{"id":108514,"date":"2026-06-11T06:24:25","date_gmt":"2026-06-11T04:24:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=108514"},"modified":"2026-06-11T06:24:25","modified_gmt":"2026-06-11T04:24:25","slug":"michael-svatos-valka-na-ukrajine-a-vcerejsi-prognoza-jejiho-jisteho-viteze","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/06\/11\/michael-svatos-valka-na-ukrajine-a-vcerejsi-prognoza-jejiho-jisteho-viteze\/","title":{"rendered":"Michael Svato\u0161: V\u00e1lka na Ukrajin\u011b a v\u010derej\u0161\u00ed progn\u00f3za jej\u00edho jist\u00e9ho v\u00edt\u011bze…"},"content":{"rendered":"
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V\u00e1lka na Ukrajin\u011b a v\u010derej\u0161\u00ed progn\u00f3za jej\u00edho jist\u00e9ho v\u00edt\u011bze od \u201cnereformovateln\u00e9 NeoConky\u201d Anny Appelbaum. Od \u010das\u016f, kdy bubnovala za v\u00e1lku proti Sadd\u00e1movi, \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e1 zm\u011bna<\/h3>\n

Z\u00e1padn\u00ed mainstream letos v \u010dervnu spustil velkou medi\u00e1ln\u00ed ofenz\u00edvu, a v n\u00ed tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee Ukrajina za\u010d\u00edn\u00e1 obracet v\u00fdvoj v\u00e1lky proti Rusku ve sv\u016fj prosp\u011bch. Jednou z hlavn\u00edch propagandistek tohoto nejnov\u011bj\u0161\u00edho narativu je zn\u00e1m\u00e1 americk\u00e1 novin\u00e1\u0159ka Anna Appelbaum, od roku 1992 man\u017eelka nyn\u011bj\u0161\u00edho polsk\u00e9ho ministra zahrani\u010d\u00ed Radoslawa Sikorsky, a osoba obecn\u011b pova\u017eov\u00e1na za \u201cnereformovatelnou neokonzervativku<\/a>\u201c, zast\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00ed jedinou pozici, a to, \u017ee agresivn\u00ed v\u00e1lky neoliber\u00e1ln\u00edho Z\u00e1padu proti v\u0161em, kdo bezv\u00fdhradn\u011b nep\u0159ijmou jeho nov\u00e9 progresivistick\u00e9 hodnoty, p\u0159edstavuj\u00ed jedinou mo\u017enou politiku pro USA, i EU.<\/p>\n

Appalebaumov\u00e1 ve sv\u00e9 letit\u00e9 novin\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9 historii h\u00e1z\u00ed v\u0161echny do jednoho pytle nep\u0159\u00e1tel neoliber\u00e1ln\u00edho progresivistick\u00e9ho Z\u00e1padu, Donaldem Trumpem po\u010d\u00ednaje, p\u0159es Viktora Orb\u00e1na, a\u017e po zesnul\u00e9ho Huga Ch\u00e1veze. Ve sv\u00e9 knize\u00a0\u00a0\u201c<\/span>Autocracy, Inc\u00a0Dikt\u00e1to\u0159i, kte\u0159\u00ed cht\u011bj\u00ed vl\u00e1dnout sv\u011btu, nakladatelstv\u00ed\u00a0<\/cite>Penguin, 2024 \u201d\u00a0<\/span><\/cite>napsala:\u00a0\u201cModern\u00ed autokrat\u00e9 se v mnoha ohledech li\u0161\u00ed od sv\u00fdch p\u0159edch\u016fdc\u016f z dvac\u00e1t\u00e9ho stolet\u00ed. Ale d\u011bdicov\u00e9\u2026 t\u011bchto star\u0161\u00edch v\u016fdc\u016f, a\u0165 u\u017e se jejich ideologie li\u0161ily jakkoli, maj\u00ed spole\u010dn\u00e9ho nep\u0159\u00edtele. T\u00edm nep\u0159\u00edtelem jsme my. P\u0159esn\u011bji \u0159e\u010deno, t\u00edmto nep\u0159\u00edtelem je demokratick\u00fd sv\u011bt, \u201eZ\u00e1pad\u201c, NATO, Evropsk\u00e1 unie, jejich vlastn\u00ed, vnit\u0159n\u00ed demokrati\u010dt\u00ed oponenti a, co je d\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, liber\u00e1ln\u00ed my\u0161lenky, kter\u00e9 je v\u0161echny inspiruj\u00ed.\u201d.\u00a0<\/em><\/span><\/cite><\/p>\n

