{"id":108768,"date":"2026-06-16T00:21:31","date_gmt":"2026-06-15T22:21:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=108768"},"modified":"2026-06-15T14:15:40","modified_gmt":"2026-06-15T12:15:40","slug":"andrew-korybko-kdo-vyhral-treti-valku-v-perskem-zalivu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/06\/16\/andrew-korybko-kdo-vyhral-treti-valku-v-perskem-zalivu\/","title":{"rendered":"Andrew Korybko: Kdo vyhr\u00e1l t\u0159et\u00ed v\u00e1lku v Persk\u00e9m z\u00e1livu?"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

\u00cdr\u00e1n se chyst\u00e1 postupn\u011b se vr\u00e1tit k z\u00e1padn\u00edmu \u0159\u00e1du veden\u00e9mu USA v ur\u010dit\u00fdch mez\u00edch, p\u0159esn\u011b tak, jak si jeho um\u00edrn\u011bn\u00e1 frakce dlouho p\u0159\u00e1la, jeho nekompromisn\u00ed frakce \u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u011b zachovala ozbrojen\u00e9 s\u00edly a jejich raketov\u00fd arzen\u00e1l, zat\u00edmco Izrael ve sv\u00e9 dosud nej\u00fa\u017easn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed por\u00e1\u017ece nedos\u00e1hl ani jednoho ze sv\u00fdch c\u00edl\u016f.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

\u00cdr\u00e1n a USA pl\u00e1nuj\u00ed v p\u00e1tek ve \u0160v\u00fdcarsku podepsat memorandum o porozum\u011bn\u00ed (MoU)\u00a0<\/span>inspirovan\u00e9 Zarifem\u00a0<\/span><\/a>o ukon\u010den\u00ed t\u0159et\u00ed v\u00e1lky v Persk\u00e9m z\u00e1livu. P\u0159esn\u00e9 podrobnosti zat\u00edm nejsou zn\u00e1my a\u00a0<\/span>den\u00edk Fortune\u00a0<\/span><\/a>uvedl, \u017ee existuj\u00ed nejm\u00e9n\u011b t\u0159i konkuren\u010dn\u00ed texty, ale v\u0161echny \u201eobsahuj\u00ed podobn\u00e9 prvky t\u00fdkaj\u00edc\u00ed se znovuotev\u0159en\u00ed \u017eivotn\u011b d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 vodn\u00ed cesty Hormuzsk\u00fdm pr\u016flivem, zm\u00edrn\u011bn\u00ed sankc\u00ed v\u016f\u010di \u00cdr\u00e1nu a otev\u0159en\u00ed dve\u0159\u00ed dlouhodob\u011bj\u0161\u00edm jedn\u00e1n\u00edm o jeho jadern\u00e9m programu\u201c. To u\u017e sta\u010d\u00ed k vyvozen\u00ed n\u011bkolika velmi d\u016fle\u017eit\u00fdch z\u00e1v\u011br\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pro za\u010d\u00e1tek by znovuotev\u0159en\u00ed pr\u016flivu bez zaveden\u00ed \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9ho v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e9ho\u00a0<\/span>petrojuanov\u00e9ho m\u00fdtn\u00e9ho syst\u00e9mu\u00a0<\/span><\/a>p\u0159edstavovalo v\u00fdznamn\u00fd \u00fastupek ze strany Isl\u00e1msk\u00e9 republiky, jej\u00ed\u017e medi\u00e1ln\u00ed z\u00e1stupci\u00a0<\/span>oslavovali\u00a0<\/span><\/a>tento model jako historick\u00fd miln\u00edk multipol\u00e1rn\u00edho programu. Tot\u00e9\u017e plat\u00ed pro obnoven\u00ed jedn\u00e1n\u00ed o politicky citliv\u00e9m jadern\u00e9m programu. Zm\u00edrn\u011bn\u00ed sankc\u00ed v\u00fdm\u011bnou by v\u0161ak pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b st\u00e1lo za to, soud\u011b podle tohoto odhadu\u00a0<\/span>hlubok\u00fdch\u00a0<\/span><\/a>ekonomicko-finan\u010dn\u00edch \u0161kod zp\u016fsoben\u00fdch (nedokonalou) blok\u00e1dou ze strany USA.<\/span><\/p>\n

