{"id":108536,"date":"2026-06-12T00:23:44","date_gmt":"2026-06-11T22:23:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=108536"},"modified":"2026-06-11T15:41:15","modified_gmt":"2026-06-11T13:41:15","slug":"iranska-valka-a-budoucnost-americkeho-imperia","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/06\/12\/iranska-valka-a-budoucnost-americkeho-imperia\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00cdr\u00e1nsk\u00e1 v\u00e1lka a budoucnost americk\u00e9ho imp\u00e9ria"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"fb-root\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-1fb4c2c elementor-widget elementor-widget-theme-post-content\" data-id=\"1fb4c2c\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"theme-post-content.default\">\n<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">V\u00e1lky se \u010dasto zvrtnou ne\u010dekan\u00fdm zp\u016fsobem. I dob\u0159e napl\u00e1novan\u00e9 operace mohou b\u00fdt zma\u0159eny nep\u0159edv\u00eddan\u00fdmi ud\u00e1lostmi, selh\u00e1n\u00edm vybaven\u00ed, \u0161patn\u00fdm po\u010das\u00edm nebo sm\u016flou. Katastrofa, kter\u00e1 n\u00e1sledovala po rozhodnut\u00ed prezidenta Donalda Trumpa za\u00fato\u010dit na \u00cdr\u00e1n 28. \u00fanora, v\u0161ak nebyla p\u0159ekvapiv\u00e1. Proto\u017ee rizika kampan\u011b byla v pr\u016fb\u011bhu desetilet\u00ed des\u00edtkykr\u00e1t simulov\u00e1na ve v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00fdch hr\u00e1ch a cvi\u010den\u00edch rud\u00fdch t\u00fdm\u016f, byla dob\u0159e zn\u00e1m\u00e1 a z\u0159ejm\u00e1.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">V\u00fdsledek v\u00e1lky byl nicm\u00e9n\u011b hor\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e i ty nejpesimisti\u010dt\u011bj\u0161\u00ed p\u0159edpov\u011bdi. T\u0159i m\u011bs\u00edce po zah\u00e1jen\u00ed operace, kterou Trumpova administrativa nazvala \u201eexkurz\u00ed\u201c, se zd\u00e1 b\u00fdt po\u010d\u00e1te\u010dn\u00ed hodnocen\u00ed, \u017ee operace Epic Fury byla \u201e\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/asia-pacific\/three-months-is-trump-losing-iran-war-2026-05-23\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><span dir=\"auto\">taktick\u00fdm \u00fasp\u011bchem, ale strategick\u00fdm selh\u00e1n\u00edm<\/span><\/a><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0\u201c, p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 velkorys\u00e9. Koneckonc\u016f, ani strategick\u00fdch, ani taktick\u00fdch c\u00edl\u016f nebylo dosa\u017eeno. Spojen\u00fdm st\u00e1t\u016fm se nepoda\u0159ilo nahradit \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fd re\u017eim nov\u00fdmi, um\u00edrn\u011bn\u00fdmi v\u016fdci. Nepoda\u0159ilo se jim zmocnit se vysoce obohacen\u00e9ho uranu \u00cdr\u00e1nu ani zru\u0161it jeho jadern\u00fd program. Je\u0161t\u011b hor\u0161\u00ed je, \u017ee v\u011bt\u0161ina zpr\u00e1v nazna\u010duje, \u017ee si \u00cdr\u00e1n\u00a0udr\u017eel\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2026\/05\/12\/us\/politics\/iran-missiles-us-intelligence.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><span dir=\"auto\">velkou \u010d\u00e1st sv\u00e9ho vojensk\u00e9ho potenci\u00e1lu , v\u010detn\u011b p\u0159\u00edstupu k velk\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1sti sv\u00e9ho raketov\u00e9ho arzen\u00e1lu a dron\u016f. V\u00e1lka nakonec vytvo\u0159ila nov\u00fd, mu\u010div\u00fd probl\u00e9m. Hormuzsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv, kter\u00fd kdysi slou\u017eil jako trasa pro\u00a0<\/span><\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/www.congress.gov\/crs-product\/R45281\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><span dir=\"auto\">20 procent<\/span><\/a><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0sv\u011btov\u00e9 ropy a zkapaln\u011bn\u00e9ho zemn\u00edho plynu, z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 prakticky uzav\u0159en\u00fd.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Bez ohledu na to, jak v\u00e1lka skon\u010d\u00ed, budou n\u00e1klady na nejnov\u011bj\u0161\u00ed vojensk\u00e9 dobrodru\u017estv\u00ed USA na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b vysok\u00e9 a geopolitick\u00e9 d\u016fsledky nevratn\u00e9. P\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00ed generace americk\u00fdch v\u016fdc\u016f bude \u010delit drsn\u00e9 realit\u011b. Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty, kter\u00e9 po desetilet\u00ed \u010dinily rozhodnut\u00ed na z\u00e1klad\u011b toho, co si tv\u016frci politik mysleli, \u017ee by Amerika\u00a0<\/span><em><span dir=\"auto\">m\u011bla d\u011blat<\/span><\/em><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0, budou nuceny zv\u00e1\u017eit, co Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty\u00a0<\/span><em><span dir=\"auto\">mohou ud\u011blat<\/span><\/em><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0. Tato zm\u011bna bude m\u00edt v\u00fdznamn\u00e9 d\u016fsledky pro Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty, ale tak\u00e9 pro americk\u00e9 spojence, kte\u0159\u00ed se spol\u00e9hali na americk\u00e9 bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed z\u00e1ruky, a pro mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed spole\u010denstv\u00ed, kter\u00e9 je na Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1tech z\u00e1visl\u00e9 v poskytov\u00e1n\u00ed glob\u00e1ln\u00edch bezpe\u010dnostn\u00edch statk\u016f, jako je svoboda plavby.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Ne\u017e americk\u00e9 imp\u00e9rium definitivn\u011b zmiz\u00ed, bude to n\u011bjakou dobu trvat, ale od t\u00e9 chv\u00edle je sta\u017een\u00ed USA nevyhnuteln\u00e9. Za 20 let se na tento okam\u017eik bude sv\u011bt d\u00edvat jako na zlomov\u00fd bod: za\u010d\u00e1tek konce\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2026\/05\/03\/opinion\/iran-us-empire.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><span dir=\"auto\">americk\u00e9ho imp\u00e9ria.