{"id":108111,"date":"2026-06-04T00:24:52","date_gmt":"2026-06-03T22:24:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=108111"},"modified":"2026-06-03T14:47:26","modified_gmt":"2026-06-03T12:47:26","slug":"dlouha-valka-evropy-s-ruskem-dvousetlety-geopoliticky-vzorec-ktery-si-nikdo-neodvazuje-priznat","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/06\/04\/dlouha-valka-evropy-s-ruskem-dvousetlety-geopoliticky-vzorec-ktery-si-nikdo-neodvazuje-priznat\/","title":{"rendered":"Dlouh\u00e1 v\u00e1lka Evropy s Ruskem: Dvousetlet\u00fd geopolitick\u00fd vzorec, kter\u00fd si nikdo neodva\u017euje p\u0159iznat"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"fb-root\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-1fb4c2c elementor-widget elementor-widget-theme-post-content\" data-id=\"1fb4c2c\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"theme-post-content.default\">\n<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em><strong><span dir=\"auto\">Jak\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/em><span dir=\"auto\"><em><strong>je prob\u00edhaj\u00edc\u00ed konfrontace mezi Evropou a Ruskem ur\u010dena\u00a0<\/strong><\/em><\/span><em><strong><span dir=\"auto\">geografi\u00ed, alian\u010dn\u00ed politikou a struktur\u00e1ln\u00ed dynamikou soupe\u0159en\u00ed velmoc\u00ed .<\/span><\/strong><\/em><\/h4>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Existuje dlouh\u00e1 historick\u00e1 kontinuita evropsk\u00e9ho \u00fasil\u00ed o oslaben\u00ed, omezen\u00ed nebo zni\u010den\u00ed Ruska. To lze ch\u00e1pat nap\u0159\u00ed\u010d n\u011bkolika p\u0159ekr\u00fdvaj\u00edc\u00edmi se historick\u00fdmi \u00farovn\u011bmi. Tento v\u00fdvoj nep\u0159edstavuje jedinou koordinovanou strategii, ale sp\u00ed\u0161e opakuj\u00edc\u00ed se struktur\u00e1ln\u00ed vzorec v evropsko-rusk\u00fdch vztaz\u00edch, formovan\u00fd geografi\u00ed, mocenskou politikou, financemi a ideologi\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong><span dir=\"auto\">1. Intelektu\u00e1ln\u00ed z\u00e1klady strategick\u00e9ho my\u0161len\u00ed<\/span><\/strong><\/h2>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fdm intelektu\u00e1ln\u00edm vlivem v diskus\u00edch o dlouhodob\u00e9m evropsk\u00e9m geopolitick\u00e9m my\u0161len\u00ed je britsk\u00fd geograf Sir Halford J. Mackinder (1861\u20131947).<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Mackinder rozvinul\u00a0<\/span><strong><span dir=\"auto\">teorii Heartland<\/span><\/strong><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0, kterou poprv\u00e9 formuloval v roce 1904. Tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee centr\u00e1ln\u00ed pevnina Eurasie \u2013 zhruba odpov\u00eddaj\u00edc\u00ed Rusku a St\u0159edn\u00ed Asii \u2013 p\u0159edstavuje strategick\u00fd \u201eoto\u010dn\u00fd region\u201c glob\u00e1ln\u00ed moci.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Shrnul to ve sv\u00e9m slavn\u00e9m cit\u00e1tu:<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em><span dir=\"auto\">\u201eKdo ovl\u00e1d\u00e1 v\u00fdchodn\u00ed Evropu, ovl\u00e1d\u00e1 Srdce zem\u011b; kdo ovl\u00e1d\u00e1 Srdce zem\u011b, ovl\u00e1d\u00e1 Sv\u011btov\u00fd ostrov; kdo ovl\u00e1d\u00e1 Sv\u011btov\u00fd ostrov, ovl\u00e1d\u00e1 sv\u011bt.\u201c<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">V\u00fdsledn\u00fd strategick\u00fd d\u016fsledek, jak jej pozd\u011bji interpretovaly geopolitick\u00e9 my\u0161lenkov\u00e9 \u0161koly, je:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span dir=\"auto\">Kontrola nebo dominance v\u00fdchodn\u00ed Evropy a eurasijsk\u00e9ho vnitrozem\u00ed by umo\u017enila rozhoduj\u00edc\u00ed glob\u00e1ln\u00ed vliv.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span dir=\"auto\">Zabr\u00e1n\u011bn\u00ed konsolidaci jedin\u00e9ho akt\u00e9ra \u2013 zejm\u00e9na Ruska \u2013 nad Heartlandem se stalo opakuj\u00edc\u00edm se prvkem z\u00e1padn\u00edho strategick\u00e9ho my\u0161len\u00ed.