{"id":108861,"date":"2026-06-18T00:18:40","date_gmt":"2026-06-17T22:18:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=108861"},"modified":"2026-06-17T15:01:36","modified_gmt":"2026-06-17T13:01:36","slug":"pochybnosti-o-dohode-narustaji-libanonsky-a-iransky-zastupci-vyzyvaji-usa-aby-zkrotily-izrael-a-zajistily-tak-mir-v-regionu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/06\/18\/pochybnosti-o-dohode-narustaji-libanonsky-a-iransky-zastupci-vyzyvaji-usa-aby-zkrotily-izrael-a-zajistily-tak-mir-v-regionu\/","title":{"rendered":"Pochybnosti o dohod\u011b nar\u016fstaj\u00ed: Libanonsk\u00fd a \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fd z\u00e1stupci vyz\u00fdvaj\u00ed USA, aby zkrotily Izrael a zajistily tak m\u00edr v regionu"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"fb-root\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-1fb4c2c elementor-widget elementor-widget-theme-post-content\" data-id=\"1fb4c2c\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"theme-post-content.default\">\n<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n<h2 class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><span dir=\"auto\">Shrnut\u00ed:<\/span><\/strong><\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li><em><span dir=\"auto\">\u00cdr\u00e1n: M\u00edrov\u00e1 dohoda vy\u017eaduje sta\u017een\u00ed Izraele z Libanonu<\/span><\/em><\/li>\n<li><em><span dir=\"auto\">Obavy z Hormuzsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu po prakticky podeps\u00e1n\u00ed dohody mezi USA a \u00cdr\u00e1nem polevuj\u00ed \u2013 ale ne\u017e se dod\u00e1vky energie normalizuj\u00ed, bude to je\u0161t\u011b trvat m\u011bs\u00edce.<\/span><\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">***<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Podle tureck\u00e9 st\u00e1tn\u00ed tiskov\u00e9 agentury Anadolu se p\u0159edt\u00edm telefonicky spojil p\u0159edseda libanonsk\u00e9ho parlamentu Nabih Berri a jeho \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fd prot\u011bj\u0161ek Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, v n\u011bm\u017e vyzvali USA, aby donutily Izrael ukon\u010dit krvavou v\u00e1lku proti Libanonu, p\u0159estat ni\u010dit domy a st\u00e1hnout se z okupovan\u00fdch libanonsk\u00fdch \u00fazem\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">\u00cdr\u00e1n\u0161t\u00ed vl\u00e1dn\u00ed p\u0159edstavitel\u00e9 d\u0159\u00edve prohl\u00e1sili, \u017ee jak\u00e1koli m\u00edrov\u00e1 dohoda s USA by vy\u017eadovala sta\u017een\u00ed izraelsk\u00fdch vojsk z ji\u017en\u00edho Libanonu.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">AA d\u00e1le uvedla:<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em><span dir=\"auto\">V\u00fdzva zazn\u011bla b\u011bhem telefonick\u00e9ho rozhovoru mezi Berrim a Qalibafem, v n\u011bm\u017e diskutovali o nejnov\u011bj\u0161\u00edm v\u00fdvoji v regionu po dohod\u011b mezi USA a \u00cdr\u00e1nem o ukon\u010den\u00ed v\u00e1lky na v\u0161ech front\u00e1ch, v\u010detn\u011b Libanonu, jak informovala libanonsk\u00e1 st\u00e1tn\u00ed tiskov\u00e1 agentura NNA.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em><span dir=\"auto\">Oba politici tak\u00e9 diskutovali o \u201evojensk\u00e9m a politick\u00e9m v\u00fdvoji v souvislosti s memorandem o porozum\u011bn\u00ed mezi USA a \u00cdr\u00e1nem, zejm\u00e9na o klauzuli o ukon\u010den\u00ed izraelsk\u00e9 v\u00e1lky proti Libanonu,\u201c uvedla agentura.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em><span dir=\"auto\">Zd\u016fraznili \u201epot\u0159ebu, aby Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty, garanti Memoranda o porozum\u011bn\u00ed, a mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed spole\u010denstv\u00ed splnily sv\u00e9 povinnosti t\u00edm, \u017ee donut\u00ed Izrael ukon\u010dit v\u00e1lku, zastavit ni\u010den\u00ed vesnic, respektovat svrchovanost Libanonu a okam\u017eit\u011b se st\u00e1hnout z \u00fazem\u00ed, kter\u00e1 okupuje.