{"id":108941,"date":"2026-06-19T00:20:28","date_gmt":"2026-06-18T22:20:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=108941"},"modified":"2026-06-18T14:10:16","modified_gmt":"2026-06-18T12:10:16","slug":"larry-c-johnson-co-motivovalo-trumpa-k-uzavreni-dohody-s-iranem","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/06\/19\/larry-c-johnson-co-motivovalo-trumpa-k-uzavreni-dohody-s-iranem\/","title":{"rendered":"Larry C. Johnson: Co motivovalo Trumpa k uzav\u0159en\u00ed dohody s \u00cdr\u00e1nem?"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"fb-root\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-1fb4c2c elementor-widget elementor-widget-theme-post-content\" data-id=\"1fb4c2c\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"theme-post-content.default\">\n<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><span dir=\"auto\">Abych citoval Jamese Carvilla: \u201eJe to ekonomika, ty hlup\u00e1ku!\u201c<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">V pond\u011bl\u00ed jsem napsal(a):<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em><span dir=\"auto\">Ot\u00e1zka, kterou bychom si proto m\u011bli polo\u017eit, zn\u00ed: Pro\u010d Donald Trump ustoupil a p\u0159ijal n\u00e1vrh, kter\u00fd \u00cdr\u00e1n p\u0159edlo\u017eil ji\u017e v dubnu?<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em><span dir=\"auto\">Mysl\u00edm, \u017ee existuje n\u011bkolik d\u016fvod\u016f, ale t\u00edm nejd\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00edm je, \u017ee USA doch\u00e1z\u00ed ropa. To znamen\u00e1, \u017ee Trump u\u017e nem\u016f\u017ee um\u011ble udr\u017eovat n\u00edzk\u00e9 ceny benzinu. Podle CNN klesly strategick\u00e9 rezervy ropy USA na nejni\u017e\u0161\u00ed \u00farove\u0148 od roku 1983. Pokles byl zp\u016fsoben pokra\u010duj\u00edc\u00edm odb\u011brem ropy s c\u00edlem zm\u00edrnit dopady konfliktu s \u00cdr\u00e1nem. Rezervy klesly na 340,3 milionu barel\u016f \u2013 \u00farove\u0148, kter\u00e1 byla naposledy zaznamen\u00e1na za Reaganovy administrativy, kdy se rezervy st\u00e1le je\u0161t\u011b budovaly. Denn\u00ed spot\u0159eba v USA se v roce 2026 p\u0159edpokl\u00e1d\u00e1 mezi 20 a 21 miliony barel\u016f. To znamen\u00e1, \u017ee rezervy vydr\u017e\u00ed 17 dn\u00ed \u2013 do 1. \u010dervence.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Dnes m\u016fj dobr\u00fd p\u0159\u00edtel Pepe Escobar ozn\u00e1mil, \u017ee Donald Trump byl o v\u00edkendu informov\u00e1n \u2013 pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b ministrem energetiky Chrisem Wrightem \u2013 \u017ee strategick\u00e9 rezervy ropy se rapidn\u011b zmen\u0161uj\u00ed a mohly by b\u00fdt vy\u010derp\u00e1ny b\u011bhem n\u011bkolika t\u00fddn\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Kdo by si pomyslel, \u017ee to Donald Trump s\u00e1m potvrd\u00ed b\u011bhem sv\u00e9 tiskov\u00e9 konference, na kter\u00e9 oznamoval dohodu s \u00cdr\u00e1nem?<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Trump dnes novin\u00e1\u0159\u016fm \u0159ekl, \u017ee kdyby nebyl Hormuzsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv znovu otev\u0159en, z\u00e1soby ropy by byly vy\u010derp\u00e1ny do \u010dty\u0159 t\u00fddn\u016f. Jeho p\u0159esn\u00e1 slova zn\u011bla:<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em><span dir=\"auto\">\u201eNa\u0161e z\u00e1soby vydr\u017e\u00ed asi na \u010dty\u0159i t\u00fddny. V\u00edte, z\u00e1soby jsou po cel\u00e9m sv\u011bt\u011b, ale n\u00e1m by opravdu do\u0161ly a pak by p\u0159i\u0161la doba, kdy byste u\u017e nemohli sehnat \u017e\u00e1dnou dal\u0161\u00ed ropu.