{"id":108052,"date":"2026-06-03T00:25:32","date_gmt":"2026-06-02T22:25:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=108052"},"modified":"2026-06-02T13:28:50","modified_gmt":"2026-06-02T11:28:50","slug":"petr-vlk-vhled-do-zakulisi-trumpovy-iranske-politicke-kuchyne","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/06\/03\/petr-vlk-vhled-do-zakulisi-trumpovy-iranske-politicke-kuchyne\/","title":{"rendered":"Petr Vlk: Vhled do z\u00e1kulis\u00ed Trumpovy ir\u00e1nsk\u00e9 politick\u00e9 kuchyn\u011b"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Foreign\u00a0 Affairs p\u0159inesl mimo\u0159\u00e1dn\u011b\u00a0 interesantn\u00ed\u00a0 \u010dl\u00e1nek,,\u00a0 sp\u00ed\u0161e p\u0159\u00edmo pohled\u00a0 do Trumpovy\u00a0 \u00a0politick\u00e9\u00a0 kuchyn\u011b, respektive\u00a0 jej\u00ed\u00a0 ir\u00e1nsk\u00e9 sekce. Od\u00a0 n\u011bkoho,\u00a0 kdo\u00a0 tenhle prostor\u00a0 d\u016fv\u011brn\u011b\u00a0 zn\u00e1, nebo\u0165\u00a0 v n\u011bm\u00a0 dlouhodob\u011b\u00a0 p\u016fsobil.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Pro norm\u00e1ln\u00edho smrteln\u00edka je\u00a0 Trump a jeho\u00a0 chov\u00e1n\u00ed\u00a0 naprosto ne\u010diteln\u00e9,\u00a0 \u010di\u00a0 sp\u00ed\u0161e\u00a0 nepochopiteln\u00e9.\u00a0 Tenhle\u00a0 text\u00a0 ledacos\u00a0 \u00a0 objas\u0148uje. Co\u017e\u00a0 neznamen\u00e1,\u00a0 \u017ee\u00a0 po jeho p\u0159e\u010dten\u00ed\u00a0 p\u0159estanete\u00a0 \u00a0sou\u010dasn\u00e9ho\u00a0 americk\u00e9ho prezidenta\u00a0 pova\u017eovat\u00a0 za\u00a0 \u0161\u00edlence, kter\u00fd\u00a0 u\u017e\u00a0 d\u00e1vno\u00a0 m\u011bl\u00a0 b\u00fdt\u00a0 zbaven\u00a0 sv\u00e9pr\u00e1vnosti\u2026.<\/p>\n

Why Iran Will Escalate<\/a><\/strong><\/h3>\n

podle p\u0159eklada\u010de<\/p>\n

Pro\u010d se situace v \u00cdr\u00e1nu vyhrot\u00ed<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Americk\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 \u00fadery a riziko ba\u017einy<\/strong><\/h3>\n
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Zat\u00edmco v\u00fdznamn\u00ed p\u0159edstavitel\u00e9 zahrani\u010dn\u00ed politiky sp\u011bchaj\u00ed s varov\u00e1n\u00edm p\u0159ed nebezpe\u010d\u00edm americk\u00e9ho \u00fatoku na \u00cdr\u00e1n, v B\u00edl\u00e9m dom\u011b panuje v\u0161eobecn\u00e1 d\u016fv\u011bra, \u017ee prezident Donald Trump dok\u00e1\u017ee zvl\u00e1dnout n\u00e1sledky obnoven\u00e9ho\u00a0 \u00fatoku. Tato d\u016fv\u011bra odr\u00e1\u017e\u00ed dlouhodob\u00fd vzorec, kter\u00fd formoval Trumpovo my\u0161len\u00ed. Washingtonsk\u00fd establishment zahrani\u010dn\u00ed politiky prezidenta \u010dasto\u00a0 varuje p\u0159ed n\u011bjak\u00fdm \u010dinem, kter\u00fd by poru\u0161oval normy. On ignoruje jejich rady a jde kup\u0159edu. A ne\u010del\u00ed \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fdm zjevn\u00fdm d\u016fsledk\u016fm.<\/p>\n

