{"id":110204,"date":"2026-07-07T00:18:32","date_gmt":"2026-07-06T22:18:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=110204"},"modified":"2026-07-06T10:29:37","modified_gmt":"2026-07-06T08:29:37","slug":"pepe-escobar-je-kocka-z-mou-mrtva-ziva-nebo-v-komatu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/07\/07\/pepe-escobar-je-kocka-z-mou-mrtva-ziva-nebo-v-komatu\/","title":{"rendered":"Pepe Escobar: Je ko\u010dka z MoU mrtv\u00e1, \u017eiv\u00e1 nebo v k\u00f3matu?"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Ko\u010dka s memorandem o porozum\u011bn\u00ed by se m\u011bla co nejrychleji dostat z k\u00f3matu. Jinak nastane tot\u00e1ln\u00ed, ni\u010div\u00fd chaos.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Ti neuv\u011b\u0159iteln\u011b punti\u010dk\u00e1\u0159\u0161t\u00ed Per\u0161an\u00e9.<\/span><\/p>\n

Jak lze Barbarii p\u0159im\u011bt pochopit, \u017ee mus\u00ed implementovat odstavce 1, 4, 5, 10 a 11 Memoranda o porozum\u011bn\u00ed (MoU), kter\u00e9 jej\u00ed vlastn\u00ed prezident podepsal ve Versailles?<\/span><\/p>\n

Zejm\u00e9na odstavec 1: vytvo\u0159en\u00ed mechanismu pro \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed konflikt\u016f v Libanonu; odstavec 10: o v\u00fdvozu \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 ropy a petrochemick\u00fdch produkt\u016f; a odstavec 11: o uvoln\u011bn\u00ed zmrazen\u00fdch \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fdch aktiv.<\/span><\/p>\n

V\u0161echny tyto ambici\u00f3zn\u00ed c\u00edle. Spolu s t\u00edm, \u017ee neexistuje absolutn\u011b \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e1 z\u00e1ruka, \u017ee Exceptionalistan, neschopn\u00fd jak\u00fdchkoli dohod (Copyright: Sergej Lavrov), v\u016fbec ch\u00e1pe, \u017ee z\u00e1vazky jsou nyn\u00ed bilater\u00e1ln\u00ed: pokud je poru\u0161\u00edte vy, poru\u0161\u00ed je i druh\u00e1 strana.<\/span><\/p>\n

A nyn\u00ed k hlavn\u00edmu \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9mu vyjednava\u010di, p\u0159edsedovi parlamentu Ghalibafovi. Za\u010d\u00e1tkem tohoto t\u00fddne, p\u0159ed propracovan\u00fdmi smute\u010dn\u00edmi ob\u0159ady v Teher\u00e1nu, Qomu a Ma\u0161hadu v souvislosti s poh\u0159bem zavra\u017ed\u011bn\u00e9ho v\u016fdce ajatoll\u00e1ha Chamene\u00edho, Ghalibaf prohl\u00e1sil, \u017ee jedn\u00e1n\u00ed s USA skon\u010dila (zv\u00fdrazn\u011bn\u00ed moje).<\/span><\/p>\n

P\u0159eklad: \u00cdr\u00e1n se ani o p\u00ed\u010f nepohne v diskusi o mo\u017en\u00e9 kone\u010dn\u00e9 dohod\u011b, dokud Washington pln\u011b neimplementuje v\u00fd\u0161e zm\u00edn\u011bn\u00fdch p\u011bt klauzul\u00ed memoranda o porozum\u011bn\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

To logicky vypl\u00fdv\u00e1 ze skute\u010dnosti, \u017ee \u00cdr\u00e1n vyslal do \u0160v\u00fdcarska delegaci na vysok\u00e9 \u00farovni, aby projednala prov\u00e1d\u011bn\u00ed 14bodov\u00e9ho memoranda o porozum\u011bn\u00ed, a nikoli (zv\u00fdrazn\u011bn\u00ed moje) aby vyjednala novou dohodu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Dal\u0161\u00ed d\u016fkaz: \u010cl\u00e1nek 13 memoranda o porozum\u011bn\u00ed stanov\u00ed, \u017ee jedn\u00e1n\u00ed o kone\u010dn\u00e9 dohod\u011b za\u010dnou a\u017e po spln\u011bn\u00ed odstavc\u016f 1, 4, 5, 10 a 11.<\/span><\/p>\n

