{"id":109221,"date":"2026-06-24T00:20:55","date_gmt":"2026-06-23T22:20:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=109221"},"modified":"2026-06-23T13:56:36","modified_gmt":"2026-06-23T11:56:36","slug":"lorenzo-maria-pacini-co-kdyby-mirove-memorandum-mezi-usa-a-iranem-bylo-pasti","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/06\/24\/lorenzo-maria-pacini-co-kdyby-mirove-memorandum-mezi-usa-a-iranem-bylo-pasti\/","title":{"rendered":"Lorenzo Maria Pacini: Co kdyby m\u00edrov\u00e9 memorandum mezi USA a \u00cdr\u00e1nem bylo past\u00ed?"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Vzhledem k tomu, \u017ee Rusko a \u010c\u00edna sleduj\u00ed situaci a v s\u00e1zce je osa odporu, Pezeshkian\u016fv napjat\u00fd podpis nazna\u010duje nevysloven\u00e9 obavy: \u201eDouf\u00e1me, \u017ee jsme ud\u011blali spr\u00e1vnou v\u011bc.\u201c<\/span><\/p>\n

St\u00edny mezi Washingtonem a Teher\u00e1nem<\/span><\/h2>\n

Na v\u0161em, co se pr\u00e1v\u011b te\u010f d\u011bje, je n\u011bco zvl\u00e1\u0161tn\u00edho. Nov\u00fd \u0159\u00e1d na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b se zd\u00e1 b\u00fdt z\u00e1sadn\u011b p\u0159edur\u010den k \u00fasp\u011bchu, p\u0159esto z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 mnoho ot\u00e1zek nezodpov\u011bzen\u00fdch.<\/span><\/p>\n

Anal\u00fdza vnit\u0159n\u00ed dynamiky v americk\u00e9 a \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 vl\u00e1d\u011b vrh\u00e1 znepokojiv\u00e9 st\u00edny.<\/span><\/p>\n

Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty fakticky umo\u017enily \u00cdr\u00e1nu z\u00edskat t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 v\u0161e, co cht\u011bl \u2013 a za jeho vlastn\u00edch podm\u00ednek \u2013 tak\u017ee dohoda je ji\u017e popisov\u00e1na jako v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed pro \u00cdr\u00e1n a por\u00e1\u017eka pro USA. V m\u00edrov\u00e9 dohod\u011b \u2013 i ve form\u011b memoranda \u2013 je v\u0161ak technicky nevhodn\u00e9 hovo\u0159it o \u201ev\u00edt\u011bz\u00edch\u201c a \u201epora\u017een\u00fdch\u201c, proto\u017ee m\u00edr je nejcenn\u011bj\u0161\u00edm aktivem pro n\u00e1rody a pokud je ho dosa\u017eeno, vyhr\u00e1vaj\u00ed ob\u011b strany.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ponech\u00e1me-li stranou tyto technick\u00e9 detaily pro experty, z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 nejasn\u00e9, pro\u010d bylo uzav\u0159eno memorandum a nikoli trval\u00e1 dohoda. Tuto ot\u00e1zku si klade mnoho pozorovatel\u016f. Jedna z mo\u017en\u00fdch odpov\u011bd\u00ed zn\u00ed: Memorandum je past.<\/span><\/p>\n

Americk\u00e1 vl\u00e1da chce zjistit, zda se n\u011bkdo v \u00cdr\u00e1nu nechytil na n\u00e1vnadu. A kdo je tento \u201en\u011bkdo\u201c? Veden\u00ed Isl\u00e1msk\u00fdch revolu\u010dn\u00edch gard (IRGC). Pro\u010d? Proto\u017ee z pohledu Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f \u2013 a v souladu s opakovan\u00fdmi prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00edmi prezidenta pro tisk \u2013 nen\u00ed probl\u00e9mem samotn\u00fd \u00cdr\u00e1n, ani \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fd lid, a dokonce ani vl\u00e1da, ale Revolu\u010dn\u00ed gardy.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pro\u010d? Proto\u017ee maj\u00ed p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 mnoho moci, proto\u017ee ovl\u00e1daj\u00ed osu odporu a proto\u017ee jsou \u2013 jak tvrd\u00ed ameri\u010dt\u00ed analytici \u2013 \u201eteroristick\u00fdmi zlo\u010dinci\u201c. Proto maj\u00ed Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty podle americk\u00e9ho n\u00e1zoru povinnost bojovat proti isl\u00e1msk\u00e9mu terorismu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Vzhledem k tomuto sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159i \u2013 jakkoli nepravd\u011bpodobn\u00fd se m\u016f\u017ee n\u011bkter\u00fdm zd\u00e1t \u2013 je t\u0159eba prozkoumat jeho potenci\u00e1ln\u00ed d\u016fsledky. Pokud by to v\u0161e bylo pravdiv\u00e9, situace by se vyv\u00edjela n\u00e1sledovn\u011b:<\/span><\/p>\n

