{"id":107929,"date":"2026-06-02T00:18:28","date_gmt":"2026-06-01T22:18:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=107929"},"modified":"2026-06-01T12:36:08","modified_gmt":"2026-06-01T10:36:08","slug":"larry-c-johnson-trumpovy-ropne-pohadky","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/06\/02\/larry-c-johnson-trumpovy-ropne-pohadky\/","title":{"rendered":"Larry C. Johnson: Trumpovy ropn\u00e9 poh\u00e1dky"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n
\n
\n

Donald Trump opakovan\u011b prohla\u0161oval, \u017ee Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty produkuj\u00ed v\u00edce ropy ne\u017e Rusko a Sa\u00fadsk\u00e1 Ar\u00e1bie dohromady. Toto prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed u\u010dinil n\u011bkolikr\u00e1t v roce 2026 a \u010dasto to zd\u016fraz\u0148oval jako d\u016fsledek sv\u00e9 politiky \u201evr\u0165, zlato, vrt\u201c. Je tu jen jeden mal\u00fd probl\u00e9m\u2026 nen\u00ed to tak \u00fapln\u011b pravda.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Podle americk\u00e9ho \u00da\u0159adu pro energetick\u00e9 informace (EIA) se produkce ropy v USA v roce 2025 zv\u00fd\u0161ila o 3 %, tj. o 350 000 barel\u016f denn\u011b, a dos\u00e1hla tak nov\u00e9ho ro\u010dn\u00edho rekordu produkce 13,6 milionu barel\u016f denn\u011b. Produkce ropy v Sa\u00fadsk\u00e9 Ar\u00e1bii se p\u0159ed uzav\u0159en\u00edm Hormuzsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu 28. \u00fanora pohybovala kolem 10,086 milionu barel\u016f denn\u011b, co\u017e p\u0159edstavuje m\u00edrn\u00fd n\u00e1r\u016fst oproti 10,073 milionu barel\u016f denn\u011b v prosinci 2025. A Rusko? V roce 2025 Rusko produkovalo 9,1\u20139,3 milionu barel\u016f denn\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n

