{"id":107753,"date":"2026-05-30T04:42:28","date_gmt":"2026-05-30T02:42:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=107753"},"modified":"2026-05-30T04:42:28","modified_gmt":"2026-05-30T02:42:28","slug":"uriel-araujo-lze-se-vyhnout-valce-mezi-evropou-a-moskvou-varovani-ruska-1941","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/05\/30\/uriel-araujo-lze-se-vyhnout-valce-mezi-evropou-a-moskvou-varovani-ruska-1941\/","title":{"rendered":"Uriel Araujo: Lze se vyhnout v\u00e1lce mezi Evropou a Moskvou? Varov\u00e1n\u00ed Ruska \u201e1941\u201c"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Zat\u00edmco N\u011bmecko prohlubuje vojenskou spolupr\u00e1ci s Ukrajinou a NATO se roz\u0161i\u0159uje v Baltsk\u00e9m mo\u0159i a Arktid\u011b, Moskva st\u00e1le \u010dast\u011bji varuje p\u0159ed obkl\u00ed\u010den\u00edm. Snaha kontinentu o militarizaci p\u0159ich\u00e1z\u00ed v dob\u011b, kdy se samotn\u00e9 USA zdaj\u00ed b\u00fdt m\u00e9n\u011b oddan\u00e9 bezpe\u010dnostn\u00edmu b\u0159emenu Evropy. Vyhl\u00eddka na \u0161ir\u0161\u00ed konflikt se ji\u017e nezd\u00e1 vzd\u00e1len\u00e1.<\/strong><\/p>\n

V\u00fdroky<\/span><\/a>\u00a0m\u00edstop\u0159edsedy Rady bezpe\u010dnosti Ruska Dmitrije Medved\u011bva\u00a0z po\u010d\u00e1tku tohoto m\u011bs\u00edce st\u00e1le vyvol\u00e1vaj\u00ed\u00a0<\/span>kontroverze . Varoval, \u017ee sou\u010dasn\u00e1\u00a0<\/span><\/a>militarizace<\/span><\/a>\u00a0Evropy\u00a0riskuje zopakov\u00e1n\u00ed podm\u00ednek, kter\u00e9 vedly k 22. \u010dervnu 1941, kdy nacistick\u00e9 N\u011bmecko zah\u00e1jilo operaci Barbarossa proti Sov\u011btsk\u00e9mu svazu. Medved\u011bv v p\u0159edve\u010der Dne v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed\u00a0<\/span>obvinil<\/span><\/a>\u00a0Berl\u00edn z o\u017eiven\u00ed \u201erevan\u0161istick\u00fdch\u201c tendenc\u00ed a varoval, \u017ee Moskva \u201enesm\u00ed dovolit opakov\u00e1n\u00ed\u201c takov\u00e9ho sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e.<\/span><\/p>\n

Mnoho z\u00e1padn\u00edch koment\u00e1tor\u016f, jak se dalo o\u010dek\u00e1vat, tyto pozn\u00e1mky rychle zavrhlo jako nads\u00e1zku. \u0160ir\u0161\u00ed geopolitick\u00fd kontext v\u0161ak takovou r\u00e9toriku zt\u011b\u017euje ignorov\u00e1n\u00ed. Evropa ve skute\u010dnosti proch\u00e1z\u00ed nejv\u00fdznamn\u011bj\u0161\u00edm procesem militarizace\u00a0<\/span>od studen\u00e9 v\u00e1lky<\/span><\/a>\u00a0a z\u00e1rove\u0148 prohlubuje p\u0159\u00edmou vojensko-pr\u016fmyslovou spolupr\u00e1ci s Ukrajinou. Proto v\u00fdzkumn\u00edci (jako nap\u0159\u00edklad Niamh N\u00ed Bhriain, kter\u00e1 koordinuje program TNI V\u00e1lka a pacifikace)\u00a0<\/span>tvrd\u00ed<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, \u017ee kontinent je na \u201ev\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e9 cest\u011b\u201c.<\/span><\/p>\n