USA \u010dekaj\u00ed, a\u017e se Revolu\u010dn\u00ed gardy chyt\u00ed do pasti a rozhodnou se proti m\u00edru \u2013 nap\u0159\u00edklad zah\u00e1jen\u00edm dal\u0161\u00edho \u00fatoku, uzav\u0159en\u00edm Hormuzsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu nebo nedodr\u017een\u00edm podm\u00ednek memoranda. V tom okam\u017eiku by Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty mohly reagovat v\u00e1\u017enou vojenskou intervenc\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

To by \u00cdr\u00e1n postavilo do defenz\u00edvy \u2013 s p\u0159idan\u00fdm rizikem ob\u010dansk\u00e9 v\u00e1lky a dal\u0161\u00edho izraelsk\u00e9ho \u00fatoku. Byla by to katastrofa.<\/span><\/p>\n

Co by pak ud\u011blali ostatn\u00ed pozorovatel\u00e9 ve sv\u011bt\u011b? Tato ot\u00e1zka je sm\u011b\u0159ov\u00e1na na Rusko a \u010c\u00ednu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Oba st\u00e1ty podporovaly Pezeshkianovou vl\u00e1du a jej\u00ed \u00fasil\u00ed o m\u00edrov\u00e9 \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed a zasazovaly se o rychl\u00e9 a bezpe\u010dn\u00e9 \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed. Z\u00e1ruka nov\u00e9ho a vyv\u00e1\u017een\u00e9ho \u0159\u00e1du na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b p\u0159edstavuje ide\u00e1ln\u00ed sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 pro ob\u011b velmoci.<\/span><\/p>\n

Vnit\u0159n\u00ed \u201ezhor\u0161en\u00ed\u201c situace v \u00cdr\u00e1nu by podkopalo d\u016fv\u011bru v m\u00edrov\u00fd proces a mohlo by znamenat, \u017ee Rusko a \u010c\u00edna d\u00e1vaj\u00ed Spojen\u00fdm st\u00e1t\u016fm volnou ruku \u2013 co\u017e v podstat\u011b ji\u017e ud\u011blaly b\u011bhem v\u00edce ne\u017e sto dn\u016f konfliktu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Skute\u010dn\u00e1 situace v \u00cdr\u00e1nu nen\u00ed jasn\u00e1. Vnit\u0159n\u00ed nap\u011bt\u00ed ji\u017e existovalo a b\u011bhem m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f p\u0159\u00edm\u00e9ho konfliktu vy\u0161ly najevo rozpory a neshody mezi Revolu\u010dn\u00edmi gardami a pravideln\u00fdmi ozbrojen\u00fdmi silami.<\/span><\/p>\n

V\u00fdraz obli\u010deje prezidenta Mas\u00fada Peze\u0161kiana b\u011bhem podpisu memoranda je v\u0161ak dob\u0159e zn\u00e1m\u00fd: napjat\u00fd a v\u00e1\u017en\u00fd v\u00fdraz. Zdroj p\u0159\u00edtomn\u00fd na jedn\u00e1n\u00edch uvedl, \u017ee prezident \u0159ekl:<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201eDouf\u00e1me, \u017ee jsme pro \u00cdr\u00e1n ud\u011blali spr\u00e1vnou v\u011bc.\u201c<\/span><\/p>\n

Region\u00e1ln\u00ed dopady<\/span><\/h2>\n

Zkusme si p\u0159edstavit, co by takov\u00fd sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 znamenal na region\u00e1ln\u00ed \u00farovni.<\/span><\/p>\n

Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty ji\u017e maj\u00ed v zemi sv\u00e9 s\u00edly a mohly by rychle zas\u00e1hnout proti \u00cdr\u00e1nu \u2013 ale tak\u00e9 jako odstra\u0161uj\u00edc\u00ed prost\u0159edek proti mo\u017en\u00e9 kone\u010dn\u00e9 eskalaci ze strany Izraele.<\/span><\/p>\n

Propuknut\u00ed dal\u0161\u00ed f\u00e1ze konfliktu je nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edm znepokojen\u00edm v\u0161ech pozorovatel\u016f, kte\u0159\u00ed t\u011bsn\u011b sleduj\u00ed podpis dohody v \u017denev\u011b \u2013 hned po digit\u00e1ln\u00edm podpisu n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00edm dohodu z Isl\u00e1m\u00e1b\u00e1du.<\/span><\/p>\n