V roce 2018, kdy se Trump roze\u0161el s\u00a0 tehdy\u00a0 platnou americkou politikou p\u0159esunem americk\u00e9ho velvyslanectv\u00ed v Izraeli do Jeruzal\u00e9ma, jsem slou\u017eil v \u00da\u0159adu pro bl\u00edzkov\u00fdchodn\u00ed z\u00e1le\u017eitosti ministerstva zahrani\u010d\u00ed. Na\u0161i vlastn\u00ed byrokrati\u010dt\u00ed experti p\u0159edpov\u00eddali, \u017ee tento krok vyvol\u00e1 rozs\u00e1hl\u00e9 protesty a n\u00e1sil\u00ed proti americk\u00fdm zam\u011bstnanc\u016fm, a my jsme z\u0159\u00eddili pracovn\u00ed skupiny a evakua\u010dn\u00ed pl\u00e1ny pro soudn\u00fd den, kter\u00fd nikdy nep\u0159i\u0161el.<\/p>\n

Tato dynamika se opakovala loni v \u010dervnu, kdy se Trump p\u0159ipojil k izraelsk\u00fdm \u00fader\u016fm na \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fd jadern\u00fd program. Analytici varovali, \u017ee toto rozhodnut\u00ed spust\u00ed \u0161ir\u0161\u00ed v\u00e1lku a urychl\u00ed \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fd jadern\u00fd pr\u016flom. Op\u011bt se toho moc nestalo.<\/p>\n

Kdy\u017e administrativa v lednu sesadila venezuelsk\u00e9ho prezidenta Nicol\u00e1se Madura, experti trvali na tom, \u017ee jeho zem\u011b a dokonce i cel\u00fd region se propadnou do chaosu, ale nic takov\u00e9ho se zat\u00edm nenastalo.<\/p>\n

Je snadn\u00e9 pochopit, pro\u010d dnes\u00a0\u00a0by si Trump\u00a0<\/a>myslel, \u017ee varov\u00e1n\u00ed p\u0159ed dal\u0161\u00edm \u00fatokem na \u00cdr\u00e1n jsou p\u0159ehnan\u00e1 a \u017ee m\u016f\u017ee zopakovat sv\u016fj vzorec rozhodn\u00e9ho \u010dinu a \u010dist\u00e9ho odchodu. Tentokr\u00e1t je to ale jin\u00e9. Str\u00e1vil jsem 18 let prac\u00ed na \u00cdr\u00e1nu v r\u016fzn\u00fdch funkc\u00edch americk\u00e9 vl\u00e1dy, v\u010detn\u011b \u0159editele pro Ir\u00e1n\u00a0 za\u00a0 prezidenta Joea Bidena a pokra\u010doval\u00a0 jako \u010dlen Trumpova vyjedn\u00e1vac\u00edho t\u00fdmu na ja\u0159e a v l\u00e9t\u011b 2025.<\/p>\n

Z t\u00e9to zku\u0161enosti vid\u00edm, \u017ee Trump z\u00e1sadn\u011b nech\u00e1pe, \u017ee \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e1 slabost zemi nepovede ke kapitulaci u jednac\u00edho stolu. Naopak, sou\u010dasn\u00e1 k\u0159ehkost \u00cdr\u00e1nu pouze zu\u017euje prostor pro smyslupln\u00e9 kompromisy. Trump tak\u00e9 nech\u00e1pe, \u017ee \u00cdr\u00e1n \u010del\u00ed zcela jin\u00fdm podm\u00ednk\u00e1m ne\u017e v \u010dervnu 2025, kdy se rozhodl pro deeskalaci. Isl\u00e1msk\u00e1 republika se nyn\u00ed domn\u00edv\u00e1, \u017ee Izrael a Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty hodlaj\u00ed opakovan\u011b za\u00fato\u010dit na jej\u00ed balistick\u00fd raketov\u00fd program \u2013 z\u00e1klad \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 sebeobrany \u2013 a \u017ee mus\u00ed b\u00fdt agresivn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, aby zabr\u00e1nila takov\u00e9mu neust\u00e1l\u00e9mu \u00fatoku, kter\u00fd by ji mohl zcela svrhnout.<\/p>\n

Trumpovo vlastn\u00ed chov\u00e1n\u00ed tak\u00e9 zvy\u0161uje riziko eskalace. Prezidentova st\u00e1le s\u00edl\u00edc\u00ed touha b\u00fdt vn\u00edm\u00e1n jako historick\u00fd m\u00edrotvorce ho vedla k zbyte\u010dn\u011b bin\u00e1rn\u00ed volb\u011b \u2013 donutit Teher\u00e1n k uzav\u0159en\u00ed z\u00e1sadn\u00ed nov\u00e9 dohody nebo pou\u017e\u00edt zna\u010dnou s\u00edlu. A mlhavost jeho motiv\u016f \u010din\u00ed tento bod ohniska mnohem nebezpe\u010dn\u011bj\u0161\u00edm.<\/p>\n