Teoreticky by mohl b\u00fdt z\u0159\u00edzen spole\u010dn\u00fd \u00edr\u00e1nsko-americko-libanonsk\u00fd v\u00fdbor, kter\u00fd by monitoroval implementaci \u2013 ale z Washingtonu neexistuje \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 ofici\u00e1ln\u00ed potvrzen\u00ed, proto\u017ee USA de facto nejsou ochotny a\/nebo schopny kontrolovat kult smrti v z\u00e1padn\u00ed Asii.<\/span><\/p>\n

Mezit\u00edm byla Trumpova n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed blok\u00e1da zru\u0161ena. \u00cdr\u00e1n v posledn\u00edch dnech vyvezl t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 50 milion\u016f barel\u016f ropy \u2013 za ceny zhruba o 20 procent vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e v ned\u00e1vn\u00e9 minulosti.<\/span><\/p>\n

Voln\u00fd pr\u016fjezd Hormuzsk\u00fdm pr\u016flivem v\u0161ak plat\u00ed pouze 60 dn\u00ed. Pot\u00e9 si Teher\u00e1n \u2013 a Maskat \u2013 vyb\u00edraj\u00ed poplatky: koneckonc\u016f, \u00cdr\u00e1n a Om\u00e1n maj\u00ed suver\u00e9nn\u00ed pr\u00e1vo na lodn\u00ed dopravu v jejich teritori\u00e1ln\u00edch vod\u00e1ch.<\/span><\/p>\n

Kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fd bod: \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fd raketov\u00fd program, cel\u00e1 organizace Osy odporu a \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e1 jadern\u00e1 pr\u00e1va jsou, jak Ghalibaf opakovan\u011b zd\u016fraz\u0148oval, body, o kter\u00fdch se ned\u00e1 vyjedn\u00e1vat.<\/span><\/p>\n

Bez obalu prohl\u00e1sil, \u017ee \u00cdr\u00e1n je \u201ep\u0159ipraven na v\u00e1lku\u201c, pokud Trump 2.0 nedodr\u017e\u00ed podm\u00ednky memoranda o porozum\u011bn\u00ed. Z\u00e1rove\u0148 poznamenal, \u017ee v\u00fdhoda \u00cdr\u00e1nu v Hormuzsk\u00e9m pr\u016flivu spo\u010d\u00edv\u00e1 v zaji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed efektivn\u00edho fungov\u00e1n\u00ed pr\u016flivu, nikoli v jeho uzav\u0159en\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Trump a Vance si hraj\u00ed hry<\/span><\/p>\n

Nyn\u00ed porovnejte v\u0161e v\u00fd\u0161e uveden\u00e9, co logicky vypl\u00fdv\u00e1 z toho, co bylo podeps\u00e1no mezi Washingtonem a Teher\u00e1nem, s rozhovorem, kter\u00fd poskytl viceprezident J. D. Vance za\u010d\u00e1tkem tohoto t\u00fddne, v n\u011bm\u017e p\u0159izn\u00e1v\u00e1, \u017ee prezidentsk\u00e9 duo podepsalo memorandum o porozum\u011bn\u00ed pouze proto, aby \u201epos\u00edlilo na\u0161e akcie\u201c a \u201em\u011blo v\u00edce karet v ruce\u201c, a\u017e uplyne dohodnut\u00fdch 60 dn\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

To je v souladu s n\u00e1zorem ministra zahrani\u010d\u00ed Rubia, kter\u00fd 25. \u010dervna p\u0159edsedal ministersk\u00e9mu zased\u00e1n\u00ed Rady pro spolupr\u00e1ci v Persk\u00e9m z\u00e1livu (GCC), kter\u00e9 v podstat\u011b odm\u00edtlo kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e1 ustanoven\u00ed memoranda o porozum\u011bn\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

V jednom prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed se tvrdilo, \u017ee \u201etrval\u00fd region\u00e1ln\u00ed m\u00edr a bezpe\u010dnost\u201c vy\u017eaduj\u00ed \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed \u201ecel\u00e9ho spektra hrozeb, kter\u00e9 p\u0159edstavuje \u00cdr\u00e1n\u201c, v\u010detn\u011b balistick\u00fdch raket, dron\u016f a \u201ez\u00e1stupn\u00e9 podpory\u201c.<\/span><\/p>\n

