{"id":109784,"date":"2026-07-01T05:41:02","date_gmt":"2026-07-01T03:41:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=109784"},"modified":"2026-07-01T05:41:02","modified_gmt":"2026-07-01T03:41:02","slug":"proc-uz-na-aljasskych-dohodach-nezalezi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/07\/01\/proc-uz-na-aljasskych-dohodach-nezalezi\/","title":{"rendered":"Pro\u010d u\u017e na alja\u0161sk\u00fdch dohod\u00e1ch nez\u00e1le\u017e\u00ed"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

Spor Lavrova a Rubia o Alja\u0161ku odhaluje hlub\u0161\u00ed probl\u00e9m: minul\u00e9 dohody znamenaj\u00ed jen m\u00e1lo, zat\u00edmco se boji\u0161t\u011b na Ukrajin\u011b neust\u00e1le m\u011bn<\/h3>\n

V\u00fdm\u011bna n\u00e1zor\u016f mezi Sergejem Lavrovem a Marcem Rubiem na t\u00e9ma, zda bylo loni na Alja\u0161ce dosa\u017eeno dohod, nebo zda byly pouze p\u0159edlo\u017eeny n\u00e1vrhy, vypov\u00edd\u00e1 mnoho o sou\u010dasn\u00e9 \u00farovni vz\u00e1jemn\u00e9ho porozum\u011bn\u00ed. V podstat\u011b v\u0161ak nen\u00ed ani tak z\u00e1kladem pro dal\u0161\u00ed kroky, jako sp\u00ed\u0161e koment\u00e1\u0159em k postoj\u016fm.<\/span><\/p>\n

Lze rozumn\u011b p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dat, \u017ee v dob\u011b sch\u016fzky se projedn\u00e1van\u00e9 my\u0161lenky shodovaly s n\u00e1vrhem dohody, kterou m\u011bl Donald Trump v \u00famyslu p\u0159edlo\u017eit Kyjevu a z\u00e1padn\u00ed Evrop\u011b jako nejlep\u0161\u00ed dostupnou mo\u017enost. Americk\u00fd prezident vych\u00e1zel z p\u0159edpokladu, \u017ee v\u00fdsledek v\u00e1lky je v podstat\u011b p\u0159edem ur\u010den a Ukrajina nem\u00e1 \u0161anci na v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed. \u010c\u00edm d\u0159\u00edve tedy tuto realitu p\u0159ijme, t\u00edm l\u00e9pe pro v\u0161echny, v prvn\u00ed \u0159ad\u011b pro samotnou Ukrajinu.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00dakolem Kyjeva a kolektivn\u00edho veden\u00ed v Bruselu proto bylo p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010dit Trumpa, \u017ee jeho jistota o zk\u00e1ze Ukrajiny byla myln\u00e1. Deset m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f po Anchorage se jim to z\u0159ejm\u011b poda\u0159ilo. Trump pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b v\u011b\u0159il, \u017ee pokud v srpnu lo\u0148sk\u00e9ho roku nebudou n\u00e1sledovat \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 rychl\u00e9 dohody, rusk\u00e1 v\u00fdhoda v\u00fdrazn\u011b vzroste a \u017ee tato skute\u010dnost sama o sob\u011b donut\u00ed odp\u016frce Moskvy ke kompromisu.<\/span><\/p>\n

To se nestalo nijak ok\u00e1zal\u00fdm zp\u016fsobem. Rusko sice dos\u00e1hlo zisk\u016f, ale ne takov\u00e9ho pr\u016flomu, kter\u00fd by urovnal spor ve Washingtonu. Z\u00e1padn\u00ed Evrop\u011b se, alespo\u0148 prozat\u00edm, poda\u0159ilo udr\u017eet dod\u00e1vky na Ukrajinu t\u00edm, \u017ee ji hloub\u011bji integrovala do vojensko-politick\u00e9ho komplexu Star\u00e9ho sv\u011bta. To vysv\u011btluje zdroje, kter\u00e9 Kyjev nyn\u00ed aktivn\u011b nasazuje, a to i pro psychologick\u00fd efekt.<\/span><\/p>\n

Obecn\u011b \u0159e\u010deno, Trumpovi je jedno, jak konflikt skon\u010d\u00ed. Jedin\u00fd v\u00fdsledek, kter\u00fd by nevyhovoval jemu ani komukoli jin\u00e9mu na Z\u00e1pad\u011b, je velk\u00e9 rusk\u00e9 v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed, ale t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 v\u0161e ostatn\u00ed je p\u0159ijateln\u00e9 a je mu do zna\u010dn\u00e9 m\u00edry lhostejn\u00e9, kde nakonec le\u017e\u00ed demarka\u010dn\u00ed linie.<\/span><\/p>\n