\u201c<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Tak\u017ee tady to m\u00e1te: Trump a jeho nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed ekonomi\u010dt\u00ed a energetick\u00ed poradci si uv\u011bdomuj\u00ed, \u017ee americk\u00e1 ekonomika by se mohla zhroutit je\u0161t\u011b p\u0159ed koncem l\u00e9ta. To by v\u00fdrazn\u011b ohrozilo \u0161ance republik\u00e1n\u016f na udr\u017een\u00ed kontroly nad Sen\u00e1tem a Sn\u011bmovnou reprezentant\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Pokud jste si je\u0161t\u011b nep\u0159e\u010detli Memorandum o porozum\u011bn\u00ed (MoU), zde je:<\/span><\/p>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span dir=\"auto\">Pln\u00e9 zn\u011bn\u00ed Isl\u00e1m\u00e1b\u00e1dsk\u00e9ho memoranda o porozum\u011bn\u00ed mezi \u00cdr\u00e1nskou isl\u00e1mskou republikou a Spojen\u00fdmi st\u00e1ty americk\u00fdmi<\/span><\/h3>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">\u00cdr\u00e1nsk\u00e1 isl\u00e1msk\u00e1 republika a Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty americk\u00e9 se dne 18. \u010dervna 2026 spole\u010dn\u011b a v dobr\u00e9 v\u00ed\u0159e dohodly na n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00edm:<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><span dir=\"auto\">1.<\/span><\/strong><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0\u00cdr\u00e1nsk\u00e1 isl\u00e1msk\u00e1 republika, Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty americk\u00e9 a jejich spojenci v sou\u010dasn\u00e9 v\u00e1lce prohla\u0161uj\u00ed podpisem tohoto memoranda okam\u017eit\u00e9 a trval\u00e9 ukon\u010den\u00ed v\u0161ech vojensk\u00fdch operac\u00ed na v\u0161ech front\u00e1ch, v\u010detn\u011b Libanonu. Zavazuj\u00ed se, \u017ee v budoucnu nezah\u00e1j\u00ed \u017e\u00e1dnou v\u00e1lku ani vojensk\u00e9 operace proti sob\u011b navz\u00e1jem, zdr\u017e\u00ed se hrozeb nebo pou\u017eit\u00ed s\u00edly a zaru\u010d\u00ed \u00fazemn\u00ed celistvost a svrchovanost Libanonu. Kone\u010dn\u00e1 dohoda potvrd\u00ed trval\u00e9 ukon\u010den\u00ed v\u00e1lky na v\u0161ech front\u00e1ch, v\u010detn\u011b Libanonu, jako\u017e i zb\u00fdvaj\u00edc\u00ed ustanoven\u00ed t\u00e9to klauzule.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><span dir=\"auto\">2.<\/span><\/strong><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0\u00cdr\u00e1nsk\u00e1 isl\u00e1msk\u00e1 republika a Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty se zavazuj\u00ed respektovat vz\u00e1jemnou suverenitu a \u00fazemn\u00ed celistvost a nevm\u011b\u0161ovat se do vnit\u0159n\u00edch z\u00e1le\u017eitost\u00ed toho druh\u00e9ho.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><span dir=\"auto\">3.<\/span><\/strong><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0Ob\u011b strany se zavazuj\u00ed v\u00e9st jedn\u00e1n\u00ed a dos\u00e1hnout kone\u010dn\u00e9 dohody nejpozd\u011bji do 60 dn\u016f. Tuto lh\u016ftu lze po vz\u00e1jemn\u00e9 dohod\u011b prodlou\u017eit.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><span dir=\"auto\">4.<\/span><\/strong><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0Ihned po podpisu tohoto memoranda za\u010dnou Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty ru\u0161it svou n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed blok\u00e1du a ve\u0161ker\u00e9 formy obt\u011b\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed nebo obstrukce v\u016f\u010di \u00cdr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 isl\u00e1msk\u00e9 republice a blok\u00e1du zcela ukon\u010d\u00ed do 30 dn\u016f. B\u011bhem tohoto obdob\u00ed bude lodn\u00ed doprava obnovena v pom\u011bru k p\u0159edv\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e9 \u00farovni. Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty se rovn\u011b\u017e zavazuj\u00ed st\u00e1hnout sv\u00e9 ozbrojen\u00e9 s\u00edly z pohrani\u010dn\u00edch oblast\u00ed \u00cdr\u00e1nu do 30 dn\u016f od uzav\u0159en\u00ed kone\u010dn\u00e9 dohody.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><span dir=\"auto\">5.