Z\u00e1v\u011br je nevyhnuteln\u00fd: Z pohledu Trumpa 2.0 je memorandum o porozum\u011bn\u00ed pouze zdr\u017eovac\u00ed taktikou, a to i s p\u0159ihl\u00e9dnut\u00edm k rozkolu mezi Vancem a Rubiem.<\/span><\/p>\n

Hrozby nezmiz\u00ed. Stra\u0161idlo obnoven\u00e9 v\u00e1lky p\u0159etrv\u00e1v\u00e1 \u2013 spolu se sou\u010dasn\u00fdm stup\u0148ov\u00e1n\u00edm operac\u00ed leteck\u00e9ho z\u00e1sobov\u00e1n\u00ed. A to v\u0161e navzdory skute\u010dnosti, \u017ee pokus o cokoli hloup\u00e9ho p\u0159ed volbami v polovin\u011b volebn\u00edho obdob\u00ed by byl politickou sebevra\u017edou. Nikdy by se nem\u011bl podce\u0148ovat stupe\u0148 demence v sou\u010dasn\u00e9m B\u00edl\u00e9m dom\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n

V ostr\u00e9m kontrastu se nyn\u00ed obrac\u00edme ke skupin\u011b racion\u00e1ln\u00edch akt\u00e9r\u016f, kte\u0159\u00ed se sna\u017e\u00ed vn\u00e9st do B\u00edl\u00e9ho domu tolik pot\u0159ebn\u00fd rozum. Ten poch\u00e1z\u00ed p\u0159\u00edmo od t\u011bch, kte\u0159\u00ed d\u0159\u00edve sed\u011bli u jednac\u00edho stolu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Titulek zde uv\u00e1d\u00ed, \u017ee minul\u00e9 \u00fater\u00fd skon\u010dily rozhovory na vysok\u00e9 \u00farovni mezi \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fdm a p\u00e1kist\u00e1nsk\u00fdm st\u00e1tem. Teher\u00e1n a Isl\u00e1m\u00e1b\u00e1d dos\u00e1hly spole\u010dn\u00e9 dohody o mimo\u0159\u00e1dn\u011b obt\u00ed\u017en\u00e9 cest\u011b vp\u0159ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

P\u00e1kist\u00e1nsk\u00fd zvl\u00e1\u0161tn\u00ed vyslanec, ministr vnitra Mohsin Naqvi, odjel do Rij\u00e1du s v\u00e1\u017en\u00fdm \u00fakolem: osobn\u011b potvrdit MbS, \u017ee \u00cdr\u00e1n, Sa\u00fadsk\u00e1 Ar\u00e1bie, Om\u00e1n a Katar jsou na stejn\u00e9 vln\u011b, koordinovan\u00e9 diplomaci\u00ed Isl\u00e1m\u00e1b\u00e1du.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tuto skupinu spojuje pevn\u00e9 odhodl\u00e1n\u00ed: Trumpovi, i p\u0159es ve\u0161kerou jeho nep\u0159edv\u00eddatelnost, by se nem\u011blo dovolit znovu rozdm\u00fdchat v\u00e1lku.<\/span><\/p>\n

P\u00e1kist\u00e1n\u0161t\u00ed medi\u00e1to\u0159i, kte\u0159\u00ed jednali a\u017e do \u00fater\u00fd, znovu potvrdili, \u017ee \u00cdr\u00e1n a Om\u00e1n \u2013 s kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fdm \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fdm po\u017eehn\u00e1n\u00edm \u2013 ji\u017e u\u010dinily \u201eneodvolateln\u00e9 suver\u00e9nn\u00ed rozhodnut\u00ed\u201c ohledn\u011b v\u00fdkonu sv\u00e9 suverenity za \u00fa\u010delem kontroly a spr\u00e1vy Hormuzsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu.<\/span><\/p>\n

To zahrnuje v\u00fdb\u011br dan\u00ed, odminov\u00e1n\u00ed, bezpe\u010dn\u00fd pr\u016fchod a cel\u00fd apar\u00e1t. Teher\u00e1n a Maskat odm\u00edtly jakoukoli zahrani\u010dn\u00ed roli \u2013 zejm\u00e9na roli USA, ale i EU; Maskat to ji\u017e Evropan\u016fm p\u0159\u00edmo sd\u011blil.<\/span><\/p>\n