<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/middle-east\/trump-claims-victory-iran-emerges-bruised-powerful-with-leverage-over-hormuz-2026-04-08\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><span dir=\"auto\">Prezident Trump vyhl\u00e1sil v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed<\/span><\/a><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b\u00a0. Pro ka\u017ed\u00e9ho, kdo m\u00e1 zrak, se v\u0161ak jeho r\u016f\u017eov\u00e1 p\u0159edpov\u011b\u010f neshoduje s realitou. Nejz\u0159eteln\u011bj\u0161\u00edm d\u016fkazem selh\u00e1n\u00ed USA je\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.csmonitor.com\/USA\/Politics\/2026\/0505\/The-Strait-of-Hormuz-is-still-blocked.-What-s-the-US-military-doing-about-it\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><span dir=\"auto\">pokra\u010duj\u00edc\u00ed uzav\u00edr\u00e1n\u00ed<\/span><\/a><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0Hormuzsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu (kter\u00fd byl otev\u0159en\u00fd u\u017e p\u0159ed v\u00e1lkou), a to navzdory n\u011bkolika pokus\u016fm americk\u00e9ho n\u00e1mo\u0159nictva o obnoven\u00ed lodn\u00ed dopravy t\u00edmto \u00fazk\u00fdm pr\u016flivem. A\u010dkoli se v posledn\u00edch t\u00fddnech pr\u016flivem \u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u011b proplul mal\u00fd po\u010det tanker\u016f a n\u00e1kladn\u00edch lod\u00ed, drtiv\u00e1 v\u011bt\u0161ina lodn\u00ed dopravy z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 zastavena kv\u016fli bezpe\u010dnostn\u00edm obav\u00e1m majitel\u016f lod\u00ed, kapit\u00e1n\u016f a jejich pos\u00e1dek.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Krom\u011b Hormuzsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu je neschopnost Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f a Izraele zastavit \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 raketov\u00e9 a bezpilotn\u00ed \u00fatoky pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edm zklam\u00e1n\u00edm t\u00e9to v\u00e1lky. Ambici\u00f3zn\u00ed c\u00edle USA, jako je zm\u011bna re\u017eimu a demont\u00e1\u017e \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9ho jadern\u00e9ho programu, nebyly nikdy dosa\u017eiteln\u00e9 pouze vojenskou silou, ale zni\u010den\u00ed \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 schopnosti vyr\u00e1b\u011bt a odpalovat rakety a drony, kter\u00e9 by mohly b\u00fdt nam\u00ed\u0159eny proti region\u00e1ln\u00edm soused\u016fm, se zd\u00e1lo provediteln\u00e9. Ned\u00e1vn\u00e9 zpr\u00e1vy v\u0161ak nazna\u010duj\u00ed, \u017ee i tento c\u00edl se americk\u00e9 arm\u00e1d\u011b vyhnul; \u00cdr\u00e1n si z\u0159ejm\u011b ponech\u00e1v\u00e1 a\u017e 70 procent sv\u00fdch p\u0159edv\u00e1le\u010dn\u00fdch raket a odpalovac\u00edch pozic a tak\u00e9\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2026\/05\/12\/us\/politics\/iran-missiles-us-intelligence.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><span dir=\"auto\">p\u0159\u00edstup k 30 z 33 raketov\u00fdch pozic<\/span><\/a><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0. \u00cdr\u00e1nsk\u00e1 schopnost vyr\u00e1b\u011bt drony se tak\u00e9 zd\u00e1 b\u00fdt nedot\u010den\u00e1. To, \u017ee \u00cdr\u00e1n byl schopen udr\u017eet\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/yarotrof\/status\/2032721125252235552\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><span dir=\"auto\">konzistentn\u00ed kadenci st\u0159elby<\/span><\/a><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0po prvn\u00edch dnech v\u00e1lky , je dal\u0161\u00edm d\u016fkazem toho, \u017ee \u0161kody zp\u016fsoben\u00e9 americkou arm\u00e1dou byly o n\u011bco m\u00e9n\u011b ni\u010div\u00e9, ne\u017e nazna\u010dovaly Pentagon a B\u00edl\u00fd d\u016fm.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">D\u016fsledky v\u00e1lky jsou proto neradostn\u00e9. N\u00e1klady na vojensk\u00e9 ne\u00fasp\u011bchy jsou v\u0161ak zna\u010dn\u00e9 \u2013 a to nejen z finan\u010dn\u00edho hlediska.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Pentagon sd\u011blil Kongresu, \u017ee prvn\u00edch 40 dn\u00ed v\u00e1lky, kter\u00e9 vedly k p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed v dubnu,\u00a0st\u00e1lo\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/middle-east\/us-war-iran-has-cost-29-billion-pentagon-says-2026-05-12\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><span dir=\"auto\">29 miliard dolar\u016f , ale to je t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 jist\u011b v\u00fdrazn\u011b podhodnocen\u00e1 \u010d\u00e1stka. Ministerstvo obrany (DoD) se k tomuto odhadu nevyj\u00e1d\u0159ilo jasn\u011b, co v\u0161echno zahrnuje, ale p\u0159inejmen\u0161\u00edm nezohled\u0148uje masivn\u00ed\u00a0<\/span><\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnn.com\/2026\/04\/29\/politics\/us-iran-war-25-billion-cost-estimate-low\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><span dir=\"auto\">\u0161kody na americk\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 infrastruktu\u0159e<\/span><\/a><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0ani pln\u00e9 n\u00e1klady na v\u00fdm\u011bnu americk\u00fdch vojensk\u00fdch letadel a dal\u0161\u00edho vybaven\u00ed ztracen\u00e9ho v konfliktu. Celkov\u00e9 n\u00e1klady budou\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cbsnews.com\/news\/iran-war-cost-closer-50-billion-us-officials\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><span dir=\"auto\">pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b dvakr\u00e1t<\/span><\/a><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e p\u0159edb\u011b\u017en\u00fd odhad ministerstva obrany.