{"id":110679,"date":"2026-07-13T04:33:15","date_gmt":"2026-07-13T02:33:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=110679"},"modified":"2026-07-13T04:33:15","modified_gmt":"2026-07-13T02:33:15","slug":"zbynek-fiala-cena-ropy-nestoupa-vseho-do-casu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/07\/13\/zbynek-fiala-cena-ropy-nestoupa-vseho-do-casu\/","title":{"rendered":"Zbyn\u011bk Fiala: Cena ropy nestoup\u00e1? V\u0161eho do \u010dasu"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

Trhy reaguj\u00ed omezen\u011b jak na o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed m\u00edrov\u00fdch jedn\u00e1n\u00ed mezi USA a \u00cdr\u00e1nem, tak na zklam\u00e1n\u00ed z obnoven\u00e9ho nep\u0159\u00e1telstv\u00ed. Zachra\u0148uj\u00ed to strategick\u00e9 z\u00e1soby, ale vyno\u0159il se probl\u00e9m \u017eivotnosti z\u00e1sobn\u00edk\u016f.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Dopady \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 v\u00e1lky na sv\u011btovou ekonomiku jsou zna\u010dn\u011b tlumen\u00e9 z\u00a0\u0159ady d\u016fvod\u016f. Nejv\u00edc pomohl v\u00fdrazn\u00fd pokles \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 popt\u00e1vky, kter\u00e1 \u010derp\u00e1 z\u00a0vlastn\u00edch strategick\u00fdch z\u00e1sob a z\u00e1rove\u0148 sni\u017euje spot\u0159ebu. Podle statistik v\u00a0\u010c\u00edn\u011b (a Indii) za\u010dala poprv\u00e9 v\u00a0lo\u0148sk\u00e9m roce spot\u0159eba fosiln\u00edch zdroj\u016f klesat, v\u010detn\u011b uhl\u00ed. V\u00a0energetice je nahrazuj\u00ed obnoviteln\u00e9 zdroje a v\u00a0doprav\u011b elektromobilita. Pod\u00edl elektrick\u00fdch aut na \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9m trhu s\u00a0nov\u00fdmi vozy se loni p\u0159ibl\u00ed\u017eil ke dv\u011bma t\u0159etin\u00e1m. (Export Volkswagenu do \u010c\u00edny klesl o \u010dtvrtinu.)<\/p>\n

Kolik ropy sv\u011btu chyb\u00ed? Podle Mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed agentury pro energii (MEA) vypadne z\u00a0trhu do konce roku 1,5 miliardy barel\u016f. V\u00a0Horm\u00fazsk\u00e9m pr\u016flivu uv\u00e1zla necel\u00e1 p\u011btina b\u011b\u017en\u011b obchodovan\u00fdch objem\u016f kolem 100 milion\u016f barel\u016f denn\u011b.<\/p>\n

MEA se ujala koordinace uvol\u0148ov\u00e1n\u00ed strategick\u00fdch z\u00e1sob jednotliv\u00fdch zem\u00ed v\u00a0celkov\u00e9m rozsahu 400 milion\u016f barel\u016f, co\u017e by odpov\u00eddalo zhruba m\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u00edmu v\u00fdpadku tot\u00e1ln\u011b za\u0161puntovan\u00e9 produkce z\u00a0cel\u00e9ho Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu. Ten v\u0161ak tot\u00e1ln\u011b za\u0161puntovan\u00fd nen\u00ed, v\u00edce se za\u010daly vyu\u017e\u00edvat ropovody a tu a tam n\u011bjak\u00fd tanker propluje.<\/p>\n

Na \u010desk\u00e9 spot\u0159ebitele \u00cdr\u00e1nsk\u00e1 v\u00e1lka zat\u00edm moc nedol\u00e9h\u00e1, proto\u017ee \u010desk\u00e1 ekonomika je nastaven\u00e1 na zdroje odjinud. Plat\u00ed to i pro Evropu, kter\u00e9 pom\u00e1h\u00e1 r\u016fst v\u00fdvozu b\u0159idli\u010dn\u00e9 ropy z\u00a0USA.<\/p>\n