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">A\u010dkoli Mackinder psal jako akademick\u00fd geograf a nikoli jako osoba s politick\u00fdmi rozhodnut\u00edmi, jeho my\u0161lenky ovlivnily geopolitick\u00e9 \u00favahy v Brit\u00e1nii a USA, stejn\u011b jako strategickou doktr\u00ednu studen\u00e9 v\u00e1lky, jej\u00edm\u017e c\u00edlem bylo zadr\u017eet a rozpustit Sov\u011btsk\u00fd svaz. V pozd\u011bj\u0161\u00edch desetilet\u00edch byly prvky tohoto r\u00e1mce \u010dasto \u2013 p\u0159\u00edmo \u010di nep\u0159\u00edmo \u2013 spojov\u00e1ny s \u00favahami zam\u011b\u0159en\u00fdmi na zadr\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed euroasijsk\u00fdch pozemn\u00edch mocnost\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong><span dir=\"auto\">2. Konflikty 19. a po\u010d\u00e1tku 20. stolet\u00ed a vn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed vlivy<\/span><\/strong><\/h2>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong><span dir=\"auto\">Napoleonsk\u00e9 v\u00e1lky<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Evropsk\u00e9 koalice se b\u011bhem napoleonsk\u00fdch v\u00e1lek opakovan\u011b mobilizovaly proti Rusk\u00e9 \u0159\u00ed\u0161i. Kampa\u0148 proti Rusku v roce 1812 se stala ur\u010duj\u00edc\u00edm momentem v kontinent\u00e1ln\u00ed v\u00e1lce a dlouhodob\u00e9m strategick\u00e9m soupe\u0159en\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong><span dir=\"auto\">Finan\u010dn\u00ed integrace v pozdn\u011b carsk\u00e9 \u0159\u00ed\u0161i<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Na konci 19. stolet\u00ed byla Rusk\u00e1 \u0159\u00ed\u0161e siln\u011b integrov\u00e1na do evropsk\u00fdch finan\u010dn\u00edch syst\u00e9m\u016f:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span dir=\"auto\">Pr\u016fmyslov\u00fd rozvoj Ruska byl financov\u00e1n francouzsk\u00fdm, britsk\u00fdm, n\u011bmeck\u00fdm a belgick\u00fdm kapit\u00e1lem.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span dir=\"auto\">\u017deleznice, t\u011b\u017eebn\u00ed pr\u016fmysl a t\u011b\u017ek\u00fd pr\u016fmysl byly siln\u011b z\u00e1visl\u00e9 na zahrani\u010dn\u00edch \u00fav\u011brech a investic\u00edch.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Jednalo se prim\u00e1rn\u011b o ekonomickou modernizaci a nikoli o koordinovanou destabilizaci, ale vedlo to ke struktur\u00e1ln\u00ed zranitelnosti v\u016f\u010di evropsk\u00fdm finan\u010dn\u00edm cykl\u016fm a politick\u00e9mu vlivu.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong><span dir=\"auto\">Rusko-japonsk\u00e1 v\u00e1lka (1904-1905)<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">A\u010dkoli se v\u00e1lka odehr\u00e1la mezi Ruskem a Japonskem, byla sou\u010d\u00e1st\u00ed glob\u00e1ln\u00ed rovnov\u00e1hy sil:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span dir=\"auto\">Japonsko t\u011b\u017eilo z\u00a0<\/span><strong><span dir=\"auto\">anglo-japonsk\u00e9 aliance (1902)<\/span><\/strong><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span dir=\"auto\">Rusko se ocitlo pod siln\u00fdm finan\u010dn\u00edm a logistick\u00fdm tlakem, \u010d\u00e1ste\u010dn\u011b kv\u016fli omezen\u00e9mu p\u0159\u00edstupu na mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed kapit\u00e1lov\u00e9 trhy.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong><span dir=\"auto\">Revolu\u010dn\u00ed f\u00e1ze (1900\u20131917) a vn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed zapleten\u00ed<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Z\u00e1v\u011bre\u010dn\u00e1 f\u00e1ze carsk\u00e9 \u0159\u00ed\u0161e se vyzna\u010dovala nestabilitou, revolu\u010dn\u00edmi hnut\u00edmi a ideologickou fragmentac\u00ed:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span dir=\"auto\">Marxistick\u00e9, socialistick\u00e9 a anarchistick\u00e9 skupiny p\u016fsobily v evropsk\u00fdch exilov\u00fdch s\u00edt\u00edch (mimo jin\u00e9 v \u017denev\u011b, Lond\u00fdn\u011b, Pa\u0159\u00ed\u017ei a Berl\u00edn\u011b).<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span dir=\"auto\">P\u0159edn\u00ed bol\u0161evici tr\u00e1vili del\u0161\u00ed dobu v evropsk\u00fdch m\u011bstech, kde organizovali a koordinovali politick\u00e9 aktivity.