\u201c<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Mezit\u00edm hebrejsk\u00fd report\u00e9r I24NEWS Guy Azriel napsal na X: \u201eNyn\u00ed mohu potvrdit, \u017ee Izrael ofici\u00e1ln\u011b po\u017e\u00e1dal o p\u0159\u00edstup k \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9mu memorandu o porozum\u011bn\u00ed a tento po\u017eadavek byl zam\u00edtnut. Pozoruhodn\u00fd a velmi neobvykl\u00fd v\u00fdvoj mezi bl\u00edzk\u00fdmi spojenci v ot\u00e1zce tak z\u00e1sadn\u00edho v\u00fdznamu pro n\u00e1rodn\u00ed bezpe\u010dnost.\u201c<\/span><\/p>\n<div class=\"twitter-tweet twitter-tweet-rendered\"><iframe id=\"twitter-widget-0\" class=\"\" title=\"X Post\" src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/embed\/Tweet.html?dnt=false&amp;embedId=twitter-widget-0&amp;features=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%3D%3D&amp;frame=false&amp;hideCard=false&amp;hideThread=false&amp;id=2066876451811389713&amp;lang=cs&amp;origin=https%3A%2F%2Funcutnews.ch%2Fzweifel-am-abkommen-wachsen-libanesische-und-iranische-vertreter-fordern-die-usa-auf-israel-zu-bremsen-um-den-frieden-in-der-region-zu-sichern-und-weitere-updates%2F&amp;sessionId=219e4b37169cc9b8352496ae0863a9aed976c4db&amp;theme=light&amp;widgetsVersion=6a3ad42b224df%3A1778106238597&amp;width=550px\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\" data-tweet-id=\"2066876451811389713\" data-mce-fragment=\"1\"><\/iframe><\/div>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em><strong><span dir=\"auto\">P\u0159eklad \u201eX\u201c<\/span><\/strong><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0: Nyn\u00ed mohu potvrdit, \u017ee Izrael ofici\u00e1ln\u011b po\u017e\u00e1dal o p\u0159\u00edstup k memorandu o porozum\u011bn\u00ed s \u00cdr\u00e1nem a obdr\u017eel odm\u00edtnut\u00ed. Pozoruhodn\u00fd a velmi neobvykl\u00fd v\u00fdvoj mezi bl\u00edzk\u00fdmi spojenci v z\u00e1le\u017eitosti tak z\u00e1sadn\u00edho v\u00fdznamu pro n\u00e1rodn\u00ed bezpe\u010dnost.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Prezident Trump kritizoval izraelsk\u00e9 akce v boj\u00edch proti Hizball\u00e1hu jako p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 krvav\u00e9.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\"><strong><span dir=\"auto\">Obavy z Hormuzsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu ustupuj\u00ed, Trump a Ghalibaf prakticky podepsali dohodu mezi USA a \u00cdr\u00e1nem \u2013 ale ne\u017e se dod\u00e1vky energie normalizuj\u00ed, bude to je\u0161t\u011b trvat m\u011bs\u00edce.<\/span><\/strong><\/h2>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><span dir=\"auto\">Prezident Trump, viceprezident J. D. Vance a p\u0159edseda \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9ho parlamentu Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf prakticky podepsali m\u00edrovou dohodu, kter\u00e1<\/span><\/strong><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0ukon\u010duje americkou n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed blok\u00e1du Hormuzsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu, \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fdch p\u0159\u00edstav\u016f a \u200b\u200bcel\u00e9ho regionu Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu a zahajuje 60denn\u00ed jadern\u00e1 jedn\u00e1n\u00ed, informovala CNN s odvol\u00e1n\u00edm na vysoce postaven\u00e9 americk\u00e9 zdroje.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Text tzv. \u201eMemoranda o porozum\u011bn\u00ed\u201c \u2013 \u010dtrn\u00e1ctibodov\u00e9ho dokumentu, kter\u00fd m\u00e1 v\u00e9st k dvoum\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u00edmu prodlou\u017een\u00ed p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed a zah\u00e1jen\u00ed jedn\u00e1n\u00ed o \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9m jadern\u00e9m programu \u2013 dosud nebyl zve\u0159ejn\u011bn.