ed nal\u00e9hav\u011b pot\u0159ebuje dal\u0161\u00ed \u010derstv\u00e9 rekruty, proto\u017ee urychlen\u011b buduje 3 nov\u00e9 p\u011b\u0161\u00ed brig\u00e1dy, aby je mohl \u0161mahem odeslat k severn\u00ed rusk\u00e9 hranici t\u00e1hnouc\u00ed se pod\u00e9l brjansk\u00e9 a kursk\u00e9 gubernie, kde se o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1 podzimn\u00ed rusk\u00e1 ofenz\u00edva, a to nejkrat\u0161\u00edm sm\u011brem na Kyjev. A ministr Fjodorov p\u0159ed m\u011bs\u00edcem zcela zpackal mobiliza\u010dn\u00ed reformu. A v jej\u00edm d\u016fsledku te\u010f gener\u00e1l Syrskyj nejen nedostane nov\u00e9 pot\u0159ebn\u00e9 voj\u00e1ky, se kter\u00fdmi u\u017e napevno po\u010d\u00edtal. Ale severov\u00fdchodn\u00ed Ukrajinu tak nebude m\u00edt, kdo br\u00e1nit, a\u017e Rusov\u00e9 za\u00fato\u010d\u00ed. A proto\u017ee \u010dasu do o\u010dek\u00e1van\u00e9 rusk\u00e9 ofenz\u00edvy na Kyjev nen\u00ed na zbyt, spekuluje se na Ukrajin\u011b, \u017ee ministr Fjodorov bude v nov\u00e9m kabinet\u011b vym\u011bn\u011bn\u00a0za osv\u011bd\u010den\u00e9ho ministra vnitra Ihora Klymenka<\/a>, proto\u017ee ten se s dobrovolnou mobilizac\u00ed p\u00e1rat nebude.<\/p>\n

Fjodorov vsadil p\u0159i sv\u00e9 leto\u0161n\u00ed mobiliza\u010dn\u00ed reform\u011b na to, \u017ee dobrovoln\u011b nal\u00e1k\u00e1 do arm\u00e1dy nov\u00e9 rekruty na extr\u00e9mn\u011b vysok\u00e9 platy, a velmi kr\u00e1tkou n\u011bkolika m\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u00ed slu\u017ebu. Tento pl\u00e1n v\u0161ak zcela ztroskotal, a Ukrajina ztratila letos cel\u00fdch 6 m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f, kdy tak\u0159ka nijak ne-mobilizovala.<\/p>\n

Fjodorov\u016fv leto\u0161n\u00ed dobrovoln\u00fd mobiliza\u010dn\u00ed pl\u00e1n p\u0159itom ztroskotat musel.\u00a0U\u017e 26. \u010dervence 2023 hl\u00e1sila substruktura CIA Bidenov\u011b administrativ\u011b do Washingtonu<\/a>, \u017ee u\u017e 78% Ukrajinc\u016f m\u00e1 v p\u0159\u00edm\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edbuzenstvu n\u011bkoho, kdo u\u017e byl zmobilizov\u00e1n, a u\u017e bojoval na front\u011b. Proto\u017ee dobrovoln\u00e1 mobilizace je podle letit\u00e9 \u0161t\u00e1bn\u00ed v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e9 praxe v\u017edy dobrovolnou z\u00e1le\u017eitost\u00ed pouh\u00e9ho jednoho % mu\u017esk\u00e9 populace, a v\u0161echna dal\u0161\u00ed dobrovoln\u00e1 % nad tento historick\u00fd limit jsou v\u017edy pevn\u011b v\u00e1z\u00e1na na pozitivn\u00ed o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed, \u017ee se dobrovoln\u011b mobilizovan\u00fd voj\u00e1k z v\u00e1lky s vysokou m\u011brou pravd\u011bpodobnosti vr\u00e1t\u00ed \u017eiv\u00fd a nezran\u011bn\u00fd a s medailemi, mohl jenom naprost\u00fd v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00fd amat\u00e9r a \u0161t\u00e1bn\u00ed analfabet p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dat, \u017ee pro Ukrajince tato historick\u00e1 mobiliza\u010dn\u00ed pravidla neplat\u00ed, a \u017ee se tak nechaj\u00ed dobrovoln\u011b za p\u00e1r tis\u00edc dolar\u016f nal\u00e1kat, aby se nechali na front\u011b do p\u00e1r t\u00fddn\u016f s pravd\u011bpodobnost\u00ed \u201cdozajista\u201d sprovodit ze sv\u011bta rusk\u00fdmi v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00fdmi drony, a nebo nechat rusk\u00e9 drony ze sebe nad\u011blat do\u017eivotn\u00ed mrz\u00e1ky.<\/p>\n