<\/span><\/strong><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0Po podpisu tohoto memoranda \u00cdr\u00e1nsk\u00e1 isl\u00e1msk\u00e1 republika s maxim\u00e1ln\u00edm \u00fasil\u00edm zaru\u010d\u00ed bezpe\u010dnou a bezplatnou plavbu obchodn\u00edch lod\u00ed mezi Persk\u00fdm a Om\u00e1nsk\u00fdm z\u00e1livem po dobu 60 dn\u016f. N\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed doprava m\u00e1 b\u00fdt zah\u00e1jena okam\u017eit\u011b a pln\u011b obnovena do 30 dn\u016f s p\u0159ihl\u00e9dnut\u00edm k technick\u00fdm a vojensk\u00fdm p\u0159ek\u00e1\u017ek\u00e1m a tak\u00e9 k odminov\u00e1n\u00ed ze strany \u00cdr\u00e1nu. \u00cdr\u00e1n bude s Om\u00e1nsk\u00fdm sultan\u00e1tem jednat o budouc\u00ed spr\u00e1v\u011b a n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00edch slu\u017eb\u00e1ch v Hormuzsk\u00e9m pr\u016flivu p\u0159i respektov\u00e1n\u00ed mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edho pr\u00e1va a suver\u00e9nn\u00edch pr\u00e1v pob\u0159e\u017en\u00edch st\u00e1t\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><span dir=\"auto\">6.<\/span><\/strong><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty se spolu se sv\u00fdmi region\u00e1ln\u00edmi partnery zavazuj\u00ed k vytvo\u0159en\u00ed z\u00e1vazn\u00e9ho programu pro obnovu a hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00fd rozvoj \u00cdr\u00e1nu s minim\u00e1ln\u00edm rozpo\u010dtem 300 miliard USD. Implementa\u010dn\u00ed mechanismus bude stanoven v kone\u010dn\u00e9 dohod\u011b do 60 dn\u016f. Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty poskytnou ve\u0161ker\u00e1 pot\u0159ebn\u00e1 schv\u00e1len\u00ed, v\u00fdjimky a licence pro odpov\u00eddaj\u00edc\u00ed finan\u010dn\u00ed transakce.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><span dir=\"auto\">7.<\/span><\/strong><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty se zavazuj\u00ed zru\u0161it v\u0161echny sankce v\u016f\u010di \u00cdr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 isl\u00e1msk\u00e9 republice, v\u010detn\u011b rezoluc\u00ed Rady bezpe\u010dnosti OSN, rozhodnut\u00ed Rady guvern\u00e9r\u016f Mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed agentury pro atomovou energii a v\u0161ech prim\u00e1rn\u00edch a sekund\u00e1rn\u00edch sankc\u00ed USA, a to v souladu s harmonogramem, kter\u00fd bude dohodnut v kone\u010dn\u00e9 dohod\u011b. Ob\u011b strany uzn\u00e1vaj\u00ed z\u00e1sadn\u00ed v\u00fdznam zru\u0161en\u00ed sankc\u00ed a vyjad\u0159uj\u00ed sv\u016fj z\u00e1m\u011br tyto ot\u00e1zky urychlen\u011b \u0159e\u0161it v r\u00e1mci jedn\u00e1n\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><span dir=\"auto\">8.<\/span><\/strong><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0\u00cdr\u00e1nsk\u00e1 isl\u00e1msk\u00e1 republika znovu potvrzuje sv\u016fj z\u00e1vazek nevyr\u00e1b\u011bt ani nez\u00edsk\u00e1vat jadern\u00e9 zbran\u011b. Ob\u011b strany se dohodly, \u017ee budou \u0159e\u0161it status z\u00e1sob obohacen\u00fdch materi\u00e1l\u016f prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm spole\u010dn\u011b dohodnut\u00e9ho mechanismu a v souladu s harmonogramem stanoven\u00fdm v \u010dl\u00e1nku 7, nebo alespo\u0148 prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm m\u00edstn\u00edho \u0159ed\u011bn\u00ed pod dohledem Mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed agentury pro atomovou energii. Ot\u00e1zky obohacov\u00e1n\u00ed uranu a dal\u0161\u00ed z\u00e1le\u017eitosti t\u00fdkaj\u00edc\u00ed se \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fdch jadern\u00fdch pot\u0159eb budou d\u00e1le projedn\u00e1v\u00e1ny v r\u00e1mci uspokojiv\u00e9m pro ob\u011b strany. Kone\u010dn\u00e1 dohoda tato ustanoven\u00ed potvrd\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><span dir=\"auto\">9.<\/span><\/strong><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0Dokud nebude dosa\u017eeno kone\u010dn\u00e9 dohody, z\u016fstane zachov\u00e1n status quo. \u00cdr\u00e1n bude pokra\u010dovat ve sv\u00e9m sou\u010dasn\u00e9m jadern\u00e9m programu, zat\u00edmco Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty neuval\u00ed nov\u00e9 sankce ani nenasad\u00ed do regionu dal\u0161\u00ed jednotky.