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Trump v\u0161ak p\u0159es noc prohl\u00e1sil, \u017ee podm\u00ednky dohody budou ozn\u00e1meny \u201edocela brzy\u201c, pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b po ofici\u00e1ln\u00edm podpisov\u00e9m ceremoni\u00e1lu v p\u00e1tek v \u017denev\u011b. Trump, kter\u00fd se \u00fa\u010dastn\u00ed summitu G7 ve Francii, nazna\u010dil, \u017ee se podpisov\u00e9ho ceremoni\u00e1lu koncem tohoto t\u00fddne nez\u00fa\u010dastn\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">O\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1 se, \u017ee viceprezident Vance v p\u00e1tek povede americkou delegaci ve \u0160v\u00fdcarsku, aby ofici\u00e1ln\u011b podepsal p\u0159edb\u011b\u017enou m\u00edrovou dohodu s p\u0159edsedou \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9ho parlamentu Mohammadem Bagherem Ghalibafem.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Trump odm\u00edtl zpr\u00e1vy mainstreamov\u00fdch m\u00e9di\u00ed, \u017ee jeho administrativa zva\u017euje pro \u00cdr\u00e1n fond ve v\u00fd\u0161i 300 miliard dolar\u016f jako sou\u010d\u00e1st dohody o ukon\u010den\u00ed v\u00e1lky.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">\u201e\u00cdr\u00e1n souhlasil, \u017ee nikdy nebude vlastnit jadern\u00e9 zbran\u011b! P\u0159\u00edb\u011bh, \u017ee USA plat\u00ed \u00cdr\u00e1nu 300 milion\u016f dolar\u016f, je tak\u00e9 fale\u0161n\u00e1 zpr\u00e1va \u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00e1 \u201ademokraty\u2018!!!\u201c napsal Trump v p\u0159\u00edsp\u011bvku na Truth Social.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Trumpovy koment\u00e1\u0159e na Truth Social n\u00e1sledovaly kr\u00e1tce pot\u00e9, kdy viceprezident Vance prohl\u00e1sil, \u017ee \u00cdr\u00e1nc\u016fm by mohl b\u00fdt poskytnut \u201ep\u0159\u00edstup\u201c k fondu obnovy ve v\u00fd\u0161i 300 miliard dolar\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">\u201eTo je druh podpory, k n\u00ed\u017e by mohli m\u00edt p\u0159\u00edstup \u2013 financovan\u00e9 koalic\u00ed Gulf Coast \u2013 pokud spln\u00ed svou \u010d\u00e1st z\u00e1vazk\u016f,\u201c vysv\u011btlil Vance v rozhovoru pro CBS News.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">P\u0159edb\u011b\u017en\u00e1 m\u00edrov\u00e1 dohoda signalizuje v\u00fdznamn\u00fd diplomatick\u00fd pr\u016flom, p\u0159esto\u017ee Izrael je i nad\u00e1le proti. Premi\u00e9r Benjamin Netanjahu prohl\u00e1sil, \u017ee se s Trumpem \u201ene v\u017edy shoduj\u00ed\u201c. Konflikt mezi Izraelem a \u00cdr\u00e1nem podporovan\u00fdm Hizball\u00e1hem pokra\u010doval v pond\u011bl\u00ed v ji\u017en\u00edm Libanonu.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Vzhledem k pl\u00e1novan\u00e9mu otev\u0159en\u00ed Hormuzsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu v p\u00e1tek by blok\u00e1dy a p\u0159et\u00ed\u017een\u00e1 n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed trasa mohly b\u00fdt brzy minulost\u00ed, ale dopad na fyzick\u00e9 trhy by mohl trvat m\u011bs\u00edce, ne-li d\u00e9le.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><span dir=\"auto\">Amarpreet Singh, analytik pro komodity a energetiku v Barclays, ponechal svou progn\u00f3zu ceny ropy Brent na leto\u0161n\u00edch 100 USD\/barel.