Na toto t\u00e9ma zde koncem b\u0159ezna\u00a0<\/span><\/a>bylo vysv\u011btleno,\u00a0<\/span>\u017ee \u201eUSA prohraj\u00ed t\u0159et\u00ed v\u00e1lku v Persk\u00e9m z\u00e1livu, pokud se \u010c\u00edna bude st\u00e1le moci spol\u00e9hat na \u00cdr\u00e1n jako na spolehliv\u00e9ho dodavatele levn\u00e9 energie a z\u00e1rove\u0148 prom\u011bnit j\u00fcan v glob\u00e1ln\u00ed rezervn\u00ed m\u011bnu, kter\u00e1 bude v\u00fdzvou pro petrodolar\u201c, tak\u017ee z pohledu USA je nezbytn\u00e9 zabr\u00e1nit ob\u011bma t\u011bmto situac\u00edm. Vzhledem k \u00fadajn\u00e9mu vy\u0159azen\u00ed petroj\u00fcanu z hry z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fd v\u00fdvoz ropy z\u00e1visl\u00fd na \u010c\u00edn\u011b, ale zm\u00edrn\u011bn\u00ed sankc\u00ed by mohlo pomoci postupn\u011b p\u0159esm\u011brovat jeho prodej (\u00a0<\/span>nap\u0159\u00edklad do Indie\u00a0<\/span><\/a>), ani\u017e by to naru\u0161ilo trh.<\/span><\/p>\n

Stejn\u011b tak, pokud jsou pravdiv\u00e9\u00a0<\/span>zpr\u00e1vy\u00a0<\/span><\/a>o fondu pro rekonstrukci \u00cdr\u00e1nu ve v\u00fd\u0161i 300 miliard dolar\u016f (i kdy\u017e je kone\u010dn\u00e1 \u010d\u00e1stka mnohem ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed, ale st\u00e1le se jedn\u00e1 o des\u00edtky miliard dolar\u016f), pak by investice USA a zem\u00ed Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu do \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9ho energetick\u00e9ho pr\u016fmyslu mohly v\u00e9st ke kontrole jeho exportu. V lednu bylo zhodnoceno, \u017ee \u201e\u00a0<\/span>USA cht\u011bj\u00ed v \u00cdr\u00e1nu replikovat venezuelsk\u00fd model\u00a0<\/span><\/a>\u201c, co\u017e by v tomto sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159i bylo na cest\u011b k realizaci. V\u00fdsledn\u00e1 vz\u00e1jemn\u00e1 z\u00e1vislost by mohla\u00a0<\/span>pos\u00edlit kolektivn\u00ed bezpe\u010dnost\u00a0<\/span><\/a>a\u00a0<\/span>usnadnit sta\u017een\u00ed USA z regionu\u00a0<\/span><\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00cdr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 um\u00edrn\u011bn\u00e9 (\u201ereformn\u00ed\u201c) a tvrd\u00e9 (\u201eprincipalistick\u00e9\u201c) frakce by tak dos\u00e1hly n\u011bkter\u00fdch sv\u00fdch c\u00edl\u016f, prvn\u00edho s ohledem na zm\u00edrn\u011bn\u00ed sankc\u00ed a druh\u00e9ho s ohledem na zachov\u00e1n\u00ed (pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b oslaben\u00fdch) ozbrojen\u00fdch sil zem\u011b a tak\u00e9 jej\u00edho raketov\u00e9ho arzen\u00e1lu, nemluv\u011b o jej\u00edm politick\u00e9m syst\u00e9mu. Nicm\u00e9n\u011b rovnov\u00e1ha frakc\u00ed by se posunula ve prosp\u011bch um\u00edrn\u011bn\u00fdch, proto\u017ee USA by nepodepsaly memorandum o porozum\u011bn\u00ed, pokud by um\u00edrn\u011bn\u00ed nedok\u00e1zali ovl\u00e1dat \u201edareb\u00e1ck\u00e9\u201c zast\u00e1nce tvrd\u00e9 linie, kte\u0159\u00ed by potenci\u00e1ln\u011b mohli v\u00e1lku znovu rozn\u00edtit.<\/span><\/p>\n

