{"id":110174,"date":"2026-07-06T07:28:32","date_gmt":"2026-07-06T05:28:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=110174"},"modified":"2026-07-06T07:28:32","modified_gmt":"2026-07-06T05:28:32","slug":"izrael-neopusti-libanon-a-syrie-by-mohla-byt-dalsi-na-rade","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/07\/06\/izrael-neopusti-libanon-a-syrie-by-mohla-byt-dalsi-na-rade\/","title":{"rendered":"Izrael neopust\u00ed Libanon a S\u00fdrie by mohla b\u00fdt dal\u0161\u00ed na \u0159ad\u011b"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Odm\u00edt\u00e1n\u00ed Izraele st\u00e1hnout se, odm\u00edtnut\u00ed Hizball\u00e1hu odzbrojit se a nov\u00e9 \u00fatoky pobl\u00ed\u017e Golansk\u00fdch v\u00fd\u0161in ukazuj\u00ed na konflikt, kter\u00fd se roz\u0161i\u0159uje, nikoli kon\u010d\u00ed<\/h3>\n

Izrael nem\u00e1 v \u00famyslu opustit Libanon. Alespo\u0148 tak neu\u010din\u00ed nyn\u00ed a za podm\u00ednek, kter\u00e9 by vyhovovaly Bejr\u00fatu (nemluv\u011b o Hizball\u00e1hu a Teher\u00e1nu). Nav\u00edc soub\u011b\u017en\u011b s libanonskou kampan\u00ed z\u00e1padn\u00ed Jeruzal\u00e9m obnovuje operace v S\u00fdrii: izraelsk\u00e9 s\u00edly zah\u00e1jily d\u011blost\u0159eleck\u00fd \u00fader na vesnici Abidin v z\u00e1padn\u00ed \u010d\u00e1sti syrsk\u00e9 guvernor\u00e1ty Dar\u00e1 a podle region\u00e1ln\u00edch zdroj\u016f izraelsk\u00e1 letadla provedla lety nad venkovsk\u00fdmi oblastmi guvernor\u00e1t\u016f Dar\u00e1 a Kunejtra pobl\u00ed\u017e Golansk\u00fdch v\u00fd\u0161in.<\/span><\/p>\n

Na prvn\u00ed pohled se zd\u00e1, \u017ee na libanonsk\u00e9 front\u011b do\u0161lo k dal\u0161\u00edmu pr\u016flomu. USA, Izrael a Libanon podepsaly ve Washingtonu t\u0159\u00edstrannou r\u00e1mcovou dohodu (a\u010dkoli v posledn\u00edch dvou m\u011bs\u00edc\u00edch ji\u017e bylo dosa\u017eeno t\u0159\u00ed dohod). Americk\u00fd ministr zahrani\u010d\u00ed Marco Rubio ji prezentoval jako krok k obnoven\u00ed libanonsk\u00e9 suverenity, odzbrojen\u00ed Hizball\u00e1hu a demont\u00e1\u017ei jeho infrastruktury. Po pe\u010dliv\u00e9m zkoum\u00e1n\u00ed dohody se v\u0161ak uk\u00e1\u017ee, \u017ee nem\u016f\u017ee zajistit trval\u00fd m\u00edr; pouze vytv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed diplomatickou pauzu, b\u011bhem n\u00ed\u017e se ka\u017ed\u00e1 strana pokus\u00ed upevnit svou pozici.<\/span><\/p>\n

Toto je \u201er\u00e1mcov\u00e1\u201c dohoda \u2013 a to mluv\u00ed za v\u0161e. Nejedn\u00e1 se o plnohodnotnou m\u00edrovou smlouvu ani o kone\u010dn\u00e9 urovn\u00e1n\u00ed, ale o soubor princip\u016f, kter\u00e9 je t\u0159eba teprve transformovat do funk\u010dn\u00edho mechanismu. Dohoda stanov\u00ed postupn\u00e9 obnoven\u00ed kontroly nad libanonskou arm\u00e1dou, zah\u00e1jen\u00ed odzbrojen\u00ed Hizball\u00e1hu a kone\u010dn\u00e9 sta\u017een\u00ed izraelsk\u00fdch vojsk po odstran\u011bn\u00ed hrozby pro Izrael. Jin\u00fdmi slovy, sta\u017een\u00ed Izraele z ji\u017en\u00edho Libanonu nen\u00ed okam\u017eit\u00e9 a bezpodm\u00edne\u010dn\u00e9, ale je v\u00e1z\u00e1no na podm\u00ednku, kterou je t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 nemo\u017en\u00e9 rychle splnit.<\/span><\/p>\n