Samotn\u00e9 Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty jsou na tom jinak, t\u011bm r\u016fst t\u011b\u017eby dom\u00e1c\u00ed ropy moc nepom\u016f\u017ee. Jejich rafin\u00e9rie jsou nastaveny na kyselou t\u011b\u017ekou ropu z\u00a0Bl\u00edzk\u00e9ho v\u00fdchodu a nemohou ji rychle nahradit n\u011b\u010d\u00edm jin\u00fdm. Proto taky p\u0159evzaly nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed porci \u010derp\u00e1n\u00ed ze strategick\u00fdch z\u00e1sob v\u00a0rozsahu 172 milion\u016f barel\u016f.<\/p>\n

Po\u0159\u00e1d je tam z\u00a0\u010deho \u010derpat, p\u0159esto\u017ee strategick\u00e9 z\u00e1soby USA jsou na nejni\u017e\u0161\u00ed \u00farovni za posledn\u00edch 43 let. Na za\u010d\u00e1tku roku tam bylo 411 milion\u016f barel\u016f, ale v\u00a0\u010dervenci u\u017e to bylo jen 320 milion\u016f barel\u016f. V\u00a0p\u016fli kv\u011btna se z\u00a0nich \u010derpalo 10 milion\u016f barel\u016f t\u00fddn\u011b. Jednoduch\u00fd propo\u010det, \u017ee m\u00e1me k\u00a0dispozici dal\u0161\u00edch p\u016fl roku by v\u0161ak byl myln\u00fd. \u010c\u00e1st americk\u00fdch strategick\u00fdch z\u00e1sob tvo\u0159\u00ed lehk\u00e1 ropa, kter\u00e1 pom\u016f\u017ee okoln\u00edmu sv\u011btu, ale Ameri\u010dan\u016fm u\u017e tolik ne, podobn\u011b jako jejich vlastn\u00ed b\u0159idli\u010dn\u00e1 ropa.<\/p>\n

To je jeden z\u00a0americk\u00fdch paradox\u016f. A\u010dkoliv jsou Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edm producentem ropy na sv\u011bt\u011b, jejich rafin\u00e9rie historicky vznikly na n\u011b\u010dem jin\u00e9m, na dov\u00e1\u017een\u00e9 t\u011b\u017ek\u00e9 kysel\u00e9 arabsk\u00e9 rop\u011b, kterou si te\u010f v\u00e1lkou zablokovaly.<\/p>\n

Podobn\u00e9 vlastnosti m\u00e1 i ta venezuelsk\u00e1, ale americk\u00e9 ropn\u00e9 spole\u010dnosti moc nereagovaly na Trumpovu v\u00fdzvu, aby tam za\u010daly investovat s\u00a0jeho politickou podporou. Prvn\u00ed v\u011bc, Trump tu nebude v\u011b\u010dn\u011b a p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00ed vl\u00e1da u\u017e se m\u016f\u017ee vr\u00e1tit k\u00a0respektov\u00e1n\u00ed mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edho pr\u00e1va, aspo\u0148 n\u011bkde. D\u00e1le, rozvoj t\u011b\u017eebn\u00edch pol\u00ed vy\u017eaduje obrovsk\u00e9 investice, kter\u00e9 se mo\u017en\u00e1 nevyplat\u00ed. Te\u010f je tam p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 velk\u00e9 riziko rozvr\u00e1cen\u00e9 spole\u010dnosti a dlouhodob\u011b to m\u00e1 ropa se\u010dten\u00e9, kdov\u00ed, kolik j\u00ed bude za deset, patn\u00e1ct let pot\u0159eba.<\/p>\n

Ve strategick\u00fdch z\u00e1sob\u00e1ch USA maj\u00ed pod\u00edl t\u011b\u017ek\u00e9 kysel\u00e9 ropy podle zaveden\u00e9ho pravidla jen na \u00farovni 60 procent. Na za\u010d\u00e1tku roku tam bylo 245 milion\u016f barel\u016f t\u00e9to suroviny, bez kter\u00e9 se americk\u00e9 rafin\u00e9rie neobejdou.<\/p>\n

