{"id":110317,"date":"2026-07-08T00:31:50","date_gmt":"2026-07-07T22:31:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=110317"},"modified":"2026-07-07T22:47:29","modified_gmt":"2026-07-07T20:47:29","slug":"alastair-crooke-memorandum-o-porozumeni-zustava-pozastaveno-zatimco-usa-prechazeji-k-planu-b","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/07\/08\/alastair-crooke-memorandum-o-porozumeni-zustava-pozastaveno-zatimco-usa-prechazeji-k-planu-b\/","title":{"rendered":"Alastair Crooke: Memorandum o porozum\u011bn\u00ed z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 pozastaveno, zat\u00edmco USA p\u0159ech\u00e1zej\u00ed k pl\u00e1nu \u201eB\u201c"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Zat\u00edmco Hormuzsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 blokov\u00e1n a frakce v B\u00edl\u00e9m dom\u011b mezi sebou nad\u00e1le bojuj\u00ed \u2013 kdo si tu s k\u00fdm doopravdy hraje?<\/span><\/p>\n

Pl\u00e1n A p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dal svr\u017een\u00ed Isl\u00e1msk\u00e9 republiky, kter\u00e1 byla vn\u00edm\u00e1na pouze jako k\u0159ehk\u00fd dome\u010dek z karet. Tento kolaps \u2013 jak se o\u010dek\u00e1valo \u2013 by se roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159il a strhl by dol\u016f n\u011bkolik propojen\u00fdch front osy odporu, uv\u00e1d\u00ed anal\u00fdza Mossadu a propojen\u00fdch izraelsk\u00fdch mocensk\u00fdch center v USA. (N\u011bkte\u0159\u00ed ameri\u010dt\u00ed p\u0159edstavitel\u00e9 v\u0161ak m\u011bli pochybnosti.)<\/span><\/p>\n

P\u0159edpov\u011b\u010f lidov\u00e9ho povst\u00e1n\u00ed v \u00cdr\u00e1nu se uk\u00e1zala jako strategick\u00e1 chyba takov\u00e9ho rozsahu, \u017ee katalyzovala vznik siln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, vzdorovit\u011bj\u0161\u00ed a sebev\u011bdom\u011bj\u0161\u00ed republiky. Dokonce i izrael\u0161t\u00ed experti uzn\u00e1vaj\u00ed, \u017ee fale\u0161n\u00fd p\u0159edpoklad, kter\u00fd byl z\u00e1kladem v\u00e1lky, vytvo\u0159il novou rovnov\u00e1hu sil na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b. Do t\u00e9 doby byl podle p\u0159edn\u00edho izraelsk\u00e9ho vojensk\u00e9ho koment\u00e1tora (Alon Ben David) Izrael hlavn\u00edm partnerem na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b pro sv\u011btov\u00e9 z\u00e1jmy; od nyn\u011bj\u0161ka v\u0161ak hlavn\u00edm partnerem byl a bude \u00cdr\u00e1n. Tento koment\u00e1\u0159 zd\u016fraznil, do jak\u00e9 m\u00edry byl p\u0159ekro\u010den Rubikon.<\/span><\/p>\n

