{"id":108226,"date":"2026-06-08T00:13:02","date_gmt":"2026-06-07T22:13:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=108226"},"modified":"2026-06-04T18:08:29","modified_gmt":"2026-06-04T16:08:29","slug":"pepe-escobar-o-udajne-iranske-atomove-bombe","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/06\/08\/pepe-escobar-o-udajne-iranske-atomove-bombe\/","title":{"rendered":"Pepe Escobar o \u00fadajn\u00e9 \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 atomov\u00e9 bomb\u011b"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"fb-root\"><\/div>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">V nejnov\u011bj\u0161\u00ed epizod\u011b po\u0159adu \u201eJudging Freedom\u201c hovo\u0159il brazilsk\u00fd novin\u00e1\u0159 a geopolitick\u00fd analytik Pepe Escobar s moder\u00e1torem, soudcem Andrewem Napolitanem, o kontroverzn\u00edm tvrzen\u00ed, kter\u00e9 by mohlo z\u00e1sadn\u011b zm\u011bnit strategickou rovnov\u00e1hu na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b: \u00cdr\u00e1n ji\u017e mo\u017en\u00e1 vlastn\u00ed rozm\u00edstitelnou jadernou bombu. Konverzace se to\u010d\u00ed kolem \u00fadajn\u00fdch zpravodajsk\u00fdch informac\u00ed, diplomatick\u00fdch zpr\u00e1v mezi Teher\u00e1nem a Isl\u00e1m\u00e1b\u00e1dem a ot\u00e1zky, zda je Isl\u00e1msk\u00e1 republika na pokraji opu\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed sv\u00e9 desetilet\u00ed trvaj\u00edc\u00ed politiky jadern\u00e9 nejednozna\u010dnosti.<\/span><\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\"><iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"Pepe Escobar: M\u00e1 \u00cdr\u00e1n bombu? 1. \u010d\u00e1st\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/18iA0spc_-A?feature=oembed\" width=\"800\" height=\"450\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\" data-mce-fragment=\"1\"><\/iframe><\/div>\n<\/figure>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span dir=\"auto\">Tvrzen\u00ed s explozivn\u00edm potenci\u00e1lem<\/span><\/h3>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Escobar vysv\u011btluje, \u017ee spolupracuje s b\u00fdval\u00fdm analytikem CIA Larrym Johnsonem na nov\u00e9m analytick\u00e9m projektu s n\u00e1zvem \u201ePower Shift\u201c. V r\u00e1mci t\u00e9to pr\u00e1ce narazili na informace, kter\u00e9 si podle sv\u00fdch slov n\u011bkolikr\u00e1t ov\u011b\u0159ili. Escobar opakovan\u011b zd\u016fraz\u0148uje, \u017ee byl zpo\u010d\u00e1tku extr\u00e9mn\u011b skeptick\u00fd a nechal si sv\u00e9 zdroje opakovan\u011b prov\u011b\u0159ovat. Teprve po opakovan\u00fdch potvrzen\u00edch informace zve\u0159ejnil.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">J\u00e1drem cel\u00e9 z\u00e1le\u017eitosti je telefonick\u00fd rozhovor mezi \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fdm prezidentem Mas\u00fadem Peseschkianem a p\u00e1kist\u00e1nsk\u00fdm premi\u00e9rem \u0160ehb\u00e1zem \u0160ar\u00edfem z 28. kv\u011btna. Podle Escobara P\u00e1kist\u00e1n v sou\u010dasnosti vystupuje jako nejd\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00ed prost\u0159edn\u00edk mezi Washingtonem a Teher\u00e1nem. Rozhovor proto \u00fadajn\u011b obsahoval p\u0159\u00edm\u00fd vzkaz B\u00edl\u00e9mu domu.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span dir=\"auto\">\u00cdr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 t\u0159\u00edstup\u0148ov\u00e9 ultim\u00e1tum<\/span><\/h3>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Podle Escobarov\u00fdch zdroj\u016f poslal Peseschkian p\u00e1kist\u00e1nsk\u00e9 hlav\u011b vl\u00e1dy t\u0159\u00edstup\u0148ov\u00e9 ultim\u00e1tum, kter\u00e9 m\u011blo b\u00fdt okam\u017eit\u011b postoupeno Washingtonu.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Prvn\u00ed bod byl jasn\u00fd: dokud budou trvat sou\u010dasn\u00e9 konflikty a vojensk\u00e9 st\u0159ety, nebudou k \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fdm nov\u00fdm jadern\u00fdm jedn\u00e1n\u00edm doch\u00e1zet. Teher\u00e1n po\u017eaduje nejprve ukon\u010den\u00ed v\u00e1lek a vojensk\u00e9 eskalace. Teprve pot\u00e9 lze diskutovat o dal\u0161\u00edch kroc\u00edch.