{"id":108183,"date":"2026-06-06T00:12:37","date_gmt":"2026-06-05T22:12:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=108183"},"modified":"2026-06-05T07:52:37","modified_gmt":"2026-06-05T05:52:37","slug":"250-dolaru-za-barel-ropy-a-11-inflace-nejhorsi-mozny-scenar-pro-rok-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/06\/06\/250-dolaru-za-barel-ropy-a-11-inflace-nejhorsi-mozny-scenar-pro-rok-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"250 dolar\u016f za barel ropy a 11% inflace \u2013 nejhor\u0161\u00ed mo\u017en\u00fd sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 pro rok 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"fb-root\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-1fb4c2c elementor-widget elementor-widget-theme-post-content\" data-id=\"1fb4c2c\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"theme-post-content.default\">\n<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Spr\u00e1vce aktiv a finan\u010dn\u00ed analytik z Wall Street Ed Dowd ze spole\u010dnosti PhinanceTechnologies.com za\u010d\u00e1tkem dubna varoval, \u017ee ekonomika ji\u017e sl\u00e1bne. \u0158ekl: \u201eProbl\u00e9my se soukrom\u00fdmi \u00fav\u011bry kon\u010d\u00ed ve\u010d\u00edrek.\u201c Jen p\u0159ed deseti dny BlackRock a dal\u0161\u00ed soukrom\u00e9 \u00fav\u011brov\u00e9 spole\u010dnosti zmrazily pen\u00edze investor\u016f kv\u016fli vln\u011b spl\u00e1cen\u00ed dluhopis\u016f. Dowd to p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u011bl a sl\u00e1bnouc\u00ed ekonomika se v dohledn\u00e9 dob\u011b nezlep\u0161\u00ed. Pokud jste si mysleli, \u017ee soukrom\u00e9 \u00fav\u011bry jsou pro ekonomiku brzdou, v\u00e1lka s \u00cdr\u00e1nem bude skute\u010dnou bolest\u00ed hlavy. Dowd \u0159\u00edk\u00e1: \u201e\u010c\u00edm d\u00e9le tato situace trv\u00e1, t\u00edm je pravd\u011bpodobn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, \u017ee cena ropy bude nad\u00e1le r\u016fst. M\u00e1me dva sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e: V prvn\u00edm dos\u00e1hne cena ropy vrcholu 125 dolar\u016f a situace se vy\u0159e\u0161\u00ed do kv\u011btna. Inflace by dos\u00e1hla vrcholu kolem 5 %. . . . Nyn\u00ed jsme v bod\u011b, kdy by ceny ropy mohly d\u00e1le r\u016fst, pokud se situace brzy nevy\u0159e\u0161\u00ed. . . . M\u00e1me druh\u00fd sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159, ve kter\u00e9m cena ropy vzroste na 200 a\u017e 250 dolar\u016f za barel, co\u017e byl n\u00e1\u0161 nejhor\u0161\u00ed sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159. Pokud k tomu dojde, inflace podle na\u0161ich model\u016f dos\u00e1hne vrcholu kolem 11 %. . . .\u201c<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Martin Armstrong p\u0159ed dv\u011bma t\u00fddny prohl\u00e1sil, \u017ee ceny benzinu by mohly vzr\u016fst na 9 dolar\u016f za galon. Dowd s Armstrongem souhlas\u00ed a \u0159\u00edk\u00e1, \u017ee v nejhor\u0161\u00edm p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b by ceny mohly dos\u00e1hnout 10 dolar\u016f za galon. Dowd dod\u00e1v\u00e1: \u201eP\u0159edpokl\u00e1d\u00e1m, \u017ee cena ropy p\u016fjde mnohem v\u00fd\u0161e, co\u017e zp\u016fsob\u00ed masivn\u00ed pokles popt\u00e1vky a recesi, kter\u00e1 podle m\u011b stejn\u011b p\u0159ijde. Bude je\u0161t\u011b hlub\u0161\u00ed, ne\u017e jsme p\u0159edpov\u00eddali. Zp\u016fsob\u00ed propou\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed a posune ekonomick\u00fd r\u016fst do recesn\u00edho p\u00e1sma. Ceny komodit se zhrout\u00ed, jakmile nastane deflace. \u0158e\u0161en\u00edm vysok\u00fdch cen komodit jsou vysok\u00e9 ceny komodit, proto\u017ee to vede k poklesu popt\u00e1vky.