{"id":109050,"date":"2026-06-21T00:18:46","date_gmt":"2026-06-20T22:18:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=109050"},"modified":"2026-06-20T14:24:01","modified_gmt":"2026-06-20T12:24:01","slug":"fakta-misto-alarmismu-proc-el-nino-ve-skutecnosti-zpusobuje-globalni-ochlazeni","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/06\/21\/fakta-misto-alarmismu-proc-el-nino-ve-skutecnosti-zpusobuje-globalni-ochlazeni\/","title":{"rendered":"Fakta m\u00edsto alarmismu: Pro\u010d El Ni\u00f1o ve skute\u010dnosti zp\u016fsobuje glob\u00e1ln\u00ed ochlazen\u00ed"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Hlavn\u00ed m\u00e9dia v sou\u010dasnosti p\u0159et\u00e9kaj\u00ed hroziv\u00fdmi varov\u00e1n\u00edmi: P\u0159edpokl\u00e1d\u00e1 se, \u017ee bl\u00ed\u017e\u00edc\u00ed se \u201esuper El Ni\u00f1o\u201c zv\u00fd\u0161\u00ed glob\u00e1ln\u00ed teploty na neb\u00fdvalou \u00farove\u0148 a v nadch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00edch letech masivn\u011b ovlivn\u00ed na\u0161e po\u010das\u00ed. Jak\u00fd je ale skute\u010dn\u00fd klimatick\u00fd dopad tohoto jevu? Podle n\u011bkolika studi\u00ed se jedn\u00e1 o ochlazuj\u00edc\u00ed efekt.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Abychom pochopili paradox El Ni\u00f1o, mus\u00edme striktn\u011b rozli\u0161ovat mezi kr\u00e1tkodob\u00fdm po\u010das\u00edm a dlouhodob\u00fdm klimatem. Klima je definov\u00e1no jako pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9 po\u010das\u00ed za obdob\u00ed del\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e 30 let. Pokud se jevy El Ni\u00f1o (naz\u00fdvan\u00e9 tak\u00e9 Los Ni\u00f1os) posuzuj\u00ed za takov\u00e9 obdob\u00ed, ukazuj\u00ed se jako ochlazuj\u00edc\u00ed jevy. Pohled na historii klimatu a fyzik\u00e1ln\u00ed realitu odhaluje p\u0159ekvapiv\u00fd obraz: Na rozd\u00edl od v\u0161eobecn\u00e9ho strachu nejsou jevy El Ni\u00f1o z dlouhodob\u00e9ho hlediska hnac\u00ed silou glob\u00e1ln\u00edho oteplov\u00e1n\u00ed \u2013 ve skute\u010dnosti planetu v\u00fdrazn\u011b ochlazuj\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Z\u00e1kladn\u00edm mechanismem je fyzik\u00e1ln\u00ed princip termodynamiky. B\u011bhem jevu El Ni\u00f1o uvol\u0148uje tropick\u00fd Tich\u00fd oce\u00e1n do atmosf\u00e9ry obrovsk\u00e9 mno\u017estv\u00ed tepeln\u00e9 energie (tepla). Toto teplo se distribuuje po cel\u00e9m sv\u011bt\u011b prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm atmosf\u00e9rick\u00e9 cirkulace \u2013 zejm\u00e9na na severn\u00ed polokouli. D\u016fsledek je nepopirateln\u00fd: za\u017e\u00edv\u00e1me tepl\u00e9 po\u010das\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Teplota v oblasti Vintheru v Gr\u00f3nsku a z\u00e1stupn\u00fd ukazatel ENSO (po\u010det ud\u00e1lost\u00ed za 100 let) pro Moysovo teplo. ENSO je zkratka pro El Ni\u00f1o Southern Oscillation a p\u0159edstavuje cel\u00fd cyklus El Ni\u00f1o a\u017e La Ni\u00f1a v Tich\u00e9m oce\u00e1nu.<\/span><\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Ale co se stane d\u00e1l? T\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 ve\u0161ker\u00e1 tepeln\u00e1 energie p\u0159enesen\u00e1 do atmosf\u00e9ry b\u011bhem takov\u00e9 ud\u00e1losti nakonec vyza\u0159uje do vesm\u00edru. Zem\u011b energii ztr\u00e1c\u00ed. Jen miziv\u011b mal\u00fd zlomek tohoto tepla uvoln\u011bn\u00e9ho z oce\u00e1n\u016f se vrac\u00ed do mo\u0159\u00ed. Jak ukazuje studie Wonga a Minnetta (2018) publikovan\u00e1 v \u010dasopise JGR Oceans s n\u00e1zvem \u201e\u00a0<\/span>Reakce tepeln\u00e9 vrstvy oce\u00e1nu na zm\u011bny dopadaj\u00edc\u00edho infra\u010derven\u00e9ho z\u00e1\u0159en\u00ed<\/span><\/a>\u00a0\u201c, infra\u010derven\u00e9 z\u00e1\u0159en\u00ed odra\u017een\u00e9 atmosf\u00e9rou nem\u016f\u017ee proniknout k hladin\u011b vody. Pouze p\u0159\u00edm\u00e9 slune\u010dn\u00ed sv\u011btlo je schopno v\u00fdrazn\u011b oh\u0159\u00e1t hlub\u0161\u00ed vrstvy oce\u00e1nu. El Ni\u00f1o je tedy jako otev\u0159en\u00fd ventil, kter\u00fdm oce\u00e1n \u201eodv\u00e1d\u00ed\u201c teplo do vesm\u00edru.<\/span><\/p>\n