Zd\u00e1 se, \u017ee Trump m\u00e1 z\u00e1jem, bez konkr\u00e9tn\u00edho po\u0159ad\u00ed, demonstrovat s\u00edlu americk\u00e9 arm\u00e1dy, pos\u00edlit svou vyjedn\u00e1vac\u00ed pozici, uk\u00e1zat, \u017ee to mysl\u00ed v\u00e1\u017en\u011b, kdy\u017e v lednov\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edsp\u011bvku na Truth Social sl\u00edbil ochranu \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fdch protestuj\u00edc\u00edch, a odli\u0161it sv\u016fj p\u0159\u00edstup od p\u0159\u00edstupu prezidenta Baracka Obamy. Tato sm\u011bsice c\u00edl\u016f kontrastuje se zam\u011b\u0159en\u00edm, kter\u00e9 kladl na sv\u00e9 p\u0159edchoz\u00ed \u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u00e9 operace, a u\u010din\u00ed ho m\u00e9n\u011b p\u0159ipraven\u00fdm, pokud \u00fatok nep\u0159inese o\u010dek\u00e1vanou, rychlou kapitulaci. Celkov\u011b vzato dne\u0161n\u00ed podm\u00ednky znamenaj\u00ed, \u017ee \u00fatok Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f na \u00cdr\u00e1n by mohl v\u00e9st k ne\u010dekan\u011b smrt\u00edc\u00ed odvet\u011b \u2013 a ke\u00a0 vzniku\u00a0 mnohem del\u0161\u00edho a potenci\u00e1ln\u011b \u0161kodliv\u00e9mu konfliktu pro Washington.<\/p>\n

PAST\u00a0 DOBROTY<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Strategicky vzato nem\u00e1 Trump \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fd z\u00e1va\u017en\u00fd d\u016fvod k \u00fatoku\u00a0na \u00cdr\u00e1n\u00a0<\/a>. Teher\u00e1n je hrozbou pro bl\u00edzkov\u00fdchodn\u00ed z\u00e1jmy Washingtonu, to ano, ale nep\u0159edstavuje bezprost\u0159edn\u00ed hrozbu pro Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty. Po rozs\u00e1hl\u00fdch protestech \u00cdr\u00e1nc\u016f a jejich n\u00e1sledn\u00e9m brut\u00e1ln\u00edm masakru by trval\u00fd ekonomick\u00fd a diplomatick\u00fd tlak re\u017eim d\u00e1le oslabil, ani\u017e by riskoval otev\u0159en\u00fd konflikt.<\/p>\n

Tento prezident se v\u0161ak nespokoj\u00ed s tich\u00fdmi v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00edmi. V d\u016fsledku toho vznesl velk\u00fd a ok\u00e1zalej\u0161\u00ed po\u017eadavek. Bu\u010f \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e1 vl\u00e1da souhlas\u00ed s velkou jadernou dohodou, v n\u00ed\u017e se vzd\u00e1 ve\u0161ker\u00e9ho obohacov\u00e1n\u00ed uranu a sv\u00e9ho raketov\u00e9ho programu, nebo Washington za\u00fato\u010d\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Zah\u00e1jen\u00ed omezen\u00e9ho vojensk\u00e9ho \u00faderu na \u00cdr\u00e1n s c\u00edlem donutit jej splnit po\u017eadavky USA odpov\u00edd\u00e1 Trumpov\u011b strategii. Poskytlo by mu to osobn\u00ed pod\u00edvanou. A on evidentn\u011b chce bu\u010f pakt o kapitulaci, nebo \u0161irok\u00fd r\u00e1mec, kter\u00fd by potvrdil jeho tvrzen\u00ed, \u017ee poprv\u00e9 po n\u011bkolika tis\u00edcilet\u00edch p\u0159inesl m\u00edr na Bl\u00edzk\u00fd v\u00fdchod.<\/p>\n