A v podobn\u00e9m duchu se Appelbaumov\u00e1 ozvala i v\u010dera k Ukrajin\u011b. Putin pr\u00fd v\u00e1lku nevyhraje, a tedy ji prohraje. A Zelenskyj ve v\u00e1lce nebude pora\u017een, a tedy ji vyhraje. Tento nov\u00fd narativ o bl\u00ed\u017e\u00edc\u00edm se v\u00fdsledku v\u00e1lky na Ukrajin\u011b se stal letos v dubnu evergreenem v\u0161ech z\u00e1padn\u00edch progresivistick\u00fdch m\u00e9di\u00ed, a Appelbaumov\u00e1, aby mu dodala v\u00e1\u017enosti, v\u010dera tvrdila, \u017ee:<\/p>\n

(1)\u00a0Ukrajina z\u00edskala ve v\u00e1lce dron\u016f technologickou p\u0159evahu, a proto mohou jej\u00ed oper\u00e1to\u0159i nyn\u00ed ovl\u00e1dat sv\u00e9 pr\u016fzkumn\u00e9, zabij\u00e1ck\u00e9 i st\u00edhac\u00ed drony \u201cz mal\u00fdch nen\u00e1padn\u00fdch automobil\u016f rozm\u00edst\u011bn\u00fdch kolem Kyjeva\u201d a \u201cnebo z bunkr\u016f v Kyjev\u011b\u201d, a p\u0159itom tyto drony l\u00e9taj\u00ed a zab\u00edjej\u00ed Rusy \u201cstovky kilometr\u016f\u201d od m\u00edsta, odkud je jejich oper\u00e1to\u0159i \u0159\u00edd\u00ed.\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n

(2) D\u00edky t\u011bmto na \u201cstovky kilometr\u016f\u201d ovl\u00e1dan\u00fdm ukrajinsk\u00fdm dron\u016fm nen\u00ed nyn\u00ed rusk\u00e1 arm\u00e1da schopn\u00e1 ani \u00fato\u010dit, ani postupovat, a ani se br\u00e1nit. A tento p\u00e1s smrti dron\u016f, kter\u00fd nyn\u00ed nov\u00e9 ukrajinsk\u00e9 drony na front\u011b vytvo\u0159ily do hloubky 32 kilometr\u016f, se brzy roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159\u00ed d\u00edky z\u00e1padn\u00edmu technologick\u00e9mu pokroku a\u017e na 48 kilometr\u016f, a pak na a\u017e 68 kilometr\u016f, a \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fd rusk\u00fd voj\u00e1k p\u0159itom brzy v takto \u0161irok\u00e9 z\u00f3n\u011b smrti dron\u016f nep\u0159e\u017eije, a cel\u00e1 fronta se proto zastav\u00ed, a Rusko nebude moci dos\u00e1hnout sv\u00fdch v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00fdch c\u00edl\u016f, a obsadit ta ukrajinsk\u00e1 \u00fazem\u00ed, kter\u00e1 jsou p\u0159edm\u011btem sporu, a je\u0161t\u011b nebyla obsazena, a nastane proto p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed pod\u00e9l cel\u00e9 linie fronty, stejn\u00e9 jako u\u017e des\u00edtky let plat\u00ed mezi Ji\u017en\u00ed a Severn\u00ed Koreou.\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n

(3) Ukrajinci nav\u00edc nyn\u00ed za\u010dali \u00fa\u010dinn\u011b \u00fato\u010dit na Rusko, a rusk\u00e1 mor\u00e1lka se pod t\u00edhou t\u011bchto \u00fatok\u016f brzy zhrout\u00ed.\u00a0 Jakmile toti\u017e Rusov\u00e9 spat\u0159\u00ed velkolep\u00e9 sloupy kou\u0159e vzn\u00e1\u0161ej\u00edc\u00ed se pravideln\u011b nad jejich st\u00e1le \u010dast\u011bji zasahovan\u00fdmi m\u011bsty a tov\u00e1rnami, a sou\u010dasn\u011b si uv\u011bdom\u00ed, \u017ee v\u00e1lku nemohou vyhr\u00e1t ani na front\u011b kv\u016fli p\u0159evaze ukrajinsk\u00fdm dron\u016f, Putinova le\u017e o snadn\u00e9m v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed nad Ukrajinou je p\u0159estane ovl\u00e1dat, a jejich mor\u00e1lka se rozpadne.\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n

