{"id":108784,"date":"2026-06-16T06:09:18","date_gmt":"2026-06-16T04:09:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=108784"},"modified":"2026-06-16T06:09:18","modified_gmt":"2026-06-16T04:09:18","slug":"uriel-araujo-sach-mat-nebo-pat-valka-s-iranem-a-limity-americke-moci","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/06\/16\/uriel-araujo-sach-mat-nebo-pat-valka-s-iranem-a-limity-americke-moci\/","title":{"rendered":"Uriel Araujo: \u0160ach mat, nebo pat? V\u00e1lka s \u00cdr\u00e1nem a limity americk\u00e9 moci"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Vzhledem k tomu, \u017ee \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e1 krize m\u011bn\u00ed geopolitickou krajinu, Washington \u010del\u00ed rostouc\u00edmu strategick\u00e9mu, vojensk\u00e9mu a finan\u010dn\u00edmu tlaku. Nov\u00e9 anal\u00fdzy nazna\u010duj\u00ed, \u017ee doba nesporn\u00e9ho americk\u00e9ho prim\u00e1tu ji\u017e mo\u017en\u00e1 skon\u010dila. Skute\u010dnou ot\u00e1zkou je, zda se Amerika dok\u00e1\u017ee p\u0159izp\u016fsobit multipol\u00e1rn\u00edmu sv\u011btu.<\/strong><\/p>\n

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Doba nesporn\u00e9ho americk\u00e9ho prim\u00e1tu kon\u010d\u00ed: \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fd konflikt odhalil zranitelnosti, kter\u00e9 by se je\u0161t\u011b p\u0159ed n\u011bkolika lety zd\u00e1ly nemysliteln\u00e9. Hormuzsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv se tak stal symbolem m\u011bn\u00edc\u00edho se sv\u011bta a Teher\u00e1n demonstruje\u00a0<\/span>vliv<\/span><\/a>\u00a0nad jedn\u00edm z nejd\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00edch n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00edch uzlin na planet\u011b. V tomto nov\u00e9m kontextu spojenci zpochyb\u0148uj\u00ed priority Washingtonu, zat\u00edmco glob\u00e1ln\u00ed obchodn\u00ed trasy \u010del\u00ed rostouc\u00edm rizik\u016fm a z\u00e1klady americk\u00e9 dominance se evidentn\u011b podkop\u00e1vaj\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nejde ani o \u201eantiimperialistick\u00e9\u201c zbo\u017en\u00e9 p\u0159\u00e1n\u00ed, ani o americk\u00fd alarmismus: p\u0159esn\u011b to uzn\u00e1vaj\u00ed dv\u011b ned\u00e1vn\u00e9 anal\u00fdzy americk\u00e9ho zahrani\u010dn\u011bpolitick\u00e9ho establishmentu. Isaac Kardon (vedouc\u00ed pracovn\u00edk Carnegieho nadace pro mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed m\u00edr) v \u010dl\u00e1nku pro Foreign Affairs\u00a0<\/span>tvrd\u00ed<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, \u017ee USA fakticky ztratily to, co politolog Barry Posen kdysi nazval \u201evelen\u00edm nad obecn\u00fdm majetkem\u201c. Po cel\u00e1 desetilet\u00ed se o americk\u00e9m n\u00e1mo\u0159nictvu \u0159\u00edkalo, \u017ee zaru\u010duje svobodu plavby a podporuje globalizaci. Dnes v\u0161ak v kontextu v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00fdch konflikt\u016f levn\u00e9 drony, rakety a dal\u0161\u00ed faktory tuto misi st\u00e1le v\u00edce zt\u011b\u017euj\u00ed. H\u00fat\u00edov\u00e9 v Rud\u00e9m mo\u0159i, \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fd vliv v Hormuzsk\u00e9 oblasti a \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 protin\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed kapacity v okol\u00ed Tchaj-wanu ukazuj\u00ed, \u017ee asymetri\u010dt\u00ed akt\u00e9\u0159i mohou zpochybnit n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed nadvl\u00e1du za zlomek americk\u00fdch n\u00e1klad\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n