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong><span dir=\"auto\">N\u011bmeck\u00e1 v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e1 podpora 1917<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">B\u011bhem prvn\u00ed sv\u011btov\u00e9 v\u00e1lky:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span dir=\"auto\">N\u011bmeck\u00e1 \u0159\u00ed\u0161e usnadnila Lenin\u016fv n\u00e1vrat do Ruska v roce 1917 prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm takzvan\u00e9 \u201ecesty zape\u010det\u011bn\u00e9ho vlaku\u201c.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span dir=\"auto\">C\u00edlem byla strategick\u00e1 destabilizace Ruska a jeho odstoupen\u00ed z v\u00e1lky.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong><span dir=\"auto\">Diaspora a finan\u010dn\u00ed s\u00edt\u011b<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Revolu\u010dn\u00ed skupiny se tak\u00e9 spol\u00e9haly na:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span dir=\"auto\">soukrom\u00e9 dary od podporovatel\u016f<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span dir=\"auto\">Rusk\u00e9 exilov\u00e9 komunity<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span dir=\"auto\">ideologick\u00fdch podporovatel\u016f v Evrop\u011b a USA<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">A\u010dkoli byla rusk\u00e1 revoluce prim\u00e1rn\u011b poh\u00e1n\u011bna vnit\u0159n\u00edmi politick\u00fdmi, ekonomick\u00fdmi a soci\u00e1ln\u00edmi faktory, vn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed akt\u00e9\u0159i nehr\u00e1li jen vedlej\u0161\u00ed roli a m\u011bli na pr\u016fb\u011bh ud\u00e1lost\u00ed m\u011b\u0159iteln\u00fd vliv.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong><span dir=\"auto\">3. Studen\u00e1 v\u00e1lka<\/span><\/strong><\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li><span dir=\"auto\">Evropa a USA uplat\u0148ovaly strukturovan\u00e9\u00a0<\/span><strong><span dir=\"auto\">strategie zadr\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed<\/span><\/strong><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0, aby zadr\u017eely a zni\u010dily Sov\u011btsk\u00fd svaz.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span dir=\"auto\">NATO se stalo \u00fast\u0159edn\u00ed vojenskou alianc\u00ed v z\u00e1padn\u00ed Evrop\u011b; Var\u0161avsk\u00e1 smlouva vznikla pouze jako reakce na strukturu NATO vn\u00edmanou jako nep\u0159\u00e1telskou.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span dir=\"auto\">Sov\u011btsk\u00fd svaz a pozd\u011bji Rusko interpretovaly z\u00e1padn\u00ed aliance jako strategick\u00e9 obkl\u00ed\u010den\u00ed, co\u017e ve skute\u010dnosti byly.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span dir=\"auto\">Jadern\u00e9 odstra\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed se stalo stabiliza\u010dn\u00edm z\u00e1kladn\u00edm mechanismem pro zabr\u00e1n\u011bn\u00ed p\u0159\u00edm\u00e9 v\u00e1lce mezi velmocemi.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong><span dir=\"auto\">4. Expanze po studen\u00e9 v\u00e1lce<\/span><\/strong><\/h2>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Po rozpadu Sov\u011btsk\u00e9ho svazu a rozpu\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed Var\u0161avsk\u00e9 smlouvy:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span dir=\"auto\">NATO nebylo rozpu\u0161t\u011bno, ale m\u00edsto toho se, navzdory d\u0159\u00edv\u011bj\u0161\u00edmu slibu, \u017ee tak neu\u010din\u00ed, agresivn\u011b roz\u0161i\u0159ovalo na v\u00fdchod, co\u017e Rusko vn\u00edm\u00e1 jako existen\u010dn\u00ed hrozbu a \u2013 v kritick\u00fdch geopolitick\u00fdch interpretac\u00edch \u2013 jako hlavn\u00ed p\u0159\u00ed\u010dinu nejistoty a konfliktu.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span dir=\"auto\">Zru\u0161en\u00ed mechanism\u016f kontroly zbrojen\u00ed sn\u00ed\u017eilo p\u0159edv\u00eddatelnost evropsk\u00e9 bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed architektury.