Kolektivn\u00ed prosionistick\u00fd blok tedy p\u0159e\u0161el k pl\u00e1nu B \u2013 \u201epodvodu\u201c zalo\u017een\u00e9mu na memorandu o porozum\u011bn\u00ed. Trumpovy interpretace, kter\u00e9 by \u00cdr\u00e1n pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b p\u0159ijal, by \u00cdr\u00e1n fakticky odzbrojily prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm jadern\u00e9 dohody, kter\u00e1 by st\u00e1t odhalila kv\u016fli jeho po\u017eadavk\u016fm na \u201eov\u011b\u0159ov\u00e1n\u00ed\u201c: dot\u011brn\u00e9, \u201ev\u0161udyp\u0159\u00edtomn\u00e9\u201c p\u0159ekvapiv\u00e9 inspekce \u201etajn\u00fdch podzemn\u00edch za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed\u201c ze strany MAAE a v\u00fdslechy v\u011bdc\u016f a v\u00fdzkumn\u00fdch akademi\u00ed. V\u0161echno by (op\u011bt) bylo odhaleno.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ve spojen\u00ed s \u0161ir\u0161\u00ed izraelskou hegemonickou ambic\u00ed Pl\u00e1nu \u201eB\u201c by c\u00edlem bylo sou\u010dasn\u011b lobotomie Hizball\u00e1hu prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm samostatn\u00e9 dohody o odzbrojen\u00ed zprost\u0159edkovan\u00e9 poddajn\u00fdmi libanonsk\u00fdmi vl\u00e1dn\u00edmi frakcemi, kter\u00e9 by vyv\u00edjely tlak na toto hnut\u00ed ze severu, zat\u00edmco Izrael by na jihu rozs\u00e9val chaos.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pl\u00e1n soub\u011b\u017en\u011b p\u0159edpokl\u00e1d\u00e1 sterilizaci palestinsk\u00e9ho odboje pomoc\u00ed vietnamsk\u00e9ho \u201estrategick\u00e9ho Hamletova programu\u201c jako modelu pro nucen\u00e9 p\u0159es\u00eddlen\u00ed do sterilizovan\u00fdch, oplocen\u00fdch \u201ekoncentra\u010dn\u00edch t\u00e1bor\u016f\u201c.<\/span><\/p>\n

T\u0159et\u00ed slo\u017eka zahrnuje demont\u00e1\u017e ir\u00e1ck\u00e9ho odboje poddajn\u00fdm, USA dosazen\u00fdm nov\u00fdm premi\u00e9rem Al\u00edm al-Zaidim, kter\u00fd pod rou\u0161kou USA podporovan\u00e9 protikorup\u010dn\u00ed kampan\u011b po\u017eaduje odzbrojen\u00ed ir\u00e1ck\u00e9ho odboje do 30. z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed. Neutralizace ir\u00e1ck\u00e9ho odboje je pova\u017eov\u00e1na za kl\u00ed\u010d k usnadn\u011bn\u00ed syrsk\u00e9 invaze d\u017eih\u00e1distick\u00fdch milic\u00ed prezidenta D\u017e\u00fal\u00e1n\u00edho do severn\u00edho Libanonu, aby se pln\u011b uzav\u0159ela vazba kolem Hizball\u00e1hu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Celkov\u011b se zd\u00e1, \u017ee pl\u00e1n \u201eB\u201c nazna\u010duje velmi komplexn\u00ed region\u00e1ln\u00ed pacifikaci, zejm\u00e9na ve spojen\u00ed s \u00fasil\u00edm USA o n\u00e1siln\u00e9 otev\u0159en\u00ed \u201eamerick\u00e9ho koridoru\u201c na om\u00e1nsk\u00e9 stran\u011b Hormuzsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Koncept region\u00e1ln\u00ed pacifikace bude pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b vn\u00edm\u00e1n jako chytr\u00fd tah Trumpa, jeho\u017e c\u00edlem je sn\u00ed\u017eit tlak, kter\u00fd na n\u011bj vyv\u00edj\u00ed hn\u011bv neokonzervativc\u016f kv\u016fli jeho \u201e\u00fastupk\u016fm\u201c \u00cdr\u00e1nu v r\u00e1mci memoranda o porozum\u011bn\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ale je to opravdu tak moudr\u00e9? Marco Rubio byl pov\u011b\u0159en dohledem nad establi\u0161mentem v Bejr\u00fatu, aby mohl uzav\u0159\u00edt m\u00edr s Izraelem v jejich sd\u00edlen\u00e9m nep\u0159\u00e1telstv\u00ed v\u016f\u010di Hizball\u00e1hu. V\u00fdsledn\u00fd \u201ekus pap\u00edru\u201c o odzbrojen\u00ed Hizball\u00e1hu v\u0161ak postr\u00e1d\u00e1 legitimitu; je v rozporu s libanonskou \u00fastavou a k tomu, aby m\u011bl jakoukoli platnost nebo v\u00fdznam, by vy\u017eadoval schv\u00e1len\u00ed kabinetem a parlamentem.<\/span><\/p>\n