Hal Brands zase dosp\u00edv\u00e1 k podobn\u00e9mu z\u00e1v\u011bru z jin\u00e9ho \u00fahlu pohledu. V \u010dl\u00e1nku pro Foreign Policy popisuje\u00a0<\/span>Pentagon<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, kter\u00fd je po letech\u00a0<\/span>p\u0159et\u00ed\u017een\u00ed<\/span><\/a>\u00a0prakticky \u201evy\u017ed\u00edman\u00fd\u201c . \u00cdr\u00e1nsk\u00e1 v\u00e1lka ji\u017e\u00a0<\/span>vy\u010derpala<\/span><\/a>\u00a0z\u00e1soby raket Patriot, st\u00edhac\u00edch raket THAAD, Tomahawk\u016f a dal\u0161\u00ed kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e9 munice a z\u00e1rove\u0148 p\u0159esm\u011brovala prost\u0159edky z Asie na Bl\u00edzk\u00fd v\u00fdchod. Washington st\u00e1le prok\u00e1zal p\u016fsobiv\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 schopnosti, ale Brands\u016fv argument je dostate\u010dn\u011b jednoduch\u00fd: taktick\u00fd \u00fasp\u011bch se nutn\u011b neprom\u00edt\u00e1 do strategick\u00e9 v\u00fdhody.<\/span><\/p>\n

Takov\u00e9 obavy ve skute\u010dnosti nejsou nov\u00e9. \u010clov\u011bk si m\u016f\u017ee vzpomenout, \u017ee varov\u00e1n\u00ed p\u0159ed p\u0159et\u00ed\u017een\u00edm americk\u00e9ho n\u00e1mo\u0159nictva a klesaj\u00edc\u00ed n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed nadvl\u00e1dou\u00a0<\/span>koluj\u00ed<\/span><\/a>\u00a0ji\u017e l\u00e9ta. Kardon\u016fv argument spo\u010d\u00edv\u00e1 v tom, \u017ee struktur\u00e1ln\u00ed podm\u00ednky, kter\u00e9 kdysi umo\u017e\u0148ovaly americkou n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed dominanci, ji\u017e nemus\u00ed existovat: \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e1 lo\u010fa\u0159sk\u00e1 kapacita, kter\u00e1 je \u00fadajn\u011b v\u00edce ne\u017e\u00a0<\/span>200kr\u00e1t v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed<\/span><\/a>\u00a0ne\u017e americk\u00e1 (i kdy\u017e to m\u016f\u017ee zn\u00edt neuv\u011b\u0159iteln\u011b), odr\u00e1\u017e\u00ed \u0161ir\u0161\u00ed pr\u016fmyslovou nerovnov\u00e1hu, kterou samotn\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 v\u00fddaje nedok\u00e1\u017eou vy\u0159e\u0161it.<\/span><\/p>\n

Vojensk\u00e1 s\u00edla je v ka\u017ed\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b jen \u010d\u00e1st\u00ed p\u0159\u00edb\u011bhu. Eroze americk\u00e9\u00a0<\/span>m\u011bkk\u00e9 s\u00edly<\/span><\/a>\u00a0je mo\u017en\u00e1 je\u0161t\u011b p\u016fsobiv\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, proto\u017ee si ji z velk\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1sti zp\u016fsobili sami.\u00a0<\/span>Zru\u0161en\u00ed USAID<\/span><\/a>\u00a0a \u0161krty v rozvojov\u00fdch a kulturn\u00edch programech oslabily schopnost Washingtonu utv\u00e1\u0159et glob\u00e1ln\u00ed narativy. Joseph Nye, kter\u00fd zavedl term\u00edn \u201em\u011bkk\u00e1 s\u00edla\u201c, tak\u00e9 zd\u016fraz\u0148uje, do jak\u00e9 m\u00edry Trumpova politika po\u0161kodila\u00a0<\/span>glob\u00e1ln\u00ed<\/span><\/a>\u00a0atraktivitu Ameriky.<\/span><\/p>\n

Probl\u00e9m jde nad r\u00e1mec program\u016f pomoci. Konflikty mezi Izraelem, Gazou, Libanonem a \u00cdr\u00e1nem vyvolaly to, co jsem\u00a0<\/span>nazval<\/span><\/a>\u00a0\u201ek\u0159es\u0165anskou ot\u00e1zkou\u201c: \u00fatoky postihuj\u00edc\u00ed k\u0159es\u0165ansk\u00e9 komunity v Levant\u011b v kombinaci s americkou podporou izraelsk\u00fdch vojensk\u00fdch kampan\u00ed drasticky po\u0161kodily vn\u00edm\u00e1n\u00ed Washingtonu i Tel Avivu. Jakmile je jednou ztracena m\u011bkk\u00e1 s\u00edla, je velmi obt\u00ed\u017en\u00e9 ji obnovit.<\/span><\/p>\n