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Singh vysv\u011btlil:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><em><span dir=\"auto\">Pokud by byla p\u0159edb\u011b\u017en\u00e1 dohoda o uvoln\u011bn\u00ed dvojit\u00e9 blok\u00e1dy Hormuzsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu realizov\u00e1na, na\u010dasov\u00e1n\u00ed obnoven\u00ed voln\u00e9 plavby Hormuzsk\u00fdm pr\u016flivem by se mohlo do zna\u010dn\u00e9 m\u00edry shodovat s na\u0161\u00ed z\u00e1kladn\u00ed progn\u00f3zou na konec \u010dervna. Trv\u00e1me na na\u0161em odhadu, \u017ee v tomto sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159i by pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e1 cena ropy Brent v roce 2026 m\u011bla dos\u00e1hnout 100 USD\/barel.<\/span><\/em><\/li>\n<li><em><span dir=\"auto\">Toto je 16. t\u00fdden v\u00e1lky s \u00cdr\u00e1nem a prvn\u00edch 11 t\u00fddn\u016f vedlo k poklesu celkov\u00fdch glob\u00e1ln\u00edch z\u00e1sob ropy o v\u00edce ne\u017e 350 milion\u016f barel\u016f. Minul\u00fd t\u00fdden byly celkov\u00e9 americk\u00e9 komer\u010dn\u00ed z\u00e1soby ropy ji\u017e pod minimem z po\u010d\u00e1tku roku 2022 a prudce klesaly.<\/span><\/em><\/li>\n<li><em><span dir=\"auto\">V na\u0161em z\u00e1kladn\u00edm sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159i p\u0159edpov\u00edd\u00e1me pro 3. \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed 2026 mal\u00fd deficit, jeliko\u017e cyklick\u00fd popt\u00e1vkov\u00fd motor je stejn\u011b siln\u00fd jako od roku 2022. Doporu\u010dujeme koupit kalend\u00e1\u0159n\u00ed spread \u201eprosinec 2026 m\u00ednus prosinec 2027\u201c na futures kontrakty na Brent, kter\u00fd je v dob\u011b psan\u00ed tohoto \u010dl\u00e1nku 4,67 USD\/barel.<\/span><\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><span dir=\"auto\">Normalizace fyzick\u00fdch trh\u016f s energi\u00ed by mohla trvat mnoho m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Pokra\u010doval:<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em><span dir=\"auto\">USA a \u00cdr\u00e1n dos\u00e1hly dohody o zm\u00edrn\u011bn\u00ed omezen\u00ed obchodn\u00edch tok\u016f p\u0159es Persk\u00fd z\u00e1liv na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b; form\u00e1ln\u00ed podpis se o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1 do p\u00e1tku. Zat\u00edmco prvn\u00ed n\u00e1znaky nazna\u010duj\u00ed, \u017ee by voln\u00e1 plavba p\u0159es Hormuzsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv mohla b\u00fdt obnovena do konce m\u011bs\u00edce, neznamen\u00e1 to okam\u017eitou normalizaci fyzick\u00fdch dodavatelsk\u00fdch \u0159et\u011bzc\u016f ropy. Ceny ropy nicm\u00e9n\u011b prudce klesly: spotov\u00e9 kontrakty na ropu Brent a WTI ztratily b\u011bhem dne p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 5 % a pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e1 cena ropy Brent pro rok 2026 odvozen\u00e1 z futures kontrakt\u016f klesla na 86 USD\/barel, co\u017e je v\u00fdrazn\u011b m\u00e9n\u011b ne\u017e na\u0161e progn\u00f3za 100 USD\/barel. Zachov\u00e1v\u00e1me si n\u00e1\u0161 v\u00fdhled. Z\u00e1soby jsou ji\u017e nyn\u00ed extr\u00e9mn\u011b napjat\u00e9 a nad\u00e1le klesaj\u00ed a na\u0161e rozvahy ukazuj\u00ed na m\u00edrn\u00fd deficit ve t\u0159et\u00edm \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed roku 2026 \u2013 co\u017e je v rozporu s rozsahem sou\u010dasn\u00e9ho poklesu cen.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em><span dir=\"auto\">Toto je 16. t\u00fdden od za\u010d\u00e1tku \u00edr\u00e1nsko-ir\u00e1ck\u00e9 v\u00e1lky. M\u00e1me k dispozici data o z\u00e1sob\u00e1ch za 14 z t\u011bchto t\u00fddn\u016f, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e nejnov\u011bj\u0161\u00ed data pokr\u00fdvaj\u00ed t\u00fdden kon\u010d\u00edc\u00ed 5. \u010dervna (obr\u00e1zek 1). S p\u0159ihl\u00e9dnut\u00edm k zpo\u017ed\u011bn\u00edm p\u0159epravy \u2013 obvykle dva a\u017e t\u0159i t\u00fddny u z\u00e1silek z oblasti Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu v d\u00e9lce dva a\u017e t\u0159i t\u00fddny, na z\u00e1klad\u011b obchodn\u00edch vzorc\u016f z p\u0159edchoz\u00edho roku \u2013 a s ohledem na sez\u00f3nnost p\u0159ed pandemi\u00ed (pr\u016fm\u011br z let 2017\u20132019) vedlo prvn\u00edch 11 t\u00fddn\u016f konfliktu ke kumulativn\u00edmu poklesu celkov\u00fdch glob\u00e1ln\u00edch z\u00e1sob ropy o 352 milion\u016f funt\u00ed, jak vypl\u00fdv\u00e1 z na\u0161eho t\u00fddenn\u00edho ukazatele celkov\u00fdch glob\u00e1ln\u00edch z\u00e1sob ropy (obr\u00e1zek 2).