{"id":109691,"date":"2026-06-30T05:05:39","date_gmt":"2026-06-30T03:05:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=109691"},"modified":"2026-06-30T05:05:39","modified_gmt":"2026-06-30T03:05:39","slug":"uriel-araujo-ukrajinsky-konflikt-opet-nabira-na-obratkach-ruske-jednotky-stabilne-postupuji","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/06\/30\/uriel-araujo-ukrajinsky-konflikt-opet-nabira-na-obratkach-ruske-jednotky-stabilne-postupuji\/","title":{"rendered":"Uriel Araujo: Ukrajinsk\u00fd konflikt op\u011bt nab\u00edr\u00e1 na obr\u00e1tk\u00e1ch, rusk\u00e9 jednotky stabiln\u011b postupuj\u00ed"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Rusk\u00e9 opera\u010dn\u00ed v\u00fdhody st\u00e1le p\u0159eva\u017euj\u00ed nad ok\u00e1zalou kampan\u00ed Kyjeva s dronov\u00fdmi zbran\u011bmi, a to i p\u0159es miliardy v nov\u00e9 evropsk\u00e9 podpo\u0159e.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Zat\u00edmco pozornost je st\u00e1le zam\u011b\u0159ena na \u00cdr\u00e1n a Bl\u00edzk\u00fd v\u00fdchod, v\u00e1lka\u00a0<\/span>z\u00e1stupn\u00e9ho<\/span><\/a>\u00a0Z\u00e1padu proti Rusku na Ukrajin\u011b by mohla op\u011bt nabrat na obr\u00e1tk\u00e1ch. V posledn\u00edch t\u00fddnech se ukrajinsk\u00fd prezident Volodymyr Zelenskyj sna\u017eil prezentovat svou s\u00edlu: s nov\u00fdm finan\u010dn\u00edm bal\u00ed\u010dkem EU v ruce vykreslil Ukrajinu jako zemi, kter\u00e1 buduje rozhoduj\u00edc\u00ed \u00fadern\u00e9 kapacity na dlouh\u00e9 vzd\u00e1lenosti, je\u017e by mohly zvr\u00e1tit dynamiku boje proti Rusku.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ve sv\u00e9m\u00a0<\/span>projevu<\/span><\/a>\u00a0z 24. \u010dervna Zelenskyj zd\u016fraznil roz\u0161i\u0159uj\u00edc\u00ed se schopnosti \u00fatok\u016f na dlouhou vzd\u00e1lenost a argumentoval, \u017ee (s pat\u0159i\u010dnou podporou partner\u016f G7) by jeho zem\u011b mohla \u201edonutit Rusko, aby si zvolilo m\u00edr\u201c. Jako d\u016fkaz rostouc\u00edho tlaku pouk\u00e1zal na rostouc\u00ed schopnost Ukrajiny zas\u00e1hnout \u201ehloub\u011bji\u201c na rusk\u00e9m \u00fazem\u00ed a z\u00e1rove\u0148 zd\u016fraznil pl\u00e1ny na pos\u00edlen\u00ed dom\u00e1c\u00ed v\u00fdroby zbran\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Je pravda, \u017ee Kyjev zintenzivnil svou dlouhodobou kampa\u0148 a\u00a0<\/span>\u00fato\u010d\u00ed na<\/span><\/a>\u00a0vojensk\u00e9, obrann\u011b-pr\u016fmyslov\u00e9 a energetick\u00e9 c\u00edle uvnit\u0159 euroasijsk\u00e9 velmoci. Nap\u0159\u00edklad Ukrajina 25. \u010dervna za\u00fato\u010dila na c\u00edle v Uf\u011b, kde\u00a0<\/span>zas\u00e1hla rafinerie spojen\u00e9 s Rosn\u011bft\u00ed<\/span><\/a>\u00a0.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tento v\u00fdvoj generuje pozoruhodn\u00e9 obrazy a taktick\u00e9 naru\u0161en\u00ed. Realita na m\u00edst\u011b je v\u0161ak jin\u00e1: ukrajinsk\u00e1 v\u00e1lka s drony m\u011bla dopad, ale to rusk\u00fdm sil\u00e1m nezabr\u00e1nilo v pokra\u010dov\u00e1n\u00ed \u00fato\u010dn\u00fdch operac\u00ed, d\u011blost\u0159eleck\u00fdch palb, raketov\u00fdch \u00fader\u016f a vlastn\u00edch \u00fatok\u016f dron\u016f pod\u00e9l fronty.<\/span><\/p>\n