Trumpovo tvrzen\u00ed je technicky spr\u00e1vn\u00e9 pouze tehdy, pokud zapo\u010d\u00edt\u00e1me v\u0161echny ropn\u00e9 kapaliny \u2013 tedy ropu a kapaliny ze zemn\u00edho plynu, jako je etan, propan, butan, a tak\u00e9 zisky z rafin\u00e9ri\u00ed a dal\u0161\u00ed kapaliny. S touto \u0161irokou definic\u00ed lze p\u0159esn\u011b \u0159\u00edci, \u017ee USA produkuj\u00ed celkem 23\u201324 milion\u016f barel\u016f denn\u011b, ve srovn\u00e1n\u00ed s kombinovanou produkc\u00ed Ruska a Sa\u00fadsk\u00e9 Ar\u00e1bie, kter\u00e1 \u010din\u00ed 21\u201322 milion\u016f barel\u016f denn\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ale tady je probl\u00e9m\u2026 USA NEJSOU energeticky nez\u00e1visl\u00e9. Doporu\u010duji v\u00e1m sledovat rozhovor mezi Dannym Davisem a Artem Bermanem (klikn\u011bte\u00a0<\/span>zde<\/span><\/a>\u00a0). Kdy\u017e se Trump chlub\u00ed, \u017ee USA jsou nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edm producentem ropy na sv\u011bt\u011b, vypr\u00e1v\u00ed zav\u00e1d\u011bj\u00edc\u00ed p\u0159\u00edb\u011bh. Je pravda, \u017ee USA produkuj\u00ed obrovsk\u00e9 mno\u017estv\u00ed ropy, ale typ ropy, kterou produkuj\u00ed, pln\u011b neodpov\u00edd\u00e1 tomu, co jejich rafin\u00e9rsk\u00e1 infrastruktura a ekonomika skute\u010dn\u011b pot\u0159ebuj\u00ed, tak\u017ee dovoz je nejen ekonomicky v\u00fdhodn\u00fd, ale i struktur\u00e1ln\u011b nezbytn\u00fd.<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Art Berman, ropn\u00fd geolog a energetick\u00fd konzultant, p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010div\u011b argumentuje, \u017ee sou\u010dasn\u00e1 glob\u00e1ln\u00ed krize dod\u00e1vek ropy \u2013 vyvolan\u00e1 p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm naru\u0161en\u00edm dod\u00e1vek v Hormuzsk\u00e9m pr\u016flivu v d\u016fsledku prob\u00edhaj\u00edc\u00ed v\u00e1lky mezi USA, Izraelem a \u00cdr\u00e1nem \u2013 se rychle nevy\u0159e\u0161\u00ed. P\u0159edkl\u00e1d\u00e1 realistick\u00fd, datov\u011b podlo\u017een\u00fd pohled, kter\u00fd je v p\u0159\u00edkr\u00e9m kontrastu s optimistick\u00fdmi prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00edmi Trumpovy administrativy o produkci a cen\u00e1ch ropy v USA.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pot\u011b\u0161ilo m\u011b, \u017ee Berman uv\u00e1d\u00ed stejn\u00fd argument, jak\u00fd uv\u00e1d\u00edm j\u00e1 od uzav\u0159en\u00ed Hormuzsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu: toti\u017e \u017ee uzav\u0159en\u00ed\/blok\u00e1da (prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm t\u011b\u017eby, \u00fatok\u016f a akc\u00ed USA) odstranila obrovsk\u00e9 mno\u017estv\u00ed ropy ze sv\u011btov\u00e9ho trhu (p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 20 % n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed dopravy). To je \u0161ok bez historick\u00e9ho precedentu a bez jednoduch\u00e9ho nebo rychl\u00e9ho \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed. Z\u00e1soby se rychle vy\u010derp\u00e1vaj\u00ed a opo\u017ed\u011bn\u00e9 \u00fa\u010dinky se v nadch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00edch m\u011bs\u00edc\u00edch siln\u011b projev\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nejzaj\u00edmav\u011bj\u0161\u00ed \u010d\u00e1st\u00ed Bermanovy anal\u00fdzy bylo jeho tvrzen\u00ed, \u017ee na rozd\u00edl od Trumpov\u00fdch tvrzen\u00ed nejsou USA energeticky nez\u00e1visl\u00e9, pokud jde o ropu. Produkce b\u0159idlicov\u00e9 ropy v USA se skl\u00e1d\u00e1 p\u0159ev\u00e1\u017en\u011b z lehk\u00e9, sladk\u00e9 ropy (n\u00edzk\u00e1 hustota, n\u00edzk\u00fd obsah s\u00edry). Americk\u00e1 rafin\u00e9rsk\u00e1 infrastruktura \u2013 zejm\u00e9na masivn\u00ed rafin\u00e9rsk\u00fd komplex na pob\u0159e\u017e\u00ed Mexick\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu \u2013 v\u0161ak byla vybudov\u00e1na a optimalizov\u00e1na p\u0159ed des\u00edtkami let pro zpracov\u00e1n\u00ed t\u011b\u017ek\u00e9, kysel\u00e9 ropy. Z tohoto d\u016fvodu mus\u00ed USA dov\u00e1\u017eet t\u011b\u017ekou ropu z Kanady, Mexika, Venezuely, Sa\u00fadsk\u00e9 Ar\u00e1bie a dal\u0161\u00edch zem\u00ed, aby z\u00e1sobovaly sv\u00e9 st\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00ed rafinerie, zat\u00edmco svou lehkou b\u0159idlicovou ropu vyv\u00e1\u017eej\u00ed do Asie a Evropy.<\/span><\/p>\n