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Podle nejnov\u011bj\u0161\u00edch odhad\u016f bylo nejm\u00e9n\u011b\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnn.com\/2026\/04\/29\/politics\/us-iran-war-25-billion-cost-estimate-low\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><span dir=\"auto\">16 americk\u00fdch vojensk\u00fdch za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed<\/span><\/a><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0v osmi zem\u00edch \u2013 v\u011bt\u0161ina americk\u00fdch vojensk\u00fdch z\u00e1kladen v regionu \u2013 v\u00e1\u017en\u011b po\u0161kozeno. Na mnoha z t\u011bchto m\u00edst bylo po\u0161kozen\u00ed tak rozs\u00e1hl\u00e9, \u017ee se za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed stala prakticky nepou\u017eiteln\u00fdmi pro vojensk\u00e9 operace. N\u00e1klady na p\u0159estavbu t\u011bchto z\u00e1kladen a zabezpe\u010den\u00ed infrastruktury v cel\u00e9m regionu pro p\u0159\u00edpad obnoven\u00ed konfliktu budou zna\u010dn\u00e9, ale celkov\u00e9 n\u00e1klady je obt\u00ed\u017en\u00e9 odhadnout, proto\u017ee americk\u00e1 vl\u00e1da\u00a0nad\u00e1le omezuje p\u0159\u00edstup k\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/livecoverage\/iran-war-news-2026\/card\/u-s-seeks-to-limit-access-to-iran-satellite-imagery-company-says-7LWYNUOEyVa8oQCb9214\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><span dir=\"auto\">ve\u0159ejn\u011b dostupn\u00fdm satelitn\u00edm dat\u016fm z regionu. \u00cdr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 raketov\u00e9 a dronov\u00e9 \u00fatoky tak\u00e9 \u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u011b zac\u00edlily des\u00edtky americk\u00fdch senzor\u016f a radarov\u00fdch za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed po cel\u00e9m Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b, v\u010detn\u011b t\u011bch, kter\u00e9 jsou kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e9 pro region\u00e1ln\u00ed protivzdu\u0161nou obranu a syst\u00e9my v\u010dasn\u00e9ho varov\u00e1n\u00ed. Po\u0161kozeno nebo zni\u010deno bylo tak\u00e9\u00a0<\/span><\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/www.militarytimes.com\/news\/pentagon-congress\/2026\/05\/22\/congressional-report-tallies-42-us-aircraft-lost-or-damaged-in-operation-epic-fury\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><span dir=\"auto\">42 vojensk\u00fdch letadel<\/span><\/a><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0, v\u010detn\u011b jednoho letounu AWACS E-3, \u010dty\u0159 st\u00edha\u010dek F-15 a sedmi tankovac\u00edch letadel. V\u00fdm\u011bna t\u011bchto aktiv si vy\u017e\u00e1d\u00e1 dodate\u010dn\u00e9 v\u00fddaje v \u0159\u00e1du des\u00edtek miliard dolar\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">N\u00e1klady na udr\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed dlouhodob\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 p\u0159ipravenosti je obt\u00ed\u017en\u00e9 kvantifikovat a rozhodn\u011b nejsou zahrnuty v odhadu Pentagonu, nicm\u00e9n\u011b by m\u011bly b\u00fdt zv\u00e1\u017eeny. Krom\u011b opot\u0159eben\u00ed vybaven\u00ed a person\u00e1lu zp\u016fsoben\u00e9ho v\u00e1lkou, ztr\u00e1ta letadel a platforem protivzdu\u0161n\u00e9 obrany, stejn\u011b jako vy\u010derp\u00e1n\u00ed americk\u00fdch z\u00e1sob raket a protivzdu\u0161n\u00fdch protiraketov\u00fdch st\u00edha\u010dek, zhor\u0161\u00ed p\u0159ipravenost USA na budouc\u00ed vojensk\u00e9 operace. Podle n\u011bkter\u00fdch odhad\u016f Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty spot\u0159ebovaly\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/national-security\/2026\/03\/27\/iran-war-tomahawk-missiles\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><span dir=\"auto\">1 000 raket Tomahawk<\/span><\/a><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0, t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 50 procent sv\u00fdch\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/national-security\/2026\/05\/21\/us-bears-brunt-israels-missile-defense-pentagon-assessments-show\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><span dir=\"auto\">z\u00e1sob syst\u00e9m\u016f Patriot a THAAD<\/span><\/a><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0a zna\u010dnou \u010d\u00e1st modern\u00edch zbran\u00ed pro vzd\u00e1lenou vzd\u00e1lenost, jako jsou rakety PRSM a JASSM.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Omezen\u00ed americk\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 s\u00edly zp\u016fsoben\u00e1 t\u011bmito \u00fazk\u00fdmi hrdly bude dalekos\u00e1hl\u00e9 a trval\u00e9. Ministr obrany Pete Hegseth na sly\u0161en\u00ed v Kongresu p\u0159ipustil, \u017ee dopln\u011bn\u00ed raket spot\u0159ebovan\u00fdch v \u00cdr\u00e1nu by\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.msn.com\/en-us\/news\/us\/hegseth-replacing-munition-stockpiles-used-in-iran-war-will-take-months-or-years\/ar-AA228jxK?gemSnapshotKey=GM311993AE-snapshot-4&amp;ocid=winp2fptaskbarhover\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><span dir=\"auto\">trvalo roky<\/span><\/a><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0. B\u011bhem t\u00e9to doby bude strategick\u00e1 flexibilita USA omezen\u00e1. Nap\u0159\u00edklad p\u0159edn\u00ed odborn\u00edci v sou\u010dasn\u00e9 dob\u011b odhaduj\u00ed, \u017ee americk\u00fd vojensk\u00fd arzen\u00e1l nesta\u010d\u00ed k podpo\u0159e\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/opinions\/2026\/05\/11\/us-china-militaries-assessed-by-cia-veteran-china-expert\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><span dir=\"auto\">obrany Tchaj-wanu<\/span><\/a><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0, kter\u00fd ameri\u010dt\u00ed vojen\u0161t\u00ed pl\u00e1nova\u010di dlouhodob\u011b pova\u017euj\u00ed za nouzovou situaci nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed priority. Je\u0161t\u011b up\u0159\u00edmn\u011bji \u0159e\u010deno, pokud by \u010c\u00edna z\u00edtra za\u00fato\u010dila na Tchaj-wan, Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty by mohly b\u00fdt nuceny ne\u010dinn\u011b p\u0159ihl\u00ed\u017eet. Tot\u00e9\u017e pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b plat\u00ed i v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b v\u011bt\u0161\u00edho konfliktu