A\u0165 je to jakkoli, je pravda, \u017ee USA\u00a0<\/span>z\u016fst\u00e1vaj\u00ed<\/span><\/a>\u00a0nejsiln\u011bj\u0161\u00edm vojensk\u00fdm akt\u00e9rem na sv\u011bt\u011b. Jejich s\u00ed\u0165 spojenc\u016f je st\u00e1le bezkonkuren\u010dn\u00ed, zat\u00edmco jejich ponorkov\u00e1 flotila, stealth schopnosti a technologick\u00fd ekosyst\u00e9m poskytuj\u00ed zna\u010dn\u00e9 v\u00fdhody. Vojensk\u00e9 v\u00fddaje ro\u010dn\u011b p\u0159esahuj\u00ed 900 miliard dolar\u016f. Pokud jde o kulturn\u00ed vliv, samotn\u00fd Hollywood sice u\u017e tak\u00a0<\/span>upad\u00e1<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, ale americk\u00fd technologick\u00fd vliv na druhou stranu z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 obrovsk\u00fd.<\/span><\/p>\n

Finan\u010dn\u011b si dolar\u00a0<\/span>uchov\u00e1v\u00e1<\/span><\/a>\u00a0mimo\u0159\u00e1dnou s\u00edlu. Navzdory rostouc\u00edmu \u00fasil\u00ed o dedolarizaci z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 zhruba 58\u201360 % sv\u011btov\u00fdch rezerv denominov\u00e1no v dolarech a mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed obchod je na m\u011bn\u011b st\u00e1le siln\u011b z\u00e1visl\u00fd. \u201e\u00a0<\/span>Dolarov\u00e1 bomba \u201c z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 siln\u00e1. P\u0159\u00edstup k syst\u00e9mu SWIFT,\u00a0<\/span><\/a>sankce<\/span><\/a>\u00a0a finan\u010dn\u00ed omezen\u00ed nav\u00edc\u00a0i nad\u00e1le poskytuj\u00ed p\u00e1ku na soupe\u0159e i men\u0161\u00ed st\u00e1ty.<\/span><\/p>\n

P\u0159esto i zde je t\u011b\u017ek\u00e9 ignorovat klesaj\u00edc\u00ed tendenci. Zlato nyn\u00ed\u00a0v rezerv\u00e1ch centr\u00e1ln\u00edch bank\u00a0<\/span>p\u0159evy\u0161uje americk\u00e9 st\u00e1tn\u00ed dluhopisy, iniciativy BRICS\u00a0<\/span><\/a>roz\u0161i\u0159uj\u00ed<\/span><\/a>\u00a0alternativn\u00ed platebn\u00ed syst\u00e9my a \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fd syst\u00e9m CIPS\u00a0<\/span>nad\u00e1le roste<\/span><\/a>\u00a0. Jin\u00fdmi slovy, dolar z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 dominantn\u00ed, ale jeho exkluzivita postupn\u011b naru\u0161uje.<\/span><\/p>\n

Trumpova\u00a0<\/span>opakovan\u00e1\u00a0<\/span><\/a>ozn\u00e1men\u00ed<\/span><\/a>\u00a0o p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed\u00a0ilustruj\u00ed dal\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdzvu: jeho osobn\u00ed styl uzav\u00edr\u00e1n\u00ed dohod obvykle usiluje o rychl\u00e9 politick\u00e9 v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed a p\u0159\u00edzniv\u00e9 vyj\u00e1d\u0159en\u00ed. Dosavadn\u00ed implementace se v\u0161ak \u010dasto uk\u00e1zala jako chaotick\u00e1, s poru\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00edm pravidel a p\u0159etrv\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00ed nestabilitou. Nen\u00ed divu, \u017ee spojenci st\u00e1le v\u00edce zpochyb\u0148uj\u00ed spolehlivost Washingtonu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Skute\u010dnou ot\u00e1zkou tedy nen\u00ed, zda se americk\u00e1 supervelmoc nutn\u011b hrout\u00ed sama o sob\u011b. Jde o to, zda se Amerika dok\u00e1\u017ee tak\u0159\u00edkaj\u00edc p\u0159izp\u016fsobit. Nejhor\u0161\u00ed sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 by z pohledu Washingtonu znamenal odm\u00edtnut\u00ed p\u0159izp\u016fsoben\u00ed se multipolarit\u011b a z\u00e1rove\u0148 zdvojn\u00e1soben\u00ed jednostrann\u00fdch intervenc\u00ed, sankc\u00ed, celn\u00edch v\u00e1lek a vojensk\u00fdch dobrodru\u017estv\u00ed. Takov\u00e1 cesta by mohla spustit to, co Paul Kennedy slavn\u011b nazval\u00a0<\/span>imperi\u00e1ln\u00edm p\u0159et\u00ed\u017een\u00edm<\/span><\/a>\u00a0. Opakovan\u00e9 konflikty by d\u00e1le vy\u010derpaly z\u00e1soby, nafoukly deficity, odcizily spojence a podpo\u0159ily alternativn\u00ed ekonomick\u00e9 bloky.<\/span><\/p>\n