\u00cdr\u00e1n\u0161t\u00ed v\u016fdci jsou v\u0161ak st\u00e1le m\u00e9n\u011b ochotni nab\u00eddnout mu velk\u00e9, symbolick\u00e9 v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed. \u00cdr\u00e1n\u0161t\u00ed vyjednava\u010di se obecn\u011b r\u00e1di zam\u011b\u0159uj\u00ed na specifika a \u00fazk\u00e9 \u00fastupky typu \u201en\u011bco\u00a0 za n\u011bco\u201c. Biden to pochopil a jako \u010dlen jeho vyjedn\u00e1vac\u00edho t\u00fdmu pro \u00cdr\u00e1n jsem str\u00e1vil nespo\u010det hodin p\u0159em\u00fd\u0161len\u00edm o tom, jak kategorizovat sankce souvisej\u00edc\u00ed s jadern\u00fdmi programy.<\/p>\n

P\u0159i posledn\u00edm\u00a0 jedn\u00e1n\u00ed se\u00a0Spojen\u00fdmi st\u00e1ty\u00a0<\/a>v \u017denev\u011b minul\u00fd t\u00fdden se ir\u00e1nsk\u00e9mu\u00a0 ministru zahrani\u010d\u00ed Abb\u00e1sovi Arag\u010d\u010d\u00edmu a\u00a0 jeho kompletn\u00edmu t\u00fdmu ofici\u00e1ln\u00edch poradc\u016f a t\u00fdmu technick\u00fdch expert\u016f, p\u0159ipraven\u00fdch, aby doladil detaily, jako je nap\u0159\u00edklad to, jak bude \u00cdr\u00e1n vyv\u00e1\u017eet sv\u00e9 z\u00e1soby uranu a kter\u00e9 americk\u00e9 sankce\u00a0 budou zru\u0161eny. postavili\u00a0 z\u00a0 americk\u00e9 strany\u00a0 pouze dva lid\u00e9.\u00a0 Trump\u00a0 vyslal\u00a0 sv\u00e9ho zvl\u00e1\u0161tn\u00edho vyslance Steva Witkoffa a\u00a0 zet\u011b Jareda Kushnera. O technick\u00e9 detaily se nestar\u00e1 ani nech\u00e1pe jejich zvl\u00e1\u0161tn\u00ed v\u00fdznam pro \u00cdr\u00e1n.<\/p>\n

Washington m\u00edsto toho po\u017eaduje rozs\u00e1hl\u00e9 ve\u0159ejn\u00e9 \u00fastupky, zat\u00edmco na opl\u00e1tku nenab\u00edz\u00ed prakticky nic konkr\u00e9tn\u00edho. John Limbert, b\u00fdval\u00fd americk\u00fd diplomat a v roce 1979 rukojm\u00ed v \u00cdr\u00e1nu, ve sv\u00e9 knize\u00a0Negotiating With Iran\u00a0<\/em>ironicky poznamenal , \u017ee \u201e\u00cdr\u00e1n se nepodd\u00e1v\u00e1 tlaku \u2013 pouze velk\u00e9mu tlaku.\u201c Poznamen\u00e1v\u00e1, jak \u00cdr\u00e1n po letech ohniv\u00e9ho vzdoru v roce 1988 p\u0159ijal poni\u017euj\u00edc\u00ed p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed s Ir\u00e1kem pod z\u00e1\u0161titou OSN pot\u00e9, co nakonec dosp\u011bl k z\u00e1v\u011bru, \u017ee pokra\u010dov\u00e1n\u00ed ni\u010div\u00e9 osmilet\u00e9 v\u00e1lky ohro\u017euje p\u0159e\u017eit\u00ed Isl\u00e1msk\u00e9 republiky. \u00cdr\u00e1n se nepodvol\u00ed velk\u00fdm po\u017eadavk\u016fm jen kv\u016fli bombardovac\u00ed kampani. A v \u0161ir\u0161\u00edm kontextu \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fd re\u017eim nepodep\u00ed\u0161e dohody, kter\u00e9 podle jeho n\u00e1zoru z\u00e1sadn\u011b podkop\u00e1vaj\u00ed jeho \u017eivotaschopnost, zejm\u00e9na bez soub\u011b\u017en\u00fdch z\u00e1ruk. Trv\u00e1n\u00ed na tom, aby \u00cdr\u00e1n zru\u0161il sv\u016fj raketov\u00fd program, jnap\u0159\u00edklad t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 jist\u011b bude ne\u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u00e9 \u2013 re\u017eim se domn\u00edv\u00e1, \u017ee raketov\u00fd program je z\u00e1kladem jeho mocensk\u00e9ho ukotven\u00ed. Trump nech\u00e1pe, \u017ee bez ohledu na to, jak slab\u00fd je \u00cdr\u00e1n nebo kolik s\u00edly Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty nasad\u00ed, nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed v\u016fdce Al\u00ed Chamene\u00ed nikdy dobrovoln\u011b nebude vyjedn\u00e1vat o konci Isl\u00e1msk\u00e9 republiky. Rad\u011bji by zem\u0159el jako mu\u010dedn\u00edk.<\/p>\n

