{"id":108486,"date":"2026-06-11T00:34:38","date_gmt":"2026-06-10T22:34:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=108486"},"modified":"2026-06-10T21:40:59","modified_gmt":"2026-06-10T19:40:59","slug":"tyler-durden-5-budoucich-scenaru-pro-iran-po-konfliktu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/06\/11\/tyler-durden-5-budoucich-scenaru-pro-iran-po-konfliktu\/","title":{"rendered":"Tyler Durden: 5 budouc\u00edch sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159\u016f pro \u00cdr\u00e1n po konfliktu"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b existuje v\u00edce ne\u017e p\u011bt sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159\u016f, kter\u00e9 by si \u00cdr\u00e1nci mohli vybrat, pokud by se nep\u0159\u00e1telstv\u00ed zm\u00edrnilo,<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0ale n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00edch p\u011bt viz\u00ed p\u0159edstavuje cesty, kter\u00fdmi by se \u00cdr\u00e1n mohl letos vydat. Vznikne v roce 2026 T\u0159et\u00ed isl\u00e1msk\u00e1 republika po Prvn\u00ed (1979\u20131989) a Druh\u00e9 (1989\u20132026)? O v\u00fdsledku t\u00e9to t\u0159et\u00ed f\u00e1ze v\u00fdvoje, kter\u00e1 m\u016f\u017ee, ale nemus\u00ed b\u00fdt poh\u00e1n\u011bna n\u00e1bo\u017eensk\u00fdmi osobnostmi, m\u016f\u017eeme pouze spekulovat.<\/span><\/p>\n

Zaprv\u00e9,<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0v nestabiln\u00ed situaci v \u00cdr\u00e1nu\u00a0<\/span>p\u016fsob\u00ed mnoho sil<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0. Jakmile se situace usad\u00ed,\u00a0<\/span>\u00cdr\u00e1n by se mohl jednodu\u0161e vr\u00e1tit ke stejn\u00e9 rutin\u011b, kterou dodr\u017euje od roku 1979.<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0Na vrcholu pyramidy by mohl b\u00fdt nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed v\u016fdce Mod\u017et\u00e1ba Chamene\u00ed, zat\u00edmco prezident Mas\u00fad Peze\u0161kijan a \u010dlenov\u00e9 Shrom\u00e1\u017ed\u011bn\u00ed expert\u016f, kabinetu, soudnictv\u00ed, Rady gardy a parlamentu z\u0159ejm\u011b z\u016fst\u00e1vaj\u00ed v\u011brn\u00ed ideologii militantn\u00edho \u0161\u00editsk\u00e9ho isl\u00e1mu. V\u00edce ne\u017e 80 procent \u00cdr\u00e1nc\u016f jsou \u0161\u00edit\u00e9, zat\u00edmco zbytek jsou stoupenci sunnitsk\u00e9ho isl\u00e1mu, bah\u00e1jsk\u00e9 v\u00edry, k\u0159es\u0165anstv\u00ed a mezin\u00e1bo\u017eensk\u00fdch v\u011b\u0159\u00edc\u00edch.<\/span><\/p>\n

V tomto sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159i by ob\u00e1van\u00e9 Isl\u00e1msk\u00e9 revolu\u010dn\u00ed gardy (IRGC) nad\u00e1le dominovaly jako paraleln\u00ed s\u00edla k \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fdm N\u00e1rodn\u00edm ozbrojen\u00fdm sil\u00e1m (Artesh)<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0, kter\u00e9 jsou nyn\u00ed tak\u00e9 pln\u011b pod kontrolou Isl\u00e1msk\u00e9 republiky. Podobn\u011b jako utla\u010duj\u00edc\u00ed b\u00fdval\u00fd Muchabarat (vnit\u0159n\u00ed zpravodajsk\u00e1\/bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed slu\u017eba) v Ir\u00e1ku za Sadd\u00e1ma Husajna a dynastie Asad\u016f v S\u00fdrii, IRGC m\u00e1 vn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed i vnit\u0159n\u00ed slo\u017eku a uplat\u0148uje svou vlastn\u00ed verzi spravedlnosti doma i v zahrani\u010d\u00ed. \u00cdr\u00e1nci by byli op\u011bt nuceni neust\u00e1le se ohl\u00ed\u017eet p\u0159es rameno a cenzurovat sv\u00e9 vlastn\u00ed \u010diny. Re\u017eim by obnovil sv\u016fj vojensk\u00fd arzen\u00e1l, financoval zahrani\u010dn\u00ed teroristick\u00e9 agenty a manipuloval s Hormuzsk\u00fdm pr\u016flivem prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm inspekc\u00ed a m\u00fdtn\u00e9ho.<\/span><\/p>\n