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Druh\u00fd bod se t\u00fdk\u00e1 budouc\u00ed struktury potenci\u00e1ln\u00edch jedn\u00e1n\u00ed. Podle Escobara \u00cdr\u00e1n odm\u00edt\u00e1 jak\u00e9koli op\u011btovn\u00e9 projedn\u00e1n\u00ed nebo oslabenou verzi jadern\u00e9 dohody JCPOA. Teher\u00e1n si nep\u0159eje n\u00e1vrat k p\u0159edchoz\u00edm model\u016fm dohod, ale po\u017eaduje nejprve z\u00e1sadn\u00ed zm\u011bny politick\u00e9ho r\u00e1mce.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">T\u0159et\u00ed bod je skute\u010dnou senzac\u00ed. Pokud by tlak USA nad\u00e1le s\u00edlil, \u00cdr\u00e1n by mohl odp\u00e1lit jadern\u00e9 za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed na sv\u00e9m vlastn\u00edm \u00fazem\u00ed \u2013 ne jako v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00fd akt, ale jako demonstraci sv\u00fdch schopnost\u00ed a odstra\u0161uj\u00edc\u00ed s\u00edly.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span dir=\"auto\">Vlastn\u00ed \u00cdr\u00e1n u\u017e jadernou bombu?<\/span><\/h3>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e1 ot\u00e1zka rozhovoru zn\u00ed: Znamen\u00e1 tato zpr\u00e1va, \u017ee \u00cdr\u00e1n ji\u017e m\u00e1 atomovou bombu?<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Escobar vysv\u011btlil, \u017ee jeho zdroje neposkytly podrobnosti o p\u016fvodu, konstrukci ani po\u010dtu potenci\u00e1ln\u00edch v\u00fdbu\u0161n\u00fdch za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed. Prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9ho prezidenta v\u0161ak nazna\u010dovalo, \u017ee takov\u00e1 schopnost existuje.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Escobar z toho vyvodil logick\u00fd z\u00e1v\u011br: pokud by \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fd prezident v diplomatick\u00e9m rozhovoru pohrozil jadernou demonstrac\u00ed, pak by toto prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed muselo b\u00fdt p\u0159edem schv\u00e1leno nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00edm politick\u00fdm a n\u00e1bo\u017eensk\u00fdm veden\u00edm zem\u011b. Podle jeho n\u00e1zoru by takov\u00e9 sd\u011blen\u00ed mohlo b\u00fdt p\u0159edneseno pouze se souhlasem nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00edho v\u016fdce nebo jeho nejbli\u017e\u0161\u00edho okruhu.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span dir=\"auto\">Odkud mohla ta bomba vzl\u00e9tnout?<\/span><\/h3>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Kdy\u017e se Napolitano zeptal, jak mohl \u00cdr\u00e1n takovou zbra\u0148 z\u00edskat, Escobar zm\u00ednil n\u011bkolik mo\u017en\u00fdch sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Jednou z mo\u017enost\u00ed je, \u017ee \u00edr\u00e1n\u0161t\u00ed v\u011bdci vyvinuli technologii sami. Zd\u016fraz\u0148uje, \u017ee \u00cdr\u00e1n m\u00e1 vysoce kvalifikovan\u00e9 fyziky a in\u017een\u00fdry a je v z\u00e1sad\u011b schopen takov\u00fd program realizovat samostatn\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">D\u00e1le zmi\u0148uje t\u0159i mo\u017en\u00e9 extern\u00ed podporovatele:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span dir=\"auto\">Rusko<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span dir=\"auto\">P\u00e1kist\u00e1n<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span dir=\"auto\">Severn\u00ed Korea<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Obzvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b zaj\u00edmav\u00e9 pro n\u011bj bylo severokorejsk\u00e9 spojen\u00ed. B\u011bhem sv\u00fdch \u010detn\u00fdch cest do Teher\u00e1nu pravideln\u011b pozoroval vysoce postaven\u00e9 severokorejsk\u00e9 delegace. I kdy\u017e nikdy ve\u0159ejn\u011b nepromluvily, jejich p\u0159\u00edtomnost byla n\u00e1padn\u011b \u010dast\u00e1. Escobar se domn\u00edval, \u017ee by to mohlo nazna\u010dovat dlouhodobou technickou spolupr\u00e1ci.