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span dir=\"auto\">N\u00e1vrhy na spole\u010dn\u00fd bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed \u0159\u00e1d mezi Evropou a Ruskem byly Z\u00e1padem odm\u00edtnuty.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span dir=\"auto\">Ukrajina se st\u00e1le v\u00edce st\u00e1vala n\u00e1razn\u00edkovou z\u00f3nou a pozd\u011bji \u00fast\u0159edn\u00edm geopolitick\u00fdm bodem konfliktu.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong><span dir=\"auto\">5. Aktu\u00e1ln\u00ed cyklus eskalace<\/span><\/strong><\/h2>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Sou\u010dasn\u00e1 f\u00e1ze je sp\u00ed\u0161e postupnou eskala\u010dn\u00ed dynamikou ne\u017e konven\u010dn\u00ed v\u00e1lkou mezi stejn\u011b siln\u00fdmi akt\u00e9ry:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span dir=\"auto\">Roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed ekonomick\u00fdch sankc\u00ed proti Rusku, de facto ekonomick\u00e1 v\u00e1lka<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span dir=\"auto\">Zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00e1 z\u00e1padn\u00ed vojensk\u00e1 pomoc Ukrajin\u011b a aktivn\u00ed \u00fa\u010dast v z\u00e1stupn\u00e9 v\u00e1lce, v\u010detn\u011b dod\u00e1vek dron\u016f \u2013 samotn\u00e1 Brit\u00e1nie ozn\u00e1mila dod\u00e1vku v\u00edce ne\u017e 100 000 dron\u016f \u2013 a podpory p\u0159i jejich programov\u00e1n\u00ed, zachycov\u00e1n\u00ed c\u00edl\u016f a opera\u010dn\u00edm \u0159\u00edzen\u00ed.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span dir=\"auto\">Zpr\u00e1vy o \u00fatoc\u00edch dron\u016f a raket na rusk\u00e9 \u00fazem\u00ed<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span dir=\"auto\">Tato opat\u0159en\u00ed jsou vn\u00edm\u00e1na jako postupn\u00e9 testov\u00e1n\u00ed prah\u016f eskalace.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Tato dynamika je \u010dasto metaforicky popisov\u00e1na jako \u201eva\u0159en\u00e1 \u017e\u00e1ba\u201c.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong><span dir=\"auto\">6. Sou\u010dasn\u00e1 evropsk\u00e1 strategick\u00e1 debata<\/span><\/strong><\/h2>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">\u010casto se rozli\u0161uj\u00ed dv\u011b hlavn\u00ed strategick\u00e9 interpretace:<\/span><\/p>\n<ol>\n<li><strong><span dir=\"auto\">Odstra\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed a pl\u00e1nov\u00e1n\u00ed pro p\u0159\u00edpad nouze:<\/span><\/strong><br \/>\n<span dir=\"auto\">Evropa se aktivn\u011b p\u0159ipravuje na konflikt s Ruskem a posiluje sv\u00e9 \u00fato\u010dn\u00e9 schopnosti.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><strong><span dir=\"auto\">\u0158\u00edzen\u00e1 eskalace:<\/span><\/strong><br \/>\n<span dir=\"auto\">Evropa se sna\u017e\u00ed ovlivnit chov\u00e1n\u00ed sv\u00e9ho protivn\u00edka a udr\u017eet z\u00e1vazek USA k evropsk\u00e9 strategii proti Rusku prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm m\u011b\u0159en\u00e9ho tlaku, v\u010detn\u011b promy\u0161len\u00fdch provokac\u00ed ve spolupr\u00e1ci s Kyjevem a mo\u017en\u00fdch operac\u00ed pod fale\u0161nou vlajkou proti Rusku.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Z\u00e1rove\u0148 je Evropa pova\u017eov\u00e1na za omezenou ve sv\u00fdch schopnostech v\u00e9st rozs\u00e1hlou v\u00e1lku bez vn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed (zejm\u00e9na americk\u00e9) podpory.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong><span dir=\"auto\">7. Jadern\u00e9 odstra\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed a \u201estrach a stabilita\u201c<\/span><\/strong><\/h2>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><span dir=\"auto\">Z\u00e1kladn\u00ed princip<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span dir=\"auto\">Jadern\u00e9 odstra\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 z\u00e1kladem strategick\u00e9 stability mezi velmocemi.