<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/files.zhedge.com\/cdn-cgi\/image\/width=1080,quality=75,format=auto\/https:\/\/assets.zerohedge.com\/s3fs-public\/inline-images\/2026-06-16_06-48-16.png\" alt=\"\" \/><\/figure>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em><span dir=\"auto\">\u00daprava kumulativn\u00edho sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed z\u00e1sob p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b o 4,6 milionu dolar\u016f\/den pozorovan\u00e9ho b\u011bhem tohoto obdob\u00ed s vyu\u017eit\u00edm historick\u00e9 bety mezi zm\u011bnami z\u00e1sob a nerovnov\u00e1hou na trhu vede k sez\u00f3nn\u011b o\u010di\u0161t\u011bn\u00e9mu deficitu ve v\u00fd\u0161i p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 7,3 milionu dolar\u016f\/den. To je v kontrastu s na\u0161\u00edm sez\u00f3nn\u011b neo\u010di\u0161t\u011bn\u00fdm odhadovan\u00fdm deficitem ve v\u00fd\u0161i 6,6 milionu dolar\u016f\/den za druh\u00e9 \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed roku 2026. Vzhledem k tomu, \u017ee ve druh\u00e9m \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed se obvykle zaznamen\u00e1v\u00e1 mal\u00fd p\u0159ebytek, jsou dosavadn\u00ed v\u00fdsledky do zna\u010dn\u00e9 m\u00edry v souladu s na\u0161imi odhady rozvahy.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em><span dir=\"auto\">\u010cast\u00fdm protiargumentem k na\u0161emu hodnocen\u00ed je, \u017ee v\u00fdznamn\u00e1 \u010d\u00e1st ned\u00e1vn\u00e9ho poklesu z\u00e1sob je zp\u016fsobena \u010derp\u00e1n\u00edm ze strategick\u00fdch rezerv, \u010d\u00edm\u017e se omezuje dopad na ceny (obr\u00e1zek 3). Nam\u00edt\u00e1me, \u017ee celkov\u00e9 z\u00e1soby ropy v USA \u2013 upraven\u00e9 o dlouhodob\u00e9 sez\u00f3nn\u00ed v\u00fdkyvy \u2013 byly k 5. \u010dervnu o 7 milion\u016f barel\u016f pod minimem z po\u010d\u00e1tku roku 2022 a za posledn\u00ed \u010dty\u0159i t\u00fddny klesaly t\u00fddenn\u00edm tempem 11 milion\u016f barel\u016f (obr\u00e1zek 4). I kdyby se situace v \u00fa\u017ein\u011b do konce m\u011bs\u00edce normalizovala, o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1me, \u017ee tento klesaj\u00edc\u00ed trend bude pokra\u010dovat minim\u00e1ln\u011b do \u010dervence. Nav\u00edc na rozd\u00edl od roku 2022 jsou sou\u010dasn\u00e9 \u00faniky ze strategick\u00fdch rezerv USA strukturov\u00e1ny sp\u00ed\u0161e jako p\u016fj\u010dky ne\u017e jako p\u0159\u00edm\u00e9 roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed dod\u00e1vek.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/files.zhedge.com\/cdn-cgi\/image\/width=1080,quality=75,format=auto\/https:\/\/assets.zerohedge.com\/s3fs-public\/inline-images\/2026-06-16_06-48-32.png\" alt=\"\" \/><\/figure>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em><span dir=\"auto\">To vyvol\u00e1v\u00e1 kl\u00ed\u010dovou ot\u00e1zku: Pro\u010d by ceny nem\u011bly b\u00fdt v\u00fdrazn\u011b vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed, kdy\u017e jsou z\u00e1soby ekonomiky na za\u010d\u00e1tku vrcholn\u00e9 popt\u00e1vky na historicky n\u00edzk\u00e9 \u00farovni a impuls ekonomick\u00e9 popt\u00e1vky je siln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e od roku 2022? P\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 60 % popt\u00e1vky po rop\u011b souvis\u00ed s v\u00fdrobou a p\u0159epravou zbo\u017e\u00ed. I kdy\u017e se postupn\u00e9 p\u0159ibl\u00ed\u017een\u00ed k cen\u011b 80 dolar\u016f za barel ropy Brent do konce roku 2027 jev\u00ed jako pravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9, kr\u00e1tkodob\u00e1 cenov\u00e1 rizika pova\u017eujeme sp\u00ed\u0161e za propadl\u00e1.