\u00cdr\u00e1n\u0161t\u00ed vyjednava\u010di maj\u00ed nyn\u00ed sp\u00ed\u0161e men\u0161\u00ed flexibilitu ne\u017e p\u0159ed rokem. V t\u00e9to chv\u00edli m\u011bl Chamene\u00ed povolit sv\u00fdm vyjedn\u00e1vac\u00edm partner\u016fm, aby se odklonili od sv\u00e9ho tradi\u010dn\u00edho p\u0159\u00edstupu a nab\u00eddli Trumpovi zd\u00e1n\u00ed velk\u00e9ho v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed. P\u0159ed \u0161esti t\u00fddny samotn\u00e1 skute\u010dnost, \u017ee Trump nedodr\u017eel sv\u016fj slib odvety jm\u00e9nem \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fdch protestuj\u00edc\u00edch a nab\u00eddl jedn\u00e1n\u00ed, vytvo\u0159ila pro Teher\u00e1n obrovskou p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitost. Teher\u00e1n v\u0161ak tuto p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitost promarnil, kdy\u017e odm\u00edtl prvn\u00ed n\u00e1vrh Trumpovy administrativy \u2013 region\u00e1ln\u00ed summit ministr\u016f zahrani\u010d\u00ed v Istanbulu, kter\u00fd se mohl natolik li\u0161it od Obamova vyjedn\u00e1vac\u00edho r\u00e1mce, \u017ee by Trumpovi poskytl politick\u00e9 kryt\u00ed. \u00cdr\u00e1n se prost\u011b nedok\u00e1zal p\u0159im\u011bt k tomu, aby si Trump zachr\u00e1nil tv\u00e1\u0159 a dos\u00e1hl symbolick\u00e9ho v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed. Ve skute\u010dnosti je Chamene\u00ed stejn\u011b posedl\u00fd zd\u00e1n\u00edm \u00fasp\u011bchu\u00a0 jako Trump a st\u00e1le v\u00edce se sna\u017e\u00ed vyhov\u011bt sv\u00fdm nejtvrd\u0161\u00edm p\u0159\u00edznivc\u016fm. Znemo\u017enil sv\u00e9mu vyjedn\u00e1vac\u00edmu t\u00fdmu nab\u00eddnout i drobn\u00e9 kompromisy, nato\u017e takov\u00e9 velk\u00e9 \u00fastupky, jak\u00e9 Trump po\u017eaduje.<\/p>\n

BOD, OD KTER\u00c9HO NEN\u00cd N\u00c1VRATU<\/strong><\/h3>\n

\u00cdr\u00e1n v\u00ed, \u017ee nem\u016f\u017ee vyhr\u00e1t p\u0159\u00edmou v\u00e1lku se Spojen\u00fdmi st\u00e1ty ani s\u00a0Izraelem\u00a0<\/a>. Teoreticky by Teher\u00e1n, pokud Trump ude\u0159\u00ed, ud\u011blal nejl\u00e9pe, kdyby se sna\u017eil o rychlou deeskalaci \u2013 jak to ud\u011blal s Izraelem v dubnu a \u0159\u00edjnu 2024 a s ob\u011bma zem\u011bmi v \u010dervnu 2025. \u00cdr\u00e1n v\u0161ak nyn\u00ed \u010del\u00ed velmi odli\u0161n\u00e9 situaci ne\u017e tehdy. Dnes Izrael i Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty vn\u00edmaj\u00ed \u00cdr\u00e1n jako pap\u00edrov\u00e9ho tygra. Proxy\u00a0 milice, kter\u00e9 \u00cdr\u00e1n po l\u00e9ta pou\u017e\u00edval k odstra\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed Izraele a terorizaci Bl\u00edzk\u00e9ho v\u00fdchodu, byly z velk\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1sti neutralizov\u00e1ny.<\/p>\n

