{"id":108930,"date":"2026-06-19T00:14:46","date_gmt":"2026-06-18T22:14:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=108930"},"modified":"2026-06-18T13:57:15","modified_gmt":"2026-06-18T11:57:15","slug":"po-iranske-valce-konec-jedne-ery-ne-jako-upadek-ale-jako-spoustec-nahle-zmeny","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/06\/19\/po-iranske-valce-konec-jedne-ery-ne-jako-upadek-ale-jako-spoustec-nahle-zmeny\/","title":{"rendered":"Po \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 v\u00e1lce: Konec jedn\u00e9 \u00e9ry, ne jako \u00fapadek, ale jako spou\u0161t\u011b\u010d n\u00e1hl\u00e9 zm\u011bny"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Trumpovo \u0161krt\u00edc\u00ed sev\u0159en\u00ed ropy, cel a technologi\u00ed se uk\u00e1zalo jako kontraproduktivn\u00ed \u2013 vytv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed novou \u00e9ru sob\u011bsta\u010dn\u00fdch ekonomik a mezigenera\u010dn\u00ed konfrontace.<\/span><\/p>\n

V ned\u00e1vn\u00e9 diskusi profesor Michael Hudson argumentuje proti t\u011bm, kte\u0159\u00ed hovo\u0159\u00ed o \u201e\u00fapadku americk\u00e9ho hegemona\u201c. \u00dapadek, tvrd\u00ed Hudson, p\u0159edpokl\u00e1d\u00e1, \u017ee n\u011bco stoup\u00e1 a kles\u00e1, ale v\u017edy se zotavuje. \u201eAle statisticky vzato nikdy nedo\u0161lo k ni\u010demu jako cyklus… Nen\u00ed to \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fd \u00fapadek, je to krach.\u201c<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201eJsme sv\u011bdky konce jedn\u00e9 \u00e9ry, nikoli \u00fapadku, ale n\u00e1hl\u00e9 zm\u011bny. A tato zm\u011bna nep\u0159ich\u00e1z\u00ed zven\u010d\u00ed: Konec americk\u00e9 moci nen\u00ed zp\u016fsoben \u017e\u00e1dnou zahrani\u010dn\u00ed ob\u010danskou v\u00e1lkou ani jinou v\u00e1lkou proti americk\u00e9 hegemonii. Konec p\u0159i\u0161el ze samotn\u00fdch Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f, z jejich snahy prosadit sv\u00e9 hegemonsk\u00e9 z\u00e1jmy proti z\u00e1jm\u016fm v\u0161ech ostatn\u00edch zem\u00ed.\u201c<\/span><\/p>\n

Paradoxn\u011b, podle profesora Hudsona:<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201eKa\u017ed\u00e9 opat\u0159en\u00ed p\u0159ijat\u00e9 k \u00faniku z americk\u00e9ho \u201a\u00fapadku\u2018 se stalo mechanismem, kter\u00fd ho zp\u016fsobuje. USA \u0161ly do v\u00e1lky, aby si udr\u017eely hegemonii \u2013 a dok\u00e1zaly, \u017ee u\u017e nemohou dominovat\u2026 \u010cty\u0159icet let prosazovaly politiku maxim\u00e1ln\u00edho tlaku na zlomen\u00ed \u00cdr\u00e1nu a m\u00edsto toho vytvo\u0159ily pr\u00e1v\u011b toho protivn\u00edka, kter\u00fd nyn\u00ed [zpochyb\u0148uje americkou dominanci].\u201c<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

Aby si prezident Trump zachoval moc Ameriky, pokusil se zav\u00e9st \u0159adu omezen\u00ed na celou glob\u00e1ln\u00ed ekonomiku \u201ekontrolou ropy \u2013 proto\u017ee ji ka\u017ed\u00fd pot\u0159ebuje,\u201c \u0159ekl Hudson.<\/span><\/p>\n

