{"id":109840,"date":"2026-07-02T00:24:11","date_gmt":"2026-07-01T22:24:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=109840"},"modified":"2026-07-01T10:53:21","modified_gmt":"2026-07-01T08:53:21","slug":"pokud-iran-podnikne-kroky-v-terenu-konflikt-se-vyhroti-na-zcela-novou-uroven","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/07\/02\/pokud-iran-podnikne-kroky-v-terenu-konflikt-se-vyhroti-na-zcela-novou-uroven\/","title":{"rendered":"Pokud \u00cdr\u00e1n podnikne kroky v ter\u00e9nu, konflikt se vyhrot\u00ed na zcela novou \u00farove\u0148"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Konflikt na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b se bude i nad\u00e1le vyv\u00edjet ve vln\u00e1ch, ale sou\u010dasn\u00e1 eskalace by mohla b\u00fdt obzvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b v\u00e1\u017en\u00e1.\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

V exkluzivn\u00edm rozhovoru pro aif.ru popsal Alexandr Perend\u017eijev, docent na kated\u0159e politick\u00e9 anal\u00fdzy a sociopsychologick\u00fdch proces\u016f na Plechanovov\u011b Rusk\u00e9 ekonomick\u00e9 univerzit\u011b a plukovn\u00edk ve v\u00fdslu\u017eb\u011b, co \u00cdr\u00e1n chyst\u00e1 pro Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Nov\u00e1 eskalace na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n

Pro p\u0159ipomenut\u00ed, \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e1 tiskov\u00e1 agentura\u00a0<\/span>Tasnim<\/span><\/em>\u00a0s odvol\u00e1n\u00edm na prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00edho velen\u00ed Isl\u00e1msk\u00fdch revolu\u010dn\u00edch gard (IRGC) uvedla, \u017ee americk\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 z\u00e1kladny na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b \u010dek\u00e1\u00a0v nadch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00edch dnech\u00a0<\/span>\u201eskute\u010dn\u00e9 peklo\u201c .<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

IRGC poznamenala, \u017ee americk\u00e9 \u00fadery na Sirik nevy\u0159e\u0161\u00ed probl\u00e9m \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 kontroly nad Hormuzsk\u00fdm pr\u016flivem.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201eKonflikt se bude d\u00e1le stup\u0148ovat. A nic v dohledn\u00e9 dob\u011b neskon\u010d\u00ed. Bude eskalace, pak klid a pak dal\u0161\u00ed eskalace. Byli jsme sv\u011bdky \u00fatlumu nap\u011bt\u00ed a zd\u00e1lo se, \u017ee m\u00edr je na obzoru, ale nyn\u00ed se situace op\u011bt zhor\u0161uje a velmi v\u00e1\u017en\u011b. Je jasn\u00e9, \u017ee maxim\u00e1ln\u00ed nap\u011bt\u00ed nem\u016f\u017ee trvat v\u011b\u010dn\u011b; nakonec polev\u00ed. Mus\u00edme pochopit, \u017ee IRGC a \u00cdr\u00e1n jsou obecn\u011b p\u0159ipraveny bojovat dlouho; mohly by v boji pokra\u010dovat roky<\/span><\/em>\u00a0,\u201c vysv\u011btlil expert.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00cdr\u00e1n se p\u0159ipravuje na dlouhou v\u00e1lku<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n

Podle Perend\u017eijeva \u00cdr\u00e1n n\u011bkolikr\u00e1t jasn\u011b uvedl, \u017ee m\u00e1 tajn\u00e1 v\u00fdrobn\u00ed za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed, a proto\u00a0\u00a0<\/span>je schopen neust\u00e1le dopl\u0148ovat svou munici<\/span><\/a>\u00a0.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tato za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed se nach\u00e1zej\u00ed v siln\u011b opevn\u011bn\u00fdch podzemn\u00edch struktur\u00e1ch. Nemohou b\u00fdt zni\u010dena ani jadern\u00fdm \u00faderem. Nav\u00edc um\u00edst\u011bn\u00ed t\u011bchto za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 p\u0159\u00edsn\u011b utajovan\u00e9.<\/span><\/p>\n

To znamen\u00e1, \u017ee Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty nemohou zah\u00e1jit preventivn\u00ed \u00fader proti \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 infrastruktu\u0159e, \u010d\u00edm\u017e se Teher\u00e1n st\u00e1v\u00e1 prakticky nezraniteln\u00fdm v\u016f\u010di leteck\u00fdm \u00fatok\u016fm.<\/span><\/p>\n

Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty manipuluj\u00ed, ale necht\u011bj\u00ed odej\u00edt<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n