Rusk\u00fd postup je ve skute\u010dnosti stabiln\u00ed: jeho ozbrojen\u00e9 s\u00edly hl\u00e1s\u00ed kontrolu nad osadami, v\u010detn\u011b\u00a0<\/span>Krasn\u00e9ho Limanu<\/span><\/a>\u00a0a\u00a0<\/span>Konstantinovky<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, a\u00a0<\/span>dal\u0161\u00edmi<\/span><\/a>\u00a0. A \u00fazemn\u00ed zisky v kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fdch sektorech pokra\u010duj\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Zelenskyj v ka\u017ed\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b vyu\u017e\u00edv\u00e1 novou\u00a0<\/span>podporu EU<\/span><\/a>\u00a0(zhruba 102 miliard dolar\u016f) k tomu, aby Ukrajin\u011b p\u0159edstavil v\u011brohodnou \u0161anci.<\/span><\/p>\n

Mo\u017en\u00e1 si vzpomeneme, \u017ee zem\u011b jako\u00a0<\/span>Slovensko<\/span><\/a>\u00a0a\u00a0<\/span>\u010cesk\u00e1 republika<\/span><\/a>\u00a0(a zpo\u010d\u00e1tku\u00a0<\/span>Ma\u010farsko<\/span><\/a>\u00a0) se rozhodly pro finan\u010dn\u00ed \u00fa\u010dast na spole\u010dn\u00e9m bal\u00ed\u010dku EU. Po Orb\u00e1nov\u011b p\u00e1du Ma\u010farsko zru\u0161ilo sv\u00e9 obstrukce a usnadnilo implementaci, a\u010dkoli Budape\u0161\u0165 st\u00e1le vzn\u00e1\u0161\u00ed obavy ohledn\u011b pr\u00e1v men\u0161in na Ukrajin\u011b a ot\u00e1zek p\u0159\u00edstupu.<\/span><\/p>\n

V t\u00e9to souvislosti britsk\u00fd premi\u00e9r Starmer ozn\u00e1mil svou rezignaci, zat\u00edmco francouzsk\u00fd prezident Macron m\u00e1\u00a0<\/span>\u00fastavn\u00ed z\u00e1kaz<\/span><\/a>\u00a0uch\u00e1zet se v roce 2027 o t\u0159et\u00ed funk\u010dn\u00ed obdob\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

To v\u0161e zvy\u0161uje nejistotu v politick\u00e9 a finan\u010dn\u00ed rovin\u011b konfliktu na kontinentu, kter\u00fd ji\u017e dlouho za\u017e\u00edv\u00e1 \u201e\u00fanavu z Ukrajiny\u201c.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nen\u00ed divu, \u017ee Zelenskij usilovn\u011b pracuje na tom, aby tyto prost\u0159edky zd\u016fvodnil prezentac\u00ed vojensk\u00e9ho pokroku.<\/span><\/p>\n

Kyjev tak\u00e9 ve velk\u00e9m\u00a0<\/span>nakupuje drony<\/span><\/a>\u00a0(v\u010detn\u011b Hornet\u016f). Kreml si v\u0161ak st\u00e1le udr\u017euje v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed z\u00e1soby dron\u016f pro \u00fatoky na bl\u00edzko a dal\u0161\u00ed \u00fa\u010dely, nemluv\u011b o\u00a0<\/span>balistick\u00fdch st\u0159el\u00e1ch<\/span><\/a>\u00a0.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ukrajinsk\u00e9 ozbrojen\u00e9 s\u00edly nav\u00edc \u010del\u00ed v\u00e1\u017en\u00e9mu nedostatku\u00a0<\/span>z\u00e1chytn\u00fdch<\/span><\/a>\u00a0raket,\u00a0<\/span>a to i<\/span><\/a>\u00a0pro syst\u00e9my\u00a0<\/span>Patriot , p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e rychl\u00e9 \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed na dom\u00e1c\u00ed \u00farovni nen\u00ed v dohledu; a v\u00fdroba vlastn\u00edch raket Patriot by nebyla \u0159e\u0161en\u00edm, jak\u00a0<\/span><\/a>zd\u016fraz\u0148uje<\/span><\/a>\u00a0Jennifer Kavanagh (vedouc\u00ed pracovn\u00ed\u010dka a \u0159editelka vojensk\u00e9 anal\u00fdzy v Defense Priorities)\u00a0.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nav\u00edc je\u00a0<\/span>nepravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, \u017ee by Kyjev v bl\u00edzk\u00e9 budoucnosti obdr\u017eel nov\u00e9 velk\u00e9 syst\u00e9my protivzdu\u0161n\u00e9 obrany nebo \u00fato\u010dn\u00e9 syst\u00e9my, jako jsou Tomahawky.<\/span><\/p>\n