v Evrop\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Stejn\u011b z\u00e1va\u017en\u00e1 je skute\u010dnost, \u017ee probl\u00e9my, kter\u00fdm \u010del\u00ed oslaben\u00e1 americk\u00e1 arm\u00e1da, budou m\u00edt d\u016fsledky a ovlivn\u00ed \u00fasil\u00ed americk\u00fdch spojenc\u016f o znovuzbrojov\u00e1n\u00ed ve v\u0161ech regionech. Zat\u00edmco se na\u0161e z\u00e1soby dopl\u0148uj\u00ed, Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty mus\u00ed p\u0159esm\u011brovat v\u011bt\u0161inu sv\u00e9 zbrojn\u00ed v\u00fdroby na vlastn\u00ed arm\u00e1du, \u010d\u00edm\u017e se sn\u00ed\u017e\u00ed dod\u00e1vky dostupn\u00e9 k prodeji americk\u00fdm spojenc\u016fm a partner\u016fm, kte\u0159\u00ed sv\u00e9 pl\u00e1ny na znovuzbrojov\u00e1n\u00ed zalo\u017eili na takov\u00fdch n\u00e1kupech zbran\u00ed. Evrop\u0161t\u00ed \u010dlenov\u00e9 NATO ji\u017e sly\u0161\u00ed, \u017ee dod\u00e1vky nal\u00e9hav\u011b pot\u0159ebn\u00fdch raket a dal\u0161\u00edch zbran\u00ed jsou odlo\u017eeny na neur\u010dito. Spojenci v Asii obdr\u017eeli podobn\u00e1 varov\u00e1n\u00ed. Nap\u0159\u00edklad japonsk\u00e9 z\u00e1silky raket Tomahawk pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b doraz\u00ed se zpo\u017ed\u011bn\u00edm, stejn\u011b jako v\u011bt\u0161ina zbran\u00ed z ned\u00e1vn\u00fdch zbrojn\u00edch bal\u00ed\u010dk\u016f pro Tchaj-wan.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Pro mnoho z t\u011bchto spojenc\u016f jsou takov\u00e1 zpo\u017ed\u011bn\u00ed nep\u0159ijateln\u00e1. Nap\u0159\u00edklad v Evrop\u011b se hovo\u0159\u00ed o v\u011bt\u0161\u00edm zam\u011b\u0159en\u00ed na\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/cepa.org\/article\/european-cruise-missiles-on-the-way\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><span dir=\"auto\">dom\u00e1c\u00ed produkci<\/span><\/a><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0nebo o p\u0159esunu objedn\u00e1vek k jin\u00fdm dodavatel\u016fm, jako je Izrael, Turecko nebo Ji\u017en\u00ed Korea. V jist\u00e9m smyslu je hodnocen\u00ed spojenc\u016f, \u017ee Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty jsou nespolehliv\u00fdm partnerem, pozitivn\u00ed, proto\u017ee to zem\u011b, kter\u00e9 jsou na Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1tech dlouhodob\u011b z\u00e1visl\u00e9, rozhodn\u011b a definitivn\u011b tla\u010d\u00ed k nez\u00e1vislosti a sob\u011bsta\u010dnosti. Pro Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty to v\u0161ak bude dramatick\u00fd posun, kter\u00fd p\u0159isp\u011bje k postupn\u00e9mu oslabov\u00e1n\u00ed jejich pozice glob\u00e1ln\u00ed vojensk\u00e9 mocnosti.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Krom\u011b vojensk\u00fdch n\u00e1klad\u016f existuj\u00ed\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2026\/05\/08\/opinion\/hegseth-war-cost.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><span dir=\"auto\">ekonomick\u00e9 \u0161kody zp\u016fsoben\u00e9 konfliktem<\/span><\/a><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0, kter\u00e9 sice nespadaj\u00ed do kompetence Pentagonu, ale jsou skute\u010dn\u00e9 a z\u00e1va\u017en\u00e9. Ekonomick\u00e9 ztr\u00e1ty vypl\u00fdvaj\u00edc\u00ed z naru\u0161en\u00ed obchodu budou pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b masivn\u00ed a projev\u00ed se jako zpomalen\u00fd hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00fd r\u016fst a ztr\u00e1ta firemn\u00edch zisk\u016f a n\u00e1rodn\u00edch ekonomick\u00fdch v\u00fdnos\u016f. Pro Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty je dopad vy\u0161\u0161\u00edch cen ropy a inflace na americk\u00e9 spot\u0159ebitele velk\u00fdm probl\u00e9mem. A samoz\u0159ejm\u011b existuj\u00ed i \u200b\u200bn\u00e1klady u\u0161l\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitosti \u2013 tedy investice americk\u00e9 vl\u00e1dy do dom\u00e1c\u00edch program\u016f, kter\u00e9 jsou nyn\u00ed odkl\u00e1d\u00e1ny nebo zcela ru\u0161eny, aby se financovaly zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 rozpo\u010dty.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Z\u00e1v\u011br zn\u00ed: V\u00e1lka Ameri\u010dany nezv\u00fd\u0161ila bezpe\u010d\u00ed, ale budou za ni platit je\u0161t\u011b po cel\u00e1 desetilet\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Americk\u00e9 selh\u00e1n\u00ed v \u00cdr\u00e1nu m\u00e1 bezprecedentn\u00ed dopad na geopolitick\u00e9 postaven\u00ed Ameriky, vojensk\u00e9 chyby sp\u00e1chan\u00e9 v \u00cdr\u00e1nu v\u0161ak nejsou\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.rand.org\/pubs\/research_reports\/RR3062.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><span dir=\"auto\">specifick\u00e9 pouze<\/span><\/a><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0pro Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty. Stejn\u011b jako p\u0159edchoz\u00ed ne\u0161\u0165astn\u00e9 americk\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 kampan\u011b, i \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e1 v\u00e1lka za\u010dala s v\u00e1gn\u00edmi, \u0161irok\u00fdmi c\u00edli, kter\u00fdch by nikdy nebylo mo\u017en\u00e9 dos\u00e1hnout pouze vojenskou silou. Stejn\u011b jako v p\u0159edchoz\u00edch v\u00e1lk\u00e1ch byly s\u00e1zky pro Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty podstatn\u011b ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e pro jejich protivn\u00edka \u2013 co\u017e USA odsoudilo k z\u00e1hub\u011b od sam\u00e9ho za\u010d\u00e1tku. Pro \u00cdr\u00e1n je sou\u010dasn\u00fd konflikt\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookings.edu\/articles\/has-the-us-lost-the-iran-war\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><span dir=\"auto\">ot\u00e1zkou existen\u010dn\u00edho v\u00fdznamu<\/span><\/a><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0a jeho ochota sn\u00e1\u0161et \u00fatrapy se zd\u00e1 b\u00fdt bezmezn\u00e1, zat\u00edmco pro Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty jsou z\u00e1jmy v s\u00e1zce