D\u00e1le, pokud konflikt skon\u010d\u00ed a bude dodr\u017eeno p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed, by zem\u011b mohla proj\u00edt balkanizac\u00ed.<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0\u00cdr\u00e1n m\u00e1 velkou populaci Baloch\u016f, Kurd\u016f, Turkmen\u016f a dal\u0161\u00edch etnick\u00fdch skupin, kter\u00e9 budou soupe\u0159it o obranu sv\u00fdch vlastn\u00edch z\u00e1jm\u016f v zemi rozd\u011blen\u00e9 omezen\u00fdm ekonomick\u00fdm kol\u00e1\u010dem. Obnova vojensk\u00e9ho arzen\u00e1lu po m\u011bs\u00edc\u00edch devastace bude pro re\u017eim obt\u00ed\u017en\u00e1.<\/span><\/p>\n

Za t\u0159et\u00ed, \u00cdr\u00e1n po k\u0159ehk\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed a kyvadlov\u00e9 diplomacii sklouzne do ob\u010dansk\u00e9 v\u00e1lky.<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0Existuj\u00ed paralely mezi sou\u010dasnou situac\u00ed v \u00cdr\u00e1nu a S\u00fdri\u00ed za vl\u00e1dy Ba\u0161\u00e1ra Asada (2000\u20132024). Oba paranoidn\u00ed re\u017eimy m\u011bly jen malou d\u016fv\u011bru ve schopnost vlastn\u00edch ob\u010dan\u016f zvl\u00e1dat svobodu a p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitosti. Ba\u0161\u00e1r byl mnohem brut\u00e1ln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e jeho otec H\u00e1fiz Asad (1971\u20132000) a jeho tvrd\u00e9 potla\u010den\u00ed protest\u016f uvrhlo S\u00fdrii do t\u0159in\u00e1ctilet\u00e9 (2011\u20132024) ob\u010dansk\u00e9 v\u00e1lky.<\/span><\/p>\n

Mojt\u00e1ba Chamene\u00ed se zd\u00e1 b\u00fdt je\u0161t\u011b nekompromisn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e jeho otec a jako nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed v\u016fdce by se sna\u017eil potla\u010dit v\u0161echny hlasy obhajuj\u00edc\u00ed demokracii a spravedlnost. Jeho \u00fazk\u00e9 vazby na IRGC by pomohly vydl\u00e1\u017edit cestu k rozs\u00e1hl\u00fdm repres\u00edm. V\u00fdsledek t\u00e9to ob\u010dansk\u00e9 v\u00e1lky by bylo obt\u00ed\u017en\u00e9 p\u0159edv\u00eddat, vzhledem k tomu, \u017ee \u00cdr\u00e1n m\u00e1 mnohem v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed populaci ne\u017e S\u00fdrie a \u017ee v n\u011bkolika m\u011bstsk\u00fdch oblastech se pravideln\u011b oz\u00fdvaj\u00ed v\u00fdzvy k ob\u010dansk\u00fdm a ekonomick\u00fdm reform\u00e1m.<\/span><\/p>\n