Co z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 \u201ev procesu\u201c, je mechanika, nikoli rozhodnut\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

M\u00e1me tu tedy \u010dty\u0159strannou dohodu: \u00cdr\u00e1n, Om\u00e1n, P\u00e1kist\u00e1n a \u010c\u00edna \u2013 kter\u00e1 by m\u011bla vzniknout bezprost\u0159edn\u011b po smute\u010dn\u00edch ob\u0159adech za zesnul\u00e9ho nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00edho v\u016fdce ajatoll\u00e1ha Chamene\u00edho.<\/span><\/p>\n

Osa \u00cdr\u00e1n-Om\u00e1n je p\u0159\u00edmo propojena s v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed strategickou osou \u00cdr\u00e1n-\u010c\u00edna-Rusko.<\/span><\/p>\n

Kabuki, kter\u00e9 vede k nov\u00e9 bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed architektu\u0159e?<\/span><\/p>\n

Pokud jde o memorandum o porozum\u011bn\u00ed, m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt v hlubok\u00e9m k\u00f3matu, ale st\u00e1le \u017eije. Pod povrchem prob\u00edhaj\u00ed diskuse. P\u00e1kist\u00e1n\u0161t\u00ed medi\u00e1to\u0159i \u2013 ti, kte\u0159\u00ed byli u jednac\u00edho stolu a\u017e do \u00fater\u00fd \u2013 d\u011blaj\u00ed v\u0161e pro to, aby memorandum udr\u017eeli p\u0159i \u017eivot\u011b na 100 procent, nikoli na 99 procent. Sou\u010dasn\u00e1 pauza je z\u00e1m\u011brn\u00e1 \u2013 p\u0159\u00e1n\u00e1 \u00cdr\u00e1nu \u2013 a nen\u00ed v\u00fdsledkem kolapsu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Samoz\u0159ejm\u011b se v sou\u010dasn\u00e9 dob\u011b odehr\u00e1v\u00e1 rozs\u00e1hl\u00e9 Kabuki: velk\u00e1 teatr\u00e1lnost obklopuj\u00edc\u00ed r\u00e1mec, kter\u00fd by se mohl uk\u00e1zat jako struktura, je\u017e v dohledn\u00e9 budoucnosti definuje z\u00e1padn\u00ed Asii geopoliticky a z hlediska toho, kdo co ovl\u00e1d\u00e1.<\/span><\/p>\n

Sledujme tedy aktu\u00e1ln\u00ed stav pen\u011bz b\u011bhem t\u00e9to prob\u00edhaj\u00edc\u00ed f\u00e1ze komatu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Teher\u00e1n vol\u00ed pragmatick\u00fd p\u0159\u00edstup: nejd\u0159\u00edv pen\u00edze, pak se budeme bavit. Podrobnosti ohledn\u011b konkr\u00e9tn\u00edch p\u0159evod\u016f nebo na\u010dasov\u00e1n\u00ed z\u016fst\u00e1vaj\u00ed nejasn\u00e9, ale o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1 se, \u017ee \u00cdr\u00e1n bude m\u00edt do t\u00fddne k dispozici p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 9 miliard dolar\u016f: Spojen\u00e9 arabsk\u00e9 emir\u00e1ty ji\u017e p\u0159evedly 3 miliardy dolar\u016f; Katar a Om\u00e1n by m\u011bly poskytnout zb\u00fdvaj\u00edc\u00edch 6 miliard dolar\u016f. Pokud \u00cdr\u00e1n v p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edch deseti dnech obdr\u017e\u00ed alespo\u0148 6 miliard (a\u017e 9 miliard dolar\u016f), memorandum o porozum\u011bn\u00ed (Moution of Understanding) sice nebude hotovou v\u011bc\u00ed, ale jist\u011b bude velmi aktivn\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Podstata v\u011bci: Teher\u00e1n se v\u017edycky pohybuje sv\u00fdm vlastn\u00edm tempem. Toto tempo je diktov\u00e1no ob\u0159ady spojen\u00fdmi s Chamene\u00edho poh\u0159bem, b\u011bhem kter\u00e9ho maj\u00ed b\u00fdt \u010dty\u0159i \u010dlenov\u00e9 jeho rodiny, v\u010detn\u011b jeho man\u017eelky, znovu poh\u0159beni v Ma\u0161hadu, \u010d\u00edm\u017e se spln\u00ed v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00fd slib.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tak\u017ee bychom si v\u0161ichni m\u011bli b\u00fdt v\u011bdomi toho, \u017ee posledn\u00ed den ceremoni\u00ed je 9. \u010dervence v Ma\u0161hadu. Dal\u0161\u00edm krokem bude ur\u010den\u00ed m\u00edsta nebo m\u00edst, kde se setkaj\u00ed Ameri\u010dan\u00e9, P\u00e1kist\u00e1nci a \u00cdr\u00e1nci.<\/span><\/p>\n