Izraelsko-libanonsk\u00e1 dohoda v\u0161ak vkl\u00e1d\u00e1 n\u016f\u017e do zad Vanceovy samostatn\u011b dohodnut\u00e9, Katarem veden\u00e9 americko-\u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 koordina\u010dn\u00ed struktury pro sledov\u00e1n\u00ed dodr\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed memoranda o porozum\u011bn\u00ed v Libanonu. Rubiova iniciativa vylou\u010dit \u00cdr\u00e1n z libanonsk\u00e9ho koordina\u010dn\u00edho r\u00e1mce podkop\u00e1v\u00e1 memorandum o porozum\u011bn\u00ed i Vanceovo media\u010dn\u00ed \u00fasil\u00ed. Rubi\u016fv t\u0159\u00edstr\u00e1nkov\u00fd \u201edokument\u201c nevy\u0159e\u0161\u00ed nic jin\u00e9ho, \u200b\u200bne\u017e \u017ee \u201elibanonsk\u00fd probl\u00e9m\u201c ponech\u00e1 jako otev\u0159enou r\u00e1nu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nicm\u00e9n\u011b pro fungov\u00e1n\u00ed memoranda o porozum\u011bn\u00ed je \u201ep\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed v Libanonu a sta\u017een\u00ed Izraele\u201c. Zd\u00e1 se, \u017ee Netanjahu pov\u011b\u0159il Rona Dermera, aby p\u0159im\u011bl Rubia memorandum sabotovat.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tak\u017ee te\u010f m\u00e1me v B\u00edl\u00e9m dom\u011b ob\u010danskou v\u00e1lku kv\u016fli \u00cdr\u00e1nu \u2013 Vance versus Rubio \u2013 zat\u00edmco memorandum o porozum\u011bn\u00ed z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 v limbu, pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b st\u00e1le existuje, i kdy\u017e v k\u00f3matu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Mezit\u00edm se v\u011bci hrout\u00ed: Netanjahu\u016fv hlavn\u00ed vyzyvatel v nadch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00edch volb\u00e1ch, b\u00fdval\u00fd \u0161\u00e9f IDF a b\u00fdval\u00fd \u010dlen v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e9ho kabinetu Gadi Eisenkot, tento t\u00fdden potvrdil, \u017ee \u201e\u00cdr\u00e1n nikdy nez\u00edskal jadern\u00e9 zbran\u011b. Jsem velmi dob\u0159e obezn\u00e1men s celou zpravodajskou situac\u00ed… Netanjahu si vym\u00fd\u0161l\u00ed realitu, fabuluje hrozby a t\u00edm d\u011bs\u00ed izraelskou ve\u0159ejnost.\u201c S t\u00edm souhlasil i b\u00fdval\u00fd premi\u00e9r Bennett, kter\u00fd Netanjahuova tvrzen\u00ed ozna\u010dil za \u201el\u017ei\u201c a obvinil ho z \u201eobr\u00e1cen\u00e9 konstrukce historie\u201c.<\/span><\/p>\n

To v\u0161e jen m\u00e1lo pom\u016f\u017ee Trumpov\u011b nal\u00e9hav\u00e9 pot\u0159eb\u011b pln\u011b otev\u0159\u00edt Hormuzsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv, aby se zabr\u00e1nilo v\u00e1\u017en\u00e9 hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9 krizi. Na rozd\u00edl od n\u00e1zoru, \u017ee se jedn\u00e1 o chytr\u00fd tah, jeden \u00fahel pohledu (st\u00e1le v\u00edce zast\u00e1van\u00fd mimo jin\u00e9 \u00cdr\u00e1nci) je, \u017ee \u00cdr\u00e1n je USA klam\u00e1n \u2013 \u017ee memorandum o porozum\u011bn\u00ed je lest, jak vynutit okam\u017eit\u00e9 znovuotev\u0159en\u00ed Hormuzsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu, jak navrhl Vance, s c\u00edlem doplnit strategick\u00e9 z\u00e1soby ropy USA a Z\u00e1padu a z\u00edskat \u010das na to, aby se zjistilo, kde by mohly skr\u00fdvat americk\u00e9 p\u00e1ky, pokud jde o dal\u0161\u00ed prvky memoranda o porozum\u011bn\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