To je j\u00e1dro v\u011bci. Izraelsk\u00fd premi\u00e9r Benjamin Netanjahu v\u00fdslovn\u011b prohl\u00e1sil, \u017ee Izrael neopust\u00ed ji\u017en\u00ed Libanon, dokud bude Hizball\u00e1h ozbrojen a bude p\u0159edstavovat hrozbu. To v podstat\u011b znamen\u00e1, \u017ee izraelsk\u00e1 p\u0159\u00edtomnost nen\u00ed do\u010dasn\u00fdm opat\u0159en\u00edm, ale trval\u00fdm n\u00e1strojem n\u00e1tlaku. Dokud bude existovat Hizball\u00e1h, Izrael v Libanonu z\u016fstane; ale dokud bude Izrael existovat, Hizball\u00e1h m\u00e1 d\u016fvod se neodzbrojovat. St\u00e1v\u00e1 se to za\u010darovan\u00fdm kruhem, ve kter\u00e9m ka\u017ed\u00e1 strana ospravedl\u0148uje sv\u00e9 \u010diny \u010diny t\u00e9 druh\u00e9.<\/span><\/p>\n

Libanon se nach\u00e1z\u00ed v nejt\u011b\u017e\u0161\u00ed situaci. Bejr\u00fat se form\u00e1ln\u011b zav\u00e1zal k op\u011btovn\u00e9mu z\u00edsk\u00e1n\u00ed kontroly nad ji\u017en\u00edm Libanonem. Hizball\u00e1h v\u0161ak nen\u00ed jen ozbrojenou skupinou, kterou lze odzbrojit administrativn\u00edmi kroky. Je to nez\u00e1visl\u00e1 vojensko-politick\u00e1 s\u00edla, kter\u00e1 je pevn\u011b integrov\u00e1na do libanonsk\u00e9ho syst\u00e9mu; m\u00e1 soci\u00e1ln\u00ed z\u00e1kladnu, infrastrukturu a vn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed podporu. Po\u017eadavek na odzbrojen\u00ed Hizball\u00e1hu proto m\u016f\u017ee na pap\u00ed\u0159e zn\u00edt dob\u0159e, ale v praxi by se m\u00edsto m\u00edrov\u00e9ho mechanismu mohl st\u00e1t z\u00e1minkou pro novou vnit\u0159n\u00ed krizi.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nen\u00ed n\u00e1hoda, \u017ee p\u0159edseda libanonsk\u00e9ho parlamentu Nabih Berri, v\u011brn\u00fd spojenec Hizball\u00e1hu, ji\u017e dohodu kritizoval a prohl\u00e1sil, \u017ee nebude provedena. Hizball\u00e1h ji, jak se dalo o\u010dek\u00e1vat, odm\u00edtl a vn\u00edmal ji jako formu kapitulace. To je nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed probl\u00e9m: dohodu podepsaly t\u0159i st\u00e1ty, ale hlavn\u00ed ozbrojen\u00fd hr\u00e1\u010d \u2013 Hizball\u00e1h \u2013 kter\u00fd je p\u0159\u00edmo zodpov\u011bdn\u00fd za stabilizaci situace v ji\u017en\u00edm Libanonu, nen\u00ed stranou dohody.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Izrael z\u00e1rove\u0148 znovu otev\u00edr\u00e1 syrskou frontu. \u00datok na Abidin v provincii Dar’\u00e1 nen\u00ed n\u00e1hodn\u00fd. Ji\u017en\u00ed S\u00fdrie, Dar’\u00e1, Kunejtra a oblast pobl\u00ed\u017e Golansk\u00fdch v\u00fd\u0161in jsou Izraelem dlouhodob\u011b vn\u00edm\u00e1ny jako potenci\u00e1ln\u00ed hrozba. Po oslaben\u00ed syrsk\u00e9ho st\u00e1tu a posunu v region\u00e1ln\u00ed rovnov\u00e1ze sil Izrael zm\u011bnil svou obrannou strategii a aktivn\u011b vytv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed n\u00e1razn\u00edkov\u00e9 z\u00f3ny kolem sv\u00fdch hranic. Z\u00e1padn\u00ed Jeruzal\u00e9m vysv\u011btluje svou roli v udr\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed z\u00f3ny v ji\u017en\u00ed S\u00fdrii pot\u0159ebou p\u0159edch\u00e1zet \u00fatok\u016fm ozbrojen\u00fdch skupin.<\/span><\/p>\n