Skute\u010dnost, \u017ee Trump zah\u00e1jil v\u00e1lku proti \u00cdr\u00e1nu a Rusku a inicioval pokus o udr\u017een\u00ed \u010c\u00edny v jej\u00edm dr\u017een\u00ed, sama o sob\u011b nep\u0159edstavuje celou matici americk\u00e9ho udr\u017een\u00ed moci. Tato matice je \u0161ir\u0161\u00ed. Ropa je v\u0161ak jedn\u00edm z jej\u00edch nejd\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00edch rozm\u011br\u016f \u2013 stejn\u011b jako s n\u00ed spojen\u00e1 hegemonie dolaru. Trump si zjevn\u011b p\u0159eje upevnit glob\u00e1ln\u00ed energetickou kontrolu, aby USA mohly ur\u010dovat, kdo m\u00e1 k energii p\u0159\u00edstup (tj. ne \u00cdr\u00e1n, ne Rusko, ne Kuba) a \u010d\u00ed dod\u00e1vky energie jsou omezeny, aby se omezila konkurenceschopnost (tj. \u010c\u00edna).<\/span><\/p>\n

Na druhou stranu, dodavatel\u00e9 energie, jako je Rusko, byli sankcemi uvalov\u00e1ny pr\u00e1v\u011b proto, aby se omezilo, kdo m\u016f\u017ee ruskou ropu a plyn dost\u00e1vat. Klientsk\u00e9 st\u00e1ty imperi\u00e1ln\u00ed mocnosti (tj. Evropa) se zd\u00e1ly b\u00fdt p\u0159ekvapiv\u011b ochotn\u00e9 jednat jako vymahatel\u00e9 americk\u00e9ho energetick\u00e9ho sev\u0159en\u00ed \u2013 a t\u00edm se samy o sob\u011b prom\u011bnit v produktivn\u00ed zdroj sankc\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Dal\u0161\u00edmi aspekty (krom\u011b ropn\u00e9 dominance) americk\u00e9ho pokusu o uplatn\u011bn\u00ed dominantn\u00edho vlivu nad ekonomikami zbytku sv\u011bta jsou za prv\u00e9 celn\u00ed politika \u2013 kterou Trump doufal, \u017ee donut\u00ed poddajn\u00e9 st\u00e1ty z\u016fstat loaj\u00e1ln\u00ed v\u016f\u010di Washingtonu, p\u0159izp\u016fsobit se politice USA a dod\u00e1vat Americe suroviny, kter\u00e9 pot\u0159ebuje \u2013 v\u00fdm\u011bnou za za\u0159azen\u00ed do washingtonsk\u00e9 \u201es\u00edt\u011b zasv\u011bcen\u00fdch osob\u201c (klientsk\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f Ameriky).<\/span><\/p>\n

V podstat\u011b existuj\u00ed dv\u011b washingtonsk\u00e9 \u201es\u00edt\u011b zasv\u011bcen\u00fdch osob\u201c: jedna se skl\u00e1d\u00e1 z Trumpa, jeho rodiny a jeho roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00fdch obchodn\u00edch partner\u016f; druh\u00e1 se skl\u00e1d\u00e1 z Trumpov\u00fdch chr\u00e1n\u011bnc\u016f v zahrani\u010d\u00ed (st\u00e1ty Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu atd.).<\/span><\/p>\n

Celn\u00ed politika je v podstat\u011b zdvo\u0159il\u00fd zp\u016fsob, jak \u0159\u00edct: \u201ePou\u017eijeme cla, energetickou krizi nebo finan\u010dn\u00ed krizi k naru\u0161en\u00ed va\u0161ich ekonomik, pokud nebudete souhlasit s p\u0159ipojen\u00edm k \u201as\u00edti\u2018 veden\u00e9 USA.\u201c<\/span><\/p>\n

Ani cla, ani politika omezov\u00e1n\u00ed dod\u00e1vek energie se v\u0161ak neobe\u0161ly bez ne\u00fasp\u011bch\u016f, v neposledn\u00ed \u0159ad\u011b proto, \u017ee \u00cdr\u00e1n odm\u00edtl vyhov\u011bt a pokra\u010doval v dod\u00e1vk\u00e1ch ropy \u010c\u00edn\u011b a dal\u0161\u00edm \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fdm spojenc\u016fm.<\/span><\/p>\n