Berl\u00edn, kter\u00fd po desetilet\u00ed p\u011bstoval image strategick\u00e9 zdr\u017eenlivosti, se nav\u00edc nyn\u00ed stal jedn\u00edm z hlavn\u00edch motor\u016f t\u00e9to transformace. V dubnu\u00a0<\/span>podepsaly<\/span><\/a>\u00a0N\u011bmecko a Ukrajina dohody\u00a0<\/span>t\u00fdkaj\u00edc\u00ed se<\/span><\/a>\u00a0kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fdch oblast\u00ed obrann\u00e9 spolupr\u00e1ce. Jen o n\u011bkolik t\u00fddn\u016f pozd\u011bji Kyjev a Berl\u00edn\u00a0<\/span>zah\u00e1jily<\/span><\/a>\u00a0spole\u010dnou\u00a0<\/span>iniciativu<\/span><\/a>\u00a0obrann\u00fdch technologi\u00ed \u201eState\u010dn\u00e9 N\u011bmecko\u201c, kter\u00e1 se zam\u011b\u0159uje na\u00a0<\/span>drony<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, syst\u00e9my um\u011bl\u00e9 inteligence, laserov\u00e9 technologie a v\u00fdvoj raket. Mo\u017en\u00e1 si vzpomeneme, \u017ee Berl\u00edn kdysi v\u00e1hal i s vysl\u00e1n\u00edm Kyjevu p\u0159ileb. To je tedy pom\u011brn\u011b ohromuj\u00edc\u00ed v\u00fdvoj.<\/span><\/p>\n

V \u0161ir\u0161\u00edm kontextu Evropy Brit\u00e1nie z\u00e1rove\u0148 vede \u00fasil\u00ed o konsolidaci severn\u00ed protirusk\u00e9 bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed architektury: Lond\u00fdn dokonce ned\u00e1vno ozn\u00e1mil pl\u00e1ny na vytvo\u0159en\u00ed\u00a0<\/span>mnohon\u00e1rodn\u00edch n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00edch sil<\/span><\/a>\u00a0v r\u00e1mci Spole\u010dn\u00fdch expedi\u010dn\u00edch sil, jejich\u017e c\u00edlem je v\u00fdslovn\u011b \u201eodstra\u0161it\u201c Moskvu v baltsk\u00e9m a arktick\u00e9m boji\u0161ti. Lond\u00fdn ji\u017e d\u0159\u00edve (v roce 2024) roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159il dohody o protiraketov\u00e9 obran\u011b a vojensk\u00e9 spolupr\u00e1ci\u00a0<\/span>s Estonskem<\/span><\/a>\u00a0v r\u00e1mci v\u00fdchodn\u00edho p\u0159\u00edstupu NATO.<\/span><\/p>\n

Francie rovn\u011b\u017e zp\u0159\u00edsnila vojenskou\u00a0<\/span>koordinaci<\/span><\/a>\u00a0s N\u011bmeckem i Polskem. V kombinaci s dlouho diskutovan\u00fdm projektem NATO \u201e\u00a0<\/span>vojensk\u00e9ho Schengenu<\/span><\/a>\u00a0\u201c (kter\u00fd m\u00e1 usnadnit rychl\u00fd p\u0159esun vojsk po Evrop\u011b) se na kontinentu objevuje obraz zrychluj\u00edc\u00ed se strategick\u00e9 konsolidace sm\u011b\u0159uj\u00edc\u00ed k rusk\u00fdm hranic\u00edm. Moskva to vn\u00edm\u00e1 jako obkl\u00ed\u010den\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Zaj\u00edmav\u00fdm aspektem tohoto procesu je, \u017ee se zd\u00e1, \u017ee Evropa je st\u00e1le v\u00edce ochotna p\u0159evz\u00edt roli, kterou se s\u00e1m Washington postupn\u011b sna\u017eil omezit. Ameri\u010dt\u00ed politici ji\u017e n\u011bkolik let (je\u0161t\u011b p\u0159ed Donaldem Trumpem) diskutuj\u00ed o \u201e\u00a0<\/span>p\u0159enesen\u00ed b\u0159emene<\/span><\/a>\u00a0\u201c ukrajinsk\u00e9ho konfliktu na sv\u00e9 evropsk\u00e9 spojence. Za sou\u010dasn\u00e9ho prezidentstv\u00ed Donalda Trumpa se transatlantick\u00e9 nap\u011bt\u00ed ohledn\u011b vojensk\u00fdch v\u00fddaj\u016f a strategick\u00fdch priorit samoz\u0159ejm\u011b jen zintenzivnilo. Trump opakovan\u011b tla\u010dil na evropsk\u00e9 vl\u00e1dy, aby nesly v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed \u010d\u00e1st finan\u010dn\u00edho a vojensk\u00e9ho b\u0159emene NATO. Je ironi\u00ed, \u017ee se nyn\u00ed zd\u00e1, \u017ee Evropa je dychtiv\u00e1 nejen vyhov\u011bt, ale mo\u017en\u00e1 i nadm\u011brn\u011b kompenzovat.<\/span><\/p>\n