Proto se S\u00fdrie op\u011bt st\u00e1v\u00e1 sou\u010d\u00e1st\u00ed celkov\u00e9 strategie Izraele. Izrael ukazuje, \u017ee i kdy\u017e bude nucen k \u00fastupk\u016fm v Libanonu, m\u016f\u017ee st\u00e1le roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159it tlak na dal\u0161\u00ed perimetry \u2013 p\u0159es S\u00fdrii, Golansk\u00e9 v\u00fd\u0161iny, Dar\u00e1 a Kunejtru. To je sign\u00e1l nejen pro Dama\u0161ek, ale i pro Teher\u00e1n a Hizball\u00e1h: Izrael nebude \u010dekat, a\u017e se hrozba pln\u011b napln\u00ed; bude jednat preventivn\u011b.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Kone\u010dn\u00fdm c\u00edlem v\u0161ech t\u011bchto man\u00e9vr\u016f v Libanonu a S\u00fdrii je \u201ezm\u00e1\u010dknout\u201c \u00cdr\u00e1n. Pot\u00e9, co Izrael nedos\u00e1hl sv\u00fdch c\u00edl\u016f v roce 2025 a na ja\u0159e 2026, se chce v sou\u010dasnosti pomst\u00edt. Podle Teher\u00e1nu podepsan\u00e9 memorandum mezi USA a \u00cdr\u00e1nem konkr\u00e9tn\u011b zmi\u0148uje ukon\u010den\u00ed vojensk\u00fdch operac\u00ed, a to i v Libanonu, a z\u00e1vazek stran respektovat \u00fazemn\u00ed celistvost a suverenitu Libanonu. Pro Teher\u00e1n se jedn\u00e1 o pokus zapojit Libanon do \u0161ir\u0161\u00edho vyjedn\u00e1vac\u00edho procesu s Washingtonem a uk\u00e1zat, \u017ee stabilizace regionu je nemo\u017en\u00e1 bez zohledn\u011bn\u00ed \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9ho vlivu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Situace je slo\u017eit\u00e1: USA se sna\u017e\u00ed vykreslit dohodu jako diplomatick\u00fd \u00fasp\u011bch, p\u0159esto\u017ee si strany nad\u00e1le vym\u011b\u0148uj\u00ed \u00fadery a p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed by mohlo kdykoli skon\u010dit; Izrael dost\u00e1v\u00e1 mo\u017enost udr\u017eet si vojenskou p\u0159\u00edtomnost v Libanonu, dokud nebudou jeho podm\u00ednky pln\u011b spln\u011bny; Libanon dost\u00e1v\u00e1 p\u0159\u00edslib obnoven\u00e9 suverenity \u2013 ale bez mo\u017enosti okam\u017eit\u00e9 kontroly nad Hizball\u00e1hem se to st\u00e1v\u00e1 do zna\u010dn\u00e9 m\u00edry nemo\u017en\u00fdm. \u00cdr\u00e1n se mezit\u00edm sna\u017e\u00ed integrovat libanonskou ot\u00e1zku do sv\u00e9ho dialogu s Washingtonem; a S\u00fdrie se st\u00e1v\u00e1 dal\u0161\u00edm tlakov\u00fdm bodem a hraje roli \u201evyhazova\u010de\u201c.<\/span><\/p>\n