Novou \u201enohou\u201c politiky \u0161krt\u00edc\u00edho sev\u0159en\u00ed je proto iniciativa \u201ePax Silica\u201c. Arnaud Bertrand vysv\u011btluje, \u017ee Trumpova administrativa \u201ev\u00fdslovn\u011b objasnila sv\u016fj \u201asyndik\u00e1ln\u00ed\u2018 \u00fa\u010del\u201c:<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201eZem\u011b se p\u0159ipoj\u00ed, slad\u00ed sv\u00e9 dodavatelsk\u00e9 \u0159et\u011bzce s Washingtonem, vylou\u010d\u00ed \u010c\u00ednu (zdvo\u0159ile popisovanou jako ty, kter\u00e9 se zapojuj\u00ed do \u201enetr\u017en\u00edch praktik\u201c a \u201enekal\u00e9ho dumpingu\u201c) \u2013 a na opl\u00e1tku z\u00edskaj\u00ed p\u0159\u00edstup k imperi\u00e1ln\u00edmu technologick\u00e9mu ekosyst\u00e9mu.\u201c<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201ePokud by p\u0159etrv\u00e1valy n\u011bjak\u00e9 pochybnosti, n\u00e1m\u011bstek ministra zahrani\u010d\u00ed Jacob Helberg \u2013 b\u00fdval\u00fd \u010dlen Palantieru, kter\u00fd je architektem t\u00e9to iniciativy \u2013 to jasn\u011b \u0159\u00edk\u00e1: Kdokoli ovl\u00e1dne \u201av\u00fdpo\u010detn\u00ed techniku \u200b\u200ba nerosty, kter\u00e9 ji \u017eiv\u00ed\u2018, ur\u010d\u00ed 21. stolet\u00ed, a chce kolem Washingtonu vytvo\u0159it skupinu \u201aspojeneck\u00fdch\u2018 zem\u00ed v \u201anov\u00e9m konsensu o ekonomick\u00e9 bezpe\u010dnosti\u2018, aby zajistil, \u017ee to budou oni, kdo tak u\u010din\u00ed.\u201c<\/span><\/p>\n

Trumpova v\u00e1lka \u201eMake America Great Again\u201c m\u00e1 proto glob\u00e1ln\u00ed d\u016fsledky. Sv\u011bt se nem\u016f\u017ee jednodu\u0161e vr\u00e1tit k tomu, jak to bylo p\u0159edt\u00edm. Wall Street a \u201etrhy\u201c se zdaj\u00ed v\u011b\u0159it, \u017ee je to pravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9 a dokonce nevyhnuteln\u00e9 (nedok\u00e1\u017eou si p\u0159edstavit \u017e\u00e1dnou jinou budoucnost), ale zbytek sv\u011bta vn\u00edm\u00e1 v\u00e1lku s \u00cdr\u00e1nem jako syst\u00e9mov\u00fd posun k nov\u00e9 \u00e9\u0159e, a to pr\u00e1v\u011b proto, \u017ee fosiln\u00ed paliva, hnojiva a dal\u0161\u00ed souvisej\u00edc\u00ed produkty jsou slo\u017ekami, kter\u00e9 \u201eudr\u017euj\u00ed sv\u011bt v chodu\u201c.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00cdr\u00e1nsk\u00e1 v\u00e1lka povede k v\u011bt\u0161\u00edmu glob\u00e1ln\u00edmu uv\u011bdom\u011bn\u00ed si, \u017ee zem\u011b pot\u0159ebuj\u00ed (alespo\u0148) potravinovou suverenitu, aby se ochr\u00e1nily p\u0159ed americk\u00fdm zneu\u017e\u00edv\u00e1n\u00edm zahrani\u010dn\u00edho obchodu s potravinami, ropou, hnojivy a prakticky \u010d\u00edmkoli dal\u0161\u00edm, \u010deho\u017e mohou USA vytvo\u0159it nedostatek a zneu\u017e\u00edt ho jako zbra\u0148. To znamen\u00e1 n\u00e1vrat k sob\u011bsta\u010dn\u00fdm ekonomik\u00e1m s vlastn\u00edm ob\u011bhem \u2013 na rozd\u00edl od modelu Sv\u011btov\u00e9 banky, kter\u00fd je \u201eexportn\u011b orientovan\u00fd\u201c a financovan\u00fd dluhem.<\/span><\/p>\n