Evropsk\u00e9 elity st\u00e1le \u010dast\u011bji hovo\u0159\u00ed o \u201estrategick\u00e9 autonomii\u201c a st\u00e1le nen\u00ed jasn\u00e9, jak\u00fdm sm\u011brem by se takov\u00e1 autonomie ub\u00edrala. Nen\u00ed jasn\u00e9, jak by kontinentu prosp\u011blo b\u00fdt z\u00e1stupcem USA proti Moskv\u011b. Evrop\u0161t\u00ed l\u00edd\u0159i nyn\u00ed ka\u017edop\u00e1dn\u011b zpochyb\u0148uj\u00ed spolehlivost z\u00e1vazk\u016f USA a z\u00e1rove\u0148 s pozoruhodn\u00fdm nad\u0161en\u00edm stup\u0148uj\u00ed vojensk\u00e9 z\u00e1vazky proti Moskv\u011b. Nen\u00ed divu, \u017ee nap\u011bt\u00ed na Ukrajin\u011b, v Baltsk\u00e9m mo\u0159i a arktick\u00e9 oblasti sou\u010dasn\u011b roste.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ned\u00e1vno jsem\u00a0<\/span>argumentoval<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, \u017ee severn\u00ed expanze NATO transformuje Baltsk\u00e9 mo\u0159e a Arktidu na propojen\u00e1 m\u00edsta konfrontace s Ruskem: vstup \u0160v\u00e9dska a Finska z\u00e1sadn\u011b zm\u011bnil strategickou geografii severn\u00ed Evropy. \u010clenstv\u00ed Finska n\u00e1sledn\u011b prom\u011bnilo Finsk\u00fd z\u00e1liv ve st\u00e1le v\u00edce militarizovan\u00fd koridor ovl\u00e1dan\u00fd st\u00e1ty NATO.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u0160v\u00e9dsko se naopak vzdalo stalet\u00ed trvaj\u00edc\u00ed neutrality, zat\u00edmco Norsko roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159ilo svou roli severn\u00edho strategick\u00e9ho koordin\u00e1tora. Britsk\u00e1 vojensk\u00e1 aktivita v Arktid\u011b se nav\u00edc\u00a0<\/span>zdvojn\u00e1sobila<\/span><\/a>\u00a0. Cvi\u010den\u00ed NATO se postupn\u011b zam\u011b\u0159uj\u00ed na sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e zahrnuj\u00edc\u00ed strategick\u00e1 \u00fazk\u00e1 m\u00edsta, jako je\u00a0<\/span>Suwalsk\u00e1 propast<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, Kaliningrad a severn\u00ed n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed koridory.<\/span><\/p>\n

Vzhledem k tomu ru\u0161t\u00ed p\u0159edstavitel\u00e9 varovali p\u0159ed mo\u017en\u00fdmi blok\u00e1dami zam\u011b\u0159en\u00fdmi na rusk\u00e9 n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed trasy a p\u0159\u00edstupov\u00e9 body. Z\u00e1padn\u00ed kritici mohou takov\u00e9 obavy zavrhnout jako \u201eruskou paranoiu\u201c. Dnes se v\u0161ak z\u00e1padn\u00ed vojensk\u00e9 pl\u00e1nov\u00e1n\u00ed otev\u0159en\u011b to\u010d\u00ed pr\u00e1v\u011b kolem \u201ezadr\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed\u201c Ruska v baltsk\u00e9m a arktick\u00e9m boji\u0161ti.<\/span><\/p>\n

V roce 2024 jsem\u00a0<\/span>tvrdil<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, \u017ee Finsk\u00fd z\u00e1liv riskoval, \u017ee se stane bodem sv\u00e1ru mezi NATO a Ruskem. V sou\u010dasnosti se toto riziko jen zv\u00fd\u0161ilo. N\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed incidenty, obvin\u011bn\u00ed ze sabot\u00e1\u017ee, zpravodajsk\u00e9 operace, v\u00e1l\u010den\u00ed dron\u016f a konflikty v oblasti sankc\u00ed neust\u00e1le vytv\u00e1\u0159ej\u00ed atmosf\u00e9ru, v n\u00ed\u017e se chybn\u00e9 odhady st\u00e1vaj\u00ed nebezpe\u010dn\u011b pravd\u011bpodobn\u00fdmi.<\/span><\/p>\n