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><span dir=\"auto\">10.<\/span><\/strong><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty se zavazuj\u00ed, \u017ee ihned po podpisu memoranda ud\u011bl\u00ed ministerstvu financ\u00ed v\u00fdjimky pro v\u00fdvoz \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 ropy, petrochemick\u00fdch produkt\u016f a v\u0161ech souvisej\u00edc\u00edch slu\u017eeb \u2013 v\u010detn\u011b bankovnictv\u00ed, poji\u0161\u0165ovnictv\u00ed a dopravy.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><span dir=\"auto\">11.<\/span><\/strong><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty se zavazuj\u00ed pln\u011b uvolnit omezen\u00e9 nebo zmrazen\u00e9 finan\u010dn\u00ed prost\u0159edky a aktiva \u00cdr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 isl\u00e1msk\u00e9 republiky. Postup uvoln\u011bn\u00ed bude stanoven b\u011bhem jedn\u00e1n\u00ed. Tyto finan\u010dn\u00ed prost\u0159edky mus\u00ed b\u00fdt pln\u011b k dispozici jak\u00e9mukoli kone\u010dn\u00e9mu p\u0159\u00edjemci ur\u010den\u00e9mu guvern\u00e9rem \u00cdr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky. Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty poskytnou ve\u0161ker\u00e1 pot\u0159ebn\u00e1 schv\u00e1len\u00ed a licence.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><span dir=\"auto\">12.<\/span><\/strong><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0Ob\u011b strany se dohodly na vytvo\u0159en\u00ed mechanismu pro sledov\u00e1n\u00ed \u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u00e9ho prov\u00e1d\u011bn\u00ed tohoto memoranda a n\u00e1sledn\u00e9ho dodr\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed kone\u010dn\u00e9 dohody.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><span dir=\"auto\">13.<\/span><\/strong><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0Po podpisu memoranda a zah\u00e1jen\u00ed prov\u00e1d\u011bn\u00ed ustanoven\u00ed 1, 4, 5, 10 a 11 zah\u00e1j\u00ed \u00cdr\u00e1nsk\u00e1 isl\u00e1msk\u00e1 republika a Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty jedn\u00e1n\u00ed v\u00fdhradn\u011b o zb\u00fdvaj\u00edc\u00edch ustanoven\u00edch kone\u010dn\u00e9 dohody.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><span dir=\"auto\">14.<\/span><\/strong><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0Kone\u010dn\u00e1 dohoda bude potvrzena z\u00e1vaznou rezoluc\u00ed Rady bezpe\u010dnosti Organizace spojen\u00fdch n\u00e1rod\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Trump m\u00e1 v\u0161ak st\u00e1le jeden probl\u00e9m: Znovuotev\u0159en\u00ed Hormuzsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu neznamen\u00e1, \u017ee \u00fazk\u00e1 hrdla na glob\u00e1ln\u00edm trhu s ropou okam\u017eit\u011b zmiz\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Otev\u0159en\u00ed pr\u016flivu je nezbytnou podm\u00ednkou pro normalizaci dod\u00e1vek ropy, ale v \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b ne posta\u010duj\u00edc\u00ed. N\u011bkolik faktor\u016f zpozd\u00ed znateln\u00e9 uvoln\u011bn\u00ed tlaku na sv\u011btov\u00e9 trhy o t\u00fddny nebo dokonce m\u011bs\u00edce.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span dir=\"auto\">Probl\u00e9m ukotven\u00fdch tanker\u016f<\/span><\/h3>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Mnoho tanker\u016f le\u017e\u00ed v Persk\u00e9m z\u00e1livu a\u017e \u010dty\u0159i m\u011bs\u00edce nalo\u017een\u00fdch ropou. Tato ropa ji\u017e nen\u00ed v optim\u00e1ln\u00edm stavu. Extr\u00e9mn\u00ed horko m\u016f\u017ee zp\u016fsobit ztr\u00e1ty kvality, tvorbu sediment\u016f a zm\u011bny v t\u011b\u017e\u0161\u00edch slo\u017ek\u00e1ch. Mnoho n\u00e1klad\u016f mus\u00ed b\u00fdt p\u0159ed dod\u00e1n\u00edm testov\u00e1no, sm\u00edch\u00e1no nebo zpracov\u00e1no.