Zelenskyj se tak op\u011bt sna\u017e\u00ed vytvo\u0159it zd\u00e1n\u00ed \u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u00e9 obrany a dokonce zvr\u00e1tit v\u00fdvoj situace. Toto \u00fasil\u00ed pom\u00e1h\u00e1 ospravedlnit masivn\u00ed pomoc v\u011b\u0159itel\u016fm EU uprost\u0159ed rostouc\u00ed \u00fanavy Evropy z konfliktu a jeho ekonomick\u00fdch dopad\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n

A\u0165 je to jakkoli, probl\u00e9my Ukrajiny s lidskou silou jsou nedostate\u010dn\u011b informov\u00e1ny a po letech \u00fabytku kvalifikovan\u00fdch bojovn\u00edk\u016f je nedostatek.<\/span><\/p>\n

Jak jsem ji\u017e\u00a0<\/span>uvedl<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, ukrajinsk\u00e9 \u00fatoky dron\u016f na rusk\u00e1 energetick\u00e1 aktiva se \u010dasto p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 p\u0159ikl\u00e1daj\u00ed: a\u010dkoli jsou vizu\u00e1ln\u011b dramatick\u00e9, po\u0161kozen\u00ed rafin\u00e9ri\u00ed se uk\u00e1zalo jako relativn\u011b omezen\u00e9 a\u00a0<\/span>opraviteln\u00e9<\/span><\/a>\u00a0. Rusko koneckonc\u016f\u00a0<\/span>absorbovalo<\/span><\/a>\u00a0des\u00edtky takov\u00fdch \u00fatok\u016f a\u00a0<\/span>zm\u00edrnilo<\/span><\/a>\u00a0jejich dopady prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm voln\u00fdch kapacit, p\u0159esm\u011brov\u00e1n\u00ed tras,\u00a0<\/span>zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed exportu ropy<\/span><\/a>\u00a0a \u00faprav v dal\u0161\u00edch za\u0159\u00edzen\u00edch.<\/span><\/p>\n

Jde o to, \u017ee Kyjev m\u016f\u017ee do\u010dasn\u011b naru\u0161it provoz, ale Moskva se m\u016f\u017ee spolehnout na des\u00edtky rafin\u00e9ri\u00ed, nadbyte\u010dnou kapacitu, velk\u00e9 rezervy a schopnost adaptace. Analytici z Mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed energetick\u00e9 agentury nap\u0159\u00edklad potvrdili,\u00a0<\/span>\u017ee<\/span><\/a>\u00a0v\u00fdpadky zp\u016fsobuj\u00ed do\u010dasn\u00e9 poklesy, ani\u017e by ochromily sektor.<\/span><\/p>\n

Jin\u00fdmi slovy, taktick\u00e9 \u00fasp\u011bchy daleko od fronty se automaticky neprom\u00edtaj\u00ed do v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed na boji\u0161ti. V\u00e1lky se st\u00e1le rozhoduj\u00ed na z\u00e1klad\u011b pracovn\u00ed s\u00edly, d\u011blost\u0159electva, logistiky, pr\u016fmyslov\u00e9 produkce a kontroly nad \u00fazem\u00edm. Moskva nad\u00e1le roz\u0161i\u0159uje v\u00fdrobu tank\u016f, gran\u00e1t\u016f, klouzav\u00fdch pum, raket a dron\u016f; jej\u00ed obrann\u00fd pr\u016fmysl se p\u0159esunul na v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e9 podm\u00ednky a produkce munice a dron\u016f navzdory sankc\u00edm v\u00fdrazn\u011b vzrostla. Rusko se nav\u00edc p\u0159izp\u016fsobilo rozpt\u00fdlen\u00edm zdroj\u016f, pos\u00edlen\u00edm lokalit, pos\u00edlen\u00edm elektronick\u00e9ho boje a urychlen\u00edm oprav, \u010d\u00edm\u017e se sn\u00ed\u017eila dlouhodob\u00e1 dopadov\u00e1 s\u00edla \u00fader\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n