p\u0159inejlep\u0161\u00edm omezen\u00e9. \u00cdr\u00e1n se nikdy nep\u0159ibl\u00ed\u017eil k tomu, aby vlastnil jadern\u00e9 zbran\u011b, a navzdory sv\u00e9 agresivn\u00ed r\u00e9torice Teher\u00e1n nep\u0159edstavoval \u017e\u00e1dnou skute\u010dnou hrozbu pro n\u00e1rodn\u00ed bezpe\u010dnost USA. Ameri\u010dt\u00ed politi\u010dt\u00ed a vojen\u0161t\u00ed v\u016fdci se nakonec op\u011bt dopustili chyby, kdy\u017e v\u011b\u0159ili, \u017ee jejich c\u00edl\u016f v \u00cdr\u00e1nu lze\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.economist.com\/middle-east-and-africa\/2026\/05\/21\/donald-trump-is-still-looking-for-a-quick-fix-in-iran\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><span dir=\"auto\">dos\u00e1hnout rychle<\/span><\/a><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0, a pot\u00e9 selhali v v\u00fdvoji strategie ani teorie v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed pro vleklou kampa\u0148.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">V minulosti poskytovaly ohromn\u00e9 \u200b\u200bvojensk\u00e9 a ekonomick\u00e9 v\u00fdhody Ameriky Washingtonu dostatek prostoru k tlumen\u00ed t\u011bchto opakovan\u00fdch vojensk\u00fdch zklam\u00e1n\u00ed. Dnes je tento pol\u0161t\u00e1\u0159 pry\u010d. V kombinaci s kumulativn\u00edmi \u00fa\u010dinky desetilet\u00ed americk\u00e9ho p\u0159ehnan\u00e9ho natahov\u00e1n\u00ed, rychl\u00e9ho\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/media.defense.gov\/2025\/Dec\/23\/2003849070\/-1\/-1\/1\/ANNUAL-REPORT-TO-CONGRESS-MILITARY-AND-SECURITY-DEVELOPMENTS-INVOLVING-THE-PEOPLES-REPUBLIC-OF-CHINA-2025.PDF\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><span dir=\"auto\">vojensk\u00e9ho rozvoje<\/span><\/a><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0\u010c\u00edny a demokratizace vojensk\u00e9 moci ve prosp\u011bch slab\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f a nest\u00e1tn\u00edch akt\u00e9r\u016f v\u00e1lka v \u00cdr\u00e1nu zni\u010dila velkou \u010d\u00e1st t\u00e9 mal\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 p\u0159evahy, kterou USA je\u0161t\u011b m\u011bly. \u010cty\u0159icet dn\u00ed boj\u016f plus \u0161est t\u00fddn\u016f blok\u00e1dy nejen vy\u010derpalo z\u00e1soby, ale tak\u00e9 odhalilo\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/responsiblestatecraft.org\/us-military-unprepared-war-china\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><span dir=\"auto\">syst\u00e9mov\u00e9 slabiny<\/span><\/a><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0americk\u00e9ho v\u00e1l\u010den\u00ed a jasn\u00e9 limity americk\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 s\u00edly. Poprv\u00e9 po desetilet\u00edch se zd\u00e1 \u2013 a je \u2013 americk\u00e1 arm\u00e1da poraziteln\u00e1.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Zaprv\u00e9, zranitelnost americk\u00fdch z\u00e1kladen, pozemn\u00ed protivzdu\u0161n\u00e9 obrany a vojensk\u00fdch letadel b\u011bhem v\u00e1lky m\u00e1 v\u00fdznamn\u00e9 d\u016fsledky pro udr\u017eitelnost vojensk\u00fdch z\u00e1vazk\u016f USA. Americk\u00e9 operace v jak\u00e9koli indicko-pacifick\u00e9 nouzov\u00e9 situaci by\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.csis.org\/analysis\/first-battle-next-war-wargaming-chinese-invasion-taiwan\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><span dir=\"auto\">siln\u011b z\u00e1visely na p\u0159edsunut\u00fdch z\u00e1kladen<\/span><\/a><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0, kter\u00e9 by mohly projektovat leteckou s\u00edlu, podporovat pr\u016fzkum, dohled a shroma\u017e\u010fov\u00e1n\u00ed zpravodajsk\u00fdch informac\u00ed a \u0159\u00eddit logistickou a bojovou podporu. Pl\u00e1ny Pentagonu se tak\u00e9 spol\u00e9haj\u00ed na schopnost pozemn\u00ed protivzdu\u0161n\u00e9 obrany chr\u00e1nit americkou vojenskou infrastrukturu, person\u00e1l a letadla. Pokud americk\u00e9 z\u00e1kladny na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b nemohou odolat \u00fatok\u016fm z \u00cdr\u00e1nu, mohly by z\u00e1kladny v Asii p\u0159e\u017e\u00edt konflikt s mnohem siln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed \u010d\u00ednskou arm\u00e1dou? Z\u016fstaly by americk\u00e9 s\u00edt\u011b protivzdu\u0161n\u00e9 obrany, tak rychle ochromen\u00e9 \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fdmi drony, v konfliktu v Asii v provozu? Odpov\u011b\u010f na ob\u011b ot\u00e1zky je pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b ne.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Z\u00e1rove\u0148 v\u00e1lka zd\u016fraznila omezen\u00ed \u00fatok\u016f veden\u00fdch na d\u00e1lku (tj. \u00fatok\u016f prov\u00e1d\u011bn\u00fdch na d\u00e1lku). Americk\u00e9 leteck\u00e9 a n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed \u00fadery dos\u00e1hly proti \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fdm vojensk\u00fdm c\u00edl\u016fm jen omezen\u00e9ho \u00fasp\u011bchu, a to i p\u0159es omezen\u00e9 obrann\u00e9 schopnosti \u00cdr\u00e1nu. \u00cdr\u00e1n byl schopen ochr\u00e1nit velkou \u010d\u00e1st sv\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 infrastruktury a schopnost\u00ed a b\u011bhem konfliktu inovovat v oblastech, jako je protivzdu\u0161n\u00e1 obrana. Podobn\u00e9 \u00fatoky na \u010d\u00ednskou infrastrukturu budou pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b je\u0161t\u011b m\u00e9n\u011b \u00fa\u010dinn\u00e9, zejm\u00e9na pokud americk\u00e9 vzdu\u0161n\u00e9 a n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed s\u00edly budou muset operovat zpoza druh\u00e9ho ostrovn\u00edho \u0159et\u011bzce, aby se vyhnuly \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fdm raket\u00e1m.