(4) Ukrajinci u\u017e te\u010f zab\u00edjej\u00ed 30 000 Rus\u016f m\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u011b, a osvobozuj\u00ed od Rus\u016f mnohem v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed \u00fazem\u00ed, ne\u017e jsou Rusov\u00e9 schopni obsazovat, a maj\u00ed mnohem men\u0161\u00ed ztr\u00e1ty.\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n

Appelbaumov\u00e1 se od doby,\u00a0kdy urputn\u011b podporovala vyhl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed druh\u00e9 v\u00e1lky USA proti Sadd\u00e1movi t\u00edm<\/a>,\u00a0\u017ee Sadd\u00e1ma p\u0159irovn\u00e1vala k Hitlerovi, a tvrdila, \u017ee Sad\u00e1m proti USA pou\u017eije sv\u00e9 nachystan\u00e9 chemick\u00e9 zbran\u011b, (kter\u00e9 neexistovaly, jak se pozd\u011bji uk\u00e1zalo), nijak nezm\u011bnila. A jej\u00ed argumenty op\u011bt siln\u011b pokulh\u00e1vaj\u00ed.<\/p>\n

(5) N\u00e1\u010deln\u00edk gener\u00e1ln\u00edho \u0161t\u00e1bu Ukrajiny\u00a0gener\u00e1l Andrii Hnatov v\u010dera varoval tamn\u00ed politiky<\/a>, aby neslibovali ukrajinsk\u00fdm ob\u010dan\u016fm, \u017ee v\u00e1lka brzy skon\u010d\u00ed, a ani nevyvol\u00e1vali fale\u0161n\u00e9 iluze, \u017ee n\u011bkte\u0159\u00ed ukrajin\u0161t\u00ed voj\u00e1ci budou demobilizov\u00e1ni je\u0161t\u011b p\u0159ed koncem v\u00e1lky, proto\u017ee ukrajinsk\u00e1 arm\u00e1da si nyn\u00ed nem\u016f\u017ee absolutn\u011b dovolit nikoho demobilizovat, proto\u017ee tempo sou\u010dasn\u00e9 ukrajinsk\u00e9 mobilizace je nedostate\u010dn\u00e9, a nen\u00ed tak mo\u017en\u00e9 nikoho z arm\u00e1dy propustit.<\/em><\/p>\n

(6)<\/em>\u00a0A z\u00e1rove\u0148 varoval<\/a>, \u017ee Rusko st\u00e1le zvy\u0161uje v\u00fdrobu balistick\u00fdch raket, a dal\u0161\u00edch st\u0159el a dron\u016f. A \u017ee ukrajinsk\u00e9 arm\u00e1d\u011b zcela chyb\u00ed zbran\u011b proti rusk\u00fdm balistick\u00fdm raket\u00e1m, a trp\u00ed zna\u010dn\u00fdm nedostatkem dron\u016f, zbran\u00ed proti dron\u016fm, i munice s dlouh\u00fdm doletem. A chyb\u00ed ji i zna\u010dn\u00e9 mno\u017estv\u00ed prost\u0159edk\u016f radiotechnick\u00e9ho boje.\u00a0 A nen\u00ed ani schopna zajistit protivzdu\u0161nou obranu v\u011bt\u0161iny ukrajinsk\u00fdch m\u011bst a kritick\u00e9 infrastruktury zem\u011b.\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n