USA jsou siln\u011b z\u00e1visl\u00e9 na t\u011b\u017ek\u00e9, kysel\u00e9 rop\u011b kv\u016fli \u00fast\u0159edn\u00ed roli, kterou v americk\u00e9 ekonomice hraje nafta. Americk\u00e1 ekonomika je siln\u011b zalo\u017eena na naft\u011b, kter\u00e1 se nejl\u00e9pe z\u00edsk\u00e1v\u00e1 z t\u011b\u017ek\u00e9 ropy. N\u00e1kladn\u00ed automobily, vlaky, zem\u011bd\u011blsk\u00e9 stroje, stavebn\u00ed stroje a topn\u00fd olej pro dom\u00e1cnosti na severov\u00fdchod\u011b USA jsou z\u00e1visl\u00e9 na destila\u010dn\u00edch palivech vyroben\u00fdch z t\u011b\u017ek\u00e9 ropy. Vzhledem k tomu, \u017ee americk\u00e1 b\u0159idlicov\u00e1 ropa neprodukuje dostatek t\u011b\u017ek\u00fdch frakc\u00ed k uspokojen\u00ed dom\u00e1c\u00ed popt\u00e1vky po naft\u011b, je na\u0161e ekonomika struktur\u00e1ln\u011b zraniteln\u00e1 v\u016f\u010di naru\u0161en\u00ed \u2013 dovoz z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 struktur\u00e1ln\u011b nezbytn\u00fd bez ohledu na to, kolik lehk\u00e9 ropy se vyprodukuje.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tato skute\u010dnost vrh\u00e1 nov\u00e9 sv\u011btlo na Trumpovu lednovou invazi do Venezuely. V b\u0159eznu 2025 se Sa\u00fadsk\u00e1 Ar\u00e1bie um\u00edstila s 196 000 barely denn\u011b na \u010dtvrt\u00e9m m\u00edst\u011b mezi americk\u00fdmi dodavateli ropy, za Kanadou (3,8 milionu barel\u016f denn\u011b), Mexikem (397 000 barel\u016f denn\u011b) a Venezuelou (253 000 barel\u016f denn\u011b). Od doby, kdy byl Maduro zajat, se v\u0161ak americk\u00fd dovoz venezuelsk\u00e9ho t\u011b\u017ek\u00e9ho topn\u00e9ho oleje zhruba ztrojn\u00e1sobil \u2013 z p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 99 000 barel\u016f denn\u011b v prosinci 2025 na t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 500 000+ barel\u016f denn\u011b na za\u010d\u00e1tku roku 2026 \u2013 co\u017e p\u0159edstavuje jeden z nejdramati\u010dt\u011bj\u0161\u00edch posun\u016f v dovozu americk\u00e9 ropy za posledn\u00ed roky a p\u0159\u00edmo \u0159e\u0161\u00ed d\u0159\u00edve zji\u0161t\u011bn\u00fd nedostatek v dod\u00e1vk\u00e1ch t\u011b\u017ek\u00e9ho topn\u00e9ho oleje.<\/span><\/p>\n

Vzhledem k tomuto kontextu se zd\u00e1 rozumn\u00e9 se pt\u00e1t\u2026 P\u0159edv\u00eddala Trumpova administrativa uzav\u0159en\u00ed Hormuzsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu a vyu\u017eila Madurova zajet\u00ed jako z\u00e1minku ke zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed dovozu t\u011b\u017ek\u00e9 ropy z Venezuely? To \u010dlov\u011bka nut\u00ed k zamy\u0161len\u00ed, hmm.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

\n
\n

Zdroj<\/span><\/a><\/span><\/h3>\n

 <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Donald Trump opakovan\u011b prohla\u0161oval, \u017ee Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty produkuj\u00ed v\u00edce ropy ne\u017e Rusko a Sa\u00fadsk\u00e1 Ar\u00e1bie…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":96564,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1503,8385,310,452],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/107929"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=107929"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/107929\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/96564"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=107929"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=107929"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=107929"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}