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Selh\u00e1n\u00ed Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f v jin\u00fdch oblastech je tak\u00e9 zjevn\u00e9. Spojen\u00fdm st\u00e1t\u016fm se nepoda\u0159ilo znovuotev\u0159\u00edt Hormuzsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv vojenskou silou, i kdy\u017e n\u011bkte\u0159\u00ed by mohli nam\u00edtnout, \u017ee by to bylo mo\u017en\u00e9, kdyby \u010dlov\u011bk byl ochoten akceptovat vysok\u00e1 rizika eskalace a n\u00e1klady spojen\u00e9 s takov\u00fdm man\u00e9vrem. A propustn\u00e1\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.com\/news\/articles\/ckge7138l2go\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><span dir=\"auto\">povaha<\/span><\/a><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0americk\u00e9 protiblok\u00e1dy by m\u011bla\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.militarystrategymagazine.com\/article\/offshore-control-a-proposed-strategy\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><span dir=\"auto\">slou\u017eit jako varov\u00e1n\u00ed t\u011bm, kte\u0159\u00ed tvrd\u00ed<\/span><\/a><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0, \u017ee v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b v\u00e1lky v Asii by Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty mohly od\u0159\u00edznout p\u0159\u00edstup do Malack\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu nebo uvalit embarga na \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edstavy. A kone\u010dn\u011b, americk\u00e9 pozemn\u00ed s\u00edly\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cfr.org\/articles\/the-iran-wars-hard-lessons\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><span dir=\"auto\">z velk\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1sti nedok\u00e1zaly<\/span><\/a><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0\u010delit hrozb\u011b \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fdch dron\u016f a nejsou schopny j\u00ed \u010delit vlastn\u00edmi silami. Spolu s ponau\u010den\u00edmi z v\u00e1lky na Ukrajin\u011b\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.armed-services.senate.gov\/imo\/media\/doc\/driscoll_opening_statement3.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><span dir=\"auto\">ji\u017e ameri\u010dt\u00ed vojen\u0161t\u00ed v\u016fdci uznali<\/span><\/a><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0, \u017ee mus\u00ed radik\u00e1ln\u011b zm\u011bnit sv\u016fj p\u0159\u00edstup k man\u00e9vrovac\u00ed v\u00e1lce p\u0159i pl\u00e1nov\u00e1n\u00ed budouc\u00edch mimo\u0159\u00e1dn\u00fdch ud\u00e1lost\u00ed, v\u010detn\u011b t\u011bch, kter\u00e9 zahrnuj\u00ed podporu spojenc\u016f NATO v pozemn\u00ed v\u00e1lce v Evrop\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Nejd\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00edm ponau\u010den\u00edm je, \u017ee americk\u00e1 vojensk\u00e1 s\u00edla u\u017e jednodu\u0161e nedosahuje tak daleko ani nem\u00e1 takovou trvalou s\u00edlu jako kdysi. Stejn\u011b z\u00e1va\u017en\u00e1 je skute\u010dnost, \u017ee v\u00e1lka v \u00cdr\u00e1nu nazna\u010duje, \u017ee nedostate\u010dnost sou\u010dasn\u00e9ho vojensk\u00e9ho postaven\u00ed USA je syst\u00e9mov\u00e1 a strategick\u00e1, a nikoli pouze ot\u00e1zka nedostate\u010dn\u00fdch zdroj\u016f nebo z\u00e1sob munice.\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.war.gov\/News\/News-Stories\/Article\/Article\/4465551\/15-trillion-budget-request-prioritizes-service-members-modernization\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><span dir=\"auto\">Obrann\u00fd rozpo\u010det ve v\u00fd\u0161i 1,5 bilionu dolar\u016f<\/span><\/a><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0ani investice do obrann\u00e9ho pr\u016fmyslu tyto probl\u00e9my nevy\u0159e\u0161\u00ed. M\u00edsto toho budou Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty nuceny p\u0159ehodnotit a omezit sv\u00e9 glob\u00e1ln\u00ed z\u00e1vazky zp\u016fsobem, jak\u00fdm to v minulosti neud\u011blaly.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">V \u010dl\u00e1nku v \u010dasopise\u00a0<\/span><em><span dir=\"auto\">Foreign Affairs<\/span><\/em><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0z po\u010d\u00e1tku tohoto roku A. Wess Mitchell, b\u00fdval\u00fd pracovn\u00edk prvn\u00ed Trumpovy administrativy, uznal, \u017ee Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty se p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 napjaly. Vyz\u00fdv\u00e1 ke\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.foreignaffairs.com\/united-states\/trump-grand-strategy-consolidation-wes-mitchell\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><span dir=\"auto\">strategii konsolidace<\/span><\/a><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0, v n\u00ed\u017e by se Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty zbavily z\u00e1t\u011b\u017ee v perifern\u00edch opera\u010dn\u00edch s\u00e1lech \u2013 konkr\u00e9tn\u011b na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b a v Evrop\u011b \u2013 a o\u017eivily by motory americk\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 a ekonomick\u00e9 s\u00edly investicemi do obrann\u00e9ho pr\u016fmyslu a obnoven\u00edm rovnov\u00e1hy v obchodn\u00edch vztaz\u00edch s kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fdmi partnery, jako je \u010c\u00edna. Navrhuje, aby konsolidace byla alternativou k odchodu z arm\u00e1dy, za p\u0159edpokladu, \u017ee z\u00e1klady americk\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 s\u00edly z\u016fstanou pevn\u00e9 a vy\u017eaduj\u00ed pouze nov\u00e9 uspo\u0159\u00e1d\u00e1n\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Tato mo\u017enost se bohu\u017eel po v\u00e1lce s \u00cdr\u00e1nem ji\u017e nezd\u00e1 realistick\u00e1. Rozd\u00edl mezi zdroji USA a jejich aktu\u00e1ln\u011b deklarovan\u00fdmi c\u00edli je jednodu\u0161e p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 velk\u00fd a struktur\u00e1ln\u00ed na to, aby se dal p\u0159eklenout pr\u016fmyslov\u00fdmi investicemi nebo nov\u00fdmi obchodn\u00edmi dohodami. Z\u00e1kladn\u00ed p\u0159edpoklad konsolidace \u2013 \u017ee hnac\u00ed s\u00edly americk\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 moci jsou st\u00e1le funk\u010dn\u00ed \u2013 je nyn\u00ed zpochybn\u011bn.