Jeho jadern\u00fd program je v trosk\u00e1ch. Jeho protivzdu\u0161n\u00e1 obrana je v zni\u010dena: \u010dervnov\u00e9 \u00fadery devastovaly v\u011bt\u0161inu jeho stanovi\u0161\u0165 raket zem\u011b-vzduch a prorazily obrovsk\u00e9 d\u00edry v jeho radarov\u00e9 s\u00edti v\u010dasn\u00e9ho varov\u00e1n\u00ed. A v prosinci se izraelsk\u00fd premi\u00e9r Benjamin Netanjahu vydal do Mar-a-Lago a z\u00edskal Trumpovo svolen\u00ed k \u00fatoku na \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fd program balistick\u00fdch raket, kter\u00fd je z\u00e1kladem obrany zem\u011b, v \u010dase a na m\u00edst\u011b, kter\u00e9 si Netanjahu zvol\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Tento v\u00fdvoj ohro\u017euje samotnou existenci Isl\u00e1msk\u00e9 republiky. Raketov\u00fd program je jedin\u00fdm zb\u00fdvaj\u00edc\u00edm prost\u0159edkem, jak \u00cdr\u00e1n m\u016f\u017ee\u00a0 hrozit\u00a0 Izraeli. (\u00cdr\u00e1n si tyto rakety tak\u00e9 v\u011bt\u0161inou vyr\u00e1b\u00ed doma, tak\u017ee Izrael by musel na \u00cdr\u00e1n \u00fato\u010dit p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b ka\u017ed\u00fdch \u0161est m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f, aby udr\u017eel arzen\u00e1l dostate\u010dn\u011b v degradovan\u00e9m stavu.)<\/p>\n

Nejasnost Trumpov\u00fdch sou\u010dasn\u00fdch z\u00e1m\u011br\u016f tak\u00e9 m\u011bn\u00ed \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fd kalkul. Americk\u00fd prezident nehroz\u00ed \u00fatokem na \u00cdr\u00e1n kv\u016fli bezprost\u0159edn\u00ed hrozb\u011b ani v reakci na jak\u00fdkoli akt \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 agrese. Jeho motivy jsou r\u016fzn\u00e9 a nejasn\u00e9: je zklam\u00e1n pokrokem v jedn\u00e1n\u00edch, c\u00edt\u00ed se nucen br\u00e1nit \u010dervenou linii, kterou nastolil sv\u00fdm p\u0159\u00edsp\u011bvkem na Truth Social, zoufale se sna\u017e\u00ed vyhnout nelichotiv\u00e9mu srovn\u00e1n\u00ed s Obamou a v\u011b\u0159\u00ed, \u017ee m\u016f\u017ee podniknout velk\u00e9 operace s minim\u00e1ln\u00edmi n\u00e1sledky.<\/p>\n

Z \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9ho pohledu se zd\u00e1, \u017ee Izrael i Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty dosp\u011bly k z\u00e1v\u011bru, \u017ee mohou ude\u0159it bez jak\u00e9koli p\u0159\u00edm\u00e9 provokace, a pokud tak u\u010din\u00ed, poslou\u017e\u00ed to dom\u00e1c\u00edm politick\u00fdm pot\u0159eb\u00e1m; \u00cdr\u00e1n si dokonce mysl\u00ed, \u017ee ob\u011b zem\u011b budou v poku\u0161en\u00ed \u00fato\u010dit \u010dasto. \u00cdr\u00e1n\u0161t\u00ed p\u0159edstavitel\u00e9 proto maj\u00ed pocit, \u017ee mus\u00ed Trumpovi d\u00e1t do\u00a0 nosu\u00a0 a\u017e mu\u00a0 z n\u011bj pote\u010de\u00a0 krev, jinak budou neust\u00e1le v ohro\u017een\u00ed.<\/p>\n