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Na tomto ukrajinsk\u00e9m grafu vid\u00edte po\u010det \u0159\u00edzen\u00fdch klouzav\u00fdch bomb o v\u00e1ze od 500kg do 3000kg, kter\u00e9 rusk\u00e9 letectvo ka\u017ed\u00fd m\u011bs\u00edc vypou\u0161t\u00ed proti ukrajinsk\u00e9 arm\u00e1d\u011b a jej\u00edm bunkr\u016fm a opevn\u011bn\u00edm a\u017e do hloubky 100km od linie fronty. Ukrajina nic podobn\u00e9ho nevlastn\u00ed, pomineme-li v\u010dera \u00fadajn\u011b vypu\u0161t\u011bnou jednu klouzavou bombu.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Appelbaumov\u00e1 v\u010dera opakovala ust\u00e1len\u00fd narativ ukrajinsk\u00e9 propagandy, \u017ee Rus\u016f padne ka\u017ed\u00fd m\u011bs\u00edc mnohem v\u00edc ne\u017e Ukrajinc\u016f, aktu\u00e1ln\u011b pr\u00fd podle Appelbaumov\u00e9,\u00a0ta ov\u0161em citovala vyhl\u00e1\u0161en\u00e9ho teflonov\u00e9ho politick\u00e9ho profesion\u00e1ln\u00edho lh\u00e1\u0159e Marka Rutte<\/a>, \u0161\u00e9fa NATO, nyn\u00ed padne 30 000 Rus\u016f m\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u011b. Logika tohoto ukrajinsk\u00e9ho narativu je podivn\u00e1. Cel\u00e9 dva roky Ukrajinci zd\u016fvod\u0148ovali, \u017ee Rus\u016f ve v\u00e1lce padne a je zran\u011bno v\u00edc ne\u017e Ukrajinc\u016f, proto\u017ee Rusov\u00e9 \u00fato\u010d\u00ed, a \u00fato\u010dn\u00edk v\u017edy nese vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed ztr\u00e1ty. \u017de toto pravidlo plat\u00ed v\u00fdlu\u010dn\u011b, kdy\u017e \u00fato\u010dn\u00edk nem\u00e1 n\u011bkolikan\u00e1sobnou leteckou a d\u011blost\u0159eleckou p\u0159evahu, nov\u011b i p\u0159evahu ve dronech, ukrajinsk\u00e9 i evropsk\u00e9 propagand\u011b nevadilo.<\/p>\n

A letos si z\u00e1padn\u00ed propaganda je\u0161t\u011b p\u0159isadila. A za\u010dala tvrdit, \u017ee Ukrajinci \u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u011b \u00fato\u010d\u00ed, a u\u017e vyh\u00e1n\u011bj\u00ed Rusy i z \u00fazem\u00ed, kter\u00e1 p\u0159edt\u00edm byli Ukrajinci nuceni vyklidit. A pov\u0161imn\u011bte si nejnov\u011bj\u0161\u00ed absurdn\u00ed ukrajinsk\u00e9 a z\u00e1padn\u00ed logiky \u2013 Ukrajinci letos \u00fato\u010d\u00ed, a p\u0159esto maj\u00ed je\u0161t\u011b men\u0161\u00ed ztr\u00e1ty, ne\u017e je m\u011bli, kdy\u017e se posledn\u00ed dva roky jenom br\u00e1nili. Narativ, \u017ee obr\u00e1nce v\u017edy nese men\u0161\u00ed ztr\u00e1ty ne\u017e \u00fato\u010dn\u00edk, ukrajinsk\u00e1 i z\u00e1padn\u00ed propaganda letos na ja\u0159e zcela opustila. A p\u0159itom, Ukrajinci nemaj\u00ed ani p\u0159esn\u011b nav\u00e1d\u011bn\u00e9 klouzav\u00e9 bomby, kter\u00fdch Rusov\u00e9 vypou\u0161t\u011bj\u00ed proti ukrajinsk\u00e9 arm\u00e1d\u011b ka\u017ed\u00fd m\u011bs\u00edc tak\u0159ka 8000 kus\u016f. Ukrajinci nemaj\u00ed ani s Rusy srovnateln\u00fd po\u010det zabij\u00e1ck\u00fdch frontov\u00fdch dron\u016f, a opera\u010dn\u011b strategick\u00fdch dron\u016f. A Ukrajinci vyst\u0159eluj\u00ed proti Rus\u016fm m\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u011b jen okolo 9000 kus\u016f gran\u00e1t\u016f r\u00e1\u017e\u00ed 155 a 152 milimetr\u016f, zat\u00edmco Rusov\u00e9 st\u0159\u00edl\u00ed proti Ukrajinc\u016fm m\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u011b 28 000 kus\u016f gran\u00e1t\u016f 152 a 203 milimetr\u016f.<\/p>\n