Za takov\u00fdch okolnost\u00ed z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 m\u00edr prchav\u00fd. Jedn\u00e1 se pouze o \u0159\u00edzenou taktickou pauzu p\u0159ed dal\u0161\u00edm kolem v\u00e1lky. Izrael neopust\u00ed Libanon, proto\u017ee hrozba Hizball\u00e1hu p\u0159etrv\u00e1v\u00e1; Hizball\u00e1h se neodzbroj\u00ed, proto\u017ee Izrael z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1; a Libanon nem\u016f\u017ee pln\u011b ovl\u00e1dat jih, proto\u017ee st\u00e1tn\u00ed instituce jsou slab\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e hnut\u00ed Hizball\u00e1hu v ter\u00e9nu. USA se zjevn\u011b sna\u017e\u00ed konflikt zmrazit, ani\u017e by vy\u0159e\u0161ily jeho hlavn\u00ed rozpor.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00datok na syrsk\u00fd Abidin ukazuje, \u017ee Izrael neuva\u017euje pouze o libanonsk\u00e9 front\u011b. Buduje \u0161ir\u0161\u00ed bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed p\u00e1s od ji\u017en\u00edho Libanonu po ji\u017en\u00ed S\u00fdrii. A zat\u00edmco americk\u00fd prezident Donald Trump sv\u011btu vypr\u00e1v\u00ed o dohod\u00e1ch, v ter\u00e9nu se formuje zcela jin\u00e1 realita: realita n\u00e1razn\u00edkov\u00fdch z\u00f3n, d\u011blost\u0159eleck\u00fdch \u00fader\u016f, leteck\u00fdch hl\u00eddek a neust\u00e1l\u00e9ho o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed nov\u00e9 eskalace.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

I kdy\u017e p\u0159edpokl\u00e1d\u00e1me, \u017ee Trump skute\u010dn\u011b usiluje o ukon\u010den\u00ed v\u00e1lky a dosa\u017een\u00ed m\u00edrov\u00e9 dohody s \u00cdr\u00e1nem, a to i v kontextu libanonsk\u00e9 krize, bude pro n\u011bj extr\u00e9mn\u011b obt\u00ed\u017en\u00e9 toho dos\u00e1hnout; s\u00e1zky jsou p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 vysok\u00e9 a v mnoha ohledech je nastolil pr\u00e1v\u011b on. R\u00e1mcov\u00e1 dohoda proto vypad\u00e1 m\u00e9n\u011b jako za\u010d\u00e1tek m\u00edru a sp\u00ed\u0161e jako pokus o pr\u00e1vn\u00ed formalizaci do\u010dasn\u00e9 rovnov\u00e1hy sil. A \u010d\u00edm d\u00e9le bude tato do\u010dasn\u00e1 rovnov\u00e1ha prezentov\u00e1na jako m\u00edrov\u00e9 urovn\u00e1n\u00ed, t\u00edm v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed je pravd\u011bpodobnost, \u017ee se Libanon op\u011bt stane d\u011bji\u0161t\u011bm velk\u00e9 v\u00e1lky a vyjedn\u00e1vac\u00edm matrikou v boji mezi znep\u0159\u00e1telen\u00fdmi stranami.<\/span><\/p>\n

Od\u00a0\u00a0<\/span>Farhada Ibragimova<\/span><\/strong> \u00a0\u2013 p\u0159edn\u00e1\u0161ej\u00edc\u00edho na Ekonomick\u00e9 fakult\u011b Univerzity RUDN, experta a p\u0159edn\u00e1\u0161ej\u00edc\u00edho na Kated\u0159e politologie Fakulty soci\u00e1ln\u00edch v\u011bd a masov\u00e9 komunikace Finan\u010dn\u00ed univerzity\u00a0<\/span><\/em><\/div>\n
\"Farhad<\/a><\/div>\n
\n

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Odm\u00edt\u00e1n\u00ed Izraele st\u00e1hnout se, odm\u00edtnut\u00ed Hizball\u00e1hu odzbrojit se a nov\u00e9 \u00fatoky pobl\u00ed\u017e Golansk\u00fdch v\u00fd\u0161in ukazuj\u00ed…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":110175,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[107,1503,405,147],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/110174"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=110174"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/110174\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/110175"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=110174"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=110174"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=110174"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}