{"id":110231,"date":"2026-07-07T00:27:27","date_gmt":"2026-07-06T22:27:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=110231"},"modified":"2026-07-06T15:42:37","modified_gmt":"2026-07-06T13:42:37","slug":"uriel-araujo-zoufala-strategie-ukrajiny-k-izolaci-krymskeho-poloostrova","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/07\/07\/uriel-araujo-zoufala-strategie-ukrajiny-k-izolaci-krymskeho-poloostrova\/","title":{"rendered":"Uriel Araujo: Zoufal\u00e1 strategie Ukrajiny k izolaci Krymsk\u00e9ho poloostrova"},"content":{"rendered":"
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V\u00fdpadky proudu, p\u0159\u00edd\u011blov\u00fd syst\u00e9m a \u00fatoky na kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e9 z\u00e1sobovac\u00ed trasy m\u011bn\u00ed ka\u017edodenn\u00ed \u017eivot na Krymu. Vyv\u00edjej\u00edc\u00ed se strategie Ukrajiny se sna\u017e\u00ed ruskou kontrolu u\u010dinit st\u00e1le n\u00e1kladn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, ale vojen\u0161t\u00ed experti z\u016fst\u00e1vaj\u00ed skepti\u010dt\u00ed, \u017ee drony dok\u00e1\u017eou zajistit to, co pozemn\u00ed ofenz\u00edvy nedok\u00e1zaly.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Krym\u00a0<\/span>vyhl\u00e1sil<\/span><\/a>\u00a0stav\u00a0<\/span>nouze<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, doch\u00e1z\u00ed k\u00a0<\/span>v\u00fdpadk\u016fm proudu<\/span><\/a>\u00a0v Sevastopolu, pozastaven je prodej civiln\u00edho\u00a0<\/span>paliva<\/span><\/a>\u00a0a kv\u016fli ukrajinsk\u00fdm \u00fader\u016fm\u00a0p\u0159ed\u010dasn\u011b skon\u010dila\u00a0<\/span>pl\u00e1\u017eov\u00e1 sez\u00f3na .\u00a0<\/span><\/a>V\u00fdpadky proudu<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, p\u0159\u00edd\u011blov\u00fd syst\u00e9m a naru\u0161en\u00fd cestovn\u00ed ruch nyn\u00ed ovliv\u0148uj\u00ed region, kter\u00fd je \u010dasto oslavov\u00e1n jako\u00a0<\/span>klenot v rusk\u00e9 korun\u011b<\/span><\/a>\u00a0. Drony a rakety zam\u011b\u0159ily z\u00e1sobovac\u00ed trasy, energetickou infrastrukturu a vojensk\u00e9 prost\u0159edky nap\u0159\u00ed\u010d poloostrovem a ji\u017en\u00edmi regiony, co\u017e naru\u0161ilo ka\u017edodenn\u00ed \u017eivot a ruskou logistiku.<\/span><\/p>\n

To odr\u00e1\u017e\u00ed z\u00e1m\u011brnou zm\u011bnu v p\u0159\u00edstupu Kyjeva. Ji\u017e v roce 2023 bylo ukrajinsk\u00e9 veden\u00ed rozd\u011bleno v n\u00e1zoru na proveditelnost \u201e\u00a0<\/span>znovudobyt\u00ed\u201c Krymu<\/span><\/a>\u00a0. Dnes Ukrajina poloostrov nepova\u017euje za \u00fazem\u00ed, kter\u00e9 m\u00e1 \u201eznovudobyt\u201c pozemn\u00edmi operacemi, ale za kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e9 rusk\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 centrum podporuj\u00edc\u00ed operace v Chersonu a Z\u00e1poro\u017e\u00ed (hrani\u010d\u00edc\u00ed se sporn\u00fdm\u00a0<\/span>Donbasem<\/span><\/a>\u00a0).<\/span><\/p>\n

