{"id":107915,"date":"2026-06-02T00:11:48","date_gmt":"2026-06-01T22:11:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=107915"},"modified":"2026-06-01T12:18:21","modified_gmt":"2026-06-01T10:18:21","slug":"andrew-korybko-francouzske-odstrasovani-vpred-vuci-rusku-zvysuje-riziko-jaderne-valky","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/06\/02\/andrew-korybko-francouzske-odstrasovani-vpred-vuci-rusku-zvysuje-riziko-jaderne-valky\/","title":{"rendered":"Andrew Korybko: Francouzsk\u00e9 \u201eodstra\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed vp\u0159ed\u201c v\u016f\u010di Rusku zvy\u0161uje riziko jadern\u00e9 v\u00e1lky"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Pl\u00e1novan\u00e9 rozm\u00edst\u011bn\u00ed jadern\u011b vyzbrojen\u00fdch letoun\u016f Rafale Franci\u00ed v Arktid\u011b, st\u0159edn\u00ed Evrop\u011b a mo\u017en\u00e1 i na Balk\u00e1n\u011b p\u0159edstavuje pro Rusko kvalitativn\u011b novou strategickou hrozbu.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Ozn\u00e1men\u00ed\u00a0<\/span>z konce dubna, \u017ee Francie a Polsko budou prov\u00e1d\u011bt pravideln\u00e1 jadern\u00e1 cvi\u010den\u00ed, o nich\u017e se analytici d\u016fvodn\u011b domn\u00edvaj\u00ed, \u017ee jsou nam\u00ed\u0159ena proti Rusku (konkr\u00e9tn\u011b Kaliningradu) a B\u011blorusku, p\u0159edstavovalo prvn\u00ed uplatn\u011bn\u00ed toho, co francouzsk\u00fd prezident Emmanuel Macron nazval \u201eodstra\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00edm vp\u0159ed\u201c. N\u00e1sledovalo po\u00a0<\/span>jeho\u00a0<\/span><\/a>projevu\u00a0<\/a>z po\u010d\u00e1tku roku, v n\u011bm\u017e p\u0159edstavil tento koncept, v podstat\u011b roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed francouzsk\u00e9ho jadern\u00e9ho de\u0161tn\u00edku nad Evropou, k n\u011bmu\u017e do\u0161lo kr\u00e1tce po vypr\u0161en\u00ed platnosti\u00a0nov\u00e9 dohody START\u00a0<\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n

List Telegraph ve sv\u00e9m \u010dl\u00e1nku \u201e\u00a0<\/span>Jak Francie zvolila jadernou variantu, aby Putina dvakr\u00e1t rozmyslela\u00a0<\/span><\/a>\u201c podrobn\u011b popsal, co m\u011bl Macron na mysli. Trysk\u00e1\u010de Rafale vyzbrojen\u00e9 taktick\u00fdmi jadern\u00fdmi zbran\u011bmi budou nasazeny nejen v Polsku, ale pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b i v Nizozemsku, Belgii, \u0158ecku, \u0160v\u00e9dsku, D\u00e1nsku a N\u011bmecku, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e v\u0161echny tyto zem\u011b projevily z\u00e1jem o jeho iniciativu \u201ep\u0159edn\u00edho odstra\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed\u201c. Den po zve\u0159ejn\u011bn\u00ed jejich \u010dl\u00e1nku Norsko\u00a0<\/span>ozn\u00e1milo\u00a0<\/span><\/a>, \u017ee se t\u00e9to iniciativy z\u00fa\u010dastn\u00ed, a pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b tak bude po\u0159\u00e1dat pravideln\u00e1 jadern\u00e1 cvi\u010den\u00ed, jako to d\u011bl\u00e1 Polsko.<\/span><\/p>\n

Taktick\u00fd aspekt jadern\u00fdch zbran\u00ed, kter\u00e9 Francie pl\u00e1nuje rozm\u00edstit na sv\u00fdch letounech Rafale po cel\u00e9 Evrop\u011b, je podle Telegraphu v\u00fdznamn\u00fd, proto\u017ee tvo\u0159\u00ed sou\u010d\u00e1st toho, co jej\u00ed jadern\u00e1 doktr\u00edna naz\u00fdv\u00e1 \u201ejadern\u00fdm varovn\u00fdm v\u00fdst\u0159elem\u201c. To se vztahuje na \u201ejednor\u00e1zov\u00fd, neobnoviteln\u00fd, omezen\u00fd jadern\u00fd \u00fader, kter\u00fd by s nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed pravd\u011bpodobnost\u00ed byl nam\u00ed\u0159en na vojensk\u00fd c\u00edl\u201c. \u00da\u010delem je vyd\u011bsit c\u00edl, kter\u00fdm je Rusko, aby zastavil vojensk\u00e9 operace a uch\u00fdlil se k v\u00fdhradn\u011b diplomatick\u00fdm prost\u0159edk\u016fm k \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed jak\u00e9hokoli sporu.<\/span><\/p>\n