V\u011bt\u0161ina pozorovatel\u016f se na tuto ud\u00e1lost nad\u00e1le d\u00edv\u00e1 optikou minulosti a p\u0159edpokl\u00e1d\u00e1, \u017ee p\u0159edchoz\u00ed dynamika se bude opakovat. Skute\u010dn\u00e1 geopolitika v\u0161ak nefunguje na z\u00e1klad\u011b setrva\u010dnosti.<\/span><\/p>\n

Kdy\u017e dva strategi\u010dt\u00ed protivn\u00edci zah\u00e1j\u00ed strukturovan\u00fd dialog, jeho dopady sahaj\u00ed daleko za hranice obou z\u00fa\u010dastn\u011bn\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f: ovliv\u0148uj\u00ed cel\u00fd Bl\u00edzk\u00fd v\u00fdchod, Evropu, kontinent\u00e1ln\u00ed Asii a k\u0159ehkou rovnov\u00e1hu glob\u00e1ln\u00ed ekonomiky.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ostatn\u00ed evropsk\u00e9 mocnosti se ji\u017e sna\u017e\u00ed zaujmout svou pozici, zejm\u00e9na Francie. Prezident Emmanuel Macron na summitu G7 vyj\u00e1d\u0159il p\u0159\u00e1n\u00ed z\u00edskat pod\u00edl na ekonomick\u00fdch v\u00fdhod\u00e1ch rekonstrukce.<\/span><\/p>\n

Spojen\u00e9 arabsk\u00e9 emir\u00e1ty se b\u011bhem tiskov\u00e9 konference G7 dostaly pod p\u0159\u00edm\u00fd \u00fatok Trumpa a nyn\u00ed se mus\u00ed pot\u00fdkat s dal\u0161\u00edmi region\u00e1ln\u00edmi akt\u00e9ry. To je do budoucna stav\u00ed do m\u00e9n\u011b p\u0159\u00edzniv\u00e9 pozice, proto\u017ee \u00cdr\u00e1n je ji\u017e nyn\u00ed vn\u00edm\u00e1 s velkou ned\u016fv\u011brou a panuje nap\u011bt\u00ed s P\u00e1kist\u00e1nem a Sa\u00fadskou Ar\u00e1bi\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Izrael je zase st\u0159edem ostr\u00e9 kontroverze a bojkotem m\u00edrov\u00e9 dohody riskuje jednu z nejz\u00e1va\u017en\u011bj\u0161\u00edch chyb ve sv\u00e9 historii. Nap\u011bt\u00ed dos\u00e1hlo kritick\u00e9ho bodu.<\/span><\/p>\n

St\u00e1le jasn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed je, alespo\u0148 na americk\u00e9 stran\u011b, touha Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f ukon\u010dit Osu odporu v jej\u00ed sou\u010dasn\u00e9 podob\u011b. To zase Revolu\u010dn\u00ed gardy dosud nep\u0159ijaly.<\/span><\/p>\n

Osa odporu umo\u017enila postavit se z\u00e1padn\u00edmu imperialismu a p\u0159\u00edmo zajistila p\u0159e\u017eit\u00ed nejen \u00cdr\u00e1nu, ale i Libanonu, Palestiny, Jemenu, Ir\u00e1ku, Afgh\u00e1nist\u00e1nu a na dlouhou dobu i S\u00fdrie.<\/span><\/p>\n

Po\u017eadavek na zni\u010den\u00ed Osy se rovn\u00e1 po\u017eadavku na vytr\u017een\u00ed poloviny srdce \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 revoluce.<\/span><\/p>\n

Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty \u2013 a s nimi i ostatn\u00ed z\u00e1padn\u00ed mocnosti \u2013 nicm\u00e9n\u011b nemohou nal\u00e9zt m\u00edr na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b, dokud je Osa odporu p\u0159ipravena bojovat. Proto se po\u017eaduje jej\u00ed zni\u010den\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ale je to v\u0161echno pro \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 veden\u00ed skute\u010dn\u011b p\u0159ijateln\u00e9?<\/span><\/p>\n

Opravdu stoj\u00ed tato m\u00edrov\u00e1 dohoda za tak radik\u00e1ln\u00ed zm\u011bnu?<\/span><\/p>\n

Tato ot\u00e1zka z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 prozat\u00edm otev\u0159en\u00e1.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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Zdroj<\/span><\/a><\/span><\/h3>\n

 <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Vzhledem k tomu, \u017ee Rusko a \u010c\u00edna sleduj\u00ed situaci a v s\u00e1zce je osa odporu,…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":109222,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,924,38,37],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/109221"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=109221"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/109221\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/109222"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=109221"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=109221"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=109221"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}