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><span dir=\"auto\">Kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e9 ud\u00e1losti ze v\u010derej\u0161\u00edho ve\u010dera (s laskav\u00fdm svolen\u00edm agentury Bloomberg):<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><span dir=\"auto\">R\u00e1mcov\u00e1 dohoda mezi USA a \u00cdr\u00e1nem<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><em><span dir=\"auto\">USA a \u00cdr\u00e1n se v p\u00e1tek ve \u0160v\u00fdcarsku chystaj\u00ed ofici\u00e1ln\u011b podepsat p\u0159edb\u011b\u017enou m\u00edrovou dohodu. Tato \u010dtrn\u00e1ctibodov\u00e1 dohoda m\u00e1 prodlou\u017eit p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed o dva m\u011bs\u00edce a zah\u00e1jit jedn\u00e1n\u00ed o \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9m jadern\u00e9m programu.<\/span><\/em><\/li>\n<li><em><span dir=\"auto\">Zn\u011bn\u00ed dopisu o z\u00e1m\u011bru zat\u00edm nebylo zve\u0159ejn\u011bno, ale vysok\u00fd americk\u00fd p\u0159edstavitel uvedl, \u017ee by se tak mohlo st\u00e1t b\u011bhem p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edch dvou dn\u016f.<\/span><\/em><\/li>\n<li><em><span dir=\"auto\">\u00cdr\u00e1n tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee zru\u0161en\u00ed americk\u00e9 n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed blok\u00e1dy za\u010dalo a vstoupilo do f\u00e1ze implementace, uvedl n\u00e1m\u011bstek ministra zahrani\u010d\u00ed Majid Tacht-Ravanchi.<\/span><\/em><\/li>\n<li><em><span dir=\"auto\">Podle dohody \u00cdr\u00e1n povol\u00ed voln\u00fd tranzit Hormuzsk\u00fdm pr\u016flivem po dobu 60 dn\u016f.<\/span><\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><span dir=\"auto\">Prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed Trumpovy administrativy<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><em><span dir=\"auto\">Prezident Trump prohl\u00e1sil, \u017ee USA nyn\u00ed v \u00cdr\u00e1nu jednaj\u00ed s \u201eracion\u00e1ln\u00edmi\u201c lidmi a sou\u010dasn\u00e9 \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 veden\u00ed ozna\u010dil za \u201ep\u0159\u00edjemn\u00e9\u201c.<\/span><\/em><\/li>\n<li><em><span dir=\"auto\">Trump prohl\u00e1sil, \u017ee \u00cdr\u00e1n by utrp\u011bl, pokud by se pokusil z\u00edskat jadernou zbra\u0148, a \u017ee \u00cdr\u00e1n jadernou zbra\u0148 ani nevyvine, ani nezakoup\u00ed.<\/span><\/em><\/li>\n<li><em><span dir=\"auto\">Trump uvedl, \u017ee dohoda s \u00cdr\u00e1nem by mohla platit, i kdyby Izrael za\u00fato\u010dil na Libanon, a\u010dkoliv \u201enebyl spokojen s t\u00edm, jak Izrael jednal s Libanonem a Hizball\u00e1hem\u201c.<\/span><\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><span dir=\"auto\">Nap\u011bt\u00ed mezi Izraelem a Libanonem<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><em><span dir=\"auto\">\u00cdr\u00e1nsk\u00fd ministr zahrani\u010d\u00ed Abb\u00e1s Arag\u010d\u010d\u00ed prohl\u00e1sil, \u017ee dohoda o ukon\u010den\u00ed konfliktu s USA by vy\u017eadovala sta\u017een\u00ed Izraele z Libanonu.<\/span><\/em><\/li>\n<li><em><span dir=\"auto\">\u00cdr\u00e1nsk\u00fd ministr zahrani\u010d\u00ed prohl\u00e1sil, \u017ee jak\u00e9koli setrv\u00e1n\u00ed izraelsk\u00fdch sil v ji\u017en\u00edm Libanonu nebo jak\u00e9koli \u00fatoky na zemi by p\u0159edstavovaly poru\u0161en\u00ed dohody mezi USA a \u00cdr\u00e1nem.