D\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 je, \u017ee Rumunsko\u00a0<\/span>d\u0159\u00edve potvrdilo\u00a0<\/span><\/a>, \u017ee ho Francie pozvala k p\u0159ipojen\u00ed k iniciativ\u011b \u201eodstra\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed vp\u0159ed\u201c, ale jeho nov\u00fd prezident\u00a0<\/span>p\u0159ekvapiv\u011b odm\u00edtl\u00a0<\/span><\/a>nab\u00eddku hostit jadern\u00e9 komponenty, p\u0159esto\u017ee ji\u017e host\u00ed\u00a0<\/span>francouzsk\u00e9 jednotky\u00a0<\/span><\/a>. Pokud zm\u011bn\u00ed kurz, pak by francouzsk\u00e9 Rafaly v Norsku mohly ohrozit rusk\u00e9 arktick\u00e9 z\u00e1kladny taktick\u00fdmi jadern\u00fdmi zbran\u011bmi, ty v Polsku by mohly ohrozit z\u00e1kladny v Kaliningradu a B\u011blorusku, zat\u00edmco Rafaly s rumunskou z\u00e1kladnou by mohly ohrozit z\u00e1kladny na Krymu. To p\u0159edstavuje pro Rusko kvalitativn\u011b novou strategickou hrozbu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Na\u00a0<\/span>konven\u010dn\u00ed front\u011b by se konsolidoval\u00a0<\/span><\/a>\u201esanit\u00e1rn\u00ed kordon\u201c, kter\u00fd se buduje v arktick\u00e9 a pobaltsk\u00e9 oblasti\u00a0<\/span>pod veden\u00edm Spojen\u00e9ho kr\u00e1lovstv\u00ed\u00a0<\/span><\/a>, ve st\u0159edn\u00ed Evrop\u011b\u00a0<\/span>pod veden\u00edm Polska\u00a0<\/span><\/a>a na cel\u00e9 jej\u00ed ji\u017en\u00ed periferii\u00a0<\/span>pod veden\u00edm Turecka\u00a0<\/span><\/a>, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e tureck\u00fd vliv by se mohl roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159it i do Rumunska, jak se\u00a0<\/span>zde p\u0159edpokl\u00e1d\u00e1\u00a0<\/span><\/a>. N\u011bmecko a Polsko mezit\u00edm\u00a0<\/span>soupe\u0159\u00ed\u00a0<\/span><\/a>o vybudov\u00e1n\u00ed nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed arm\u00e1dy evropsk\u00e9ho NATO (polsk\u00e1 je\u00a0<\/span>v sou\u010dasnosti nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed\u00a0<\/span><\/a>), ale N\u011bmecko by mohlo pro Rusko p\u0159edstavovat\u00a0<\/span>hrozbu podobnou t\u00e9 z roku 1941,\u00a0<\/span><\/a>pokud se nakonec dostane do veden\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tyto trendy jsou pro Rusko neuv\u011b\u0159iteln\u011b nebezpe\u010dn\u00e9, proto\u017ee se v\u0161echny odehr\u00e1vaj\u00ed\u00a0<\/span>p\u0159\u00edmo p\u0159ed jeho prahem\u00a0<\/span><\/a>. Je\u0161t\u011b hor\u0161\u00ed je, \u017ee typicky protirusk\u00e9\u00a0<\/span>pobaltsk\u00e9 st\u00e1ty\u00a0<\/span><\/a>by se mohly t\u00edmto v\u00fdvojem osm\u011blit a bu\u010f vyvolat krizi s Ruskem, nebo otev\u0159\u00edt druhou frontu na podporu Ukrajiny, pokud by prob\u00edhaj\u00edc\u00ed konflikt n\u011bkdy po sv\u00e9m nevyhnuteln\u00e9m skon\u010den\u00ed pokra\u010doval, \u010d\u00edm\u017e by riskovaly jadernou krizi, pokud by Francie potvrdila sv\u00e9 \u201eodstra\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed vp\u0159ed\u201c v\u016f\u010di Rusku. Rusko by pak mohlo zah\u00e1jit\u00a0<\/span>prvn\u00ed jadern\u00fd \u00fader proti NATO\u00a0<\/span><\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n

Kdy\u017e Francie naposledy souhlasila s obranou evropsk\u00e9 zem\u011b, p\u0159enechala Polsko nacist\u016fm b\u011bhem \u201efale\u0161n\u00e9 v\u00e1lky\u201c, precedent nazna\u010duje, \u017ee by se to mohlo v budoucnu opakovat. Zem\u011b na\u00a0<\/span>v\u00fdchodn\u00edm k\u0159\u00eddle NATO\u00a0<\/span><\/a>, kter\u00e9 se \u00fa\u010dastn\u00ed francouzsk\u00e9 iniciativy \u201eodstra\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed vp\u0159ed\u201c, jako Polsko, jednoho dne by se mohlo st\u00e1t, \u017ee se to stane i Rumunsko, Finsko a tak\u00e9 pobaltsk\u00e9 st\u00e1ty, by si to proto m\u011bly pamatovat pro p\u0159\u00edpad, \u017ee by je napadlo vyprovokovat Rusko pod rou\u0161kou francouzsk\u00e9ho jadern\u00e9ho de\u0161tn\u00edku.<\/span><\/p>\n

Andrew Korybko, PhD<\/a><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Pl\u00e1novan\u00e9 rozm\u00edst\u011bn\u00ed jadern\u011b vyzbrojen\u00fdch letoun\u016f Rafale Franci\u00ed v Arktid\u011b, st\u0159edn\u00ed Evrop\u011b a mo\u017en\u00e1 i na…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":107916,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,130,9790,22,40],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/107915"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=107915"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/107915\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/107916"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=107915"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=107915"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=107915"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}