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">D\u016fle\u017eitou roli hraje i P\u00e1kist\u00e1n. Escobar ozn\u00e1mil, \u017ee on a Larry Johnson hodlaj\u00ed v pozd\u011bj\u0161\u00ed publikaci podrobn\u011bji rozv\u00e9st \u00fadajn\u00e9 desetilet\u00ed trvaj\u00edc\u00ed vazby mezi p\u00e1kist\u00e1nsk\u00fdm a \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fdm jadern\u00fdm programem.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span dir=\"auto\">Konec jadern\u00e9 nejednozna\u010dnosti?<\/span><\/h3>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Pokud jsou informace p\u0159esn\u00e9, m\u011blo by to dalekos\u00e1hl\u00e9 d\u016fsledky pro mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed syst\u00e9m ne\u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed jadern\u00fdch zbran\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">\u00cdr\u00e1n se po cel\u00e1 desetilet\u00ed pohyboval v \u0161ed\u00e9 z\u00f3n\u011b: \u200b\u200bZem\u011b trv\u00e1 na tom, \u017ee se nesna\u017e\u00ed o jadern\u00e9 zbran\u011b, p\u0159esto disponuje rozs\u00e1hlou jadernou infrastrukturou a technick\u00fdmi mo\u017enostmi. Ve\u0159ejn\u00e1 demonstrace jadern\u00e9 bomby by tuto nejednozna\u010dnost n\u00e1hle ukon\u010dila.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Escobar proto interpretuje \u00fadajn\u00e9 Teher\u00e1nsk\u00e9 poselstv\u00ed jako varov\u00e1n\u00ed: Pokud USA nebo Izrael p\u0159ekro\u010d\u00ed ur\u010dit\u00e9 \u010derven\u00e9 linie, \u00cdr\u00e1n by mohl otev\u0159en\u011b demonstrovat sv\u00e9 schopnosti a t\u00edm vytvo\u0159it nezvratn\u00e9 skute\u010dnosti.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span dir=\"auto\">Kolik bomb by mohl \u00cdr\u00e1n vlastnit?<\/span><\/h3>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Dal\u0161\u00ed ot\u00e1zka se t\u00fdk\u00e1 mo\u017en\u00e9ho po\u010dtu jadern\u00fdch hlavic.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Escobar p\u0159ipou\u0161t\u00ed, \u017ee k tomu neexistuj\u00ed \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 spolehliv\u00e9 informace. Z\u00e1rove\u0148 tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee st\u00e1t by jen st\u011b\u017e\u00ed promrhal svou jedinou bombu na demonstraci. Pokud by byl \u00cdr\u00e1n skute\u010dn\u011b p\u0159ipraven na takovou demonstraci s\u00edly, mohlo by to nazna\u010dovat, \u017ee vlastn\u00ed v\u00edce ne\u017e jen jedno v\u00fdbu\u0161n\u00e9 za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Escobar v\u0161ak neposkytuje \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 d\u016fkazy. Opakovan\u011b zd\u016fraz\u0148uje, \u017ee mnoho z\u00e1v\u011br\u016f je v sou\u010dasnosti zalo\u017eeno v\u00fdhradn\u011b na nep\u0159\u00edm\u00fdch d\u016fkazech a tvrzen\u00edch jeho zdroj\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span dir=\"auto\">N\u00e1bo\u017eensk\u00e1 p\u0159ek\u00e1\u017eka<\/span><\/h3>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Escobarova anal\u00fdza n\u00e1bo\u017eensk\u00e9ho rozm\u011bru je obzvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b zaj\u00edmav\u00e1.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">\u00cdr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 veden\u00ed se ji\u017e l\u00e9ta odvol\u00e1v\u00e1 na fatvy b\u00fdval\u00fdch nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00edch v\u016fdc\u016f, kter\u00e9 uv\u00e1d\u011bj\u00ed, \u017ee jadern\u00e9 zbran\u011b jsou neslu\u010diteln\u00e9 s isl\u00e1msk\u00fdmi principy, proto\u017ee by mohly bez rozd\u00edlu zab\u00edjet civilisty.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Escobar v\u0161ak poukazuje na to, \u017ee v \u00cdr\u00e1nu se nyn\u00ed otev\u0159en\u011b diskutuje o p\u0159ehodnocen\u00ed t\u00e9to doktr\u00edny. Podle jeho n\u00e1zoru se vzhledem k rostouc\u00edm vojensk\u00fdm hrozb\u00e1m objevil \u0161irok\u00fd konsenzus, \u017ee \u00cdr\u00e1n mus\u00ed p\u0159ehodnotit svou jadernou strategii.