I kdybychom tomu \u0159\u00edkali Isl\u00e1m\u00e1b\u00e1d 2.0 nebo 3.0, v Isl\u00e1m\u00e1b\u00e1du se to neuskute\u010dn\u00ed. Jakmile budou ritu\u00e1ly dokon\u010deny a \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 po\u017eehn\u00e1n\u00ed bude znovu ud\u011bleno, memorandum o porozum\u011bn\u00ed by teoreticky m\u011blo b\u00fdt zp\u011bt. Trump \u2013 zahnan\u00fd do kouta omezen\u00edmi, jako je vy\u010derp\u00e1n\u00ed strategick\u00fdch ropn\u00fdch rezerv (SPR) \u2013 se bude muset vr\u00e1tit k jednac\u00edmu stolu a splnit svou \u010d\u00e1st. Nebo to cel\u00e9 znovu rozhod\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Dal\u0161\u00ed slo\u017eitost existuje ohledn\u011b P\u00e1kist\u00e1nu \u2013 kter\u00fd je z\u00e1rove\u0148 spojencem \u00cdr\u00e1nu\/Om\u00e1nu\/\u010c\u00edny, pokud jde o bezpe\u010dnost Hormuzsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu, a z\u00e1rove\u0148 je hluboce zapojen do vz\u00e1jemn\u00e9ho obrann\u00e9ho vztahu podobn\u00e9ho NATO se Sa\u00fadskou Ar\u00e1bi\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

V r\u00e1mci Dohody o strategick\u00e9 vz\u00e1jemn\u00e9 obran\u011b (SMDA) ze z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed 2025 P\u00e1kist\u00e1n rozm\u00edstil na leteck\u00e9 z\u00e1kladn\u011b kr\u00e1le Abdulazize nejm\u00e9n\u011b 8 000 voj\u00e1k\u016f \u2013 tento po\u010det se brzy o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1 na 13 000 \u2013 spolu s letkami JF-17, drony a \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fdm syst\u00e9mem HQ-9. Ve\u0161ker\u00fd tento p\u0159esun je financov\u00e1n Sa\u00fadskou Ar\u00e1bi\u00ed a je pod p\u00e1kist\u00e1nskou opera\u010dn\u00ed kontrolou. Tito voj\u00e1ci v podstat\u011b chr\u00e1n\u00ed sa\u00fadskou ropu.<\/span><\/p>\n

P\u00e1kist\u00e1nsk\u00e1 opera\u010dn\u00ed pravomoc se nyn\u00ed vztahuje na letectvo, pozemn\u00ed jednotky a \u2013 co\u017e je novinka \u2013 i na n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed slo\u017eky v r\u016fzn\u00fdch \u010d\u00e1stech Sa\u00fadsk\u00e9 Ar\u00e1bie. Jedn\u00e1 se tedy o demonstraci s\u00edly p\u0159i obran\u011b sa\u00fadsk\u00e9ho ropn\u00e9ho koridoru a z\u00e1rove\u0148 o signalizaci odstra\u0161en\u00ed Teher\u00e1nu. Isl\u00e1m\u00e1b\u00e1d to samoz\u0159ejm\u011b musel Teher\u00e1nu b\u011bhem Peseschkianovy n\u00e1v\u0161t\u011bvy podrobn\u011b vysv\u011btlit.<\/span><\/p>\n

Jak by tedy fungovala nov\u00e1, \u017eivotaschopn\u00e1 bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed architektura pro z\u00e1padn\u00ed Asii \u2013 organizovan\u00e1 P\u00e1kist\u00e1nem v cel\u00e9m spektru Rady pro spolupr\u00e1ci arabsk\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f v Persk\u00e9m z\u00e1livu, projedn\u00e1van\u00e1 a schv\u00e1len\u00e1 \u00cdr\u00e1nem a po\u017eehnan\u00e1 \u010c\u00ednou?<\/span><\/p>\n