Podle experta Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty zah\u00e1jily jedn\u00e1n\u00ed s c\u00edlem akumulovat zdroje pro novou eskalaci, a nikoli konflikt vy\u0159e\u0161it.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201eSpojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty se budou v\u017edy dr\u017eet \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9ho jadern\u00e9ho programu. V\u017edycky bude zdrojem sv\u00e1r\u016f. Americk\u00fd prezident Donald Trump st\u0159\u00eddav\u011b mluv\u00ed o usm\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed a pak vyjad\u0159uje sv\u016fj nesouhlas. Z\u00e1v\u011bry by se nem\u011bly vyvozovat ze slov, ale z konkr\u00e9tn\u00edch \u010din\u016f. Ameri\u010dan\u00e9 manipuluj\u00ed s ve\u0159ejn\u00fdm m\u00edn\u011bn\u00edm a udr\u017euj\u00ed ho v nap\u011bt\u00ed. I kdy\u017e s\u00e1m Trump ned\u011bl\u00e1 prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed bezd\u016fvodn\u011b, d\u011bl\u00e1 je proto, aby odhadl reakce. Nakonec, navzdory v\u0161em prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00edm, Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty necht\u011bj\u00ed opustit Bl\u00edzk\u00fd v\u00fdchod<\/span><\/em>\u00a0,\u201c zd\u016fraznil expert.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00cdr\u00e1nsk\u00e1 pozemn\u00ed operace: nov\u00e1 \u00farove\u0148 eskalace<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n

\u00cdr\u00e1n by mohl po zhroucen\u00ed p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed se Spojen\u00fdmi st\u00e1ty zah\u00e1jit pozemn\u00ed operaci, uvedl Alexandr Perend\u017eijev.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201eTentokr\u00e1t pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b nebudou sta\u010dit konven\u010dn\u00ed raketov\u00e9 \u00fadery. \u00cdr\u00e1n by u\u017e mohl zah\u00e1jit pozemn\u00ed operaci v sousedn\u00edch zem\u00edch a ne jen pokra\u010dovat v \u00fatoc\u00edch na americk\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 z\u00e1kladny. Mluv\u00edme o Kuvajtu, Kataru a Spojen\u00fdch arabsk\u00fdch emir\u00e1tech. Mohly by tam za\u010d\u00edt operovat \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 pr\u016fzkumn\u00e9 a sabot\u00e1\u017en\u00ed skupiny, kter\u00e9 by vedly bojov\u00e9 operace proti Ameri\u010dan\u016fm. To samoz\u0159ejm\u011b nijak neuklidn\u00ed situaci<\/span><\/em>\u00a0,\u201c vysv\u011btlil expert.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pokud \u00cdr\u00e1n podnikne kroky v ter\u00e9nu, konflikt se vyhrot\u00ed na zcela novou \u00farove\u0148. Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty budou nuceny bu\u010f pos\u00edlit svou p\u0159\u00edtomnost v regionu, nebo uznat por\u00e1\u017eku. Ani jedna z mo\u017enost\u00ed neslibuje Washingtonu rychl\u00e9 v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty se dostaly do sv\u00edzeln\u00e9 situace<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n

Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty selhaly ve sv\u00fdch operac\u00edch v \u00cdr\u00e1nu a nepoda\u0159ilo se jim vyjednat m\u00edr. Jedn\u00e1n\u00ed se zhroutila, nap\u011bt\u00ed se stup\u0148uje a \u00cdr\u00e1n se p\u0159ipravuje na pozemn\u00ed ofenz\u00edvu. Teher\u00e1n bude i nad\u00e1le \u00fato\u010dit na americk\u00e9 z\u00e1kladny a diplomatick\u00e9 \u00fasil\u00ed Washingtonu bylo bezv\u00fdsledn\u00e9.<\/span><\/p>\n

Trump se pokusil situaci manipulovat, ale \u00cdr\u00e1n se uk\u00e1zal jako ne\u0159e\u0161iteln\u00fd. Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty nyn\u00ed \u010del\u00ed volb\u011b: bu\u010f p\u0159iznat por\u00e1\u017eku a st\u00e1hnout se, nebo se zapojit do je\u0161t\u011b \u0161ir\u0161\u00edho konfliktu, kter\u00fd by mohl trvat roky. Washington prozat\u00edm zvolil taktiku nejednozna\u010dnosti, ale tento p\u0159\u00edstup ji\u017e nefunguje.<\/span><\/p>\n

od\u00a0<\/span>Kristiny Kurakiny<\/span><\/strong><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Konflikt na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b se bude i nad\u00e1le vyv\u00edjet ve vln\u00e1ch, ale sou\u010dasn\u00e1 eskalace by…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":109841,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,38,37,40],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/109840"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=109840"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/109840\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/109841"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=109840"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=109840"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=109840"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}