Vr\u00e1t\u00edme-li se k za\u010d\u00e1tku argument\u016f Appelbaumov\u00e9, \u017ee chyt\u0159\u00ed Ukrajinci \u0159\u00edd\u00ed z oby\u010dejn\u00fdch nen\u00e1padn\u00fdch automobil\u016f parkuj\u00edc\u00edch kolem Kyjeva zabij\u00e1ck\u00e9, pr\u016fzkumn\u00e9 a st\u00edhac\u00ed drony, a ty l\u00e9taj\u00ed stovky kilometr\u016f v\u00fdchodn\u011b od m\u00edsta, odkud je jejich oper\u00e1to\u0159i nav\u00e1d\u011bj\u00ed, uvid\u00edme jasn\u011b, jak Appelbaumov\u00e1 op\u011bt rafinovan\u011b manipuluje s fakty, aby mohla \u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u011b argumentovat pro ukrajinsk\u00e9 v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed. Dron, kter\u00fd ukrajinsk\u00fd oper\u00e1tor ukryt\u00fd n\u011bkde u Kyjeva nav\u00e1d\u00ed n\u011bkde na Donbase, nebo u Charkova, \u010di Sum, m\u00e1 velmi kr\u00e1tk\u00fd dolet, a tak ho n\u011bkdo na sv\u00fdch z\u00e1dech mus\u00ed p\u0159ivl\u00e9ct na frontu, a tam p\u0159ipravit k vypu\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed. A ten u toho nejsp\u00ed\u0161 zem\u0159e, byv rozmet\u00e1n rusk\u00fdmi klouzav\u00fdmi bombami, drony i d\u011blost\u0159eleck\u00fdmi gran\u00e1ty.<\/p>\n

V\u00fdsledek v\u00e1lky je v\u017edy sou\u010dtem v\u0161ech kvalit a kvantit proti sob\u011b bojuj\u00edc\u00edch arm\u00e1d. Ukrajina je v tomto nel\u00edtostn\u00e9m sou\u010dtu st\u00e1le je\u0161t\u011b v\u00fdrazn\u011b slab\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e Rusko, a proto v\u00e1lku prohraje. A Rusko nebude muset ani nasadit jadern\u00e9 zbran\u011b. Kremlu sice nejnov\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ukrajinsk\u00e9 \u00fatoky proti logistice Krymu, i proti rusk\u00fdm strategick\u00fdm tov\u00e1rn\u00e1m a rafineri\u00edm vad\u00ed, ale nijak v\u00fdrazn\u011b. V\u010dera se proti nim ozval\u00a0pouze velvyslanec Ruska v Belgii Denis Gon\u010dar, tedy osoba ani ne IV. politick\u00e9 kategorie<\/a>, a ten pouze vyhro\u017eoval dal\u0161\u00edm roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00edm seznamu z\u00e1padn\u00edch zem\u00ed, kter\u00e9 vyr\u00e1b\u011bj\u00ed ty zbran\u011b, kter\u00e9 Zelenskyj od leto\u0161n\u00edho jara vyst\u0159eluje do Ruska. Nicm\u00e9n\u011b i toto varov\u00e1n\u00ed ukazuje, \u017ee hranice rusk\u00e9 tolerance v\u016f\u010di t\u011bm zem\u00ed Z\u00e1padu, kter\u00e9 jsou kvazi-\u00fa\u010dastn\u00edky v\u00e1lky Ruska s Ukrajinou, a spol\u00e9haj\u00ed se, \u017ee na n\u011b Rusko v odvet\u011b neude\u0159\u00ed, se pomalu vy\u010derp\u00e1v\u00e1.<\/p>\n

Michael Svato\u0161<\/a><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

V\u00e1lka na Ukrajin\u011b a v\u010derej\u0161\u00ed progn\u00f3za jej\u00edho jist\u00e9ho v\u00edt\u011bze od \u201cnereformovateln\u00e9 NeoConky\u201d Anny Appelbaum. Od…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":108515,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[6],"tags":[1042,158,26,40],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/108514"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=108514"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/108514\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/108515"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=108514"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=108514"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=108514"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}