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Krom\u011b toho samotn\u00e9 lod\u011b st\u00e1ly cel\u00e9 m\u011bs\u00edce. Motory se musely opatrn\u011b znovu spou\u0161t\u011bt, zne\u010di\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed trupu sni\u017eovalo rychlost a n\u011bkter\u00e9 lod\u011b vy\u017eaduj\u00ed technick\u00e9 kontroly, ne\u017e se jim dovol\u00ed znovu vyplout.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">I kdyby v\u0161echny tankery vypluly okam\u017eit\u011b, p\u0159\u00edstavy a rafinerie by nedok\u00e1zaly zvl\u00e1dnout z\u00e1plavu z\u00e1silek sou\u010dasn\u011b. Je nutn\u00e9 koordinovat kotvi\u0161t\u011b, skladovac\u00ed kapacity a vyu\u017eit\u00ed rafineri\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span dir=\"auto\">Probl\u00e9m s dobou p\u0159epravy<\/span><\/h3>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Ani za norm\u00e1ln\u00edch podm\u00ednek se ropa na sv\u011btov\u00e9m trhu neobjev\u00ed okam\u017eit\u011b. Cesta supertankeru z \u00cdr\u00e1nu nebo Sa\u00fadsk\u00e9 Ar\u00e1bie do Rotterdamu trv\u00e1 p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 18 a\u017e 25 dn\u00ed. N\u00e1sleduje vykl\u00e1dka, zpracov\u00e1n\u00ed v rafin\u00e9rii a distribuce.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Ani nov\u011b nalo\u017een\u00e1 ropa by se proto ke spot\u0159ebitel\u016fm jako benz\u00edn nebo nafta dostala a\u017e po dobu nejm\u00e9n\u011b p\u011bti a\u017e sedmi t\u00fddn\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span dir=\"auto\">Probl\u00e9m s doly<\/span><\/h3>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Tohle by mohlo b\u00fdt nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed \u00fazk\u00e9 hrdlo ze v\u0161ech.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Memorandum pouze zavazuje \u00cdr\u00e1n k vynalo\u017een\u00ed \u201eco nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edho \u00fasil\u00ed\u201c na otev\u0159en\u00ed pr\u016flivu a odminov\u00e1n\u00ed. Odminov\u00e1n\u00ed mo\u0159sk\u00fdch min je v\u0161ak pomal\u00fd a n\u00e1kladn\u00fd proces.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Hormuzsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv je v neju\u017e\u0161\u00edm m\u00edst\u011b \u0161irok\u00fd pouze asi 21 n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00edch mil a pro lodn\u00ed dopravu jsou k dispozici pouze dva pr\u016flivy, ka\u017ed\u00fd \u0161irok\u00fd asi dv\u011b m\u00edle. \u00cdr\u00e1n m\u011bl na polo\u017een\u00ed min \u010dty\u0159i m\u011bs\u00edce.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Ka\u017ed\u00e1 podez\u0159el\u00e1 mina mus\u00ed b\u00fdt lokalizov\u00e1na, identifikov\u00e1na a zne\u0161kodn\u011bna nebo odp\u00e1lena. V sou\u010dasn\u00e9 dob\u011b neexistuje mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed shoda na tom, kdo je odpov\u011bdn\u00fd za odstra\u0148ov\u00e1n\u00ed a kdy jsou p\u0159epravn\u00ed kan\u00e1ly pova\u017eov\u00e1ny za bezpe\u010dn\u00e9.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Podle dubnov\u00e9 zpr\u00e1vy den\u00edku Washington Post Pentagon informoval Kongres, \u017ee \u00fapln\u00e9 vy\u010di\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed Hormuzsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu by mohlo trvat a\u017e \u0161est m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span dir=\"auto\">Probl\u00e9m s poji\u0161t\u011bn\u00edm<\/span><\/h3>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Dokud bude region pova\u017eov\u00e1n za vysoce rizikovou oblast, z\u016fstanou pojistn\u00e9 sazby extr\u00e9mn\u011b vysok\u00e9. Poji\u0161\u0165ovny nebudou m\u011bnit svou klasifikaci pouze na z\u00e1klad\u011b diplomatick\u00e9ho dokumentu, ale a\u017e po del\u0161\u00edm obdob\u00ed bez incident\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Mnoho p\u0159epravn\u00edch spole\u010dnost\u00ed proto nepos\u00edl\u00e1 sv\u00e9 nejcenn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed tankery vodami, kter\u00e9 jsou pova\u017eov\u00e1ny za nebezpe\u010dn\u00e9 nebo je lze pojistit pouze za obrovsk\u00e9 n\u00e1klady.