V projevu minul\u00fd t\u00fdden\u00a0Chamene\u00ed\u00a0<\/a>pohrozil potopen\u00edm americk\u00e9 letadlov\u00e9 lodi a uzav\u0159en\u00edm Hormuzsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu. Vzhledem k sou\u010dasn\u00e9mu hromad\u011bn\u00ed americk\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edtomnosti v regionu je nepravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9, \u017ee by Teher\u00e1n ud\u011blal n\u011bjakou\u00a0 z t\u011bchto v\u011bc\u00ed. Snadn\u011bji by v\u0161ak mohl zp\u016fsobit americk\u00e9 ztr\u00e1ty. Zab\u00edjen\u00ed Ameri\u010dan\u016f m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt obzvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b l\u00e1kavou mo\u017enost\u00ed: \u00edr\u00e1n\u0161t\u00ed v\u016fdci si pamatuj\u00ed, \u017ee v roce 1983 americk\u00fd prezident Ronald Reagan st\u00e1hl v\u0161echny americk\u00e9 s\u00edly z Libanonu po sebevra\u017eedn\u00e9m bombov\u00e9m \u00fatoku na kas\u00e1rna n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed p\u011bchoty, kter\u00fd \u00cdr\u00e1n podpo\u0159il, p\u0159esto\u017ee zpo\u010d\u00e1tku tvrdil, \u017ee se terorismem nezastra\u0161\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty maj\u00ed zhruba 40 000 voj\u00e1k\u016f rozm\u00edst\u011bn\u00fdch na 13 region\u00e1ln\u00edch z\u00e1kladn\u00e1ch, nepo\u010d\u00edtaje v to v\u00fdznamnou n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed a leteckou s\u00edlu, kterou ned\u00e1vno nasadily na Bl\u00edzk\u00fd v\u00fdchod. \u00cdr\u00e1nsk\u00fd velvyslanec p\u0159i OSN 19. \u00fanora varoval organizaci, \u017ee pokud by byla zem\u011b napadena, v\u0161echny bl\u00edzk\u00e9 \u201ez\u00e1kladny, za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed a prost\u0159edky nep\u0159\u00e1telsk\u00fdch sil\u2026 by se staly legitimn\u00edmi c\u00edli\u201c. P\u0159esto\u017ee region\u00e1ln\u00ed z\u00e1stupci Teher\u00e1nu jsou oslabeni, ir\u00e1ck\u00e9 a h\u00fat\u00edjsk\u00e9 milice st\u00e1le maj\u00ed schopnost p\u0159isp\u011bt k jak\u00e9koli \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 reakci.<\/p>\n

Podle pr\u016fzkumu spole\u010dnosti Quinnipiac z poloviny ledna se 70 procent Ameri\u010dan\u016f \u2013 a tak\u00e9 v\u011bt\u0161ina republik\u00e1n\u016f \u2013 stav\u00ed proti vojensk\u00e9 intervenci v \u00cdr\u00e1nu. Trump bude m\u00edt probl\u00e9m ospravedlnit jak\u00e9koli americk\u00e9 \u00famrt\u00ed v konfliktu, kter\u00fd s\u00e1m zp\u016fsobil. \u00cdr\u00e1n by tak\u00e9 mohl zintenzivnit sv\u00e9 raketov\u00e9 \u00fatoky na izraelsk\u00e9 civiln\u00ed c\u00edle, co\u017e by zat\u00ed\u017eilo obrann\u00e9 schopnosti Izraele a\u00a0 donutilo Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty, aby investovaly zdroje do posilov\u00e1n\u00ed sv\u00e9ho spojence.<\/p>\n

Teher\u00e1n by se kone\u010dn\u011b mohl zam\u011b\u0159it na glob\u00e1ln\u00ed toky ropy a mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed lodn\u00ed dopravu, co\u017e by zv\u00fd\u0161ilo ceny energi\u00ed a vytvo\u0159ilo pro Trumpa v\u00e1\u017enou politickou krizi. \u00cdr\u00e1n by mohl povzbudit H\u00fat\u00ede k obnoven\u00ed \u00fatok\u016f na lod\u011b pluj\u00edc\u00ed p\u0159es Rud\u00e9 mo\u0159e. Isl\u00e1msk\u00e9 revolu\u010dn\u00ed gardy se tak\u00e9 p\u0159ipravuj\u00ed na selektivn\u00ed zat\u00fdk\u00e1n\u00ed nep\u0159\u00e1telsk\u00fdch lod\u00ed v Hormuzsk\u00e9m pr\u016flivu.\u00a0Pokud se konflikt se Spojen\u00fdmi st\u00e1ty prohloub\u00ed, \u00cdr\u00e1n by mohl v\u00e1\u017en\u011b zv\u00e1\u017eit p\u0159\u00edm\u00e9 zac\u00edlen\u00ed na energetickou infrastrukturu arabsk\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu.<\/strong><\/p>\n