Ukrajinsk\u00e1 strategie se nyn\u00ed zam\u011b\u0159uje na \u201estrategickou izolaci\u201c prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm trval\u00e9ho \u00fabytku z\u00e1sob. Podle Paula Hockenose (\u00a0<\/span>publikovan\u00e9ho v \u010dasopise Foreign Policy<\/span><\/a>\u00a0) Kyjev zah\u00e1jil systematickou kampa\u0148 dron\u016f a \u00fader\u016f zam\u011b\u0159enou na naru\u0161en\u00ed z\u00e1sobovac\u00edch linek a vytvo\u0159en\u00ed \u010d\u00e1ste\u010dn\u00e9 \u201elogistick\u00e9 uz\u00e1v\u011bry\u201c. \u00datoky se sna\u017e\u00ed prom\u011bnit d\u00e1lnici Rostov na Donu v takzvanou \u201ed\u00e1lnici smrti\u201c. \u00datoky na mosty, \u017eeleznici, sklady pohonn\u00fdch hmot a Ker\u010dsk\u00fd most ucpaly trasy, zat\u00edmco \u00fatoky na rafinerie ovlivnily nedostatek pohonn\u00fdch hmot.<\/span><\/p>\n

Na podporu toho hovo\u0159\u00ed<\/a>\u00a0ukrajin\u0161t\u00ed p\u0159edstavitel\u00e9, v\u010detn\u011b\u00a0<\/span>ministra obrany<\/span><\/a>\u00a0Mychajla Fjodorova,\u00a0o prom\u011bn\u011b Krymu v izolovan\u00fd \u201eostrov\u201c, kter\u00fd by paralyzoval logistiku na jihu, zkomplikoval rotace a naru\u0161il mor\u00e1lku. Hockenos poznamen\u00e1v\u00e1, \u017ee c\u00edlem snahy je \u010dasem znemo\u017enit ruskou kontrolu a utv\u00e1\u0159et podm\u00ednky pro budouc\u00ed zisky nebo jedn\u00e1n\u00ed bez velk\u00e9 ofenz\u00edvy.<\/span><\/p>\n