V\u00fdsledkem by pak byl, ne-li n\u00e1hl\u00fd kolaps v sov\u011btsk\u00e9m stylu, tak alespo\u0148 prodlou\u017een\u00fd relativn\u00ed \u00fapadek p\u0159ipom\u00ednaj\u00edc\u00ed Brit\u00e1nii po Suezsk\u00e9m v\u00e1lce, by\u0165 ve v\u011bt\u0161\u00edm m\u011b\u0159\u00edtku. V tomto sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159i by Peking mohl roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159it sv\u016fj vliv v \u010d\u00e1stech Asie, Afriky a glob\u00e1ln\u00edch dodavatelsk\u00fdch \u0159et\u011bzc\u00edch, zat\u00edmco Moskva by pos\u00edlila svou roli v Eurasii. St\u0159edn\u00ed mocnosti by se zajistily. Washington by sice mohl z\u016fstat velmi mocn\u00fd, ale u\u017e by nest\u00e1l za \u201eur\u010dov\u00e1n\u00edm agendy\u201c.<\/span><\/p>\n

Existuje v\u0161ak je\u0161t\u011b jedna mo\u017en\u00e1 cesta. Stanoven\u00ed priorit, pr\u016fmyslov\u00e1 obnova, selektivn\u00ed anga\u017eovanost, realistick\u00e9 sd\u00edlen\u00ed z\u00e1t\u011b\u017ee a uzn\u00e1n\u00ed, \u017ee unipol\u00e1rn\u00ed \u00e9ra skon\u010dila, by mohly v jist\u00e9m smyslu zachovat americkou s\u00edlu jako geopolitick\u00e9ho p\u00f3lu po cel\u00e1 desetilet\u00ed. Koneckonc\u016f, multipolarita se objevuje, a\u0165 se to Washingtonu l\u00edb\u00ed, nebo ne. Ot\u00e1zkou je, zda se USA nau\u010d\u00ed v r\u00e1mci n\u00ed efektivn\u011b fungovat.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u0160ach-mat proto nemus\u00ed b\u00fdt v tomto p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b tou nejlep\u0161\u00ed metaforou: sou\u010dasn\u00e1 americk\u00e1 pozice pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b vypad\u00e1 sp\u00ed\u0161e jako n\u00e1kladn\u00e1 patov\u00e1 situace. USA st\u00e1le disponuj\u00ed siln\u00fdmi kartami: vojenskou moc\u00ed, spojenectv\u00edmi, technologiemi, financemi a samotnou geografi\u00ed. \u00cdr\u00e1nsk\u00e1 krize, eroze m\u011bkk\u00e9 s\u00edly a fragmentace n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00edho \u0159\u00e1du v\u0161ak nazna\u010duj\u00ed, \u017ee p\u0159inejmen\u0161\u00edm skon\u010dila doba nesporn\u00e9ho americk\u00e9ho prim\u00e1tu. Jinak to popsat nelze.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Uriel Araujo, PhD<\/a>. v oboru antropologie, je soci\u00e1ln\u00ed v\u011bdec specializuj\u00edc\u00ed se na etnick\u00e9 a n\u00e1bo\u017eensk\u00e9 konflikty s rozs\u00e1hl\u00fdm v\u00fdzkumem geopolitick\u00e9 dynamiky a kulturn\u00edch interakc\u00ed.<\/span><\/em><\/div>\n
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Vzhledem k tomu, \u017ee \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e1 krize m\u011bn\u00ed geopolitickou krajinu, Washington \u010del\u00ed rostouc\u00edmu strategick\u00e9mu, vojensk\u00e9mu a…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":108785,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,38,37,40],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/108784"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=108784"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/108784\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/108785"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=108784"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=108784"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=108784"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}