V roce 2019, b\u011bhem Trumpovy posledn\u00ed kampan\u011b \u201emaxim\u00e1ln\u00edho tlaku\u201c, \u00cdr\u00e1n p\u0159\u00edmo za\u00fato\u010dil na sa\u00fadskoarabsk\u00e9 ropn\u00e9 za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed Abk\u00e1jk, nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed na sv\u011bt\u011b. Zd\u00e1 se, \u017ee tento \u00fatok byl navr\u017een tak, aby po\u0161kodil snadno vym\u011bniteln\u00e9 komponenty, a t\u00edm omezil dopady na glob\u00e1ln\u00ed dod\u00e1vky energie. Pokud by v\u0161ak Teher\u00e1n m\u00edsto toho za\u00fato\u010dil na infrastrukturu, o kter\u00e9 v\u00ed, \u017ee oprava by trvala d\u00e9le, v\u00fdsledky by byly mnohem\u00a0 hor\u0161\u00ed.<\/strong>\u00a0Vztahy mezi \u00cdr\u00e1nem a arabsk\u00fdmi st\u00e1ty Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu jsou nyn\u00ed siln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e tehdy, ale Teher\u00e1n v\u00ed, \u017ee v\u016fdci Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu maj\u00ed na Trumpa skute\u010dn\u00fd vliv a mohli by ho \u017e\u00e1dat, aby ustoupil, pokud by se dostali pod tlak.<\/p>\n

\u00cdr\u00e1n je mo\u017en\u00e1 slab\u00fd. St\u00e1le v\u0161ak m\u00e1 zp\u016fsoby, jak Spojen\u00fdm st\u00e1t\u016fm zp\u016fsobit skute\u010dnou bolest \u2013 a disponuje mnohem v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed motivaci k takov\u00fdm \u010din\u016fm ne\u017e d\u0159\u00edve. Pokud si Trump chce zachovat syst\u00e9m, kter\u00fd mu fungoval, bude pot\u0159ebovat jasn\u00e9 a levn\u00e9 ukon\u010den\u00ed t\u00e9to s\u00e1gy. Mocn\u00e9 s\u00edly, a\u0165 u\u017e v n\u011bm samotn\u00e9m, nebo mimo n\u011bj, ho v\u0161ak vedly k tomu, aby odm\u00edtl mnoho cest, kter\u00e9 ji\u017e mohl\u00a0 vyu\u017e\u00edt. Jest\u0159\u00e1bi, jako je sen\u00e1tor Lindsey Graham, nal\u00e9haj\u00ed na Trumpa, aby \u201enemluvil jako Reagan a nechoval se jako Obama\u201c, co\u017e je srovn\u00e1n\u00ed, kter\u00e9 Trump nen\u00e1vid\u00ed a kter\u00e9ho se boj\u00ed. M\u016f\u017ee se zd\u00e1t nepravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9, \u017ee by Trump, kter\u00fd sv\u00fdm voli\u010d\u016fm\u00a0 sl\u00edbil konec v\u011b\u010dn\u00fdch v\u00e1lek, odstranil dal\u0161\u00ed \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 v\u016fdce nebo nasadil pozemn\u00ed jednotky ke zm\u011bn\u011b re\u017eimu a budov\u00e1n\u00ed n\u00e1roda. P\u0159esto se dostal a\u017e tak daleko. Je docela mo\u017en\u00e9, \u017ee bude tla\u010den vp\u0159ed, bez ohledu na cenu,\u00a0 kterou zaplat\u00ed.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Autor:<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n
NATE SWANSON\u00a0<\/span>je rezidentn\u00ed seniorn\u00ed v\u011bdeck\u00fd pracovn\u00edk a \u0159editel projektu \u00cdr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 strategie v Atlantick\u00e9 rad\u011b. V letech 2022 a\u017e 2025 byl \u0159editelem pro \u00cdr\u00e1n v Rad\u011b n\u00e1rodn\u00ed bezpe\u010dnosti. Na ja\u0159e a v l\u00e9t\u011b 2025 p\u016fsobil v \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9m vyjedn\u00e1vac\u00edm t\u00fdmu Trumpovy administrativy.<\/div>\n
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