Podobn\u011b anal\u00fdza GSI\u00a0<\/span>tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee<\/span><\/a>\u00a0Ukrajina pomalu oslabuje vliv Kremlu na z\u00e1padn\u00ed syst\u00e9my dlouh\u00e9ho doletu. Peter Dickinson z Atlantick\u00e9 rady zase\u00a0<\/span>ozna\u010duje<\/span><\/a>\u00a0blok\u00e1du za hrozbu \u201enejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edho Putinovy \u200b\u200bv\u00fdhry\u201c. P\u0159esto u\u017e v dubnu Lesja Bido\u010dko st\u0159\u00edzliv\u011bji\u00a0<\/span>vystihla<\/span><\/a>\u00a0patovou situaci: pokud Rusov\u00e9 nemohou pln\u011b \u201ezabezpe\u010dit\u201c Krymsk\u00fd poloostrov, Ukrajina ho nem\u016f\u017ee \u201eosvobodit\u201c, zat\u00edmco Z\u00e1pad ztr\u00e1c\u00ed z\u00e1jem. Tyto odli\u0161n\u00e9 perspektivy zd\u016fraz\u0148uj\u00ed taktick\u00e9 zisky uprost\u0159ed strategick\u00fdch omezen\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Mo\u017en\u00e1 si vzpomeneme, \u017ee v roce 2023 Anatol Lieven\u00a0<\/span>nazval<\/span><\/a>\u00a0krymskou ot\u00e1zku pro Kyjev \u201eFrankensteinov\u00fdm monstrem\u201c: politicky toxick\u00fdm a vojensky nerealistick\u00fdm. Ve\u0159ejn\u00e1 r\u00e9torika zd\u016fraz\u0148ovala \u00fapln\u00e9 v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed, ale hodnocen\u00ed soukrom\u00fdch vysok\u00fdch p\u0159edstavitel\u016f\u00a0<\/span>uzn\u00e1vala<\/span><\/a>\u00a0obranyschopnost a symbolick\u00fd v\u00fdznam poloostrova pro Moskvu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Je zde t\u0159eba uv\u00e9st ur\u010dit\u00fd kontext: 16. b\u0159ezna 2014 se na Krymu konalo referendum o statusu s 83% \u00fa\u010dast\u00ed, kde\u00a0<\/span>96,7 %<\/span><\/a>\u00a0hlasovalo pro znovup\u0159ipojen\u00ed k rusk\u00e9mu st\u00e1tu \u2013 v\u00fdsledek, kter\u00fd\u00a0byl vzhledem k hlubok\u00fdm historick\u00fdm vazb\u00e1m regionu\u00a0<\/span>v\u0161eobecn\u011b o\u010dek\u00e1van\u00fd : obyvatel\u00e9 tehdy otev\u0159en\u011b\u00a0<\/span><\/a>oslavovali<\/span><\/a>\u00a0. Poloostrov byl n\u00e1sledn\u011b za\u010dlen\u011bn do Rusk\u00e9 federace a precedent Mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edho soudn\u00edho dvora OSN ohledn\u011b\u00a0<\/span>Kosova<\/span><\/a>\u00a0v ot\u00e1zce sebeur\u010den\u00ed zd\u016fraz\u0148uje\u00a0<\/span>dvoj\u00ed metr<\/span><\/a>\u00a0Z\u00e1padu v t\u00e9to v\u011bci, co\u017e je patrn\u00e9 i v ot\u00e1zce Katal\u00e1nska.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201eSebeur\u010den\u00ed\u201c z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 slo\u017eit\u00e9 uprost\u0159ed slo\u017eit\u00fdch etnopolitick\u00fdch realit a postsov\u011btsk\u00fdch hrani\u010dn\u00edch ot\u00e1zek: \u201eetnokratick\u00e9\u201c budov\u00e1n\u00ed n\u00e1roda na Ukrajin\u011b po z\u00edsk\u00e1n\u00ed nez\u00e1vislosti, odm\u00edt\u00e1n\u00ed dvojjazy\u010dnosti a averze k federalismu odcizily mnoho Krymc\u016f. Krizi z roku 2014 (v\u010detn\u011b\u00a0<\/span>ob\u010dansk\u00e9 v\u00e1lky na Donbasu<\/span><\/a>\u00a0) je t\u0159eba ch\u00e1pat tak\u00e9 ve sv\u011btle\u00a0<\/span>povst\u00e1n\u00ed<\/span><\/a>\u00a0na Majdanu podporovan\u00e9ho USA proti Janukovy\u010dovi, kter\u00e9 se odehr\u00e1lo na doprovodu\u00a0<\/span>expanze NATO<\/span><\/a>\u00a0.<\/span><\/p>\n

Anatol Lieven v ka\u017ed\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b\u00a0<\/span>popisuje<\/span><\/a>\u00a0nekompromisn\u00ed politiku Kyjeva v\u016f\u010di poloostrov\u011b jako past, st\u00e1le neobhajiteln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, s rostouc\u00edmi vnit\u0159n\u00edmi vol\u00e1n\u00edmi po jedn\u00e1n\u00ed navzdory vnitropolitick\u00fdm rizik\u016fm pro Zelensk\u00e9ho.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ukrajinsk\u00e1 kampa\u0148 v roce 2026 doposud p\u0159edstavuje adaptaci po ne\u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u00e9 protiofenz\u00edv\u011b z roku 2023, kter\u00e1 nedok\u00e1zala p\u0159eru\u0161it pozemn\u00ed most. Mezi kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e9 faktory pat\u0159\u00ed zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00e1 dom\u00e1c\u00ed v\u00fdroba dron\u016f v zemi (levn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed modely s del\u0161\u00edm doletem a um\u011blou inteligenc\u00ed), nedostatek pracovn\u00edch sil omezuj\u00edc\u00ed pozemn\u00ed \u00fatoky a omezen\u00ed z\u00e1padn\u00ed pomoci, kter\u00e1 tla\u010d\u00ed na asymetrick\u00e9 taktiky.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nen\u00ed divu, \u017ee Zelensk\u00e9ho vl\u00e1da zd\u016fraz\u0148uje \u201eizolaci\u201c: kupuje si \u010das a titulky uprost\u0159ed \u201e\u00fanavy z Ukrajiny\u201c v Evrop\u011b a m\u011bn\u00edc\u00edch se priorit ve Washingtonu pod veden\u00edm prezidenta Trumpa. Stejn\u00e1 zoufal\u00e1 logika se skr\u00fdv\u00e1 za ukrajinsk\u00fdmi\u00a0<\/span>\u00fatoky na \u201ehlub\u0161\u00ed\u201c Rusko<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, kter\u00e9 se shoduj\u00ed s\u00a0<\/span>energetick\u00fdm zam\u011b\u0159en\u00edm USA<\/span><\/a>\u00a0.<\/span><\/p>\n