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span dir=\"auto\">Stabilita z\u00e1vis\u00ed na v\u011brohodn\u00e9m odstra\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed a ochot\u011b eskalace v extr\u00e9mn\u00edch p\u0159\u00edpadech.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><span dir=\"auto\">Zm\u011bn\u011bn\u00e9 vn\u00edm\u00e1n\u00ed<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span dir=\"auto\">B\u011bhem studen\u00e9 v\u00e1lky m\u011bl jadern\u00fd strach siln\u00fd odstra\u0161uj\u00edc\u00ed \u00fa\u010dinek na v\u00e1l\u010den\u00ed.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span dir=\"auto\">V sou\u010dasnosti byla tato z\u00e1brana z velk\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1sti odstran\u011bna.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span dir=\"auto\">Sn\u00ed\u017een\u00e1 jadern\u00e1 opatrnost zvy\u0161uje riziko nebezpe\u010dn\u00fdch chybn\u00fdch v\u00fdpo\u010dt\u016f.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong><span dir=\"auto\">8. Rusk\u00e9 strategick\u00e9 my\u0161len\u00ed<\/span><\/strong><\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li><span dir=\"auto\">Odstra\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed mus\u00ed b\u00fdt psychologicky v\u011brohodn\u00e9.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span dir=\"auto\">Pokud konven\u010dn\u00ed odstra\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed sel\u017ee, lze eskalaci prov\u00e9st ve f\u00e1z\u00edch:<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ol>\n<li><span dir=\"auto\">Konven\u010dn\u00ed raketov\u00e9 \u00fatoky<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span dir=\"auto\">Region\u00e1ln\u00ed eskalace<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span dir=\"auto\">Jadern\u00e9 sign\u00e1ly jako posledn\u00ed odstra\u0161uj\u00edc\u00ed prost\u0159edek<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Jeden p\u0159\u00edstup, p\u0159ipisovan\u00fd analytikovi Sergeji Karaganovovi, zd\u016fraz\u0148uje:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span dir=\"auto\">P\u0159\u00edli\u0161n\u00e1 neochota pou\u017e\u00edt jadern\u00e9 odstra\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed by mohla ohrozit strategickou stabilitu.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span dir=\"auto\">Jadern\u00e9 zbran\u011b paradoxn\u011b funguj\u00ed jako prost\u0159edek k zabr\u00e1n\u011bn\u00ed tot\u00e1ln\u00ed v\u00e1lce prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm jasn\u00fdch limit\u016f eskalace.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong><span dir=\"auto\">9. Kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e9 riziko eskalace<\/span><\/strong><\/h2>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">\u010casto popisovan\u00fd eskala\u010dn\u00ed \u017eeb\u0159\u00ed\u010dek:<\/span><\/p>\n<ol>\n<li><span dir=\"auto\">Pokra\u010duj\u00edc\u00ed z\u00e1stupn\u00e1 v\u00e1lka a p\u0159eshrani\u010dn\u00ed \u00fatoky na civiln\u00ed c\u00edle<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span dir=\"auto\">\u00datoky na rusk\u00e9 obchodn\u00ed lod\u011b v mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edch vod\u00e1ch<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span dir=\"auto\">Eskalace odvetn\u00fdch opat\u0159en\u00ed<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span dir=\"auto\">Expanze se zam\u011b\u0159en\u00edm na evropskou vojenskou infrastrukturu a v\u00fdrobce dron\u016f dod\u00e1van\u00fdch na Ukrajinu<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span dir=\"auto\">Riziko p\u0159\u00edm\u00e9ho konfliktu mezi NATO a Ruskem<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Hlavn\u00edm rizikov\u00fdm faktorem je\u00a0<\/span><strong><span dir=\"auto\">chybn\u00fd odhad<\/span><\/strong><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0na obou stran\u00e1ch.