\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnn.com\/2026\/05\/21\/politics\/fact-check-vance-manufacturing-jobs\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><span dir=\"auto\">V\u00fdrobn\u00ed kapacita USA<\/span><\/a><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0se navzdory zna\u010dn\u00fdm investic\u00edm neobnovila a s n\u00e1rodn\u00edm dluhem p\u0159esahuj\u00edc\u00edm\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.crfb.org\/press-releases\/debt-reaches-100-gdp\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><span dir=\"auto\">100 procent HDP<\/span><\/a><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0a rostouc\u00edmi cenami energi\u00ed sl\u00e1bne odolnost americk\u00e9 ekonomiky. Je nepravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9, \u017ee by Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty dok\u00e1zaly dostate\u010dn\u011b rychle vyrobit dostatek raket nebo dostate\u010dn\u011b obnovit svou kapacitu stavby lod\u00ed, aby si udr\u017eely by\u0165 jen zlomek sv\u00e9ho sou\u010dasn\u00e9ho portfolia glob\u00e1ln\u00edch z\u00e1vazk\u016f. Nav\u00edc po nasazen\u00ed tolika vojensk\u00fdch sil do v\u00e1lky na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b nen\u00ed jasn\u00e9, zda Spojen\u00fdm st\u00e1t\u016fm zb\u00fdv\u00e1 je\u0161t\u011b mnoho na to, aby konsolidovaly sv\u00e9 zdroje a p\u0159esm\u011brovaly je do opera\u010dn\u00edch s\u00e1l\u016f, kter\u00e9 Mitchell pova\u017euje za prioritn\u00ed, v\u010detn\u011b Asie a z\u00e1padn\u00ed polokoule.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Nyn\u00ed je pro Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty jedinou mo\u017enost\u00ed sta\u017een\u00ed. Zpr\u00e1vy ale nejsou \u00fapln\u011b \u0161patn\u00e9. A\u010dkoli americk\u00e1 vojensk\u00e1 dominance sl\u00e1bne, zem\u011b m\u00e1 st\u00e1le oproti jak\u00e9mukoli potenci\u00e1ln\u00edmu rivalovi zna\u010dn\u00e9 v\u00fdhody ve v\u011bt\u0161in\u011b opera\u010dn\u00edch s\u00e1l\u016f. I v Asii, kde Washington \u010del\u00ed stejn\u011b siln\u00e9mu vyzyvateli, nen\u00ed \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e1 arm\u00e1da schopna Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty z regionu zcela vytla\u010dit. Tv\u016frci politik proto maj\u00ed ur\u010ditou m\u00edru flexibility v tom, kter\u00e9 z\u00e1vazky si zachovat a kter\u00fdch se vzd\u00e1t. Jin\u00fdmi slovy, sta\u017een\u00ed je zvl\u00e1dnuteln\u00e9.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Pokud ameri\u010dt\u00ed politici \u010del\u00ed obt\u00ed\u017en\u00fdm rozhodnut\u00edm, m\u011bli by se ve sv\u00fdch rozhodnut\u00edch op\u00edrat o \u00fazkou definici n\u00e1rodn\u00edch z\u00e1jm\u016f \u2013 konkr\u00e9tn\u011b pouze o dva: obranu vlasti a zaji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed p\u0159\u00edstupu na kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e9 ekonomick\u00e9 trhy. Takov\u00e1 definice by umo\u017enila\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.defensepriorities.org\/explainers\/aligning-global-military-posture-with-us-interests\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><span dir=\"auto\">podstatn\u00e9 sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed<\/span><\/a><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0po\u010dtu americk\u00fdch sil rozm\u00edst\u011bn\u00fdch v zahrani\u010d\u00ed. Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty nepot\u0159ebuj\u00ed vojensk\u00e9 z\u00e1kladny a rozm\u00edst\u011bn\u00ed vojsk v Evrop\u011b ani na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b, aby tyto z\u00e1jmy chr\u00e1nily. V \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9m z t\u011bchto opera\u010dn\u00edch prostor neexistuje skute\u010dn\u00fd vyzyvatel hegemonie a hrozb\u00e1m, kter\u00fdm Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty \u010del\u00ed, lze \u010delit pravideln\u00fdm nasazen\u00edm vzdu\u0161n\u00fdch a n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00edch sil, zlep\u0161enou protiraketovou obranou doma a robustn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed glob\u00e1ln\u00ed ekonomickou strategi\u00ed. Kontrolovan\u00e9 sta\u017een\u00ed vojsk by tak\u00e9 vy\u017eadovalo sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed bezpe\u010dnostn\u00edch z\u00e1ruk USA. I kdyby Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty z\u016fstaly v NATO, m\u011bly by se vr\u00e1tit k doslovn\u00e9mu v\u00fdkladu \u010dl\u00e1nku 5, kter\u00fd sni\u017euje z\u00e1vazky USA, a vzd\u00e1t se v\u0161ech bezpe\u010dnostn\u00edch z\u00e1vazk\u016f na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b \u2013 v regionu, kter\u00fd nebyl ni\u010d\u00edm jin\u00fdm ne\u017e probl\u00e9mem.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">V Asii by strategie kontrolovan\u00e9ho sta\u017een\u00ed podobn\u011b sn\u00ed\u017eila americkou p\u0159\u00edtomnost a bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed z\u00e1ruky, i kdy\u017e zpo\u010d\u00e1tku mo\u017en\u00e1 v men\u0161\u00ed m\u00ed\u0159e. Neudr\u017eiteln\u00e9 postoje, jako je americk\u00e1 politika strategick\u00e9 nejednozna\u010dnosti ohledn\u011b Tchaj-wanu, by m\u011bly b\u00fdt opu\u0161t\u011bny. Washington\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookings.edu\/articles\/a-strategy-for-staying-out-recalibrating-us-support-to-taiwan\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><span dir=\"auto\">by m\u011bl d\u00e1t jasn\u011b najevo<\/span><\/a><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0, \u017ee Tchaj-wan nebude br\u00e1nit \u2013 co\u017e by sn\u00ed\u017eilo riziko v\u00e1lky s \u010c\u00ednou, na kterou Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty v sou\u010dasn\u00e9 dob\u011b nejsou p\u0159ipraveny. Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty by se m\u011bly vzd\u00e1t dal\u0161\u00edch nezbytn\u00fdch alian\u010dn\u00edch z\u00e1vazk\u016f, v\u010detn\u011b z\u00e1vazk\u016f v\u016f\u010di Thajsku, Filip\u00edn\u00e1m a Ji\u017en\u00ed Koreji, a z\u00e1rove\u0148 by se m\u011bly vzd\u00e1t sv\u00fdch vztah\u016f s Japonskem. To by umo\u017enilo p\u0159esun americk\u00fdch sil v Asii sm\u011brem od \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9ho pob\u0159e\u017e\u00ed k severn\u00edmu Japonsku a druh\u00e9mu souostrov\u00ed \u2013 co\u017e by sta\u010dilo k obran\u011b p\u0159\u00edstupu USA na trhy a obchodn\u00ed cesty.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Tyto zm\u011bny v p\u0159\u00edstupu a alian\u010dn\u00edch z\u00e1vazc\u00edch by znamenaly masivn\u00ed p\u0159etv\u00e1\u0159en\u00ed americk\u00e9 zahrani\u010dn\u00ed politiky, ale v\u00fdsledkem by byla udr\u017eiteln\u00e1 vojensk\u00e1 pozice, kter\u00e1 by odpov\u00eddala schopnostem a zdroj\u016fm USA a byla by uzp\u016fsobena k ochran\u011b americk\u00fdch z\u00e1jm\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Ti, kte\u0159\u00ed si p\u0159ej\u00ed udr\u017eet hegemonii USA \u2013 mnoz\u00ed z nich jsou ti sam\u00ed, kte\u0159\u00ed pova\u017euj\u00ed v\u00e1lku s \u00cdr\u00e1nem za \u00fasp\u011bch vy\u017eaduj\u00edc\u00ed jen n\u011bkolik t\u00fddn\u016f bombardov\u00e1n\u00ed \u2013 budou tato doporu\u010den\u00ed odm\u00edtat a budou se zasazovat o zachov\u00e1n\u00ed statu quo. Takov\u00e9 zpo\u017ed\u011bn\u00ed v\u0161ak zni\u010d\u00ed jakoukoli \u0161anci na kontrolovan\u00e9 sta\u017een\u00ed vojsk a uvrhne Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty do reality, kde je sta\u017een\u00ed povinn\u00e9, nevyhnuteln\u00e9 a bude jim vynuceno.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">K nucen\u00e9mu sta\u017een\u00ed by mohlo doj\u00edt mnoha zp\u016fsoby, ale v\u0161echny varianty by se jevily jako \u00fanik. Omezen\u00ed zdroj\u016f by mohlo Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty donutit ke sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed z\u00e1vazk\u016f, uzav\u0159en\u00ed z\u00e1kladen a zmen\u0161en\u00ed jejich vojensk\u00e9 struktury. Por\u00e1\u017eka ve vojensk\u00e9m konfliktu, vyvolan\u00e1 neudr\u017eiteln\u00fdm nasazen\u00edm, zraniteln\u00fdmi z\u00e1kladnami a chronick\u00fdm p\u0159et\u00ed\u017een\u00edm, by tak\u00e9 mohla donutit USA ke sta\u017een\u00ed. V ka\u017ed\u00e9m z t\u011bchto sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159\u016f by nedobrovoln\u00e9 sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed vojensk\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edtomnosti USA mohlo ohrozit z\u00e1jmy USA. Pod tlakem tv\u016frci politik ztrat\u00ed schopnost kontrolovat tempo nebo um\u00edst\u011bn\u00ed zm\u011bn v americk\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edtomnosti. M\u00edsto toho by tato rozhodnut\u00ed mohla b\u00fdt diktov\u00e1na americk\u00fdmi protivn\u00edky, finan\u010dn\u00edmi tlaky nebo vn\u011bj\u0161\u00edmi omezen\u00edmi, kter\u00e1 v kone\u010dn\u00e9m d\u016fsledku po\u0161kozuj\u00ed americkou bezpe\u010dnost a prosperitu.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">V dne\u0161n\u00ed debat\u011b o zahrani\u010dn\u00ed politice ve Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1tech dominuj\u00ed d\u016fsledky v\u00e1lky s \u00cdr\u00e1nem. Dohoda o \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed z\u00e1kladn\u00edch p\u0159\u00ed\u010din konfliktu st\u00e1le \u010dek\u00e1 na uzav\u0159en\u00ed, ale tv\u016frci politik mus\u00ed nyn\u00ed za\u010d\u00edt diskutovat o dal\u0161\u00edch kroc\u00edch. V\u00e1lka odhalila k\u0159ehkost americk\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 s\u00edly a jasn\u00e9 limity toho, \u010deho m\u016f\u017ee v modern\u00edm sv\u011bt\u011b dos\u00e1hnout. M\u00edsto toho, aby se tv\u016frci politik dr\u017eeli fikce, \u017ee se americk\u00e1 zahrani\u010dn\u00ed politika po v\u00e1lce m\u016f\u017ee jednodu\u0161e vr\u00e1tit k norm\u00e1lu, m\u011bli by se postavit realit\u011b \u010delem: \u00e9ra americk\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 hegemonie \u2013 a americk\u00e9ho imp\u00e9ria \u2013 skon\u010dila. V\u00fdsledn\u00e1 budoucnost bude pro Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty m\u00e9n\u011b pohodln\u00e1, ale tyto zm\u011bny jsou u\u017e d\u00e1vno na m\u00edst\u011b a v\u00fdzvy jsou zvl\u00e1dnuteln\u00e9. Se spr\u00e1vn\u00fdmi kroky podniknut\u00fdmi dnes m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt sta\u017een\u00ed USA lep\u0161\u00ed pro Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty i pro sv\u011bt.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><em><span dir=\"auto\">Od Jennifer Kavanagh<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-8c57238 quelle dc-has-condition dc-condition-empty elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"8c57238\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n<h3 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\"><span style=\"font-size: 10pt;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.theamericanconservative.com\/the-iran-war-and-the-future-of-american-empire\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\"><span dir=\"auto\">Zdroj<\/span><\/a><\/span><\/h3>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>V\u00e1lky se \u010dasto zvrtnou ne\u010dekan\u00fdm zp\u016fsobem. I dob\u0159e napl\u00e1novan\u00e9 operace mohou b\u00fdt zma\u0159eny nep\u0159edv\u00eddan\u00fdmi ud\u00e1lostmi,&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":108537,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,38,276,37,40],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/108536"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=108536"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/108536\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/108537"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=108536"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=108536"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=108536"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}