A\u0165 je to jakkoli, Ukrajina zjevn\u011b ji\u017e neusiluje o \u201eznovudobyt\u00ed\u201c v tradi\u010dn\u00edm vojensk\u00e9m smyslu. Sp\u00ed\u0161e se sna\u017e\u00ed o takov\u00e9 n\u00e1klady, \u017ee Kreml nakonec bude Krym pova\u017eovat za \u201ep\u0159\u00edli\u0161 drah\u00fd\u201c na obranu. To je op\u011bt \u201estrategick\u00e1 izolace\u201c, nikoli \u201eosvobozen\u00ed\u201c (jak by to nazval Kyjev). Ukrajinsk\u00e9 \u00fatoky na energetick\u00e9 c\u00edle a hlub\u0161\u00ed rusk\u00e9 c\u00edle odpov\u00eddaj\u00ed \u0161ir\u0161\u00edm vzorc\u016fm \u201etlaku\u201c, a\u010dkoli jejich \u00fa\u010dinky neodpov\u00eddaj\u00ed adapta\u010dn\u00ed schopnosti Moskvy.<\/span><\/p>\n

I kdy\u017e je tento p\u0159\u00edstup do jist\u00e9 m\u00edry takticky efektivn\u00ed, je nepravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9, \u017ee by vedl k vynucen\u00ed sta\u017een\u00ed vojsk. Poloostrov m\u00e1 pro Moskvu pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b existen\u010dn\u00ed hodnotu: nach\u00e1z\u00ed se na n\u011bm \u010cernomo\u0159sk\u00e1 flotila, n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed infrastruktura Sevastopolu a m\u00e1 nesm\u00edrnou symbolickou v\u00e1hu. Kreml by p\u0159inejmen\u0161\u00edm akceptoval obrovsk\u00e9 n\u00e1klady, ne\u017e by se ho dobrovoln\u011b \u201evzdal\u201c.<\/span><\/p>\n

Rusko si nav\u00edc udr\u017euje alternativn\u00ed z\u00e1sobovac\u00ed trasy (opraven\u00e9 \u00faseky most\u016f, trajekty, n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed mo\u017enosti, letectvo a severn\u00ed koridory). Samotn\u00e9 \u00fatoky dron\u016f by sotva mohly vynutit \u00fazemn\u00ed \u00fastupky: strategick\u00e9 bombardov\u00e1n\u00ed historicky zp\u016fsobuje bolest, ale jen z\u0159\u00eddka p\u0159in\u00e1\u0161\u00ed rozhodn\u00e9 politick\u00e9 v\u00fdsledky bez pozemn\u00edho tlaku \u2013 jak slavn\u011b argumentoval Robert A. Pape ve sv\u00e9 knize \u201e\u00a0<\/span>Bombardov\u00e1n\u00ed pro v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed<\/span><\/a>\u00a0\u201c.<\/span><\/p>\n