Profesor Andrej Bezrukov z rusk\u00e9 univerzity MGIMO a b\u00fdval\u00fd d\u016fstojn\u00edk rozv\u011bdky SVR se 3. \u010dervna 2026 na petrohradsk\u00e9m f\u00f3ru zab\u00fdval v\u00fdzvami m\u011bn\u00edc\u00edho se sv\u011bta. A\u010dkoli sv\u00e9 koment\u00e1\u0159e pronesl v rusk\u00e9m kontextu, jeho post\u0159ehy jsou relevantn\u00ed po cel\u00e9m sv\u011bt\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ve sv\u00e9m projevu, kter\u00fd shrnula Laura Ru, Bezrukov argumentoval, \u017ee Rusko vstoupilo do nov\u00e9, vlekl\u00e9 glob\u00e1ln\u00ed konfrontace se Z\u00e1padem. V\u011b\u0159il, \u017ee tento konflikt p\u0159edstavuje z\u00e1sadn\u00ed posun v povaze v\u00e1l\u010den\u00ed, kter\u00fd bude v dohledn\u00e9 budoucnosti formovat ruskou politiku a spole\u010dnost.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201eBezrukov zd\u016fraznil, \u017ee sou\u010dasn\u00fd (vojensk\u00fd) konflikt nen\u00ed prim\u00e1rn\u011b o dob\u00fdv\u00e1n\u00ed \u00fazem\u00ed, kter\u00e9 podle jeho popisu ztratilo velkou \u010d\u00e1st sv\u00e9 tradi\u010dn\u00ed hodnoty. Sp\u00ed\u0161e se jedn\u00e1 o vy\u010derp\u00e1vac\u00ed v\u00e1lku zam\u011b\u0159enou na podkop\u00e1n\u00ed kritick\u00fdch syst\u00e9m\u016f, v\u010detn\u011b infrastruktury, s\u00edt\u00ed velen\u00ed a \u0159\u00edzen\u00ed, technologi\u00ed, vesm\u00edrn\u00fdch zdroj\u016f, biologick\u00e9 bezpe\u010dnosti a informa\u010dn\u00ed oblasti\u2026 \u201aStrategie Z\u00e1padu v t\u00e9to v\u00e1lce je velmi jednoduch\u00e1: vyhnout se jadern\u00e9 sr\u00e1\u017ece s n\u00e1mi, z n\u00ed\u017e by vy\u0161li jako pora\u017een\u00ed. Proto va\u0159\u00ed \u017e\u00e1bu na m\u00edrn\u00e9m ohni.\u2018\u201c<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201eVaroval, \u017ee Rusko mus\u00ed po\u010d\u00edtat s t\u00edm, \u017ee z\u016fstane ve v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e9m stavu po mnoho let, mo\u017en\u00e1 20 a\u017e 30 let. B\u011bhem t\u00e9to doby se Rusko mus\u00ed nau\u010dit koexistovat s realitou v\u00e1lky a z\u00e1rove\u0148 pokra\u010dovat ve sv\u00e9m hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9m rozvoji.\u201c<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201e\u00dast\u0159edn\u00edm t\u00e9matem jeho projevu byla ostr\u00e1 kritika sou\u010dasn\u00e9ho p\u0159\u00edstupu Ruska. Bezrukov argumentoval, \u017ee zem\u011b byla ke sv\u00fdm protivn\u00edk\u016fm p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 shov\u00edvav\u00e1 \u2013 \u201aJsme pomal\u00ed. Dovolujeme [na\u0161im nep\u0159\u00e1tel\u016fm] p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 mnoho. Neboj\u00ed se n\u00e1s\u2026 proto\u017ee mnoho, mnoho \u010derven\u00fdch lini\u00ed, o kter\u00fdch jsme mluvili, z\u016fstalo jen na pap\u00ed\u0159e.\u2018\u201c<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201eAby se Bezrukov p\u0159izp\u016fsobil t\u00e9to nov\u00e9 realit\u011b, vyzval k z\u00e1sadn\u00ed restrukturalizaci st\u00e1tu a ekonomiky. Nal\u00e9hal na vytvo\u0159en\u00ed civiln\u011b-vojensk\u00e9ho partnerstv\u00ed schopn\u00e9ho jak rozvoje, tak dlouhodob\u00e9 obrany. Kritick\u00e1 infrastruktura \u2013 jako jsou datov\u00e1 centra, sklady ropy a komunika\u010dn\u00ed uzly \u2013 mus\u00ed b\u00fdt p\u0159esunuta do podzem\u00ed nebo chr\u00e1n\u011bna stejn\u00fdm zp\u016fsobem jako jadern\u00e9 elektr\u00e1rny. Zd\u016fraznil tak\u00e9 pot\u0159ebu p\u0159eklenout propast mezi arm\u00e1dou a civiln\u00ed spole\u010dnost\u00ed a prosazovat asertivn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed politiku. Rusko nem\u016f\u017ee o\u010dek\u00e1vat rychl\u00fd n\u00e1vrat k m\u00edrov\u00fdm podm\u00ednk\u00e1m, a proto mus\u00ed odpov\u00eddaj\u00edc\u00edm zp\u016fsobem reorganizovat svou spole\u010dnost, ekonomiku a strategii.\u201c<\/span><\/p>\n