<\/span><\/em><\/li>\n<li><em><span dir=\"auto\">Izrael\u0161t\u00ed vl\u00e1dn\u00ed p\u0159edstavitel\u00e9 v pond\u011bl\u00ed prohl\u00e1sili, \u017ee voj\u00e1ci v Libanonu z\u016fstanou, proto\u017ee \u201eTrumpova dohoda pro n\u00e1s nen\u00ed z\u00e1vazn\u00e1\u201c.<\/span><\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><span dir=\"auto\">Politick\u00e9 d\u016fsledky pro Netanjahua<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><em><span dir=\"auto\">Benjamin Netanjahu vsadil svou politickou budoucnost na vztah s Donaldem Trumpem, ale to se nyn\u00ed stalo p\u0159\u00edt\u011b\u017e\u00ed, proto\u017ee americk\u00fd prezident uzav\u0159el s \u00cdr\u00e1nem dohodu, proti kter\u00e9 se velk\u00e1 \u010d\u00e1st Izraele stav\u00ed.<\/span><\/em><\/li>\n<li><em><span dir=\"auto\">Netanjahu se p\u0159ipravuje na podzimn\u00ed volby a mus\u00ed se pot\u00fdkat s dohodou, kter\u00e1 ponech\u00e1 Isl\u00e1mskou republiku bez \u00fahony \u2013 co\u017e je pro Izraelce v\u0161ech sm\u011br\u016f ne\u00fanosn\u00e1 vyhl\u00eddka.<\/span><\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><span dir=\"auto\">Znovuotev\u0159en\u00ed Hormuzsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><em><span dir=\"auto\">Dva tankery spojen\u00e9 s \u00cdr\u00e1nem pluj\u00ed na v\u00fdchod Hormuzsk\u00fdm pr\u016flivem, a to je\u0161t\u011b p\u0159edt\u00edm, ne\u017e USA a \u00cdr\u00e1n v p\u00e1tek podep\u00ed\u0161\u00ed p\u0159edb\u011b\u017enou m\u00edrovou dohodu, kter\u00e1 by znovu otev\u0159ela vodn\u00ed cestu.<\/span><\/em><\/li>\n<li><em><span dir=\"auto\">Katar pl\u00e1nuje rychle zv\u00fd\u0161it produkci LNG, jakmile se znovu otev\u0159e Hormuzsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv, s c\u00edlem obnovit v\u011bt\u0161inu sv\u00e9 exportn\u00ed kapacity do dvou m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f.<\/span><\/em><\/li>\n<li><em><span dir=\"auto\">Spole\u010dnost QatarEnergy informovala z\u00e1kazn\u00edky, \u017ee o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1 zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed produkce na p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 50 % kapacity jeden m\u011bs\u00edc po obnoven\u00ed bezpe\u010dn\u00e9ho pr\u016fjezdu pr\u016flivem a na zhruba 80 % do dvou m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f.<\/span><\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">***<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><em><span dir=\"auto\">Od Tylera Durdena<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-8c57238 quelle dc-has-condition dc-condition-empty elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"8c57238\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n<h3 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\"><span style=\"font-size: 10pt;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/geopolitical\/trump-vance-virtually-sign-us-iran-deal-hormuz-fears-ease-energy-flows-remain-months\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\"><span dir=\"auto\">Zdroj<\/span><\/a><\/span><\/h3>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Shrnut\u00ed: \u00cdr\u00e1n: M\u00edrov\u00e1 dohoda vy\u017eaduje sta\u017een\u00ed Izraele z Libanonu Obavy z Hormuzsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu po prakticky&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":81266,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,107,406,40],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/108861"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=108861"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/108861\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/81266"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=108861"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=108861"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=108861"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}