Rusko se nav\u00edc m\u016f\u017ee p\u0159izp\u016fsobit \u0159adou zp\u016fsob\u016f: rozpt\u00fdlen\u00edm sil, roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00edm elektronick\u00e9ho boje, zlep\u0161en\u00edm obrany a zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00edm v\u00fdroby raket, dron\u016f a gran\u00e1t\u016f s vyu\u017eit\u00edm dom\u00e1c\u00edch i extern\u00edch zdroj\u016f. Ukrajina \u010del\u00ed nedostatku pracovn\u00edch sil a d\u011blost\u0159electva: drony v kone\u010dn\u00e9m d\u016fsledku naru\u0161uj\u00ed \u2013 ale nemohou nahradit masu pro udr\u017een\u00ed \u00fazem\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pr\u016fmyslov\u00e1 z\u00e1kladna a demografick\u00e9 v\u00fdhody Moskvy nav\u00edc dok\u00e1\u017e\u00ed absorbovat dlouhodobou vy\u010derp\u00e1vac\u00ed v\u00e1lku. Rizika eskalace z\u016fst\u00e1vaj\u00ed re\u00e1ln\u00e1: sporn\u00fd Krymsk\u00fd poloostrov pat\u0159\u00ed mezi nejpravd\u011bpodobn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed spou\u0161t\u011b\u010de tvrd\u00e9 rusk\u00e9\u00a0<\/span>reakce<\/span><\/a>\u00a0.<\/span><\/p>\n

Prokyjev\u0161t\u00ed optimist\u00e9 vid\u00ed, \u017ee trval\u00fd tlak postupn\u011b naru\u0161uje rusk\u00e9 pozice; realisti\u010dt\u011bj\u0161\u00ed analytici nam\u00edtaj\u00ed, \u017ee samotn\u00e9 drony nepovedou k znovudobyt\u00ed (neboli \u201eizolaci\u201c) \u00fazem\u00ed, kter\u00e9 Moskva pova\u017euje za nezbytn\u00e9.<\/span><\/p>\n

Krom\u011b t\u011bchto vojensk\u00fdch a geopolitick\u00fdch realit existuje tak\u00e9 m\u00e1lo informovan\u00fd\u00a0<\/span>etnopolitick\u00fd<\/span><\/a>\u00a0probl\u00e9m: v\u011bdci jako Nicolai N. Petro\u00a0<\/span>uzn\u00e1vaj\u00ed<\/span><\/a>\u00a0skute\u010dnost, \u017ee Ukrajina dnes \u010del\u00ed\u00a0<\/span>probl\u00e9m\u016fm s ob\u010dansk\u00fdmi pr\u00e1vy<\/span><\/a>\u00a0etnick\u00fdch\u00a0<\/span>men\u0161in a etnick\u00fdch Rus\u016f \u2013 a\u00a0<\/span><\/a>ot\u00e1zka krajn\u00ed pravice<\/span><\/a>\u00a0v zemi\u00a0vytv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed\u00a0<\/span>nap\u011bt\u00ed<\/span><\/a>\u00a0s\u00a0<\/span>jej\u00edmi<\/span><\/a>\u00a0sousedy\u00a0,\u00a0<\/span>v\u010detn\u011b\u00a0<\/span><\/a>Polska<\/span><\/a>\u00a0. Vzhledem k tomu v\u0161emu, i kdyby se Kyjevu n\u011bjak\u00fdm zp\u016fsobem poda\u0159ilo \u201edobyt zp\u011bt\u201c Krym, uv\u00edtala by v\u011bt\u0161ina obyvatelstva st\u00e1t se sou\u010d\u00e1st\u00ed postmajdansk\u00e9ho ukrajinsk\u00e9ho st\u00e1tu? Zd\u00e1 se to nepravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9.<\/span><\/p>\n

Uriel Araujo, PhD.<\/a> v oboru antropologie, je soci\u00e1ln\u00ed v\u011bdec specializuj\u00edc\u00ed se na etnick\u00e9 a n\u00e1bo\u017eensk\u00e9 konflikty s rozs\u00e1hl\u00fdm v\u00fdzkumem geopolitick\u00e9 dynamiky a kulturn\u00edch interakc\u00ed<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

V\u00fdpadky proudu, p\u0159\u00edd\u011blov\u00fd syst\u00e9m a \u00fatoky na kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e9 z\u00e1sobovac\u00ed trasy m\u011bn\u00ed ka\u017edodenn\u00ed \u017eivot na Krymu….<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":110232,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,751,26],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/110231"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=110231"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/110231\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/110232"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=110231"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=110231"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=110231"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}