Arktida samotn\u00e1 je nav\u00edc dal\u0161\u00edm v\u00fdznamn\u00fdm zdrojem nap\u011bt\u00ed. Ji\u017e d\u0159\u00edve jsem\u00a0<\/span>poznamenal<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, \u017ee se D\u00e1ln\u00fd sever rychle st\u00e1val jedn\u00edm z hlavn\u00edch geopolitick\u00fdch boji\u0161\u0165 stolet\u00ed, zejm\u00e9na s t\u00edm, jak Rusko a \u010c\u00edna prohlubuj\u00ed arktickou spolupr\u00e1ci. Z\u00e1padn\u00ed strat\u00e9gov\u00e9 st\u00e1le \u010dast\u011bji vn\u00edmaj\u00ed tento region jako sou\u010d\u00e1st \u0161ir\u0161\u00ed sout\u011b\u017ee o zdroje, n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed trasy a vojensk\u00e9 pozice. Moskva zase otev\u0159en\u011b interpretuje rostouc\u00ed arktickou p\u0159\u00edtomnost NATO jako p\u0159\u00edpravu na budouc\u00ed konfrontaci.<\/span><\/p>\n

D\u00e1 se v\u00e1lce je\u0161t\u011b vyhnout? Pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b ano. Ale toto okno nemus\u00ed z\u016fstat otev\u0159en\u00e9 donekone\u010dna.<\/span><\/p>\n

Sou\u010dasn\u00e1 trajektorie je hluboce nestabiln\u00ed, proto\u017ee v\u0161echny strany st\u00e1le v\u00edce jednaj\u00ed s mentalitou obl\u00e9h\u00e1n\u00ed. Evropa se domn\u00edv\u00e1, \u017ee Rusko p\u0159edstavuje existen\u010dn\u00ed hrozbu (p\u0159esto\u017ee skute\u010dn\u00e1 hrozba pro Evropu dnes poch\u00e1z\u00ed z Washingtonu, jak jsme vid\u011bli v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b\u00a0<\/span>Gr\u00f3nska<\/span><\/a>\u00a0).<\/span><\/p>\n

Rusko pak doch\u00e1z\u00ed k z\u00e1v\u011bru, \u017ee Evropa p\u0159ipravuje dlouhodob\u00e9 obkl\u00ed\u010den\u00ed a strategick\u00e9 \u0161krcen\u00ed. Mezit\u00edm se zd\u00e1, \u017ee samotn\u00e9 USA jsou m\u00e9n\u011b ochotn\u00e9 z\u016fstat pln\u011b zapojeny do evropsk\u00e9ho v\u00e1l\u010den\u00ed a z\u00e1rove\u0148 pohodln\u011b povzbuzuj\u00ed Evropany k dal\u0161\u00ed militarizaci.<\/span><\/p>\n

Je celkem jasn\u00e9, \u017ee Evropa vstupuje do velmi nebezpe\u010dn\u00e9 f\u00e1ze. Nekone\u010dn\u00e1 eskalace, roz\u0161i\u0159ov\u00e1n\u00ed severn\u00edch sil a st\u00e1le agresivn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed r\u00e9torika tak\u0159\u00edkaj\u00edc posiluj\u00ed rusk\u00e9 vn\u00edm\u00e1n\u00ed \u201eobkl\u00ed\u010den\u00ed\u201c. A velk\u00e1 \u010d\u00e1st toho se odehr\u00e1v\u00e1 v dob\u011b, kdy diplomacie z diskuse obvykle zcela miz\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

V ka\u017ed\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b st\u00e1le nen\u00ed jasn\u00e9, jak dlouhodob\u00fdm z\u00e1jm\u016fm kontinentu slou\u017e\u00ed jeho transformace v prim\u00e1rn\u00ed frontovou linii proti sousedn\u00edmu Rusku (a\u017e do bodu, kdy ho \u201ezah\u00e1n\u00ed do kouta\u201c). Sp\u00ed\u0161e se to zd\u00e1 b\u00fdt nesm\u00edrn\u011b zav\u00e1d\u011bj\u00edc\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Uriel Araujo, PhD.<\/a> v oboru antropologie, je soci\u00e1ln\u00ed v\u011bdec specializuj\u00edc\u00ed se na etnick\u00e9 a n\u00e1bo\u017eensk\u00e9 konflikty s rozs\u00e1hl\u00fdm v\u00fdzkumem geopolitick\u00e9 dynamiky a kulturn\u00edch interakc\u00ed<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Zat\u00edmco N\u011bmecko prohlubuje vojenskou spolupr\u00e1ci s Ukrajinou a NATO se roz\u0161i\u0159uje v Baltsk\u00e9m mo\u0159i a…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":107754,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,22,40],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/107753"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=107753"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/107753\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/107754"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=107753"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=107753"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=107753"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}