Paleoklimatologie dokazuje, \u017ee El Ni\u00f1o nen\u00ed v\u00fdsledkem stabiln\u00edch vln veder. V\u00fdzkumn\u00edci jako Christopher Moy (Syrakusk\u00e1 univerzita) analyzovali vrstvy sediment\u016f z p\u00e1nve Laguna Pallcacocha v Ekv\u00e1doru. Tato oblast je ide\u00e1ln\u00ed jako klimatick\u00fd archiv, proto\u017ee anom\u00e1ln\u011b tepl\u00e1 povrchov\u00e1 voda b\u011bhem jevu El Ni\u00f1o okam\u017eit\u011b spou\u0161t\u00ed siln\u00e9 konvek\u010dn\u00ed proudy a sr\u00e1\u017eky. Data publikovan\u00e1 v \u010dasopise Nature pod n\u00e1zvem \u201e\u00a0<\/span>Prom\u011bnlivost aktivity El Ni\u00f1o\/ji\u017en\u00ed oscilace v tis\u00edcilet\u00fdch \u010dasov\u00fdch m\u011b\u0159\u00edtc\u00edch b\u011bhem holoc\u00e9nu<\/span><\/a>\u00a0\u201c to potvrzuj\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Moy\u016fv datov\u00fd soubor o tepl\u00fdch jevech El Ni\u00f1o je mod\u0159e zn\u00e1zorn\u011bn (lev\u00e1 stupnice) a Rosenthal\u016fv datov\u00fd soubor o teplot\u00e1ch severn\u00edho Pacifiku oran\u017eov\u011b zn\u00e1zorn\u011bn (prav\u00e1 stupnice) jsou p\u0159ekryt\u00e9. Zdroje dat: (\u00a0<\/span>Moy et al., 2002<\/span><\/a>\u00a0) a (\u00a0<\/span>Rosenthal et al., 2013<\/span><\/a>\u00a0).<\/span><\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

B\u011bhem teplej\u0161\u00edch a stabiln\u011bj\u0161\u00edch obdob\u00ed v historii Zem\u011b El Ni\u00f1o v\u011bt\u0161inou chyb\u011blo. V tzv. holoc\u00e9nn\u00edm klimatick\u00e9m optimu byly takov\u00e9 jevy extr\u00e9mn\u011b vz\u00e1cn\u00e9, co\u017e potvrzuje nespo\u010det geologick\u00fdch z\u00e1stupn\u00fdch dat z okol\u00ed Tich\u00e9ho oce\u00e1nu. Tato anom\u00e1lie je vysv\u011btlena fluktuacemi zemsk\u00e9 ob\u011b\u017en\u00e9 dr\u00e1hy (Milankovi\u0107ovy cykly) (Clement a kol., 2000, \u201e\u00a0<\/span>Potla\u010den\u00ed El Ni\u00f1a v polovin\u011b holoc\u00e9nu zm\u011bnami zemsk\u00e9 ob\u011b\u017en\u00e9 dr\u00e1hy<\/span><\/a>\u00a0\u201c, publikov\u00e1no v \u010dasopise Paleooceanography). Kdy\u017e slune\u010dn\u00ed z\u00e1\u0159en\u00ed na severn\u00ed polokouli dos\u00e1hlo v l\u00e9t\u011b sv\u00e9ho maxima, jevy El Ni\u00f1o byly jednodu\u0161e potla\u010deny. Tyto jevy byly vz\u00e1cn\u00e9 i b\u011bhem st\u0159edov\u011bk\u00e9ho tepl\u00e9ho obdob\u00ed. Kdy se tedy najednou objevily ve velk\u00e9m mno\u017estv\u00ed? P\u0159esn\u011b tehdy, kdy\u017e Zem\u011b za\u010dala mrznout.<\/span><\/p>\n