To by za\u010dalo slo\u017eit\u00fdm procesem normalizace: Podle Isl\u00e1m\u00e1b\u00e1du a Rij\u00e1du by se vztahy mezi \u00cdr\u00e1nem, Sa\u00fadskou Ar\u00e1bi\u00ed a Katarem m\u011bly normalizovat \u201evelmi brzy\u201c. Snadn\u011bji se to \u0159ekne, ne\u017e ud\u011bl\u00e1. Katar by se pot\u00e9 mohl p\u0159ipojit k sa\u00fadskoarabsk\u00e9mu obrann\u00e9mu partnerstv\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fdm probl\u00e9mem je hnut\u00ed Ansar Almighty v Jemenu. Ofici\u00e1ln\u00ed postoj San’\u00e1 je, \u017ee za\u00fato\u010d\u00ed na jak\u00fdkoli st\u00e1t (v\u010detn\u011b Sa\u00fadsk\u00e9 Ar\u00e1bie), kter\u00fd by zasahoval do jej\u00ed blok\u00e1dy izraelskou podporovan\u00e9 lodn\u00ed dopravy v Rud\u00e9m mo\u0159i.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201eDal\u0161\u00ed vlna\u201c by pak mohla zahrnovat Bahrajn a Kuvajt. A mo\u017en\u00e1 i p\u0159ekvapen\u00ed: Egypt. K\u00e1hira m\u00e1 z\u00e1jem o bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed roli po sta\u017een\u00ed americk\u00fdch vojsk a ji\u017e jedn\u00e1 s P\u00e1kist\u00e1nem a Sa\u00fadskou Ar\u00e1bi\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pokud by tento extr\u00e9mn\u011b ambici\u00f3zn\u00ed projekt pokra\u010doval, Spojen\u00e9 arabsk\u00e9 emir\u00e1ty by mohly potenci\u00e1ln\u011b z\u00edskat k\u0159eslo do prosince. A pak je tu vn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed kruh: Turecko a \u00c1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1n. To v\u0161e proto, \u017ee \u010c\u00edna ne\u00fanavn\u011b a obratn\u011b manipuluje se sv\u00fdmi akt\u00e9ry v z\u00e1kulis\u00ed a vnucuje Erdoganovi, \u017ee Peking je jasn\u00fdm strategick\u00fdm v\u00edt\u011bzem americko-izraelsk\u00e9 v\u00e1lky proti \u00cdr\u00e1nu. Podle medi\u00e1tor\u016f Erdogan sehr\u00e1l b\u011bhem nep\u0159\u00edm\u00fdch \u00edr\u00e1nsko-americk\u00fdch jedn\u00e1n\u00ed \u201evelmi podp\u016frnou roli\u201c.<\/span><\/p>\n

Abych to zopakoval: Toto je v sou\u010dasn\u00e9 dob\u011b pouze jeden mo\u017en\u00fd, \u00fadajn\u011b slibn\u00fd sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159. Pokud to v\u0161ak vezmeme v \u00favahu jako koalici \u2013 by\u0165 st\u00e1le ve f\u00e1zi formov\u00e1n\u00ed \u2013 spojuj\u00edc\u00ed \u00cdr\u00e1n, P\u00e1kist\u00e1n, \u010c\u00ednu, kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e9 \u010dleny Rady pro spolupr\u00e1ci arabsk\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f v Persk\u00e9m z\u00e1livu (GCC), Turecko a Egypt, pak se jedn\u00e1 ji\u017e o s\u00edlu pohybuj\u00edc\u00ed se samostatn\u011b, kter\u00e1 v sou\u010dasn\u00e9 dob\u011b \u010del\u00ed jen mal\u00e9mu odporu; tato koalice, pokud bude dovedn\u011b sestavena, by mohla do jara 2027 vytla\u010dit USA ze z\u00e1padn\u00ed Asie.<\/span><\/p>\n