\u201c<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Co tedy ud\u011bl\u00e1 Fed? Dowd \u0159\u00edk\u00e1: \u201eFed by mohl zv\u00fd\u0161it sazby, aby bojoval s celkovou inflac\u00ed. M\u016fj nejlep\u0161\u00ed odhad je, \u017ee na \u010dervnov\u00e9m zased\u00e1n\u00ed FOMC neud\u011blaj\u00ed nic. Sazby rozhodn\u011b nesn\u00ed\u017e\u00ed, dokud nezaznamenaj\u00ed zpomalen\u00ed ekonomick\u00e9ho r\u016fstu&#8230; V z\u00e1vislosti na t\u00e9to v\u00e1lce&#8230; se skute\u010dn\u00e1 \u010d\u00e1st t\u00e9to ekonomiky, sektor bydlen\u00ed, neda\u0159\u00ed a hrout\u00ed se. Jen \u010dek\u00e1me, a\u017e bublina um\u011bl\u00e9 inteligence kone\u010dn\u011b praskne&#8230; brzy dos\u00e1hneme sv\u00e9ho vrcholu.\u201c<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Dowd z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 v dlouhodob\u00e9m horizontu optimistick\u00fd ohledn\u011b zlata a st\u0159\u00edbra, ale v kr\u00e1tkodob\u00e9m horizontu by mohlo doj\u00edt k prodeji za \u00fa\u010delem zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed likvidity, jak se to pr\u00e1v\u011b stalo Turecku. St\u0159\u00edbro bude kv\u016fli hroz\u00edc\u00ed deflaci \u010delit siln\u011bj\u0161\u00edm nep\u0159\u00edzniv\u00fdm vliv\u016fm ne\u017e zlato. Dowd nevid\u00ed \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 zlep\u0161en\u00ed v ekonomick\u00fdch probl\u00e9mech \u010c\u00edny. Dowd p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u011bl ekonomick\u00e9 probl\u00e9my \u010c\u00edny u\u017e p\u0159ed m\u011bs\u00edci a Wall Street se se \u0161patn\u00fdmi zpr\u00e1vami setk\u00e1v\u00e1 a\u017e nyn\u00ed. Dowd \u0159\u00edk\u00e1: \u201e\u010c\u00edna zaznamenala v prvn\u00edm \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed negativn\u00ed r\u016fst o 8 %.\u201c<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Dowd se pono\u0159uje do v\u00e1\u017en\u00fdch ekonomick\u00fdch probl\u00e9m\u016f, kter\u00fdm \u010c\u00edna \u010del\u00ed. Poukazuje na hlavn\u00ed probl\u00e9my na trhu s bydlen\u00edm a uv\u00e1d\u00ed, \u017ee je levn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed pronaj\u00edmat ne\u017e vlastnit d\u016fm. Dowd tak\u00e9 p\u0159edpov\u00edd\u00e1, \u017ee Fed bude nucen sn\u00ed\u017eit \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby za\u010d\u00e1tkem roku 2027 kv\u016fli siln\u00e9 deflaci.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Dowd na z\u00e1v\u011br \u0159\u00edk\u00e1: \u201eToto je norm\u00e1ln\u00ed \u00fav\u011brov\u00fd cyklus. \u00dav\u011brov\u00fd cyklus je star\u00fd a st\u00e1rne a my vid\u00edme, jak se v n\u011bm objevuj\u00ed trhliny, proto\u017ee situace se soukrom\u00fdmi \u00fav\u011bry je prakticky zmrazena. K tomuto r\u016fstu \u00fav\u011br\u016f do\u0161lo v letech 2024 a 2025.\u201c<\/span><\/p>\n<p><em><strong><span dir=\"auto\">Od Grega Huntera<\/span><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-8c57238 quelle dc-has-condition dc-condition-empty elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"8c57238\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n<h3 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\"><span style=\"font-size: 10pt;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/usawatchdog.com\/250-oil-11-inflation-worst-case-in-2026-ed-dowd\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\"><span dir=\"auto\">Zdroj<\/span><\/a><\/span><\/h3>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Spr\u00e1vce aktiv a finan\u010dn\u00ed analytik z Wall Street Ed Dowd ze spole\u010dnosti PhinanceTechnologies.com za\u010d\u00e1tkem dubna&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":105563,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,1872,310],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/108183"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=108183"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/108183\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/105563"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=108183"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=108183"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=108183"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}