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Pokud by veden\u00ed skute\u010dn\u011b bylo p\u0159ipraveno tento krok podniknout, p\u0159edstavovalo by to jedno z nejv\u00fdznamn\u011bj\u0161\u00edch strategick\u00fdch rozhodnut\u00ed od isl\u00e1msk\u00e9 revoluce.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span dir=\"auto\">Trump, Netanjahu a Libanon<\/span><\/h3>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Druh\u00e1 \u010d\u00e1st rozhovoru se zam\u011b\u0159uje na nap\u011bt\u00ed mezi Donaldem Trumpem a izraelsk\u00fdm premi\u00e9rem Benjaminem Netanjahuem.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Napolitano odkazuje na zpr\u00e1vy, \u017ee Trump \u00fadajn\u011b v telefon\u00e1tu pou\u017eil v\u016f\u010di Netanjahuovi neobvykle ostr\u00fd jazyk. Zat\u00edmco Escobar pova\u017euje \u010d\u00e1st ve\u0159ejn\u00e9ho p\u0159edstaven\u00ed za politick\u00e9 divadlo, poukazuje na to, \u017ee Trump s\u00e1m pozd\u011bji existenci hovoru potvrdil.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Escobar je obzvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b znepokojen situac\u00ed v ji\u017en\u00edm Libanonu. Domn\u00edv\u00e1 se, \u017ee je tam sv\u011bdkem v\u00fdvoje, kter\u00fd naz\u00fdv\u00e1 \u201eGaza 2.0\u201c. Zni\u010den\u00e9 pohrani\u010dn\u00ed vesnice u\u017e vid\u011bl na p\u0159edchoz\u00edch cest\u00e1ch a tento vzorec se nyn\u00ed opakuje. Cel\u00e9 vesnice jsou ni\u010deny a civiln\u00ed obyvatelstvo v d\u016fsledku vojensk\u00fdch operac\u00ed masivn\u011b trp\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span dir=\"auto\">P\u0159\u00edb\u011bh s glob\u00e1ln\u00edmi d\u016fsledky<\/span><\/h3>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Zda \u00cdr\u00e1n skute\u010dn\u011b vlastn\u00ed rozm\u00edstitelnou jadernou bombu, z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 nepotvrzeno. S\u00e1m Escobar p\u0159izn\u00e1v\u00e1, \u017ee dosud neexistuje ani ofici\u00e1ln\u00ed potvrzen\u00ed, ani nez\u00e1visl\u00e9 d\u016fkazy.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Rozhovor nicm\u00e9n\u011b jasn\u011b ukazuje, jak napjat\u00e1 se strategick\u00e1 situace stala. Pokud by se by\u0165 jen \u010d\u00e1st prezentovan\u00fdch informac\u00ed uk\u00e1zala jako pravdiv\u00e1, sv\u011bt by mohl \u010delit z\u00e1sadn\u00edmu posunu v rovnov\u00e1ze sil na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b \u2013 s d\u016fsledky pro USA, Izrael, Rusko, \u010c\u00ednu a cel\u00fd mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed syst\u00e9m.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Escobarovo \u00fast\u0159edn\u00ed poselstv\u00ed proto zn\u00ed: Skute\u010dnou ot\u00e1zkou u\u017e mo\u017en\u00e1 nen\u00ed, zda \u00cdr\u00e1n m\u00e1 technick\u00e9 schopnosti \u2013 ale zda se politick\u00e9 veden\u00ed rozhodlo tyto schopnosti v budoucnu otev\u0159en\u011b demonstrovat.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-1185\" src=\"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/kuryr-podpis.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"84\" height=\"24\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>V nejnov\u011bj\u0161\u00ed epizod\u011b po\u0159adu \u201eJudging Freedom\u201c hovo\u0159il brazilsk\u00fd novin\u00e1\u0159 a geopolitick\u00fd analytik Pepe Escobar s&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":105963,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,38,3179,1052],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/108226"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=108226"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/108226\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/105963"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=108226"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=108226"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=108226"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}