Moskva nav\u00edc st\u00e1le po\u0159\u00e1d\u00e1 rozs\u00e1hlej\u0161\u00ed \u00fadern\u00e9\u00a0<\/span>kampan\u011b se stovkami dron\u016f, st\u0159el s plochou dr\u00e1hou letu a balistick\u00fdch syst\u00e9m\u016f ve velk\u00fdch vln\u00e1ch, \u010d\u00edm\u017e si celkov\u011b zachov\u00e1v\u00e1 vynikaj\u00edc\u00ed\u00a0<\/span><\/a>schopnost<\/span><\/a>\u00a0dlouh\u00e9ho doletu\u00a0. Kyjev zase \u010del\u00ed p\u0159etrv\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00edm omezen\u00edm: nedostatku person\u00e1lu, mezer\u00e1m v protivzdu\u0161n\u00e9 obran\u011b, nerovnov\u00e1ze munice a z\u00e1vislosti na pomoci.<\/span><\/p>\n

I kdy\u017e \u00fatoky dron\u016f maj\u00ed v\u00fdznam, \u00fazemn\u00ed pokroky z\u016fst\u00e1vaj\u00ed v\u00fdmluvn\u011bj\u0161\u00edm ukazatelem, a proto organizace jako Institut pro studium v\u00e1lky tak pe\u010dliv\u011b sleduj\u00ed mapy kontroly.<\/span><\/p>\n

To v\u0161e znamen\u00e1, \u017ee \u201ehlubok\u00e9\u201c \u00fadery Ukrajiny nesou skute\u010dnou psychologickou v\u00e1hu a mohou si vy\u017e\u00e1dat n\u00e1klady, ale nem\u011bly by b\u00fdt zam\u011b\u0148ov\u00e1ny s rozhoduj\u00edc\u00edmi strategick\u00fdmi dopady.<\/span><\/p>\n

Moskva m\u00e1 koneckonc\u016f v\u00fdhody v agreg\u00e1tn\u00edch zdroj\u00edch, pr\u016fmyslov\u00e9 z\u00e1kladn\u011b a opera\u010dn\u00ed dynamice v mnoha frontov\u00fdch sektorech. V\u00fdsledek konfliktu v kone\u010dn\u00e9m d\u016fsledku z\u00e1vis\u00ed m\u00e9n\u011b na dramatick\u00fdch z\u00e1b\u011brech z dron\u016f ne\u017e na tvrd\u00e9 realit\u011b vy\u010derp\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed a vyjedn\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nejnov\u011bj\u0161\u00ed kroky ukrajinsk\u00e9ho v\u016fdce sice mohou koupit \u010das a z\u00edskat titulky, ale situace na m\u00edst\u011b nazna\u010duje z pohledu Ukrajiny mnohem obt\u00ed\u017en\u011bj\u0161\u00ed cestu vp\u0159ed. Trp\u011blivost a zdroje Evropy zase nejsou neomezen\u00e9 a politick\u00e1 krajina by se brzy mohla st\u00e1t ob\u011bt\u00ed zm\u011bn.<\/span><\/p>\n

Uriel Araujo, PhD.<\/a> v oboru antropologie, je soci\u00e1ln\u00ed v\u011bdec specializuj\u00edc\u00ed se na etnick\u00e9 a n\u00e1bo\u017eensk\u00e9 konflikty s rozs\u00e1hl\u00fdm v\u00fdzkumem geopolitick\u00e9 dynamiky a kulturn\u00edch interakc\u00ed<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

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Rusk\u00e9 opera\u010dn\u00ed v\u00fdhody st\u00e1le p\u0159eva\u017euj\u00ed nad ok\u00e1zalou kampan\u00ed Kyjeva s dronov\u00fdmi zbran\u011bmi, a to i…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":109692,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[80,1503,22,26],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/109691"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=109691"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/109691\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/109692"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=109691"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=109691"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=109691"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}