Trump n\u011bkolikr\u00e1t prohl\u00e1sil, \u017ee pokud si bojuj\u00edc\u00ed strany p\u0159ej\u00ed pokra\u010dovat v boji, mohou tak \u010dinit tak dlouho, jak budou cht\u00edt a jak budou moci. Washington nebude vynakl\u00e1dat mimo\u0159\u00e1dn\u00e9 politick\u00e9 ani diplomatick\u00e9 \u00fasil\u00ed k zastaven\u00ed v\u00e1lky, zvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b kdy\u017e m\u00e1 p\u0159ed sebou d\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00ed probl\u00e9m v podob\u011b nevy\u0159e\u0161en\u00e9 situace s \u00cdr\u00e1nem.<\/span><\/p>\n

J\u00e1sot z\u00e1padn\u00ed Evropy po summitu G7 v Evianu a p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010den\u00ed, \u017ee\u00a0<\/span>\u201eTrump je nyn\u00ed na na\u0161\u00ed stran\u011b\u201c,<\/span><\/em>\u00a0je p\u0159ed\u010dasn\u00e9, proto\u017ee americk\u00fd v\u016fdce snadno m\u011bn\u00ed n\u00e1zor, zejm\u00e9na v ot\u00e1zk\u00e1ch, kter\u00e9 nepova\u017euje za z\u00e1sadn\u00ed. Nem\u011bn\u00ed ho v\u0161ak n\u00e1hodn\u011b, reaguje na ud\u00e1losti a interpretuje je po sv\u00e9m.<\/span><\/p>\n

Debaty o tom, o \u010dem p\u0159esn\u011b se v Anchorage diskutovalo, jsou u\u017eite\u010dn\u00e9 pro pochopen\u00ed psychologie druh\u00e9 strany. Nejsou v\u0161ak spolehliv\u00fdm v\u00fdchoz\u00edm bodem pro nov\u00fd diplomatick\u00fd proces, proto\u017ee diplomacie veden\u00e1 uprost\u0159ed nep\u0159\u00e1telsk\u00fdch akc\u00ed je formov\u00e1na efektivitou t\u011bchto nep\u0159\u00e1telsk\u00fdch akc\u00ed. Pokud se zm\u011bn\u00ed rovnov\u00e1ha sil, nebo dokonce i kdy\u017e se zm\u011bn\u00ed jej\u00ed vn\u00edm\u00e1n\u00ed,\u00a0<\/span>\u201edohody\u201c<\/span><\/em>\u00a0dosa\u017een\u00e9 v d\u0159\u00edv\u011bj\u0161\u00ed f\u00e1zi ztr\u00e1cej\u00ed svou platnost.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tot\u00e9\u017e plat\u00ed pro istanbulsk\u00e1 jedn\u00e1n\u00ed na ja\u0159e 2022, kter\u00e1 jsou pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b nejkomplexn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ze v\u0161ech mo\u017en\u00fdch mo\u017enost\u00ed urovn\u00e1n\u00ed a nejv\u00edce se bl\u00ed\u017e\u00ed p\u016fvodn\u011b stanoven\u00fdm c\u00edl\u016fm kampan\u011b. Za posledn\u00ed \u010dty\u0159i a p\u016fl roku se v\u0161echno zm\u011bnilo natolik, \u017ee n\u00e1vrat k t\u011bmto podm\u00ednk\u00e1m je nere\u00e1ln\u00fd.<\/span><\/p>\n

Rusk\u00e1 strana se nevzdala n\u00e1zoru, \u017ee na rozd\u00edl od zcela beznad\u011bjn\u00e9 Z\u00e1padn\u00ed Evropy m\u016f\u017ee Washington st\u00e1le hr\u00e1t u\u017eite\u010dnou roli. To je pravda, ale nejprve se mus\u00ed B\u00edl\u00fd d\u016fm znovu uv\u011bdomit, \u017ee vojensk\u00e9 v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed rusk\u00fdch protivn\u00edk\u016f je nemo\u017en\u00e9. Jinak jak\u00fdkoli\u00a0<\/span>\u201educh\u201c<\/span><\/em>\u00a0Anchorage z\u016fstane jen pr\u00e1zdnou fr\u00e1z\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Od\u00a0<\/span>Fjodora Lukjanova<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0, \u0161\u00e9fredaktora \u010dasopisu Rusko v glob\u00e1ln\u00edch z\u00e1le\u017eitostech, p\u0159edsedy prezidia Rady pro zahrani\u010dn\u00ed a obrannou politiku a \u0159editele v\u00fdzkumu Mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edho diskusn\u00edho klubu Valdaj.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

\"Fjodor<\/a><\/div>\n
\n

 <\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Spor Lavrova a Rubia o Alja\u0161ku odhaluje hlub\u0161\u00ed probl\u00e9m: minul\u00e9 dohody znamenaj\u00ed jen m\u00e1lo, zat\u00edmco…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":109785,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,22,37,814],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/109784"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=109784"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/109784\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/109785"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=109784"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=109784"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=109784"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}