Bezrukov\u016fv projev p\u0159it\u00e1hl zna\u010dnou pozornost d\u00edky sv\u00e9mu t\u00f3nu a v\u00fdzv\u011b Rusku k psychologick\u00e9 a struktur\u00e1ln\u00ed adaptaci na generace trvaj\u00edc\u00ed \u00e9ru konfrontace \u2013 t\u00e9ma, kter\u00e9mu se ji\u017e rozs\u00e1hle v\u011bnoval profesor Sergej Karaganov.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tyto dva \u010dl\u00e1nky p\u0159edstavuj\u00ed m\u011bn\u00edc\u00ed se sv\u011bt, kter\u00fd se sna\u017e\u00ed restrukturalizovat tv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed v tv\u00e1\u0159 agresivn\u00ed tv\u00e1\u0159i upadaj\u00edc\u00edho americk\u00e9ho hegemona a hled\u00e1 zp\u016fsoby, jak izolovat sv\u00e9 ekonomiky od americk\u00fdch cel, energetick\u00fdch, technologick\u00fdch a dolarov\u00fdch \u00fatok\u016f na zbytek sv\u011bta a z\u00e1rove\u0148 se p\u0159izp\u016fsobit nov\u00e9 \u00e9\u0159e asymetrick\u00e9 geopolitick\u00e9 v\u00e1lky, kterou p\u0159inesla v\u00e1lka s \u00cdr\u00e1nem.<\/span><\/p>\n

Profesor Hudson uzav\u00edr\u00e1:<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201e\u00cdr\u00e1n bojuje za zp\u016fsob \u017eivota proti lidem, kte\u0159\u00ed jim cht\u011bj\u00ed vz\u00edt mo\u017enost utv\u00e1\u0159et si vlastn\u00ed budoucnost. O to v tomto boji jde. A v kone\u010dn\u00e9m d\u016fsledku je to mor\u00e1ln\u00ed boj, kter\u00fd se prom\u00edt\u00e1 do ekonomick\u00e9ho boje a obchodn\u00edho boje \u2013 a vede k tomuto [glob\u00e1ln\u00edmu] rozd\u011blen\u00ed.\u201c<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

Pr\u00e1v\u011b tento mor\u00e1ln\u00ed, civiliza\u010dn\u00ed zp\u016fsob byt\u00ed versus radik\u00e1ln\u011b materialistick\u00e9 vakuum USA za Trumpovy \u00e9ry pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b definuje ob\u010dansk\u00e9 a glob\u00e1ln\u00ed v\u00e1lky na\u0161\u00ed doby.<\/span><\/p>\n

Alastair Crooke<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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Zdroj<\/span><\/a><\/em><\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Trumpovo \u0161krt\u00edc\u00ed sev\u0159en\u00ed ropy, cel a technologi\u00ed se uk\u00e1zalo jako kontraproduktivn\u00ed \u2013 vytv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed novou \u00e9ru…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":108931,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,310,276,37],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/108930"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=108930"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/108930\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/108931"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=108930"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=108930"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=108930"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}