Jak dlouho se d\u00e1 takov\u00e1 ropn\u00e1 dieta vydr\u017eet?<\/p>\n

Situace by byla samoz\u0159ejm\u011b jin\u00e1, kdyby Ameri\u010dan\u00e9 dr\u017eeli s\u00a0\u010c\u00ed\u0148any krok v rozvoji obnoviteln\u00fdch zdroj\u016f a elektromobility. To by je Persk\u00fd z\u00e1liv zaj\u00edmal mnohem m\u00e9n\u011b a mo\u017en\u00e1 u\u017e by se do takov\u00e9 v\u00e1lky nenechali Izraelem zl\u00e1kat. Jen\u017ee Donald Trump se dostal do B\u00edl\u00e9ho domu za pen\u00edze fosiln\u00ed lobby, tak\u017ee te\u010f jim mus\u00ed vych\u00e1zet vst\u0159\u00edc, a taky to uk\u00e1zn\u011bn\u011b d\u011bl\u00e1 a \u0161kod\u00ed obnoviteln\u00fdm zdroj\u016fm a elektromobilit\u011b ze v\u0161ech sil.<\/p>\n

Pak mus\u00ed situaci kolem \u00cdr\u00e1nu rychle rozhodnout, proto\u017ee \u010das se kr\u00e1t\u00ed. Po pr\u00e1zdnin\u00e1ch vypukne p\u0159edvolebn\u00ed boj, ve kter\u00e9m jde o ztr\u00e1tu republik\u00e1nsk\u00e9 v\u011bt\u0161iny v\u00a0Kongresu. Z\u00e1soby tak\u00e9 nelze \u010derpat a\u017e do dna \u2013 a z\u00e1sobn\u00edky v\u00a0soln\u00fdch kavern\u00e1ch maj\u00ed omezenou \u017eivotnost.<\/p>\n

Ropa se ukl\u00e1d\u00e1 do podzemn\u00edch prostor vyt\u011b\u017een\u00fdch ve vrstv\u00e1ch kamenn\u00e9 soli. Jednotliv\u00e9 kaverny odd\u011bluj\u00ed pil\u00ed\u0159e, kter\u00e9 zaji\u0161\u0165uj\u00ed statiku konstrukce. Ropa tam m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt v\u011b\u010dn\u011b, se sol\u00ed to nic ned\u011bl\u00e1. Hor\u0161\u00ed je to p\u0159i \u010derp\u00e1n\u00ed. Pom\u00e1h\u00e1 p\u0159i tom vodn\u00ed roztok, solanka vh\u00e1n\u011bn\u00e1 pod tlakem na dno z\u00e1sobn\u00edku. Vytla\u010duje ropu nahoru, t\u00edm pom\u00e1h\u00e1, ale p\u0159itom rozpou\u0161t\u00ed s\u016fl a t\u00edm \u0161kod\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Z\u00e1sobn\u00edky byly vybudov\u00e1ny pro p\u0159eklenut\u00ed krize, nikoliv pro opakovan\u00e9 pou\u017eit\u00ed. Vydr\u017e\u00ed proto jen omezen\u00fd cyklus, z\u00a0n\u011bkter\u00fdch lze \u010derpat dokonce jen jednou, z\u00a0dal\u0161\u00edch t\u0159eba jen dvakr\u00e1t nebo t\u0159ikr\u00e1t. Standard m\u00e1 b\u00fdt p\u011bt cykl\u016f, ale z\u00a0t\u011bch u\u017e p\u00e1r prob\u011bhlo. T\u0159eba kdy\u017e byla vl\u00e1da v\u00a0jedn\u00e9 z\u00a0obvykl\u00fdch rozpo\u010dtov\u00fdch kriz\u00ed a za\u010dala prod\u00e1vat strategickou ropu, aby m\u011bla z\u00a0\u010deho platit \u00fa\u010dty.\u00a0\u00a0P\u0159i ka\u017ed\u00e9m \u010derp\u00e1n\u00ed se objem kaverny zv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed o 15 procent. Kdy\u017e se soli rozpust\u00ed moc, hroz\u00ed z\u0159\u00edcen\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Pen\u00edze jsou moment\u00e1ln\u011b ten nejmen\u0161\u00ed probl\u00e9m, proto\u017ee ropa ze strategick\u00fdch z\u00e1sob se neprod\u00e1v\u00e1, ale p\u016fj\u010duje. Kdy\u017e se pak vrac\u00ed, je tu sazba, \u017ee za \u010dty\u0159i p\u016fj\u010den\u00e9 barely dostanou p\u011bt barel\u016f zp\u00e1tky. T\u00edm se m\u00e1 posilovat ukl\u00e1dan\u00fd objem. Jestli to ov\u0161em syst\u00e9m vydr\u017e\u00ed a nebude se muset budovat znovu. To u\u017e by nebylo tak snadn\u00e9.<\/p>\n