Co by se mohlo pokazit?<\/span><\/p>\n

Nyn\u00ed k ru\u0161iv\u00fdm faktor\u016fm. A ty jsou obrovsk\u00e9. Po kinetick\u00e9m selh\u00e1n\u00ed americko-izraelsk\u00e9ho \u00fatoku na Persii se dal\u0161\u00ed f\u00e1ze \u2013 nazv\u011bme ji s\u00e9ri\u00ed bezmapov\u00e9ho zoufalstv\u00ed \u2013 ji\u017e zm\u011bnila v hybridn\u00ed v\u00e1lku: instrumentalizaci memoranda o porozum\u011bn\u00ed k vyvol\u00e1n\u00ed ob\u010dansk\u00fdch v\u00e1lek \u2013 sekt\u00e1\u0159sk\u00fdch, n\u00e1bo\u017eensk\u00fdch, kmenov\u00fdch \u2013 pod\u00e9l cel\u00e9 osy odporu: Libanonu, Ir\u00e1ku a Jemenu.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u0158\u00edkejme tomu zap\u00e1len\u00ed osy.<\/span><\/p>\n

Po tomto sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159i miz\u00ed jak\u00e1koli mo\u017enost, \u017ee by Sa\u00fadov\u00e9 a Katarci dos\u00e1hli bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed dohody s \u00cdr\u00e1nem zprost\u0159edkovan\u00e9 P\u00e1kist\u00e1nem. Ned\u00e1vn\u00e1 historie je jednozna\u010dn\u00e1: sta\u010d\u00ed se zamyslet nad t\u00edm, jak \u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u011b Sa\u00fadov\u00e9 a Katarci zni\u010dili Som\u00e1lsko, Libyi, S\u00fad\u00e1n a S\u00fdrii.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nap\u0159\u00edklad Bagd\u00e1d je nyn\u00ed pod vl\u00e1dou kolaborant\u016f. Nov\u00fd premi\u00e9r je mlad\u00fd, bojovn\u00fd, tabula rasa \u010dlov\u011bk, relativn\u011b podobn\u00fd dama\u0161sk\u00e9mu hlavosek\u00e1\u0159i al-Gulan\u00edmu, s podt\u00f3nem kontrolovan\u00e9ho, \u200b\u200bu\u017eite\u010dn\u00e9ho opozi\u010dn\u00edho idiota.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nen\u00ed zdaleka jasn\u00e9, zda tato hybridn\u00ed taktika \u201erozd\u011bl a panuj\u201c bude fungovat proti persk\u00e9mu civiliza\u010dn\u00edmu st\u00e1tu \u2013 nap\u0159\u00edklad v sou\u010dasn\u00e9m pokusu po\u0161tvat bohat\u00e9 liber\u00e1ly proti stoick\u00fdm tradicionalist\u016fm v r\u00e1mci sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e komplexn\u00edho konfliktu. Tradicionalist\u00e9 se t\u011b\u0161\u00ed drtiv\u00e9 podpo\u0159e nap\u0159\u00ed\u010d celou populac\u00ed hluboce zako\u0159en\u011bn\u00e9ho \u00cdr\u00e1nu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Vr\u00e1t\u00edme-li se k na\u0161emu slibn\u00e9mu sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159i, nen\u00ed to p\u0159ita\u017een\u00e9 za vlasy. V praxi by to znamenalo postupn\u00fd p\u0159echod k jak\u00e9musi \u201eregulovan\u00e9mu nepo\u0159\u00e1dku\u201c, kdy by USA byly \u201esn\u00ed\u017een\u00e9, ale st\u00e1le p\u0159\u00edtomn\u00e9\u201c, ale z\u00e1rove\u0148 by seri\u00f3zn\u00ed televizn\u00ed kan\u00e1ly zkoumaly mo\u017enosti n\u00e1hrady za americk\u00fd \u201eochrann\u00fd\u201c de\u0161tn\u00edk (v mafi\u00e1nsk\u00e9m smyslu).<\/span><\/p>\n

Jak vid\u00edme, ko\u010dka s memorandem o porozum\u011bn\u00ed by se m\u011bla co nejrychleji probrat z k\u00f3matu. Jinak nastane tot\u00e1ln\u00ed, ni\u010div\u00fd chaos.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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Zdroj<\/span><\/a><\/span><\/h3>\n

 <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Ko\u010dka s memorandem o porozum\u011bn\u00ed by se m\u011bla co nejrychleji dostat z k\u00f3matu. Jinak nastane…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":110205,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,38,37,40],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/110204"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=110204"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/110204\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/110205"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=110204"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=110204"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=110204"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}