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong><span dir=\"auto\">10. Historick\u00fd vzorec evropsko-rusk\u00e9 interakce<\/span><\/strong><\/h2>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Z tohoto pohledu se vyno\u0159uje opakuj\u00edc\u00ed se cyklus:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span dir=\"auto\">Napoleonsk\u00e9 koali\u010dn\u00ed v\u00e1lky<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span dir=\"auto\">Finan\u010dn\u00ed integrace carsk\u00e9 \u0159\u00ed\u0161e a vn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ekonomick\u00e9 vlivy<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span dir=\"auto\">Ideologick\u00e1 a zpravodajsk\u00e1 sout\u011b\u017e b\u011bhem revolu\u010dn\u00edho obdob\u00ed<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span dir=\"auto\">Studen\u00e1 v\u00e1lka: Zadr\u017eovac\u00ed struktury a jadern\u00e9 odstra\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span dir=\"auto\">Po roce 1991: Roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed NATO, sankce a ekonomick\u00e9 konflikty<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span dir=\"auto\">Sou\u010dasn\u00e1 situace: hybridn\u00ed a z\u00e1stupn\u00e9 konflikty, zejm\u00e9na v kontextu Ukrajiny<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong><span dir=\"auto\">Z\u00e1v\u011br<\/span><\/strong><\/h2>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">V pr\u016fb\u011bhu tohoto dlouh\u00e9ho historick\u00e9ho v\u00fdvoje lze evropsko-rusk\u00e9 vztahy interpretovat jako kol\u00eds\u00e1n\u00ed mezi \u010d\u00e1ste\u010dnou integrac\u00ed, konkurenc\u00ed a otev\u0159enou konfrontac\u00ed. Intelektu\u00e1ln\u00ed r\u00e1mce, jako je Mackinderova teorie Heartlandu, doktr\u00edna zadr\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed studen\u00e9 v\u00e1lky a modern\u00ed teorie odstra\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed, jsou sou\u010d\u00e1st\u00ed \u0161ir\u0161\u00ed, neust\u00e1le se vyv\u00edjej\u00edc\u00ed strategick\u00e9 tradice zam\u011b\u0159en\u00e9 na roz\u0161i\u0159ov\u00e1n\u00ed moci v eurasijsk\u00e9m regionu na \u00fakor Ruska (a \u010c\u00edny).<\/span><\/p>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">*<\/span><\/h3>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em><span dir=\"auto\">Felix Abt je podnikatel, \u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/em><em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/@lixplore\/videos\"><strong><span dir=\"auto\">cestovatelsk\u00fd blogger<\/span><\/strong><\/a><\/em><em><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0\u00a0a autor \u017eij\u00edc\u00ed v Asii na Substacku:\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/em><em><a href=\"https:\/\/felixabt.substack.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong><span dir=\"auto\">https:\/\/felixabt.substack.com<\/span><\/strong><\/a><\/em><em><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-8c57238 quelle dc-has-condition dc-condition-empty elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"8c57238\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n<h3 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\"><span style=\"font-size: 10pt;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/felixabt.substack.com\/p\/europes-long-war-with-russia-the\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\"><span dir=\"auto\">Zdroj<\/span><\/a><\/span><\/h3>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Jak\u00a0je prob\u00edhaj\u00edc\u00ed konfrontace mezi Evropou a Ruskem ur\u010dena\u00a0geografi\u00ed, alian\u010dn\u00ed politikou a struktur\u00e1ln\u00ed dynamikou soupe\u0159en\u00ed velmoc\u00ed&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":108112,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[398,22,40,365],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/108111"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=108111"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/108111\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/108112"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=108111"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=108111"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=108111"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}