N\u00e1zory v kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e9 \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 expertn\u00ed rad\u011b (a mezi \u0161irokou ve\u0159ejnost\u00ed) se zpevnily: \u00cdr\u00e1n by nem\u011bl d\u011blat \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 \u00fastupky USA, zejm\u00e9na pokud jde o pr\u016fjezd (nep\u0159\u00e1telsk\u00fdch) lod\u00ed Hormuzsk\u00fdm pr\u016flivem. Panuje shoda v tom, \u017ee \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fd tlak na Hormuzsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv bude pokra\u010dovat, dokud se bolest nestane nesnesitelnou.<\/span><\/p>\n

Zat\u00edmco se ve Washingtonu otev\u00edraj\u00ed trhliny \u2013 a \u00cdr\u00e1n st\u00e1le v\u00edce ned\u016fv\u011b\u0159uje Trumpovi a jeho klikat\u00e9mu kurzu \u2013 memorandum o porozum\u011bn\u00ed se ukazuje jako podvod, jeho\u017e c\u00edlem je pouze otev\u0159\u00edt dve\u0159e p\u0159edt\u00edm, ne\u017e bude \u00cdr\u00e1n napaden jak nep\u0159\u00edmo (prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm sv\u00fdch spojenc\u016f v odboji), tak i siln\u011bji.<\/span><\/p>\n

Je zaj\u00edmav\u00e9, \u017ee tento rostouc\u00ed n\u00e1zor se shoduje s prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00edm rusk\u00e9ho ministra zahrani\u010d\u00ed Sergeje Lavrova, kter\u00fd vyj\u00e1d\u0159il sv\u016fj vlastn\u00ed n\u00e1zor, \u017ee \u201edohody\u201c dosa\u017een\u00e9 s Trumpem v Anchorage byly pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b tak\u00e9 podvodem USA.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tak\u017ee, kdo koho \u201eoklamal\u201c? V tuto chv\u00edli ropa z Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu do USA nete\u010de. Podle agentury Reuters opustilo Hormuzsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv nejm\u00e9n\u011b p\u011bt supertanker\u016f p\u0159epravuj\u00edc\u00edch celkem 10 milion\u016f barel\u016f sa\u00fadsk\u00e9 ropy, nalo\u017een\u00fdch v Ras Tanura. Dva z p\u011bti velmi velk\u00fdch tanker\u016f na ropu, kter\u00e9 opustily pr\u016fliv, m\u00ed\u0159\u00ed do Japonska, zat\u00edmco dva dal\u0161\u00ed do \u010c\u00edny. To znamen\u00e1 \u2013 jak zd\u016fraznil Larry Johnson \u2013 \u017ee i kdyby tankery m\u00ed\u0159ily do USA nyn\u00ed, USA by st\u00e1le \u010delily v\u00e1\u017en\u00e9mu nedostatku kysel\u00e9 ropy, a to nejd\u0159\u00edve do 23. srpna, vzhledem k 42denn\u00ed tranzitn\u00ed dob\u011b do USA. (Kysel\u00e1 ropa je kl\u00ed\u010dovou surovinou pro komplexn\u00ed americk\u00e9 rafinerie, kter\u00e9 vyr\u00e1b\u011bj\u00ed naftu a leteck\u00e9 palivo.)<\/span><\/p>\n