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span dir=\"auto\">Celkov\u00fd obraz<\/span><\/h3>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Znovuotev\u0159en\u00ed Hormuzsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu je p\u0159edpokladem pro normalizaci trhu s ropou \u2013 nikoli normalizace samotn\u00e1.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Realisticky vzato se lodn\u00ed doprava zpo\u010d\u00e1tku obnov\u00ed opatrn\u011b. Pot\u00e9 bude n\u00e1sledovat postupn\u00e1 certifikace uvoln\u011bn\u00fdch p\u0159epravn\u00edch tras, n\u00e1vrat pravideln\u00fdch p\u0159epravn\u00edch spole\u010dnost\u00ed a nakonec \u2013 o n\u011bkolik t\u00fddn\u016f pozd\u011bji \u2013 samotn\u00fd p\u0159\u00edchod dal\u0161\u00edch mno\u017estv\u00ed ropy do rafineri\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Rozumn\u00fd odhad je, \u017ee sv\u011btov\u00e9 trhy by mohly za\u010d\u00edt z dne\u0161n\u00ed dohody znateln\u011b t\u011b\u017eit nejd\u0159\u00edve za \u0161est a\u017e deset t\u00fddn\u016f \u2013 za p\u0159edpokladu, \u017ee nedojde k \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fdm incident\u016fm, k \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fdm z\u00e1sah\u016fm do min, k \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fdm politick\u00fdm ne\u00fasp\u011bch\u016fm a \u00cdr\u00e1n bude spolupracovat na odminov\u00e1n\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">A\u010dkoli je Trumpovo rozhodnut\u00ed uzav\u0159\u00edt memorandum s \u00cdr\u00e1nem pozitivn\u00edm krokem (a m\u00fdlil jsem se ve sv\u00e9m odhadu, \u017ee se tak nestane), cesta k ekonomick\u00e9mu o\u017eiven\u00ed a stabilizaci sv\u011btov\u00fdch trh\u016f je st\u00e1le vzd\u00e1lena m\u011bs\u00edce.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Je\u0161t\u011b jedna ironick\u00e1 pozn\u00e1mka: Trump podepsal memorandum elektronicky v Zrcadlov\u00e9 s\u00edni Versaillesk\u00e9ho pal\u00e1ce \u2013 na stejn\u00e9m m\u00edst\u011b, kde byla po prvn\u00ed sv\u011btov\u00e9 v\u00e1lce podeps\u00e1na Versaillesk\u00e1 smlouva. Zda Trump v t\u00e9 dob\u011b myslel na v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed Spojenc\u016f, je jist\u011b ot\u00e1zkou.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-8c57238 quelle dc-has-condition dc-condition-empty elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"8c57238\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n<h3 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\"><span style=\"font-size: 10pt;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/sonar21.com\/what-triggered-trump-to-make-the-deal-with-iran\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\"><span dir=\"auto\">Zdroj<\/span><\/a><\/span><\/h3>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Abych citoval Jamese Carvilla: \u201eJe to ekonomika, ty hlup\u00e1ku!\u201c V pond\u011bl\u00ed jsem napsal(a): Ot\u00e1zka, kterou&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":108942,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[38,955,452,37],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/108941"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=108941"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/108941\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/108942"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=108941"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=108941"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=108941"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}