Lze tedy usoudit, \u017ee um\u00edrn\u011bn\u00ed v mocensk\u00e9m boji \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9ho hlubok\u00e9ho st\u00e1tu porazili zast\u00e1nce tvrd\u00e9 linie, ale to bylo zp\u016fsobeno t\u00edm, \u017ee USA a Izrael zabily des\u00edtky vysoce postaven\u00fdch p\u0159edstavitel\u016f tvrd\u00e9 linie, na\u010de\u017e byly jejich p\u0159\u00edslu\u0161n\u00e9 instituce (zejm\u00e9na IRGC) oslabeny a nakonec zkroceny um\u00edrn\u011bn\u00fdmi. Jist\u011b, \u201edareb\u00e1\u010dt\u00ed\u201c zast\u00e1nci tvrd\u00e9 linie \u2013 bez ohledu na jejich vztah k IRGC \u2013 by st\u00e1le mohli memorandum o porozum\u011bn\u00ed sabotovat, ale Trump 2.0 se c\u00edt\u00ed dostate\u010dn\u011b pohodln\u011b, aby to neud\u011blali, jinak by k podpisu nedo\u0161lo.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nast\u00e1v\u00e1 nov\u00e1 region\u00e1ln\u00ed \u00e9ra, v n\u00ed\u017e by t\u0159et\u00ed v\u00e1lka v Persk\u00e9m z\u00e1livu mohla v\u00e9st k postupn\u00e9mu op\u011btovn\u00e9mu za\u010dlen\u011bn\u00ed \u00cdr\u00e1nu do z\u00e1padn\u00edho \u0159\u00e1du veden\u00e9ho USA, by\u0165 v ur\u010dit\u00fdch mez\u00edch, co\u017e polo\u017e\u00ed z\u00e1klady pro lep\u0161\u00ed vztahy s jeho sousedy v Persk\u00e9m z\u00e1livu. V tomto sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159i by Izrael prohr\u00e1l, proto\u017ee by ji\u017e nemohl \u00cdr\u00e1n a Persk\u00fd z\u00e1liv rozd\u011blovat a panovat,\u00a0<\/span>a USA by ho nepodporovaly,\u00a0<\/span><\/a>pokud by Izrael obnovil nep\u0159\u00e1telstv\u00ed s \u00cdr\u00e1nem kv\u016fli ned\u00e1vn\u00e9mu o\u017eiven\u00ed\u00a0<\/span>potenci\u00e1ln\u011b nesmi\u0159iteln\u00e9ho rozkolu mezi Trumpem a Bibim . Izrael je proto\u00a0<\/span><\/a>nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edm\u00a0<\/a>pora\u017een\u00fdm\u00a0<\/a><\/span>v\u00e1lky\u00a0<\/span>.<\/span><\/p>\n

Andrew Korybko, PhD<\/a><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u00cdr\u00e1n se chyst\u00e1 postupn\u011b se vr\u00e1tit k z\u00e1padn\u00edmu \u0159\u00e1du veden\u00e9mu USA v ur\u010dit\u00fdch mez\u00edch, p\u0159esn\u011b…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":108769,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,38,107,452,40],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/108768"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=108768"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/108768\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/108769"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=108768"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=108768"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=108768"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}