Tikaj\u00ed tu tedy troje hodiny, p\u00ed\u0161e Larry Johnson na Substacku. Zaprv\u00e9, kolik z\u00a0vy\u010dlen\u011bn\u00fdch 172 milion\u016f barel\u016f z\u00e1sob je\u0161t\u011b zb\u00fdv\u00e1 k\u00a0aktu\u00e1ln\u00edmu \u010derp\u00e1n\u00ed. Sleduje to n\u00e1rodn\u00ed v\u00fdzkumn\u00fd \u00fastav Sandia. M\u00e1 to b\u00fdt n\u011bjak\u00fdch 80 milion\u016f barel\u016f ve\u0161ker\u00e9 ropy \u010derpan\u00fdch v\u00a0tempu 5,6 a\u017e 6,2 milion\u016f barel\u016f t\u00fddn\u011b. S\u00a0t\u00edm se daj\u00ed vydr\u017eet je\u0161t\u011b t\u0159i m\u011bs\u00edce.<\/p>\n

Kdy\u017e se zam\u011b\u0159\u00edme jen na tu t\u011b\u017ekou kyselou ropu, kterou pot\u0159ebuj\u00ed hlavn\u011b v\u00a0Americe, a \u0159ekneme, \u017ee je krize a bereme, dokud to jde, m\u016f\u017ee p\u0159i \u010derp\u00e1n\u00ed tempem 3,5 a\u017e 4,5 milion\u016f barel\u016f t\u00fddn\u011b vydr\u017eet zhruba rok. To je v\u0161ak pouze teoretick\u00fd v\u00fdpo\u010det, proto\u017ee do hry pak vstoup\u00ed je\u0161t\u011b fyzick\u00fd stav z\u00e1sobn\u00edk\u016f. Podle Sandia by \u010derp\u00e1n\u00ed v\u00edce jak 100 a\u017e 150 milion\u016f barel\u016f z\u00e1sobn\u00edky definitivn\u011b zni\u010dilo.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/larrycjohnson.substack.com\/p\/part-ii-the-sour-crude-problem-how\u00a0<\/a><\/p>\n

Trump by proto pot\u0159eboval rychle vyhr\u00e1t nebo jednat a vyhnout se tak otev\u0159en\u00ed dal\u0161\u00ed nekone\u010dn\u00e9 v\u00e1lky. Na tu nem\u00e1. Jen t\u00e9 munice u\u017e se vyst\u0159\u00edlelo n\u00e1sobn\u011b v\u00edc, ne\u017e s\u00a0\u010d\u00edm se na za\u010d\u00e1tku po\u010d\u00edtalo. To by mohlo nazna\u010dovat, \u017ee sou\u010dasn\u00e1 siln\u00e1 slova jsou opravdu jen slova. Jinak brzy nastane skute\u010dn\u00fd nedostatek ropy a na stole jsou \u00fapln\u011b jin\u00e9 karty.<\/p>\n

Zbyn\u011bk Fiala<\/a><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Trhy reaguj\u00ed omezen\u011b jak na o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed m\u00edrov\u00fdch jedn\u00e1n\u00ed mezi USA a \u00cdr\u00e1nem, tak na zklam\u00e1n\u00ed…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":105563,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[6],"tags":[1042,1872,310],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/110679"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=110679"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/110679\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/105563"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=110679"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=110679"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=110679"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}