Ukrajina se tak tedy letos v l\u00e9t\u011b svou sou\u010dasnou \u201cextr\u00e9mn\u011b vysokou mobiliza\u010dn\u00ed \u00fanavou\u201d nach\u00e1z\u00ed p\u0159esn\u011b v okam\u017eiku, kter\u00fd cht\u011bl n\u011bmeck\u00fd c\u00edsa\u0159sk\u00fd gener\u00e1l von Falkenhayn v roce 1916 bitvou o Verdun vyvolat ve Francii, (viz podobn\u011b p\u0159edchoz\u00ed anal\u00fdza MAP 2656), a ve kter\u00e9m cht\u011bl, u\u017e do Francie jenom n\u011bjakou svou dal\u0161\u00ed ofenz\u00edvou m\u00edrn\u011b drcnout, aby se \u00fapln\u011b zhroutila. A stejn\u00fd pl\u00e1n, z\u0159ejm\u011b koncem l\u00e9ta 2022, zvolil i rusk\u00fd gener\u00e1l Gerasimov. A te\u010f u\u017e m\u016f\u017ee kone\u010dn\u011b drcnout, jak Falkenhayn pl\u00e1noval, a Ukrajina se zhrout\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Gerasimov mus\u00ed, aby do Ukrajiny drcnul, nejprve zmobilizovat. Pro Rusko toti\u017e plat\u00ed stejn\u00e1 mobiliza\u010dn\u00ed pravidla jako pro Ukrajinu a cel\u00fd sv\u011bt. A proto\u017ee Rusko u\u017e za 3 posledn\u00ed roky v\u00e1lky dobrovoln\u011b zmobilizovalo 36 kr\u00e1t 25 tis\u00edc = 900 tis\u00edc voj\u00e1k\u016f. P\u0159i\u010dem\u017e asi 1\/3 z nich v\u0161ak jsou opakovan\u00e9 kontrakty, a tak se nepo\u010d\u00edtaj\u00ed. A tak u\u017e bylo v Rusku dobrovoln\u011b zmobilizov\u00e1no 600 tis\u00edc, tedy skoro 1% cel\u00e9 rusk\u00e9 mu\u017esk\u00e9 populace. A p\u0159\u00edliv dobrovoln\u00edk\u016f se tak nyn\u00ed nutn\u011b zastav\u00ed, a nebo sp\u00ed\u0161 nebude pot\u0159ebn\u00e9 v\u00fd\u0161e.<\/p>\n

Pro tuto Gerasimovovu podzimn\u00ed mobilizaci v\u0161ak plat\u00ed, \u017ee tito voj\u00e1ci budou tvo\u0159it a\u017e dopl\u0148ky, kter\u00e9 budou nahrazovat ztr\u00e1ty budouc\u00ed rusk\u00e9 ofenz\u00edvy. A tak Gerasimov m\u016f\u017ee drcnout do Ukrajiny u\u017e, jakmile bude mobilizace p\u0159ipravena k proveden\u00ed, a nemus\u00ed \u010dekat na jej\u00ed v\u00fdsledek.<\/p>\n

Gerasimov m\u016f\u017ee do Ukrajiny z\u00e1v\u011bre\u010dn\u011b drcnout, aby se zhroutila, bu\u010f z kursk\u00e9, nebo z brjansk\u00e9 gubernie, p\u0159\u00edpadn\u011b z B\u011bloruska, a nebo drcnout okolo Charkova. Nikoli v\u0161ak drcat na Donbasu, nebo p\u0159es ji\u017en\u00ed Dn\u011bpr.\u00a0 Z\u00edtra vysv\u011btl\u00edme podrobn\u011b pro\u010d? A kde? A s jak\u00fdmi silami?<\/p>\n

Michael Svato\u0161<\/a><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Dne\u0161n\u00ed anal\u00fdza je pokra\u010dov\u00e1n\u00edm v\u010derej\u0161\u00ed.\u00a0 Na Ukrajin\u011b se mno\u017e\u00ed spekulace, \u017ee popul\u00e1rn\u00ed ministr obrany\u00a0Mychajlo Fjodorov\u00a0u\u017e…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":26292,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[6],"tags":[1042,22,26],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/110794"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=110794"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/110794\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/26292"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=110794"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=110794"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=110794"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}