Pov\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e1 anal\u00fdza americko-izraelsk\u00e9 v\u00e1lky proti \u00cdr\u00e1nu mus\u00ed b\u00fdt odlo\u017eena, proto\u017ee Trump i Netanjahu vstupuj\u00ed do obdob\u00ed nejistoty p\u0159ed volbami. Trump by mohl pohrozit, \u017ee \u00cdr\u00e1n \u201evyhlad\u00ed\u201c, pokud se mu nepodd\u00e1 a nepoklon\u00ed se, ale je ot\u00e1zkou, zda si USA vzhledem ke sv\u00fdm omezen\u00fdm z\u00e1sob\u00e1m munice dok\u00e1\u017eou udr\u017eet svou vojenskou p\u0159\u00edtomnost v regionu dlouhodob\u011b. Nicm\u00e9n\u011b dal\u0161\u00ed kolo intenzivn\u00ed kinetick\u00e9 v\u00e1lky je vysoce pravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9 \u2013 a v \u00cdr\u00e1nu v\u0161eobecn\u011b o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1no.<\/span><\/p>\n

Kr\u00e1tk\u00fd, \u201evysoce v\u00fdkonn\u00fd\u201c americk\u00fd vojensk\u00fd \u00fader proti \u00cdr\u00e1nu je mo\u017en\u00fd, ale dos\u00e1hl by jen m\u00e1lo \u2013 a nic strategick\u00e9ho.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tak\u017ee, kdo v t\u00e9to \u201ev\u00e1lce\u201c prohr\u00e1v\u00e1? Izrael \u2013 a Netanjahu. Netanjahu je ve volb\u00e1ch tak\u00e9 pod obrovsk\u00fdm tlakem.<\/span><\/p>\n

O\u010dek\u00e1van\u00fd triumf Izraele nad Bl\u00edzk\u00fdm v\u00fdchodem se neuskute\u010dnil. Zastavila se i kombinovan\u00e1 revolu\u010dn\u00ed v\u00e1lka proti Rusku a obl\u00e9h\u00e1n\u00ed \u010c\u00edny a zpochyb\u0148ov\u00e1n je i (zat\u00edm neot\u0159esiteln\u00fd) vliv Izraele na USA.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pot\u00e9, co Netanjahu v roce 2015 p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010dil Trumpa k odstoupen\u00ed od JCPOA, za\u010dali p\u0159edn\u00ed izrael\u0161t\u00ed bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed koment\u00e1to\u0159i na\u0159\u00edkat nad jejich strategick\u00fdm omylem jako nad \u201ejedn\u00edm z nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edch strategick\u00fdch omyl\u016f 21. stolet\u00ed\u201c. Je pozoruhodn\u00e9, \u017ee n\u011bkte\u0159\u00ed v Izraeli \u2013 v\u010detn\u011b vysoce postaven\u00fdch vojensk\u00fdch p\u0159edstavitel\u016f \u2013 ji\u017e na\u0159\u00edkaj\u00ed nad atent\u00e1tem na nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00edho v\u016fdce Al\u00edho Chamene\u00edho z 28. \u00fanora 2026. \u201eAlespo\u0148 jsme v\u011bd\u011bli, na \u010dem s Chamene\u00edm stoj\u00edme,\u201c \u0159ekl Benu Caspitovi vysoce postaven\u00fd izraelsk\u00fd vojensk\u00fd zdroj.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201e[Chamene\u00ed] m\u011bl \u010derven\u00e9 linie, m\u011bl strategii a do jist\u00e9 m\u00edry byl rozv\u00e1\u017en\u00fd. V \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9m \u0161\u00edlenstv\u00ed byla ur\u010dit\u00e1 stabilita. Sou\u010dasn\u00e9 veden\u00ed je mnohem m\u00e9n\u011b stabiln\u00ed, mnohem extr\u00e9mn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed a nep\u0159edv\u00eddateln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed. Jsou opojeni moc\u00ed a aroganc\u00ed, p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010deni, \u017ee porazili Ameriku i Izrael.\u201c<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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Zdroj<\/span><\/a><\/span><\/h3>\n

 <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Zat\u00edmco Hormuzsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 blokov\u00e1n a frakce v B\u00edl\u00e9m dom\u011b mezi sebou nad\u00e1le bojuj\u00ed \u2013…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":110318,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[38,107,1503,1505,37],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/110317"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=110317"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/110317\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/110318"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=110317"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=110317"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=110317"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}