Za \u010dtvrt\u00e9: Pokud vstoup\u00ed v platnost p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed a obnov\u00ed se voln\u00fd obchod p\u0159es Hormuzsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv, ohl\u00e9dnou se \u00cdr\u00e1nci za minulost\u00ed, aby se z n\u00ed pou\u010dili pro budov\u00e1n\u00ed lep\u0161\u00ed budoucnosti?<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0Odm\u00edtnou excesy Isl\u00e1msk\u00e9 republiky a budou usilovat o vytvo\u0159en\u00ed v\u00edce ekonomick\u00fdch p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitost\u00ed a rovnosti pro \u017eeny? Zd\u00e1 se, \u017ee velk\u00e1 \u010d\u00e1st \u00cdr\u00e1nc\u016f by dala p\u0159ednost exilov\u00fdm v\u016fdc\u016fm diaspory, jako je korunn\u00ed princ Reza Pahlav\u00ed, jako p\u0159echodn\u00e9 postav\u011b, kter\u00e1 by pomohla vnit\u0159n\u00edm reform\u00e1tor\u016fm s vytvo\u0159en\u00edm reprezentativn\u00ed vl\u00e1dy. Brut\u00e1ln\u00ed IRGC by se samoz\u0159ejm\u011b pokusila ma\u0159it jak\u00e9koli reformn\u00ed hnut\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Za p\u00e1t\u00e9: Tento posledn\u00ed sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 nab\u00edz\u00ed ur\u010ditou nad\u011bji. Jsou zbytky veden\u00ed Isl\u00e1msk\u00e9 republiky schopny odvr\u00e1tit se od permanentn\u00edho konfliktu? Intenzivn\u00ed jedn\u00e1n\u00ed s r\u016fzn\u00fdmi z\u00e1jmov\u00fdmi skupinami by mohla v\u00e9st k pr\u016flomu sm\u011brem k mo\u017en\u00e9mu m\u00edru a bezpe\u010dnosti. M\u00edsto pouh\u00e9ho tvrzen\u00ed o z\u00e1sadn\u00edch reform\u00e1ch by \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 veden\u00ed souhlasilo s poskytnut\u00edm v\u011bt\u0161\u00edch svobod \u017een\u00e1m, uspo\u0159\u00e1d\u00e1n\u00edm otev\u0159en\u00fdch voleb a podporou hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9ho r\u016fstu.<\/span><\/p>\n

To by zahrnovalo i zru\u0161en\u00ed fale\u0161n\u00fdch soud\u016f, kter\u00e9 up\u00edraj\u00ed zat\u010den\u00fdm \u00cdr\u00e1nc\u016fm jejich pr\u00e1va.<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0A\u010dkoli \u00cdr\u00e1n nem\u00e1 \u017e\u00e1dnou demokratickou historii, mohly by b\u00fdt v tomto sm\u011bru podniknuty postupn\u00e9, mal\u00e9 kroky v z\u00e1jmu budouc\u00ed prosperity a bezpe\u010dnosti zem\u011b. Re\u017eim by byl ochoten p\u0159estat financovat zahrani\u010dn\u00ed teroristick\u00e9 agenty, uvolnit p\u016fl tuny obohacen\u00e9ho uranu ze sv\u00fdch podzemn\u00edch sklad\u016f, zastavit v\u00fdrobu raket dlouh\u00e9ho doletu a otev\u0159\u00edt Hormuzsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv glob\u00e1ln\u00edmu obchodu.<\/span><\/p>\n

V tomto sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159i je mo\u017en\u00e9, \u017ee by b\u00fdval\u00ed prezidenti Mahm\u00fad Ahmad\u00edne\u017e\u00e1d, Muhammad Ch\u00e1tam\u00ed a Hasan R\u00fah\u00e1n\u00ed byli konzultov\u00e1ni ohledn\u011b reforem, kter\u00e9 d\u0159\u00edve parlament a nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed v\u016fdce zam\u00edtli. Mohla by doj\u00edt k postupn\u00e9 normalizaci vztah\u016f s Izraelem a dal\u0161\u00edmi st\u00e1ty v regionu, a\u010dkoli podpis Abrahamov\u00fdch dohod by pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b p\u0159edstavoval zna\u010dnou v\u00fdzvu.\u00a0<\/span>Pokud by tato p\u00e1t\u00e1 mo\u017enost selhala, \u00cdr\u00e1n by mohl b\u00fdt odsouzen k opakov\u00e1n\u00ed historie.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

N\u00e1zory vyj\u00e1d\u0159en\u00e9 v tomto \u010dl\u00e1nku jsou n\u00e1zory autora a nemus\u00ed nutn\u011b odr\u00e1\u017eet n\u00e1zory den\u00edku The Epoch Times.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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Zdroj<\/span><\/a><\/span><\/h3>\n

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Pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b existuje v\u00edce ne\u017e p\u011bt sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159\u016f, kter\u00e9 by si \u00cdr\u00e1nci mohli vybrat, pokud by se…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":106148,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,38,2562,40],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/108486"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=108486"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/108486\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/106148"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=108486"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=108486"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=108486"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}