Historick\u00e1 data jasn\u011b ukazuj\u00ed, \u017ee s po\u010d\u00e1tkem neoglaci\u00e1ln\u00edho obdob\u00ed asi p\u0159ed 3 800 lety \u2013 kdy se v l\u00e9t\u011b na severn\u00ed polokouli sn\u00ed\u017eilo slune\u010dn\u00ed z\u00e1\u0159en\u00ed \u2013 prudce vzrostl v\u00fdskyt jevu El Ni\u00f1o. Stejn\u00fd vzorec je patrn\u00fd i b\u011bhem tzv. mal\u00e9 doby ledov\u00e9, kter\u00e1 za\u010dala kolem roku 1200 n. l. Na za\u010d\u00e1tku a s t\u00edm, jak se Zem\u011b d\u00e1le ochlazovala (asi do roku 1750), se El Ni\u00f1o vyskytovalo extr\u00e9mn\u011b \u010dasto. Teprve kdy\u017e se sv\u011bt za\u010dal zotavovat z nejni\u017e\u0161\u00edho bodu mal\u00e9 doby ledov\u00e9 a znovu se oteplovat, po\u010det jev\u016f El Ni\u00f1o klesl.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Tento historick\u00fd kontext vrh\u00e1 sou\u010dasn\u00e1 varov\u00e1n\u00ed p\u0159ed nov\u00fdm \u201esuper-El Ni\u00f1o\u201c do zcela jin\u00e9ho sv\u011btla. Kdy\u017e se varov\u00e1n\u00ed p\u0159ed dal\u0161\u00edm \u201eoteplov\u00e1n\u00edm\u201c planety v d\u016fsledku El Ni\u00f1o vyd\u00e1vaj\u00ed cel\u00e9 t\u00fddny, p\u0159\u00ed\u010dina a n\u00e1sledek se obracej\u00ed. Fakta ve skute\u010dnosti nazna\u010duj\u00ed opa\u010dn\u00fd z\u00e1v\u011br: Historicky je tepl\u00e9 a stabiln\u00ed klima spojov\u00e1no s velmi mal\u00fdm po\u010dtem ud\u00e1lost\u00ed El Ni\u00f1o. Kdy\u017e se v\u0161ak zv\u00fd\u0161\u00ed, je to v historii Zem\u011b \u010dasto sign\u00e1l pro za\u010d\u00e1tek ochlazov\u00e1n\u00ed klimatu.<\/span><\/p>\n

V sou\u010dasn\u00e9 dob\u011b se nach\u00e1z\u00edme na konci tzv. modern\u00edho slune\u010dn\u00edho maxima (modern\u00edho tepl\u00e9ho obdob\u00ed). Skute\u010dnost, \u017ee v t\u00e9to f\u00e1zi nyn\u00ed pozorujeme n\u00e1r\u016fst v\u00fdskytu jev\u016f El Ni\u00f1o, by mohla \u2013 v rozporu s p\u0159evl\u00e1daj\u00edc\u00edm narativem klimatick\u00fdch fanatik\u016f ohledn\u011b CO2 \u2013 nazna\u010dovat, \u017ee za\u010d\u00edn\u00e1 nov\u00e1, chladn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed kapitola v historii Zem\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n

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 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Hlavn\u00ed m\u00e9dia v sou\u010dasnosti p\u0159et\u00e9kaj\u00ed hroziv\u00fdmi varov\u00e1n\u00edmi: P\u0159edpokl\u00e1d\u00e1 se, \u017ee bl\u00ed\u017e\u00edc\u00ed se \u201esuper El Ni\u00f1o\u201c…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":109051,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,1100,65],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/109050"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=109050"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/109050\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/109051"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=109050"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=109050"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=109050"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}